The German police came out today.....nationally, and said that right now in Germany, there are less Islamist-individuals as a threat in Germany today....than it was a year ago.
The factual number in their database? Currently, 688. It was 748 a year ago.
So what should you take from this, if you were a German?
First, it's a positive thing. Less is less, and it means that something has stalled out the growth pattern. But it's something that you can't put your finger on and say one single thing brought a 10-percent 'cut'. There might be twenty things at work, to trigger the lesser number.
Second, for the 60 who left the database....what exactly happened to them? Well, that story isn't told. Did they leave Germany? Did they go back to Syria or Iraq? Did they go through hard-core detox and just lose their religion? You ought to wonder how the 60 got off the list.
Third, the question which ought to come up now....has radical Islam hit some 'ceiling'? Did the ISIS connection just reach a point where people didn't take it serious or believe in some great war experience? It's a nifty question, but with no answer.
Fourth, with the 688 crowd that remains.....does it worry the cops? I suspect if you asked them in a private room....it still worries them a great deal, and no one is going to lessen the protective measures in most German urban zones.
Fifth, no one asked the question, but you also have to wonder....are there newer members being added, and the older guys simply marrying up and getting 'roots'....so it might not be all super positive? Someone around four years ago made a comment one night on German public TV.....that you didn't ever see older guys with real families running off to Syria or becoming Jihadists. They had something that mattered in their lives. Is this idea taking root in society now?
What happens at the end of 2020, and the question gets asked again, and the number lessens yet again? It'd be a super-positive thing. But it only takes one major attack with a dozen Germans hurt or dead....to end the happiness with the decreasing numbers.
Wednesday, October 16, 2019
On Political Consequences
Last night, I sat and was watching late night news on German public TV. There was a piece where a Polish author/writer came on and gave a 60-second dialog about people not reading enough, lacking understanding, avoiding open-mindedness, and ending with the comment that political consequences are occurring because these people were heading toward a right-wing agenda.
I sat for a whole pondering over her analysis, and was bothered by the statement.
In my mind....what if this narrow-minded business started a decade or two ago, where people closed off their minds to the general public, lacked understanding of the broad landscape, and these people had led everyone toward a left-wing agenda....with the ricochet effect now underway? Yes, the correction to something already dragging people along without public support.
This is the modern-day problem where an intellectual group of people think that if people were just broad-minded....then they'd cross the divide and think like the intellectual folks. Maybe people sit around at dinner-parties or cafes and think along these lines with special friends of theirs....who readily agree with every thought brought up in conversation.
We have this old expression in the US....which more or less talks to the idea of you 'needing to walk in the shoes of other people, to understand them'.
This brings one back to the topic of being narrow-minded, and it affects both the intellectual group and the non-intellectual group. As for the non-intellectuals ever getting into these fancy shoes? I would suggest that they work hard each and everyday, with most just not having ample time to get into this understanding business. And the intellectuals....frankly....probably would like to avoid admitting that they might have attached themselves to positions lacking details.
It's an interesting chat point, but there's just no end-point to the discussion. And political consequences? The sun never sets.
I sat for a whole pondering over her analysis, and was bothered by the statement.
In my mind....what if this narrow-minded business started a decade or two ago, where people closed off their minds to the general public, lacked understanding of the broad landscape, and these people had led everyone toward a left-wing agenda....with the ricochet effect now underway? Yes, the correction to something already dragging people along without public support.
This is the modern-day problem where an intellectual group of people think that if people were just broad-minded....then they'd cross the divide and think like the intellectual folks. Maybe people sit around at dinner-parties or cafes and think along these lines with special friends of theirs....who readily agree with every thought brought up in conversation.
We have this old expression in the US....which more or less talks to the idea of you 'needing to walk in the shoes of other people, to understand them'.
