World Cup Problem

This past week...I've watched two podcasts...one dealing with World Cup soccer chatter, and the other with hotels in World Cup locations...in fear of lacking reservations.

So, the chatter is mostly centered on a lack of fans coming to spend money to watch the games.

Tickets being privately marketed for $2,000....for what would be a 200 Euro pricing situation?  Yeah.

Hotel rooms marketed for $2,500 a night (luxury-plus) for what would be normally $250 a night?  Yeah.

Will there be stadiums filled with 20-percent of fans?  Normally in the first round....with marginal teams in the mix....you would not see filled stadiums.  Those hotels thinking they can market $200 a night hotel rooms for $1,000?  They were obviously stupid.

The key thing will be the quarter-finals....if you have folks  unwilling to pay $1,000 for a $100-ticket.

This Syrian Deportation Dilemma

 The German federal authorities say....there's in the range of 10,000 to 11,000 Syrians on a deportation order....meaning they've done things (probably drug sales, assaults or made no effort to integrate)...to  deserve deportation.

Issue?  Well....they need entry permits to return back to Syria.  In the news this week, it came up that Syria has declined the pass-permit request for this group.

What'll happen?  My best guess is that Syria can be influenced with a cash situation...probably in the region of 50,000 Euro per individual. Yeah....figure 500-million Euro to get some deal going.

Hurting public support with the CDU-CSU-SPD coalition if they have to 'buy' a way out?  Yeah....that's the negative.

This being the only group on deportation orders? No....as of late March (2026)....there's 237,000-plus folks on orders to leave.   If you do the numbers....roughly 20,000 individuals yearly....leave, but there's always a 'incoming' group to keep the numbers inflated to 200k-plus.

22 May 2026: Germany: 7 Things

 1. Russia/Putin:  From this trip to China....if you measure the activities/honors....Putin got about a quarter of the attention that Trump did.  

I would add....some financial data from the Russian gov't has come out....noting that around 11-percent of all bank loans for commercial property are 'life-less' (the ability to cover is zero....so the Russian banks are sitting on dead-weight). 

2.  Kevelaer, Germany (NW):  School project for 14-year old kids in sex-class.....they were given the idea of setting up a red-light-district 'house' and setting up a 'menu' for services.  School director said there was nothing 'crazy' about the project.

3.  This reform idea of setting retirement in Germany at 70 (from 67).....but would not come into play until 2060.

Maybe if we were talking about bank clerks, or bakery folks....it might work. But for about half of all jobs....age 70 won't work.

4.  Tom Kaulitz....one of the Tokyo Hotel band members....has signed some contract to be a soccer-expert for the World Cup games. 

5.  Bus safety inspections.....I noted a story that one out of every five German bus inspections....is a failure.

6.  Plagiarism 'hunter' Stefan Weber now says there are 125 'problems' with the thesis of Thüringen's Minister-President Mario Voigt (CDU).

What will likely happen?  University will have to devote some time, and determine if true, and how bad the situation is.  

7.  German fast-track divorces discussed now.....if there is some element of violence.

Sachsen: INSA Poll

 State election not until 2029 (fall):

AfD leads with 42-percent.

CDU with 21-percent.

SPD with 6-percent.

BSW with 7-percent.

Greens with 6-percent.

Linke with 9-percent.

Long way away from election....but lays out the path of a problem....no one will partner with AfD...leaving the CDU (2nd place) to form a gov't with 4 partners.

21 May 2026: Germany: 7 Things

 1.  Timmy-the-dead-whale-update: Well....during the recovery of the whale's body....the animal experts determined Timmy was a lady-whale.  How they missed this fact during the 'help-and-rescue' business?  No idea.

2.  Marcel Reif, noted German sports journalist....gave a talk yesterday....saying if AfD comes to power....he will exit Germany.

I looked for polling....one came up for 2023....where Germans were asked about leaving if AfD came to power, and number cited was 15-percent.  However...they didn't ask where exactly these folks would go.

My wife (German in nature) will get unhinged on occasion and say some leave-Germany-BS.....but she can never cite where this dream-land would be.

3.  German Interior Ministry has this idea to offer....to get Syrians to return 'home'.  Deal?  8k Euro.

Yeah, lot of criticism popped  up over this amount of money suggested. 

4.  Some discussion popping up over VAT (sales tax) reform.  Suggestion popped up with the idea...ZERO VAT for food items....but the normal VAT would go to 21-percent (from current 19-percent).

5.  Last night....I watched a interview with FOCUS columnist Jan Fleischhauer, on the ARD talk show "Maischberger."

His chief point....that Germany would be better off with a CDU-CSU-Green coalition.

Quote:  "I believe the country would be further along today if there had been a black-green coalition, because the SPD is such a worn-out, broken bunch. As a psychologist, you would say it only shows regressive tendencies. Yes, that's true!"

7. Tempelhof update: For those Americans who might have been stationed in Berlin...during the 'glory-days'....the discussion of re-use is still going on of the airfield.

Present idea?  To build 21,400 new apartments on the former airport grounds, 30 percent of which would be reserved for people with housing vouchers. Runway/ramps....to be left as is...with a light woods to be planted on one side.

Berlin will hold elections in September, and the development of Tempelhof Field will once again be a campaign issue. 

To some degree....I'd  say around 30-to-40 percent of the Berlin public don't want anything done with the field/runway....just making the whole thing a 'park'.  This  group doesn't want it turning into a drug-use-park.  

My Crystal Ball On German Politics Over The Next 3 Years

 Only my speculation....where things are leaning right now.

First, confidence with the public with Chancellor Merz is dwindling....to the degree that within three months...I predict that the CDU Party will meet and lead Merz to hand party-leadership over to Bavaria's CSU 'Boss'....Soder.

At that point...for the remainder of the year....ZDF and ARD (the two public TV networks) will weekly interview and 'hype' Soder....leading to a lesser view of Merz.  Around the end of 2026....the CDU executive committee will talk to Merz and say....for the good of  upcoming state elections in 2027, you need to cite some  reason to leave.    

