Quote

 "In social networks, anyone can anonymously say what they think and how they think. I find it regrettable."

-- Chancellor Merz (Today)

To be honest....you can stop any German on the street, or in a pub, or in a train....ask them what/how they think, and they will give you two minutes of blunt-chatter, and never once will you ask their name, address or political standing.

"Tacheles reden."

That's the German term....when the gal/guy has uttered something straightforward, blunt, and often pretty harsh.  There's no sugarcoating, no beating around the bush, pure raw honesty.

Chancellor Live Sunday Night?

 Yep....9:45, ARD, Channel 1, forum show.

Chancellor Merz will be quizzed.  Basically....he needs to sell the CDU-CSU-SPD program, and hopefully....Caren Miosga (the host) doesn't ask a lot of difficult questions, or trip him up.

I'll just say it...if he trips up or does some crazy talk.....polling over the next week will drop by 1-to-2 points.

Miosga?  Well.....she's fairly bright/clever, and I'd say she won't be wasting her 20-odd questions on dopey stuff.  

Yeah...make-or-break point.

The Rumor

 Someone picked up on CDU-CSU chatter this AM....that some elements are exploring the idea of a minority-government....meaning NO coalition.

Operationally possible?  You'd have to count on some type of support by the lesser parties...meaning that AfD probably figures into half of the proposals going on.

BS?  Basically....Chancellor Merz is on a negative course, and a fair number of CDU-supporters....aren't that pleased with the SPD concepts/drafts.

If  this were to fail....you'd see a fresh new election by spring of 2027 (my belief).  For some reason....I see it crazy enough that it might last more than two years.

Is it even something that the Chancellor would support?  Unknown.

Spiral Effect

 The purpose of the CDU-CSU-SPD coalition...after the failure/collapse of the SPD-FDP-Green coalition/government....was to anchor-up the economy....keep taxation growth under control, and stabilize jobs.

So...the results over  15 months:

Aldi Süd (Grocery) is cutting 1200 jobs.  

MAN is cutting 2300 jobs.  

Bosch is eliminating 13000 jobs.  

Voith is eliminating 2500 jobs.  

VW is eliminating 50,000 jobs.  

Daimler Truck is eliminating 5000 jobs.  

It's safe to say that whatever problem that triggered the SPD-FDP-Green coalition to fail....has continued on track into 2026.  

Whatever changes were supposed to occur with Chancellor Merz, and the CDU-'magic'....has yet to show itself.

''Dry' Frankfurt Train Station?

 Starting 1 May....the Frankfurt Hauptbahnhof (main station)....booze control  goes into effect.  NO consumption of alcohol within the boundary of the station.

You can still buy beer, wine, booze....but you can't drink it or walk around with a open-container within the train-station.

Reason?  Well....mostly goes to safety aspects....too many drunks.

In my hanging-around-Frankfurt years....I probably crossed through the station a thousand-odd times.  On a Friday or Saturday night....you'd observe dozens  of drunks.  Most were happy-types...not causing trouble.  The past decade?  Between drugs and booze....you see weekly police-reports about incidents.

This turning into a magnet for cop-trouble? Yeah.  

How Long Does It Take To Shut-Down A Base/Post?

 I was at Bitburg when the closure announcement was made.   Within two to three weeks....the exit plan was laid out.  

Various issues (like your assignment process, handling of vehicles/assets, etc) took several months to settle.

But I'd say that people were already exiting the base six months after the announcement.  At the 12th month....probably 50-percent of the base was 'closed'.

By the 18th month...it was mostly done.

So when this Presidential order comes....with the end-game plan laid out....you  can expect 'closure' by the end of 2027.  

The beginning-point for local German authorities?  Well...what to do with the turned-in property?  I would expect all of 2027 to be a debate-period....finding new purposes for the property.   

There's a lot of harsh realities around this....there's a property in eastern Wiesbaden....which is in it's 6th year of debate.....with locals in disagreement with the city planners over re-use.

30 Apr 2026: Germany: 5 Things

1.  Timmy-the-whale update: He was loaded onto a barge, and is presently entering the North Sea....where they will 'dump' him.

Looking at things....I'd say it's a 10-percent chance that Timmy will return within two weeks.

Theater-like show? RTL TV last night did a 30-minute 'show' over the Timmy business.  The minute they named him....it went overboard. 

2.  The Berlin Young Socialists (JUSOS.....the youth wing of the SPD Party) says that they want to abolish marriage. They apparently will submit a draft paper to this effect at the SPD state party conference.

 What they say?  “Marriage serves the chauvinistic, capitalist nation-state as an instrument for enforcing misogynistic, queerphobic, classist, and racist policies.” 

This meeting comes up in a week. 

I read through the material.....they seem to say that civil marriage creates "patriarchal power structures" and holds back people's freedom and self-determination "through its claim to permanence." 

People already in a marriage?  They'd get a 'free' ticket to continue......new folks would just register a partnership, or deregister when 'done'.

SPD adapting this?   NO.....I'm pretty convinced that more than 75-percent of the public thinks this is a joke. 

3.  President Trump says a exit-plan for troop reduction in Germany is on the table....being worked out.

All, or just a 25-percent cut?  No one says.

My bet?  Most all units are given a 12-to-18 month exit plan....keeping one single base/post (either Stuttgart,  Wiesbaden or Ramstein).  There....a EUCOM headquarters modified unit will exist....probably a 3-star with a staff of 2k to 3k personnel.  If something occurred to require US-based forces....that staff would lead the build-up/organization.  

German gov't grumbling?  Lets be honest....the Greens, SPD and Linke Party will be rather happy of the exit.  AfD will avoid grinning....but they also will be happy.  

The areas of the big loss?  Ramstein, Spangdahlem, and local Army locations....will see a economic decline....some more....some less.

