This Baden-Wuerttemberg 'Mess'

 I've watched the clip of CDU candidate Hagel.....Wed at the school....drawn into a 'greenhouse-gas' lecture and royally screwing up the situation....with the 'kids'.

So my five thoughts:

1. Up to this point, with the state  election on Sunday....the CDU was slated to win with 27-percent....Greens ending up at 24-percent. Now?  I suggest a 3.5-point shift....Greens likely winning by 1 to 1.5 percent.

2.  Why didn't the CDU have a 'watcher' over the guy and sense he was being set up?  

It appears the teacher (probably very politicized) had things laid out to trip up Hagel, and the ARD news team....to capture the moment.  

It was scripted....pure and simple.

3.  The moment about 90 seconds into the mess....where Hagel loses 'it'?  Yeah....he's not prepared, and realizes he was tricked.....lot of  apparent anger.

4.  The 'greenhouse-effect'?  If you asked a thousand Germans....fewer than 10 would give somewhat of an answer....with half of them getting the solid answer.

5.  So, here's the odd ending.  Greens win on Sunday....my prediction.

They turn to  get the CDU to partner-up and half of the voters for the state CDU say 'NO'.  No partnership for the coalition.

The Greens turn to form with the Linke, SPD, and FDP....finding it  barely works  but the FDP want a list of conditions.

In the end....NO coalition....with another state vote in 60 days (my humble view).

AI Story

 I sat last night and watched the weather folks of public TV....hype-up their latest accomplishment.  They seem ready to hook-up AI....giving it some kind of 'best-case' versus 'worst-case' scenario ability on weather predictions.

In my mind....without much doubt....the crazy weather predictions might improve....minute-by-minute.  So you could watch 'AI-Maggie' at 6:10 AM....getting x-news on weather (nothing to worry over), and an hour later....'AI-Paul' at 7:00 AM might give you some pretty crappy news....of impending hail at 10 AM.

Monster-rain storms in July?  AI could probably track systems as they enter Germany and send you a personal warning 90 minutes ahead of time....that you need to close all windows and prepare for serious weather.

This AI-assist?  I'm not calling it a positive thing....it means AI is tracking various things, and will state facts way before a human would have uttered some warning. It's also telling you of heat-wave crap, with advice to seek cooling situations (probably telling you where some AC can be found).

A new reality. 

Page Three Story

 Yesterday......Federal Constitutional Court opened up in Germany.

Key court story?  The "Deutsche Umwelthilfe"....co-financed from tax folks of the federal government and various states, is in some suing against German industry.

By EU rules in  place.....to reach a healthy 'clean' environment.....the prosperity and the economy of Germany (the government and companies).....in some way (if they win) would have to shrink faster for the climate.

On one side....it's moderately mentioned in the news.  On the other side....if the court says they have 'power' over the economy and industry....then there's authority for them to downsize the German landscape. 

Personally, when the EU got into this law-business over the environment and industry....I don't think they had any idea where things would lead onto.

As for the folks 'pushing'?  Well....if they wake up and 30-percent of employed folks are in danger of seeing their jobs go away....society won't be that friendly or accepting of the 'reality'.

Sun Is Getting Hotter Story

I sat and watched a PR-type campaign video.....done by the CDU's lead candidate in the state of election in Baden-Württemberg.

This was set up in some school.....which I immediately noted....the kids have no vote, unless they are 16.  

I'm assuming they asked for a older group...but the kids in this room were age 13/14 (my guess).

So....Manuel Hagel went into education-mode....to explain the greenhouse effect.

My German is less-than-average....but the next 60-odd seconds...Hagel gave some words to say the sun is getting hotter....because the Earth's atmosphere is becoming thinner.

Just by the look on their faces....the kids were either in a state of disbelief....or in some mid-morning 'trance' (too much Monster-energy 'fluid').

On the positive side?  Well....the kids are still  pumped up on  climate-change-Angst (fear).

Probably needs to be a German law....to prevent politicians from entering any school unless the kids are 16-or-older (enough to vote).

Footnote: I think the CDU guy just lost 5 points off the election....but I don't see the Greens on the gain-side. Very odd development.  

How The Sunday Election Will Go in Baden-Wurttemberg?

 State election.

CDU will win....around 27-percent. Greens easily in 2nd place....24-percent.

AfD near 20-percent.

SPD, 9-percent.  Linke and FDP near 6 each.

Observations

 1. Yesterday AM....Iraqi Kurds were organized and crossing the border into Iran....invasion-style. Based on reports....I'd say they were armed by the US Army and had clear strategies....hooking up with Iranian Kurds.   

2.  Odd thing I noticed via Bloomberg News yesterday....Sweden’s central bank advised folks....they should hold a week’s worth of cash at home.  Reason?  Well....you might need to buy food, essentials...in case of a war or other crisis.

Why drove this advice?  Unknown.

3.  Putin suggested he might cut off ALL natural gas deliveries to the EU....saying that he has other customers.   

4.  These big public viewing beer-parties during WM2026 (this summer)?  Well....in Hamburg....cancelled.  Security requirements make it too costly.  Going to be a lot of grumbling how things got this way.

5.  Two bomb threats yesterday....Bremen, and Augsburg....shut-down the two train-stations.   Nothing found.

6. 143,000 registered cases to go against deportation orders in Germany for 2025.  These were people who came  into Germany....asked for asylum, were evaluated, and then given the 'nein' paperwork.

You can add up the paperwork, and manpower....probably 40-man-hours for the gov't to defend their decision (minimum)....but this would tie up the German court system for years, and years.

The court system was never made to handle this sort of mess.

7.   Cash requirement?  If you have something to  buy/pay-for....costing  over 3,000 Euro, and you pay in cash? Then some ID is required. A bad example here....if you had a used car....pricing it at 2,999 Euro would avoid the paperwork.  Pricing it at 3,050....requires the paperwork.

8. When you examine how things went 'south' so fast in Iran....this one meeting about 3 weeks ago....where the Trump folks were trying to deal with Iran's nuclear program....the topic of how much enriched uranium came up.  

We are talking weapons-grade uranium.

The response was x-amount....enough for 11 nuke-bombs.

Why this guy was honest? That's  really the big question. If he'd say half-a-nuke or less....things might have gone in a friendly fashion

Was he boasting?  Was he just a new guy? Was he just a actor in the talks?  Unknown.

9.  All that 'bad-Spain' talk? Ended.  The PM came back yesterday, and said they re-considered....Rota and Moran are open for US operations.

To put things into prospective.  

Moran is by Seville,  and Rota is by Cadiz.....both were US bases.....paid and kept up to date....for events like this.

Sanchez, the PM of Spain?  I'd describe him as 50-percent Gov Newsom (Cal)....male-model type, but being one step above Newsom on IQ, and  mostly attached to only focus-groups that get the vote out.

10.  Gas prices this AM?  In my region.....1.88 Euro for E-10.

The Too Many Employees Chat

 After yesterday's piece on Stuttgart having an audit....finding that of the 17k city employees....a 1,000 are not necessary....my German wife got into this topic.

Her belief?  If you visited the top fifty German cities....they all have a 5-to-10 percentage 'overage'.  Her belief as well...if you did trim and let people go....this 100,000 group would have issues/problems in finding new work....permanently unemployed is the outcome (her thoughts).

I pondered this unique problem.

In most cases....my belief....for each six workers....you probably have a manager, and for each three managers....there's some division chief. 

In a shop of ten folks....there's probably three workers carrying the work-load....doing around 75-percent of the work.  The remaining seven are mostly to fill the gap and 'look' busy.

In my days in the Pfalz....someone brought up their German wife wanting to open a cafe, and needing a business license.  Various trips to the town 'rathaus' were failures....mostly because of the clerk in charges of licenses. Eventually....she gave up on this idea...in this one particular village....selecting an alternate site a couple  of kilometers away, and on the first trip to that new clerk....all papers were squared away.   

I'm not saying all city employees are 'problems'.....but the system over the past forty-odd years has corrupted itself.

So the curious question....would the SPD, Greens, CDU, AfD, and Linke folks....be willing to cut 100,000 city employees across Germany?  I would say......no.

Does The US Have A Limited AMMO/Rocket/Missile Number?

 There is this odd belief.....Iran will use cheap drones (maybe two-to-three hundred a day....to force the US to spend expensive  weapons to halt the drones.....to which around day ten....the US is assumed to be 'out'.

Who gave the Iranians this idea?  I'd guess the Chinese.

The problem.....the US really hasn't put the full 'blast' of assets there in the region (in terms of Naval or Air Force). 

The other issue....as days pass....the US gets smarter on where this bulk storage of drones are, and there's to be a moment where that one single 'tunnel' is targeted.

It's a hopeful strategy....but around day 30....there's to be a bad 'feeling' lingering among those still left alive.

Ten Observations

 1.  It's an interesting thing.....probably near 30,000 Germans in the affected zone....stuck....no planes flying in/out.

Based on regional chatter there....various gov'ts (Qater, Dubai)....stepping in to pay hotel bills of folks stuck.   

One travel agent back here in Germany....I noted on social media...said something to the effect that they had a client (or two)....there in Dubai, and wanting to 'leave'.  Seems that the airport isn't sure of much.....agent was asked if they could rig up 'something'.  Agent noted that they could get them on a bus....going 25-odd hours...to Jordan.  

2.  Iran 'burning' bridges?  Yeah....sentiment from the neighbors....there's no talking-phase at this point....the Mullahs have to exit. Not sure where they might go (Russia or China....won't accept them).  

3.  This 'war' to end in four weeks?  If you wrote down a list of the top 300 'leaders' of Iran from Feb....based on commentary, I'd say that 75-percent of them are 'gone'.

If you get into the next 500 'leaders, captains, bosses'....they probably have ten days to exit...before they end up on some hit-list.

By mid-April....the US/Israel agenda is done.

4.  Gas today?  I noted 1.89 Euro to 1.94 Euro, per liter of E10.

5. New poll in Germany, for national politics....CDU-CSU up around 27-percent.....AfD at 24-percent.   

Key problem....64-percent of voters want Merz replaced.  They don't say by who.....just that one year into the situation....not much has improved.

6.  Odd feature.....62 tons of Brazilian beef  was delivered into the EU.  Tests done....it featured a growth hormone....freaking out out some folks.

