This Starlink-EU Chatter

 Starlink....a Elon-'monster'....has basically carved out one-party only business.  So in the last week or two....the EU stood up and said 'no-more'.  They intend to fast-track Project Bromo, a joint venture by Airbus, Thales, and Leonardo....compete against Starlink.

Problems?  I gazed at the agenda.

There's to be arguments within the EU over where the build will occur, and jobs are divided up. 

Then there's a funding problem....where Airbus will probably ask for direct EU funding for several years.

Will European folks be given a decent rate for the Bromo-product (cheaper than Starlink)?  Some folks laugh over that idea.

Will some mandate force you into using Bromo....instead of Starlink?  So far....no one suggests that.

After pondering this a while....I asked myself....how long before a Chinese version of Starlink is parked over Europe, and cheap rates to Bromo or Starlink?

16 Oct 2026: Germany: 8 Stories

 1.  AfD Party....locally in Berlin-City.....have set up a party headquarters in a structure on Köllnischer Park 1.  So the neighbors?  Well....a German language school for non-Germans, a sex-fetish 'club', and a college alternate site.

Yeah....odd mix of folks renting in the same structure area.

2.  Some belief that the SPD Party meeting in early January....will reset the leadership of the party....with Klingbeil unlikely to still be party-'boss' (he will still be Finance Minister).  

Party needs a 'reboot'....lingering around 13-to-14 percent in national polls. If you go back 30-to-40 years...the SPD were the party of the working-class union-guy/gal.  You can't really ID them as such today.

3.  With the new increase on the smokes tax....you can figure a pack of 20....at twelve Euro in cost ($13, single pack).  So if you were a pack a day smoker....you'd need 360 Euro ($400) a month for the habit.  At some point, a massive drop in smokers will occur, and the tax folks will be in shock...missing funds.

I worked with a German in 1978....who smoked through 1.5 packs a day.  Doubt if he could finance his habit today. 

4.  Within VW....the ID E-car group....is preparing a recall for the vehicle....concerning the batteries.  What apparently exists...under certain rare conditions....the battery can catch on fire.

5.  WELT piece: Some school in Berlin had to go to court....ordering students not to engage in prayer....mostly because it was a 'risk' to school peace/safety.  Judge apparently agrees....it sets some people (juveniles) off.  

6.  This France-chatter over  softening EU car CO₂ emission rules?

For the Germans....it's basically relaxation of CO2 targets for cars.  For the French....it's a win because Germany now has to accept a carefully written definition of “Made in Europe.”

7.  Federal Minister of Construction (SPD).....announcing some serious control/limits on expropriation (where you use legal methods to seize property/buildings and later pay for 'acquisition').  

8.  Term 'd-you' refers to the new digital 'wallet' that the German gov't has approved....where you'd have your national ID card....digitally placed.

UK Poll

 I read through a Telegraph piece this AM.....some group did a poll....asking folks (men/women) if they would enlist to defend the UK....if a invasion occurred.  36-percent said 'YES'....rest said no (figure two-thirds of the public).

For an hour, I've been pondering this.

I've come to two thoughts.

First, why bother financing a military?  I'd shut down the Army, Navy and Air Force.  It's waste of spending.

Second, if I were President Trump....after the Greenland chatter success....I'd announce that the US (giving them no timetable) will be invading the UK. I'd lay out the plan....no more driving on the left-side of the road....the King can stay....Harry and Meghan can stay but need a real job....dissolve the BBC....and make Bond a gin guy.

Half of the folks willing to sign-up and defend the isle....will be pro-Trump anyway.  Remainder will just accept the fact.  

My question....how did this character of the Kingdom...dissolve away?

German Train Stations, Drinking, and Booze

 When I arrived in West Germany in 1978....one of the top hundred things that fascinated me....were train stations (bahnhofs).

First time upon stepping into the Frankfurt station....I probably spent an hour just standing there and admiring the landscape.

Over the course of the next two years....I traveled around the country and probably admired at least thirty different train stations.  I got to a point of rating them....with Frankfurt usually set at the top....closely followed by Munich and Hamburg. 

The Frankfurt station had probably three or four bars at the time.  If you stood around, yeah....there were probably forty-odd guys usually in some state of drunkenness.  They'd find their way to a platform, and catch the train out.  