4.  Just an odd thing you notice.  Soder (the CSU Party 'boss' and Premier-President of Bavaria).....gave his talk on the Monday night forum (very impressive)....and was cleanly shaven (he's had a rough beard for 2 years).

Yeah, I'd say that as popularity goes with Merz....Soder is now the leading guy to take over if Merz exits.

5. VW profits for 1st quarter of 2026.....down by 26-percent.

What Is The Upcoming German Sugar Tax About?

 Well....the draft for the current German "sugar tax" (or rather "Zuckerabgabe"/sugar levy) ......is about a planned levy on sugary soft drinks (like Pepsi, Coke, lemonade, iced tea), set to start in 2028. 

NOTE....it's not a broad tax on all sugar or sweets.  It's strictly about sweetened beverages. 

The government approved the plan as part of a bigger health insurance reform to fight obesity/diabetes.   Yes, by the way...that BIG hole in the in statutory health funds (GKV).....that revenue would fill it.

So you wonder about the amount?

The ballpark amount (what they say)....450 million Euro per year in additional revenue. 

The catch?  Some folks believe....that as you increase the price....30 to 32 cents per can/bottle....folks will ask for sugar-free versions....and lessen use over time.

Using their figures....a 12-pack of Coke (with sugar)...would have around 3.84 Euro in sugar-tax cost.

My belief?  Consumption levels will 'survive' the first 6 months....to the level where you realize that the 40-odd sodas per month cost you 15 Euro more. If you were on the poverty-level....that's 15 Euro you can't afford pay.

So the first folks to quit?  Poverty-and-welfare class.

But I'll make this prediction.....some people will flip to sugar-free drinks avoiding the tax....but having some chemistry-wise gal....describe the formula for adding sugar to the drink....to get the right taste.  

My own taste?  I've quit most sugar drinks since 2010....drinking a rare soda on the plane or in the airport.  The non-sugar sodas?  Crap....I've tried probably 15 different types since 2010....with all of them non-tasty. 

Forsa Poll Over Merz

 Forsa, the polling folks....asked the German public to grade Chancellor Merz...with the option....are you satisfied with him...yes or no.

15-percent said 'YES'.

83-percent said 'NO'.

Yeah, on a scale of bad news....1-to-10....it's probably a '7'.  

Why so many 'no'?  I'd say it goes to three issues.  First, there's nothing much impressive that the CDU-CSU-SPD coalition has done since day one.  Second, there's a bad karma landscape left from the SPD-FDP-Green coalition...remember that Scholz-guy?  Third, his chief selling point....was that he'd get the economy back in order....well, that has yet to really happen.

All of this setting up a chaotic period from this fall....to fall of 2027....with various state elections?  Yeah.

But you can say one thing positive....there's just not anyone from the CDU-CSU group to impress people as a replacement.  You also can say....no one from the SPD, or Greens...impresses the public as a replacement character.

So this remarkably bad news piece doesn't change much of anything?  Yeah.  That's the weird part of the story.

Current and Future Tobacco Tax in Germany?

 The current tobacco excise duty (Tabaksteuer)....since 1 January 2026....isaround 12.3 cents per cigarette.   

You can figure the ad valorem tax to around 19.84 percent of the retail selling price (Kleinverkaufspreis / KVP).  

Pack of smokes.....3.91 Euro of excise duty tax.

End of the story?  NO.  Then the VAT is figured.  VAT is currently at 19-percent, and by 2027....likely to extend to 21-perccent.

So...one  pack costs around 9.50 Euro (20 smokes).

More coming?

Well....there's a draft being pushed.  A pack....after this new add-on tax occurs....will be in the 10.50 Euro range.

The real end of the story?  My humble belief is that by the end of 2028....at least another 50 Euro-cents of tax will be added.

I personally don't care (I've never smoked)....but there's around 11-million Germans (age 18 to 90).....who smoke, and a fair number are at the poverty line.  Those unhappy folks might want to one day want a opposition political stance. Since all this tax-happy stuff is CDU-SPD related.....I wonder what opposition party this group would hang upon?

Any ideas?

N-TV/RTL Political Standing Poll

 Poll released today:

AfD: 27-percent

CDU-CSU: 22 percent

SPD: 12-percent

Linke: 12-percent

Greens: 15-percent

No one else above 5-percent.

Pace of things....by October....AfD is likely at 30-percent and CDU-CSU at 20-percent.  

I'll just say...both the CDU-folks and SPD-folks...need some type of recovery and up-swing on public sentiment.  

Are Germans Peeved Over Rich-Folks?

 Last night's ARD forum show ('Arena').....was a long discussion, with a politician, and two moderators....with forty-odd people to ask questions.

The jest of this 1-hour show?  Mostly a long talk over the public frustration with 'rich-people'.

If you follow German polls over the past decade....it's roughly 80-percent of society who feel that rich Germans are a 'problem'.  There's different grumblings, and hurt feelings over this.

The general fix-it solution?  I'd say a majority (say over 50-percent) feel you need to tax rich-people more.  

I've pondered this a lot, but come to a odd conclusion....if you are going to tax more....I'd like to hear how you intend to distribute the money.  To be honest.....you are taking in forty extra billion Euro....trying to pay public workers more, or offer more money to buy statues, or offering free dance classes for people, or building forty new submarines, or making train-travel free.....isn't that smart.

I'm also of the mind that if you taxed folks more....somewhere around age 60....maybe half of this rich-population might go and leave the country....taking their wealth with them (like the way California folks left).

The odd factor?  Generally,  if you make over 70k Euro a year....in Germany....you are considered 'rich'.  That heating technician next door....that makes 80k Euro?  Yeah....he's rich.  The baker with 8 employees....making 75k Euro a year.....yeah, he's rich.  The TV moderator making 105k Euro a year?  Yeah, he's rich.

