The Computer

There's a good story over at the Local today...announcing that nineteen million Germans have never used the internet.

It doesn't really surprise me.

From the age group of Germans over forty....I really doubt if half of them have used a computer ever. I remember the episode two years ago downtown where they finally forced computers on the car tag 'mafia' in the county court house. They refused to cooperate and all of them (except the money clerk) were forced into other jobs at the courthouse. The dozen who worked in the office....were all in their early 50's and no talked much around the court house about how this mess came to be ended. I walked in one day....and it was all 20-year old folks....who quickly got me in and out in eight minutes (something that would have required the old team over 45 minutes).

When you go into a village and notice a travel office still in existence.....it's because most Germans refuse to use a computer in making reservations or to find the cheapest deal. They still count on that travel clerk to get them to Turkey for their summer vacation.

If you have a compliant about your garbage....well, folks typically call the office involved. They don't care to mess with an e-mail address.

So out of eighty million Germans.....nineteen million aren't going down this path....and it may be a number of years before you see a internet-prone group of Germans in existence.

My Son and Tax Revenue Thoughts

My son has issues with German taxes. Mind you...he's just an apprentice who makes barely 350 Euro a month after taxes.

His comment yesterday...was kinda true.

There was this point in the 1950 and up through the 1970s...where every town in Germany was building a water treatment plant. The funny thing was that they'd have a population of 5,000 and then build a plant for 15,000. It was intended for growth...but there were never statistics to prove this was right in the first place.

Then, these plants started to show up even in towns of 2,000 people.

At some point, in the 1990s...the government began to realize the amount of water treatment....was many times over the German population....probably enough to supply all of France free water if they asked for it.

In my local area....with a 4-mile radius from the town center....there were around five water treatment plants in the circle. It didn't make any sense.

At some point, they started a renovation deal and then told various communities to start shutting down their plants and hook up with a bigger town next door. There probably was hundreds of millions spent in the 1950s and 1960s on their grand scheme....mostly all wasted.

Another note by my son?

Our village has a local school for the 6-10 year old kids. For three decades...it functioned without a gym. A bus pulled up each afternoon and loaded up a group and took them to the town gym about a mile away.

I have no idea what they paid for the bus, but it was a simple pick-up-and deliver scheme. The town gym? Free. It was heated and maintained by the village....at no cost to the school.

Parents in town were unhappy about this arrangement, and eventually talked the school into buying property and spending around $250k on a gym building and property about 250 feet away from the school.

As my son points out...the school now pays for heat and cleaning for the tiny gym....just big enough for half-a-basketball court.

My son says they could have kept going with the village gym which sits there free...and just kept the bus deal going.

I'm kinda thinking he's right. There's issues over how the German government funds just about any project...and folks just need patience to eventually get their favorite project done.

My Son's Old School

My son attended the Haupt Schule over at Hochspeyer. It was.....a very crappy old school.....by any German standard.

Five years ago....the district announced this million Euro upgrade for the school. The first renovation since it was built in the 1960s. So around three years ago....they started this project. My son finished the school in June of last year and the final piece of the renovation was to be done this summer.

It's an interesting mess that has occurred.

Somewhere around 2008, the big dudes of the district decided this really nice school (after it's done).....ought to be used for the smart kids (those destined for university), and not the Haupt schule environment (the average kids).

This school already had a chemistry lab and a computer lab which was going to be 4-star in nature.

This change upset the locals who had been waiting ten years for this renovation. So lots of folks got angry.

Eventually, the big guys of the district came to agree that this was a really big argument that they were going to lose.

So they made this terrific decision....turn it into a early-grade school....Grun schule. This was to be for kids in the first grade to the fourth grade. The necessity for the chemistry lab and the computer lab? Zero. Don't worry....it's already built. So it's a total waste.

This was their revenge on this whole argument.

So around one third of the total money wasted on this renovation....went for a huge upgrade, which no kid will utilize in the future. Around $1.3 million dollars....and at least $300k was wasted on stuff you can't use in the early years.

My son points this out....because he's paying taxes now....and kinda upset over the stupidity of the local school district.

So it goes.

The Trouble with Tests

We know it won't go anywhere...but this past weekend....some German conservatives came out and suggested that immigration ought to have a tool in the process that tests intelligence of the applicants....and you don't base your decision strictly on humanitarian concerns.

This isn't coming from the high levels of the government....but the localized levels (Peter Trapp who speaks for domestic plicy within the Berlin chapter of the CDU made the comment).

The suggestion will appeal to one third of the country...especially those who think immigration is now a problem that needs national attention. The question will be how you develop this test and market it to the public. Frankly....I suspect that the Greens will stand against any intelligence tests because it's just "unfair" (without much explanation beyond that).

Then you have to wonder from a 100,000 immigrant group in Germany today....how many might fail? Maybe 10,000? Maybe 50,000? You just don't know. The older the immigrant...the more likely chance of them failing (my own suspicion of this deal).

