A German Returns To Germany Story

 WELT journalist Thomas Kielinger wrote an interesting piece today.  He's been assigned to London for 25 years, and just recently returned to full-time living in Germany.  It's worth a read if you can find a copy of the paper.

He's a bit worried, and writes a piece....detailing 'grumbling citizens', 'a fractured society', and a difficult bureaucracy that now exists.

I think for me....having been around briefly in 1978 (2 years), 1984 (2 years) and a 16 year period starting in 1993...then finally returning in 2013....it's difficult to sum up exists today in Germany.  It's not the same landscape.

You will notice an occasional project started....with some VIPs showing up and doing a shovel 'trick'....then watch a simple 2-year project turn into a screwed-up mess, with ten years spent on fixing/correcting problems.  In the end....no one much in a VIP status wants to show up and proclaim the happy conclusion.

You will step onto a fantastic ultra-modern train in the middle of summer heat (35C)....to find the AC unit marginally works,  and 30 minutes later.....you decide to halt your journey (drenched in sweat), and spend forty minutes sipping through liquids to recover from heat exhaustion.  The older trains had windows that opened and NO AC units....new ones?  No open windows....just a AC unit.

You will walk through the subway tunnels of Frankfurt....observing the drug addicts doing their morning routine.  A few syringes lay on the tile floor....which you just observe, and quicken your pace to get somewhere else.  

Some folks will note their one neighbor is consumed on environmentalism, while another neighbor is almost a Nazi-lite character....so you simply nod on commentary....never taking anything serious from either.

You quietly look around and easily note that a quarter of society is now pretty screwed on living conditions, no real fallback position, and living paycheck-to-paycheck.  Guy/gals who retired five years ago....live near the edge, and often recount the glory years when the Deutsche Mark existed.

You note some die-hard kids are all consumed to block traffic and save the planet....yet their reasoning and explanations seem a bit brain-washed.

You notice at times....wolves in your woods, and nobody seeming to be concerned....as if the landscape is on pause....waiting for some old gal or some kids named Hansel/Greta....to get dragged off for dinner with a wolf.

You sit back in a recliner for the 8:13 PM weather forecast....with the German guy talking over a bright intense red color and hyping up that 32 C (90 F) is enough to dissolve plastic and ceramic things.  You know it's not so, but you just entertain the thought that 32 C seems intense to some folks.

In the pub, a discussion starts up about corruption, and over an hour....twenty different scenes are described at the local, state  and national level.  You don't really care, because it didn't involve your co-workers or friends.

Your TV viewing?  Mostly some fake reality TV show, with a big-boobed gal uttering some common sense phrases occasionally....a camper situation in Italy where they spend an hour working a birthday party for some retired German guy....and some poverty situation in Mannheim where you get to know two-dozen bad-off Germans as if they were your cousins or in-laws.  

At work, folks talk about such-and-such bridge which has been deemed structurally ready to collapse and suddenly closed....requiring people to add 12 minutes onto their daily journey to work.  The expert details?  It'll be 3.5 years before the bridge is torn down and completely replaced.  You do the math....that's 80 man-hours a year wasted.  Over the period of crap, you could have lounged off on some beach in Greece for six weeks.  

You ponder a group of 600-odd politicians who say one way or another....they are out to save you or improve your life.  'Jesus-figures' is what your neighbor refers to them.  You reach a point where you are skeptical of the Jesus-figures and their saving act.

The positive side approaching?  The politicians will approve some legit Cannabis situation....so you can numb up your sub-consciousness.  

Just Observations

 1.  Odds of nuke power plants coming back in Germany?

There may be chatter and maybe one-third of the public sees nothing wrong with them.  But it'd take a major shake-up where you have ten days over six months where you have no electrical power because of confusing priorities in the German grid.  At that point, the question will be....do you bring back coal-fired plants or nuke plants?

At the heart of the matter?  I think a lot of Germans look at the glory-period....1970s, 1980s, 1990s....and how you just had a 2-hour outage of electrical power every six months or so.  Things were cost-effective, stable and dependable.  

2.  These Meseberg meeting results for Scholz and the coalition?

Basically, Scholz wants everyone reading off the same script and hyped-up to sell the coalition 'brand'.  For the past 12 months, they've done  crappy job, and there's nothing much to indicate the meeting this week changed anything.

3.  Georgia and Moldovia declared 'safe' states by the German gov't?

Well...if you come from one of these two and ask for asylum....the Germans can now say 'NO'.  To be honest, I doubt if you had more than 500 a year come in from the two....asking for asylum in Germany.  Gov't even indicates from the bulk list of 2023 asylum seekers.....the two represent .1 percent of the total....from the two states.

4.  Chatter on rent 'brakes' across the country of Germany?

SPD chatter indicates some kind of federal 'law' or regulation.....to limit how much you can raise the rent in any one year.  The odd part of this discussion is that where you have the problem is in large metropolitan areas of the country, with minimal housing construction going on.

5.  Is the CDU Party (right-of-center) in trouble with increasing numbers of the public wanting a further right agenda?

There is a public discussion going on and some journalists believe this story.  

I would be more likely to believe that the pendulum has swung a bit far to the left in the past decade, and this is a public reaction wanting a counter-balance, and  being just plain right-of-center....is not enough.  This brings up that Merkel vision of leading the CDU to center-center politics, and leaving the more conservative voters without any serious attention (giving the AfD Party opportunities).

This 'Kiss' Scandal In Spain

 It's an odd story to tell.

On the 20th of August....the women's team of Spain beat the UK women's team....1-0....to win the women's World Cup for 2023.

So they fly back into Spain, and everyone is all pepped-up (at least women are).

Then there's this VIP episode where the top brass are all going shake hands and hug after some positive chatter.

In the midst of this hug-stuff....Spanish Football Federation President Luis Rubiales ...did some mouth-to-mouth kiss with one of the gal players of Spain.

I've sat and watched the video of this at least twenty times.  I'm not authority on hugs or kisses, but I'd say that he went to the intense level (maybe on a 1-to-10 scale.....up to a '7').  If he'd extended the tongue....I'd say it was all over, but he stopped at that point.

So things are heated, and he is suspended from his job over this.

If you stood around Madrid and asked 100 women....very likely that all 100 have an opinion, and that 99 of them are pretty harsh on Rubiales.  I'd suggest that a quarter of them would like to have the guy in some jail-house situation.  

My own humble opinion?  It wouldn't shock me if he'd had five or six shots of something before the ceremony and the booze was triggering him to be this stupid.

The funny thing?  Well.....the kiss scandal is now a bigger deal than the women's team winning the FIFA women's competition.  

Five German News Stories

 1.  Some estimate given now (Green Party) on how much poverty kids in Germany might get under the new program....to ensure they weren't in some poverty class.  Amount?  Runs from 530 Euro for a young kid....up to 636 Euro for a teenager....per month.

How they'd go out and spend it?  Anyone's guess.  I don't get the impression that a lot of thought has been put into this idea.  

Enough support to pass?  No one seems that sure.

2.  Weather guys are suggesting a brief return to summer temperatures this weekend.  For  my area.....maybe up to 27 C  (81 F).  For me, I don't consider that warm.  

3.  Interesting article in WELT this AM....Alan Posner wrote a piece to suggest it's time to pick up privatization of German schools. 

It's also next to another WELT piece going over 'alarming findings' chatter where test scores are down, and integration issues are discussed.  

4.   Major accident on the A2 up around Hannover.  About a 1-km area is closed off, and probably won't re-open until Saturday.  Other side of the autobahn (toward Berlin) is open and flowing.  

5.  Paris city gov't has issued an order.....'enough' with the e-scooter accidents.  They are forbidding them in the city....saying too many injuries and accidents.  

What's With The Gabon Coup Business

 It's not yet a front-page story, but it's going to be discussed a good bit in Europe.

For 55 years....this one family held political power in Gabon.  Bongo 'Junior' ran the country for the past eight years....after his dad died (having run things for 47 years).  

Gabon is more or less...a crapped-up country that has a ton of oil wealth...that never seems to filter down past the  Presidential-level.  

That coup-attempt from five years ago?  It never went anywhere much because it just aimed at Bongo 'Junior', and got squashed as the second level came back to support the guy.  

Present situation?  There's a whole cast of folks on this attempt who've been identified and I would imagine a thousand-plus people who are finding an exit out of the country at present.

All of this enthusiasm for the Gabon coup....leading back to Niger's coup business from a month ago?  Yeah, and I would go to suggest that a dozen countries around Africa are now reviewing stability situations.  It would not shock me if another one or two countries fall apart before the end of 2023.  

Christmas Cake Already Stocked

 I was out grocery shopping last night, and there in the bakery goods area.....stood a number of Christmas cake items.  Yes, shocking enough....end of August....stuff up for sale already.

Shock?  Well...for the better quality stuff...it's probably 20-percent higher than two years ago. 

What Is The Aiwanger Scandal About?

 State election in Bavaria is coming up in four weeks.  Up to this point, it appeared that the CSU (right-of-center party) would get enough votes and avoid partnering with SPD or Greens.  They would do so by partnering with the FW party (the Free Voters party).  

If you asked me to  define them?  I'd say they are right-of-center, and mostly in Bavaria, Hessen, B-W, and the Pfalz.  Yeah, they are more dedicated to rural topics, than urban issues.  A lot of farmers support the party.

So the head guy for the FW party in Bavaria  is this guy Aiwanger.

In the late 1970s....at age 17, he was required to write a 'paper' for a school final project.  It was more to demonstrate writing a research paper than being anything of a serious nature. 

What he wrote?  It's basically a anti-Semitic piece.  I haven't read the piece, so I can't comment if it was in a serious nature or just as a joke.

