I probably spend around 15 hours a week....looking at business news in general....from across the globe (more so the US, and to some degee...German trends). So....five things I've noted here early in 2026:
1. There is a rising German government deficit. The general government balance is predicted to get worse....around minus-4-percent of the GDP in 2026.
Why? Well...fiscal policies are noted, and increased spending. If you looked for historical comparisons....it's something you haven't seen in 40-plus years.
2. The gov't lowered it's GDP growth forecast. The growth for 2026? Around .8-percent.....which is a bit lower than 2025 estimates. Why? Mostly due to external trade pressures.
3. There are rising corporate insolvencies going on....increasing by roughly 8-percent in late 2025, and still trending into 2026.
4. There is a noticeable subdued consumer confidence brewing. German consumer sentiment is in a decline....concerns over inflation, job security, and tax burdens, leading to higher savings rates and restrained spending are noted by the public.
5. Finally, I read through a piece from the Ifo Business Climate Index...the sector is reflecting pessimism about the first half of 2026....with companies citing uncertainty and weak expectations.
To be honest, I would question if Germany has ever emerged out of the Covid-damage era.
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