What Defeated Russia In Reality?

 I would offer five observations of what happened to cause Russian failure?

1. The Russian generals wanted to fight the 1960s version of their 'war-plan'.....tank-warfare.....Ukraine refused.

2.  NATO quietly gave intelligence 'value' to Ukraine....tons of it in fact.

3.  Drone-warfare became a bigger deal...than tanks.

4.  Russian mentality of minimum training....lessen  their impact on the field.

5.  Russian banking collapse/failures....became a bigger deal than the war itself, but Putin failed to grasp that.

What Caused The Scholz Coalition Collapse In 2024?

There were simply factors from day one....which made the threesome (SPD-Greens-FDP) disagreeable.

Near the end....the trigger-point was a months-long deadlock over the 2025 federal budget. There was going to be a shortfall of funds....which the SPD and Greens pushed for increased public investment and spending.  Lindner of the FDP (Finance Minister) said 'no'....going to the route of strict fiscal discipline. 

If the SPD or Greens had controlled the 'seat' of the Finance Ministry?  Well....they would have gotten the taxes increases, and the FDP would have forced into a corner...mostly grumbling.

How doe this 'frame' fit for the problems currently?  The SPD wants a bigger budget, and to reach it....they insist upon more taxation.  About half of the CDU-CSU crew....aren't that supportive of  the idea.

I'm not saying this is a carbon copy of the 2024 problem....but it has certain elements of that problem.

Why was Merz the CDU 'answer'?  Well....he was to be this economical smart guy....to get the economy back into turbo-mode.  So far, he's failed....which begs a lot of questions.

I will offer this observation...between the energy cost issue....the Russian-Ukraine issue....the import of cheap Chinese goods....and true cost of environmentally saving the Earth, the German economy is stagnant.  It doesn't matter who comes next to be Chancellor, the same issues exist.  

How I Think The Ukraine-Russia 'War' Ends

 Back three years ago....I thought that Putin would 'wake-up' and grasp his no-win situation....I was wrong.  In his epic-mindset....there has to be a surrender of Ukraine.

So the end in my mind....Putin at some point will have a stroke/heart-attack, and goes into hiding for several weeks.  The Putin-in-charge crew keeps the events engaged...but at some point....several of the generals figure out the stroke.

Over a 24-hour period....the Duma gets involved, and there's likely to be a massive shut-down of military operations.

Then....Russian troops just start packing up and leaving the front.  

Mass confusion of who is in charge follows...for several days.

By the 7th day of this new era....there is no military front, and every Russian soldier has left the region.

At this point,  I think it's entirely possible that a break-up occurs....Russia turning into five-to-ten states...maybe more. 

Ukraine...in effect.....wins.  

2 May 2026: Germany: 6 Things

 1.  Timmy-the-whale-update:  Well....they got to the North Sea drop-off point....opened the barge door, and encouraged Timmy to escape.

Timmy said 'no', and has remained in the barge.

They probably have food/supplies to linger for a week, but it doesn't appear that Timmy wants to leave his new 'friends'.  Timmy likes the attention and free-food deal....'freeloader-status'?

2. Chancellor Merz, and the coalition?

Well....lot of chatter has started up....people losing confidence....CDU-CSU losing numbers....heartburn going on.

So....four possible outcomes: (1) CDU-CSU might dissolve the coalition....going minority situation....with very poor outcomes likely. (2) Putting Merz up for a vote of confidence....hoping that the members of the CDU-CSU and SPD would agree....this being very risky. (3) Following a no-confidence vote....asking the members to elect a new Chancellor....without anyone in a clear 'win' category.  (4) Finally....call for a new election....with bad numbers anticipated for the SPD, and CDU-CSU.

Added to the crap?  Well...people are now focused on the Saxony-Anhalt election this fall....with the AfD nearing 40-percent (likely be top winner, but unable to form a gov't).  The retired President of Germany (Gauk) came out yesterday and said that the CDU (likely 2nd place) ought to take up a relationship with the Linke Party and form a gov't coalition for the state.  I would imagine half of all CDU-voters in the state would say 'what-the-hell', and avoid voting for the CDU....going to the AfD and giving them 50-plus percent.  His speech really didn't help matters.

There's a 'path' or two for Merz remaining, but this CDU-CSU and SPD relationship is in a spiral....mostly over tax growth and budget issues.  Oddly, it's almost the same causes for the last coalition to end.