Just guessing....you probably aren't seriously affected but it's just a guess.

7.  Discussion started up on social media....youth....asking if they aren't 'mature' until age 16 for social media....all the way up to 15 years/364 days....they are to be treated as 'kids'.  

Term 'unfair' comes up.  They might have a point.

8.   Islamist terrorism remains by far.....the greatest focus of the German Federal Prosecutor's Office.  Right-wing/left-wing radical stuff.....only 4-percent.

9.  Stuttgart doing an audit.....admitting that maybe around 1,000 city employees....out of 17,000....may have to be 'cut'.

Seems like they are screwing up on budget matters....for several years.

10.  Insurance companies in Germany looking at upping rates on car insurance....for the over-80 crowd (180-percent up)....going to force some seniors to plan dumping their cars by a certain age.

Why Does Germany Have To Consider Entering The Iran War?

 Well....in four weeks....this 'war' likely ends (I presume a break-up and Persia comes to exist with 60-percent of the territory).

Upon a break-up....the US and the Middle East have first 'dibs' on support and contracts.....if you didn't help to bring down the Iran gov't....you will not be welcomed by the new Shah gov't.

Add to this....German-Iranians....are not pro-Iran.....they want the regime to fall.

Pretty simple situation to select sides.

2 March: Germany: 6 Things

 1. Bad case of flu.....now on day 7.  Haven't had this 'level' since early 1990s.  Was  even worse than 2021's Covid.  I've been flu-vax 'free' since 1999....never having more than a 24-hour bug.

2. TUI Cruises' "Mein Schiff 4" is currently located near the attacks on US bases in the port of Port Zayed in Abu Dhabi.  From what was described....some small rocket hit the ship....minor damage.  No one harmed. 2,500 folks on board.

3.  Islamic guy seriously injured several clubgoers in Bielefeld with two knives. Some suggestion that he has a ISIS history.

4. Public TV (ARD/ZDF) hyped-up.....30,000 Germans in the war-zone....gotta-be-rescued. Foreign Ministry....in  middle of the mess. 

Hate to say it....but they'd have to ask the 'evil-Trump' to rescue them out of harm's  way.

5.   My view of the war?

Look....fuel reserves/diesel-gas-jet fuel....enough for about 4 weeks.   After that....nothing is going to move within Iran.  The 'bosses' ran a marginalized economy for forty years....never reflecting upon reality.

They locked down the Straits....meaning nothing gets in or out....screws them as much as everyone else. 

My prediction? In 4 to 6 weeks....Iran breaks up.....probably into 3 new countries.

Persia gets the bulk (renamed)....Kurds get their chunk....SW chunk  goes to 2 or 3 groups.

Mullahs?  They are formerly retired....sent off.  

I'm not describing a perfect solution, but it ends all of the terrorism hype....crazy religious stuff, and the massive layer of incompetence.

6. Gas price shock coming? 

Presently.....German unleaded (E10)...runs around 1.74 Euro per liter.  I'd go and  suggest by Friday....it goes to 1.84, and by next week....1.94.

Same story for LNG.

Why Do The Ban-The-AfD Party Efforts Seem To Have 'Potholes'?

 This past week...a German court came up and said the remarkable efforts to 'control' or 'ban' AfD.....aren't legal.  So the 'lads'/gals over at SPD,  CDU, CSU, Linke, Greens, etc....have to huddle again and  figure out some way of taking AfD down.

Why?   Well...they are on a schedule where things in 2029....will lead to a coalition-problem by 2033's  national election.

To explain this?  To form a coalition...you need a 'winner'....who will partner with your party. In the old days....the CDU-CSU and SPD...together would get  around 60-plus percent of the vote. Presently....the folks  are in the 35-to-40 percent of the vote.

This means a 4th partner.  This generally means text on a agreement....which dilutes your promises to voters.  For  the CDU-CSU folks....it's 'poison'.

AfD's unusual strategy? Well....they suggest that the asylum program, deportations and crime  numbers are a national problem. Presently,  I'd say that 25-percent of  the public readily agree....with another 20-percent asking the SPD, CDU,  and Green parties.....stupid questions.

Part of the issue now goes to deportation issues.  You have 10s of thousands who failed the application or got into legal trouble.  You go back  to the original country and ask them to resolve this by taking 'Marvin' back home.  Well....why would they go and accept 'Marvin' back?

Simply 'dumping' 'Marvin'?  That's not going to happen.

So AfD has the parties in a bind.

One day....probably around 2033....AfD will get 50-percent of the vote and 'win'....without the need of  a coalition....(based on deportation, crime, and asylum issues).  So this ban effort is mostly a effort to prevent that scenario.

I'm not saying AfD is right or wrong...just that they logically picked the weak points of the other parties, and they can't resolve this situation.

I'll also admit....on economics, commerce and jobs....AfD is probably not the folks you want to resolve these issues.

Just Odd

 Since early 2026....you can't help but notice that as public TV in Germany (ARD or ZDF) do public forum chats, and Epstein comes up....the guests/moderator....typically go to the same scripted discussion....that there is only one single 'evil-character' within the files, and it has to be Trump.

Yes, there are various topics they can discuss....without engaging on Epstein.  Germany has 10,000 problems going on, and a thousand of them are better topics than Epstein (who is probably dead).  

The first occasion or two....I just accepted it as part of the 'talk'.

The last time or two....I get up and do the dishes, or try to turn the channel.

I might add here....if you gathered up a thousand working-class Germans....more than half have virtually zero understanding of Epstein.  

Odd Aspect of Baden-Wuerttemberg Upcoming Election

 Polling done recently...compared to 2021 results.

Greens won in 2021....presently have lost 7-points....probably will get 2nd place in this election.

CDU, have 3 points over 2021 results....will likely win.

AfD....have added 9 points over 2021 results....near 19-percent currently.

2031?  Well.....it makes you wonder if the CDU can find a path to stay ahead. 

27 Feb: Germany: 5 Stories

 1.  I noted this week....Poland came up and discovered several 'secret' tunnels dug....into Belarus. No one is saying much over 'use'.  Maybe for black-market purposes....maybe for drugs....maybe for getting refugees into Europe.

2. This term....“worldview-confirmation broadcasts”  is being brought up a good bit with the AI-scandal at ZDF-TV.  German wording...."Weltbild-Bestätigungs-Sendungen".

3.  For reference.....ZDF is located across the river...by Mainz....on a fairly decent hillside. Some ZDF employees have always joked  about the network/location....calling the complex....Märchenberg.

This translates into 'fairy-tale-mountain'.

Yeah, it hints that they make up stories.

4. Koln Administrative Court (yesterday) announced they not only prohibit the classification of the AfD as "confirmed right-wing extremist," but the Office for the Protection of the Constitution is also no longer allowed to disseminate certain statements about the party. 

This probably consumed 6 minutes of the Thursday night 15-minute news piece.

5. Official now.....the next head of state of the Federal Republic of Germany will be chosen on 30 January 2027. The Federal Convention will convene on that date and select the successor to Federal President Steinmeier.

About a 99-percent chance that it'll  be a woman (or transwoman).

Three Observations

 1.  Where Germans get their TV news from?

Well...there are two avenues.

First, there's public TV....ZDF and ARD.   

Second, you have N-24, N-TV, RTL, SAT1, Vox, and Pro-7. (The commercial  TV).

If you watch path 1 or 2....you eventually notice that public TV has the higher amount of climate-change, anti-Trump chatter, and pro-intellectual view-points.  The commercial news?  Mostly factual data....what happened or what changed in the past 24 hours, and condensed enough to avoid being 'too-much'.  

2.  Hamburg authorities approved a massive bridge project...over the Elbe.  Price?  1-billion Euro.  Finished?  Some suggest 2038....it wouldn't shock me if it was 2045 (with issues), and coming closer  to 2-billion Euro.

3.  Berlin-City is putting aside around 1-billion Euro to buy 238,000 trees to plant.  

I'll just go and predict....in 20 years....environmentalists proclaim a serious tree problem...with 150,000 trees to be cut down...for the safety of the city.

26 Feb: Germany: 6 Things

 1.  What is a Relotius-Moment?

It's been used a lot over the past three days.  Claas Relotius was a German journalist working for Der Spiegel (major German news magazine).  Back in 2018, he was exposed for making up details, quotes, and even entire stories in his award-winning articles. This developed into a 4-star scandal, sometimes called "Spiegelgate," involving at least 14 falsified pieces and led to his resignation, the revocation of several journalism awards, and widespread criticism of media practices in Germany. 

So when you utter..."Relotius moment", it refers to a significant journalistic failure or crisis where fabrication, misleading content, or ethical lapses are revealed.

Yeah, ZDF (the public TV folks) are in the middle of such a moment....preferring not to admit such.

At this point....the only AI-scandal member of ZDF to be 'let-go'....is a journalist who complained to the board about the lack of attention of leadership.  

2.  Bus strike in Wiesbaden/Frankfurt area....Friday and Saturday.  Major disruption for bar traffic for the weekend.....several million in losses expected.

3. Austrian police say 'enough'....retiring E-cars from the force.  Reasons?  Poor breaking is often discussed.

4. SPD closing the gap in the Pfalz state election (22 March election day).  SPD ahead at 28-percent, with CDU at 27-percent.  AfD at 19-percent.  Linke at 5-percent....Greens at 9-perent....FW at 5-percent.

Main question....will FW and Linke maintain the 5-percent to get seats?  

5. 20 Sep is the Berlin-City election.  Polls released yesterday....AfD has moved to 2nd place (17-percent).  CDU firmly at 22-percent. SPD at 16-percent.  Linke and Greens  tied at 15-percent each.

6.  Interesting court case in Hamburg unfolding.  Apparently.....some reporters from "Stern" and RTL uncovered the murderous attack plans of a right-wing terrorist youth thug-gang. 

Eight juvenile 'lads' accused.....gang is referred to as the "Last Wave of Defense." Gang boss is 15 years old.

Method of communication?  Interesting detail....WhatsApp.

Reading through the material....the group had hefty goals....recruiting past borders, and eventually overthrowing the German gov't.

The Rocket Science Of Rail Travel

 If you choose to go somewhere in Germany that is an extended trip....once you apply the App, conditions, etc....you will find at least ten different cost variations for the ticket.  Yes, going from A to B....ten variations of cost.