Around 1990....as the wall came down....drugs increased around almost all German train stations.  If you walk out the eastern end of Hamburg....for a block....there's a four-star drug zone.  Frankfurt?  If you walk out the eastern side....for about a block....there's a junkie/dealer-zone.  Locals know of the issue....complaining to the city and police....with occasional raids to show 'something' got done.

I'd generally say from 2010 on....most of the metro stations have a boozing problem.   If you confronted the Bahn executive management (country-level)...they'd tell you the safety/security around the big stations is now a top-three problem.  So going to a dry-station concept....is the only option left.

Will it change much?  I'm of the mind that shops around the Bahnhofs....will get increased business...selling beer/booze to the same crowd, and the station security folks will be mostly monitoring consumption within the station....either kicking the boozers out, or detaining them for a dozen hours (to dry out). 

The next target?  I'd suggest the druggies being selected by the end of 2027.

'Path' of Things

I noticed yesterday....out of a suburb area of Paris....Saint-Denis....they had a 'ban' started up....signed by the mayor of the district (Bally Bagayoko).

Booze sales....banned.

Yeah, it is a Muslim-majority suburb.

Concerned?  If you were a resident of the area....you'd drive an extra five minutes into a non-controlled area, and buy booze.

Big deal?  I doubt it.....but people will sit there and converse about how things evolved.

15 Oct 2026: Germany: 6 Stories

 1. This Nord Stream II bomb case in Hamburg.

Basically, the prosecution has evidence to show the Ukrainian guy reserved the boat, paid for the boat, picked-up the boat, went to location at the site, and there's bomb-residue on the vessel (collected by the police).  

What the defense attorney said yesterday....the Ukrainian guy was under orders to blow up the LNG pipe...by the Ukrainian government.  

Judges in this case.....in a strange mess.  They'd probably like to agree....war-is-war.  But if you say this was OK....wouldn't that open the door for more Ukrainian attacks on German soil?  

Lengthy case?  It's hard to see how it'd be any longer than four weeks.

My guess....some guilty situation will occur....with the guy spending three to five years in a prison.  

2.  Odd jet-fuel problem in Frankfurt....there is a shortage being reported.  

3.  Business report via Focus....China is improving it's production of heat-pumps.  Just guessing...in five years....majority of sales would lean toward Chinese-made pumps...instead of EU-produced.

4.  Talks in Berlin-City over a Linke Party-led coalition....have restarted (with Greens/SPD).

5.  Alcohol-consumption/sales at train stations....now banned.  What the path was?  I'd say over the past twenty years....stations became a magnet to 'hang-out', and guys/gals got 'stupid'.  

There was always a drinking problem around the train stations (when I arrived in 1978)...but it mostly involved transit-passengers.  You had two hours to waste at some leg of a trip....you sat and had two or three beers.  

There's simply more homeless folks using the stations, and the added burden of drug sales/use around the stations.  

6.  If you view Berlin-City bickering/discussions.....the local Greens and the national Greens....aren't really reading off the same 'script'.  

7.  Sugar-tax profits in Germany?  Once implemented, mid-2027....the federal government estimates it will collect 690 million Euro next year, with projected revenues of 925 million Euro for 2028 and between €875 and €890 million for later years.  

If you do the math, for a 1-liter bottle of Coke, it will be around 32 cents extra on cost.  Sugar-free sodas?  No added burden.

I'll just say...if you asked a hundred German adults....no one much thinks consumption will lessen. Most will suggest that this is the beginning of a long-path....to tax all 'evil' things.  Chewing gum, chocolate, and chips....likely to be next.

Odd French Poll

 IFOP did a poll with French Islamic folks....asking what happens if next year's election occurs, and Le Pen wins.

46-percent of those polled....said they'd 'leave'.  

First, how many people would fit into this 'threat'?  I researched it....5.5-to-6 million (presently).  

Second....a realistic reaction?  I'm not so sure that bulk of the 46-percent are serious.  

But lets carry this to May 2027....Le Pen wins, and then what?  Maybe realistically....around 1-million to 1.5-million start to think 'exit'....where exactly would they go?  The only French-speaking country for a exit-plan...would be Belgium.  Some might consider Spain or Germany.  

Reaction in Belgium, Spain or Germany?  Probably negative, but since the folks have EU residency....they are free to move anywhere within the EU.

Curiosity?  Well...over half of the Islamic folks polled....said they weren't likely to move/exit, and obviously weren't too worried about Le Pen or changes coming.  That might be worth thinking about.  