I should add....there is some confusion drifting around that his brother might have written the paper.  Whether true or not....I can't be the judge.  But it adds another issue if it was the brother who wrote the piece....then it was a fraudulent grade given to this guy.  

It's reported at a critical point.  Lets say that the FW party still gets 10-percent of the vote....the pressure is now upon the CSU party to deny them a partnership because of the suggestion of the anti-Semitic chatter.  Yes, it would force some type of deal where the SPD or Greens would be the partner. 

Who goes out to find such a 35-year old document?  Well....the Suddesutche Zeitung newspaper folks.  

Will it affect voters for the FW?  A fair number of people are asking how a 35-year old document from a school project matters in 2023.    In Bavaria, I don't think it'll be a bit deal for votes.  But it'll matter for the CSU as they look for a partner for the coalition.

What Soder of the CSU party has done to reverse the issue?  In an amusing way....he's written a 25-question paper....to hand to Aiwanger, and if he answers the paper correctly.....the partnership option is still open.  

On 'drama'...where would I rate this for national BS?  One-to-ten?  I'd say it's a 'seven' at present.  

The odd prospective here?  Anything you wrote....even if in the 6th grade of school...that suggests something, is bound to be held by someone or a school, and cripple up your campaign at age 55.  

Public prospective?  Well....you bring up the Nazi-thing once again, and I'd suggest that about 50-percent of the German public is fed up with carrying the shame business.  

So for entertainment purposes.....it's worth viewing because journalists are hyped-up and thrilled to have something beyond regular politics to talk about.  

Ten Political Things About Germany That You Might Want to Know

This is a old essay that I freshened up....stuff that a non-German might want to know.

1.  The Chancellor and the President have unique and different jobs.  The President is chosen only by the Bundestag (the Parliament), not by the people.  The Chancellor is chosen by their party as the chief candidate, and you (as a voter) will cast for the party mechanism, and their Chancellor candidate.  The President is mostly around for ceremonial functions, funerals, awards, and non-political things.  The President can only run for two terms (five years each).  The cycle for the President has nothing to do with the normal campaign period.  The President is mostly non-political.  

The Chancellor is running the coalition, and can be political in nature. The President can be fired by the Bundestag (on a vote situation).  The Chancellor can be fired by their party.

2.  If a national law is noted as 'wrong', the German Supreme Court can issue a two-year directive that the Bundestag has to correct a law, rather than throwing it totally out.  In the directive, they will tell them precisely how the wording has to reflect, and then leave it to them to figure the final product out.

3.  The sixteen German states have a fair amount of control over the running of the country.  But they can only figure their budget out, via the money that comes down to them from the federal tax revenue 'machine'....using a device called the 'key' which takes statistical data and splits up the revenue pot into sixteen differing sums of money.  In recent years, Bavaria, Hessen and Baden-Wuerttemberg have hinted that the 'key' is flawed and that their states are putting more money into the pot, and they should have a bigger 'take' coming back to them.

4.  When Germans say there's a left and right in the political spectrum....do not make the mistake of thinking its similar to a US version of left and right.  The two political parties making up the chief sum of votes from 2017....figure around 55-percent total....figure into the spectrum.  The SPD is left-of-center, and the CDU-CSU Party is mostly center-center (even though they will tell you they are right-of-center in open discussions). 

5.  In a typical national election (held each four years), there are roughly forty parties in the running, and usually only six to seven that matter (getting 90-to-95 percent of the national vote.  If you get five-percent or more.....you get seats in the Bundestag.  If you get 4.99-percent, you get no seats.

6.  A coalition is typically the winner party staging discussions with one to two parties....then building a partnership up for the coalition.  The true offerings here?  The cabinet seats and departments, and agreement on future votes.  In the end, your party may end up watering down the promises made in a drastic way, and trigger serious negative views among your voters.  This method kinda prevents them from open insults like you'd see in the US. 

7.  You can conduct non-violent protests in any fashion, as long as you register the protest with the local police department, and ensure some open streets/roads are there for ambulance and fire crews to react.  If you violate local rules....it's up to the local court to decide your judgement.

8.  The national constitution is changed on a frequent basis, and was designed that way after WW II.

9.  Public TV was written into the national constitution. It cannot be sponsored or managed by the political establishment.  It is monitored and controlled by a governor's board, and taxed via a TV-media tax to the public.

10.  State elections are every five years and they are not connected to each other.  So you could have two state elections this year, six next year, one the year after, etc.

Three German News Stories

 1.  In the past year, I've cut back drastically on watch ARD's Monday night public forum show....Hart Aber Fair (Hard But Fair).  New moderator, and fairly biased....at this point.  I did catch about 20 minutes of it last night.  

It was mostly a public forum over poor people in Germany.....controlled by 'people north of Brandenburg' (yeah, there's a tune here but lets skip that).

Some mother called in and told her woeful story.....she ain't got money for this or that, and caring for her kids is a pitiful story.  Moderator tried to get the Green Party 'boss' (Lang)....one of the guests....to respond.....she couldn't say much of anything.

If the numbers are to be trusted....twenty-percent of German society in a bad state of financial affairs and 'just-living' (my phrase for it).  

2.  This Meseberg Castle meeting for the SPD-coalition coming up?  

The Chancellor needs a script for the next six months where positive things come out, and no crappy failures.  In some ways, this meeting is supposed to get the Green Party, SPD Party and FDP Party....reading off the same script.

3.  Is Berlin in a drinking-water crisis?

Well....for months, there's been this 'message' going on that maybe Berlin has a future potential drinking water problem.

So the current suggestion?  Some money would go up to the far north (coast of the Baltic)....build a desalinization plant, and then pump water 195 kilometers (more or less).  You can build these plants (medium-sized) for about 20-million Euro these days, but if you were talking a mega-plant (for Berlin), then the pipes to bring it to Berlin?  I'd be guessing a minimum of 1-billion Euro.  

A trend starting up with dozens of desalinization plants to be built?  Wouldn't shock me.  

Another Nutcase?

 Late on Sunday, around 7 PM....in the Saarland (far west part of Germany)....some French couple (in their 40s) were hiking in the woods.  

At some point, they came up upon some German guy (mid-20s) who was in some emotional breakdown event, and he attacked the French couple with a knife. 

It would appear the couple put up a fight, and some folks came upon the event.  The two were bad off, but appear to be surviving.  

Nutcase guy?  Arrested by the local police.  Investigation underway.

Yeah, I'd say it's just another demonstration on how you need to be vigilant....even when walking around in the German woods. 

UPDATE:  Oddly, the police say the knife guy was traveling via a RV, and was seriously blitzed on alcohol at the time of the episode.  

Kids Story

 A couple of months ago in Germany....some study came out and suggested that one kid out of five in Germany is on or near welfare status.....meaning they don't have money for the general basics of being a kid.

This launched some discussion within the Bundestag about how they could 'save' the kids.  Yeah, this revolves around money, and how you'd crank out x-amount, and hand it to the kid.

A lot of hype occurred over the weekend....politicians getting interviewed and asked how this would work.

At some point, I turned to my German wife and just asked.....how much money are we talking here, and she gave this blunt answer....it's probably in the range of 150 to 200 Euro a month, but they seem to all avoid saying the magic number.

This led to my next question....how would you hand this money to the kid?  My cranked out an answer and it was rather negative...asking me....would I hand 200 Euro over to some kid?  I responded....if this were my son....he'd spend the money on Netflix, video games, or wasteful crap.  Yeah was her response.....so handing the money directly to the kid is not a wise answer.

But I responded then.....you can't hand the 200 Euro over to the parent because they'd likely spend the money on beer, smokes, or Netflix.  

So she got to the FDP Finance Minister answer.....don't hand them the money.  His idea is to plow the money into better job-training programs, after-school-help, and recreation funds (free pool passes, etc).  

A whole lot of money coming up shortly?  Well....just based on how everyone wants to 'save' the youth.....yeah.

I would guess by the end of 2023....some chunk of money is going to be put into some pot and sent to individual states to operate programs to benefit kids.  

A waste?  I get the impression that in five years.....you will still have studies to show 20-percent of German kids are on the edge of welfare, and that the government ought to do something to improve their lives, again.

UPDATE: Amount of funding agreed upon....2.4-billion Euro....nationally.

The Round-About Rule

 Back in 1978, when I first came to Germany....there was this slight mention of round-abouts (traffic circles) in the German driver's training episode.  The instructor spent about five minutes going through the thrill of traffic circles, and there were probably one single question on the 100-item test relating to the circle.

For two years....around the Frankfurt region....on the rare times that I did drive beyond the base....I never encountered a single round-about.

1984 to 1986?  On my second tour?  I probably encountered about twenty round-abouts.  

From 1993 on?  It was a hit-and-miss thing....you might go a whole year and never see or experience a single one.  Sometimes you'd wander into some town and go through eight in a single day.  

I live about six miles from a small German town (12,000 residents) that has around forty-five round-abouts.  In my local city of Wiesbaden?  There might be ten in the entire city.

Lately, the cops are onto enforcing the round-about rule.....you MUST signal as you enter, and exit the round-about.  Failure to signal?  Ten Euro fine.  If you enter and go LEFT (instead of right)?  That's a 35 Euro fine.  If you park inside of the round-about (there's never room for this anyway)....it's a fifty Euro fine.

Where did round-abouts start?  Well....most folks argue in the UK....in the mid-1950s.  Some argue that the French started this in 1778.....in central Paris.  Some Germans will argue it was in Gorlitz....right around 1900.  

At some point after 2000, Ramstein (the base) went to the circles......building around twenty of them.  With the gate renovations in the past five years....there's probably another dozen thats been added.  

