A few days ago, I noted the newly signed EU-South America trade agreement (taking 20 years to complete). It came up today....that France hasn't exactly signed off, and they are now insisting on various words to be added....to ensure the happiness of their farmers.
Does the agreement require all 28 member states to sign off? Yes. It's possible that the agreement will stall, and falter.....if some agricultural changes aren't made.
German farmers negative as well? Yes.
In fact, you can go across almost all of the EU and find that in virtually every single country.....farmers are hyped up and negative about the trade agreement.
Wednesday, July 3, 2019
Sea Watch 3 Saga Ending?
The Italian judge wrapped up the episode with the rescue vessel Sea Watch 3, and it's captain. The captain is released, and the matter mostly ended. The judge's chief comment? The ordered denial to the vessel by the Italian Interior Minister.....was illegal. He could not ban the vessel from docking and releasing rescued migrants.
The end? I kinda doubt it.
The present Italian government doesn't want Lampedusa or for that matter....Italy....to be the dumping ground for migrants rescued in the Med.
I suspect eventually....a legal case will be made that these 'rescues' don't qualify as a rescue. If you load a hundred folks on a rubber raft, and drag it forty miles into the sea, then release the rope....is it a true rescue that happens next? And if they paid to be taken out in a rubber raft and set adrift in the sea....is that a true rescue?
I will agree that the German news media will pump up the release of the ship and it's captain as super-positive....but what exactly has all of this achieved? The Interior Minister of Italy will sit down and devise the next confrontation. Eventually, someone will suggest that you bring out a Italian government vessel....tie a rope onto the drifting raft, and drag the hundred folks back down to Libya....for the Libyan Coast Guard to rescue.
If there is ever a connection proven between the smuggling crowd and the rescue crowd? Well, it would be near impossible to show a real connection, but the public support would rapidly disappear if they appear to be hand-in-hand....running some kind of fake rescue business.
So stand by...the saga will continue.
The end? I kinda doubt it.
The present Italian government doesn't want Lampedusa or for that matter....Italy....to be the dumping ground for migrants rescued in the Med.
I suspect eventually....a legal case will be made that these 'rescues' don't qualify as a rescue. If you load a hundred folks on a rubber raft, and drag it forty miles into the sea, then release the rope....is it a true rescue that happens next? And if they paid to be taken out in a rubber raft and set adrift in the sea....is that a true rescue?
I will agree that the German news media will pump up the release of the ship and it's captain as super-positive....but what exactly has all of this achieved? The Interior Minister of Italy will sit down and devise the next confrontation. Eventually, someone will suggest that you bring out a Italian government vessel....tie a rope onto the drifting raft, and drag the hundred folks back down to Libya....for the Libyan Coast Guard to rescue.
If there is ever a connection proven between the smuggling crowd and the rescue crowd? Well, it would be near impossible to show a real connection, but the public support would rapidly disappear if they appear to be hand-in-hand....running some kind of fake rescue business.
So stand by...the saga will continue.
Next EU President?
Defense Minister Ursula von der Leyen will step up and take the nomination/vote, and accept it. How did this all occur? Mostly after three names were sent up from the CDU/CSU.....they were all voted down. So Merkel came into the situation and laid down the fourth name....von der Leyen.
Von der Leyen, if you go and read up on her....has a two page resume (something hard to find these days). She's considered bright and clever. Originally, she spent a brief year studying archaeology....finding it not that interesting, and got into economics....earning a degree. A couple of years later, she earned a medical degree. She spent some time as a assistant-physician. In the early 90s, her husband got a job at Sanford University in the US, and she spent four years there.
Family background? Her dad was the former PM of Lower Saxony. Her uncle was an orchestra conductor. She has five brothers.....who all seem successful and driven.
On the niceness scale (at least in public)....she's a '10'. She's not one that would go and make a comment to slam anyone in public. If she does utter criticism....it's woven into a suggestion for improvement. I suspect part of this reason why she was accepted is this character.
The job? She's set for five years.
Von der Leyen, if you go and read up on her....has a two page resume (something hard to find these days). She's considered bright and clever. Originally, she spent a brief year studying archaeology....finding it not that interesting, and got into economics....earning a degree. A couple of years later, she earned a medical degree. She spent some time as a assistant-physician. In the early 90s, her husband got a job at Sanford University in the US, and she spent four years there.
Family background? Her dad was the former PM of Lower Saxony. Her uncle was an orchestra conductor. She has five brothers.....who all seem successful and driven.