What Was The Bavarian 'Circle'?

 The Bavarian Circle (in German: Bayerischer Reichskreis) was one of the Imperial Circles (Reichskreise) of the Holy Roman Empire....lasting from around 1500 to 1806)....figure 306 years.

Starting around 1500.....it was a organization under Emperor Maximilian I, the Diet of Augsburg.  There were six of these circles in the beginning.

Purpose?  Defensive matters....collecting of taxes, carrying out public safety/peace, regulating commerce.

14 Oct 2026: Germany: 5 Stories

 1.  McDonalds-Germany says in about two weeks....they will end normal sales of the McRib.  Yeah, a shock.  

Around five times a year (on-average), I stop and 'taste' a McRib.  I agree....it's greasy, fatty and high-sodium/sugar.  I usually get a nutrition lecture by my German wife if she detects any sign of eating a McRib.  I will miss it.

On the menu, for 37 years.

2.  Berlin-City talks over a coalition gov't led by the Linke Party and junior-partners SPD and Greens....have paused.  

Some speculation that a coalition build under the Linke Party is not possible. 

3.  BER (Berlin's Airport) believes there's a downward trend coming shortly, as RyanAir halts operations at the airport.  Increased taxes/fees drove this issue.

4.  Trial opens in Hamburg....against the guy that is suspected to be head of the Nord Stream II blow-up deal.  Ukrainian guy, if you were wondering.

5.  German sugar tax will start in July 2027.....agreement reached (2 stages of installment). 

Q-and-A: Migration Into Germany

 1.  What is the form for migration?

Niederlassungserlaubnis (basically a settlement permit  or a permanent residence permit).

2.  Always 4 pages?

Well.....it differs state-by-state...most are 4 pages. 

3.  Always in paper-format?

NO.....you might run into a office where it has to be digital/on-line only.

4.  This leads to residence card later?

Yes, the Aufenthaltstitel / eAT).

5.  Can you survive without a permit?  

I'll just say it'd be awful hard, and complicated.  If I were speculating....yeah, there might be 100,000 individuals in Germany....longer than 3 months, and intending to survive without a permit.

6.  Can you be refused a permit?

I can think of generally eight reasons: security threat deemed, zero language talent, lack of pension contributions (60 months before retirement), no skill or retirement funds, missing paperwork/facts on your ID, data in the form left blank (intentionally).

7.  Most positive story I've heard?

I was in a German class with a late 20's African guy who'd run a grocery store (since age 14).  Throughout the six months he was in the language class....he was working at a local German grocery....month by month....moving up.  The store 'boss' gave him a 'will-hire' note at some point....saying it was a job-offer to be a shift-manager, if he completed the integration class.

Diesel Chatter

 Yesterday....Chancellor Merz gave a talk:  he basically gave a thumbs-down on the  US-Russia diesel deal.  Quotes: "Such a decision is out of the question for Germany and Europe."  "Russia will only negotiate seriously under pressure, and that is why we are maintaining our sanctions."

I asked AI....what EU countries ALREADY buy Russian diesel....Italy, Cyprus, France, Spain, Romania, Greece, Ireland and Netherlands.

Did Merz know this?  I doubt it.

Is it possible that Germany already buys diesel off Italy or France....but it's a middle-man and actually Russia producing it?  Well....yeah, it's a remarkable possibility. 

After a while....it turns into a comedy.

Why German Politicians Have 'Heartburn' Over Social Media

 Once upon a time....German society existed off a somewhat controlled newspaper, and radio-TV market controlled by public TV managers (controlled by appointed state-monitors).  

You had mostly a left-of-center, right-of-center, and far-left political situation. Since the 1920s....with the Nazi-era added....this was the norm for public news.

If you reviewed newspapers and magazines from 1945 on....they had liberties to publish, and mostly stayed within a controlled thought process.

Commercial TV came in the late 1980s, but they tended to stick with sex and lust stuff....not so much politics.

All of this was the norm until you start to get around 2005-to-2015 period....where the internet and social media arrived.  We were finally at a point where 'control' was not a handy-tool.

The arrival of Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, and Twitter/X?  In the beginning, there weren't that many Germans getting into social media, and it was mostly a entertainment 'vehicle'.  

