Looking Over Hamburg

 The past two days....I've spent time looking over Hamburg's vote (On October 12, 2025, Hamburg held a citizen-initiated referendums: the "Hamburger Zukunftsentscheid" (Hamburg Future Decision) on accelerating climate neutrality).  It passed. 

Most people agree....it's sort of binding...meaning if the city council tries to delay or hinder it....the environmentalists can drag them into court.

Basic concept of the deal?  Advance Hamburg's climate neutrality target from 2045 (aligning with Germany's national goal) to 2040. This includes legal binding measures like phasing out gas/oil heating in buildings, expanding electric transport, a city-wide 30 km/h speed limit, and ending industrial gas use. Somewhere in the text....it says it emphasizes "socially just" implementation to protect low-income households.

I've been to Hamburg four times over a 40-year period, and consider it one of the more interesting German cities to visit.

So....is there substantial risks now involved?

To some degree....if you talk about the politics, the economy, and logistics....yeah.

Currently, it's the number three port in Europe.....bringing in €20 billion annual industrial output.

 Problem now approach?  Replacing all gas/oil heating (billions in landlord costs; 8,000 km natural gas network decommissioning).  Then there's electrified transport overhaul and industrial decarbonization. Potential job losses in energy-intensive industries?  Yes.

Getting to upfront investments?  It appears to be a problem now.

I'm going to make five predictions here:

1.  Property taxes have to escalate.  Figure 25-percent up.

2.  Rent from 2030 to 2035....figure 300-plus Euro up.

3.  Whole inner-city will likely have a massive monthly/weekly/daily fee attached....to lessen traffic.

4.  Plans to renovate/upgrade the harbor? That probably will end, and the port will  drop to number five to number 8 in terms of traffic movement, by 2035. Figure job losses...maybe 3,000 jobs minimum.

5. At least 5,000 residents to start discussing leaving the city...maybe moving 20 to 50 km away.

Recovery for Merz's agenda?  It might continue for a year, but as court battles brew to force changes upon the city council....a stall will begin on improvement of the economy.

One added note......I expect the Fridays For The Future crowd to believe that federal funding from Berlin will come to pay for over half of the project.  It won't come, and financially....Hamburg will get itself deep into debt.   

BILD Piece: German Barber Shops As Black Market Establishments?

 I sat and read through the piece....BILD builds a decent (not absolute) case that the German barber shops are using 'black' labor (undocumented folks). Also, they hint....nail salons work the same  way.

Here's the thing....if you walk around Mainz or Wiesbaden....you kinda notice this  massive growth in both establishments  since 1990.

I used to walk  weekly in Mainz by a particular nail shop....run by Chinese individuals....with ONLY Chinese employees. It seemed like every 60 to 90 days....the crews switched out.

Barber shops in Wiesbaden? You see the same trend....fresh new crew every three months or so.

But you'd need another 10,000 audit-agents to really check things like this out.

What Is The Purpose Of the German Job-Center?

 The German JobCenter is a public institution (funded by the gov't) primarily aimed at supporting unemployed individuals or those at risk of unemployment in finding work and securing their livelihood. 

It's worded into the 'code' of the German Social Code (Sozialgesetzbuch II) and is jointly managed by the Federal Employment Agency (Bundesagentur für Arbeit) and local towns. 

Key purposes are:

1.  Providing Financial Support: The JobCenter administers basic income support (often referred to as "Hartz IV" or "Bürgergeld" since its reform in 2023) for jobseekers who are unable to support themselves financially. This includes covering living expenses, housing, and heating costs.

2.  Job Placement and Career Counseling: It helps individuals find employment by offering job placement services, career advice, and access to job listings. 

3. Promoting Training and Qualification: They provide access to training programs, further education, and qualification measures to improve employability, especially for those with limited skills or outdated qualifications.

4.  Social Integration: Beyond financial and job support, it aims to promote social inclusion by helping individuals reintegrate into the labor market and society, addressing barriers such as lack of education, language skills, or personal challenges.

5.  Support for Employers: JobCenters also assist employers by providing recruitment services, subsidies, or support for hiring long-term unemployed individuals.

Love-hate relationship with the public?  Yes.