This brings one back to the topic of being narrow-minded, and it affects both the intellectual group and the non-intellectual group. As for the non-intellectuals ever getting into these fancy shoes? I would suggest that they work hard each and everyday, with most just not having ample time to get into this understanding business. And the intellectuals....frankly....probably would like to avoid admitting that they might have attached themselves to positions lacking details.
It's an interesting chat point, but there's just no end-point to the discussion. And political consequences? The sun never sets.
Another German Fake Juvenile Story
About every month or two, German journalists will pick up another fake migrant juvenile story and lay out how the 'kid' faked out the German authorities. This has been going on since 2013, and continually irks the German public because it shows how easily it is to deceive or circumvent the system.
So this case is oddly enough....not about a guy pretending to be a kid, but about a woman portraying herself as a kid.
The basic story told by Focus news magazine this morning.....centers on a woman who came out of Ethiopia in 2012. She arrived in Germany, saying she was 15 years old. The truth of the matter was the young lady being actually 26 years old (an 11-year difference).
Once you establish yourself as a 'kid', you fall into the category of unaccompanied minor refugee. You get automatic acceptance as a refugee, guaranteed to get the German version of the 'green-card'. People can laugh about this automatic standard, but the Germans have attached themselves and can't find any way to escape it.
For three years, she carried on the act. Then in 2015, the authorities kinda figured things out. The amount in this 'trick' that was wasted? 145,000 Euro. This comes to a high number because these 'kids' have to be in a special home, and be adult-supervised, with schooling provided.
The German authorities are a bit angry over this and have attempted to drag the woman into court, and settle on some return of their money. You and I can laugh over amount, and any hope of getting the money back.....but I suspect if she just offered to pay them 15,000 Euro over ten years.....they'd accept that. Added to this mess is the fact that this occurred in the German state of Bavaria, where they hate this type of fraud more than most other states.
Fixing this? Back in the spring of 2018, they had the woman in court, and she was seven months pregnant. The court suspended the case because it felt bad over stressing the woman at this point. But it's come back up now.
How many fake juveniles exist in Germany? It's an unknown number. It might be dozens, hundreds, thousands or even tens of thousands. Mandatory testing? You would think at some point, that the political folks would come to this question. Doctors are pretty divided....there is a test for this age thing which is considered reliable....but a large segment of the doctor profession doesn't want to participate in this business.
Even within Merkel's coalition....it's not really that clear if they could pass mandatory tests. State-wise, it opens up a Pandoras Box if you go this direction.
The general problem I see....particularly among guys who do this trick, is if you are 27 and arrive to say you are 14 years old, you open up this retirement problem.
Imagine being a fake 54 year old guy (having been in German for 30 plus years), and your age is really 67. Physically, you've slowed down and most others in your age bracket can retire. You can't.
Imagine now, that there are 20,000 such fake juveniles around Germany today....all giving a 10 to 12 year age difference. At some point around 2050 to 2060....all of this will come up with a public problem of early retirement for people who faked up their age, and some books will be written about the fake age thing, and how the public got 'screwed'.
So this case is oddly enough....not about a guy pretending to be a kid, but about a woman portraying herself as a kid.
The basic story told by Focus news magazine this morning.....centers on a woman who came out of Ethiopia in 2012. She arrived in Germany, saying she was 15 years old. The truth of the matter was the young lady being actually 26 years old (an 11-year difference).
Once you establish yourself as a 'kid', you fall into the category of unaccompanied minor refugee. You get automatic acceptance as a refugee, guaranteed to get the German version of the 'green-card'. People can laugh about this automatic standard, but the Germans have attached themselves and can't find any way to escape it.
For three years, she carried on the act. Then in 2015, the authorities kinda figured things out. The amount in this 'trick' that was wasted? 145,000 Euro. This comes to a high number because these 'kids' have to be in a special home, and be adult-supervised, with schooling provided.
