1. Timmy-the-whale-update: Well....they got to the North Sea drop-off point....opened the barge door, and encouraged Timmy to escape.
Timmy said 'no', and has remained in the barge.
They probably have food/supplies to linger for a week, but it doesn't appear that Timmy wants to leave his new 'friends'. Timmy likes the attention and free-food deal....'freeloader-status'?
2. Chancellor Merz, and the coalition?
Well....lot of chatter has started up....people losing confidence....CDU-CSU losing numbers....heartburn going on.
So....four possible outcomes: (1) CDU-CSU might dissolve the coalition....going minority situation....with very poor outcomes likely. (2) Putting Merz up for a vote of confidence....hoping that the members of the CDU-CSU and SPD would agree....this being very risky. (3) Following a no-confidence vote....asking the members to elect a new Chancellor....without anyone in a clear 'win' category. (4) Finally....call for a new election....with bad numbers anticipated for the SPD, and CDU-CSU.
Added to the crap? Well...people are now focused on the Saxony-Anhalt election this fall....with the AfD nearing 40-percent (likely be top winner, but unable to form a gov't). The retired President of Germany (Gauk) came out yesterday and said that the CDU (likely 2nd place) ought to take up a relationship with the Linke Party and form a gov't coalition for the state. I would imagine half of all CDU-voters in the state would say 'what-the-hell', and avoid voting for the CDU....going to the AfD and giving them 50-plus percent. His speech really didn't help matters.
There's a 'path' or two for Merz remaining, but this CDU-CSU and SPD relationship is in a spiral....mostly over tax growth and budget issues. Oddly, it's almost the same causes for the last coalition to end.
3. Trump says 5,000 US troops leaving Germany....but didn't say Army or Air Force, or installations.
4. Jet-fuel shortages look more and more likely by June.
5. 'Social-cohesion' lacking....public poll near 70-percent...in Germany.
6. If a no-confidence vote occurs, and a new federal election occurs....who do I see as CDU-CSU likely candidate? My four picks are Markus Söder (CSU), Hendrik Wüst (CDU), and Thorsten Frei (CDU) and Julia Klöckner (CDU).
If you were grading on capabilities....Söder leads. If you grade on public appeal...Julia Klöckner leads. If you grade on insider-support (Merkel-wing)....Wüst leads.
From the SPD? It won't matter....they won't get past 12-percent (both the Greens and Linke will be ahead of them).
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