JobCenters having security or 'bouncers'?  Well....over the years....they reached a point of worrying about security.

A fair number of Germans....with certifications....going to private temp-agencies instead?  That's a true statement. If you've reached a point where you think the job will dissolve in three months....going to a temp-agency might be a better way to find your next job.  

Commentary Over A Article

 Yesterday....I was referred off to the Gatestone Institute site, to a piece written by Drieu Godefridi....entitled: "Towards a Left-Wing Reich in Germany?".  You can read the entire piece here.

There's five discussion items....which I'll discuss my observations over.

 1. The Classification of the AfD by an Administrative Agency.

Earlier this year....the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution (BfV, Germany's domestic intelligence service) sat down and identified the political party Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) as a "right-wing extremist" organization. By doing so....a set number of things play into play....mostly watching them more closely.

For those who don't know the AfD.....they were created out of thin air by 3 lawyers....in 2013....mostly as a fringe group to drag Germany back to the D-Mark (the lawyers figured out that roughly 10-percent of all Germans hated the Euro....felt screwed over by the transition.  Oddly enough....they were correct.  Election wins showed they could pull 5-to-10 percent in elections.

Then as the migration business started up in 2014....by 2015....the party was taken over by members....kicking the 3 lawyers out  of what they created.

The focus since 2015?  Mostly anti-immigration, opposing the path set  by the SPD, and the CDU-CSU.   Currently?  They control  around 25-percent of the public vote, and make life difficult for creating a coalition (no party will form with them).

 As for BfV having the right to monitor them?  Look....there's a couple  of indicators to suggest some element leads back to Russia.  I'm not saying they are pro-Russia....just that Russian agenda falls into play, and BfV feels compelled to monitor them. It would worry BfV if there was a  Chinese angle to them, as well.

2.  Repression of Free Speech: The Criminalization of Dissent

This free speech chatter wasn't a big deal until social media came along. Article 5 existed since the late 40s....to give Germans the right of free speech.  However, there's all this 1930s BS....that the Germans have to  contend with....which comes out on hate-speech, and incitement.

Laying out free-chatter? Germany is like a science lab....where you have five Elon-like scientists always in a developmental stage...never noticing 2 additional scientists in the room. The two oddballs are a bit  'wild' and 'crazy'....pushing the developmental stage to the extreme. It's like bringing up the SPD idea....allowing 16-year olds the right to vote.

 So they are always worried over this 1930s era returning. 

Isn't incitement always brewing? Well...that's another odd element. People think of incitement as a physical violence thing, but it can go down different paths. Chancellor  Merkel in 2014....led a path of incitement for a majority of Germans  to accept refugees and migrants. People saw everything in a positive way of incitement....until 31 December 2015 (the Koln event).  

Incitement can be achieved in various ways, with some positive, and some negative.  But that fear of 1930s incitement is what dwells on the minds of most politicians.

3.The Quarantined Area: Institutionalized Directed Democracy

In simple terms....all  other parties in the Bundestag are agreed....no participation with AfD. When they were at the 10-percent point...it wasn't a big deal. Now at 26-percent....it  makes government changes more difficult.

Let me inject this in a odd way....from 1949 to the early 80s....there were basically two big parties (SPD, CDU) with a combined situation of 80-percent.  Two or three other parties existed with 20-percent. Things were simple. Today, the SPD and CDU  together....won't match more than 45-percent combined.

Coalition-building is extremely difficult and bickering constantly occurs. By saying AfD is quarantined....the real size of the Bundestag is 74-percent (not 100-percent).

4.  The Ban Talk

Well...yeah....certain elements  want  AfD banned from politics.  The question is....if you dissolve them....what happens to the 26-percent of voters?   Do they see  the ban action similar to what the Nazis did in the 1930s?  

Some folks see the ban chatter as being unhelpful, and possibly making matters worse.  If AfD were to reach 35-percent?  I'm likely to think banning would be a high priority, and page one news for 6 to 12 months. 

5.  Finally, The Shadow of the Reichstag Fire

I'm one to suggest of the five big events since 1800....to change the path of the country....this event is one of those events.

The fire comes about 5 weeks after Hitler becomes Chancellor.....early 1933.