Then based on CDU-CSU-SPD support....Soder gets the role.

AfD?  By January of 2027....I see them close to 33-percent of public support, and the CDU-CSU folks near 19-percent. 

2027 will be a odd year.....where some marginal improvement occurs for the CDU-CSU (back up to  21-percent, and the SPD slipping to national numbers of 9-percent. The Greens and AfD together....will amount to near 50-percent of the national polling mid-2027.

The top two problems seen by the public?  Economic woes, and the fact that 50-percent of those on German welfare are non-Germans. 

AfD will figure the connection of the two issues, and this will be the top theme for the remainder of 2027.

Soder ends up being respected, but unable to resolve the budget/economic problems.....with the partnership of the SPD being  unable to fix much of anything.

At some point in 2028....early election occurs....with the public frustrated with both the CDU-CSU and the SPD.  AfD?  They are able to 'win' with around 35-percent of the vote, but no  party will partner-up for the coalition.  So you end up with a vastly weakened CDU-CSU, SPD, Greens....mostly leaning left.

Public frustration?  Doomed...the coalition likely lasts two years max.

At some point....after 2030....AfD will be near 50-percent on the win, and the freak-out of journalists, and the left-audience will occur.  The burden on the  welfare system....cleared within one year.  What folks will eventually say....if you work and pay taxes....you aren't a burden on the system, and that the CDU-CSU and SPD always had this 'tool'....never using it. 

20 May 2026: Germany: 7 Things

 1.Timmy-the-whale-update.  Well...Timmy, of course...is dead....floating near the Danish coast.  Denmark says they will recover Timmy, and perform a autoposy.

2.  WELT piece, presently....the German gov't is the only one in a hiring-plus-up....industry and commerce...slacking.

3.  Just a odd PR-gimmick....Chancellor Merz (CDU Party) is on a 'outing' with the SPD Party....trying to drum up public standing for them.

At some point yesterday.....he says: "I don't just stand on the left, I also come from the left."

Fair number of CDU-voters commented on social media.....perhaps there's a reason why they aren't buying in Merz's job performance.

4.  INSA, the polling folks....came up with a poll on the German Chancellor's preference.  One in three Germans wants Alice Weidel (AfD) as chancellor. Only 22-percent want Merz. But the winner?  36-percent of Germans who don't see anyone with the 'talents' for  Chancellor.

To be honest....ever since Covid....there's been a lack of confidence in Chancellors.

5.  New buy-a-E-car program.....you could get up to 6k Euro on a purchase of a E-car.

Based on numbers....fair comment to say that E-car buying has slacked-off/peaked.   Maybe this bonus will help.

6. Heat wave by Monday?  Well...there's weather chatter suggesting 30C (86 F) for my valley.

7. Bavaria state: statistical data got out....from Burgergeld (welfare pay)....55-percent of folks getting it....are non-German.  

It'll be discussed and heavy criticism will come over this.

German Patriot Missiles Going To Turkey?

Well....yeah. Announced yesterday.  The German Defense Ministry announced that the Bundeswehr will send one Patriot missile battery and 150 German soldiers.

Deployment is scheduled to begin at the end of June 2026 and last 90 days.  

The German unit will replace a U.S. Patriot unit currently stationed in Turkey and will operate under NATO’s Integrated Air and Missile Defense situation.

New INSA National Political Poll

AfD: 29-percent (up 1)

CDU-CSU: 22-percent (down 1)

Greens: 14-percent (up 1.5)

SPD: 12.5 percent (down .5)

LINKE: 10.5 percent

BSW: 3.5 percent

FDP: 3.5 percent

Observation: If you were on the left of the spectrum....voting SPD....you likely are eyeballing the Greens as a alternative.   If you add up the lefty-group....it's near 40-percent of the public currently....but heavily divided.

Thinking And Pondering

 

For a week or two...I've been pondering this data graphic (2025 info).

On the positive side?  Germany as a nation....is overflowing with tax revenue....while the median household net wealth is 'crap'.

Some would view it, and say....well....the gov't is taking wealth to redistribute and equalize things. The problem with that....roughly 20-percent of the German public...even with redistribution....are in a poverty situation.  If this were the priority/mission....they are doing a crappy job.

Solution?  To be honest, if you asked on a priority to resolve this....there's probably fifty things ahead of improving net wealth.  All of the parties probably agree on that part of the landscape.

Even if they had more net wealth....would they do a good job on investing, improving their retirement, or live happier?  

19 May 2026: Germany: 7 Things

 1. MDR (regional public TV network....to eastern region of Germany)...announced yesterday....for next 3 years, no Tatort episode productions from their region. Cash-flow problem.  TV crew/team heavily critical of decision.

Basically....the 'governors' limited increase on TV tax to public TV, and the reaction are staged 'cuts'. What will fill the hours?  No one says much....probably reruns, game-shows, and older movies.

I  sat four nights ago...watching a 1963 cowboy movie at prime-time while watching a regional public channel.  'Nevada Smith'.....excellent movie, but odd to be in prime-time setting.

2. 2,995 gas stations (of 15,240 stations) have violated the twelve-noon gas pricing rule.  No word if gov't will 'punish' them.

3.  Weidel (AfD 'Boss') has moved in the popular politician listing to the top five of Germany (1st time ever).  Oddly, in the ranking....she's higher than Bavaria's Soder.

4. US doctor who had been in Africa.....has ebola....now kept in Germany.

5.   My impression of AfD's Björn Höcke?  

Intelligent guy....educated...I'd rank at least two AfD folks ahead of him on party status.  

Negative?  If he gives speeches....there's always this 'hint' of nationalism...leading back to speeches of the 1930s.  Maybe accidental....maybe intentional.

Currently....he's a state-player....not on the national path.