I'm not anti-round-about....but I'm not pro-round-about either.  

My negativity intensifies mostly when you have a two-lane (particularly if you go to a 3-lane round-about).  Your intensity of concentration bumps up a notch or two....with two lanes, and how you exit (or if you make a second or third circle....trying to get to the right lane for exit purposes).  

Around five or six years ago....there was a German story from my region....older couple (guy/gal were in their 80s) who'd planned a grocery trip....to a town that they didn't typically visit.  It's safe to say that guy driving probably didn't have full concentration of where they were going, or knew that four traffic circles were in the route.  At some point about six hours into a 45-minute trip....he pulled into a gas station and admitted he was 'stone-cold-lost' and needed some help to find his way back home.  He'd taken an exit too early, and hit another circle later that just further complicated matters (bringing him at least sixty kilometers away from his intended target).  

The intensity of building more traffic circles?  That's the rather odd thing.  If I got back to my old village around Kaiserslautern/Ramstein.....there's probably over two-hundred round-abouts which now exist.....where in the 1993 period....there were just two.  At the pace of things?  I would suggest in another decade, that a minimum of four-hundred round-abouts will exist in that one single region.  

Migrant Help In Russia

 I sat fand watched a news piece....Russian officials in a significant city (not Moscow)....had rounded up all of the legal/illegal migrants working in the city.  They gave the number of 500.  The legal guys had papers, but it didn't matter....they were being told that they were now 'qualified' to be Russian soldiers, and would be sent to a boot-camp....then onto Ukraine.

I'm guessing it's a act that will take place across Russia in the weeks to come.

How many illegals or migrants-with-papers exist?  Back before the war, the number was generally assumed to be a minimum of 400,000 to 7-million....depending on the 'season' and work activity. 

Do I trust the number?  No....it's simply a best guess by the Russians themselves. 

Once this gets out....will the migrant-workers remain?  I'm of the mind that the vast majority see the 'end' of their work-routine, and will find ways to exit the country as soon as possible. 

So what are the consequences if 400,000 workers leave?  I'd suggest a fair number of renovation/construction projects will just stop entirely.  The average Russian won't see this as a problem, but if you were heading up some massive renovation project....it's now probably collapsed and will just linger until Putin dies or the war ends.

I'd also go and suggest that a fair number of the 400k were doing agricultural work, and their lack of presence....will present issues in getting products to the grocery stores...probably even starting in six weeks.  You needed people to run hen-houses, pluck fruit, and pick tomato's.  This will get to the vision of an average Russian.    

Five German News Stories

 1.  Poll done on political scene.....if the coalition were forced to a vote (SPD-Green-FDP)....they would be 13 points below the fall 2021 level of the last federal election.  Not enough to win.

2.  Head of the CDU Party (Fredrich Merz) gave an interview and said turning back on nuclear power is a priority for the CDU.  It's not a hot-topic for Germans....since they turned the last nuke plant off earlier in the year.  

How many Germans would be 'sour' over this idea?  I'd put the number close to 50-percent.  

The odd thing from this interview.....he (Merz) kinda hints that virtually all of the accomplishments of the current coalition (SPD-Greens-FDP) would be reversed.  Pretty radical statement. 

3.  New poll done....asking Germans if they are happy with the coalition government (SPD-Greens-FDP).  Almost three-quarters of people polled said 'NO'.

If you sat in some group and asked them why.....it'd go across various lines.  Selling the 'brand' or message for the coalition hasn't gone well.  In the past, the public TV folks (ARD/ZDF) would do a fair amount of the 'sales' of public messages, but even now....they haven't been able to lift the coalition.

Affecting state elections?  I would suggest that it's hindering both the SPD and Greens.  

4.  Harold Martenstein wrote a piece for WELT this AM.....interesting prospective...."A Country With Permanently Unregulated Immigration Is Going To The Dogs".

Basic theme?  You have a country that is bound and determined to have processes and ways of doing things....having to deal with migrants who arrive and refuse to give you their true name, true country, or true age.  He sums it up....long-term, this won't work.  

You could see some of these issues existing in 2015/2016 already, and the bulk of society just looking the other way.  I'd say in the past five years....the number of 'disappeared-people' (my word for the crowd) have expanded.  

A problem with the Ukrainians who came?  No.  I would suggest the bulk of Iraqis and Syrians also were honest.  

How many 'disappeared-people' exist?  No one can cite a number, and I doubt if politicians want to admit in public that there might be a quarter-million people like this in Germany today.  

5.  I ended up last night at a Rhein Music Fest event over in Mainz....orchestra doing science fiction music (ET, Star Wars, etc).  Big hall....probably could seat 1,000 guests....at least 200 seats empty.  Before Covid, I think they would have easily filled the place.  Now.....not so much enthusiasm.  

Footnote: I'm calling it the end for summer as of this weekend.  AC unit is going back to the basement tomorrow.  Summer of 2023.....for central Rhine Valley (Wiesbaden)....probably the most mild summer I've ever experienced.  After a totally dry May and June.....the grass was completely dead.  Then rains for July and August brought the whole lawn back to life, with cool temperatures.

At some point, I even noted locals wearing fall clothing in the middle of July.  Pool attendance?  I would imagine the numbers will be 30-percent off the normal average.  

The Straw Matter

 About three years ago in Germany....the media and political elements hyped-up that plastic straws were evil and needed to be outlawed.  So if you do visit a German shop today.....you can buy either metal/re-useable straws or paper straws (usually your only choice when at a pub/bar).  

I noticed this week....that some science folks had analyzed paper straws, and come to new opinion...that they contained some form of 'evil' toxic 'forever' chemicals.  

No one is saying much yet, but I would imagine within 30 days.....the environmental folks in Germany will push a new agenda to dump paper-straws.

In the end, I suspect we will be told to just quit on straws, period.  Yes, go back to the stone-age (anything prior to 3,000 BC).  If you remember the original necessity of straws....this was back in the era when the Sumerians used to brew beer, and the 'pots' were too large for mortal men to hold and sip beer....so straws were invented.  

This just begs the question...are we always jumping from one 'fire' into another 'fire' without much thinking over consequences?  

How The Bavaria State Election Shapes Up?

 We are about five weeks away from the state election in Bavaria.  If you follow polls and trends.....you can predict the general outcome:

1.  The CSU Party ought to pull near 40-percent.  There's no doubt that they will be the 'winner'.

2.  The Green Party ought to come in second....near the 14-to-16 percent level.  A year ago, they would have been four points higher....so they've lost some public sentiment over the past 12 months.

3.  The AfD Party will likely place third....very close to the Green Party (say 14-percent).  

4.  The SPD Party will be lucky to get to the 10-percent, and there's a possibility that the Linke Party (far left) will not get more than two-percent of the vote.

5.  The FW Party probably will clear near 13-percent and be a partner of the CSU in the next coalition.

If you asked me on the coalition situation....I'd say the CSU will have enough votes that requires only one partner, and it'll be the FW Party.  

On the drama-scale (1-to-10).....I give this election no more than a '3'.  

Four German News Stories

 1.  In the central Rhine Valley, summer is basically over.  You can view the weather situation for the next 10 days, and the temperature will be modest at 20 C (68 F) for day-time, and pretty low at 12 C (54 F) at night.  

Past 24 hours for rain in my village?  Probably up to 3 inches fell....for July and August, it's way above the average.

2.  Another national opinion poll was done....asking who to blame for the failures of the coalition gov't (led by the SPD, Greens, FDP).  General public reaction?  The Green Party itself gets the majority of blame.  

I would suggest that various agenda items haven't sold well....even when the message was pushed by the news  media.  The heat-pump business still lingers and isn't that well received.  

3.  Both the Interior Minister and the Federal Attorney General had comments yesterday over the Nord Stream pipe explosion.  It would appear that they still intend to bring 'someone' to justice.  Investigation has yet to collapse.

4.  State of NRW...dumped the rule of distance (1,000 meters) that a wind-generator has to be from a village.  State parliament session accomplished this.  

If I were to guess....this is going to be a negative for the next state election.  

Of the sixteen German states, after Bremen, Hamburg and Berlin....I would consider NRW (far northwest) to be the most urbanized (crowded) state.

As you start to put wind-generators within 500 meters of a village....it'll just be a magnet for people to protest and use the court system to hold off the placement.  

Wagner Scenario

 I sat and read a piece this AM....suggesting that the Wagner mercenaries (of Russia) might decide that Putin was responsible for the death of their 'boss'....then convoy to Moscow to remove Putin.

It's an interesting scenario, but not that realistic.

How many guys over in Belarus?  Generally, the number figured is around 10,000 to 15,000 there, and maybe still 5,000 to 10,000 down at the war zone.  

So the question is....could you have a 25,000 mercenary group 'march/convoy' to Moscow and trigger a coup?

I paused over this.  Weird crap like this does happen.  In 1970s Panama....Noriega escorted the 'fired' General from the David (at the north border) to Panama City, with probably 300 troops....kicking out the newly installed 'bosses'. 

I'm not that pepped-up that the police of Moscow want to tangle with Wagner guys, and they'd probably all hitch rides and leave east out of town.  

Putin's own 'guard'?  I would imagine since past coup episode....they are probably beefed-up, with a minimum of 15,000 in Moscow.  Would they stay or run....knowing this was  Wagner people?

Would half the population of Moscow leave?  Well....that's a curious question....where would they go (talking about a current population of 8-million locally)?  

Even if Putin and his 'team' were tossed....then what?  Is there any real replacement beyond a Putin-team-member?  

Funny scenario.....just makes you wonder how crazy these Wagner people might be.

One final note...isn't this what triggered Hitler and associates to dismantle the Brown-Shirts.....fear that they'd trigger a coup at some point?

