13 Dec 2025: Germany: 3 Things

 1.  Interesting docu-news program on Monday night (15 Dec)....8:15 PM...."How divided is Germany."

ARD, Channel 1.

Hour-long summary....how increased conflict/debate over values, opinions, and power is affecting Germany.  Probably worth watching.

You can throw some blame on social media....but print-media, political parties attaching themselves to trends, and TV commentary....triggering lots of people to have 'stances'

2. Germans wanting to get ALL tickets for Germany-related World Cup games (if they go to the finals)...can go through a national organization.  Problem?  Cost for such packages.....6,000 Euro.  Might be a handful of folks with that determination.  If you throw in air-travel, hotels, and food/drink....probably amounts to 25,000 Euro total.

3.  Some passenger attempted to go through/enter the Frankfurt Airport....with a false bottom  to his luggage.....11,000 diamonds found.  Guy came from Angola to Frankfurt.

Cops admitted...they had to individually count each diamond (several hours of effort).  They now need a expert to appraise each diamond. Guy sits in jail until this can be done, and a fine determined.  Could be a while.

Age of Generational Crisis

 I stood at the magazine rack last week.....looking at the newest Spiegel cover.

 

German kids in chaos. 

I spent about 2 minutes looking at the bulk of story...which they have a point.

Based on the news media....social media, and 'gory-details'....German kids by age 13/14/15....are getting a ton of information....which shouldn't be on their minds, or worry-about index.

About six months ago, I watched a interview of a German parent (assuming in her 40s)...having weekly discussions/arguments with her teen daughter....who was always wanting a debate.  'Mom' was fed-up....she had legit worries and this social media crap didn't really faze her much.

I paused over this....because Germans are going to receive this new 'core' of society in five-to-twelve years....requiring mental help and clinical doctors to cure their stress levels. 

The funny thing?  It's the 85-to-100 age group of Germans....who grew up in the war period, and they have a real view of crisis.

Investigative Journalism

 It won't be front-page news....probably not even discussed via public TV in Germany.

Seven German journalism students....regular college kids.....not the CIA or BND... tracked Russian freighters parked off off the Dutch and German coasts.

Looking at the police reports of drones....they connected the 'dots'.

You can read the piece here.

You know....30 years ago....this was regular investigative journalism,  and thousands of people were capable of digging into stories.

What should be done now?  A real German navy should park next to the freighters....light-up the freighters, and fire blank rounds....to move them.

Difference Between The EU And The European Commission

Well....yeah.

The EU is a political and economic union comprising 27 member states in Europe, focused on promoting peace, stability, and prosperity through shared policies on trade, agriculture, fisheries, regional development, travel, security, etc.  

The EU acts like a Senate/House. 

The European Commission is one of the EU's main institutions and serves as its executive branch (same as the US version of the executive branch). 

The Commission is politically independent and consists of 27 Commissioners (one from each member state), led by a President. 

 The Commission's primary roles include proposing new EU legislation (it has the exclusive right to initiate laws in most areas), implementing EU policies and decisions, managing the EU budget, enforcing EU law (such as by taking legal action against member states or companies that violate treaties), and representing the EU in international negotiations. 

 And yes.....the Commission drives the legislative agenda. 

Each Commissioner selected by the member-state....for nomination, and there are hearings to approve/dis-approve the candidate.  The EU at the end of the process...has a vote, and approves the list or disapproves the list.  

If a member country sent up a candidate that the EU doesn't like?  They (the other 26 member states, or a majority) would block the guy/gal.

12 Dec 2025: Germany: 10 Things

 1.  Odd speech by NATO Chief Rutte yesterday...telling Europe to prepare for war with Russia....on a scale not seen since WW II.

Hyping people up.

Pro-war folks don't grasp financial costs.  Other growing problem...fair sum of German youth (I would estimate nearing 50-percent)....aren't likely to play along with conscription/draft/enlistment.

2.  From last night....a 16-year-old boy was critically injured in a knife attack in Herford (NW Germany). Cops are searching for "one or more unknown perpetrators." Attack occurred near the Christmas market.

3.  Driving schools in Germany are saying they've seen 50-percent less applicants in 2025...blaming the cost of a license/training.  They are suggesting the gov't needs to take action.  Hard to say what could  happen....cost nearing an average of 3,400 Euro.  

Sounds like they want the gov't to get in the middle and cover half the cost.

4.  EU gas/diesel ban (was to occur in 2035)....flipped.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen reportedly agreed in negotiations with European People’s Party (EPP) leader Manfred Weber to adjust the 2035 mandate from a 100% emissions reduction to a 90% cut.