6.  'Jump' and 'Orange' were driving schools in the Berlin region.  One day (in the past month)....they (the management)....up and disappeared....with all the deposits.

Path leads to Bulgaria....fake schools.  Authorities investigating.

7.  Become apparent after the police had to shoot that escaped tiger in Leipzig....there is NOT a national code of rules on exotic animals.  What rules do exist....differs state by state.  

Going to be a discussion....to have a national regulation about keeping dangerous pets.

18 May 2026: Germany: 7Things

 1.  If you watched ARD (public TV) last night....9:45....the Carin Miosga forum show....it was a fairly long live chat with CSU's Soder (Premier-President of Bavaria).

Basically....he's selling himself as the potential replacement for Merz...if a step-down occurs.  On the interview?  I'd give him high marks.

2.  Tiger-Queen story?  Well....in Leipzig over the weekend, cops got called....tiger loose.

They arrive to find a real tiger....ending up shooting it. Apparently...this gal in Leipzig has a private collection (11 of them), and this one got loose.

Germany has a license program for exotic pets and strict requirements.  Based off reports....it doesn't appear that she has a current existing license.   

3.  Crisis has started up in the European Song Competition.....some Germans are tired of losing...to the point that they are asking why allow the state-culture fund funnel money into the deal.  Amount?  I looked it up...comes to around half-a-million Euro per year.

I doubt if it's a huge number (probably into the tens of thousands feeling this way).

4.  At current pace of things....by the end of 2026....AfD's numbers will  reach 30-percent on polls (my humble belief).  It makes things very difficult with the CDU-CSU folks, and how they build future partnerships/coalitions.

5.  Austria: 67-year-old woman hiker....attacked by cows while crossing a meadow....dead.

6.  Interior Minister asking for 10 billion Euro for civil defense.

7.  Green Party talking up prioritizing child poverty in Germany. 

After A Week In The Hospital

 Ten random thoughts:

1.  I had first-class care.....finding almost no criticisms.

2.  Food-wise....it did get 'boring' after the 5th day.

3.  I probably watched twelve hours of CNN/BBC over the 6 days.  Yeah, there is still a element of propaganda existing.

4. It was pretty nifty to have a refrigerator in the room (pull-out drawer) and sip cold liquids.

5.  Nurse came by one morning while I was on the inverted hospital bed (my feet about a foot above my head), and got a pulse rate of 40 out of me.  He and the Doc got concerned.  I was ultra-relaxed that morning.  If I had a hiding place in the house for a hospital bed....yeah, I'd buy one.

6. The 'cantina' in the clinic offers beer.

7.  On my index of ultra-boring....1-to-10....it was a '12'.

8.  To step in.....finally getting to a bed....I had to encounter and pass through 12 offices/steps.  Luckily, it was not an emergency.

9. Free coffee.....all day long.  

10.   Free bananas and free pears....all day long. I probably haven't eaten a pear since the 1980s.

Higher Tax Talk

This past week, I noted a conversation/interview....where German economist Marcel Fratzscher spoke up for higher taxation on wealth being generated in Germany.

Curiously....same interview....he felt pretty sure that German retirement will eventually be set to age 70.  And no....he rejected the idea of different retirement ages for various professions. 

I paused over this.

Higher taxation isn't selling well...between the CDU-CSU and SPD folks.

Also, if you quizzed Germans....it's probably 98-percent against age 70 retirement.

Exploding Price in Germany

https://x.com/i/status/2054396218412085355

Hospital Stay

Well...shocked I am.  Staying at HSK.  Premium room, 48 in tv, decent menu, free bottle of water, and refrigerator in the room.  IV hook up 3x a day with Aciclovir for shingles.  No real pain, yet.

Room cost?  105 Euro per day...figures Tricare covers around 90 percent.   In the US, this would have been $500 a day.

Zero criticism except nurses wanting to check on you hour by hour.

Quiet Until The Weekend

 Will be lounging as of tomorrow AM.....in a Wiesbaden clinic....doc say shingles.  Says I have to stay for 3 nights....so no chatter for a couple of days.

Two German Holidays At Risk?

Well....the Chancellor (Merz) is to have a meeting with the SPD rep (Klingbeil). To show increased 'production'.....there is this suggestion to dump two holidays  (1 May, and either Christi Himmelfahrt (Ascension Day) or Pfingstmontag (Whit Monday / Pentecost Monday).

Public appeal? Zero.

The idea that the SPD would agree to dump May-Day?  Zero.

To show some mathematical plus-up? More or less....16 extra man-hours a year....for each working adult.  

10 May 2026: Germany: 6 Things

 1.  The Hantavirus ship is now parked at Tenerife (the Spanish isle).  Supposed to be a medical team (in hazmat suits) checking each guest out.

2. Putin said something to the effect that the 'special operation' is about to end. Maybe BS...maybe some conclusion.

3. Tuesday, here in Germany....CDU-CSU and SPD bigwigs to meet and  talk over 'path' ahead.  Reportedly, Merz has said...on a number of issues, there has to be a firm 'conclusion'.  If this is not met....the rumor goes that Merz would collapse the coalition.  

Maybe BS....but I suspect that the SPD is fearful of a crappy result if a fresh new election would occur (like 12-percent or less).

4.  Trump hinted....whatever troops leave Germany....odds are....they move to Poland. NATO continues on.  

5.   Putin say.....he wants former Chancellor Schroeder....to head  up talk with the EU....to get Russia relations on 'track'.  Trade?  That's the top priority....I would suspect. 

6. Rumor started up....Linke, SPD and Greens...would exit Twitter and their 'hype' would only be seen on Bluesky.

I looked for numbers....only 2-million Germans have accounts currently on Bluesky.  The hope here....if they left Twitter/X....others would leave.  The worst scenario....1-to-2 million add  Blueesky, but stay on Twitter as well...getting both sides of the spectrum.