On the niceness scale (at least in public)....she's a '10'. She's not one that would go and make a comment to slam anyone in public. If she does utter criticism....it's woven into a suggestion for improvement. I suspect part of this reason why she was accepted is this character.
The job? She's set for five years.
Tuesday, July 2, 2019
This 'Messy' EU Presidential Thing
Weeks ago, during the EU election....things were hyped over the top candidates proposed by the Germans....to replace Jean Claude Junker as the EU 'head'. His term ends in the fall.
Folks in the Merkel circle were fairly confident that they had votes lined up and that the Bavarian guy....Weber....would get the 'nod'.
Well...no.
So if you watch TV in Germany, things have been rather chaotic, and it's now possible that it won't be a German (meaning some French guy will get the 'nod').
But this afternoon, a new possibility arose. Merkel has pulled out a non-EU person....her Military Minister (von der Leyen). It's probably the last card left in the deck.
Acceptable? It might be, but this would open up a can of worms because no one in the CDU really wants this job of Minister over the German military. Two crashes in the past two week of aircraft or helicopters, and some investigations going on about scheduled maintenance.
Folks in the Merkel circle were fairly confident that they had votes lined up and that the Bavarian guy....Weber....would get the 'nod'.
Well...no.
So if you watch TV in Germany, things have been rather chaotic, and it's now possible that it won't be a German (meaning some French guy will get the 'nod').
But this afternoon, a new possibility arose. Merkel has pulled out a non-EU person....her Military Minister (von der Leyen). It's probably the last card left in the deck.
Acceptable? It might be, but this would open up a can of worms because no one in the CDU really wants this job of Minister over the German military. Two crashes in the past two week of aircraft or helicopters, and some investigations going on about scheduled maintenance.
Ali B Update
I've essayed a fair bit since spring of 2018....over the Wiesbaden murder of a Mainz teenager, by an Iraqi migrant (Ali B is the name used by the press). I won't go back over the details, but there is an update.
The prosecution is ending its case, and the court will come out with the verdict by the end of this week. What the prosecution wants? Guilty verdict....with prevention detention. What that means? Well....it means that if he did come up for release in 15 to 20 years, there would be a process required and an a evaluation. They would assess his threat to society, and possibly just hold him on. So they aren't saying a permanent stay in prison....but they intend to hold him as long as he is considered a threat.
My guess is that the court will go that way, and Ali B will be in a fairly secure prison, with no chance of ever leaving.
The unique features to this case? This is a young guy who came with his family from Iraq to Germany, when the big wave of migrants were walking into Germany. The odd thing is that as they arrived and settled into a migrant center, there was supposed to be paperwork signed and they were supposed to apply for asylum...within a couple of weeks. Months went by....roughly nine months, before they applied for anything. Five or six months after they were forced into applying....they were told 'no'.....they failed the application. No one has said why.....which is rather odd.
So they were on a extension and hoping for a court reversal of this. Ali B during this time period? It does seem, based on news stories....that he was selling drugs on the side. His younger brothers? Well....they were supposed to be in school, but were mostly skipping classes.
If you were looking for a five-star script for a movie, this would certainly work.
The prosecution is ending its case, and the court will come out with the verdict by the end of this week. What the prosecution wants? Guilty verdict....with prevention detention. What that means? Well....it means that if he did come up for release in 15 to 20 years, there would be a process required and an a evaluation. They would assess his threat to society, and possibly just hold him on. So they aren't saying a permanent stay in prison....but they intend to hold him as long as he is considered a threat.
My guess is that the court will go that way, and Ali B will be in a fairly secure prison, with no chance of ever leaving.
The unique features to this case? This is a young guy who came with his family from Iraq to Germany, when the big wave of migrants were walking into Germany. The odd thing is that as they arrived and settled into a migrant center, there was supposed to be paperwork signed and they were supposed to apply for asylum...within a couple of weeks. Months went by....roughly nine months, before they applied for anything. Five or six months after they were forced into applying....they were told 'no'.....they failed the application. No one has said why.....which is rather odd.
So they were on a extension and hoping for a court reversal of this. Ali B during this time period? It does seem, based on news stories....that he was selling drugs on the side. His younger brothers? Well....they were supposed to be in school, but were mostly skipping classes.
If you were looking for a five-star script for a movie, this would certainly work.
E-Scooter Story
Since the German approval for E-Scooters has occurred....it's been almost a daily thing for problems to be reported, and the authorities getting all 'huffed-up' over implications going beyond what they imagined.
What the German government wanted was simple usage.....only on streets, and with a limited amount of speed.