What this leads to?  This proposed change would allow manufacturers to continue selling some internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles, including those running on gas or diesel, as long as their overall fleet meets the average efficiency target—potentially incorporating e-fuels or hybrids. 

 It also drops plans for a full zero-emissions requirement by 2040. 

Two groups in a daze....the environmentalists thought the gas/diesel era was finished/over....bothered by this change.

Second group....car companies....angered a bit because they spent billions to develop the E-cars....finding that three-quarters of the general public simply don't  want to mess with E-cars.  They now need to spend billions more...developing E-fuel/hybrid technology.

For the public? I noted that when E-cars started to get up to 7 to 10 years in age....new battery discussion came up,  and cost was 5k Euro to 15k Euro  (battery, dump-fee, and service).  Lot of heartburn to have a car valued at 8k Euro....needing a replacement battery. 

5. Ticket shock....€155 for the World Cup opener Germany against Curaçao.  I should note....this is for a regular seat....not a premium seat.

6. Lindt, the German chocolate company....starting new strategy....refusing to sell at discount rates.

7.  My local state (Hessen)....amending the law governing the treatment of the mentally ill. 

Starting in 2026....anyone who continues to pose a danger after a hospital stay must be reported to the police.  Occurs after several incidents where  people were released and were still a threat.

8.  Two evil villain's.....cover of Spiegel this week.

9.  WELT health piece this AM.....199-percent increase in  identifying adults in Germany for ADHD.

10.  Locally in my town of Wiesbaden....22-year old arrested....pretending to be a policeman.  Was attempting to rob  a senior citizen.  Popular trend for past five years in the region....fake-cops.

Intellectual Chatter

 After WW II ended....various Nazi leaders went sent to the Nuremberg Trials, Nuremberg Germany (1945-1947).

At some point....some intellectual Americans were gathered up to study the IQ level of these  Nazis.

These examiners used the Wechsler Bellevue scale...which considered fairly reliable.

I paused over reading this and the results....this AM.

Generally speaking....85-or-less...is real low, and marginally capable of grasping thing.

Average?  100....typically.

110 or above....very capable of math, engineering tasks, and science.

Most of the Nazi leadership tested? 110-or-above.

Albert Speer....128.

Hans Frank....130.

Goering.....138.

Yeah....from this top level of leadership....mostly a higher level of IQ.

Explanation?  Coming out of the late 1800 Prussian education system....they probably were strongly challenged.  Goering...curiously, lasted about a year in university...leaving for the Nazi Party apparatus in 1921.

BS test result?  Well...you can suggest that....but there's little to prove or disprove....in terms of facts.

I would note here....Charles Manson....the cult-guy....who could not read...was assessed at a 121- IQ in the mid-1950s. 

11 Dec 2025: Germany: 5 Things

 1.  Top story this AM....out of Focus.....there's some 'secret'  US national security strategy paper....suggesting a US policy of getting four countries to "withdraw" from the EU in some fashion: Austria, Italy, Hungary, and Poland.

After reading the various accounts....I'm of the mind that someone wrote the piece  to provoke some folks (particularly EU leadership).  And that it's not really a US gov't strategy.

Plus....to be honest...in the past thirty years....as much as it's suggested that the EU is unified....it's always been fractured/divided in various ways.

2.  Debate going on in Germany.....if you call for emergency services (ambulance for example)....the authorities are eyeballing the idea of charging for the 'service'  (amounting to some sum of 300-odd Euro).

For some working-class or retired Germans....if forced into a situation of a 300-Euro fee....they are likely not to call for help, and beg some neighbor to dump them at the Emergency Room.

3. State of Brandenburg Germany....new poll.  Almost 50-percent of the public in the poll....want a new state election (next one would normally be fall of 2029).

Added burden....35-percent of polled folks....favor the AfD.  SPD currently rates  22-percent.  43-percent favor left-or-left-of-center parties.

4. This week....Germany reported a total of 2,000 drone reports for 2025.  Most are up in the Baltic region.

5.  The city of Salzgitter in Lower Saxony.....says they are planning to examine the possibility of requiring asylum seekers to perform community service.

Yeah....NOT a optional thing.

Besides your state/federal welfare/asylum monthly check....in  their vision...you'd also earn 80-Euro-Cents per hour.

Legal challenge? No doubt.

Doing the math....if you worked 40 man-hours a week....you'd top off your asylum check with 128 Euro more for the month. 

My question....where does the 80-cents come from?

The New Rule

I sat today...reading a new US regulation (published Tuesday)....affecting 42 countries....where residents might visit the US.

Yeah, it affects Germans, and start up around mid-Feb....unless challenged in court.