My Village Fest

 My village, on the outer ring of Wiesbaden, started their weekend fest yesterday.  The wife and I spent four hours there.  Two observations:

1.  It's EXPENSIVE.  Food/beverage-wise....just the two of us...we spent near 70 Euro ($80). If you had kids.....it's five Euro for each ride.  Beer was reasonable....near 5 Euro per half-liter.  Corndogs?  Well....they had them for 5 Euro each (I skipped that).

2.  Security-wise....street-blockers and  private security around. You felt safe, but it obviously came with a cost-factor.

If you had two kids....each would have demanded 100-plus Euro for the weekend.

9 May 2026: Germany: Four Things

 1. I don't normally follow the royals of the UK....but this odd German news  item popped up.....Fergie (former wife of Prince Andy)....apparently had a 'hot-affair' going on for several years with P. Diddy.  

On news value....it's marginal.  But you just wonder how they met up, and if Epstein was involved.

2.  On the Hanta virus updates?  One key thing I  note.....German doctors are pretty 'firm'....no one they have under their care....is bad-off.  A good example....if you have four-star medical care going on....you likely will survive.

3.  Focus travel article: flight cancellations across Germany....now generally expected this summer.  Fuel issues driving this.

4.  Three-day cease-fire in effect for Ukraine-Russia conflict.

Serious economic problems probably dragging Russia into this.

This Germany Economic 'Bubble' Spiral

Economists argue over this....some say the spiral started with Covid....some say it started  in 2022 as Covid became a non-issue....some will say between 2017 and 2020,  you could see industry in decline.

If you see a discussion going on....they usually say bad policy without consequences at the ballot box carried the nation to the current point.

Lately.....the news media (public TV) says the decline started with the Iran 'war'...missing everything from 2022, or 2023 or 2024.

The funny thing?  The reason why so many Germans voted for the CDU/Merz in the last election....was that he understood commerce/business/economics.  The general feeling was that he would serve as some 'Moses' character....bringing things back into focus..

So....at this point?  Merz had to build  a coalition around the SPD...who need higher taxes to cover the promised programs. SPD numbers?  If you look at current polls....they marginally can get 12-percent of the national vote.  

Yeah, there is a drama unfolding....with most Germans disgruntled about the trend.

8 May 2026: Germany: 4 Things

 1.  Leipzig car-attack episode from Monday.  Update: authorities now say....for a while (long before the event)...the German attacker 'heard voice' (paranoid schizophrenia situation). 

I'll go and predict...judge evaluates the guy and he's set into a mental facility....no charges.

2. Interest in German money-market accounts up....some banks over 3-percent now for savings.

3. Public forum show from Thursday night....ZDF....political chatter, and the idea of replacing Merz as Chancellor came up.  The person talked about?   Bavaria Premier-President Soder (CSU).

No one has polled CDU-members (only card-carriers could  vote on such a matter), and the SPD would still likely be a coalition-partner (they'd have to agree to this matter, with some changes likely to occur). 

4.  Commerzbank is cutting 4,000 more jobs shortly.  

7 May 2026: Germany: 9 Things

 1.  New German military questionnaire is mandated for a response.  So, the Bundeswehr said yesterday....roughly 25-percent of young men are NOT responding.

From the group  that did respond....around half of them said they were agreeable to a boot-camp situation, and six months of 'duty'.  Bundeswehr added...just because they said they were agreeable....doesn't mean they'd sign up.

Those who did not respond?  Well...the Army says they will be threatened with a fine.  

2.  It's been around 2 years since Germany legalized weed/cannabis.   Some folks are beginning to comment....nothing much has changed...meaning that illegal weed sales is still being conducted.  

3.  Read a Focus business article....for you to retire in Germany and be 'middle-class'....pension level has to be 1850 Euro a month.

4.  Odd Lufthansa story from yesterday....they are reviewing options for long-haul flights...if jet-fuel shortages exist.

One idea  being floated....having  a stop-over (probably in the stan-republics or Russia)....to fuel up for Asia trips.  

You'd be adding two to three hours to the trip.  

5.  Economics Minister....Katherina Reiche....wants to overturn the ban on oil and gas heating starting in 2045. 

Drafted up currently.  Chancellor Merz says this idea is “open.” 

SPD support?  I'd give it a 10-percent chance at best.....climate target is their focus.

The agenda is to force everyone down a heat-pump 'path'.

6.  New poll for Sachsen-Anhalt state election (in four months):

AfD at 41-percent.  CDU at 26-percent.  

Greens at 4-percent (not enough for seats).  SPD at 7-percent.  Linke at 12-percent.

Meaning?  AfD, if they stay at 41-percent...can't build a coaltion....the CDU could in theory partner with SPD and Linke to have a 50-plus-percent coalition.

HOWEVER, in the next four months...if AfD reaches 45-percent...it'll be fairly close to a NO-coalition situation.....one party gov't at that point.

7.   Lot more chatter on this Hantavirus.  It apparently has a 2-to-21 day incubation period. Presents initially as flu.

8. I watched about 15 minutes of public forum show....Maischberger....last night...via Channel 1.

Climate change talk....guest wanted to turn German citizens into CO₂ traders....where you had good numbers/bad numbers....and you would figure into certificate trading.

Pretty sure that 90-percent of society would not buy into this idea.

9. Carsten Linnemann, General Secretary of the CDU Party, gave a talk yesterday....suggesting that 50,000 card-carrying CDU members....might exit from the party.

Hondius Story

 For about 36 hours, I've been following this hantavirus story.

Basic facts....it's a small passenger vessel that is Dutch-flagged...named 'Hondius'.  They've had a outbreak on it of hantavius (likely got it from Argentina when it last docked).  

149 guests were onboard....three dead from the virus so far.

What the medical folks say....the virus is mostly spread by rodents/mice...not by human-contact.  Well....there's some discussion that 'maybe' it evolved and goes person-to-person.

