Monday, October 20, 2025

Explaining France's Economic Woes In Simple Fashion

I'll try to keep this simple and basic.  What you need to focus on...GDP growth of .6-perent presently....won't help.

Problem one: France's government debt has surged to 114-percent of present GDP (around €3.3 trillion), with the 2024 deficit hitting 5.8-percent of GDP.

In case you were wondering....it hasn't been this bad since 1945. The France 10-year bond now yields around the same as Italy or Greece.

Problem two: There is serious instability and legislative failures going on.

Multiple government collapses since mid-2024, including the recent resignation of Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu in October 2025, have stalled reforms and budget approvals. Without a stable majority, France risks extending the 2024 budget into 2025, delaying deficit reductions and eroding investor confidence, potentially slowing growth by .2-percentage points.

Problem three:  There is strong indicators of weak productivity and stagnant growth

Productivity growth lags behind peers like the US (widening the per capita income gap to over 20%), contributing to structural stagnation. 

Problem four: fiscal austerity and constrained public spending....marginally work.

Efforts to curb the deficit to 5.4% of GDP in 2025 involve €40 billion in cuts to public consumption and social transfers, alongside revenue hikes, but these measures are dragging on activity.

Problem five: there is definitely a deteriorating trade balance. 

Exports fell 1.8% in early 2025, pushing the trade deficit to subtract .7- percentage points from GDP growth, amid US tariffs and global trade barriers. Combined with policy uncertainty, this has weakened consumer spending, kept savings rates at record highs, and hindered investment recovery.

Progressing out?  Not with Macron.  

Last detail....as bad off as France is.....it's handcuffed to Germany.  

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