The German authorities are a bit angry over this and have attempted to drag the woman into court, and settle on some return of their money. You and I can laugh over amount, and any hope of getting the money back.....but I suspect if she just offered to pay them 15,000 Euro over ten years.....they'd accept that. Added to this mess is the fact that this occurred in the German state of Bavaria, where they hate this type of fraud more than most other states.
Fixing this? Back in the spring of 2018, they had the woman in court, and she was seven months pregnant. The court suspended the case because it felt bad over stressing the woman at this point. But it's come back up now.
How many fake juveniles exist in Germany? It's an unknown number. It might be dozens, hundreds, thousands or even tens of thousands. Mandatory testing? You would think at some point, that the political folks would come to this question. Doctors are pretty divided....there is a test for this age thing which is considered reliable....but a large segment of the doctor profession doesn't want to participate in this business.
Even within Merkel's coalition....it's not really that clear if they could pass mandatory tests. State-wise, it opens up a Pandoras Box if you go this direction.
The general problem I see....particularly among guys who do this trick, is if you are 27 and arrive to say you are 14 years old, you open up this retirement problem.
Imagine being a fake 54 year old guy (having been in German for 30 plus years), and your age is really 67. Physically, you've slowed down and most others in your age bracket can retire. You can't.
Imagine now, that there are 20,000 such fake juveniles around Germany today....all giving a 10 to 12 year age difference. At some point around 2050 to 2060....all of this will come up with a public problem of early retirement for people who faked up their age, and some books will be written about the fake age thing, and how the public got 'screwed'.
Tuesday, October 15, 2019
German Jews and Anxiety
Last night, via Germany's public TV network ARD, 'Hart Aber Fair' (Hard But Fair) chat forum show (live) came on, and the major topic was....'How Strong is Hatred for Jews in Germany'.
Two German Jews sat on the panel, along with a Minister of Interior for Lower Saxony (SPD), a Linke Party member, and public TV journalist.
Various points were made....some more hyped-up than others. Some related to facts. Some simply going over public opinion.
Since 1978 when I first arrived in Germany....I've kinda sat in the observation 'seat' and noted the WW II guilt business, and private opinion of Germans. In that initial period of 1978/1979....I worked with older German guys who were in the war and the Jew topic would come up time to time. Most recognized that mob mentality had taken over in their youth, and nothing could be trusted as fact by the last six months of the war.
It surprised me as discussions continued on....most all of these guys knew Jews in their neighborhood or village, who ran shops, banks, or farms. As they said....no one was on a first-name basis, and after the war, there were a number of feelings that ran through their head (way more than guilt). Just surviving in the last six months of the war, and the 1945/1946 period scored fairly high in their mind.
Most Germans from that generation are now gone. The bulk of Germans around today don't hold themselves responsible for the actions of their parents or grandparents.
As for right-wing extremism and the topic of German Jews? The general belief by this group is that the financial world is still controlled by Jewish influence. This was the same attitude in 1919 and the era after WW I. But if you asked the amount of this influence or numbers of the German anti-Jew crowd.....I have serious doubts about it being into the hundreds of thousands, or even into the tens of thousands.
Violence being conducted against the Jews in Germany by Germans? A lot of the destructive actions which lack witnesses can't be attributed back to Germans or non-Germans. When you have a dozen Jewish gravestones toppled over, you can't attribute it to solely Germans. Some attacks around Berlin in the past year or two....can be attributed to non-Germans.
Behind all of this....sit journalists and politicians, wanting to settle Jewish anxiety, and get the blame out on someone or some group. I might agree with this strategy, but if someone ever establishes that 50-percent of Jewish property damage goes back to non-Germans, then you have a vastly different situation on the blame-game.
Meanwhile, if you gauge the entire population of Jews in Germany....it's in the 120,000 to 150,000, depending on if you count both active Jews, and non-participating Jews. This is out of a total population of 82-million residents.
Two German Jews sat on the panel, along with a Minister of Interior for Lower Saxony (SPD), a Linke Party member, and public TV journalist.