From my American prospective?  Generally, I'd say $1-mil a year is the  point of being rich.  If you were a back-up catcher for the Dodgers....minimum wage for a year is $760k.....which I don't really consider to be ultra-rich.  

It's an odd dynamic....you want to get ahead in life, and folks are closely monitoring your appearance of wealth.....so you need to kinda pretend you are marginally making it....while taking in 90k Euro a year....something I'd call welfare-rich.

Three Odd Things I Noticed While In Berlin

 First, around 10 to 12 each morning...leaving the hotel....I noticed non-German kids walking the streets....obviously NOT in school.

Two or three here.....a couple of times each morning.

They aren't worried about skipping school, or missing classes.

Second, if I compared police-saturation in Berlin....to Mainz, Wiesbaden or Frankfurt.....there's probably five times the number of police on duty in Berlin.

I'm not saying there's a lot of crime....just a lot of police to suggest you are 'safe'.

Third, we stayed in two different hotels during the week.  The first was a loft-apartment situation....living room/kitchen on ground unit, and bedroom/bath up  a stairway on the upper floor.  It was a odd stairway....with steps that were about 5 cm (1.96  inches) higher than your normal step.

By the 2nd day at this hotel....my knee was in some pain from the extra 'rise' of each step.  

I asked my wife....she noted the same issue.  

Twenty-Year Financial Plan Idea?

I tried to make sense out of this. 

Bärbel Bas....SPD Party co-chair and Germany’s Federal Minister of Labor and Social Affairs....has hyped-up a long-term (roughly 20-year) industrial/economic strategy or plan. 

To be honest....if you did ask....there's really not ever been  a strategy/plan that went past four years.

How would you write a 20-year plan?  Unknown.  It'd likely have over 500 'pieces/parts', and be broken every four to six years.

Finding a PhD expert to openly support this idea?  That might be a challenge.

Getting the public support behind this?  I seriously doubt it.

How State Elections Coming Up Influence Break-Up Of The Coalition

 There are three state elections  remaining in 2026....all  in September (Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, Berlin-City, and Sachsen-Anhalt).

If you asked on polling numbers....Sachsen-Anhalt and Mecklenburg....end up as AfD 'wins' but not enough to form a government....leading both to a number two 'winner'....building a enormously weakened coalition.

Berlin's election?   The CDU will win, but require two partners to form a coalition....making this a fairly weakened situation.

For 2027?  There are five state elections. I've looked at the numbers....they all end up as SPD or CDU 'wins'....but a growing problem is the AfD numbers in each (several approach the 15-to-20 percent level).  

You could easily have the CDU in a marginalized situation....where they can only partner with far-left 'associates' and the public sentiment goes 'south'.

If I were to predict chaos, and a early national election...it'd be in the spring of 2028...before the Bavaria/Hessen state elections (fall).

If you have three or more of the 2027 state elections where the AfD ranks near 25-percent...the Merz-era will likely conclude, and some early election would appeal to the various parties of the Bundestag.

Wild-card status?  BSW and the FDP  are both rebuilding status.....hoping for 5-plus-percent by the next federal election.

Why The German Army Expansion Is Likely To Fail

 Humble opinion:

Germans in general....bear a collective responsibility for the 'woes'/crimes of their 1930s/1940s generation.  Call  it 'inherited guilt' or fake guilt....but the system is rigged against them.

Add to this....from the 1950s  on....there's a mentality existing...."Never again war".  Taught in school and continually hyped.

There's a general culture that victory is 'bad', and can only lead to some type of guilt.

Several polls over the past year have led to numbers (50-percent and higher) of an attitude among young Germans.....serving the nation is not a good idea.

28 Apr 2026: Germany: 5 Things

 1. SPD Party came out yesterday....talking up a new cigarette tax 'bump'....going 20-percent up over present tax.

If you were a SPD voter and a smoker.....yeah, you probably are a bit peeved.

2. Last night, via ARD (Channel 1)....'Arena' came on....public forum show (live).  One guest...live audience to  ask questions.  CSU boss....Soder (Premier-President of Bavaria).

I'll just say that the two moderators attempted every angle possible to make him stumble, and he 'sliced' right through them.  Impressive 'bout'.

The one curious point dragged up......by German definitions....anyone making over 70,000 Euro a year...is considered 'RICH', and in the top category of taxation.  I'll point out....lot of heating technicians and AC-repair guys fit into this category, and they don't really see themselves as 'rich'.

3. Another Timmy-the-whale rescue operation today.  

4. Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer (known by 'AKK') is a retired German politician from the Christian Democratic Union (CDU). She was the  hand-picked replacement for Merkel, but things fell apart in the year prior to the election and she declined the 'role'.

She came up in news yesterday.....she's set to meet with several Green Party folks, and see if any middle-ground can be achieved.  Best guess?  The CDU is probably starting to think early election probability is nearing 50-percent.  They'd like to swap out partners....getting the Greens instead of the SPD.

The one issue with this idea?  AfD is nearing 30-percent (presently at 28-percent).  If you add up CDU-CSU and Green winning odds....combined, they won't reach 50-plus percent.

5. WELT put up a story on Russia....Putin has 26 defensive missile batteries around his  personal residence....NONE protecting refineries  of Russia.

ARD DC Shooter Story

 Yesterday....around noon....ARD did a full up story of the attempted shooting of Trump....featuring the close-up pic of the guy involved...blurring his face.  Note, the shoot comes from the ground level....so you can see his body and head-hair.

Well....ARD came up at 8 PM....updating the story of the shooter.  

Yet this time....they blurred up his head-hair, with the face.

Yeah, the guy is black, and with the original shot (morning)....you could tell it was a black guy.  The evening telecast...same photo....the hair was unidentifiable. 

Just odd....but Germans notice BS like that. 