Ecars and Germany

 Interesting piece in Focus this AM....talking about the German government goal of 15-million E-cars registered in Germany by 2030.

For the record, at the end of 2022....the registered number were 1.1-million.  For 2022....they ended up with roughly 830,000 new E-cars on the road.  Comparing numbers?  Roughly one out of three cars sold....were E-cars.

So what the article hinted at?  Well.....even being optimistic, no one really believes they will reach the 15-milliion number of 2030.  There's some assumption that they will top 1-million new E-cars for 2023, and they might come close to 1.5-million in 2024.  

The emphasis here....they won't be anywhere near the 15-million number.

I went and did the test drive in 2019, and will admit the Audi E-tron is a fine car.  Selling me on E-cars?  It's pretty difficult because I tend to engage on the battery business, and the continuing trend of electrical cost.  To me, it only makes sense to buy the car....if I were putting panels up on the house and generating a significant amount of my power.  I'm also shaking my head over how they will make-up for gas taxes, and bring the general cost of the these E-cars down.  

As we arrive at 2030, will this failed achievement of the goal a big deal?  No.  The Chancellor will probably deliver a 12-minute speech how everyone worked hard, and it's just a fantasy number (made-up).

Three German News Stories

 1. Russia's Prigozhiv is still at the top of German news.  They interviewed two eyewitness folks, and both said there was an explosive 'noise'.  

Some people are suggesting that the Wagner mercenaries may not take this in a happy way, and restart another coup attempt.  I noticed someone talking of the deployment area in Belarus where they were hanging out....all internet in the region has been cut off.  

2.  Fair amount of chatter starting up about the variant of Covid arriving in Germany. 

3.  Ex-prince Harry and wife Meghan will be coming to Dusseldorf in the coming weeks. 

Humble View Over Prigozhiv's Death

 First, I really doubt that they found some cellphone intact, from the crash site.  

Second, there were two planes that took off, and it's just funny that the 2nd continued on.

Is Prigozhiv dead?  I'm led to believe this story but it would not shock me if the guy turned up next month, and just decided to play this game to disappear.

Finally, it is just odd how German news got all warped-up over this guy's demise, and spent so much time last night to tell the 'story'.  I hate to make the comparison, but it was the Pope died.  

School Attack Story

 About 20 miles east of Dresden, we had some nutcase episode yesterday morning....16-year old kid (previously kicked out of a school) returned with a knife and attempted to stab kids in the school.

The town? Bischofswerda.  

Injured?  So far.....one third-grader...in the hospital.

Apparently, the attacker got scared at this point, and as the police arrived....lit himself on fire.  Presently....the attacker is in the hospital in a coma.

What the attack was about?  Unknown.  It appears as the attack started up on the 8-year  old....staff reacted quickly enough to less whatever the original plan was about.

Three Humble Thoughts

 1.  This Republican debate from last night....drew a fair amount of German news interest.  But if you asked a hundred Germans.....to name off who might be running in 2024....it's Biden and Trump mostly.....with mostly 30-percent probably naming DeSantis.  

Any real feelings at this point?  No.  I'd say most Germans are looking squarely at the Chancellor....frustrated about the German economy, and wanting some return to normalcy (meaning no Covid, no refugee issue, no Ukraine-Russia war, and no activists blocking roads/streets). 

The idea that the US election might draw 'heat' away from German grumbling?  Maybe the public media guys and the parties wish that.  

2.  This suggestion that Russia's Prigozhin was trying to get into a Niger-war support function, and drawing contract mercenaries away from Putin's use? 

It's a interesting scenario, with zero proof.

I will admit....Niger is becoming a bigger deal as each week passes, and a number of French folks are hoping for a 'fix-it-situation'.  Germans?  I doubt if you could get more than 2-percent of society to have any interest in the war.

3.  Is there really a teacher shortage going on in Germany?

You have to go state-by-state, and in the Brandenburg region....yeah, it's pretty bad....with school starting and somewhere in the area of 500-odd teacher positions vacant.  

New person starting out in Brandenburg?  You get in the range of 3,200 Euro per month.  If you were in Hamburg, it's in the range of 3,500 Euro.  In Saxony-Anhalt, it's in the range of 3,200.  

What's said in Brandenburg is that the region (for housing) is more expensive, and you can do better with a degree, than teaching.  

Now, I will say this....if you were around 45 years old in Brandenburg....it's 4,000 Euro.  So over a 20-year period, you'd only move up 800 Euro.  A lot of people might view the salary limits and stress, just to say there's more things to do.

If The German Government Attempts To Bring Covid 'Fear' Back?

 I'll offer these five observations:

1.  Economically, a ton of German business operations, from pubs to cafes....from theaters to restaurants....were left in serious trouble near the end of 2022, as the mandates were terminated.  

Some survived....some dissolved.  

You won't find anyone in the German business world who has any appreciation of gov't mandates over Covid. 

2.  The Finance Ministry would likely jerk around the Health Ministry and tell them bluntly....the budget has NO extras to cover the 'help-the-poor-Covid-people' situations this time around.  (That war business prevents any big extras in budget-planning).  

If you were looking for one hard-core group to be anti-Covid at this point (within the government)....it's the Finance Ministry.

3.  From spring of 2021 to the end of 2022....the German government was able to get around 75-percent of the public talked into a vaccination.  Based on news accounts and some 'BS-rumors'....about one-percent of the 75-percent folks.....probably didn't get a true vaccination (meaning saline).  So they never were truly vaxed-up.

If you said.....line up and get the next vax situation?  I have my doubts that it'd go past 50-percent this time around.  I also think the threat business (you can't enter a restaurant or get full-service)....won't really work anymore.  If anything, bringing back mandates....would just trigger people to hold their money this time, and boycott the economy.  

Economically, they can't handle another full season of this.

4.  This likely turning into a 'fear-the-flu/Covid-season'?  Well....watching Brit and American news....I'd say that's about 90-percent of the trend going on (you need to worry about flu-Covid....saying it's basically the same thing).

But from years past....Germans just weren't that fearful of the flu season, so trying to manipulate the public into a new combined fear....probably won't work.

5.  Finally, trying to take Covid-messaging/branding to public TV....onto public forum shows....will get marginal public viewing this time around.  

Looking back at 2020/2021, and the amount of forums dedicated to this.....presently, you might get 5-percent of the public willing to watch some hour of Doctor so-V-so hyped-up, arguing with political-Monika and journalist-Gunter.  So to suggest via the political system that you need to get hyped-up.....public TV is useless.  

Personally, I have no doubt that something will be invented and the trend will go for about four weeks in this direction.....until they realize that the bulk of society just isn't really willing to play the 'games' anymore.  Recession-wise.....you'd just be attaching a ten-ton anchor onto a non-swimmer and dragging them down deeper into a recession.  

New Self-Determination Law In Effect In Germany

 Passed yesterday.

So, you can change your name....once a year, with minimal legal paperwork.  Now, if you asked me.....out of a thousand Germans....how many will do this?  I'd guess fewer than five of a thousand. 

Some people likely going for weird names?  No one has said this yet, but I might anticipate some comedians going this route. 

Changing of gender?  Yeah, that's in the package as well.  You can do absolutely nothing to your body, or your clothing style, and proclaim yourself (currently a guy) as a gal.  All legal.

To attract a lot of attention?  Germans are awful practical folks, and either something IS a FACT, or it's NOT a FACT.  Branding this or selling some message....like you see in the US.....is going to be more difficult in Germany.  

I do agree....on the name change business...I'll predict that a quarter-million Germans (half of them not having a gender or sex issue) will be renaming themselves 'Scooby Doo', 'Elvis', 'Tiny Tits' or 'Rambo' just for the hell of it.

It wouldn't even shock me if 12,000 German ladies came up and renamed themselves 'Barbie'.  

We need things like this to happen in Germany....just to occasionally shake things up and make life a bit more mysterious.  

Trigger-Warning Show?

 Back in 1980....a TV character for West German criminal series on ARD was created.  The series would start in 1981, and would revolve around police-commissar 'Horst Schimanski' (to be played by Gotz George).

There are 29 episodes and two TV movies with Schimanski.

My description of the character and series?  

Schimanski is a womanizer....hard-drinker....very blunt....typically in trouble with superiors....likely to use blunt force on disagreeable bad guys....eats currywurst daily....used the German phrase for $hit at least ten times in each episode....and always got the bad guy (or gal) in the end.  

Yeah, he's an asshole.  Yeah, he drinks too much.  Yeah, in the real police world (even 1980s)....he would have been fired after a year of misbehavior.  

Older Germans  like Schimanski.  He's a symbol of the 1980s West Germany.  If you asked any German under the age of 30....probably more than 95-percent have never watched a single episode of Schimanski.

So, this topic has come up....within WDR (sub-network for the NW of Germany), and they've decided to have the episodes run.  After some review....they put a 'warning' up prior to each showing.

Warning?  Well....they hint that the language and script may be a trigger event.  A German TV series from 40 years ago.....causing trigger-events?  Yeah.

I paused over this news item.  I've watched around a dozen of the Schimanski episodes.  The episodes were never that creative...they mostly focused on the Schimanski behavior and bad-boy details.  In the end, Schimanski would always find the criminal and wrap up the case.  

This WDR attempt to 'warn'?  In a way, I think they want a discussion point with the public, and figure this would open up dialog.  But, adding to this.....WDR (along with BR, SWR, RBB....all the sub-networks)....it's just not that popular with the general public.  You can ask a hundred 20 to 30 year old Germans if they ever watch WDR, and I would imagine 95-percent would say no. Even for my household.....my wife might click over there for just three or four shows a year. (Yeah, she'll probably watch all of the Schimanski plays).

