The Dutch House of Representatives approved the "Actual Return in Box 3 Act" (Wet werkelijk rendement box 3), a major reform that will apparently tax unrealized gains on assets like stocks, gold, silver, bonds, and crypto at a 36-percent rate starting in January 2028.
So I'll make four predictions.
First....the upper one-third of society...who invests into various things....will have a long talk with their tax-clerk....between now and mid-2026. They will have a precise number in their mind of the increase.
The middle-third of society....who might marginally invests, will also have a brief talk. Their 'pain' will be existing but minor in detail (figure a thousand Euro more on taxes).
Second, probably around a half-a-million folks will reach a state of mind that staying in the Netherlands (either in retirement, or working) is not possible. So the bulk of 2026 is to be used in surveying an exit. Some might find Dubai pleasant. Some might find work in Germany, Austria, or Czech....to be the solution. That crazy Trump guy might even put a ad into some Amsterdam paper....suggesting US employment for highly qualified folks.
Third, most of 2027 will be a exit path. Properties will go up for sale. Some companies will start to worry....they can't fill positions. Some companies will even survey the idea of moving totally out....to avoid this chaos.
Fourth....finally....mid-2027....the Dutch gov't admits that they are deep into a hole, without a solution.
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