You can just imagine the intellectual journalists standing there...discussing the image, and how you should not identify the ethnic situation.   

INSA Polling

 Updated polling by INSA:

AfD: 28-percent

CDU-CSU: 24-percent

SPD: 14-percent

Greens: 12-percent

Linke: 11-percent

BSW or FDP: 3-percent each.

So, I'll just say it....at the point where AfD gets to around 32-percent....while they can't form a gov't.....the CDU-CSU is forced into a leadership role....forcing them to partner (coalition) with the SPD, AND Greens.

This would put the CDU-CSU into a ultimate weakened state....where half of the priorities are left-leaning, and dilute the CDU-CSU vote.

I would offer the opinion....two years of this weakened 'state' of existence would lead to a collapse, and the AfD in the next election would be near 45-percent....massively weakening the CDU-CSU even more.

27 Apr 2026: Germany: Four Things

 1.  WDR, the public regional TV network....did a survey.  Appears that two-thirds of Germans want strict public-funding/welfare....for migrants.  They don't say 'how-much'....but that the current system....is probably screwed-up.

2.  Timmy, the whale-drama...continues on.

3.  Berlin-City agenda at work....fair amount of city population wants city-center traffic seriously cut...question would make city-center travel difficult unless you ran by bus/subway or bike.

4.  BYD (Chinese car-maker)....to offer Denza-Z....1,000 HP E-car.  It would NOT be cheap as most of their cars are.

A Week of Berlin

 I wrapped up a week of vacation in Berlin yesterday. Ten observations:

1. BER (the airport).  Not to insult anyone....but it's a medium-sized airport (at best).  From the middle of town to the airport....with a tip....it's about 70 Euro.  

2.  You can make your way around town easily, with Google-Maps....giving you the subway/tram options.  

3.  There probably 1,000-plus Curry-Wurst stands in the city.  Quality-wise?  Don't go expecting but plain regular two-star Curry-Wursts.

4.  I probably ran across ten different protests/demonstrations over a 7-day period.....cops showed up and maintained order at each one.  Figure 20-to-30 police required each time.

5.  Between drunks, druggies, and homeless folks.....there's probably 10,000 roaming the city.

6.  Kinky-weird attire?  If you wanted fifty examples per day.....Berlin is the place to see it.  Fetish attire to the extreme?  Oh yeah.

7.  I felt 'safe' for the whole seven days.  Yeah, there were beggars on the subway system....but they aren't that pushy.

8.  'Wind-tunnels' to the extreme?  With the taller buildings around.....you notice this a good bit.

9.  The cat-temple coffee house....is an interesting place....where they were coffee, and cats roam the place....getting petted.  Worth seeing.

10.  For the first couple of days....I stayed in a loft-situation (two-floor room)....with a stairway.  The stairs to the bed-area....around two inches taller than a normal stairway step.  Oddly, your knees start to have issues in making the odd climb.  Nice hotel....except for this factor.  

It's Complicated

I've checked into a hotel in Berlin...I'll avoid the name...today.

So...the desk gal accompanied us (me and the wife)....over to the room.  Yeah, its a 425 euro a night deal.

I'll just say...theres like 50 different technical features, and in 2 minutes...i believe it was a mistake.

The AC unit...the tv...16 different LED lights, the electric windows...electric blinds...and so on.

I'm into tech crap...but i needed the orientation gal to give a 12 minute lecture...not the 2 minute there-you-go speech.

Falklands BS

 AM....I reviewed this UK-Argentia chatter.  Basically,  Trump made the comment that the Falkland Islands might be at a point of shifting to Argentina. 

My observations? 

First, the UK is awful damn weak militarily.....suggesting some type of reaction force...is a joke.

Then, I'm wondering how the whole of the UK see this?  Maybe 20 to 40 percent don't care?

Without US support?  Yeah, and they've been heading this way for a few years.

So...this might be kinda interesting. 

E20 Fuel?

Well, yeah....EU chatter has started up...they'd like to introduce a fuel above E10.

Where the bio product would come from?  I imagine sugar beets.

How much analysis has been done?  Well...no one says much.

Wouldn't shock me if they start taking E50 fuel.

3 Berlin Travel Tips

 1.  Use Google maps as much as possible...especially for subway or tram travel. 

2. The are probably 250 museums in the Greater-Berlin area....but 90 percent are crap.

3.  Homeless guys are friendly about it....seeing you are about to finish a beer...they will ask for the bottle for return value. 

How Bavarian King Ludwig II Died (My Belief)

 On the 13th of June....1886....King Ludwig II (age 40) of Bavaria died in a remarkable way. He was found drown in the shallowLake Starnberg area....with his psychiatrist, Dr. Bernhard von Gudden. 

What we can say....a week or two prior....he was 'deposed' (impeached in a way)....dumped-out of the king-job....over alleged insanity due to excessive spending on palaces like Neuschwanstein.

On the books....it was ruled suicide.  Oddly, they (the local doctors) did a autopsy and found NO water in his lungs.

The final hours 'story'?  At some point around 6 PM....on 13 June 1886....the king and his doctor....went for a walk along Lake Starnberg near Berg Castle.  Bodies are recovered 'later'.

Autopsy of the doctor?  Well...that's an odd thing.  He had injuries to the head (like he got 'whacked').  Walking cane? No one says that. But there's a 2nd injury....strangulation (chocked).

Odd factor?  Well....this entire area (in the water).....is mostly knee-deep to waist-deep. 

Conspiracy thriller?  Yeah.

Was he crazy?  I've read two books on the guy and would readily agree....he had zero grasp of spending or living a fragile lifestyle.

Finding an acceptable ending....for the king and doctor?  No.  I can believe that the king whacked the doctor on the trail....knocking him into the lake, and then feeling sorry for the doctor....jumping in and the doctor chocks the King....with both of them dying in knee-deep water (the doctor more-so dead from a concussion).