First, there is the choice of 1st class versus 2nd class. 

Then you have the seat reservation matter...on certain routes....you really need to pay the extra cost.

Then you have the time of day affecting the cost.

Then you have the regional train situation versus ICE (high speed rail).

Then you have the matter of  minutes upon arriving at station 'X'....to walk from this point to that point.  Maybe six minutes is enough....maybe you need 20 minutes.

For this trip.....maybe your normal 'Deutschland-ticket' (monthly card) is enough, and you don't need  to use ICE (high-speed rail).  

Tuesday of this week....an encounter came up on a ICE train....conductor doing an audit-ticket-check.  Ivory Coast gal....with only a regular ticket (not a ICE-ticket). This encounter went badly....with the gal physically assaulting the conductor. From the description....not badly, but enough.

What got her hyped-up?  Well....without the ICE ticket, the conductor was going to put her off at the next station (middle of nowhere).

Did the cops get involved?  Yes....detained and details gathered. Investigation now going on....assault and property damage. So there will be court action....I'd assume minimum of a fine...with property-damage part of the situation.    The assault?  Max of five years....but in this case....she might indicate it was a bad day for her, and get zero jail-time.

But all of this trouble (and assault) because of the rocket science 'design' of railway tickets? Yeah.

What Is The Mayor Election (15 Feb) Issue in Strausberg?

 Well....in the mayoral election in Strausberg, a town in Brandenburg, Germany, the primary voting issue revolves around highly suspected electoral manipulation due to the disappearance of over 1,100 postal voting documents. 

The first round of voting occurred on 15 Feb....and the commission running things....declared it invalid because of these irregularities. 

Facts? More or less....some 4,000-plus postal ballot letters were distributed.  As the count started up....only 2,835 were returned to the electoral authority, marking an unusually high non-return rate of about 30 (average is usually 10-percent).

I should add here....you only get a postal ballot...IF YOU REQUEST IT.

Leading candidate?  Patrick Hübner, who received 22.5-percent of the votes overall and 30-percent of postal votes (compared to up to 21-percent for others).  This guy owns a coffee roasting business that just happens to double as the village post office.  

Yeah....this postal connection is a problem.

 He was set to face non-party candidate Annette Binder (21.2-percent) in a run-off on March 15, but the irregularities centered on his handling of postal documents. 

Hübner reportedly documented the declining ballot letters himself instead of using Deutsche Post's neutral process, prompting further scrutiny.  

Criminal complaint?  Yeah....for electoral fraud.

Looking over matters....there's going to be a evidence problem.  But I suspect the commission will just say....vote again....with the mail-in ballots going to another postal system. 

Kinda funny....if they find evidence....the guy might be looking at a year in prison.

25 Feb 2026: Germany: 4 Things

 1.  Poll....related to the CDU and Chancellor (Merz).  

Only 25-percent of Germans think Merz is the right guy to lead the CDU (the others didn't really say who was better).

Two of three folks....think the party will not 'succeed' with Merz as party-boss.

Confidence from a western region prospective....only 27-percent think he can turn things around.  From the eastern region....it's less.

So....an odd thing to ponder....the election from 13 months ago was supposed to dismiss the SPD-path and resolve the economic issues....so far....no one is bragging over the path change.

As for who within the CDU could step forward?  No one is obvious (even Soder of Bavaria).

2.  The German heating law brought to you by the Green Party....hyping up the heat-pump stuff....has been dissolved.   So natural gas and oil heat....are back in the offerings. 

3.   The ZDF (public TV) news-editorial team noted that their guidance is geared toward only producing “worldview-confirmation broadcasts.”

I had to look up the wording/meaning.

So if you were told to produce worldview-confirmation broadcasts.....you make video that only agrees with the majority of viewers.  If viewers believe 'A-B-C'....that's what you produce. You would never produce disagreeable material.

My humble thought....if ARD is doing the same thing, why have two public TV network-news teams?  I'd even go a step further....couldn't you dismiss half the production-team....letting AI make the  agreeable material?

4.  Something odd from yesterday.  The ZDF Mittagsmagazin (morning show on public TV)....did a week-or-two archive piece about the supposed lack of snow in alpine ski resorts in Germany.

Oddly....about five or six minutes pass....different news item....they now report winter flooding in exactly the same locations.

I'll admit my German isn't great, but looking at the images...brief commentary...yeah...I don't believe the edit-team is paying attention. 

Four Bits of Advice

 1.  If all this hyped-up ZDF AI-scandal bothers you this bad (1,000,000 commentaries via social media)....then just turn ZDF off, or mute it.  You can survive without news.

2.   If you are flying out of most German airports....be aware that almost all have a closure time.  What that means?  If your closure time is 11 PM....with the plane scheduled to take off at 10:40, with problems occurring, and at 11:05....the pilot halts the flight...it's pretty good odds  that the plane will return to a parking ramp. It's also pretty good odds that the bus crews who would  pick you up at the plane...are OFF-shift.

My advice?  Never sign up for a 10 PM or later flight.

3. If traveling by train in Germany....during the winter, and there's some hint of bad weather, you need to ask if this trip is necessary?  If so, what's the plan 'B' situation?

4. The Düsseldorf Administrative Court came up yesterday....over a promotion problem....they ruled that a police commissioner was rightly excluded from a promotion.  Realizing he wouldn't get the promotion....he/she changed their gender entry solely from male to female in order to benefit from women's promotion quotas. 

Yeah....you can use the rules in some manner....to get promoted, and it's not illegal.

Würzburg Central Station Attack?

 From yesterday mornings episode at the Würzburg Central Station....cops say the Afghan guy (age 35) approached with a knife and gave some stabbing impression on the first guy (not really attacking). 

This was around 7:50 AM.

Then some type of actual assault occurred with two more guys.

At this point....a plainclothes police officer came up, and put the guy on the ground.  

Case closed? Well...I'm guessing today....some judge will give the order for the guy to go through a 30-day 'hold' in a mental facility.  Afterwards....he'll have to prove his mental stability.

In this case....it's like I 'preach'....always be vigilant in public situations around Germany.  There's always potential for nutcases.  

24 Feb 2026: Germany: 7 Stories

1.  I read through some German social media today.....some German talks up a conversation with an associate....on  the impending social media ban on kids.  Then as a side-note....he brings up Epstein.

Well...the associate apparently knew absolutely nothing about this Epstein guy.  So this brings up a personal opinion of mine....that if you quizzed Germans...probably about 50-percent know nothing much on Epstein. If your news come primarily via public TV and maybe 15 minutes of daily-reading some German newspaper....no, you don't know the guy.  It's only in the past six to eight weeks that ZDF or ARD really hyped-up content on Epstein. 

2.  The newest EU-control regulation?  Well...it came up this AM....the EU wants to end this hotel-shampoo/soap product in the small container.  They believe it's a waste.

If it goes through?  You'd see funny dispenser containers in the hotel bathroom....attached to the wall....normal sized.  Yeah, I would imagine within 4 years...even that would be mandated into non-existence. Finding the small containers at the grocery?  Those likely disappear as well. 

Eventually....even the small booze bottles will come to be a 'problem'.

3.   Just a weird story....election fraud talked about in Strausberg (Brandenburg). Police called in.  Mayor election business.

From what is described.....postal votes corrupted in some fashion.  Apparently one of the candidates for mayor....had some type of access to postal ballots.

4.  Complicated story unfolding.....German medical study done on Covid-PCR test reliability.  What the PhD guys are saying?  Around 80-percent of people who were tested in the Covid-era with PCR test....were false-positive.

Meaning?  They had no actual Covid.  But the test said otherwise.  My belief?  They had a symptom or two....leading to a test....probably a normal cold.

The general reaction?  Well....the high number of PCR positive tests....are what led to pushing the vax-business.  I'm not saying it was intentional, but it adds a funny layer to the whole story.

On me? I had Covid on two occasions (at least the PCR tests said that).  I won't argue the first bout.   But the second bout was awful mild, and I'm of the mindset that it was merely a cold.

Further note....how many PCR tests did I have from beginning to end?  Well...pretty close to 60....of which the gov't paid for all of them. Of that....only two tests were ever positive.  

4.  Some German on social media noted a Epstein 'problem'.  Counting up....literally millions of e-mails that he wrote....the German wondered how he had all this 'free' time....to lounge with VIPs....engage in intelligence gathering...write e-mails, etc.

It's a valid point....maybe there were two (or three) Epsteins in existence? Or was AI already existing in the past 30 years.....writing most of Epstein's emails?

5. ZDF (the public TV folks).....had a all-hands on-line 'call' yesterday....for roughly 1,100 employees.  Someone noted the chatter for the public (I don't think management wanted that out in the open). 

It was basically to reassure people...things were under control, and that they must never allow another AI-scandal to occur again.

The one thing I learned....the 'reader' of the news gets the video-report, and in that 30-minutes before the live telecast....writes several lines of their own material....to introduce the video-report.  So in the odd sense....they aren't just a 'reader'. But then....is writing three or four sentences....a journalist?

6.  As of today....1461 days of war....for Ukraine/Russia.

Assuming another 365 days?  Yeah.

Russia finished as a nation in the next year?  Grocery prices finally hitting critical  costs, and lacking military manpower will reach a point where they can't do much of anything.

7.   Hesse has local elections on 15 March.

Frankfurt has 93 city council seats to fill. There are 22 parties in the mix to vote up 93 candidates. 

The ballot was displayed yesterday....1.44 meters wide (roughly 4.5 feet wide).

Attack Story

 This AM....Wuzburg train station....knife  attack.

So what the German police say...Afghan guy....got hyped-up about three German men (ages 51, 55, and 68).

Jehovah's witness folks.

Yes....he was disturbed by them in some  way....attempted to knife them. So far....minor wounds mentioned.  Other  folks grabbed the knife guy before he did serious damage. 

13k Euro Per Day 'Rehab'?

 Sarah Ferguson (ex-wife of the prince)....checked into a Swiss re-hab unit....that runs around 13,000 Euro per day...over the weekend.

What they say (the rehab guys)....you have a personal crew of around a dozen folks....to handle your needs.

I sat and pondered upon this. 

Yeah, you probably get three meals a day....free wine....at least one personal  massage.