Data required for the Visa Waiver Program?  If you apply for the ESTA (Electronic System for Travel Authorization).....they want your history of  social media for the past five years. 

Other data?  Yeah, it will also be requested in the future, to include telephone numbers from the past five years, email addresses from the past ten years, and personal data of family members (I assume spouse and kids), including name, telephone number, date of birth, place of birth, and address.

What'll happen? I'll project it out....visits to the US basically halt by April of 2026....with hotels and tour companies in massive fits of anger.

The EU conducting the same 'game'?  I would imagine by June....same game.

People creating fake accounts?  Yeah....I could see people creating weird accounts....listing sixty-odd aliases.  Creating 60-odd kids....listing fake dates of birth and places of birth.

Necessity To Regulate/Control Things: The EU

At various times in the past 30 years....living in Europe....I've noted the EU determination to regulate/control things...in a stupid way.

Three examples:

The Banana curvature standard: The EU (in 1995) enforced strict guidelines requiring bananas to be "free from malformation or abnormal curvature." 

Why?  Well...to ensure uniformity for trade and packaging.  This lead onto discussions...where you had perfectly good bananas being dumped...if they were deemed too bendy. This was around for 13 years until the public started to openly discuss it.

Then we had  the bottled water hydration problem.

EU regulators made a rule that there was NOT insufficient evidence to claim drinking water prevents dehydration, so they prohibited bottled water companies from advertising or labeling their products as hydrating.

This occurred back in 2011, and still remains in effect today.

Finally, the vacuum cleaner power limits.  In a effort to promote energy efficiency, the EU capped the max power of vacuum cleaners at 900 watts.

This was back in 2014.

They gave notice far enough ahead....that you could buy 1200/1500 watt vacuums....with some folks still using their max-power units even today.

At some point in the next ten years....I expect a drug-treatment coming out...to improve your IQ level by 20 points....to which the EU will likely come to regulate/control the IQ-drug....where only a limited number of people can receive the drug.  The response when asked why regulate?  Well....we don't want too many high IQ folks around.

Spiraling Economy

I read through a Focus business report this afternoon....serious bankruptcy problems in Germany....highest level since 2014. For 2025 so far? Near 23,900 is expected to be the  peak by the end of December.

Add to this....because of energy costs and job dynamics....the level  of unemployed in Germany is figured to be over 3.5-million (out of 83-million).

GDP growth for 2025, projected?  .2-percent.

Nothing much to really brag about. 

The $2-Trillion US Bond Dump Idea That Connects To The EU?

 I finally went to AI (Grok) and asked.....who is the dimwit who advises the EU to sell-off or dump US Treasury Bonds. 

Groke spent 3 minutes assessing this, and finally said: "As for who's giving the advice: The reports trace it back to internal assessments from an unnamed European intelligence agency, which shared details with outlets like the Wall Street Journal about potential "commercial and economic plans" as countermeasures".

So...WSJ had someone who claimed to be a European Intelligence Agency.   BS-factor?  Well....any idiot could claim such a status, and connect back to Russia, or some financial group with an  agenda.

I sat there for a while...contemplating this 'nuke-option'.  I can't think of a single banker, financial professor, or economics wiz....who would advocate such 'behavior'.

It does sound like some bullshit that a Biden-insider, Ukrainian bureaucrat or Russian FSB-agent would say.

If a EU bureaucrat brought this up with a banker?  I would imagine the first reaction would be 'are you crazy'.

So I asked AI (Grok) to identify all elements of the EU who hold US treasury bonds.  Yeah, that took around 10 minutes.

Grok said: The ECB holds some, but it's another 14-odd countries who admit ownership, and you'd have to convince of each individual country to do something stupid.

Then Grok add....there's another dozen countries in the EU....who don't openly share their ownership  of treasury bonds (Poland is one  of them).

For this  BS-idea of nuke-selling....you'd have to go each country and convince them to be seriously stupid (in the case of the UK, it might be simple/easy)....but for 20-odd EU members....they won't sell at a loss.

On my BS-meter....this simply makes no sense.  

Crime Chatter

 The German Federal Criminal Police Office (BKA) published crime figures in its annual situation report this week...."Crime in the Context of Immigration."

So the question  is...what role do immigrants play in crime in Germany? The Federal Criminal Police Office (BKA) says....they make up almost nine percent of all suspects.

In 2024, there were a total of 1.97 million suspects, 697,000 of whom did not hold German citizenship, and 172,000 of whom were immigrants according to the BKA definition (8.8 percent of all suspects).

If you are in the midst of a German group conversation on crime....it's about a 99-percent chance of this being aggravating conversation....with most shaking their head over what can be done.