The value of the King today?  Well....there's tons of money off tourism....due to the  King's crazy nature of building castles.

Old German Reservists?

My German wife started a conversation over this impending German rule...allowing recruitment of reservists up to age 70.

Would I join (age 67 today)?  I pondered this.

First, boot-camp would to be non-rigorous....no push ups.  

Second,  I'd like a good mattress...no 1970s cot.

Third, this time around....I'd like to be tank guy...maybe even a driver.

Fourth, absolutely no marching.

Fifth, camping out for a weekend is no problem....but no 14 day long exercises.

Sixth, I'd prefer no indoctrination BS.  Don't spend six hours on a 8 minute subject. Shoot, reload...repeat.

Finally....don't bother issuing fancy parade uniforms...I'm  a weekend warrior or war guy, period.

Fuel Chatter

Around 1 May....German oil purchases from Kazakhstan will halt...due to Putin.

What it amounts to?  Seventeen percent of jet fuel, gas and diesel.

Control by Russia?  The pipe is theirs.

What the German say?  They have about 3 weeks of existing fuel around, and 90 days of a oil reserve.

End?  It's possible that Venezuela and the US step in, and deliver oil....but it'd be June before you start to see evidence. 

I'll just say it...May and June might be a bit chaotic.   Also, you wonder about fuel for the US army and requirements for Ramstein  and Spang.

The Sex Bill

I noted this AM....the German Green Party has offered up a draft bill....more or less....'no-means-no'.  If passed...the parties upon mee...have to agree on sex, or there is no sex.

I pondered over this.

It would seem to me...there has to be paperwork involved...a official form...2 pages.  First, it has to specify the 2, or 3, or4 individuals involved.

Then it'd have specify time involved....like a 6 minute quickie, a 16 minute regular,  or a 40 minute epic saga.

Then you'd have specify oral, regular, anal, bondage, or weird stuff.

It ought to be an App...so the government has a copy.

The AfD folks?  They'd probably be against it...saying too much information. 

The chief problem i see....data will start to show over age forty are mostly quickie folks.

Two Things

First, BKA...the federal police....says around 75 ISIS fighters are figured to be in Germany...hiding.  The war ended, and they quietly came back to where they were originally.  The law says...you can't come back...without jail time.

Working?  Well...I wonder about that. Maybe you have a uncle who let's you work...paying you under the table.

A threat?  After you arrived in Syria and realized this war BS was crap....your options were limited.  I think most would prefer to forget the experience. 

Second thing....the SPD party added a draft proposal...if you are on welfare...you are eligible for the 1k Euro tax free bonus.  Who would be paying you this?  They don't say...but it won't be the state or federal apparatus. 

My wife says some welfare folks have part time work...that maybe their boss would rig up extra pay....on top of the table.

Yeah, About That Tax-Free Bonus

 The one thing I've noticed over the past week...lot of Germans went to their bosses, and asked about this 1,000 Euro tax-free 'bonus' deal that the Chancellor  worked up between the CDU-CSU and SPD. The vast majority of bosses came back, and said the bonus from them is not going to happen....mostly because of the  economic woes going on.

Needless to say....whoever dreamed up this tax-free bonus concept....arranged for probably 75-percent-or-more of Germans to be fairly negative of the work-climate. 

I don't think they really understood things well enough....on how you can screw up morale within a company.

Various comments on social  media are laying there....openly harsh and critical....of the companies themselves, and the Merz coalition.

The other odd thing?  Well....public workers (city/state)....they kinda  want  the deal, and there's virtually no villeage/city with ample cash to hand out 1,000 Euro per employee.   

Just kinda funny how they met and created a four-star mess out of nothing.

Bundestag Walk

Spent 3 hours on Berlin Bundestag walk today...some advice:

1. Make your reservation 60 days out.

2. Approach from the US embassy side.

3. Be at the visitor center 20 min prior to your time.

4. An elevator will take you to the dome, however...there is a 500 ft circular walk to the top. If you aren't physically in good shape....don't go.

5. No toilet around. 

6. Hydrate prior to arrival.

7. Part of the walk is outdoors....dress appropriately. 

8. If you intend to walk from the bahnhof...give yourself 40 min.

Former CDU Boss - Accident

 Armin Laschet, chancellor candidate from 4 years ago for the CDU....had a weekend accident with a E-scotter...breaking his shoulder.

I brought this up with wife...she says this precisely why I can't have one.

Five Humble Thoughts

 1.  I'm one of those folks who do believe that German public TV should exist, and  folks should pay 'something' (maybe not 18-Euro a month).

Reasoning?  AI basically says that between 1 and 3 percent of society is intellectual, and since commercial TV can't give them what they desire....public TV (like ARD or ZDF) fills the gap.

The other 97-percent probably aren't happy with my suggestion....but they get tens of billions from the intellectual political folks to cover the 18-Euro a month issue.

2.  Back on Tuesday evening of last week....ZDF (public TV, Channel 2) ran a 45-min critical piece of Jeffrey Epstein.

My wife (German in nature) watched intently....I gave 20-percent of my attention.  She's absolutely convinced of his evil/demonic ways.  

She asked my thoughts....I admitted over the past five years....I'd put 200-plus hours into the Epstein 'saga'.  What she got for 45 minutes....was basically 1-percent of the whole story.  I told her Jeffrey was demonic....1,000-times over.

Yeah, I think she was freaked-out.

3. A week now after the Hungary's  election...Magyar is convincing a lot of folks....not much is set to change.

Shocker?  

4.  Last week....I read some German social commentary (German gal, 20s, Hamburg)....who basically said: "99-percent of German women here are women by gender, but male by mannerisms, behavior, dress sense, and mindset."