What kind of addiction deserves this? I have no idea.

Who pays for her?  Someone in the ultra-rich category.....maybe even Epstein himself.

How This Youth Social Media Ban Might Go?

 CDU position?  Once in effect.....no kid in Germany under the age of 16 would get social  media.  All types?  Well....they didn't say that.  

At 14?  Then you'd be in a special group, until your 16th birthday...where you'd get a youth 'version' of social  media.  This description?  Not really defined.

At 16?  You get big-boy status....full-up crazy-crazy social media.

Will the under-14 group just accept this?  I'd say....99-percent confident....no, they will work their way around.

This EU-ID-wallet gimmick?  The only way it can fit  is that EVERYONE has a ID, and participates in some  way.  On the cloud?  It appears so.  Target for hackers?  Oh yeah.

Cloud likely to be taken down once or twice a week....when you need the function to operate?   I'm pretty confident.

AfD likely to taken a anti-social media ban position?  Well...so far, they haven't said much of anything.  

People taking a position? Most Germans agree that some limit on youth has to occur (I'd put the number at 75-percent).  But the minute you suggest that everyone has to be involved in the wallet-digital-ID....for literally every function in life....I'd put the number supporting that near 30-percent.

Why the age 14/15 getting some status?  Some states have a voting age of 16 for state/local elections.  They want you to get some media BS....to hype you up.

Once it's established that it failed, and age 12 year old kids figured a work-around?  Well....it's the Chancellor's mess to clean-up and admit problems.  

23 Feb 2026: Germany: 4 Stories

 1. Chinese coffee company starting up shops in Germany....Cotti is the name.

Key plus?  Well....cup of espresso 99-Euro-cents. That's about 50 cents less than  typical average German espresso.  Premium?  Well....I have yet to taste it so I can't say.  Problem?  Very few shops open in Germany....none in Wiesbaden.

2. Snow chaos popped up over the weekend in Munich's airport....500 folks were left stranded on planes, after the flights were cancelled, and no crews left to move them with buses.

3.  CDU Party pushing for a sugar-tax.  Leadership on the push-side, but most of voter-membership aren't thrilled.

4.  The wife and I have a new hot-air fryer.....upon opening the box....no operations manual.  Instead, it wanted us to scan the barcode, and download the instruction/book to the tab.  If we didn't have the tab?  Well....I guess we were screwed. 

ZDF And AI-Training?

 I sat this AM and read through a piece.....management at ZDF (the public TV folks) have decided the scandal has reached a level where 'training' is required.

So all journalists are being signed up and to be given training.   What type?  Unknown.

My German wife asked me about training for AI about a year ago....which I  found a business-news service which offered a basic intro course.  It was enough to convince her to be firmly anti-AI in the end. (I'm not sure this was the right course for her)

What'll happen to the ZDF folks after the training?  That's the primary question I'm wondering about.

The present mentality with their particular journalists...is mostly to construct a news piece which urges you to take a position, feel a passion about, or simply to generate emotion.  AI was a tool in that process....which you have to identify it as official-AI if you still intend to use it in the news process.

The funny thing?  Well....whoever ZDF hired to provide training....might actually be a AI-manager, and AI itself might be 'teaching' or instructing.

Me?  If I were running the network....I'd hire AI to oversee all news pieces and 'warn' if AI-processes or AI-images or AI-video or AI-fake-people were built into the newscast.

Four Observations

 1.  This past week, with all the AI-turmoil with ZDF (public tv)....they kinda admitted that the selected news 'package' that arrives for the 'reader' and producer/editor....comes about 30 minutes prior to the newscast. So there's  barely enough time to go over or challenge the wording/video.  The 'reader' is really a job that anyone could fill...even a barber or welder.

2.   Lithuania: This attempt to have a deployed German brigade stationed there (permanently)....is apparently 'failing'.  Chief issue?  You have to be a volunteer, and even with bonus-pay and nicer housing/barracks....they aren't getting many volunteers.

3.  German Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt gave a interview....says he wants to get asylum seekers into work quick.

The wording? Asylum seekers should be allowed to work after three months of residence in Germany, even if their asylum procedure has not yet been completed. There is 'funny' text here....you aren't obligated to work.

4.  Odd wording by CDU....they want 'protective' zones around schools....where cellphones would be prohibited....during school periods. 

22 Feb 2026: Germany: 8 Things

 1. Curious....from the big CDU Party meeting in Stuttgart (starting Friday)....from ARD/ZDF public TV, the sub-networks for public TV, and public radio.....200-plus folks 'deployed' at the party meeting.   You can figure they were already there probably on  Wed...preparing.   Lot of hotel cost.  Probably over a thousand interviews packaged.  

2.  From Focus this AM....news piece....China now actively getting into the heat-pump manufacturing business....trying to downsize the German-'slice'.  It is a hefty-cost if you a EU-heat-pump....if you showed up with a Chinese pump that was 30-percent cheaper....very likely to take business away.

3.  Another Focus item of curiosity.....statistics showing prices in general exploding in Germany....but more so in three states (Bremen, Brandenburg, and Bavaria)....since 2020....upwards to 21-percent.  Ifo numbers....so they aren't bogus.

Hamburg's rate of increase?  Closer to 2-percent.

4.  Odd discussions  going on....how to rack-and-stack the list of people for the job of German President.  Several parties saying it now has to be a woman. Early 2027....this comes up.

Personally, I think the answer is to get a Transwoman up for the job.

5.  Normally, to vote in German elections....you need a 'fixed' address...meaning if you were homeless, you can't vote.

So I noted....the state of Hesse....worked up a rule that would include them. You basically sign a registration form...saying for the past six weeks....you've lived 'here' (city park, train station, woods, under-the-bridge, etc). Note: you still are required to a national ID card.

6.  Another bus-strike for Wiesbaden next week.  Becoming a regular thing.

7. When this age-deal occurs on German social media (likely by spring 2027)....I'm wondering if student-strikes (walking out of class) will occur.

The Greta-kids/Fridays For The Future crowd....require social media to get the 'word' out.  

CDU-chatter....age 14 and under....zero social media connectivity.  Age 14/15....some connectivity but your parents would have to sign off.

I doubt that the parties have realized the full impact of their actions.

8.  Watched a N-TV news bit.....two of three German women are fearful of using public transportation at night.

Explaining The EU Digital ID Wallet (EUDI Wallet)

It is in a developmental stage.....a secure mobile app being developed under the European Union's updated eIDAS 2.0 regulation. 

It's designed to serve as a digital ID and personal wallet for EU citizens, residents, and businesses, allowing them to prove their identity online, store and share verified digital documents, and sign transactions across member states in a privacy-focused way.

It would keep control of personal data, rather than relying on third-party platforms that might track or monetize it.

You'd have the 'cookie', and it'd access some secure cloud.

Full rollout?  The talk is first  half of 2027.

Problems? First, it was introduced as a concept as being 'voluntary'.  A lot of talk in the past 3 months in  Germany....it'd be more than voluntary.

Second issue....some now suggest it has to force users to use real-names....for social media.

Third issue....who else has access, besides you?

Fourth issue....the odds that the Russians and Chinese are already trying to get access to the cloud?  

Fifth issue....forcing all visitors/guests/tourists into the EU to participate as well?  

By early 2027....I expect this to be a highly politicized issue in Germany.

Thrilled With Potholes/Patches In My Village

 I live in a village of about  4,000 folks.  There are three streets/roads that lead in and  out of the village.

Yesterday, I 'tested' all three exits/entrances.  If you start counting potholes/patch-work.....it's probably around 2,000.

The past twelve months?  A lot worse.  

We drove at one point over to the next village....to the grocery.  On that back-road...about 4 km....if you start counting, there's in the range of 1,000 potholes/patches.

Weather and salt-related? Well....you just start to wonder.

The Problem In Lacking Skepticism

 Wolfgang Herles wrote a commentary piece for Focus (here)....which goes to the topic of ZDF's (public TV) anti-Trump discussion.

Emphasis?  Well....the suggested political bias of the ZDF editorial staff.  Rather than insert some necessary skepticism towards unreliable sources...they seem to disregard the skepticism.

If you watch commercial German news....like Sat-1, N-TV, or N-24....the layer of use for unreliable sources/video....is a lot less.  It's been this way since 2016.

I would offer the commentary....some viewers of the nightly ZDF news...probably are affected by events in the past week.  At the very least....if a anti-Trump piece pops up....they might mute the piece until they move onto the next news item.

21 Feb 2026: Germany: 14 Stories

 1.   What is Prince Andrew really detained over?

Well...if you go back around ten years ago....it appears that Lord Mandelson helped secure the job of UK trade envoy for Prince Andrew against the wishes of the King. And somewhere in the information stages....Andrew probably gave sensitive info to the 'other' party.  Money involved?  Well....no one says that, so you wonder about black-mail.

Jail-time?  If this goes to court....he'd spend the rest of his life there. However, I'm more likely to believe that he'll offer juicy evidence on Mandelson and others....to avoid charges. Other option?  He might not be in a good state of mind (meaning  suicide).

2.  This weekend CDU Party meeting in Stuttgart?  Supposed to be a big deal....leading up to the 5 state elections in Germany for remainder of 2026.

3. ZDF (public TV) still cleaning up from the AI-story mess.  Appears that the bureau chief for ZDF in NY City....'let-go'.  

4.  Crazy weather for next week predicted....weather guy talking about plus-14 for 2 or 3 days (57 F).  Whole week might be plus-10 weather.

5. Planning for the Berlin-City election (Sep) is already in focus.  No intention of repeating the chaos from 5 years ago....where they had to repeat the election.

6.  Deutsche Bank CEO asks a public  question....why do Germans use twice as many sick days....as Swiss folks.

Pro-sick attitude?  Stress double of what Swiss folks suffer?  You would think that some PhD group would study this.  I suspect  that Swiss doctors are more unlikely to issue a sick-slip....even for a day or two.

My German wife used to work with a co-worker....who typically burned up 30-plus days a year in sick-leave......every single year....on top of regular leave.

7.  Just odd....CDU Party talking up the idea of sending bad-boy criminals at age  12....to some kind of jail-house (increasing urban problem)....but at same time....saying a social media-ban has to be introduced....age 16 and under.