Various points were made....some more hyped-up than others. Some related to facts. Some simply going over public opinion.
Since 1978 when I first arrived in Germany....I've kinda sat in the observation 'seat' and noted the WW II guilt business, and private opinion of Germans. In that initial period of 1978/1979....I worked with older German guys who were in the war and the Jew topic would come up time to time. Most recognized that mob mentality had taken over in their youth, and nothing could be trusted as fact by the last six months of the war.
It surprised me as discussions continued on....most all of these guys knew Jews in their neighborhood or village, who ran shops, banks, or farms. As they said....no one was on a first-name basis, and after the war, there were a number of feelings that ran through their head (way more than guilt). Just surviving in the last six months of the war, and the 1945/1946 period scored fairly high in their mind.
Most Germans from that generation are now gone. The bulk of Germans around today don't hold themselves responsible for the actions of their parents or grandparents.
As for right-wing extremism and the topic of German Jews? The general belief by this group is that the financial world is still controlled by Jewish influence. This was the same attitude in 1919 and the era after WW I. But if you asked the amount of this influence or numbers of the German anti-Jew crowd.....I have serious doubts about it being into the hundreds of thousands, or even into the tens of thousands.
Violence being conducted against the Jews in Germany by Germans? A lot of the destructive actions which lack witnesses can't be attributed back to Germans or non-Germans. When you have a dozen Jewish gravestones toppled over, you can't attribute it to solely Germans. Some attacks around Berlin in the past year or two....can be attributed to non-Germans.
Behind all of this....sit journalists and politicians, wanting to settle Jewish anxiety, and get the blame out on someone or some group. I might agree with this strategy, but if someone ever establishes that 50-percent of Jewish property damage goes back to non-Germans, then you have a vastly different situation on the blame-game.
Meanwhile, if you gauge the entire population of Jews in Germany....it's in the 120,000 to 150,000, depending on if you count both active Jews, and non-participating Jews. This is out of a total population of 82-million residents.
The 'End of Time' Kids
This story popped up and I'll tell it as just one of those odd things that occurs around Europe occasionally.
Cops got this call in a rural area of the Netherlands. They come out. Young guy in his early 20s.....long hair, beard, ill-fitting clothing, and seemed 'lost'. He'd stopped in some pub, asked for beer, and then after consuming five beers.....he spoke of a need for 'help'.
So the bartender gets the cops and they take this guy to the farm that he says that he lives on.
He and five other 'children' basically all lived out of the basement of the farm house....waiting for the 'end of time'. Dad? He lived around the house but seemed to be mentally 'unfit'. Mom? No where to be found. The six 'kids'? All are 18 or older. Mentally, they seem to have marginal skills to cope, and I would suggest, based on the story.....that all suffer serious mental issues. It may very well be that both Mom and Dad were crazy to start with.
Neighbors being suspicious? Yes, but no one ever called the cops (this is the Netherlands, and one tendency that you see is avoiding reporting on people).
The odd thing in this story is that the young guy at the pub was kinda surprised that other people existed in the world.....when he walked into the pub. It would appear that Dad kept all the kids in the dark about civilization, and the existence of other people.
Good script for a movie? Maybe.
Cops got this call in a rural area of the Netherlands. They come out. Young guy in his early 20s.....long hair, beard, ill-fitting clothing, and seemed 'lost'. He'd stopped in some pub, asked for beer, and then after consuming five beers.....he spoke of a need for 'help'.
So the bartender gets the cops and they take this guy to the farm that he says that he lives on.
He and five other 'children' basically all lived out of the basement of the farm house....waiting for the 'end of time'. Dad? He lived around the house but seemed to be mentally 'unfit'. Mom? No where to be found. The six 'kids'? All are 18 or older. Mentally, they seem to have marginal skills to cope, and I would suggest, based on the story.....that all suffer serious mental issues. It may very well be that both Mom and Dad were crazy to start with.