This 24-year-old Dutch communist drifter.....Marinus van der Lubbe arrested? When the police found the guy....he was near-nude...in some daze....acting irrationally, and based on the description....I'd say drugged-up (this was an era where a lot people from around the world....came to Berlin for sex or drugs).

The communist angle?  For a brief period (Nov 1918 to Apr 1919), there was a little civil war going on in Bavaria, with communists coming close to achieving success.  A lot of Germans in the 1930s....still saw the bigger threat in life...not so  much the Nazis, but the communists.

As for the fire?  It's never been settled.  The Dutch guy ended with blame...was executed for it.  This opening up a door for Hitler to go hardline?  There's no doubt that this incident triggered a lot of crap over a short period of time.

Someone trying believe that some incident like this today could occur? If you said Russian drones being used to fire-bomb some German refinery....yeah, a 1933-type event could be recreated.

The commentary was worth reading, but all of this is mixed into a recession period....with Germans desperate to see a exit-door and some recovery process starting up. 

What Was/Is The Order Of The Nine Angles?

 Well....in the late 1960s....founded in Shropshire, UK (about an hour's drive NW of Birmingham)...this group met (I assume in a local pub) and they wanted to design a 'crew' or club....promoted a seven-fold sinister design/path.

I should state....a fair amount of design....centered on violence and infiltration of other subcultures/groups (to include religious, political, governmental, etc).

I should also state....this was a occult group (from day one on)....blending Satanism, neo-Nazism, and extreme esoteric practices.

You would come into the club....moving up....through personal transformation,  "roles" or tasks....show yourself as violence-capable. 

Far-right?  Yeah.

Promoting a social Darwinist worldview?  Yes....mostly by advocating for the disruption of modern society ("the System") to usher in a new era of strength and chaos.

The fact that they have no membership list?  Yeah....it's doubtful that the UK authorities really have a clear picture of the group, their plans, and how deep into society they would go to trigger chaos.

A lot of the Labor-Party 'mess' in the UK...leading back to the group?  I started pondering this in August.  Almost every single week....there's another 'path' created by the Labor-Party....which seems ill-advised and designed to spark national chaos.  

The police? They also seem as though guided in some way....to deliver chaos as much as possible.  The same can be said for judges there.

It is odd to revisit this 1960s start-up, and their basic design....then to review the UK that exists today in 2025.  ONA would want exactly what exists today....chaos.

Court Case Chatter

For a week or two, I've followed this story in Magdeburg. 

For the trial-case against the attacker on the Christmas market in Magdeburg (2024), a temporary courtroom/'barn' has been erected in Magdeburg. 2,000 square meters in size, with space for 700 people and fairly high security standards. 

I looked at the picture....huge barn-like structure (aluminum).  Looked to me to be big enough for 1.5 basketball courts.

So why erecting this? Well...in Magdeburg.....there is widespread interest in this guy and the attack.  Some locals claim from the six dead and 323 wounded....virtually everyone in town knows someone who died and got hurt.

Added to this.....the prosecutor says there will be 300 possible co-plaintiffs.

Huge cost? The story goes.....around 1.5-to-2-million Euro spent.

Would I have gone this way?  No....I would have hired a IT group.....filmed the whole thing, and given out some  password account to residents of the town....so they could watch it at home...probably for 150k Euro. 

Conviction confidence?  Near 100-percent, but with all the witnesses involved....this is probably a 90-day court case.  

The confusing part of this story?  Up until the Christmas Market attack.....this Saudi was regarded as a 'good-Muslim'.  So all these positive words he spoke for five or six years?  All BS....which makes this a pretty wild story.  

27 August 2025: Germany: 10 Things

 1.  Dresden....another knife assault.  On Wednesday evening, a Syrian (16) and a Tunisian (24) got into a confrontation....each pulling out knives against each other....this time in the city center.  Both were wounded enough....to get ambulance care.

2. The German Bundeswehr Reservists Association.....has invited Green Party member Habeck (former vice-Chancellor) to come and join.  He's leaving/resigning out of the Bundestag.  I doubt if he'd take up the idea.