You'd think if a kid is old enough for jail-house....probably old enough for social media.

8.  At the CDU party congress meeting in Stuttgart yesterday....the planned electronic vote on the re-election of party leader Friedrich Merz simply did not work. 

All that NRW Digital Minister Ina Scharrenbach could say....'strong technical irregularities at several points that currently cannot be explained.' 

So they went to paper-ballots.

Russians?  Well....no one said this but I would imagine everyone had this thought.

9. Odd story....from DW.....around 1.9 million German folks with university-level qualifications were at risk of poverty in 2025, an increase of 350,000 compared with 2022.

The emphasis of this?  Well....you go and spend four to six years in college....you expect results....not poverty.

Now...what isn't in the numbers released.....what areas of expertise? It might be a quarter of these folks in arts/music.

10.  Syrian gov't meeting with German gov't.....saying things are fragile right now....so don't send back refugees that were on the deportation list.

11. Just odd....Ramadan started up this week in Germany.....it got noticed that Muslim youths are acting as “religious police” in German schools during Ramadan and forcing students to fast. 

Reaction by teachers?  Frustration....students are getting dehydrated because they are forbidding students from drinking. What's odd here....you go back to 2015 or 2020....this type of student enforcement simply didn't occur.  

12.  This past week....deportation flight was arranged...carrying 49 folks back to Ghana, Cameroon and Nigeria. Cost?  102 police were engaged for the day.....380k Euro.

13.  Doesn't-make-sense story.  A theater group in Magdeburg is planning a production about the attack on the Christmas market in 2024. 

Key feature?  The play is supposed to address how right-wingers are allegedly politically exploiting the act.

Yeah, lot of frustration in general....play doesn't appeal to the bulk of locals.

14.  Frankfurt paper brought up a interesting topic...the Australian social media ban for youth.

They sent out a journalist that talked to teens 'affected'.

Almost ALL of the kids in the banned-age group.....STILL had access via various go-arounds.

Murder Story Unfolding

 Police were called to a house in  the Allgau region (far south, Baden-Wurttemberg state)...Steinheim is the village.

Two bodies found....older German couple (mid-60s).

This was late on Wed night.  So by Thursday AM....suspect picked up...45-year old Iraqi guy.

Motive at this point?  Zero.

Problem?  Well....on 8 March....there's set to be a state election.  Up to this point...AfD was set for a 3rd place win (20-percent in polling in past week).  Greens set for 21-percent, and CDU likely to win with 29-percent.

Over the next two weeks....a shift?  It's possible that some voters who were non-AfD-types....will pause over this,  and vote AfD.  I'm not talking about a major shift...but I might go to suggest a 3-point  upward tick for AfD, and both CDU and Greens losing  a point each (probably same story for SPD). 

You could have a scenario where the CDU still wins (say with 27-percent) and their intended partner in the coalition....the Greens...get 19-percent)....meaning it's not enough to reach 50-plus percent. 

This means a 3-party coalition (likely CDU-Greens-FDP or CDU-Greens-SPD).  It's not the end of the world, but it weakens the CDU brand.

20 Feb 2026: Germany: 3 Stories

 1.  Three observations over nightly public TV news (ARD/ZDF) here in  Germany;

-The 7 PM and 8 PM news....have a 'reader'....who simply presents what was already packaged for them by the 'chief', the 'bureau-chiefs' and junior journalists.  They have good speaking habits and superior pronunciation. If you have a problem with the quality of the news....the 'reader' is the last person on the list to get peeved about.

- At least once a month, I'll notice in the middle of some news-package....music (usually sinister/evil tunes).  At that point....I know it's not a ARD or ZDF creation....some foundation or lecture-group built it. It's built like propaganda....but I doubt that the ARD/ZDF news crew even realize what they accepted.   

- I hate to suggest it....but I'll predict within five years....the news-reader for  public-TV here....probably will be AI.   

2. DB (railway folks) Cargo....will dismiss 6,000 workers over the next year.  Order?  They have to reach a level of profitability.

3.  Some rumor starting up....ECB (European Central Bank) 'boss' (Lagarde) might be stepping down. Some additional rumor that Germany is trying to arrange a prime candidate to be the replacement. 

Did Chancellor Merz Say Germany Needs More Migrants?

 NO.  What he said was....the country needs more migrants, emphasizing the need for those who come to work and integrate into the labor market....NOT to live off social benefits. 

I've read various commentaries....but he was pretty clear....this was a broader discussion on migration policy, where he highlighted the importance of distinguishing between legal, work-oriented immigration and the other 'opposite-type'.

I'll just say it....there's a lot of BS these days, and you need to pay attention to the whole speech.

Press Freedom Story

 I noted this story a week ago....pausing over it,  and analyzing.....the2025 World Press Freedom Index (RSF) assigned the USA to position 57 (out off 180 countries).

I pondered over this....there's seven problems.

First, the business plan that most newspapers had in the1960s/1970s....has failed. Somewhere in the 1980s....folks stopped reading a daily paper.

Second, the 1990s solution of bundling up dozens of newspapers....selling them off, and having one real producer of 'text'....gave folks more reason to end reading. Folks wanted local stories or state stories....not so much national politics.

Third, as local TV stations took over public attention.....these stations also got bundled up, and their news content (for locals) became less, and less.

Fourth, no one hindered ABC, NBC, CBS, PBS, MSNBC, or CNN....they all continued their 'slant' on news, and fewer people seemed to watch.

Fifth....basically the same story for WaPo and NY Times.

Sixth, podcasts caught on.

Press freedom?  You can print anything you desire....but if folks won't read it, or pay for it....what good is it?

Cleaning Things Up Story

 The city of Heilbronn has implemented new city code to improve things.

First....spitting is punishable by a 70-Euro fine. 

Second....finishing up and throwing a cigarette on the ground? 70-Euro fine.

Third.....leaving dog feces behind....140-Euro fine.

Fourth....urinating in public....140-Euro (with a 28-Euro processing fee).

How many folks fined for 2025?  Around 138 total.

What Would Happen If German Public TV Adapted The Swiss Rule....List Nationalities of 'Bad-Boys'?

 The Swiss national TV folks went to a new policy...if there's a assault or crime, and police have custody of the identified person....they can list the guy's nationality/ethnic group.

Yeah, it's likely to change public perception in  Switzerland.....rather quickly.  I would imagine within two years....a majority of Swiss will ask for legislation to change things. 

ARD or ZDF (German public TV) to head in this direction?  No.  They would have to be ordered to do this, and fight the order tooth-and-nail.

Most all highly urbanized metropolitan cities in Germany....will say they have a bigger problem today...than 25 years ago.  Blame?  It tends to go toward drugs, and criminal clans/gangs.   The gangs/clans being ethnic German?  Well....no (it's just awful rare).  Most relate to Serbian, Lebanese, Albanian, Turkish, Russian, Polish, Syrian, Chechen, Italian, and Vietnamese (oddly, strictly smokes smuggling).

If this were forced?  You might see a voting trend....where it was determined that public safety to be a bigger issue than the economy.  

What's The Real Threat Of AfD In Germany?

 So....after all the political commentary and accusations....there is one fundamental issue.

Once AfD gets up around 30-percent of the vote (federal election)....they CAN'T form a coalition (yes, wake-up and simply grasp this reality).

So the number two winner (the CDU-CSU)...with around 22-to-24 percent....gets the nod.   

They (the CDU-CSU) have to go and talk to the SPD and Greens (figure both combined will have just around 22-percent).  This 'deal' chatter?  You have to get to the bottom line of CDU-CSU 'promises' and figure 60-to-70 percent cut/gone. Then you have to sit at a  table where both the SPD and Greens lay out all kinds of stuff that conservatives can't stand. Then you go to the CDU-CSU membership and just say 'suck-it-up' and just accept it.

Then you go through four miserable years where half of the CDU-CSU voters are shaking their heads....hating every single week,  and edging closer and closer to voting AfD next time around (getting closer to that 50-percent level).

This is the Godzilla-like fear that exists with the AfD. It's not 2029 that worries folks....it's the 2033 (or earlier if the coalition fails) election that worries folks.

19 Feb 2026: Germany: 10 Stories

 1.  US State Department is apparently building an online portal called freedom .gov to let people in Europe and beyond access content banned by local governments.

Yeah, it's like a 1960s version of Radio-Free-Europe....for the internet.  

And yes, it makes some countries appear almost Soviet-like (in a comical way)..

2. Copenhagen is apparently now re-examining nuclear energy....to rebuild some type of grid stability reserve.

Now....if you were in this Danish discussion....would you build to 100-perecent, or to 200-percent....to sell grid-power to the Germans (at a hefty rate)?  

3.  Non-German patient (38-year old Algerian) at the Bedburg mental facility (fenced-in/controlled)....threatened staff with a box-cutter/utility knife  (don't ask how he got it). Staff fled into a safe room. Federal SEK unit sent to re-establish order.....guy taken prisoner.

4.  Kinda funny.....Thuringian Minister-President Mario Voigt (CDU Party)...got caught up in a minor scandal.

Being Minister-President....he sits on the MDR (public TV network for the region) Broadcasting Council.  He gets about 800 Euro a month as expense allowance (food/beverages and probably one night a month for hotel costs).

Well....someone asked about attending meetings....he hasn't attended a single one of the twelve meetings since March 2024. 

5.  Someone pointed  out yesterday....three hotel chains in Germany have gone bankrupt in the past 15 months: Lindner, Achat, Revo. 

Occupancy in general....across Germany....down.   As much as we talk about recovery after Covid....it's a marginal recovery.

6. I noticed a humor piece off social media yesterday...."They fall for every AI scam", German teens demand social media ban for people over 40.

As funny as it sounds....if you engaged with a few German teens (say ages 15/16)....they'd be pretty cynical/sarcastic over where things in the past year or two have gone (they aren't that stupid).

7. I probably wasted 90 minutes over the past two days analyzing the ZDF (public TV) scandal over the US ICE operation and  the AI-chatter.

So....ZDF has spoken up to an admission of errors in a report about ICE operations.

Primary screw-up?  The ZDF folks used AI-generated images without proper attribution. 

But as you look at the footage....it's archive stuff....(probably 3-to-4 years, from the Biden era)....then built into a ZDF package....the context of current deportation measures.