Toward the end of the Merkel era....they hired up 10,000 more police billets for the whole of Germany.  There might be another 10,000 more police added (under Merz), but I seriously doubt this can resolve the problem.

This past weekend....near the fitness studio in Wiesbaden where I go....there's a gas station. Some 'kid' (noted age 15, but no nationality).....showed up....waving a pistol, robbing the station and ran off toward the city park with roughly 500-to-700 Euro. Clerk gave a description to the police....20 minutes later....they cornered him in the park.  

It's not the wild-west...like you'd see in Atlanta....but it's something that you didn't see 20 years ago.

The Sell-Off Of US Bonds Scenario

 I spent two hours viewing the crazy scenario where the EU might sell off US Treasury Bonds....to show intent to force Trump  to a acceptable Ukraine-Russia  peace-treaty.

So the rumored value?   In the 2-trillion range.

I sat and remembered the movie....'The Big Short', and the scenario for the bond dumping would likely go this way.

Hour 1: attempting to sell $100-B of  US bonds...$100-B  of value...discounted  to  probably $95-B....to start a dump.

Hour 2: Other markets realizing the haste involved...looking at another dump of $250-B....now valued at a dump price of $200-B.

Hour 3: More markets hesitating....over $500-B of bonds....buying them only at $250-B of value.

By the end of the day....$2-trillion sold at a value of roughly $800-B (my view)....with the EU holding $1.2-trillion of lost value.

Banks in Europe trying to explain the loss in some legit fashion....with various stock markets falling.

So you end up with a group of Saudi/Japanese folks grinning....they bought  $2-trillion of bonds at almost half-price, and European politicians talking over a loss of $1 Trillion of value....just happily dumped.

The more I view this scenario....the crazier it gets. 

9 Dec 2025: Germany: 7 Things

 1.   ARD (public TV) ran 'Arena'  last night....live public  forum....100 guests, with Chancellor Merz being asked questions.

Watching the whole thing....the audience was not 'rigged' (as you might note with US networks).  A couple of folks asked fairly in-depth/complicated questions (slanted), but Merz just went on and gave the answer (without stumbling).

I'm not saying impressive....but if you watched, you probably got a decent 'dose' of reality.

At some point...question came up...how did the AfD folks get so popular....Merz responds, they only got that popular because we (meaning both the CDU-CSU and SPD) weren't that good.  

2.  There's a weird reality series that I watch...off RTL-2 (commercial TV)....which features poverty-Germans on welfare. 

So, there's a young guy on the show who occasionally gets updated.  The latest....the job-center 'forced' him into an apprenticeship deal....so he could make it without German welfare.  Well....this  past week....the guy quit the apprenticeship after the 4th week....saying it was too 'strenuous'.  The type?  Landscaping.

A lot of Germans now grumble about the welfare crowd.

3.  Unusual case in Berlin.....black guy arrested...held now for the 4th week in custody....refuses to identify himself.  They've now published his picture and are asking the public to ID him.

4.  WELT had a unusual story-line this AM....we live in a 'debate-culture'....where everything comes up to talk-over/debate.  Worth reading.

5.  The German statutory health insurance (GKV) now warns of a further increase in additional contributions.  Same issue as in the US.

6. Odd factor to Ukraine-Russia peace talks.

Before the war....roughly 17-percent  of population of  Ukraine was ethnic-Russian...particularly the SE chunk of Ukraine had more Russians.

The Russians want the SE area as part of the peace-deal...which the Ukrainians say 'no'.  If you use older data (going back to 2001 Census)....almost 40-perentof the SE area....was ethnic Russian.  

In either case (peace denied, or peace ensured)...there's likely to be 50-percent population decrease....for decades. 

7.  EU story still circulating.....selling 2.3T of US bonds if US abandons Ukraine or gives Ukraine horrible peace deal.

Full intent?  Crash US economy and bond market.

BS-meter?   1-to-10?  Probably a '3'.

The problem would be on the backs of banks to sell at a highly discounted rate....meaning a loss to EU members holding the bonds.

Yeah, as much damage as the US would suffer....EU members engaged in this....would open up a long period of recession (multiple years).

Who would buy the discounted bonds? Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Saudi Arabia, UAE, and the Fed. 

In this scenario....I would anticipate NATO dissolving in a matter of a hundred days....I would anticipate von der Leyen being fired as 'head' of the EU, and several member states (Poland among them)...buying the discounted bonds.

Crazy story, and just makes no sense.

Q-and-A: The EU

 1.  Is the EU really necessary?

YES....if you were around as an American (stationed in Germany) in the 1970s/1980s...you likely grumbled each time you went over the border, bought Francs or such, etc.

