Sun Is Getting Hotter Story

I sat and watched a PR-type campaign video.....done by the CDU's lead candidate in the state of election in Baden-Württemberg.

This was set up in some school.....which I immediately noted....the kids have no vote, unless they are 16.  

I'm assuming they asked for a older group...but the kids in this room were age 13/14 (my guess).

So....Manuel Hagel went into education-mode....to explain the greenhouse effect.

My German is less-than-average....but the next 60-odd seconds...Hagel gave some words to say the sun is getting hotter....because the Earth's atmosphere is becoming thinner.

Just by the look on their faces....the kids were either in a state of disbelief....or in some mid-morning 'trance' (too much Monster-energy 'fluid').

On the positive side?  Well....the kids are still  pumped up on  climate-change-Angst (fear).

Probably needs to be a German law....to prevent politicians from entering any school unless the kids are 16-or-older (enough to vote).

Footnote: I think the CDU guy just lost 5 points off the election....but I don't see the Greens on the gain-side. Very odd development.  

How The Sunday Election Will Go in Baden-Wurttemberg?

 State election.

CDU will win....around 27-percent. Greens easily in 2nd place....24-percent.

AfD near 20-percent.

SPD, 9-percent.  Linke and FDP near 6 each.

Observations

 1. Yesterday AM....Iraqi Kurds were organized and crossing the border into Iran....invasion-style. Based on reports....I'd say they were armed by the US Army and had clear strategies....hooking up with Iranian Kurds.   

2.  Odd thing I noticed via Bloomberg News yesterday....Sweden’s central bank advised folks....they should hold a week’s worth of cash at home.  Reason?  Well....you might need to buy food, essentials...in case of a war or other crisis.

Why drove this advice?  Unknown.

3.  Putin suggested he might cut off ALL natural gas deliveries to the EU....saying that he has other customers.   

4.  These big public viewing beer-parties during WM2026 (this summer)?  Well....in Hamburg....cancelled.  Security requirements make it too costly.  Going to be a lot of grumbling how things got this way.

5.  Two bomb threats yesterday....Bremen, and Augsburg....shut-down the two train-stations.   Nothing found.

6. 143,000 registered cases to go against deportation orders in Germany for 2025.  These were people who came  into Germany....asked for asylum, were evaluated, and then given the 'nein' paperwork.

You can add up the paperwork, and manpower....probably 40-man-hours for the gov't to defend their decision (minimum)....but this would tie up the German court system for years, and years.

The court system was never made to handle this sort of mess.

7.   Cash requirement?  If you have something to  buy/pay-for....costing  over 3,000 Euro, and you pay in cash? Then some ID is required. A bad example here....if you had a used car....pricing it at 2,999 Euro would avoid the paperwork.  Pricing it at 3,050....requires the paperwork.

8. When you examine how things went 'south' so fast in Iran....this one meeting about 3 weeks ago....where the Trump folks were trying to deal with Iran's nuclear program....the topic of how much enriched uranium came up.  

We are talking weapons-grade uranium.

The response was x-amount....enough for 11 nuke-bombs.

Why this guy was honest? That's  really the big question. If he'd say half-a-nuke or less....things might have gone in a friendly fashion

Was he boasting?  Was he just a new guy? Was he just a actor in the talks?  Unknown.

9.  All that 'bad-Spain' talk? Ended.  The PM came back yesterday, and said they re-considered....Rota and Moran are open for US operations.

To put things into prospective.  

Moran is by Seville,  and Rota is by Cadiz.....both were US bases.....paid and kept up to date....for events like this.

Sanchez, the PM of Spain?  I'd describe him as 50-percent Gov Newsom (Cal)....male-model type, but being one step above Newsom on IQ, and  mostly attached to only focus-groups that get the vote out.

10.  Gas prices this AM?  In my region.....1.88 Euro for E-10.

The Too Many Employees Chat

 After yesterday's piece on Stuttgart having an audit....finding that of the 17k city employees....a 1,000 are not necessary....my German wife got into this topic.

Her belief?  If you visited the top fifty German cities....they all have a 5-to-10 percentage 'overage'.  Her belief as well...if you did trim and let people go....this 100,000 group would have issues/problems in finding new work....permanently unemployed is the outcome (her thoughts).

I pondered this unique problem.

In most cases....my belief....for each six workers....you probably have a manager, and for each three managers....there's some division chief. 

In a shop of ten folks....there's probably three workers carrying the work-load....doing around 75-percent of the work.  The remaining seven are mostly to fill the gap and 'look' busy.

In my days in the Pfalz....someone brought up their German wife wanting to open a cafe, and needing a business license.  Various trips to the town 'rathaus' were failures....mostly because of the clerk in charges of licenses. Eventually....she gave up on this idea...in this one particular village....selecting an alternate site a couple  of kilometers away, and on the first trip to that new clerk....all papers were squared away.   

I'm not saying all city employees are 'problems'.....but the system over the past forty-odd years has corrupted itself.

So the curious question....would the SPD, Greens, CDU, AfD, and Linke folks....be willing to cut 100,000 city employees across Germany?  I would say......no.

Does The US Have A Limited AMMO/Rocket/Missile Number?