Yeah, it's stupid stuff you'd do as a first-year college student.

A few months ago....I sat and watched a 1979 ARD news piece (15-minutes, prime-time news).  Ninety-percent was written/read material....without much video. Today?  They seem to be pressured....associate video to the spoken word.

8. Crazy talk....car brands Vauxhall, Citroen, Fiat and Peugeot say they will 'resurrect' the availability of diesel engines.  

German guys almost weeping (gleefully).....diesel engines can't be terminated.

9. Italy's former President Francesco Cossiga....gave a talk yesterday.  He told Italy's Corriere della Sera (newspaper)....that the 9-11 attacks "were run by the CIA and Mossad and that this was common knowledge amongst global intelligence agencies."

I would imagine if you went around the EU....75-percent of politicians now believe this.  

10.  MDR (public TV) did a piece over Gen-Z Germans.  The Gen-Z crowd feels politically underrepresented, and see themselves as disadvantaged.  Future? Crappy.

A majority seem to have little interest in politics. 

Three Topics

 1. VAT discussion: going from 19-percent to 21-percent.

Look....most of the EU has a 20-to-21 percent VAT.  Finland has a 25.5-percent VAT.  Hungary even has a 27-percent VAT.  So it's not the end of the world if they go to 21-percent.  If you were peeved....you could always shop still in Lux-City....where it's 17-percent VAT.

Now....what should worry you....if this discussion comes up in 2030....to go up to 23-percent.  

2.  This social media age-discussion.

This age thing is centered on Tik Tok, FB, Twitter, Instagram. However....both the CDU and SPD are avoiding a 'list'.

WhatsApp and SnapChat?  I would guess near 90-percent of 12-year old German kids have a cellphone, and actively use WhatsApp.  If you tried to list on a forbidden list....parents might get hyped-up.  SnapChat?  Well....there's forums for talking over subjects, and I would imagine the ban would include them.

Telegram?  It's sorta  on the bad-boy list....so they might get dumped on the list.

VKontakte (VK)?  Popular in Russia and half of eastern Europe......oddly, no one mentions them, but the coalition might consider them just as 'dangerous'.   

Mastodon?  Decentralized alternative similar to X, based in Germany.  No one seems to mention them. 

Bluesky? Decentralized social network gaining some traction as an X alternative. Leftist?  Well....yeah.  Oddly, they aren't mentioned on the age discussion. 

Pixelfed?  Not mentioned......but decentralized image-sharing platform similar to Instagram. 

W? Not mentioned. Newly announced European platform positioned as an X alternative, emphasizing EU data rules (launched in 2026). 

Monnet?  Not mentioned. Luxembourg-based alternative to X. 

Steemit?  Not mentioned.  Blockchain-based social platform. 

TRUTH Social: Niche platform associated with U.S. politics, with some EU availability. 

Tribel?  Not mentioned. Emerging social network

So I'll state the obvious....the ban chatter will occur....ONLY with certain platforms,  and the kids  will all drift to non-age-ban platforms.  While the CDU and SPD will pat themselves on the back for saving German youth....99-percent will drift to other platforms.

3.  Natural gas reserves....as of yesterday....22.3-percent left.

This marginal amount is now getting traction. On the positive?  Well....Sat/Sun are slatted to be near 10C (50 F).  For most of next week....near 8C.

The number/amount will probably bottom-out by mid-March....near16-percent.

I did notice some discussion starting up on Twitter....Germans asking why they can't drill for natural gas on their soil.

Rest of the Story From January

 I talked about this in mid-January....29-year-old Eritrean guy stabbed two MediaMarkt employees in Ulm with a knife.  One of the two fairly serious wound.  Knife guy ran....threatened police officers with the blade....ended up being shot (alive).

So, the rest of the story from this AM.

Knife-guy arrived in Germany in 2017 as a “refugee”.

Apparently.....he had stabbed someone else back in Neu-Ulm in 2020.  For this....he got 3.5 years in prison plus additional sentences for drugs. Left in  Dec 2025.

Here's the thing....his status was initially revoked in 2023 and he had an obligation to leave Germany since 2024....HOWEVER....Eritrea won't take the guy back.  So Germany is left with no solution.

Current game?  Assess his mental situation...maybe this time...sign off that he's permanently crazy.  Sign off that he's OK, and send off to a court situation....probably getting another 3.5 to 5 years of jail.

The problem is.....each month that passes, you have another assault like this which occurs, and hypes up the public to support the AfD....because the other folks (CDU, Greens, SPD) can't seem to make the street safe (the perception).  

Blunt truth?  Probably 98-percent of 'guests' are safe, and trying to fit into German society.  Reaching some level of figuring out the 2-percent and what to do with them?  That's the tricky part of the problem, and no one really wants to be the 'Einstein' to create a fix.

Personally, if I were the a 3rd-world country with nutcases....yeah, I'd do everything possible to get them to be someone else's 'problem'. Germany just hasn't realized that yet.

Footnote:  Going back to 2013....when I got my visa....I thought the Germans would test me for mental stability.  Well....no....they seemed to be  automatically accepting me....even if I were a nutcase.

Ten Ways That You Might Be Viewing Propaganda

First, early on within the news piece....it seems very emotionally-driven....with fear, anger or some nationalist appeal. Balance of facts....seems to be lacking.

Second,  there's just one single side of the story discussed.

Third, at some point....facts/sources....seem vague, anonymous, or missing.

Fourth....Repetitive catchphrases throughout the piece....should be a 'hint'.

Fifth, if something seems demonized (bad crap)....without addressing arguments, that's another 'hint'.

Sixth....some data gets used, but it seems to be cherry-picked....that's a 'hint'.

Seventh....if it all seems driven as 'black-and-white'......that's a 'hint'.

Eighth....'experts' are introduced, but you never know their background.

Ninth....there's something odd....a call-to-action done by the end.  That's a 'hint'.

Finally...if they use dramatic music, or somewhat biased visuals....it's propaganda.

(I'll just say....about once a day now, I catch myself looking at a propaganda piece.)

Three Q-and-A's

 1. Isn't it odd that the SPD Party selected age 14 and under to ban from social media.....but added age 14 to 16 in a approved use of social media?

Look....several German states allow age 16 for state/EU voting (Baden-Württemberg, Berlin, Brandenburg, Bremen, Hamburg, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, and Schleswig-Holstein).  In a normal federal election....you have to be 18.  

They need an introduction phase/'help'...so it would make sense to allow social media action around age 14/15....to get them thrilled on politics.

Oddly....the CDU Party wants age 16 as the ban-age.

2. Chancellor actually said that Rubio was 'Trump-in-a-friendlier-package'?

Yeah....spoken yesterday.  I would point out from the MSC over the weekend....Rubio got a standing ovation from the crowd.

3. With 41 new data-centers planned within Germany....by 2030....won't there be this major electrical 'need' required?

This is a rather odd discussion.  2,845 MW of grid-added capacity by 2029 is mentioned.

So....is there some secret nuke-energy requirement likely to come up?  You would think that.

Fire Story

So I'll try to tell this story in a simple way.

In the past week....up around Schwaigern (near Heilbronn)....there was this E-car...that caught on fire.  Neither the police or fire-department have a clear theory on this yet.

But as the fire 'raged'....next to it was a RV....which happened to have LP gas  containers.....where things got hot enough.....that they exploded. The RV is mostly 'toast'.  

Then....several cars were closed enough....that they caught on fire.

Then a couple of residential buildings.....caught on fire.

Yeah, I guess the insurance guys will have a half-day of work to figure some end-game check.

17 Feb 2026: Germany: 8 Extra Stories

 1.  My German wife is dedicated to particular brands.  For appliances....she's a Miele-freak.  

Miele products? Well...they are German-made (still today)....tend to last ten-plus years without issue, and generally are 30-percent more than the competition.

Yesterday I noted....2027 is the last year that Miele will make a washer inside of Germany.  All of the washer production....then goes to Poland. Reasoning?  They avoid this discussion, but it's mostly labor costs in Germany.

2. New poll by IPSOS.....AfD nationally at 26-percent. CDU-CSU at 23-percent.

SPD limping along at 15-percent. Greens at 13-percent, and Linke at 12-percent.

Were elections held today....AfD would win but be unable to form  a coalition.  The bad news?  CDU-CSU would have to form with both the Greens and SPD.  Were the FDP to get over the hump with 5-percent....it's possible that five parties required to get a coalition.

3.  Mövenpick-Hotel in Frankfurt...the big operation next to the expo-halls?  Bankrupt.

Was a big deal in the years when they had several big trade shows in Frankfurt....less so since Covid.

Built in 2006....it offered a 4-star situation and was one of the big hotels in the city to stay.  

4.  German Federal Police note more than 980 knife attacks and 2,200 sexual offenses were recorded on railway stations and trains for 2025.

5. Opel came up in the past week.....saying they are 'still' committed to making diesel cars....after throwing around  20 billion Euro at E-car technology.

If you came up to a thousand German diesel car owners and asked where their 'path' lays....I suspect 99-percent will say still with diesel technology.

6. Some note over the natural gas reserves for Germany, for this AM (Tuesday)....23.1-percent remaining.

For southern one-third of Germany....temp's for next 10 days will be mostly around  0 to 5-plus C (daytime temps).

At the current pace....somewhere around 1 March....I might predict a national crisis period (probably as they reach 15-percent remaining).

Footnote....as each LNG ship arrives and 'delivers'.....it's basically adding 1-percent of LNG to the reserves.   So you would need twenty deliveries over a month to really bring the worry-level down. 

7.  WELT had an odd piece....talking over upcoming Ramadan....that young Islamic folks seem to be gearing up to act 'religious-police'....enforcing the 'rules'.

It's hard to say....how many Muslims in Germany are totally obedient about Ramadan rules.  Back in my German language days....I posed the question to a Syrian guy, who observed....most (say over 50-percent) cheated in some fashion...usually having a hidden water bottle.  As he noted....the obedient folks usually got themselves to a serious dehydration point (near passing out).

8. INSA poll....German public is even MORE dissatisfied with Merz, than they were with Scholz.  

It is about a year into the Merz-era, and the 'wind' expected a year ago....the economy would finally settle, and show recovery.  Well....it hasn't done so. But here's the thing....there's literally no one from the Greens or SPD who can project with confidence....a better economic period. And no....same deal with AfD.