Germans complained in the same way....knowing they could buy a washer/dryer in Spain for 70-percent the cost of one made in Germany.

So if you listed all the BS....20-odd items....they all get fixed in the era of 2000-2005. Then from that point on....the EU kept looking for things to fix...finding disgruntled folks who said 'enough'.

2.  If you asked a hundred Germans who represents them in the EU.....other than Van de Layen or Weber (CSU)....99-percent have no idea.

3.  What's the pay-level for a MEP?

After taxes/insurance.....in the range of 8,500 Euro a month.

I should note there is a substance allowance, for each day of operations going  on....350 Euro...for hotel/food coverage.

A Funny Story

Over the weekend in Germany (in Aachen, NW Germany)...German federal police arrested a man with 28 identities....27 too much.

This 37-year-old was familiar with police....for drug offenses and was due for deportation.

For some reason....police got suspicious over the guy...standing in the middle of the Aachen Central Station after illegally entering Germany from Belgium.

So they checked him......the man presented a Lebanese passport and an Italian residence permit, which, however, was not valid for the Schengen Area. 

Then the 28 different names came up.

How many folks like him? No one says.   Yeah,  it's possible that if you had a real database across all of the EU....there might be 10,000 folks listed more than once...maybe even more than 20,000.

Defense Chatter

 General Alexus Grynkewich, NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander Europe, said this week....Europe "doesn’t need so many American troops" and will "do perfectly well" even with fewer U.S. forces.

I've generally said this since the Cold War ended.

My forecast?   By mid-2026....some plan will be laid out....most forces/bases gone by 2028.  

What they keep?  Probably the naval facilities in Italy/Spain, some EUCOM headquarters element (moved to Ramstein), one fighter wing, and fewer than 8,000 Army folks.  I don't think anything much will remain in the UK. 

7 Dec 2025: Germany: 2 Things

 June 14, 7:00 p.m.: Germany - Curaçao (in Houston)

1.  World Cup grumbling  starts.  Germany has the schedule now for the first three games: 14 June, 7:00 p.m.: Germany - Curaçao (in Houston). 20 June 20, 10:00 PM: Germany - Ivory Coast (in Toronto), and  25 Jun, 10:00 PM: Ecuador - Germany (in East Rutherford).

Yeah....if anyone was to watch the 10 PM games....they'd be up to 1 AM.  If they were at a pub or town-square....it'd be between 2 and 3 AM...before they got home.

2.  I watched a German 'game-show' last night...with regular people...not prominent-types.  They came to a series where generic current events questions were asked to the 9 participants. Failure after failure....probably for 15 questions. You could tell....even the moderator  was losing patience and trying to hint the answers. 

Elon Says....

 This AM....I noted this comment  brought up in the past day....Elon Musk says the European Union (EU) sent him a formal letter....in a demanding 'style'...that he censor (in some way) Donald Trump during the 2024 US presidential election.

BS?  Well....no.  It's really old news.

This is the amusing side to the story. This letter occurred on 12 August 2024...a couple of hours before the Musk-Trump interview being aired, and was framed as a reminder of X's obligations under the EU's Digital Services Act (DSA). 

What the EU letter basically said?  It went into brief detail.....he (Elon) was to prevent potentially "harmful content" and "disinformation" on X.

Who signed the letter?  Thierry Breton, the EU Commissioner for Internal Market.

To be honest, in the days after the letter came out....the EU said it was definitely not censorship.

Elon's comeback...some F-this/F-that commentary.

So this past week....looking at the 2025 results of Twitter/X...tensions over digital regulation continue.  This past week...EU fined X $140 million (about €120 million) for DSA violations like deceptive design and transparency failures.

Spring of 2025....it was noted that 21.5-million German accounts exist on Twitter, with EU-wide...being near 100-million. 

Most used in Germany?  Well....YouTube leads with 65.5-M accounts (2025).  With WhatsApp in second place with 62.2-M.  Instagram at 44-M accounts.

I'm not really pro-censorship or anti-censorship....I'm basically expecting in 100-percent of cases....some BS to be part of the sales-gimmick...either for sports, news, politics, finance, or religion.  In the EU fine situation...if I were Elon....I'd just go to members of the countries involved, and charge a 1-Euro monthly fee....calling it a censorship fee.  You pay to support censorship, or prevent censorship....interpreting it in whichever way makes you feel better.

Then I'd hand the EU the yearly 120-M cost of doing business....either supporting censorship, or defeating censorship.

Yeah, in some way....it's like professional wrestling....you need to believe 'something'....even if it's fairly faked-up.

