5 May 2026: Germany: 6 Things

 1. Leipzig, car drove through a shopping district....killing 2, wounding 3.

Guy is local boxer-trainer....known to police (meaning they've had encounters with him before)....German....had been recently released from a psychiatric hospital.

2.  Focus business article: "Managers and entrepreneurs have never been as disappointed with the political leadership in Berlin as they are after just one year of the Merz government. The bitter consequences of this inability to reform are already becoming apparent."

End of 2024....commerce core of Germany were desiring a true recovery out of the Covid-era....have yet to really see it.

3. New Mercosur agreement.....between EU and South American countries in effect.  Big shipment of Brazilian chicken ordered/delivered to Greece. Test done....EIGHTY-percent of first shipment....contaminated with Salmonella, 

4.  The wealth tax (Vermögenssteuer) is now being discussed in Germany.  Proposal to reintroduce an annual tax on high net personal wealth (assets minus liabilities, like real estate, stocks, cash, etc., but not on income).

I should say this...up until 1997....such a tax existed in old West Germany and unified Germany....Constitutional Court examined it, and said it was unfairly written.

Negatives?  Well...capital flight will obviously occur.  I will note that some folks are commenting that this idea  violates the coalition agreement that rules out tax increases (CDU would have to agree strongly with this).  Critics also point to past experiences and studies showing wealth taxes can be hard to administer and may reduce investment.

Likely passing?  I'd give it a 50-50 chance.  On the positive side....current stagnation would continue, and more German companies would be bought-out/owned by Chinese operations.  This would speed up declining public support of both CDU and SPD parties....leading to gains for  Greens/Linke and AfD.

5. BYD (China car company) in talks to buy a VW factory in Dresden.

6. Study done....on Germans having  'cash' to invest in retirement funds....roughly two out of three....lack such cash-flow.

5,000 Troop Removal Announcement

 The US is withdrawing 5,000 US troops from the US base in Vilseck, Bavaria (Upper Palatinate). 

This is reported around noon...via BILD.

The troops being withdrawn are from the Stryker Brigade. The brigade is stationed at Rose Barracks on the Grafenwöhr training area. 

What is not said....if the troops go back to the US, or are to be based in another European country.

It Just Got Tougher To Get Swedish Citizenship Status

 Sweden passed a couple of changes....to obtain citizenship:

1.  You need eight years of residence....without  'troubles' (meaning arrests)

2.  Show a income

3.  Cleared a point of not getting any social benefits

4.  Passed the Swedish language exam

5.  Finally....accomplished the exam on Swedish values and society

I looked at the list....these are not difficult issues.  On the income requirement?  Well...even if you were a bakery assistant/clerk, or a bus-driver....you'd show some  type of income and not be a poverty-status welfare guy.

How Might A Base Closure Collapse A Economic Bubble

 Back in the 1990s...I was stationed at Ramstein, and got into a conversation with a American retired GI....who had this interesting economic story.

In the region of Ramstein....some German developer had acquired a farm area that was 15 minutes driving from the east-gate and west-gate.  He had this idea of property development.....building houses which were attractive to Americans, and 'pricey' (meaning that he knew the max-housing pay-out for senior NCOs, and  most officers....which was about 2 times what a German would pay.

The development would end up as fifty homes....all upscale....this plotted around 1980-1982 timeframe. 

Local wealthy well-to-do Germans bought the homes, and were to be used as rentals...paying the German back more quickly, and thus getting the bank mortgage done ten years prior to 'normal'.  In your retirement years....this was a big-deal for added pension status.

The key failure?  Well....the developer had two 'books'....for the construction guys/tax authorities.  He brought in  non-Germans and non-EU folks....cash-basis, and avoided a lot of tax reporting.  He got into divorce trouble, and the wife reported.....which got him several years in prison.  

Yeah, the houses still sold, and throughout the 1980s, 1990s, 2000s, 2010s, 2020s....it's paid well.

If the base were to close....the money-maker would collapse.

Around Ramstein today? I'd  guess that twenty-odd developments and apartment buildings like this exist.  The number of businesses, cafes, restaurant that have 50-percent American GI?  A humble guess at more than a hundred....maybe going toward 150.  

Yeah, they've worked hard to build  up a economic bubble.

If it were to close?  In the first year alone....there's likely to be 2,000 insolvencies to be declared....with a minimum of 1,000 apartments/homes to be laying there vacant....some for five to ten years.

Political Chatter Over Saxony-Anhalt's Election (Early Sep 2026)

 6 Sep 2026 is the state election day for S-A.

Oddly....NO polling has been done by anyone since mid-March 2026.

How things looked from that poll?  AfD was leading  with 38-percent, and the CDU was sitting at 25-percent. Three other parties were over the 5-percent point, and marginally showing numbers.

I suspect things have changed a bit, and AfD presently sits near 42-percent....with the CDU  in a weakened position (probably barely at 22-percent).

Yeah, it's possible that the SPD falls below the 5-percent point, and that you end up with the BSW folks, the Greens, and Linke...accounting for 20-odd percent.

The non-seat-holding votes adding up to 15-plus percent?  That's the real 'fear'....that you'd have a fair number of votes....without representation and weakening any chance for the CDU to build a coalition

My General Prediction On The Trump Base Closures

 After pondering this for a while....I will offer three predictions:

1.  This first wave out of Germany (the 5,000)....I suspect will be Spang's 52nd Wing, the 10th AAMDC (Missile guys), and at least one additional Army unit....which I think they will all go to one Poland military base (consolidated).

2.   The Spain-Italy exit?  Just a crazy thought....I think this deal-making going on in Morocco....will lead to a US base....with most all of  the US assets in Spain and Italy going to one Moroccan military base (on the Atlantic).

3.  Finally, I suspect that Romania will end with some US assets (out of Germany).  

Pure speculation....but truthfully, Trump can say NATO survives on, but in other locations.  

4 May 2026: Germany: 3 Things

 1.  Trump indicates that closures of military bases in Italy and Spain will also occur.  He's not saying an end to NATO....which begs the question....where would he move operations?

2. All this increased US tariff stuff?  Well....this goes back to an agreement signed by the US and the EU in July of 2025....which was to be set to 15-percent, if the EU accomplished a number of vote-requirements.

Well....on their  'must-do' list....this was not that important....so the vote measures were never done.  Crapped upon the BMW, Mercedes and VW folks?  Yeah....they have a reason to be angry over the lack of attention.

3.  Via the Sunday night forum show (Caren Miosga - moderator)....Chancellor Merz gave a talk.  I watched about 25 minutes of it....he mostly appears with goals, but no real plan....he did threaten the SPD that he has been "very patient so far." 

Mixed message....some Germans say it sounds like the beginning of the end. Some might say that the CDU Party is simply another version of the SPD Party.

3 May 2026: Germany: 4 Things

1.  Timmy-the-whale-update:  Well....he finally exited the barge.  The story now?  Mostly over...I suspect.

2.  The US announcement of 5,000 troops leaving Germany?  Well....Trump updated this slightly....saying  'more' than 5,000 are going.

They aren't saying the 5,000 will return to the US.   My thoughts....the 5,000 will end up in Poland (probably Spang's 52nd Wing as a large part of the 5,000). 

3. Yesterday....Bavaria's Premier-President Söder....gave a talk...suggesting on the abolition of the electricity tax and the solidarity surcharge.

Yeah, it'll freak out the SPD folks.  But most Germans would readily agree on the electricity tax being curtailed/cut.

4.  Two guys were shot in the Neukölln district of Berlin last night....one fairly serious. Police investigating.