There is no replacement scenario to play with.

Five Negative Indicators Of The German Economy

 I  probably spend around 15 hours a week....looking at business news in general....from across the globe (more so the US, and to some degee...German trends).  So....five things I've noted here early in 2026:

1. There is a rising German government deficit.  The general government balance is predicted to get worse....around minus-4-percent of the GDP in 2026.  

Why?  Well...fiscal policies are noted, and increased spending.  If you looked for historical comparisons....it's something you haven't seen in 40-plus years.

2.  The gov't lowered it's GDP growth forecast.  The growth for 2026?  Around .8-percent.....which is a bit lower than 2025 estimates.  Why?  Mostly due to external trade pressures.

3. There are rising corporate insolvencies going on....increasing by roughly 8-percent in late 2025, and still trending into 2026.

4. There is a noticeable subdued consumer confidence brewing. German consumer sentiment is in a decline....concerns over inflation, job security, and tax burdens, leading to higher savings rates and restrained spending are noted by the public.

5. Finally,  I read through a piece from the Ifo Business Climate Index...the sector is reflecting pessimism about the first half of 2026....with companies citing uncertainty and weak expectations.

To be honest, I would question if Germany has ever emerged out of the Covid-damage era.

Whats The Whole Burgergeld (Welfare) Landscape In Germany?

Using numbers from mid-2025....5,522,252 recipients in Germany get welfare payments....with around 2,885,869 German citizens receiving Bürgergeld.

The remainder (roughly half of the 5.5-M)?  Non-German....most of which Ukrainian in nature. 

17 Feb 2026: Germany: 12 Stories

1. German nat'l police said that the current going price to get an Iranian to Germany via the human trafficking groups....is around 15,000 Euro.

2.  Focus had a piece discussing the emergency 'stash' you need to have.....to survive a 14-day period of 'outage' here in Germany.  

3.   This Hamburg Persian-restaurant attack from last week (I essayed already).....the cops have finally laid out the whole story with the dead guy.

He was the owner of a fairly popular restaurant...financially doing well. In his 'clan'...he was the senior member of the family.  Some guy (we are left guessing the ethnic status)...had approached the restaurant-owner for permission to marry within the clan (appropriate for Persians).  He'd already said 'NO'....refusing to bless the marriage.  The young guy returned, with a knife.....killing the older guy.

Cops still searching for the young guy.

4.  CDU-CSU-SPD coalition in discussions to find more tax revenue.  Discussion?  Raising VAT from 19-percent....to 21-percent. Personally, it won't shock me if the VAT escalates by 2035 to 25-percent.

5.  Some  discussions starting up.....retirement program has funding gaps.  To resolve this....gov't talking about raising retirement age to 70. You can line up a hundred Germans who are age 50, and 90-percent will tell you that this idea won't work. 

6.  Natural gas reserves?  From yesterday, I read the reserves have hit 24-percent  left. 

Supposed to be a Bundestag Q-and-A today....this question will come up.  Some worries about what happens at 20-percent. 

Journalists noted that a major delivery of LNG was supposed to occur this week....but required a ice-breaker to get the tanker into the port. The ice-breaker apparently had maintenance issues, and the delivery is stalled.  

Temps?  Well...for remainder of Feb (for central Germany).....mostly 5 to 10 C (day-time temp) is predicted.

 7.  After the big Bahn (railway) security meeting of last Friday....one change is  approved....fewer ticket audits on trains. If you don't confront the dangerous folks....nothing bad will happen.  Reaction by Germans....fairly critical of the idea.

8. Netherlands State Secretary that was supposed to be “responsible” for the unrealized gains tax business....apparently is stepping  down.  She had made up her resume/CV....she only finished middle school. Nothing beyond that.

9.  Someone on German social media wrote up a commentary to describe the CDU-SPD relationship....if they were a business-operation:

If SPD and CDU politicians were running a company:

- Everything free for new customers.

- Existing customers pay triple the price.

- Procurement pays double what is actually demanded.

- Only employees without any specialist knowledge are hired.

- Profits are invested to make processes as inefficient as possible.

10.  CDU and SPD moving toward banning under-age-14 social media participation.  From age 14 to 16....you'd only get participation if parents gave 'permission'.

To make this work....the digital wallet that the EU is developing would fall into  play.  Most experts suggest 2027 is the delivery-point for this 'wallet'.

By the wording...age verification would be mandated for everyone....meaning everyone would be forced to have a 'wallet'.

I pondered upon this.  If you were a tourist family visiting Germany for a week....you'd have to participate in the 'wallet' gimmick. Not just as a kid...but as a adult  as well.  I don't see this selling 'well'.

But why limit this to  only social media....the public library should also limit books based on age as well. You could  also do the age business at grocery stores...limiting high-sugar items to kids, or even limit them at fast-food restaurants.

I see lots of ways to regulate life even more.

11. I noted a German talking over his old Mercedes 'limo' and it's reserve tank capacity....with the warning 'note' it'd display, when hitting reserve-status...having 210 km still left in the tank.

For a brief year....I owned a 1969 Mercedes 'tank' (it felt like a tank), and it had a 78 liter tank.

12.  ZDF (public TV, Channel 2) has a problem.  They did a news piece over the weekend....critical of Trump/ICE operations.  The US clip used?  AI-created.

They had words to fill narrative....with the clip to draw dramatics....but it was faked-up.  Fair amount of public criticism.

Local Green Party Meeting In Berlin Concludes

 Local folks gathered up, and they assembled the 'promises' for the next election cycle....for the city election.  The five things I gathered out of this effort?

“Clear leftward shift” at the Berlin Green Party conference. A few highlights:  

1. A city speed limit of 30 kph.  

2.  Absolutely no tunnel construction. 

3.  Mandate for no private jets at BER.  (To be honest, there's at least 4 alternate  runways within 40 km....so if you were this strict....not a big deal.  Lessen the profitability of BER, and help out Finow or Schönhagen)

4.  Find some way of acquiring public housing....Implementing expropriation.  

5.  Invent some way of mandating landlords meet a social quota (left for some 'Einstein' to create).

Polling?  They tend to be in 4th place....around 16-percent.  The CDU appears likely to win....but with a marginal 22-percent.  City fairly split up among five parties.

This Dutch Unrealized Tax 'Game' And Things Likely Go

  The Dutch House of Representatives approved the "Actual Return in Box 3 Act" (Wet werkelijk rendement box 3), a major reform that will apparently tax unrealized gains on assets like stocks, gold, silver, bonds, and crypto at a 36-percent rate starting in January 2028. 

So I'll make four predictions.

First....the upper one-third of society...who invests into various things....will have a long talk with their tax-clerk....between now and mid-2026. They will have a precise number in their mind  of the increase. 

The middle-third of society....who might marginally invests, will also have a brief talk.  Their 'pain' will be existing but minor in detail  (figure a thousand Euro more on taxes).

Second, probably around a half-a-million folks will reach a state of mind that staying in the Netherlands (either in retirement, or working) is not possible. So the bulk of 2026 is to be used in surveying an exit.  Some might find Dubai pleasant.  Some might find work in Germany, Austria, or Czech....to be the solution.  That crazy Trump guy might even put a ad into some Amsterdam paper....suggesting US employment for highly qualified folks.

Third, most of 2027 will be a exit path.  Properties will go up for sale.  Some companies will start to worry....they can't fill positions.  Some companies will even survey the idea of moving totally out....to avoid this chaos.

Fourth....finally....mid-2027....the Dutch gov't admits that they are deep into a hole, without a solution.

Five Things I Tend To Believe Over The Freedom Of Speech Chatter (In The EU)

 1. Yeah, there have to be limits....so all I want is a thousand sheets of plain paper, and on 500 sheets....write down what I can speak of,  and on the remaining 500 sheets....write down what I can't speak of. 

Note, it would be helpful if the can't-talk-about pages didn't go past 500.

2.  I think it would be essentially helpful if moderator-controller....was ONLY one single person.   If you appoint twenty-four folks....things will quickly fall apart.

3. To be honest, as you step into this era....most folks will discover muting speech of all types....would be the best answer.  Don't listen....don't fret....don't disbelieve.....just mute and be happy.

4. At some point in the discussion over freedom of speech chatter in Europe....it will become painfully obvious that a 11-year old kid seems to be brighter and more perceptive than a 40-year-old politician or journalist.  At that point, you will survey the room for an exit-door.

5. If you don't like where this is going....simply leave.  It's not like they are discussing limits over leaving/exiting (yet).

Four Observations

1.  My wife (German in nature) went out this past week....to buy a new bottle of honey.  So this AM....I'm out of my honey, and reach into the 'stock' to get this new bottle.   

Well....they went to  some new 'tech'....having a button on the side that says 'push' (in English, but it's a German company).  I waste about 30 seconds pushing and attempting to open the top.  Total failure.

I end up approaching the wife, and she pulls out a knife....cracking the push-button and cutting it off....saying in blunt English...'there'. I'm a bit astonished....asking what the hell was the push-button for, and she responded 'for security'.  

I'm just wondering....do we really need push-buttons for honey, or anything else?

2.  There was a talk between Chancellor Merz and Governor Newsom in Munich.  Seemed awful friendly....like they knew each other.  

3.  Best quote of the week, from the Munich Security Conference: Belgian PM Bart De Wever: “Europe must never become an industrial museum.”

Somewhere around 1990 to 2000....the museum was opened for business. The museum seems to get bigger each year.

4.  My state public TV network....HR....has started up something called  "One Hour of Conversation."

Basically, you sign up to participate.....rules?  Well...no prior knowledge, no pressure, no judgment.  You have to be respectful interaction and expect good conversation at the end.

Basically a tool to train you how to converse.  

Trying to introduce this into the US?  Well....you'd have to have tables with like-minded people.    Maybe in Germany....fifty-percent of people could still gather and train themselves to converse in a friendly way.  But I'm suspicious here....you probably won't mix a table with 20-year-olds with 60-year-olds.

15 Feb 2026: Germany: 8 Things

 1.  In analyzing the rest of the Munich Security Conference....I came to the Marco Rubio speech. He keyed on three things: deindustrialization, energy suicide, and welfare and mass immigration.  At the conclusion....he got a standing ovation. 