3.  Trump says 5,000 US troops leaving Germany....but didn't say Army or Air Force, or installations.

4.  Jet-fuel shortages look more and more likely by June.

5.  'Social-cohesion' lacking....public poll near 70-percent...in Germany.

6.  If a no-confidence vote occurs, and a new federal election occurs....who do I see as CDU-CSU likely candidate?  My four picks are Markus Söder (CSU), Hendrik Wüst (CDU), and Thorsten Frei (CDU) and Julia Klöckner (CDU).

If you were grading on capabilities....Söder leads.  If you grade on public appeal...Julia Klöckner leads.  If you grade on insider-support (Merkel-wing)....Wüst leads.

From the SPD?  It won't matter....they won't get past 12-percent (both the Greens and Linke will be ahead of them).

In Case You Were Curious

Could Chancellor Merz be replaced by the CDU/CSU parties?

No. Internal party/group meetings have no legal power over the office of Chancellor.

The only thing the CSU/CDU could do?  Remove him as party/group leader, or pressure him to resign, they can't end his term as Chancellor. 

The minute that a new party/group 'boss' is talked about?  That will indicate an 'end' of some type over the next year. (My belief)

Salary Chatter

 This morning (Friday)....there was a Q-and-A for the Chancellor.

Some German gal noted herself having cancer, and that there's financial problems with health insurance (on that point....it's been a big deal in the past month)....then she focused her question on the Chancellor (Merz)....asking how they can talk up raising the salaries of the Bundestag members.

Well...Merz pushes back....saying: "At no point has it been considered to raise the salaries of the federal government."

I knew otherwise....but went to Grok/AI: "The monthly base remuneration for MPs is automatically adjusted once a year on 1 July, based on the nominal wage index (Nominallohnindex) published by the Federal Statistical Office. This mechanism has been in place since 2014 and was reconfirmed by the Bundestag in June 2025 for the current legislative period."

This July....the new salary will be 12,330 Euro (a month).

Yeah, it is a ridiculous amount, but living in Berlin has a huge cost factor.

Was the cancer lady correct?  Not entirely.

You see....the system is on 'automatic'....meaning there is no talk...no approval...no discussion.

Was the Chancellor correct?  Well...he was rather blunt, but said the truth.  The problem is....a lot of German folks have health issues, and think their misery/suffering....needs to be shared..

On  a PR-mess index?  1-to-10?  It's a '6' in my humble belief.

1 May 2026: Germany: 6 Things

1.  Timmy-the-whale-update:  The tugboat with the whale-barge is nearing the North Sea now....with plans to  exit Timmy within 24 hours.  Curiously,  with sound equipment....they've noted Timmy 'humming' whale-happiness tunes.

Added to the analysis....whale-experts (there appear to be hundreds if not thousands....suggest that Timmy will freak out if dumped into the North Sea.

2.  Focus headline:  Teacher shocked as she finds she has more money in retirement than she can spend.

Basic story.....she has a teacher pension (from the state) and a private pension that she put money into for twenty-plus years.  

This hype has been building up for six months in Germany....as probably 30-to-40 percent of Germans have a crappy pension going on.

3. Ended up watching Maybritt Illner public forum show last night on ZDF (public TV, channel 2). Yeah, it was 10:15 PM....fairly late. Topic?  Pension reform.

Five folks....hyping the pension chaos to the maximum.  More taxes is the only outcome that the group pushes across.

I will make the observation....if the current tax agenda comes....it probably only gives the retirees and government leadership three years of 'rest'...before the next reform, and the next new tax agenda is on display.  If you were a upcoming retiree...you'd best pack up and move to Thailand....to control your spending and enjoy your last twenty years without much tax chaos.

At the end of the show...I remarked to the German-wife....maybe the answer is to get kids (meaning age 11/12) out of school and working...paying into the pension-pot.  That set the wife off big-time...citing some 1903-law which mandates you can't hire anyone under age 13.  Then she hyped-up that you need to be educated until age 16.

4.  Reviewing German news on Iran....it'd be correct to say a dozen different 'head-of-state' figures exist, and it's impossible to draft a peace-treaty with any of them.

5. German gov't says it will start a 'food-reserve' in case of war.  Basically, they are going to have some warehouses....with canned-food....just sitting there.

6.  Finally, an observation over Trump's  talk of removing US troops from Germany.  There really wasn't that much negativity last night via the German news.  I expected more.