A few years ago, the German government decided that you had to take a test to become a German citizen. This involved one hundred questions about the country's history, government and culture.

I downloaded the test (in English) and proceeded to take it. I actually got 60 percent of the questions right....without any real study. Course, I read more than the average guy, and I had lived in Germany for a decade...so maybe some of this was common knowledge that I acquired.

I noted at some point that some German news folks tried this citizenship test on Germans on the street. Half of them had serious problems and probably weren't going to pass the test. I'm wondering if you gave this intelligence test first to Germans....might they also have problems in showing their own "remarkable" intelligence?

Just my humble two cents on the subject.

FlashForward

Most US TV shows don't make it in Germany as they are shown. There are exceptions...like the X-Files and Baywatch.

This past week...there was a shocker for German TV viewers...in that ABC's FlashForward was cancelled. German fans got upset. They actually were into the show and wanted it continued.

In fact....at least a dozen countries were getting into the show: Spain, England, Scotland, Italy, Russia, Germany, Portugal, South Africa, Australia, Canada, Turkey, Argentina, and Brazil.

The producers of the show are observing this massive call for FlashForward to continue. Some method will likely be devised...perhaps a German or British network backing the show...and then profiting off the video run's.

Carbon Fraud?

What you didn't hear much about today...at least in the American news media and barely anything via finance news...the German cops got orders via the prosecutors and executed search warrants.

The target? Carbon trading. Yeah....legalized carbon trading.

Two hundred and thirty offices and homes were raided in a $238 million dollar episode of tax evasion.

Course, you might ask.....the trigger? Links to emissions trading. If you recall from about two months ago...Interpol and several law enforcement groups were hinting of a massive fraud effort in carbon trading...with the mafia possibly tied to it. Along the way....I'm guessing alot of naive folks who thought they were on the front end of a wave.

Part of this deal....relates to what they call "carousel fraud". Basically, you jump into a mess of speculation....make some profits quickly....and then disappear. So you help to drive up a price...profit...sell...and collect the money overnight, to fall back into the crowd of onlookers.

A trend? The cops and the banks aren't saying. But it doesn't help the cap & trade argument going on in the US...to watch events like this occur.

Bush & German Visit

There is a curious story out of the US and German press from yesterday... concerning a short piece from former President George Bush's wife. Lura Bush suggests...in her new autobiography....that they may have been the target of a poison attack during G-8 summit in Heiligendamm, Germany in 2007.

The curious part to this is both fell violently sick on the second day of the summit at the resort. Even the Secret Service got involved and had some type of suspicion that something had occurred. Adding to this....other members of the US delegation became ill...with one member who today suffers permanent hearing loss from the episode.

The odds? Well....normally, you'd just laugh this off, but the numbers of people involved and the hearing loss episode...well, this kinda makes it one of those that might be somewhat true.

Food poisoning? It's hard to get food poisoning in Germany. In fifteen years.....I only knew three folks who ever got food poisoning from a German establishment (all three were Tex-Mex German restaurants, if you were curious). It just doesn't happen much in Germany.

Seafood that was not prepared correctly? I'd give that one a ninety-percent chance. That's always possible.

A sour upset cook with an agenda? Yeah, there are far left-wing German cooks out there but why risk your entire career on some political agenda?

Some Russian KGB plot? Well....yeah, thats a remote possibility.

So we are left with this curious episode of the Bush visit to Germany. Had Bush died...President Cheney would have assumed the Presidency....so do you really think you've improved anything? I'd rather be hoping it was bad fish prepared the wrong way, and just bad luck that someone didn't catch it. If we were that close to getting Cheney....then Biden is just a quarter of a step away from the Presidency and some cooking nut could accomplish the same deal. Frankly, not something that I'd like to dream about.

Greek Spiral

There's a great article over at the Locale today.

Basically...this Greek-German debt problem is about to go into fourth gear. I suspect by this weekend...over three quarters of the German public will be against any loan, of any type.

The article centered around an opinion of Hans-Werner Sinn of the Ifo Economics Institute.

In a radio interview....he came out very direct....zero chance that Greece can ever pay back the loan. Then, like a cherry on a ice cream sundee....he added that Greeks would eventually ask Germany to waive the debt.

Basically...it's a giveaway deal....and people are beginning to wake up.

What happens here if the public starts to get upset by this weekend and stall this out?

This entire mess in turbo right now. The Greeks need the money within a matter of a couple of weeks. I doubt that they can wait more than 1 month max. If Germany stalls out and says no....the entire EU deal falls apart and the IMF deal is the only one on the table. IMF never waives debt and always demands a massive change in policy. It'd destroy the current Greek government if this occurs.

So as this week unfolds in Germany....watch for regular people on the street to discuss this and by Sunday night...with the chit-chat shows in full swing....it'll be the decision point. I'm betting they say 'no'. And then on Monday....a wide swing on the Euro rate and some Greeks pulling their money out of Greece to hide in the attic.