So if you really wanted to get a taste of 1980s West Germany.....browse the WDR schedule and watch a Schimanski episode. 

Five German News Stories: 24 Aug 2023

 1.  Wagner boss (Prigozhin) dead?  Pretty much the lead story across Germany last night.  They spent a fair amount of time telling of his air crash.  

Am I skeptical?  Well....it'd be awful easy to have a look-alike climb aboard the plane and fly out into doom.

2.  Markus Lanz ZDF (public TV, Channel 2) Late Show for last night?  Curious piece....he invited Anton Hofreiter.....fairly well known Green Party member.  Fairly intense talk about why the coalition gov't is so screwed-up.  Hofreiter doesn't occupy a position, so he's free to talk.  His blame?  Chancellor (Scholz).  

3.  Anthropologists across Europe are all hyped-up.  New dig-discovery....in France.....bone found which doesn't belong to humans or Neanderthals.  

4.  Green Party 'boss' (Lang) made a comment on Twitter, where tons of likes were achieved.  Research has now proven....the bulk of the likes....were 'bots'.  So the question comes up....did Lang or the Green Party pay for the bot's work?

5.  WELT had a piece over Serbia, and their spending a fair amount of cash on Chinese anti-aircraft hardware, and twenty-thousand Iranian-made drones.  Balkans war being viewed?

Trainee Story

 The German Chamber of Industry and Commerce went and did a survey of 14,000 companies  in Germany.  Key problem currently?  They are all suffering from a lack of trainees/apprentices.

Some companies even get zero applicants.

Around a dozen years ago, I was reading a German survey which laid out an odd problem.  In Bavaria.....for each hundred jobs advised for trainees....they had around 65 applicants.  In the state of NRW....for each hundred jobs advertised for trainees....they had around 130 applicants.   State by state....it differs.

Where this is heading?  You will end up in a decade or two....where some companies are desperate enough to start paying moving costs....to get people from one region of the country to another.  

Air Force Members Up For Murder

 Two Air Force enlisted guys, from Spangahlem Air Base.....got into some type assault over at Wittlich.  This occurred at 2:40 AM...last Saturday morning, at a 'fair' in the Wittlich area.

The dead guy?  German guy who was known as a martial arts expert and local business guy.

Knife fight?  Yeah.  Just based on the description....one of the two enlisted guys produced the tactical knife in this episode, and stabbed the German guy.

No one says what the fight/argument was over....may have been an insult or perceived remark.  

Murder charges?  It would appear that the US military will handle the court martial.  

Hyped-up subject in the Trier region?  Yeah.  There's a belief that this will be a case where the two walk free.  Just based on the police description....whoever owned the knife and stabbed the guy...probably gets 2nd degree murder charges....probably life in prison.  The second guy?  He may have just been standing there and a witness....it's hard to say.  

Four German News Stories

 1.  Summer ending on Friday?  Well....for the past six days and until Friday....the temperature for the central Rhine Valley area has been in the 29 C (84 F) range.  From early July to mid-August....it was five to eight degrees less for the day-time temperature.  After this Friday?  Rainstorms coming through for ten days, and a big drop in temperature....mostly 20 C (68 F). 

I have to say....it was the most mild summer in memory.  With moderate rainfall in July....the lawn got green again, and I've mowed four times in the past six weeks (something that rarely happens in August). 

2.  At the BRICS Summit in South Africa, Russia's Putin gave a televised speech (he wasn't present).  Just odd and noticed.....that while wearing the same clothing....the video hits points where it's obvious that it's been halted and the voice-level is different.  Probably three or four times.....this speech was halted, and re-started.  

3.  At Magdeburg yesterday....downtown....at the Job-Center (unemployment office)....some riot started up.  Based on the police description....it was one migrant guy who'd come to seek services....got disturbed and then started to destroy the entry area.  Onlookers were simply standing there to view the action.  Front-windows were destroyed on the building.  

4.  Just an odd pool story.....Mammendorf....about halfway between Augsburg and Munich....had to close the local pool for the day.

What the pool manager said....there was too much sweat, sunscreen and urine in the water.  I contemplated this and how people assume no one ever pees while in the water.

Four German News Stories

 1.  The US State Department gave out some 'warning' for US citizens to leave Belarus yesterday.  Any reason given?  No.

BS?  Maybe they think some weird military action is about to start.  Number of Americans there?  It would shock me if you were talking about more than 300 Americans in the country.  It's not exactly a tourist destination for Americans.

2.  Gorlitzer Park, fairly well known in Berlin for being a drug-sales area....is now supposed to become some 'model-park' operation.  What this means?  Well....the city wants to put up more lights, and offer 'green' maintenance (no idea what that means).

General idea?  Intense pressure is now on the city management folks....to get the drug-sales dissolved.  

3.  Because of petty crime escalation......Koln police went to a new policy....certain areas of the city, they are stopping and IDing  juveniles.  I would suspect they are quietly sending a message....we know your name, and have some image on our cam, if you screw up, we will find you.

4.  Russian mercenary boss Prigozhin in Africa?  Well....there is a video of a guy who looks like Prigozhin who claims he's in some African country from the last day or two.  

The real Prigozhin?  I'm not going to vouch on that.

German Discussions Over THC Levels For Weed Legalization?

 Well....the German federal-level Attorney General has come out and said they are working on some medical science being applied, and levels of THC to be similar to drinking/driving levels.

What this means?  As legalization occurs....most people expect cannabis use to progress upward.  

The general problem in Cannabis use.....if you used what was normal THC (1970s) and new 'normal' THC of today......it's possible you might smoke some weed three to four times the 'power' of old weed.  So the cops want a test that would identify things.

Opening the door for more folks to lose their license?  Yeah, I would go that route and suggest this problem will be openly discussed by summer of 2024.  

Too Many Public Forum Shows on German Public TV?

 Well....apparently a discussion has started up over ARD and ZDF....talking about the number of German public forum shows, and how similar they have become.

If you add it up between the two networks....there's probably about ten different shows existing, and someone finally noticed that they all kinda run the same talking topics.  

I could suggest that five years ago.  At one point in 2020....almost every public forum show was hyping Covid.  I'm not talking about for a week or two....but literally for months.

The 'control committee' has established some kind of test and putting the shows under some pressure to find new or different topics each week to discuss.

Where this is going to lead to?  I would imagine you will start to see rarely discussed things.....like bio-crops, or recreation, or special types of economic issues....being openly discussed.  

Three German News Stories

 1.  Over the weekend, the Premier-President (Governor) of Saxony-Anhalt came out with a statement on public TV.  Reiner Haseloff spoke to what is on paper....the primary job of ARD/ZDF (the two public TV channels)......they are supposed to be around to provide culture, information, and education.  

His 'poke'?  Well....they aren't there to provide sports or entertainment. 

Will this get any traction?  I'd say that a minimum of 50-percent of German society has some criticism of public TV, and probably a third of society would like to see them downsized drastically.  

If you count up the normal 18-hour day for a week...it's 126 hours of value, then multiply this by two....there 252 hours that ARD and ZDF put out.

Going to culture, information and education....I might agree around 100 hours fit easily into that situation.....another 50 hours marginally fit (by this, I point at cooking shows, Hollywood-news shows, etc). The rest?  Movies, sports shows, game shows, etc.  

I would say this...if you actually forced them to delete to delete most sports and all movie-production....you could cut the budget by a significant amount.  But I would add....in the prime-time (8:15 PM to 11 PM), there would be a major drop in their viewership.  

2.  Chancellor Scholz came out with a statement over the weekend.....he's never smoke Cannabis in his life.  So in this discussion of legalization.....he's had a non-supportive view of where the law is going.   I suspect if you went down the list of the top twenty SPD or CDU members....you probably will only find two or three who've smoked weed in their life.  Green Party?  Well....I would imagine 90-percent will admit they've tried weed, and half still use it once or twice a month. 

3.  In tourism news, I noticed Greece is having probably the best 'visitor' year ever....even with the fire business and hot temperatures.  

Is The Fall Federal Election In Berlin From 2021....Really Over?

 Well....NO.

The CDU Party has taken a legal case all the way to the Karlsruhe Constitutional Court....in which the push is on to say in various districts off Berlin....a crappy election effort was conducted.

The fact that the state election (at the same time) has already been forced to re-occur?  That only adds pressure to the Court.

Adding to the mess?  It's not just the 432 districts of Berlin that the complaint is about....it extends out to several other neighborhoods (example: Friedrichshain-Kreuzberg and Steglitz-Zehlendorf).

The gamble here?  If the court agrees, and the federal election of September 2021 occurs....there's probably fewer votes in the city for the SPD and Greens.....with the CDU and probably AfD likely to gain....meaning some seats in the Bundestag would flip over.

Odds of this?  I would suspect the Court is looking for any possible exit to keep from forcing another repeat.

Has anything like this ever occurred before?  No....from what journalists suggest....it's never reached this stage.  

If the court said yes....do a repeat?  I would assume in 60 days....the city would attempt another election (probably late October or early November).  

The key trigger to all of this?  Covid vaccinations.  You see....once the vax stuff started....Berlin said if you volunteered to be a poll-player.....you got into the first line in early 2021....several months ahead of others.  So a bunch of folks said they would volunteer....then UN-volunteered shortly before the fall election....leaving the poll-player listings short-manned. 

You can laugh about the way this was handled, but it was all legit.  

(Footnote: having the election on the same day as a Marathon being run in the city.....was also a stupid move).