Dynamics?  Death-rate is figured between 1-percent and 15-percent....but your  fragile health situation might increase your odds.  Based on reporting....the three dead were older folks.

So the folks surviving....would like to get off, and they are nearing the Canary Islands....so there is this request to dock. The Premier-President of the Canary Islands, Fernando Clavijo, says 'no-way'...opposing the plan of the Spanish central government and the World Health Organization (WHO). 

Forcing the PM (Sanchez) into a corner?  I expect some medical authorities to fly in and take charge...letting the vessel to dock, but holding passengers for a few days until they sort out the mess.

Quarantining passengers?  Yeah....there's that option.

If they find it has progressed to human-to-human contact?  Docking is going to be a tough discussion.

Ghost Story

 I will occasionally pick up some Brit news pieces.  This AM....I got to one oddball story.  The Daily Star says...something to the effect...they found a paranormal 'expert' who claims the UK is running out of ghosts.  Reason?  Well...they say ghosts are dying off.

The problem with some story like this....a hundred Brits will read it....with forty folks getting chatty at the local pub tonight...about ghosts dying off.  

Bartender will get into this...asking HOW the ghost die off....with this conversation going on for three hours.

Someone will eventually suggest we need fresh new ghosts...out of thin air.

Then someone will suggest....can't we get AI to interface, and provide fake-ghosts?

The reality?  They've run out of Prince Harry or King Charles bogus stories to discuss.

Two Odd Stories

 1.  Is Israel about to provide jet-fuel to Germany?

Yes.....5 May agreement.  Israeli Energy and Infrastructure Minister Eli Cohen and Foreign Minister Gideon Sa'ar announced that Israel will transfer surplus jet fuel to Germany (Berlin’s request). 

Necessity?  Well....this follows the ongoing crisis in the Strait of Hormuz (blocked by Iran since late February.

Israel confirmed it has enough surplus from its refineries to begin shipments.  What's left out of the story...is the amount.

Shocker?  This move was coordinated quickly and publicly.

Natural gas talked about? Yes....they've got plenty to export.  

2.  At some point (July-August)....the Pentagon's UFO files are directed to be released.  Lot of speculation building up.

I'll  go ahead and predict that zero German belief...if the files suggest crashes, recoveries, or alien visitations.  

You could bring the alien on ARD, do a 6-hour interview with the guy, and roughly 99-percent of German society would suggest 'deep-fake' BS.

6 May 2026: Germany: 8Things

 1.  Timmy-the-whale-update:  Argument brewing....some pro-Timmy folks now believe that data-tracking/status stuff....is bluffing, and that Timmy is dead.

Proof?  Not much to really ponder upon.  If you ask me....leaving Timmy in that German coastal  area....you would have seen Timmy dead sooner or later.

2.  Biontech, the Mainz company that made the Covid vaccine.....is in serious financial woes. 

3. Poll done....ONLY 11-percent of Germans are satisfied over the CDU-CSU-SPD coalition.  Done by RTL/N-TV.

Another recent poll centered on around 60-percent of Germans wanting new election.

My advice....just stick with the present crew....unless you really wanted maximum turmoil/craziness.

4. About that Leipzig car-attack....if you read through twenty-odd news groups....you come to three odd factors.

First, that car-ramming attacker....apparently did admit himself to a psychiatric ward....on his own. In this process....I'll note that he was married and had a kid.

Second, somewhere along a couple of days in the clinic...the management/psychiatrists apparently decided that this guy was too violent/aggressive to be in their facility....so they put him out on the street.

Third, he was dismissed Sunday....Monday comes.....where he rammed the car through a crowd in Leipzig’s city center at 80 km/h.

Out of the 410-odd psychiatric clinics that exist in Germany....you can't really find data to suggest what number handle violent folks...I'm guessing  less than 5-percent.

5.  Explaining Romania?  Summer of 2025...election came up and a pro-EU party 'won'....but they had to form a 4-party coalition to gain power (getting 50-plus percent of seats).  I'll just say it.....this was a weak/marginalized coalition.  Ten months later....because of economic woes...one of the parties walk out....ending the coalition, and forcing a new election. Just being pro-EU was not enough.

6.  Poll done by INSA....suggesting how Germans feel about the next coalition.  So around  26-percent of Germans want a CDU-CSU-AfD coalition.  23-percent want a CDU-CSU-SPD coalition (what exists today).  24-percent want a Green-SPD-Linke coalition (all left).  Then you have the 4th option....27-percent who really give a damn.     

Yeah...the 4th group is ahead of the other three.

7.  Another poll done....says 55-percent of  Germans expect a premature end to the current CDU-CSU-SPD coalition.....meaning more than half the voters feel this way.

8. Vileck mayor talking over exit of the 5,000 US troops from local area....millions in income....to dissolve.

What Percentage Of Germans Worry About Artificial Intelligence ('KI' in German)?

A insurance company asked this in mid-2025, publishing the results in their annual  R+V “Ängste der Deutschen 2025” survey....concluding it was near 32-percent...who 'feared' KI.

For a number of months, it's been on my mind....one out of three....with fear.

Why?

Well....I think a fair number got this 'panic' via public TV and mass media.  If you went to details....most probably have the fear that their jobs are in jeopardy....because of KI.

I asked my German wife over this...her company has been talking KI for five years now....swearing up and down that it was 'coming'.  So far....the performance level in tests? They've been crap. It is getting smarter....but the wife says at the pace of things, it might be twenty years before the humans are dismissed.

The day when I really start to worry? It's probably when ARD or ZDF (the public TV networks)....dismiss the live performance newscast each night....letting KI take over and give the nightly news.

What Is The App W Social?

 W Social (also called W or wsocial.eu) is a new European social media platform.  It's supposed to be a 'clean'/'pure' alternative to platforms like X (Twitter). 

Initially talked about...January 2026...at the World Economic Forum in Davos and is supposed to start a launch in the next couple of days here in Europe.

