Friday, February 20, 2026

Murder Story Unfolding

 Police were called to a house in  the Allgau region (far south, Baden-Wurttembeerg state)...Steinheim is the village.

Two bodies found....older German couple (early 60s).

This was late on Wed night.  So by Thursday AM....suspect picked up...45-year old Iraqi guy.

Motive at this point?  Zero.

Problem?  Well....on 8 March....there's set to be a state election.  Up to this point...AfD was set for a 3rd place win (20-percent in polling in past week).  Greens set for 21-percent, and CDU likely to win with 29-percent.

Over the next two weeks....a shift?  It's possible that some voters who were non-AfD-types....will pause over this,  and vote AfD.  I'm not talking about a major shift...but I might go to suggest a 3-point  upward tick for AfD, and both CDU and Greens losing  a point each (probably same story for SPD). 

You could have a scenario where the CDU still wins (say with 27-percent) and their intended partner in the coalition....the Greens...get 19-percent)....meaning it's not enough to reach 50-plus percent. 

This means a 3-party coalition (likely CDU-Greens-FDP or CDU-Greens-SPD).  It's not the end of the world, but it weakens the CDU brand.

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