6 Dec 2025: Germany: 4 Things

 1.  Ricarda Breyton wrote an excellent piece for  WELT...recommend a read.  Topic? Federal/state authorities in Germany doing a lot of work on online 'hate'.  A bit into the discussion Breyton asks...where does this all lead in terms of freedom of expression?

2.  German FIFA draw for 2026 World Cup settled yesterday?  The most ridiculous schedule ever.  Ecuador, Ivory Coast, and Curacao.  

I think you could start 2nd squad for all three games.  

For those suggesting the ceremony for FIFA was a 'circus'......from the past three that I've watched....they were all pretty circus-like.

3. Lot of talk this week that the EU might 'undo' the gas/diesel new car ban (for 2035)....allowing hybrid in some form (gas engine) to continue.  I would offer the humble belief....if this is the only path....nine out of ten 'buyers' will opt for the hybrid, over the E-car.

4.  Interesting to watch Channel One (public TV) news last night.  Whole segment on school kids (13-to-17)....being anti-draft and talking of refusal to fight for Germany.  They apparently (into the tens of thousands) left school in the AM Friday to demonstrate.

The new system....Germany does intend to enlarge the reserves, and if not enough  volunteers stand up.....a draft will occur.

Watching the news segment....I'd say they are going to have a problem.  

If  I were Putin....with enough troops....yeah, I might see an advantage of invading Germany, and counting on anti-draft students enabling my strategy.

The Price of Peace

 Odd story laying there this AM....probably 95-percent chance of BS....but the US is not having any luck in getting the Ukraine to peace talks.  Chief problems? Russia wants territory....the chunk of land that they currently occupy in SE Ukraine...mostly occupied before the war...by ethnic Ukraine-Russians.  Ukraine says 'NO'.

Adding to this...Russia wants a statement that NATO will never approve Ukraine's entry....which the US itself would be agreeable....but the EU says otherwise.

So the odd story goes to this 'end'....the US will just quit the talks...quit talking to Ukraine, and end 'support' (it's not clear if they mean cash-flow or military support).

So to  further complicate this odd story....European leaders are in talks...considering this idea of dumping $2.34 trillion in US bonds/debt if Trump abandons Ukraine.

How they'd dump the bonds....without seriously damaging their own economy?   Unknown.  You would see a massive US and Europe stock market drop.

I'm not really buying into this story....way too much BS.

I don't really buy into Italy or Germany taking this type of step....both are lightly stepping through a recession at present.  The UK leadership?  They might be this stupid. Macron of France has a finance/economics background....I can't see him this stupid.

I'll just add this final comment....were this to happen....the US would exit NATO (removing troops).  It might require a year....but they wouldn't maintain a presence.  For Russia...maybe this was the end-game strategy (since day one of the war). 

BSW Party Looking For A Recount?

 Why is BSW Pursuing a Vote Recount for the 2025 German Federal Election?

Well...the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) Party, a left-populist party founded in 2024 by former Left Party leader Sahra Wagenknecht...is aggressively challenging the results of Germany's 23 February 2025, federal election. The party narrowly missed the 5-percent national vote threshold required for Bundestag seats, securing only 4.981 percent.....a shortfall of about 9,529 votes. This failure excluded BSW from parliament despite strong regional support in eastern states like Saxony, Thuringia, and Brandenburg, where it had won 11-16% in prior state elections.

So....is it serious?  

Isolated recounts in roughly 250 polling stations (North Rhine-Westphalia, Marzahn-Hellersdorf in Berlin) uncovered around 1,300 additional BSW votes per station. BSW estimates a full recount could add up to 30,000 votes, enough to cross 5-percent.

In polls....one out of three Germans say....yeah, go ahead and recount.

The court is up now....reviewing data, and will issue a ruling.

Problems?  If the recount occurs, and they find 10,000 votes....they have to be given seats in the Bundestag....but here is the bigger  issue.....the CDU-CSU and SPD coalition would NOT have sufficient numbers for their coalition.....Merz  would have to invite the Greens, or Linke,  or BSW to join as well.

If you thought things were rough now....go try to imagine a new and broader  coalition.  

The funny aspect?  Court orders a recount, and they find sufficient votes....plus 1....to force a new coalition. 

The Impending Decline Of The German Car Industry

I watched a piece off N-TV this AM....done by Wulf Stolle in "Der Spiegel."

The general end-results? Starting in 2035, car manufacturers in the EU will be prohibited from selling new conventional combustion engine vehicles (gas/diesel).  And the industry is giving a warning of a impending slump.

Added to the commentary.....China is overtaking Europe.

Yeah....it's a crappy period approaching for VW, Audi, BMW, Ford, Mercedes and Opel.