Neighbors being suspicious? Yes, but no one ever called the cops (this is the Netherlands, and one tendency that you see is avoiding reporting on people).
The odd thing in this story is that the young guy at the pub was kinda surprised that other people existed in the world.....when he walked into the pub. It would appear that Dad kept all the kids in the dark about civilization, and the existence of other people.
Good script for a movie? Maybe.
Paid Protesters?
Are Extinction Rebellion protesters paid for their effort in London?
According to journalists with the Daily Mail....yes, up to 400 Pounds per week (459 Euro).
First, that's the max you can get and I suspect only the top ten 'leaders' in London make that kind of money. The bulk of them are probably in the 150 to 200 Pounds (170 to 240 Euro).....basically 'beer-money' or 'weed-money' for the week.
Same thing in Berlin? No one says much about that. I suspect that even if the public German TV journalists found out about such a deal....they'd just keep quiet and avoid discussing that.
So this is paid disobedience? Well, it's a harsh thing to say or suggest.
Here's the thing to shed a tear over....some capitalist had to make a ton of money....to be able to burn his profits on supporting anti-capitalists. Sit there for a while and ponder over that objective. In a normal world, it shouldn't occur.
But here's the cherry on this cake....if the support money wasn't there...would this crowd even show up? For a Saturday alone? Maybe. But for a week or two? No, I have serious doubts about this.
As for who paid the money? It's best not to ask about that part of the story.
According to journalists with the Daily Mail....yes, up to 400 Pounds per week (459 Euro).
First, that's the max you can get and I suspect only the top ten 'leaders' in London make that kind of money. The bulk of them are probably in the 150 to 200 Pounds (170 to 240 Euro).....basically 'beer-money' or 'weed-money' for the week.
Same thing in Berlin? No one says much about that. I suspect that even if the public German TV journalists found out about such a deal....they'd just keep quiet and avoid discussing that.
So this is paid disobedience? Well, it's a harsh thing to say or suggest.
Here's the thing to shed a tear over....some capitalist had to make a ton of money....to be able to burn his profits on supporting anti-capitalists. Sit there for a while and ponder over that objective. In a normal world, it shouldn't occur.
But here's the cherry on this cake....if the support money wasn't there...would this crowd even show up? For a Saturday alone? Maybe. But for a week or two? No, I have serious doubts about this.
As for who paid the money? It's best not to ask about that part of the story.
Der Blitzer Weg (The Traffic Camera Road)
Over the past month, my son has had this deal brewing for a new used car, which lies at a town about 10 km north of Frankfurt. So us to reach this mountainous town, we have to ride upon one single road....roughly 18 km (24 minutes of a drive).
Along this one single route, are five separate blitz-cameras (traffic speed control cameras), with speed signs varying to 30, 50, 60, 80, and 90 kph. Number of speed changes in this 11.5 road? A minimum of 18 times.
It's the one single German road that I've come to hate with a passion because you have to pay continual attention to speed changes going from 60 kph to 80 kph, and back to 60 kph. Reason? Extreme curves, hidden oncoming traffic, and turn-offs.
At some point last year, some damage had been done to one of the camera devices (personal anger shown by some German), and they even put up extensive fencing to prevent you conducting damage on the camera.
Frustrated locals? I suspect if you asked folks about it.....more than three-quarters of people transiting the road are angry about the abundance of cameras. Money rolling in from the five cameras? It probably gets up into the 100,000 Euro range each week.
Now that they've turned off the point business for 30 kph or less over the speed limit....it's just a fine-payment system that affects the public.
Luckily for me....it's the last day I have to transit this road.....the kid picked up the new car, and I'll just cross off that road for all future traveling.
Along this one single route, are five separate blitz-cameras (traffic speed control cameras), with speed signs varying to 30, 50, 60, 80, and 90 kph. Number of speed changes in this 11.5 road? A minimum of 18 times.