I sat and pondered over this.  If you cornered the majority of German voters....they would hype on all three, and how Germany was 'lost' in some woods....with the three problems preventing a happy-ending fairy tale.

Since the 1990s, deindustrialization has been going on.  Regulating things to such a degree....that it just makes sense to manufacture outside of Germany.  Cost of energy?  Way above neighboring countries. The current welfare program....straining the budget in dozens of ways.  Reckless immigration? Most of the increase in crime....leads back to the design and failures of immigration.

2.  Just odd....from the Munich Security Conference....a number  of people uttered 'rules based order', but in the way used....was the same meaning as 'new world order'.

Weird....so many using the phrase.

My general question.....who made the rules?

3. Some list came out.....the top three most dangerous German train stations (crime, assaults, robbery, etc). Berlin, Leipzig and Dortmund.  Leipzig was listed for 2025 with 859 actual violent crimes.

Yeah, Frankfurt made the list (number 8,with 520 violent crimes).

My general advice....if walking through any  of the metro-stations in Germany....walk in a direct path and get to where you need to be. Don't linger in a spot acting like a target.  Even in Frankfurt....at any given time between 6 AM and 6  PM....there's probably 20 druggies gazing over the pickings.

On police presence?  In the Frankfurt station (including the subway/tram areas)....I'd take a guess that three  patrols (2-cops) are always walking around. Even in Wiesbaden....you tend to see one patrol always walking.

4.  Around 250k folks showed up in Munch yesterday for a protest against the current Iran gov't.   I read through demographics data....over 300,000 Iranians in Germany today.

5.  Swiss public radio/TV news now has a rule....crime committed and the police have the suspect....it's ok to note his nationality/ethnic situation.  

6.  I sat and watched a interview off N-TV (commercial German news).  Guest...PR expert Jannis Johannmeier.  

Topic?  "You can't save democracy with facts."

Jest....if you get into a emotionally charged debate....you might as well dump facts. What you should go to?  Something called "good propaganda."

Facts apparently don't generate positive thoughts or enthusiasm.

(Don't ask me what good propaganda is all about.)

7.  German customs folks....on their daily inspections/raids....encounter salary fraud in one out of four occasions.

8.  Just curious.....CDU Party having a big conference in Stuttgart.   Merz has declared a rule....NO booze sales until the daily meeting has concluded.  This done for two reasons. First, he wants party attendees to remain in the big hall where action is going on....not standing in the outer hallway with a beer or wine. Second....I  guess the CDU folks might consume a 2nd or 3rd beer in the afternoon, and act 'funny'.

Coffee, bubble-water, fruit juice and sodas....still ok.

AM TV Viewing

 This AM....I spent about 45 minutes attempting to view the Munich Security Conference 'talk' with Governor Newsom, and Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez from yesterday. Five observations.

1.  If you haven't figured it out....the 2028 President/VP candidates are Newsom/AOC.  On their original career path?  Well....one was into catering, and the other was a bartender.

2.  The moderators were both....keyed to ask the right questions. It reminded me of a 5th grade teacher who needed the class to perform correctly.

3.   Both Newsom and AOC got into the 'word-salad-jungle'....saying 200 word responses (8-minute talks)....where there might have been 20 seconds of value. Trump does the same thing....giving a 2-minute response, and you get about 30 seconds of value.   

4.  I'm not saying the Munich conference is a waste of time....but it's designed to meet-and-greet....build up connections....and party-in-the-after-hours with other 'players'....in swanky upscale rooms.

5. Finally, where VP Harris really screwed up and took a downward path for the campaign....was 'word-salad' commentary....where she could talk for 20 minutes and say nothing of value. Where both Newsom and AOC are heading? Same path.  

Who is probably grinning at this point?  Putin.  He probably sees both of them out of his league.  

This German Military 'Fantasy'?

 About a year into the Russian-Ukraine war.....you got the sense that the German view of defense had finally awaken, and they knew they were 'behind'. They lacked the hardware, the technology, the missile-defense, the bunkers to protect the general public, and the man-power.

So the coalition gov't (SPD-Green-FDP) at the time....went to review funding. In the period after Covid....they weren't in great shape. The next gov't (CDU-CSU-SPD) found a magic number and borrowed against future tax income.  Their number works....ONLY if the economy takes off (it has yet to show that).

Their perception of Russia as the 'threat'?  It's a 50-50 situation.....some folks see Russia as zero-threat now....stuck in a 20-year rebuilding process....handcuffed to a 3rd-world banking 'mess'....negative population situation (actually on decline), and can only achieve a rebuild situation if Germany continues to buy natural gas/oil from them.  Others feel Russia will be a serious threat....the minute that the Ukraine-war ends.

Polls suggest that a minimum of 50-percent of German youth have no interest in the draft/conscription or defending the nation. You have to wonder why, but it's not likely to change.

Realization that the US is likely to lessen it's projection in Europe?   Discussed almost daily.

Reality if you have to rely upon new immigrants for the defense of Germany?  This gets brought up occasionally.

How things will look in ten years?  Unknown.  

Netherlands, The Lifestyle, The Cost

 I've made around eight trips over the years into the Netherlands.  Sometimes for a weekend....sometimes for a full-week.  So, some observations:

First, you don't go for the food (it's marginal and nothing to brag about).

Second, to sit in a Dutch beer-garden...mid-summer....drinking a decent beer....is a four-star experience.

Third, no matter where you go....the general feeling is that engineers have designed the look, feel, streets, railway system, and highways.

Fourth, you just rarely find beggars on the street.  Now....if you stand in Amsterdam....yeah....fair number of doped-up folks.

Fifth, it's a odd feeling.....all this massive infrastructure....will eventually require replacement, and I don't think they ever calculated this day in coming.

Finally, you sense that they want to overly impress visitors....'you-could-be-like-us'. But then you start to think....what'd these folks pay for the 'look'?

14 Feb 2026: Germany: 4 Stories

1.  This week....the new capital gains law in the Netherlands came into focus. It will come into effect 1 January 2028.

The change?  It shifts from taxing assumed (fictive) returns on assets to taxing actual realized income, realized capital gains, and in many cases, unrealized capital gains (appreciation in value even if not sold).

So if you had gold coins,  Bitcoin or  stock....but didn't  sell  it in the past year....now the unrealized capital gain falls into play. They give each person some 'credit', but if you had a fair  amount of 'something'....you would be paying more taxes.

I went to social media to note Dutch reaction.....mostly folks asking questions. My best guess...the bottom third of Dutch folks won't have any issues at all. Somewhere around the middle-class....they probably will notice 1,000 to 2,000 more in yearly taxes.  Those in the top third?   They've got brewing problems.

No one said much yet on 'escaping/exiting' the Netherlands.  They have three years to think about the problem,  and the corrective action.

Population currently?  18.3-million.  If I were to guess the exit-crowd....come January 2028?  Probably in the 200,000 to 400,000 range.   The unusual back-story?  These were people in higher incomes, and naturally paid more in taxes (accepting of that reality).   

The politicians grasping of this reality?  I think a lot live in some  'bubble', and come the middle of 2028....will ask...where did the people go?

2.   Dortmund: Serious phone argument on the city tram.   46-year-old man confronted another man for talking loudly on the phone. Reaction?  Rage....then  stabbed his counterpart in the neck. Police are searching for the attacker. 

3.  Safe deposit boxes have been broken into again at a bank branch, in Stuhr near Bremen.

4.   Chancellor gave a speech yesterday....hyping that in a few years...Germany will have the most capable army in  Europe.

Reality?  Recruitment is crappy...most German youth have no interest in participating, and if they go to the conscription/draft....it's likely to bring down the gov't  in the end.

The German Health Insurance Lawsuit?

 A couple  of bundled-togethered German health insurance lawsuits center on statutory funds (GKV) and the federal gov't is in the middle of a mess with  insufficient funding for Citizen’s Benefit recipients.

Yearly amount in play?  Ten billion Euro roughly.

So to explain this in a simple fashion....regular Germans have x-amount  taken out of their paychecks....to cover the 'benefit'.  

But if you are a Burgergeld person (welfare class)....then the gov't hands over 100 Euro per person....per month....to cover their bill. The 100 Euro number?  It was a selected number with no real significance.....going back two decades ago.

So the folks  with the lawsuit say....every time that healthcare needed more money....the working-class  got pushed into paying more.  It's not fair....is the end-result.

What happens if the court agrees?  Some math expert steps up and say the welfare-folks (with the gov't playing along)....has to pay more, while the working-class  healthcare will drop like a rock (I would imagine 25-percent).

But while this happens.....the political parties will probably come to agree....long-term asylum folks (the non-Germans) have to proceed to get a job (to pay their fair share), and that German long-term unemployed....probably have to get busy.....working.

Making Sense Out Of The Hungarian Election

 There's to be a 12 April election for the national parliament....Viktor Orbán with the Fidesz–KDNP Party was set to lose (2nd place).  If you watch Germany's ZDF or ARD network news....they are the 'bad' guys.  

Projected winner?  Péter Magyar of the TISZA Party (the 'good' guys).  

Polling up until last week....gave TISZA the 'nod' with around 52-percent of voter support, with Orban's group around 37-percent, and two minor parties carrying remainder.

So....done?  Well....no.

Oddly, Péter Magyar now says that in 2024, his then-girlfriend (after his divorce from the wife) set up a honey trap to secretly record them having sex.  He says Orbán’s camp plans to publish to ruin and blackmail him.

The funny side of this?  Magyar, more or less....indicates that this 'trap' was a party where it was known to be 'drugs' (left out the type) available.  He doesn't say cannabis (it'd be easy to say he was stupid)....so you are left to wonder what  it was.

So the effect on the election?  Drug-party....sex in the mix....blackmail?

I would imagine the under-30 crowd don't care and will still go to Magyar (they might even see the sex stuff in a positive light).  The over-40 crowd....probably half of them are asking questions, and probably see Orban as a 'safe' vote.  In eight weeks....it's probably a 44-40 situation...with Orban barely winning.

The cherry on this whole mess?  Magyar's ex-wife has a fair amount of criticism over his behavior from the marriage.  

Various dynamics at play, and as much as the EU want Orban gone....the change-dynamic is hooked up with a guy with issues.