The push going on...to dump the 'ban'?  I would suggest it's a big deal for 2026/2027....with the Chancellor forced into a confrontation.

Steinmeier's Term (End)?

 Frank-Walter Steinmeier (SPD Party) was elected President of Germany on 12 February 2017, and took office on March 19, 2017, after his predecessor Joachim Gauck's term ended. 

He was re-elected on February 13, 2022, and began his second five-year term on March 19, 2022. 

By the German constitution (Article 55), each term lasts five years, so his current term ends on March 19, 2027.

In case  you were wondering the vote-process....it's by the Bundestag/Landestag...not a public vote.

Toward the end of 2026....a discussion will start up.  The CDU-CSU....is probably in a position where they want their guy/gal to win.  The SPD, Greens and Linke Party?  They can only mount a roughly 38-percent of the Bundestag votes.  Sadly....the CDU-CSU...can only get their candidate in position...if the AfD were to support them.  I wouldn't  expect that.

So the CDU-CSU...really need a compromise candidate....to get the SPD to support....or go clearly to a SPD-candidate (again).

If I were betting?  SPD-candidate....again....to win.

Four Humble Thoughts Over The Ukraine-Russia 'War'

1.  Warfare is permanently changed.  Anti-tank weapons and drones are the future.

2.  Russia on day one...was totally prepared to fight a 1960s/1970s tank war/invasion (like the Warsaw Pact strategy).   Ukraine said 'NO'....downsizing the modern inventory of tanks/APCs...by 90-plus percent.

3. If you can't manufacture replacement equipment....your strategy to 'win' is non-existent.

4.  Drafting some 'kid' and giving them four weeks of boot-camp/combat training....worked in 1914 and 1940....it no longer works today.

3 Nov 2025: Germany: 3 Things

 1.  German  police (this AM) arrested two suspected ISIS terrorists in Trier and Delbrück, the Federal Prosecutor General announced.

2. Saturday evening in Wiesbaden....at the Christmas market....around 7:30 PM (wife and I walked out around 7:10 PM)....some argument started up at a stall....maybe alcohol involved.  Two guys.....both early 20s....leads to a fight.  One pulls a tear-gas cannister on the other....dumps irritant on the guy....also two customers and two stall operators.  Police got called....ambulance required.

3.   Reported...30,000-plus cases in German emergency rooms...daily.  Highest level ever.

War Chatter

 Vladimir Putin warned today....that Russia is ready to go to war with all of Europe if that’s the path European leaders choose.

BS?  At some point....he spoke to the idea....that facing Europe would be nothing like fighting Ukraine.

If I were guessing.....he'd stage a missile attack (non-nuclear)...maybe forty in one evening...to scare the crap out of Europeans.

In 24 hours....realization would occur....no one in Europe is really ready for war.

Potential Ban On Private Fireworks?

 Interior Minister this week....has serious pressure to ban private  fireworks....31Dec2025.

Various groups supporting a ban.

If you asked me....it's a bit too late...grocery stores have already ordered and will be receiving their order shortly after Xmas.

Even if you ban them....you can cross the border into Poland/Hungry to buy there.

Q-and-A

 1. What's the political break-out currently of Germany?

Left-leaning (SPD, Linke, Green, BSW)....around 36-to-38 percent of polling.

Right-leaning (FDP, AfD,  CDU, CSU)....around 55-to-58 percent of polling.

Remaining numbers?  Split among 30-odd parties.

2.  State elections coming up in 2026?

Baden-Württemberg (8 Mar), Pfalz (22 Mar), Sachsen-Anhalt (6 Sep), Berlin (20 Sep), and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (20 Sep).

Of the five....Mecklenburg-Vorpommern and Sachsen-Anhalt are probably the bigger play for AfD. CDU is the likely winners of Baden-Wurttemberg and the Pfalz.  SPD and  Linke likely to carry Berlin.

3.  What's this hype from BDI today?

BDI is the umbrella organization of German industry and industry-related service providers.  They put out a statement....industry in Germany is crippled-up....serious condition....serious things need to occur.

4. Odds of a end to the Ukraine-Russia war?

Presently....I give it less than a 20-percent chance.

Ukraine has zero desire to give up territory.  

5. Did the EU Transport Commissioner say they are "open to all technologies?"

Yeah, he basically said....if you had some gas/diesel tech stuff....that changed things....they'd dump the ban of gas/diesel new cars in 2035.

Some hybrid-tech likely to be shown....with a smaller gas/diesel engine (say a 1.0-size?).....might be the resolution. BMW already has a .65L size engine.  Mazda has a .83L rotary engine in development. 