Twitter....all the way through the Covid-era...either via the EU, or via German controls....they could keep people from social commentary.  Then....things rapidly changed.

The real fear?  You could have forty-odd Germans in a single week....asking a simple question....which triggers half-a-million German voters to get angry....discontented over fake agendas.  A lot of the disgruntlement today in Germany...comes from people asking stupid questions, and the gov't unable to really resolve the argument or to find clarity.

The weakness factor for both the SPD Party and CDU-CSU Party?  Half of the problem is social media folks dumping over the lack of action or inability to solve problems. 

Maximum use of ARD/ZDF public TV....to create a message/brand, and get around social media 'hype'?  Well....yeah, that is part of the landscape as well.

The path ahead?  I'd say that the EU has to find some way of controlling social media (mostly X), and prevent open public discussions....to lessen the tension and prevent public rage.  In some odd way...to create counter-rage.  In some way, you need to invent fake Nazi-outrage or fake Putin-outrage....to accomplish the goal.

The Three April 2027 German State Elections

 So there are three state elections in a one-month period of 2027...which matter.

First, Schleswig-Holstein.  If you view polls....done in July (nothing since then)...CDU leads with 27-percent....SPD at 15-percent....Greens at 17-percent, and AfD at 18-percent.  Linke at 7-percent, with BSW and FDP both at 6-percent.

Oddly, nothing new since early July.  If you asked me over changes....CDU probably no longer sits at 27-percent....probably closer to 21-percent.  I'd also speculate that the SPD is closer to 12-percent...with this a race by the Greens and AfD mostly.

Second, Saarland.  Any polls in 2026?  NO....oddly, zero polling.  Toward the end of 2025....one poll put the CDU at 25-percent and the SPD Party at 27-percent.  AfD was at 23-percent.

If you asked me over changes?  I'd say both the CDU and SPD were closer to 23-to-24 percent, and AfD likely leads with 26-percent (my speculation).  

Third, Nordrhein-Westfalen (NRW).  Sep 2026 poll shows the CDU at 29-percent (down three from six months ago).  Greens at 18-percent, and SPD at 14-percent.  AfD at 22-percent.

Except for NRW....there's nothing much for the CDU to brag about.  For the SPD Party...if you were a liberal voter (lefty)....you are more likely to vote Green, than SPD.  

I can see a reason or two to collapse the federal gov't presently, but saying the SPD 'gains' some positive numbers?  No....it's mostly a Green Party gain.

Merz carrying any weight or 'hope' for April?  No....that's a given in the situation.  

13 Oct 2026: Germany: 5 Sories

 1.  Apparently, over the weekend....French hackers remotely defrosted refrigerators at several hundred French supermarkets.  Lot of lost food.....spoiled crap.

2.  AfD Party in Baden-Wuerttemberg....tasked the state to provide data...on child marriages.  Apparently, there are a fair number reported (not a German thing).

Reading over the piece....there's at least eight child marriages that were legally annulled (past 7 years).   Then there's 350-odd additional cases....going back to 2012)....which HAVE NOT been annulled.

One case (example).....11-year old Iraqi girl....hooked-up to a 17-year old Iraqi boy.  

If I read the piece correctly...there's two cases where underage Germans were involved.

I'll just say it...not something that Germans support.  After age 18...no one can say a word.

3.  Interesting discussion off ARD's 'Hard But Fair' public forum show....talking over the coalition mess in the Bundestag.  Because of the numbers for AfD....the CDU-CSU and SPD folks are forced into a partnership which can't really function long-term.  So the guest spoke up to the idea of a minority government.  Germany had this in the late 1920s....marginally functional during that attempt.

4.  Gov't suggestion....tax on AI revenues.  If you make a profit....in whatever manner you cut costs....you'd have to pay a tax.

5.  Porsche lining up to lay off 8,000 employees, and dump half of all management positions.

If There Were A National German Election 'Now'?

 My humble thoughts.....very unlikely for remainder of 2026.  I'm likely to believe if you were forcing it....there's 3 state elections in mid-April....where the SPD probably will get more votes than the CDU. 

It might be a strategy to exist....gaming the system now....to get more state votes and show a 'trend'.

In this strategy....you collapse the gov't and gear a nat'l election in two months.  

Timing?  I would NOT do it (collapsing) any later than mid-December....forcing the election end of Feb.