So it came up today in commercial news reporting....about 20 km's west of Dusseldorf....a E-Scooter was noted on the autobahn.
The basic story? Some 28-year old German guy had been at the railway station in Erkelenz, and apparently the train was cancelled (yeah, another negative about the Bahn). This guy has a E-Scooter though.
So he looks at the smartphone map, and realizes that he can be at his destination within a short period of time, with the help of the E-Scooter....but has to transit the A46 autobahn. So he proceeds on the road.
Well.....the E-Scooter is officially limited to 20 kph. Yes, there are E-Scooters that can go 60 to 80 kph, but those aren't legal in Germany. And it's written in strong language....E-Scooters can't use the autobahn.
There's a general law over vehicles on the autobahn....you have to be able to go at least 60 kph. Anything below that....gets you a ticket.
Well, two Germans (not cops) see this guy, and proceed to pull in front and the rear of the guy, and lead him to the next exit, and call the cops. Cops arrive, and ticket the guy. He'll have to appear in court, and it's likely that a hefty fine (probably over 200 Euro) will occur.
The first of hundreds of court cases? I suspect so.
The Germans simply weren't going to allow wild and massive use of E-Scooters to occur. The problem is....when you go to cities like Barcelona and Prag....you see a lot of things which the Germans simply won't go along with.
What the German government wanted was simple usage.....only on streets, and with a limited amount of speed.
So it came up today in commercial news reporting....about 20 km's west of Dusseldorf....a E-Scooter was noted on the autobahn.
The basic story? Some 28-year old German guy had been at the railway station in Erkelenz, and apparently the train was cancelled (yeah, another negative about the Bahn). This guy has a E-Scooter though.
So he looks at the smartphone map, and realizes that he can be at his destination within a short period of time, with the help of the E-Scooter....but has to transit the A46 autobahn. So he proceeds on the road.
Well.....the E-Scooter is officially limited to 20 kph. Yes, there are E-Scooters that can go 60 to 80 kph, but those aren't legal in Germany. And it's written in strong language....E-Scooters can't use the autobahn.
There's a general law over vehicles on the autobahn....you have to be able to go at least 60 kph. Anything below that....gets you a ticket.
Well, two Germans (not cops) see this guy, and proceed to pull in front and the rear of the guy, and lead him to the next exit, and call the cops. Cops arrive, and ticket the guy. He'll have to appear in court, and it's likely that a hefty fine (probably over 200 Euro) will occur.
The first of hundreds of court cases? I suspect so.
The Germans simply weren't going to allow wild and massive use of E-Scooters to occur. The problem is....when you go to cities like Barcelona and Prag....you see a lot of things which the Germans simply won't go along with.
Sea Watch 3 Saga Continues
With the arrest of the German ship captain of the rescue vessel Sea Watch 3 in Italy (down in Lampedusa).....this has become a top tier news item. I will emphasize that probably a fairly high number of Germans simply don't care and mute the news 'saga' when it comes on.
Yes, Chancellor Merkel did return and tried to talk with the Italian Prime Minister over the issue....urging him to just release the ship captain (German citizen). He responded that there is a separation of power between him and the judicial side. As long as the regional judge over the Lampedusa area is investigating the charges by the prosecution, the ship captain will remain under house arrest.
How serious are the charges? What's generally said by the news media is that she (the ship captain) has been accused of resisting an Italian military ship and it's executive officer. There's also talk of some type of aiding/abetting illegal immigration. There is also some talk of entering Italian territorial water without permission. If the judge sent this on for a real court session and if found guilty on all charges? There's some people who suggest this could add up to ten years of prison. My humble belief is that the Italians want some charge to stick which sends a tough message, and the female captain is going to license her license to pilot for some period of time (maybe six months) and maybe get a year in prison with six months of probation.
If the Italians were to go real tough? The EU would step in and try to resolve this or find some legal EU method to dismiss the harsh terms.
The story-line? Well, in Germany, it's all pro-asylum and leading to donations to the foundation running the rescue vessels.
But the longer this story resides and gets time via public forums....there are questions asked.
There is some virtual small 'box' existing in this area between Libya and Lampedusa....probably 5 x 5 miles, and if you ventured to accomplish a rescue a mile to the left of the circle....by sea law, you'd have to bring the refugees to Tunisia (that's the nearest port area). If you went a mile to the right of the circle, you'd have to bring the refugees to Malta (they have even a bigger issue with asylum-seekers). If you went a mile south of the circle, you'd be obligated by the law of the seas to bring them back to Libya. No one talks much about this 5 x 5 mile 'zone' but if you think about it.....it's designed in some ways to be a pick-up point.