 There is this odd belief.....Iran will use cheap drones (maybe two-to-three hundred a day....to force the US to spend expensive  weapons to halt the drones.....to which around day ten....the US is assumed to be 'out'.

Who gave the Iranians this idea?  I'd guess the Chinese.

The problem.....the US really hasn't put the full 'blast' of assets there in the region (in terms of Naval or Air Force). 

The other issue....as days pass....the US gets smarter on where this bulk storage of drones are, and there's to be a moment where that one single 'tunnel' is targeted.

It's a hopeful strategy....but around day 30....there's to be a bad 'feeling' lingering among those still left alive.

Ten Observations

 1.  It's an interesting thing.....probably near 30,000 Germans in the affected zone....stuck....no planes flying in/out.

Based on regional chatter there....various gov'ts (Qater, Dubai)....stepping in to pay hotel bills of folks stuck.   

One travel agent back here in Germany....I noted on social media...said something to the effect that they had a client (or two)....there in Dubai, and wanting to 'leave'.  Seems that the airport isn't sure of much.....agent was asked if they could rig up 'something'.  Agent noted that they could get them on a bus....going 25-odd hours...to Jordan.  

2.  Iran 'burning' bridges?  Yeah....sentiment from the neighbors....there's no talking-phase at this point....the Mullahs have to exit. Not sure where they might go (Russia or China....won't accept them).  

3.  This 'war' to end in four weeks?  If you wrote down a list of the top 300 'leaders' of Iran from Feb....based on commentary, I'd say that 75-percent of them are 'gone'.

If you get into the next 500 'leaders, captains, bosses'....they probably have ten days to exit...before they end up on some hit-list.

By mid-April....the US/Israel agenda is done.

4.  Gas today?  I noted 1.89 Euro to 1.94 Euro, per liter of E10.

5. New poll in Germany, for national politics....CDU-CSU up around 27-percent.....AfD at 24-percent.   

Key problem....64-percent of voters want Merz replaced.  They don't say by who.....just that one year into the situation....not much has improved.

6.  Odd feature.....62 tons of Brazilian beef  was delivered into the EU.  Tests done....it featured a growth hormone....freaking out out some folks.

Just guessing....you probably aren't seriously affected but it's just a guess.

7.  Discussion started up on social media....youth....asking if they aren't 'mature' until age 16 for social media....all the way up to 15 years/364 days....they are to be treated as 'kids'.  

Term 'unfair' comes up.  They might have a point.

8.   Islamist terrorism remains by far.....the greatest focus of the German Federal Prosecutor's Office.  Right-wing/left-wing radical stuff.....only 4-percent.

9.  Stuttgart doing an audit.....admitting that maybe around 1,000 city employees....out of 17,000....may have to be 'cut'.

Seems like they are screwing up on budget matters....for several years.

10.  Insurance companies in Germany looking at upping rates on car insurance....for the over-80 crowd (180-percent up)....going to force some seniors to plan dumping their cars by a certain age.

Why Does Germany Have To Consider Entering The Iran War?

 Well....in four weeks....this 'war' likely ends (I presume a break-up and Persia comes to exist with 60-percent of the territory).

Upon a break-up....the US and the Middle East have first 'dibs' on support and contracts.....if you didn't help to bring down the Iran gov't....you will not be welcomed by the new Shah gov't.

Add to this....German-Iranians....are not pro-Iran.....they want the regime to fall.

Pretty simple situation to select sides.

2 March: Germany: 6 Things

 1. Bad case of flu.....now on day 7.  Haven't had this 'level' since early 1990s.  Was  even worse than 2021's Covid.  I've been flu-vax 'free' since 1999....never having more than a 24-hour bug.

2. TUI Cruises' "Mein Schiff 4" is currently located near the attacks on US bases in the port of Port Zayed in Abu Dhabi.  From what was described....some small rocket hit the ship....minor damage.  No one harmed. 2,500 folks on board.

3.  Islamic guy seriously injured several clubgoers in Bielefeld with two knives. Some suggestion that he has a ISIS history.

4. Public TV (ARD/ZDF) hyped-up.....30,000 Germans in the war-zone....gotta-be-rescued. Foreign Ministry....in  middle of the mess. 

Hate to say it....but they'd have to ask the 'evil-Trump' to rescue them out of harm's  way.

5.   My view of the war?

Look....fuel reserves/diesel-gas-jet fuel....enough for about 4 weeks.   After that....nothing is going to move within Iran.  The 'bosses' ran a marginalized economy for forty years....never reflecting upon reality.

They locked down the Straits....meaning nothing gets in or out....screws them as much as everyone else. 

My prediction? In 4 to 6 weeks....Iran breaks up.....probably into 3 new countries.

Persia gets the bulk (renamed)....Kurds get their chunk....SW chunk  goes to 2 or 3 groups.

Mullahs?  They are formerly retired....sent off.  

I'm not describing a perfect solution, but it ends all of the terrorism hype....crazy religious stuff, and the massive layer of incompetence.

6. Gas price shock coming? 

Presently.....German unleaded (E10)...runs around 1.74 Euro per liter.  I'd go and  suggest by Friday....it goes to 1.84, and by next week....1.94.

Same story for LNG.