I didn't say much of anything.  In my mind, I thought....half of these women are probably trans, and I shouldn't stare.  

Bigger things than this to worry about.

5.  UFOs could come down and land in Frankfurt....walk around the river area for six hours, and I suspect 90-percent of German society would still be skeptical that aliens exist.

Cellphone Chatter

Starting in 2027....by EU mandate....smartphones sold in the EU will be required to have user-replaceable batteries designed for greater durability and more charging cycles. 

More?  Manufacturers must also ensure spare parts and repair manuals for at least 10 years after a model is released

My take? Most companies have a 2 year cycle....expecting you to upgrade.  If the EU push occurs....prices will go 30 to 50 percent higher.  Buying outside of the EU?  I'd bet some do.

Just Curious

Chancellor Merz came up yesterday saying...the normal pension is built to give you basic retirement income...nothing more than that.  You probably shouldn't plan on retirement trips to Thailand or expensive crap.

My German wife noted this 30 years ago, and started putting extra toward a private investment deal.

Germans peeved?  I'd say 30 percent...mostly those in the age 30 to 40 group...are unhappy over the chatter.

Berlin DDR Museum Today

Spent 3 hours walking through the place today.   Some advice...spend the hour prior hydrating...no safe. There's several watering holes about a block away.  Also....no resting spots much inside.   Put 2 to 3 hours on the interior walk.  Vast amount of detail on old East Germany.

Did Russia Indicate Germany Might Have A Problem In Selling Ukraine Drones?

 Well...yeah, back on the 15th....there was a pretty blunt statement said...basically suggesting Germany might be targeted.

My humble view?  There's probably a dozen German companies making military-style drones, and selling them.  They might be targeted in some fashion.

Scaring the crap out of the population? Yeah....a bomb or two...leading back to Russia would get noticed real quick.

Reservists

National level of German Army talking about recruiting reservists up to age 70.

I sat and pondered over the deal...maybe if this were bootcamp-lite....around age 60....getting some 300 Euro as a extra pension deal...it'd be worth considering. But out of a thousand Grtmans over age 50...I doubt if you'd find ten willing to sign up.

Welfare Landscape

 This past week....Focus went out and asked the German gov't....just how many folks are on 'citizen's income'....welfare.

So the number comes to  5.2-million....out of 84-million.

But they asked....how many are non-German.  It comes to around 47-percent....mostly to Iraqis, Syrians and Ukrainians.  

The magic number.... 21.7-billion Euro....to non-Germans.

Whether the Chancellor and the coalition really grasp this....they don't really have 20-odd billion Euro to throw around.

This providing more voter conflict?  Probably so.  

Good EU Demographics News

 The EU has been surveying demographic data, and come to a conclusion.

Good news....EU-wide population is projected to collapse by 50-plus million by 2100.

Birth-rate collapse.

The top leadership didn't say much.  I'm guessing they are huddled up and talking about some regulation....forcing you in some fashion to have more kids.  

My three suggestions?

1.  Put a 25-Euro tax on individual condoms or birth-control....unless you have already two kids.

2.  Have some type of monthly pay deal for women....say 750 Euro 'pay' per month to have kids.

3.  Start a science project to enable men to have kids, without the women involved.

The news that they didn't discuss?  Well...what happens by 2200?  Another 175-million drop in population?

(Note, I can be sarcastic at times)

Labor Productivity Chatter

 Scale of relationship between US and Germany....on labor productivity....from unification day....to now.

They were at one time...probably for three decades....even.  Then by 2000....the change started.

Over-regulation is the big-factor?  I think at the top level of company executives for Germany....probably 99-percent agree.

The odd factor?  Lets be honest....the Bush, Obama, Trump-1 era, and Biden....the US kept adding regulations as well....it's just that Germany doubled down on top of what the US was doing.

The Five Polling Organizations

 Germany has five organizations that I give a thumbs up to....being reliable on polls: INSA, YouGov, FG Wahlen, Forsa, and Allensbach.

This AM....lot of  chatter over weekend polling results.  Three of the five show AfD two to three points ahead of the CDU-CSU.  Allensbach shows CDU-CSU one point ahead  of the AfD.

SPD numbers on all three....crap (down in the 12-point range).

So I'll make three observations:

1.  Lefty-voters are split three ways: Linke, SPD, and Greens.  To a much lesser degree...even BSW (4-points) is pulling lefty-voters.

2.   Merz and his CDU-CSU crew....are marginally delivering any legislation that the public appreciates.

3.  For roughly three years after Covid ended as a big-deal....the SPD-Green-FDP  coalition marginally delivered, and the economy was simply 'floating'....the public felt Merz and the crew could deliver.  So here we are 16 months into the Merz era, and no real change.  

So I'll just say it....nothing about AfD policy really changes the economic trends.  The only slight suggestion is that if they did pursue a exit-policy on migrants....out of the 47-percent of non-Germans  on the state-welfare program....maybe half of them would be cut off the social-welfare fund. Beyond that...what Germans are seeking....AfD can't really provide that kind of change.

19 Apr 2026: Germany: Three Things

 1.  Emergency meeting  for tomorrow (Monday).....Federal Economics Minister Katherina Reiche....Federal Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil.

Meeting players?  German airlines, suppliers, and associations.

Concern?  Jet-fuel problems within four to six weeks.

Some people discussing  worst case  scenario.....lot of mid-May flights probably to be curtailed.

2. Josie Rath....wrote an interesting summary for WELT....concerning how things in Germany are now be politicized to a maximum degree.  Worth a read.

From hobbies, to clothing styles....there's now  a creation machine to make something 'rightist' or 'leftish'.

I have to admit...if you walked around Germany in the 1990s....there was nothing like this in existence.  Past ten to fifteen years....it's created out of thin air.  It feels like a on-going 24-hour lecture.