Candidates?  I really can't think of any SPD person who'd hype it big-time.  If you asked best scenario....someone might drag the 'lame-horse-SPD-guy'  up around 17-to-18 percent max (hoping the Greens aren't do any better).

CDU?  It won't be Merz...more likely to Premier-President Wust/Soder.  I don't see either getting the CDU-CSU to any point better than 22-percent.

Win by AfD, but unable to form a coalition?  Yeah....that's most likely scenario.

Any big advantages for snap-election now?  Other than the 3 state elections or the France election in April/May....there's no real reason to hype it.

Final word?  Having a snap-election now.....probably leads to a 2028 snap-election again.  Fairly weak gov't....no matter who is in charge.

Nat'l Polling?

 INSA did a different poll over the past week, They split the CDU and CSU up....two collections:

CDU: polls 13.5-percent (down roughly .9-percent) and CSU at 4-percent (down .6-percent).

AfD?  Polling at 30.5-percent

SPD: 14.5-percent, Greens at 14.5-percent.  Both unchanged.

Linke: up .5-percent, to 10.5-percent

If you asked me over indicators....in 90 days (early Jan 2027)....I'd say the AfD will be close to 33-percent, and the CDU-CSU situation will be at 15.5-percent.  

Both the CDU and SPD top level need some type of 'face-change'....new 'brand'.  

My view on the top five political topics?  Job losses, cost of energy, public-safety, migration reform/deportation results, and urbanization-housing 'fears'.  If you listed the top twenty cities of Germany....most all have a affordable housing 'mess' which needs to be resolved.  Same cities....fear of crime and mafia views.  

SPD Turmoil?

This AM....German Federal Minister of the Unemployed and Social Affairs....Barbel Bas....gave 'notice' (leaving).

She is the co-'boss' of the SPD Party.

Reasons?  Not much given.

What happens next?  The SPD has to have a election in early January to find the new co-'boss', and I suspect some name will be given for the new Minister....at the same time.

Likeable?  Within the SPD Party, yes.  If you asked for the accomplishments of the unemployed sector....there's nothing much to brag about.

My thoughts....there are several elections (state) in 2027, and maybe the party is eager to find a 'change' to the polling.

12 Oct 2026: Germany: 6 Stories

 1.  Saxony-Anhalt and BMW story continues on.  I noted over the weekend....someone connected the dots and laid out the reality....BMW already leases/sells limos to dictators around the world.  

Seems like BMW created a even bigger mess to clean up.  

2.  Odd evening with ARD's public forum show....Premier-President of Bavaria....Soder....appeared, and talked over the idea that if you were a CDU-member and in dissent....you ought to leave the party.  

To be honest....it's probably in the 10-to-20 percent range of disgruntled CDU Party members presently.

3.  Polish police are holding a guy....who'd had a plan to attack the Polish PM.  Still no clear agenda or ID.

4.  This oncoming sugar tax...isn't exactly supported by 'all' CDU politicians.  At least nine CDU-CSU Bundestag members are taking a negative position on the tax.

5.  WELT chatter.....French Fry prices expected to jump in coming months in Germany....some crop issues.

6.  1.4-million folks have received continued unemployment money....for five-plus years...of which, 37-percent are NON-Germans.  (N-TV this AM)

BREXIT Twist?

 This AM....I read through a piece....the UK gov't is going to lay out the idea.....that Russia got into 'meddling' for the 2016 BREXIT referendum.  Formal complaint?  Yeah.

Next?  Unknown.  I would imagine the PM and crew will say the referendum was not valid and they intend to rejoin the EU within weeks.  The EU?  They might be standing there in shock...never expecting this strategy.

Bigger shock?  Putin himself probably will admit the idea came up, and he voiced the idea that keeping the UK within the EU....was the primary goal....to make the EU ultra-weak.

Brits believing the Labour Party 'story'?  I would imagine that 40-percent of folks are ultra-skeptical of the Russian-BREXIT story.

Next?  Putin might admit that he did meddle to get the Labour Party win, and that it's not a valid government presently.

Twist....upon twist....upon twist.

Assassination Plan?

In the last hour.....Polish police report....having received information on a possible assassination attempt on Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk and deputy prime minister Kamysz.

No actual attempt...just a plan in progress (the way I read the hype).

Who behind it?  Unknown.

The two guys...slightly left-of-center?  Strangely...true.

Putin figures into it?  I wouldn't speculate on that (yet).