Vax Story

Back in June of 2021....there was this story of a German man from Magdeburg (in Saxony-Anhalt)....that got into the German news....who'd had multiple Covid-19 vaccinations.

Originally....it looked like the guy had taken 30-odd vaccinations....for himself, and other people (to get people good documentation that they were 'safe', but highly illegal).

About a month into the story....the news folks dropped the story....without much explanation.

I started digging a month ago, and the rest of the story stood out.

All total....the guy (62 years old) took 219 vaccination shots.

Yeah, he was investigated for possibly selling vax-certificates in 2022.....but that fell apart....no charges.

 Yeah....researchers from the Friedrich-Alexander-Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg (in Bavaria) did study his immune response using blood/saliva samples.  No side-effects.

The guy being overly concerned with being safe from Covid? Well....yeah. It would be interesting to review his news content.

Age group falling into this story? Germany had a priority listing....starting in late December 2020....the 90-and-over crowd, with the medical folks were top priority for the first 2 months. That age-60-crowd?  They fell into play around late March.  So from late March to June....219 shots....figure 3 shots per day.

My question?  Are there others like him?

1 Dec 2026: Germany: 4 Things

 1.  New documentary movie coming out..."Now,  Where To?".....detailing the 2025 German federal election, and the Green Party disaster....laying the primary blame onto Germans who 'hate' the  Green Party agenda.

Reading the WELT story....over a thousand folks adding commentary..

In rough numbers....looking 3.5 years into the past....the Greens lost about 40-percent of voters. The agenda....was crap.

2.  Police union officials had a lot of criticism over protests held in Giessen....lot of police injured.

Key point....the anti-AfD protest was not approved by the city/authorities.

3.  Geely....new lux-E-car brand from China....to  be sold in Germany.  Comes with 8-year battery warranty.

4.  Bar inspection in Berlin was to be carried out....four police.  Fight starts up...the four police were injured enough to be sent off-duty.

Explaining The Deportation 'Dilemma'

While the AfD Party states a highly priority to exercise deportations.....'how' remains unanswered.

As of July 2025 (the most recent publicly available data from the German Federal Ministry of the Interior), approximately 220,800 people are living in Germany without an official residence permit and are subject to deportation obligations. 

This includes 178,512 individuals with a "Duldung" (tolerated stay), where deportation is temporarily suspended due to legal, humanitarian, or practical reasons (lack of travel documents/passports, medical issues, or ongoing education).

On top of that....42,296 individuals without even a tolerated stay, meaning they are fully obligated to leave but have not yet done so.

The feds are not part of the system.....it's a state-by-state effort. So they arrange a plane....figure around 28 deportees with papers finally....who are escorted/flown with roughly 40 police....to their country (forcibly).

AfD has never clearly said how they would resolve this.

Presently, with the improved relationship with Afghanistan....it's possible that a 'deal' might be worked out with higher numbers sent home. But even in the wildest of scenarios....with the AfD in power....it's hard to see more than 10,000 per year being physically deported.

Core Issues With The German Retirement System?

The German pension system is in severe demographic crisis combined with a pay-as-you-go (PAYG) structure that is extremely vulnerable to an aging and shrinking population.

Just for the  record....Germany has one of the lowest fertility rates in Europe (currently ~1.3–1.4 children per woman).

In 1990 there were about 4 workers per retiree. Today it’s roughly 2.3, and by 2040–2050 it is projected to fall lower....to roughly 1.5 or even 1.3 workers per pensioner (this came from the Statistisches Bundesamt and EU Ageing Report 2024).

The current Pay-As-You-Go System?  Almost the entire public pension (Gesetzliche Rentenversicherung) is financed by current workers’ contributions (18.6-percent of gross wage, split 50/50 between employee and employer).

There  is already in some form....a count-down-calendar....where the contributor-to-retiree ratio collapses. That means that contributions must rise dramatically, or that pensions have to be cut, or that the federal budget (taxes) must subsidize the gap.  

So, in some fashion....all three have started in some minor form.

Political fixes?  Well....raising the retirement age beyond the current gradual increase to 67 (and possibly to 68–70 in the future) apparently doesn't sell well.

Going to private or occupational pensions?  Some Germans would buy into this idea.    But only about half of workers have any meaningful supplementary coverage, and even then the amounts are modest (figure roughly 2,000 to 3,000  Euro a year....on top of your current pension).

Yeah.....Germany built a generous pension system for a young, growing population in the 1960s–1980s. But that population no longer exists.

Most experts agree the current model is unsustainable after 2030 without either drastic contribution/tax increases or significant benefit cuts.

I should add here....lot of younger Germans complaining that fixes seem to revolve  around them taking up the burden of thing.