Design?  Well...it's supposed to be VERIFIED humans only....NO bots.  Every single user must verify their identity with government ID.  Biometric data? To be processed via server-side and deleted immediately afterward....leaving only a code, passport country and year of birth.

Who will use it?  My belief is a fair number of politicians, journalists,  and intellectuals.

Trying to compare to numbers at F-Book or X?  No....even at the one-year point....I'll predict they have maybe 10-percent of the numbers.

Selling to the public?  Over  and over....the term 'verified' will be uttered.  Eventually, the EU will demand that F-Book and the rest....must also be verified.

Just four Political Observations Over Germany

 1.  I think that Merkel (without really planning it)....brought the CDU Party to a totally neutral point....where they are mostly a 'partner' of the SPD Party. The conservative 'label' is long gone.

Not a plus or minus....just something you have to contend with, at this point.

2. If you were to discount Chancellor Merz, and seek out some new 'filler'....with the broad requirement being financial/economic 'mechanic'....there's no one really existing in that category.

3.Personal opinion....a majority of Germans are eyeballing rich Germans....saying they got too much wealth, and we got to take more of that away.

After they accomplish this....if the economy still seems crappy, what's the next invention to resolve problems?

4. Within ten years....German healthcare will be so expensive....that the gov't arranges some procedures in India, Vietnam and Thailand....flying Germans there...for inexpensive care.

5 May 2026: Germany: 6 Things

 1. Leipzig, car drove through a shopping district....killing 2, wounding 3.

Guy is local boxer-trainer....known to police (meaning they've had encounters with him before)....German....had been recently released from a psychiatric hospital.

2.  Focus business article: "Managers and entrepreneurs have never been as disappointed with the political leadership in Berlin as they are after just one year of the Merz government. The bitter consequences of this inability to reform are already becoming apparent."

End of 2024....commerce core of Germany were desiring a true recovery out of the Covid-era....have yet to really see it.

3. New Mercosur agreement.....between EU and South American countries in effect.  Big shipment of Brazilian chicken ordered/delivered to Greece. Test done....EIGHTY-percent of first shipment....contaminated with Salmonella, 

4.  The wealth tax (Vermögenssteuer) is now being discussed in Germany.  Proposal to reintroduce an annual tax on high net personal wealth (assets minus liabilities, like real estate, stocks, cash, etc., but not on income).

I should say this...up until 1997....such a tax existed in old West Germany and unified Germany....Constitutional Court examined it, and said it was unfairly written.

Negatives?  Well...capital flight will obviously occur.  I will note that some folks are commenting that this idea  violates the coalition agreement that rules out tax increases (CDU would have to agree strongly with this).  Critics also point to past experiences and studies showing wealth taxes can be hard to administer and may reduce investment.

Likely passing?  I'd give it a 50-50 chance.  On the positive side....current stagnation would continue, and more German companies would be bought-out/owned by Chinese operations.  This would speed up declining public support of both CDU and SPD parties....leading to gains for  Greens/Linke and AfD.

5. BYD (China car company) in talks to buy a VW factory in Dresden.

6. Study done....on Germans having  'cash' to invest in retirement funds....roughly two out of three....lack such cash-flow.

5,000 Troop Removal Announcement

 The US is withdrawing 5,000 US troops from the US base in Vilseck, Bavaria (Upper Palatinate). 

This is reported around noon...via BILD.

The troops being withdrawn are from the Stryker Brigade. The brigade is stationed at Rose Barracks on the Grafenwöhr training area. 

What is not said....if the troops go back to the US, or are to be based in another European country.

It Just Got Tougher To Get Swedish Citizenship Status

 Sweden passed a couple of changes....to obtain citizenship:

1.  You need eight years of residence....without  'troubles' (meaning arrests)

2.  Show a income

3.  Cleared a point of not getting any social benefits

4.  Passed the Swedish language exam

5.  Finally....accomplished the exam on Swedish values and society

I looked at the list....these are not difficult issues.  On the income requirement?  Well...even if you were a bakery assistant/clerk, or a bus-driver....you'd show some  type of income and not be a poverty-status welfare guy.

How Might A Base Closure Collapse A Economic Bubble

 Back in the 1990s...I was stationed at Ramstein, and got into a conversation with a American retired GI....who had this interesting economic story.

In the region of Ramstein....some German developer had acquired a farm area that was 15 minutes driving from the east-gate and west-gate.  He had this idea of property development.....building houses which were attractive to Americans, and 'pricey' (meaning that he knew the max-housing pay-out for senior NCOs, and  most officers....which was about 2 times what a German would pay.

The development would end up as fifty homes....all upscale....this plotted around 1980-1982 timeframe. 

Local wealthy well-to-do Germans bought the homes, and were to be used as rentals...paying the German back more quickly, and thus getting the bank mortgage done ten years prior to 'normal'.  In your retirement years....this was a big-deal for added pension status.

The key failure?  Well....the developer had two 'books'....for the construction guys/tax authorities.  He brought in  non-Germans and non-EU folks....cash-basis, and avoided a lot of tax reporting.  He got into divorce trouble, and the wife reported.....which got him several years in prison.  

Yeah, the houses still sold, and throughout the 1980s, 1990s, 2000s, 2010s, 2020s....it's paid well.

If the base were to close....the money-maker would collapse.

Around Ramstein today? I'd  guess that twenty-odd developments and apartment buildings like this exist.  The number of businesses, cafes, restaurant that have 50-percent American GI?  A humble guess at more than a hundred....maybe going toward 150.  

Yeah, they've worked hard to build  up a economic bubble.

If it were to close?  In the first year alone....there's likely to be 2,000 insolvencies to be declared....with a minimum of 1,000 apartments/homes to be laying there vacant....some for five to ten years.

Political Chatter Over Saxony-Anhalt's Election (Early Sep 2026)

 6 Sep 2026 is the state election day for S-A.

Oddly....NO polling has been done by anyone since mid-March 2026.