Five German News Stories

 1.  Within the past 3 days....summer 'heat' has finally returned to central Germany.  We are in my valley in a 'wave' of 29 C (84 F)....probably will last for 8 days.  Forecast already go back down to 24 C (72 F) by upcoming Thursday, with more storms anticipated by next weekend. For July and August....most mild summer in the Rhine Valley region that I can remember.

Just note....I don't consider 29 C (84 F) really that hot.  If I were managing the weather map....it'd be tinted still light-blue...not light-red.

2.  Karlsruhe Institute of Technology did a study, and they say that 'ultra-fine-dust' in the atmosphere....is triggering a lot of the weather crisis going on presently.  Particles from drought areas and fires?  

3.  Some chatter from Last Generation activists.....wanting to make Munich a top 'target' in the coming weeks.....prior to the Bavarian state election.  One odd factor here....the court system in Bavaria is more aggressive about the law, and there's likely to be some very disappointed activists.

4.  WDR (the public TV network) is running a number of comedy shows (from 1980s/1990s) of Otto Waalkes.  Oddly enough....they are having to put trigger warnings at the beginning on.  When originally done....a lot of Ottto's comedy poked at right-wing types.  These warnings?  Made to soften impact with younger-generation left-wing types.  

Wouldn't shock me if a lot of those 1980s West German sex-comedies had to add trigger-warnings.

5.  There's a warning going out over Christmas cookies/cakes (manufacture would start in September)....that cost is going to escalate.  Adding up energy, raw materials, personnel, logistics.....you might want to prepare yourself.  Wouldn't shock me if we were talking about a 25-percent upswing.  

Public Frustration?

 INSA went out and did a public survey with Germans....asking a 'silly' question....would you want a new election and new government?  

Answer....two out of three Germans said 'yes'.

Somewhere in the questions....polling went to 'how would you vote' and the SPD Party (leading the coalition government.....managed to only get 18-percent (pretty crappy position). 

How did they manage to reach this point....two years after the last election?

I would say four basic issues:

1. Scholz as Chancellor....hasn't been selling things well.  He hasn't screwed up or gotten into some chaos....but his charm/wit angle....is  marginal.

2.  The heat-pump emergency has not sold well, and you can blame the Green Party for most of that chaos.

3.  We are still in a recession spiral (my humble view), and nothing has really been resolved.

4.  The Ukraine-Russia war has consumed a fair amount of German gov't resources/effort. 

In a normal period....the CDU-CSU folks would be really thrilled right now (it would be a great position), but AfD is lingering there....at 20-percent in polling.  

To be honest, if AfD picked out a major topic or two to add (like the German poverty-stricken society)...they could probably add five points onto their status.

The fact that neither ARD/ZDF can't help reform the SPD theme/message?  That's an odd part of the story.  Maybe it's fewer people watching them than a decade ago, or the effect of social media. 

Three Things

 1.  This week, the German public TV network....ARD....ran their 'Kontraste'  program, and the documentary piece (16 minutes) covers crack epidemic going on in Germany.  You can view the piece here.

Pretty blunt, descriptive, and worth viewing.

If you haven't been around metropolitan regions of Germany in a decade....things have kinda changed.  It doesn't matter if you walk about Frankfurt, Berlin or Hamburg....drugs are a certain part of the culture now.  

2.  What's the Arrow-3 defense system about?

The Germans bought a defensive missile system from Israel.  Better than the Patriot system?  Well.....they say Arrow-3 can handle up to 500 km situations....which is not what the Patriot is capable of.  A Russian-measure?  Yeah, I'd say that.

3.  That two-percent of GDP NATO spending measure that was written in German law, that neither Merkel or Scholz was capable of reaching?

It was quietly edited out of federal law in the past week.  

Whether or not this becomes an issue in the future?  Unknown.  With various 'sudden' problems that pop up....they simply don't have the money laying around to conduct this type of spending. 

Eight German News Stories

 1.  For Covid, the German gov't reduced the sales tax on restaurants from 19-percent to 7-percent....but that was a temp-fix, and it's supposed to run out in December  2023....unless renewed.

So chatter started up about this....to keep it at 7-percent.  If they fail?  Your budget for eating out will be lessened.  You can figure a regular one-person pizza....now around 9-Euro...will  go to 11-Euro or more.  

My humble guess....going to be heavy public pressure, and the push for another 3-year extension of the 7-percent VAT.

2.  Focus piece: Some German tourist went a few months ago to Koln for the day.  What they saw downtown?  Crap (literally) on the street, urine, and garbage.  So the guy wrote a letter to the mayor of Koln....alerting him.  

Four months pass.  Focus sent a reporter to the guy, and I guess they did a walk-around....basically summing up the same problems.

To be honest,  if you walk around Frankfurt, you see the same details.  I would imagine most of the ten most popular cities in Germany are this way.  Public toilets that did exist in the 1960s/1970s.....are mostly gone. You can walk any big city today in Germany, and if you had some urgent need....other than some McDonalds or train-station area.....there's no toilet.  With more homeless people....the problem just expands out.  

3.  Nuclear power plants are coming up as a topic now.  Even though Germany has closed all of their plants.....there's some public sentiment about correcting the electrical prices, and the belief is that nuke power is the way to go.

Politically a problem?  If you look at the SPD/Greens....total negativity.  FDP, CDU-CSU and AfD.....pro-nuke power.  

The one odd issue brewing....as negative as Germany is about nuke power....most of their neighbors all operate nuke plants.  

4.  WELT piece: One out of every four German companies has 'losses' due to a lack of skilled workers.

5.  Building permits for housing....down by 27-percent in 2023.  Recession and loan-rates probably driving some of this.

6.  Lot of hype from last night's ARD prime news at 8 PM....one out of four German kids in a poverty 'trap'.  They led off with this story and talked for several minutes over the growing problem.  I asked my German wife why they didn't bring up the poverty senior population in Germany (probably the same numbers or worse), and I got one of those 'don't bring this up' stares.

7.  Some N-TV report this AM.....analysts say half-a-million Russians/Ukrainians now dead/wounded from 2022/2023 war.  Could be some BS in the numbers....you just don't know.

8.  Odd massive car crash in downtown Koln last night....ten cars involved.  So far, cops haven't figured this out.  Was over near the Arena.  14 people taken by ambulance.

Q-and-A: 18 Aug 2023

 1.  Is Eris the new Covid, in Germany?

Well....if you follow ARD/ZDF (public TV news), yeah.  

However, if you asked about enthusiasm to go for more regulations/mandates/closures?  I will stress that more than 70-percent of Germans just aren't that eager to restart the crap from 2020/2021.

Even suggesting hype on the vax?  Just not going to be many eager individuals to play along this time.

2.  German government's Airbus 340 to carry spare parts onboard now?

Well....after this breakdown where the gov't's VIP plane was stuck for days.....the German Air Force has selected x-amount of spare parts to be carried onboard.  No one says how much but they've selected the items with potential for breakage.

3.  Car insurance rates for Telsa cars in Germany going up?

I read a piece today where it's enough to 'shock' owners.  

Four German News Stories: 18 August 2023

 1.  Weather folks now say that storm from Wed night.....generated around 25,000 lightning bolts in the region.....more than what would be normal for the region....in a normal year. I would guess in my village....at least 20 'hits' (homes/trees).

2.  Focus had a piece over a German mother who apparently was all hyped-up to travel to Costa Rica for summer vacation.  Her son was fairly determined.....no Costa Rica trip....because of the C02 damage from flying there from Germany. I would imagine across Germany....there's probably 500 kids like this now.

3.  Lithuania has shut down two border crossing to Belarus....pushing tensions up a notch.

4. The German desire to spend 2-percent of GDP on the military budget?  There's commentary that they might reach it presently, but it won't be a long-term goal of the SPD-coalition.  

This NATO-push?  It's been lingering for a decade now.....even Chancellor Merkel objected to the 2-percent number. 

Sound-Blitz Cameras?

 Berlin going to a 'noise-blitz-camera'?

Yeah.

RBB story.

So the basis of this....to have good health....you need to have limited noise.  Regulation in Berlin has been written so that if you operate a car with modifications, and the system detects excess noise.....you will have a photo of the car taken and a fine will be issued.

Q-and-A: 17 August 2023

 1.  Odds of the AfD Party ever taking over the German gov't?  

Well....pretty much zero-zero-zero.

I say this because they'd have to 'win' an election (even by 1-point over the 2nd place holder), then invite other parties to form a coalition (50-percent minimum).  None of the other parties would do so.

By German law, the 2nd place winner would then (after say 2 months of attempts) would be given the right to form, and you'd see a coalition formed.

Present trending?  AfD stands at generally 20-to-24 percent depending on the survey.  Nationally, there might be another 10-percent of folks who are angry, and could potentially vote AfD, but it doesn't get beyond 35-percent on real potential votes.

I do admit....a lot of this AfD support....comes from a negativity about the present SPD-coalition government, and a fair amount of stumbling around on policies making sense. 

2.  Linke Party falling apart?

Bartsch (the Parliamentary 'boss') resigned yesterday.  Based on polls in Hessen and Bavaria (state elections shortly)....Linke will slip badly.  

I would suggest that from established hard-core Linke voters....most have walked over to the Greens or SPD. By 2025's national election....they probably won't exist.

3.  How difficult is this legalization of Cannabis in Germany?

Well....the draft law is now up to 184 pages.  Even if you started to read it on a Friday evening...it'd take all weekend to consume the law.

One note that I've noticed....an individual will be limited 50 grams of weed per month (for people over 21).  If you are 18-to-21....30 grams is max.

It can only be sold via a 'club'.....to which one club per 6,000 residents of a town is the generally worded understanding.  So in my town of Wiesbaden....if you do the numbers.....there might be 48 'clubs' around town.  It's hard for me to imagine this, and I would guess a number of these will be mandated to only exist in some industrial-work area.