It's the one single German road that I've come to hate with a passion because you have to pay continual attention to speed changes going from 60 kph to 80 kph, and back to 60 kph. Reason? Extreme curves, hidden oncoming traffic, and turn-offs.
At some point last year, some damage had been done to one of the camera devices (personal anger shown by some German), and they even put up extensive fencing to prevent you conducting damage on the camera.
Frustrated locals? I suspect if you asked folks about it.....more than three-quarters of people transiting the road are angry about the abundance of cameras. Money rolling in from the five cameras? It probably gets up into the 100,000 Euro range each week.
Now that they've turned off the point business for 30 kph or less over the speed limit....it's just a fine-payment system that affects the public.
Luckily for me....it's the last day I have to transit this road.....the kid picked up the new car, and I'll just cross off that road for all future traveling.
The Odds of the Three Million Threat
So the threat laid out by Erdogan of Turkey is that if the EU gets all huffy over the attacks being conducted in northern Syria....he'll release three-million Syrian refugees to make way to Greece and then it'll be a five-star mess for the EU to resolve. In simple terms, Erdogan is holding a great hand in poker.
A month ago, if you'd laid out this potential threat, I would have laughed. Today, it's approaching a 50-50 odds situation. He might be crazy enough to do it.
So this essay is to address the threat, and impacts.
To say all three-million would be released at once? That's a joke. You'd require a vast number of rubber rafts (way over 100,000 of them). What you'd see in the initial week is probably 20,000 migrants bused up to the beach area of the western coast of Turkey, and given a chance to board rafts....which would be dragged out near Greek isles. They'd land and then the Greeks would be stuck with them.
An immediate meeting would be held with the EU. It'd be a bloody mess that they really can't handle. They might find some method of taking the 20,000, but when you establish that another 20,000 will raft over to Greece next week, and it could go on for months....the EU would be dissolved into a fairly big mess.
The value of Chancellor Merkel's reputation? In a matter of just a month or two....trying to make this a national problem to take in a fairly large group of Syrian migrants....she'd lose public trust. It's one thing to suggestion taking 50,000 in a short-period of time, but to suggest it might go up to 1.5-million? No, that won't sell to the general German public.
So the odds that the EU will just stay quiet and not agree with Trump's economic threat on Turkey? I'd give it a 90-percent chance. It's a sad situation for the EU crowd and the pro-Merkel people to be put into.....where Trump is on one single occasion is right, and they can't side with him or face down Turkey's threatening behavior into Syria.
A month ago, if you'd laid out this potential threat, I would have laughed. Today, it's approaching a 50-50 odds situation. He might be crazy enough to do it.
So this essay is to address the threat, and impacts.
To say all three-million would be released at once? That's a joke. You'd require a vast number of rubber rafts (way over 100,000 of them). What you'd see in the initial week is probably 20,000 migrants bused up to the beach area of the western coast of Turkey, and given a chance to board rafts....which would be dragged out near Greek isles. They'd land and then the Greeks would be stuck with them.
An immediate meeting would be held with the EU. It'd be a bloody mess that they really can't handle. They might find some method of taking the 20,000, but when you establish that another 20,000 will raft over to Greece next week, and it could go on for months....the EU would be dissolved into a fairly big mess.
The value of Chancellor Merkel's reputation? In a matter of just a month or two....trying to make this a national problem to take in a fairly large group of Syrian migrants....she'd lose public trust. It's one thing to suggestion taking 50,000 in a short-period of time, but to suggest it might go up to 1.5-million? No, that won't sell to the general German public.
So the odds that the EU will just stay quiet and not agree with Trump's economic threat on Turkey? I'd give it a 90-percent chance. It's a sad situation for the EU crowd and the pro-Merkel people to be put into.....where Trump is on one single occasion is right, and they can't side with him or face down Turkey's threatening behavior into Syria.
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