How things looked from that poll?  AfD was leading  with 38-percent, and the CDU was sitting at 25-percent. Three other parties were over the 5-percent point, and marginally showing numbers.

I suspect things have changed a bit, and AfD presently sits near 42-percent....with the CDU  in a weakened position (probably barely at 22-percent).

Yeah, it's possible that the SPD falls below the 5-percent point, and that you end up with the BSW folks, the Greens, and Linke...accounting for 20-odd percent.

The non-seat-holding votes adding up to 15-plus percent?  That's the real 'fear'....that you'd have a fair number of votes....without representation and weakening any chance for the CDU to build a coalition

My General Prediction On The Trump Base Closures

 After pondering this for a while....I will offer three predictions:

1.  This first wave out of Germany (the 5,000)....I suspect will be Spang's 52nd Wing, the 10th AAMDC (Missile guys), and at least one additional Army unit....which I think they will all go to one Poland military base (consolidated).

2.   The Spain-Italy exit?  Just a crazy thought....I think this deal-making going on in Morocco....will lead to a US base....with most all of  the US assets in Spain and Italy going to one Moroccan military base (on the Atlantic).

3.  Finally, I suspect that Romania will end with some US assets (out of Germany).  

Pure speculation....but truthfully, Trump can say NATO survives on, but in other locations.  

4 May 2026: Germany: 3 Things

 1.  Trump indicates that closures of military bases in Italy and Spain will also occur.  He's not saying an end to NATO....which begs the question....where would he move operations?

2. All this increased US tariff stuff?  Well....this goes back to an agreement signed by the US and the EU in July of 2025....which was to be set to 15-percent, if the EU accomplished a number of vote-requirements.

Well....on their  'must-do' list....this was not that important....so the vote measures were never done.  Crapped upon the BMW, Mercedes and VW folks?  Yeah....they have a reason to be angry over the lack of attention.

3.  Via the Sunday night forum show (Caren Miosga - moderator)....Chancellor Merz gave a talk.  I watched about 25 minutes of it....he mostly appears with goals, but no real plan....he did threaten the SPD that he has been "very patient so far." 

Mixed message....some Germans say it sounds like the beginning of the end. Some might say that the CDU Party is simply another version of the SPD Party.

3 May 2026: Germany: 4 Things

1.  Timmy-the-whale-update:  Well....he finally exited the barge.  The story now?  Mostly over...I suspect.

2.  The US announcement of 5,000 troops leaving Germany?  Well....Trump updated this slightly....saying  'more' than 5,000 are going.

They aren't saying the 5,000 will return to the US.   My thoughts....the 5,000 will end up in Poland (probably Spang's 52nd Wing as a large part of the 5,000). 

3. Yesterday....Bavaria's Premier-President Söder....gave a talk...suggesting on the abolition of the electricity tax and the solidarity surcharge.

Yeah, it'll freak out the SPD folks.  But most Germans would readily agree on the electricity tax being curtailed/cut.

4.  Two guys were shot in the Neukölln district of Berlin last night....one fairly serious. Police investigating.

What Defeated Russia In Reality?

 I would offer five observations of what happened to cause Russian failure?

1. The Russian generals wanted to fight the 1960s version of their 'war-plan'.....tank-warfare.....Ukraine refused.

2.  NATO quietly gave intelligence 'value' to Ukraine....tons of it in fact.

3.  Drone-warfare became a bigger deal...than tanks.

4.  Russian mentality of minimum training....lessen  their impact on the field.

5.  Russian banking collapse/failures....became a bigger deal than the war itself, but Putin failed to grasp that.

What Caused The Scholz Coalition Collapse In 2024?

There were simply factors from day one....which made the threesome (SPD-Greens-FDP) disagreeable.

Near the end....the trigger-point was a months-long deadlock over the 2025 federal budget. There was going to be a shortfall of funds....which the SPD and Greens pushed for increased public investment and spending.  Lindner of the FDP (Finance Minister) said 'no'....going to the route of strict fiscal discipline. 

If the SPD or Greens had controlled the 'seat' of the Finance Ministry?  Well....they would have gotten the taxes increases, and the FDP would have forced into a corner...mostly grumbling.

How doe this 'frame' fit for the problems currently?  The SPD wants a bigger budget, and to reach it....they insist upon more taxation.  About half of the CDU-CSU crew....aren't that supportive of  the idea.

I'm not saying this is a carbon copy of the 2024 problem....but it has certain elements of that problem.

Why was Merz the CDU 'answer'?  Well....he was to be this economical smart guy....to get the economy back into turbo-mode.  So far, he's failed....which begs a lot of questions.

I will offer this observation...between the energy cost issue....the Russian-Ukraine issue....the import of cheap Chinese goods....and true cost of environmentally saving the Earth, the German economy is stagnant.  It doesn't matter who comes next to be Chancellor, the same issues exist.  

How I Think The Ukraine-Russia 'War' Ends

 Back three years ago....I thought that Putin would 'wake-up' and grasp his no-win situation....I was wrong.  In his epic-mindset....there has to be a surrender of Ukraine.

So the end in my mind....Putin at some point will have a stroke/heart-attack, and goes into hiding for several weeks.  The Putin-in-charge crew keeps the events engaged...but at some point....several of the generals figure out the stroke.

Over a 24-hour period....the Duma gets involved, and there's likely to be a massive shut-down of military operations.

Then....Russian troops just start packing up and leaving the front.  

Mass confusion of who is in charge follows...for several days.

By the 7th day of this new era....there is no military front, and every Russian soldier has left the region.

At this point,  I think it's entirely possible that a break-up occurs....Russia turning into five-to-ten states...maybe more. 

Ukraine...in effect.....wins.  

2 May 2026: Germany: 6 Things

 1.  Timmy-the-whale-update:  Well....they got to the North Sea drop-off point....opened the barge door, and encouraged Timmy to escape.