3.  The wife and I ended up at the Frankfurt Flughafen last night....early turn-in of bags (24 hours prior to the flight).  

I was pretty shocked...20 min drive over....easy park (4 Euro)....walked in....NO line....got the boarding pass after swiping my passport....bag 'tag' pumped out....put the bags through the system....took a total of 20 min to walk and  accomplish the process.  At 7 PM....weren't that many people in the airport.

Saved about an hour if I'd waited till this afternoon to drag the bags over.

Will be in Berlin for a couple of days (if you don't see updates, that's the reason). 

EU Jet Fuel Chatter

 Late yesterday....EU politicians started up a talk....to essentially trim back on jet-fuel  purchases from the Middle East,  and ramp up more purchase situations from the US.

Amount?  They are talking of a 75-percent cut on Mid-East fuel contracts.

Where this leads onto?  I'd suggest a 2026 trend where US oil companies benefit greatly.  Long-term?  They will eventually go back to the old trend....but I'd  suggest that the US companies for the next 12-to-18 months benefit.

This shortage chatter?  There might be a 30-to-60 day period where some flights are curtailed....until the supply gets back to a norm.

EU Age App?

If you weren't aware....the EU has some type of regulation they will push....requiring everyone to have a Age Verification app on their cellphone, computer, or tab.

It'll verify in some fashion....your age (from federal data they collect already).

So some folks you'd associate with hacking....got to test it this week.

Yeah....it was hacked with little to no effort.

From what I see....when you set it up, the app asks you to create a PIN. 

This PIN isn't actually tied to the identity data it's supposed to protect. 

So the hacker can delete a couple of entries from a file on the phone/tab....restart the app....create a new PIN, and the app happily hands over the original user's verified identity credentials. 

There's other issues, but just this alone....makes it a problem.

I'm not saying this is the end of the idea....but whoever developed it....probably has another six months of development....before they can force it upon people.

Just Odd

 ZDF, German public TV...Channel 2.....based out of Mainz....is apparently looking for young adults for a new documentary piece....who have some type of  strained relationship....with their parents, because they are voting for AfD.

I guess in this understanding.....if you were CDU-associated, but your parents were Linke or Green Party....you need not apply.

From what I see on social media....it got a lot of criticism....for searching for such  participants.

The fact that a fair amount of the 'support' for AfD comes from the 18-to-30 year-olds?  Well...it's best not to bring up this factor.

If I were guessing....they will find forty-odd participants....but at least five of them will be 'faking-it'.  

IEA Chatter

 I sat in the last hour....reviewing a AM interview....the head of the International Energy Agency (IEA), Fatih Birol, gave a talk...to say....Europe still has enough jet fuel for "maybe six weeks or so".

BS? Well....it's mixed.

Germany for example....has yet to turn on its 90-day oil reserve supply.  Tankers on their way to Germany to deliver?  Yeah....in about 12 days....the last oil tanker will unload....then a two to four week supply of fuel will exist.  As that concludes....then the oil reserve stock will kick on.

Other countries? I'd say about 90-percent of Europe is in a similar situation.

So what will happen?  It's not really Europe in a 'pain'.....it's destinations that will worry folks. Going to India or Asia....you probably will see cancellations in four to six weeks.   Japan?  They've gotten US oil tankers arranged, and they might not have any problems.

The fact that 20-million Germans have some kind of airline reservation for spring, summer and fall at risk?  Yeah.  Adding to the risk...you might fly into Turkey with zero risk, and wake up two weeks later....where your airport to leave for home....has a fuel shortage.

Massive oil tanker trail  going from South Africa toward the US Gulf and Venezuela?  Yeah....I've seen the maps....probably well over 200 tankers making a path.

16 April 2026: Germany: 5 Things

 1.  New national poll done for German public opinion (if an election were today)....CDU-CSU at 23-percent (2nd place, falling 3 points), with AfD  leading at 27-percent.

Both FDP and BSW moving up a notch, to 4-percent each.  SPD lingering at 13-percent. Greens: 14-percent.  Linke at 10-percent.

You add CDU-CSU and SPD numbers up....comes to 36-percent of public polling (pretty crappy).  

2. Tax-Payers Association...heavy negative criticism of the CDU-CSU-SPD 1,000 Euro bonus-tax-free deal.  

3.  Starting in summer of 2027...new EU rule.....10,000 Euro in cash is max for a cash situation (if you buying something).  You have to electronically 'send' the money if over 10k. New German rule  for 2027.....if you are putting  down 3,000 Euro or more....you need to provide an ID for the transaction, and the data has to be kept by the store.  

4. Almost 1.9 million German over the age of 65....are currently employed and working.  

5.  Stern-TV (the show) from RTL-network last night....featured a 20-odd minute update of 'Timmy' (the sickly whale on the German coast).  They must have interviewed at least a dozen animal experts...giving each their humble thoughts on Timmy's illness or likely approaching death.

Probably 10-percent of German society are closely following the whales declining health.

Are There Three Factions Of Iranian Leadership?

If it hasn't been made clear.....lacking legit political parties.....Iran is basically run by three groups.

Hardline crew.....Islamic Republic....the absolute and consumed conservatives. (osulgarayan).  

This group wants strict ideological loyalty to velayat-e faqih (guardianship of the jurist).  Yes, they are anti-West, and their power leans toward the Supreme Leader, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). 

Then there's the reformists and moderates (the eslahtalaban).  This group wants civil liberties, economic changes, stable currency, survival of the banking structure, and mostly a moderate relationship with the west.  

Most of the general public wants this group to 'win'.

Finally....the third group....the Supreme Leader and his Mullah-crew.  If you haven't understood this....this group plays off both group number one and number two.

The Mullahs and hardline folks....having no understanding of the oil business, it's relationship to the economy?  Well....that's about 99-percent of the current crisis.