3.  Some suggestion of Switzerland joining the EU.  This would resolve the tariff problem with the US....however...vast majority of Swiss don't want the deal.

4.  Five-story apartment building in Berlin  deemed unstable....residents  have been tossed out for the moment.  It has been secured with steel cables for the moment.

5. Mainz drug gang (5 members) taken down by court....sentences handed out.

6.  State of NRW has written a draft law....as you are arrested/detained....your nationality would  be listed (something not currently done now).  Some people are saying it would help the AfD....if non-Germans were picked up for most crimes.

7. France in serious economic trouble....wants to put up a national austerity program.  PM does  NOT have the votes to carry this.   National unions now talking of a big nation-wide strike.

8.  The new German draft-law stipulates that starting in 2026, all young men and women will receive a questionnaire on their 18th birthday.  The way they describe it....it's supposed to lay out questions....where they might engage with you on your interest. Men have to complete the questionnaire.  Women?  Voluntary situation. After that...if suitable, you get a medical examination. In the first 'round', there is no compulsory military service.  If that fails....then compulsory comes up.

Older folks?  The Bundeswehr will also contact them and later and send them informational materials. 

Higher pay in the mix?  Yeah....conscripts will be paid as temporary soldiers, thus earning more than €2,000 net per month.

Do I believe this will work?  I'm pretty skeptical of the recruitment angle.

9.  WELT article: Three-quarters of all German hospitals are in the 'red'...meaning they have debt.

10. Bodo Ramelow (a Linke Party member, VP in the Bundestag), wants a new German national anthem. 

If I were selecting?  “Wind of Change”  by the Scorpions (1990).

I should add....Ramelow also wants a national vote on the flag (keep/replace). He says a fair number of Germans don't identify with it (presently).

4 August 2025: Germany: Six Things

 1.  Malte Arnsperger wrote up a political piece for Focus yesterday, which has been on my mind.  So the object?  There's chatter in a couple of German cities (major urban sites) of  bringing Palestinian Gaza 'kids' to Germany....in some kind manner to 'save'.  

Note, they haven't said adults...just kids.

The CDU-CSU-SPD folks....they haven't walked into this discussion yet, and frankly....I think 90-percent of them would rather not engage upon this, and start giving happy feelings about where this would go.  If this got traction?  Well....those 'evil-AfD Party' folks would engage, and it'd probably pump up their ratings another percent or two.

Who would 'manage' such a thing?  Unknown.  Money for support?  Unknown. Accommodations?  Unknown.   Distribution forced down to each state?  Probably.  Mostly a lot of unknowns where this idea would lead to.

Worst case scenario?  Well....kids 14 and under?   Best estimate is around 750,000 total existing in the Strip population. I'm pretty sure no one will sign up for that kind of number, or even for 100,000.  I would offer an assumption of 10,000 in this mix.

As for heavy questions (with no answers)....I would imagine the AfD adding a minimum of two points onto their polling. 

2.  SPD Party chatter over the weekend.....they want new taxes for the 'super-wealthy' of Germany.  They didn't clearly state the 'line' but figure there's room to discuss this with the CDU-CSU.

3.  Ulf Poschardt wrote a piece for WELT....over the topic of public TV  reform in Germany....saying that the system cannot really be reformed, and leans mostly toward the Green Party and left.  A one-sided viewing?  That's the business model and the general path of things.

I hate to suggest this.....but already in the early 1960s....some folks felt this way, and that was the creation vehicle for ZDF to be created (Channel 2).  Once created (with state money)....lawsuits occurred, and the court said the way that the Constitution read....ONLY one network can exist in Germany (Channel 1, ARD), and then gave ZDF to ARD to manage.  

4.  Because of the warm/dry spell in the spring....bee operations  are on a massive up-swing....best year in Germany in 15 years, for honey.

5.  Business report via HR...here in my state of Hessen.....cool/wet spell for the past four weeks....have damaged outdoor cafe/pub and restaurant industry....major losses on income.

I was at a Asian restaurant on Friday....covered by umbrellas, with showers/wind.   It was brisk....but just warm enough to sit and eat dinner.

6.  First six months of 2025.....asylum applications at 70,000 here in Germany.   That's half of what existed in the first half of 2024.