Timmy said 'no', and has remained in the barge.

They probably have food/supplies to linger for a week, but it doesn't appear that Timmy wants to leave his new 'friends'.  Timmy likes the attention and free-food deal....'freeloader-status'?

2. Chancellor Merz, and the coalition?

Well....lot of chatter has started up....people losing confidence....CDU-CSU losing numbers....heartburn going on.

So....four possible outcomes: (1) CDU-CSU might dissolve the coalition....going minority situation....with very poor outcomes likely. (2) Putting Merz up for a vote of confidence....hoping that the members of the CDU-CSU and SPD would agree....this being very risky. (3) Following a no-confidence vote....asking the members to elect a new Chancellor....without anyone in a clear 'win' category.  (4) Finally....call for a new election....with bad numbers anticipated for the SPD, and CDU-CSU.

Added to the crap?  Well...people are now focused on the Saxony-Anhalt election this fall....with the AfD nearing 40-percent (likely be top winner, but unable to form a gov't).  The retired President of Germany (Gauk) came out yesterday and said that the CDU (likely 2nd place) ought to take up a relationship with the Linke Party and form a gov't coalition for the state.  I would imagine half of all CDU-voters in the state would say 'what-the-hell', and avoid voting for the CDU....going to the AfD and giving them 50-plus percent.  His speech really didn't help matters.

There's a 'path' or two for Merz remaining, but this CDU-CSU and SPD relationship is in a spiral....mostly over tax growth and budget issues.  Oddly, it's almost the same causes for the last coalition to end.

3.  Trump says 5,000 US troops leaving Germany....but didn't say Army or Air Force, or installations.

4.  Jet-fuel shortages look more and more likely by June.

5.  'Social-cohesion' lacking....public poll near 70-percent...in Germany.

6.  If a no-confidence vote occurs, and a new federal election occurs....who do I see as CDU-CSU likely candidate?  My four picks are Markus Söder (CSU), Hendrik Wüst (CDU), and Thorsten Frei (CDU) and Julia Klöckner (CDU).

If you were grading on capabilities....Söder leads.  If you grade on public appeal...Julia Klöckner leads.  If you grade on insider-support (Merkel-wing)....Wüst leads.

From the SPD?  It won't matter....they won't get past 12-percent (both the Greens and Linke will be ahead of them).

In Case You Were Curious

Could Chancellor Merz be replaced by the CDU/CSU parties?

No. Internal party/group meetings have no legal power over the office of Chancellor.

The only thing the CSU/CDU could do?  Remove him as party/group leader, or pressure him to resign, they can't end his term as Chancellor. 

The minute that a new party/group 'boss' is talked about?  That will indicate an 'end' of some type over the next year. (My belief)

Salary Chatter

 This morning (Friday)....there was a Q-and-A for the Chancellor.

Some German gal noted herself having cancer, and that there's financial problems with health insurance (on that point....it's been a big deal in the past month)....then she focused her question on the Chancellor (Merz)....asking how they can talk up raising the salaries of the Bundestag members.

Well...Merz pushes back....saying: "At no point has it been considered to raise the salaries of the federal government."

I knew otherwise....but went to Grok/AI: "The monthly base remuneration for MPs is automatically adjusted once a year on 1 July, based on the nominal wage index (Nominallohnindex) published by the Federal Statistical Office. This mechanism has been in place since 2014 and was reconfirmed by the Bundestag in June 2025 for the current legislative period."

This July....the new salary will be 12,330 Euro (a month).

Yeah, it is a ridiculous amount, but living in Berlin has a huge cost factor.

Was the cancer lady correct?  Not entirely.

You see....the system is on 'automatic'....meaning there is no talk...no approval...no discussion.

Was the Chancellor correct?  Well...he was rather blunt, but said the truth.  The problem is....a lot of German folks have health issues, and think their misery/suffering....needs to be shared..

On  a PR-mess index?  1-to-10?  It's a '6' in my humble belief.

1 May 2026: Germany: 6 Things

1.  Timmy-the-whale-update:  The tugboat with the whale-barge is nearing the North Sea now....with plans to  exit Timmy within 24 hours.  Curiously,  with sound equipment....they've noted Timmy 'humming' whale-happiness tunes.

Added to the analysis....whale-experts (there appear to be hundreds if not thousands....suggest that Timmy will freak out if dumped into the North Sea.

2.  Focus headline:  Teacher shocked as she finds she has more money in retirement than she can spend.

Basic story.....she has a teacher pension (from the state) and a private pension that she put money into for twenty-plus years.  

This hype has been building up for six months in Germany....as probably 30-to-40 percent of Germans have a crappy pension going on.

3. Ended up watching Maybritt Illner public forum show last night on ZDF (public TV, channel 2). Yeah, it was 10:15 PM....fairly late. Topic?  Pension reform.

Five folks....hyping the pension chaos to the maximum.  More taxes is the only outcome that the group pushes across.

I will make the observation....if the current tax agenda comes....it probably only gives the retirees and government leadership three years of 'rest'...before the next reform, and the next new tax agenda is on display.  If you were a upcoming retiree...you'd best pack up and move to Thailand....to control your spending and enjoy your last twenty years without much tax chaos.

At the end of the show...I remarked to the German-wife....maybe the answer is to get kids (meaning age 11/12) out of school and working...paying into the pension-pot.  That set the wife off big-time...citing some 1903-law which mandates you can't hire anyone under age 13.  Then she hyped-up that you need to be educated until age 16.

4.  Reviewing German news on Iran....it'd be correct to say a dozen different 'head-of-state' figures exist, and it's impossible to draft a peace-treaty with any of them.

5. German gov't says it will start a 'food-reserve' in case of war.  Basically, they are going to have some warehouses....with canned-food....just sitting there.

6.  Finally, an observation over Trump's  talk of removing US troops from Germany.  There really wasn't that much negativity last night via the German news.  I expected more.