4.  This town-hall stuff with Chancellor Scholz going well?

The Erfurt episode was a bit awkward.....Scholz did talk a bit, but if you were looking for answers to questions....he tip-toed around about half of the questions.  But if you were measuring against Merkel's town-hall episodes....it was equivalent.  

5.  Survey of non-Germans working in Germany....dismal?

It's a bit funny, but comes from RBB (public TV in Berlin).

So the study says from non-Germans....things are too complicated.....Germans are unfriendly....it's too bureaucratic....and the language business is demanding.

About one out of three 'guests' responded in the survey that they weren't fitting into society.

Now, what was left out?  They didn't really tell you the nationality of the 'guests' interviewed, and if any particular societies were more left-out than  other societies.  

First, on the language (having taken enough of these), it is science-driven....over decades.  Just on the 'the' business (die, der or das)....if you sit and quiz authentic Germans.....probably 10-percent will simply be guessing on the die, der or das business.  

Second, if you said some new 'thing' has to occur and make things different....the German preoccupation is to mandate a regulation.  An American or Aussie mindset might say 'fine', and just write three pages of rules.  Germans?  They might spend six months thinking over it and writing forty pages of rules (that's just for the first year).

Third, I'm not really convinced on the unfriendly nature concept of Germans.  If you did ask....most Germans would suggest that in three or four layers of 'friends'...there's only two that are in the inner-most circle.  Germans do have a sense of humor....although it's probably not the Benny Hill-type of the UK, or the Dave Chappelle-type from the US.  

Beach and Parking Story

 I was reading through some tourist related news....from Italy, and this one odd story came up.

On the far south of Italy....Pugila region....regional authorities went out and made a rule up (with fines).....no food or beverage sales allowed on the beach front.  

Yeah, no ice cream....no sodas....no water....no food.  It wasn't just geared for the visitors...it was meant for locals as well.  

Aggravation?  It would appear that it's a political hot item now.

Then from the German tourist news....shocker comes up in the North Sea region where tourists are now charged a day-parking free of 12 Euro.....if you wanted to park and spend the day on the local beach.

News folks sat and had several long talks with the authorities, and they all believe it's acceptable to charge the 10-to-12 Euro fee, depending on which people they interview.

What will happen?  Eventually, some farmer will figure out that he can offer parking for half the price, and try to get into the 'racket'.  

My general view?  By the time you figure the whole day (parking, beverages, food, an umbrella)....for a family of four....a simple day at the beach will involve around 100 Euro.  

If you'd suggested that back a decade ago in Germany....folks would have laughed. You could have done the same thing in 2000....for 40 DM's.  

Just Odd

 I sat and watched the late news off ZDF (Channel 2, public TV) last night here in Germany.

They did a 6-minute piece over the Maui, Hawaii fire.  

So they did the climate change chatter.  But they shocked me....they then got into interviews about the lack of warning (no alarm system functional), the lack of water in the hydrants, and the non-native grasses in the region after the sugar industry downsized.

If any German watched the piece....you were left asking questions about the local authorities and the level of incompetence.  

Yeah, it was one of the rare occasions that they weren't using CBS or CNN coverage and their views as the basic story.  

Four German News Stories

 1.  A unique storm front came through the Rhine Valley last night.  Huge amount of rain for about 90 minutes in my region.  Just within the village area itself....I think at least 20 lightning strikes occurred against trees or buildings.  

Weather service says 25,000 lightning bolts were observed in the Frankfurt-Wiesbaden region from this storm.

What comes behind the front?  Friday through Monday.....31 C (88 F) temperatures.

2.  WELT piece.....around 50-percent of German society fully supports cannabis legalization.  Rest is split.....either no real opinion or against it. 

3.  In several German states, as you travel on the autobahn....there's a power line situation....for a test to introduce electric-trucks.  Experimental phase.  WELT says that the tests aren't going well, and that this probably has reached a maximum use situation.

4.  Draft law circling around the Bundestag....on Bundeswehr soldiers who are noted as 'extremists'.  Key provision?  No court action....this would be a paperwork drill and the individual would be routed out in a matter of days.  

Likely to be challenged in court?  Yeah, and the brewing issue....if you opened up this path....there's nothing to say that 3,000 Bundeswehr soldiers end up on a exit list....making the manpower issue even greater.  

New Residents Story

 Up in the Mecklenburg area (east of Hamburg)....in the town of Upahl....resides about 500 residents.  It's safe to say it's a fairly rural area....probably more cows than people.

It's been decided between state leadership and the town's authorities....to build up a refugee center.  Originally, it was talked about to be 400 'places', and with a fair amount of criticism....it's been downsized to 250 'places'.

Anger mounting?  Well....yeah.

I looked over the map.  This is a village of few conveniences (no pharmacy, no grocery, no gas station).  I should note....at the end of the village, near the autobahn.....there is one gas station.

The problem with this....after a week or two....the 'new' Germans (refugees) will ask where you get groceries, and the tip will be.....you need to ride the bus or walk about 3.5 kilometers north....to the next town which does have a grocery or two.

Nothing much to do?  That's going to come up quickly.  

Over the hill from me....the next village had such an order from about seven years ago.  They worked up a contract with a temp-building company, and way out in the industrial area.....they erected this hundred-person 'village'.  Locals approved the deal but this kept the 'new' folks way out from the village itself, and with few bus options....that village last around three years before it was dismantled.  

From a long-term planning aspect....the migration program just doesn't have a lot of support or planning attached.  

Heat Study

 For about 1,800 years, my local town of Wiesbaden has been around.  This year, the state has Hessen has handed a 'duty' to the city council....develop a heat-plan.  Basically, they want the city to plan for dramatic heat waves in the future.

So the pumped out a 'survey' this week.....here.

I sat there mostly amused.  They want to know the hot places in town, and the cool places.

Where you have tree cover (like the city park system)....is where you have shade and less heat.

Where you have tin-roofs, asphalt in abundance (parking lots) and concrete roads....is where you have heat magnets.

If you asked me....is the city lacking shade trees?  I'd say yeah....you could probably plant 20,000 additional trees in the city.  But I'd also warn you.....with wind-storms and heavy snow...in twenty years....you might have a thousand trees damaged or falling over.

How did we survive for those centuries without a heat-plan?  Unknown.

Will there be some kind of heat-Czar existing for the city in the future?  I pondered this....thinking, yeah....some gal/guy will get this duty.  

If we had a couple of blizzard situations....would the state get all worried and ask the city to develop a snow-Czar?  Yeah, that's possible too.

All I can see here....probably in 2024 to 2025....there's probably going to be several thousand trees a year planted, and maybe in twenty years....their shade will be appreciated.  

Eight German News Stories: 16 Aug 2023

 1.  Russians announced yesterday....via Russian central bank....national interest rate which had been 8.5-percent....reset now to 12-percent. I would guess some business front 'stall' for remainder of 2023....to occur.

2.  Lot of chatter over break-downs of the two Airbus A340 aircraft used by Scholz and his coalition 'team'.  Story goes that the Bundeswehr wants to retire the two, and go to the A350 (considered to be less issues).  

I should note....the big Australia trip planned by the Foreign Minister?  That's been cancelled because of the reliability issues with the two planes.  

What I generally don't buy here....the A340 is regularly used by various airlines, and you just don't see this problem occurring.  

3.  German Association of Judges came out against the legalization of Cannabis.  Added weight to stall or hinder legalization....which was supposed to occur in early 2024.

4.  Rather odd pool 'assault' in Berlin late Monday afternoon.  Two ladies got into some argument with the pool security-guard (I would imagine a 'bouncer' type person hired by the pool folks).

The two ladies get peeved by the 'lecture' and call their boyfriends.  Boyfriends show up....assault the pool security-guard.  Cops then get called.

This will probably revolve around the poor quality of private security folks being hired-up to fix the brawls at pools.  

5.  The Attorney General of Germany (Wissing, FDP Party) has said now that there has to be cannabis 'limits' on drivers.  As legalization of weed occurs....there's probably going to be standard tests of drivers.

6.  WELT piece this AM.....now 400,000 Afghan people in Germany.

7.  New coalition gov't chatter....an idea of convincing retirees in Germany to 'leave' their current housing situation in the highly urbanized areas, and move to small towns/village.....giving younger people more access to homes/apartments (because of the housing crisis).

8.  Heat wave coming to central Germany over next five days....temp up to 86 F for my area. 

Five German News Stories

 1.  The German Foreign Secretary has had bad luck with the national plane she uses.  Major breakdown while visiting the Gulf region.  Plane is a Airbus A340.  It was down for 48 hours....waiting on maintenance....then was supposed to leave for Australia.  That repair didn't go well....so it's still 'down'.  Lot of bad luck.

2.  Last Generation activists were attempting to sneak into the VW factory in Wolfsburg.  They screwed up and were caught by plant employees before they could glue themselves to anything.  

3.  Mount Etna is spewing lava.....Italy's Catania Airport is closed down right now because of this. 

4.WELT piece: Around 33-percent of Germans (by INSA survey) have said they've considered voting or have voted for AfD Party.  Probably shocked a lot of journalists.

5. German cops still investigating Nord Stream II explosion?  Yeah, and they give no indication that they are near an end.  

Dollar to Ruble Story

 When the Russia-Ukraine war started....the dollar bought around 75 Rubles, and a month into the war....it was around 130 Rubles to the dollar.

Then, from March to June, it dropped like a rock.  Eventually, the dollar could buy fifty to sixty Rubles.

Lately?  A dollar buys 101 Rubles.

Odds by December?  At the current pace, I think it'll come near 150 Rubles.  