Why not transit on up to Corsica (France) or Palma (Spain) to drop them off? Well, you'd be adding two days of transit onto each drop-off, and you'd eventually encourage right-wing reaction in Spain or France to be triggered.
Could this house-arrest for the ship captain linger for weeks? Yes. No one mentions this, but you could see it lasting a full month.
This being a big political negative for the Italian government? It could charge up the pro-asylum people in Italy, and trigger public debate. However, a fairly large group of Italians don't see asylum as something they want as a national crisis. Add in the unemployment rate, and public sentiment....it doesn't make much sense to bring migrants into Italy....they'd just walk out of the holding centers, and venture north toward Germany.
Yes, Chancellor Merkel did return and tried to talk with the Italian Prime Minister over the issue....urging him to just release the ship captain (German citizen). He responded that there is a separation of power between him and the judicial side. As long as the regional judge over the Lampedusa area is investigating the charges by the prosecution, the ship captain will remain under house arrest.
How serious are the charges? What's generally said by the news media is that she (the ship captain) has been accused of resisting an Italian military ship and it's executive officer. There's also talk of some type of aiding/abetting illegal immigration. There is also some talk of entering Italian territorial water without permission. If the judge sent this on for a real court session and if found guilty on all charges? There's some people who suggest this could add up to ten years of prison. My humble belief is that the Italians want some charge to stick which sends a tough message, and the female captain is going to license her license to pilot for some period of time (maybe six months) and maybe get a year in prison with six months of probation.
If the Italians were to go real tough? The EU would step in and try to resolve this or find some legal EU method to dismiss the harsh terms.
The story-line? Well, in Germany, it's all pro-asylum and leading to donations to the foundation running the rescue vessels.
But the longer this story resides and gets time via public forums....there are questions asked.
There is some virtual small 'box' existing in this area between Libya and Lampedusa....probably 5 x 5 miles, and if you ventured to accomplish a rescue a mile to the left of the circle....by sea law, you'd have to bring the refugees to Tunisia (that's the nearest port area). If you went a mile to the right of the circle, you'd have to bring the refugees to Malta (they have even a bigger issue with asylum-seekers). If you went a mile south of the circle, you'd be obligated by the law of the seas to bring them back to Libya. No one talks much about this 5 x 5 mile 'zone' but if you think about it.....it's designed in some ways to be a pick-up point.
Why not transit on up to Corsica (France) or Palma (Spain) to drop them off? Well, you'd be adding two days of transit onto each drop-off, and you'd eventually encourage right-wing reaction in Spain or France to be triggered.
Could this house-arrest for the ship captain linger for weeks? Yes. No one mentions this, but you could see it lasting a full month.
This being a big political negative for the Italian government? It could charge up the pro-asylum people in Italy, and trigger public debate. However, a fairly large group of Italians don't see asylum as something they want as a national crisis. Add in the unemployment rate, and public sentiment....it doesn't make much sense to bring migrants into Italy....they'd just walk out of the holding centers, and venture north toward Germany.
Monday, July 1, 2019
The German ID Card
Everyone in Germany....over the age of 16....has to have one. Cost? Students: 22.80 Euro. Everyone else: 28.80 Euro.
Necessity? Basically, any government agency....any policeman....any attempt to use a public service where identity is important....would have to produce the document. It's generally regarded as one that you need to carry on your person when you leave the house. Absolutely on your person? No. If the police stop you and want to ID you....and you say that you left it at home, then if this gets to a must-have situation....they could drive you back to the house and ask you to retrieve it.
Use in the EU? That's the curious thing. If you travel outside of Germany....the ID card serves as a passport card (at least with the 28 member unit of the EU).
When did the obligation start? Shortly before WW II, the Nazis made it into a mandatory thing.
Required for voting purposes? Yes. If you go down to the polling station, they will ask for the ID card. You have to produce it.
Necessity? Basically, any government agency....any policeman....any attempt to use a public service where identity is important....would have to produce the document. It's generally regarded as one that you need to carry on your person when you leave the house. Absolutely on your person? No. If the police stop you and want to ID you....and you say that you left it at home, then if this gets to a must-have situation....they could drive you back to the house and ask you to retrieve it.
Use in the EU? That's the curious thing. If you travel outside of Germany....the ID card serves as a passport card (at least with the 28 member unit of the EU).
When did the obligation start? Shortly before WW II, the Nazis made it into a mandatory thing.
Required for voting purposes? Yes. If you go down to the polling station, they will ask for the ID card. You have to produce it.
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