Now, I won't go out and suggest you buy Rubles, but if you found some Russian guy who had something of value (antiques or WW II stuff)....you might find he's willing to cut a deal.  

Bad sign for Putin?  Economically, the average Russian would be hurt if they bought stuff from beyond the border, but I just don't see that going on.

Wreck Story

 We had an unusual accident in the Hessen region yesterday, over near Schwarzenborn (about 90 minutes NE of Frankfurt).

German guy, mid-50s....into rebuilding vehicles.  He'd gone to fix up a old US Army jeep.  

Had it on a drive yesterday....something happened, and the vehicle went off the road....flipping over.  Killed him.....injured his wife.

I looked at the photo from the scene.  Canvas roof over it....had one tire completely off.  Would appear that he lost the wheel somewhere in the process, causing the flip.  Speed?  Unknown.

Years ago, I got into a discussion with a WW II vet who talked over Jeeps, and that he personally never exceeded 30 mph.  It was a great vehicle (in his mind) for off-road use (say 5 to 10 mph), but he didn't think he had great stability at any speed above 30 mph.  

Vax Story

 At some point in March of 2021....some German gal from Upper Franconia.....got her Covid vax (Astrazenica).  She had a reaction.

She went into a coma, and had to have part of her intestines pulled out.  She was 33 years old at the time.

This morning, the German court system will decide if the money she has demanded (800,000 Euro) will be granted.  

I should note here....it's the first 'big' case over the vax, and if the court agrees....it's a curious sign of where further cases will go.

A lower court ruling before?  Well....that is part of the story.  Previously a lower court could not find any error in the paperwork over the vax or it's manufacture.  It is entirely possible that the higher court will agree with this, and there will be no reward. 

Water Trend?

 I noticed this piece on Focus today....talking over restaurants in Austria.  Journalist had gone around talked to a fair number of owners, and this odd conversation started up.  Out of every two drinks ordered....water is among the two.  

About six months before Covid came along....I started a different trend when eating out in Germany.  I'd order a small beer (.3-liter) and a half-liter bottle of natural water.  

Even when I'm sitting in some cafe....to have a piece of cake and a coffee....I'll order a quarter-to-half liter of bottled water.

Health trend?  I would assume this.  Plus you have a fair number of people who fear the police on being stopped and alcohol-tested.

What Would Happen If A Wagner-Military Force Did A 'Grab' of the Lithuania and Poland 'Gap'?

 Over the past ten days, I've probably seen at least a dozen articles talking about the 104 km (64 mile) border region between Lithuania and Poland....that has a roadway that allows Russian logistics to occur to Kaliningrad (from  Belarus).    

Since the Wagner force has been sent to Belarus....this rumor-chatter has been going on.  

I generally discount this for two reasons.  First, you would require armor/APCs to really move and take the 'Gap'....something in short supply for the Russians.  Second, the amount of support to carry on this past the first seven days....doesn't exist....either in Belarus or Russia.

Air power in the region?  If you count NATO fighters....there's probably a twenty-to-one edge.  

I might agree for the first 24 hours in taking the 'Gap'....this Wagner force might have some success, then run into serious issues on the 2nd day.  

End of the Wagner 'legend'?  I would argue that having serious losses over a one-week period....the Wagner folks would lose their legend status.  

Then what?  Some retreat, or full nuke-use to send a message by Putin?  You could have forty different scenarios in this type of situation.....none favoring Russia.

So I think the chatter is mostly BS, and no grab will ever take place. 

Five German News Stories

 1.  Big championship game for the German soccer league last night (to the end of last season)...Leipzig versus FC Bayern Munich.  FC Bayern's new player, Harry Kane showed up.  Leipzig won....3-0.

2.  After almost ten years, the new bridge between the west-end of Wiesbaden and west-end of Mainz, the Schierstein-autobahn bridge....will be complete and opened today (Sunday).  

This replaces the old bridge built in the mid-1960s.

3.  Yesterday, onboard some regional train between Stuttgart and Karlsruhe....some German gal touched the electrical socket and got electrocuted....requiring an ambulance ride.  What the cops say?  Somehow, the socket had been altered by some unknown German.  

4.  Police report from Untersingen area (Stuttgart region) that a rainstorm started up near some beer-garden area yesterday.  Six folks decided to sit at a table while the storm passed over.  Lightning struck.....three folks severely wounded.  

5.  WELT piece: quarter of all German kids finishing up school....can't read at the level they finished.  

The Hurry-Up Agenda To Move German Troops To Lithuania?

 Well....today (Saturday)....several German news sources are talking about Lithuania asking for a earlier schedule for the 4,000 'promised' German troops being deployed (on a permanent basis) to Lithuania.

Some chatter added?  Lithuania says that they would assist in the movement....talking funds.

What's the whole thing about?

Since Russian 'Wagner' guys were moved to Belarus....there's been talk of instability and potentially some 'attack'.  Real evidence of this movement?  None.  What has occurred over the past week....Poland saying that 10,000 of their Army will move to the NE corner of the country....near Lithuania, and the 'Gap'.

Problems for Germany to move the 4,000?  Well....yeah....they were hoping this would be 3 years in the future, when better recruitment numbers would exist.  Yeah, there's a little recruitment issue going on presently.  

This Lithuania funds business?  I'm thinking they would agree to fund buildings and facilities....to house the 4,000 Germans and equipment.

All of this aggravating the Russians and Belarus folks?  Well, you can make that case...moving more troops to the border region doesn't help lessen tensions.

Hessen State Election Approaching

 State election in Hessen....set for 4 October 2023.

How the polling looks presently?  The CDU Party (right-of-center) has peaked out and presently sitting at the 25-percent range, with the SPD Party (left-of-center) sitting at 20-percent.  

Greens?  16-percent.  They would have been at 20 to 24 percent six months ago.

AfD?  Well....curiously, they've risen up to the 18 to 20 percent range in the past month.

AfD, this time last year?  They would have been in the ten to twelve percent range.  So yeah, there's a fair bit of change that has occurred in Hessen.

Linke Party (far left)?  A year ago, they would have pulled 5-to-6 percent....presently, its a question if they get to two-percent. 

The FDP and FW parties?  They appear to have enough to get 5-percent....meaning they will probably get seats as the election wraps up.

This rise in the AfD worrying folks?  I'd say after the election....there's going to be some closed-door meetings and both the SPD and CDU parties will discuss strategy on halting the change in the landscape.  

Five German News Stories

 1.  German cops have been more aggressive about border situations in 2023.  I noticed the number of 43,815 illegal 'entries' (folks pulled over and papers checked).  Germans say it's about a 50-percent increase, but to be truthful.....maybe it was always at this level and just more manpower put into this border check.

2.  Climate activists attempted to block the Rhine River, near Basel, Switzerland.  Four folks.  Police arrested them.

3.  With this new license business in Germany....there's one new feature (negative)...as you progress through the paperwork, the license folks will in some way review your medical 'flag' data.  For any potential health issue (diabetes for example), they can red-flag your new license and require you to visit a TUV-official-doctor to prove you are healthy enough.

One German guy (age 63) got caught up into this, and had to spend around 1,000 Euro to prove his ability to drive.  I would suspect thousands of senior Germans will be red-flagged in various ways.

If you just pretend to forget about the new license?  Ten-Euro fine.  You might survive another twenty-odd years without the new license and the red-flag gimmick.

4.  German judge's association has come up to criticize the cannabis draft law being developed by the Health Ministry.  They don't see black-market weed sales going away, which was one of the key selling points of legalizing cannabis. 

5.  This Harry Kane soccer drama for FC Bayern Munich?  Well...Harry is 30 years old (birthday was 2 weeks ago).  If you were going to rate him?  He's probably one of the ten best players in Europe today, and I'd suggest that he has around three years of premium play left in him.  But presently, with all the drama around FC Bayern Munich.....this might easily turn into a circus event.

Eight Humble Observations

 1.  Covid possibly returning to Germany?

Well....if you follow health news, there is some notice of this.  However, as much destruction to the German economy noted in 2020/2021/2022....I doubt if you see any suggestion of another harsh 'rule' era.  Even to suggest serious vax mandates....I'd say one out of four Germans who did vax-up in the past....aren't that enthusiastic about this anymore. 

2.  This town-hall like meeting with Chancellor Scholz from this week?

Look....Scholz is trying hard to present himself as the 'total-package', and he's lousy at selling his brand or solutions to the public.  But this is who the public wanted from the fall 2021 election....so just accept the limits and wait for the 2025 election.

3.  Odds of the Linke Party dissolving?

Over the summer of 2023....I'd say it's pretty close to a 70-percent chance that the Linke Party has to evolve into something else, or just fall apart.  Presently, their looks for the Hessen/Bavaria state elections?  Pretty lousy.

4.  If you are intending to travel for your summer vacation in Germany....by train....be aware that it's awful crowded because of the 49-Euro ticket business.  I'd wait till mid-September to do any railway trip.

5.  FC Bayern Munich team upgrade with Harry Kane arriving?  Well....they believe this.

6.  Some weird suggestion came up from the German Green Party today....to mandate or volunteer the German police.....to patrol the Med and save migrants.  I just don't think the police will volunteer for the job, or accept the job if ordered.

7.  WELT wrote up a piece today about how some Germans feel their work/office/function.....is more or less....a bull-shit job.  Curious way it was written, and obviously the writer had talked to a number of Germans who feel this way.  

My German wife has curiously made this type of comment over the work in her office.  She has the function of answering questions from consumers about the product, and often whines about the stupidity-level of people....needing answers.  

8.  Curious economic piece off WELT today....half of all 15-to-24 year olds in Germany....can't make enough money to survive on their own.