Four Humble Thoughts

 1.  From Hungary....Orban (on his way out) and Magyar (on his way in)....had connections between the two for almost two decades. They were never 'enemies'.

If you ask me....based on commentary by Magyar....the election almost seems like a rigged-up deal where you simply exchanged red-pill-one with red-pill-two...getting the same result,  but feeling good that some pro-EU guy is there.  Three months down the line....you (the Hungarian-voter) will wake up from this dream, and realize Magyar is very much identical to Orban (except 70 pounds lighter).

2. The beginning of the end for the CDU-CSU-SPD coalition?  It'll be the day that a survey is done and reveals that half of German society wants the Scholz coalition back (SPD-Green-FDP).

3.  I suspect if you sat down with most Germans and asked them to rank the tempo-limit (bringing the autobahn speed down to 120/130 kph), and among problems to 'FIX'....it won't be even in the top 700 issues.  Potholes....might even rank above tempo limit.

4.  Sometimes....late at night....I'm channel-flipping for German TV options, and  Frau W's show is on.

Basically, she's a fortune-teller....with cards, and Germans call in....asking if they should do something really 'stupid'.  Live-show....you (the caller) are paying something like 99-cents (per minute), and she lays out these cards to tell you the best option to take.

I'll typically watch for ten minutes....thinking 'Ingrid' (the caller) ought to dump the boyfriend, or trade in the 'junker', or tell-off the boss, or just seek better advice.

Lately, I've had this feeling that Chancellor Merz should call, and seek advice.

Faking It

I sat and read through a BBC piece of investigative journalism.   So....they were told....there's some Brit lawyers....helping migrants building a case to stay in the UK...by pretending to be gay.

I get the feeling that they thought....this was mostly made-up.  But in the end....as they talked to the migrants....yeah, it was a true statement...legal advisers come in....lay out the 'rules' of being gay, and migrant acts in this way.

Last year...there was a incident in Germany....where the Auslander-office (folks that handle migrants in Germany)....asked about the amount of 'gayness' that the guy had (nationality was not given), and the migrant got all hyped-up/angry about the suggestion that he was gay.

How many fake gays exist in the UK?  Unknown.  I doubt if anyone really wants to collect or analyze such data.

Bad ethical decision by the lawyers? Well.....they just want the applicant to get a visa....they don't care how it occurs.

The odd part?  Well....some Brit gay guy sat down and probably wrote the text and  behavior  thing....how to fake the gayness.  Maybe he didn't really grasp how far this would  go.

Is There A Pending Fuel Problem For Germany?

 I spent an hour yesterday reading over this suggestion.

First, there's roughly a 90-day reserve sitting there...yet to be turned  on.

Second, there are several oil freighters heading toward Germany....figure their arrival in three weeks. Once they dock....unless things rapidly change in the  Gulf region....there's a brewing problem (you can assess it to develop around the end of September).

But on the positive side?  Well...new oil-tanker traffic is heading toward Venezuela and the US Gulf region. 

The idea of expanding bio fuels (E10) to maybe E20?  I've seen that idea pitched.

So I'm not really believing there's much of a shortage of fuel for Germany.  Now....if the stress-folks at the SPD-Green agenda can make you believe in a shortage....getting you hyped-up to buy a E-car....well....that's different.

15 Apr 2026: Germany: 10 Things

 1.  RTL poll: AfD at 26-percent.  CDU-CSU falls 2 points to 24 percent.

Linke at 11-percent.  Greens at 15-percent.  SPD at 12-percent.  FDP lingering at 4-percent.

FDP leadership change?  There's talk,  and a new guy likely to be into position.  My guess....it'll be enough to bring  FDP by the end of 2026....up to 7-percent,  but the votes are going to come from the CDU-CSU landscape.

2.  INSA did a poll on 'trust'....with the public asked about the Chancellor (Merz)....he rates near 20-percent.

3.  In case you were wondering....that 'ALL' gas stations have the same pricing on fuel...NO.

I have a fuel App and over the Wiesbaden area....there's probably a 4-cent difference  between the 30-odd stations around the city for E-10 fuel.  The no-name shops are definitely at the lower end of the pricing.

4.  Ban coming for robo-mowers and night-time mowing....by German federal law?

Well...there's a lot of talk by the animal rights people...suggesting it's not right.  Personally, if you make the case for no-night-time mowing mowing.....the same save-the-animals logic should exist for day-time mowing as well.

In the 12-plus years I've mowed this German property yard....on one single occasion....I had a injured bird of some type.  I halted mowing for the day, and he was gone by the next.

5. Forsa/RTL-TV gave a survey....who do you trust (party-wise)?

CDU-CSU: 15-percent.  AfD at 14-percent.   SPD at 4-percent.

Top winner?  NO PARTY at 52-percent.

I sat and pondered this for 20 minutes....it's a weird question, and unusual 'winner'.   It means that the public is losing confidence with the system to work.  Who would blame?  Mostly the parties...but ARD/ZDF (public TV) has done a good bit to encourage folks to have faith......then delivered crushing 'blows' to the achievements actually delivered.  

6. At this past weekend's CDU-CSU-SPD meeting....odd topic came up.  CDU wants to abolish May-Day (federal holiday in Germany).  SPD basically basically 'hell-no'.

I personally think that Merz said it as a 'joke', to get SPD folks hyped-up and grumbling.

7. Will public workers (city/state employees) get the 1,000 Euro 'bonus' deal (tax-free)?  

Well....a CDU mayor indicated in pretty strong language...NO.  

There's going to be a lot of grumbling by the end of 2026 about this non-delivery of a bonus (tax-free). 

8.  Late yesterday....rumor-chatter started up that the EU intends to lower electrical prices across the 'land'.  How?  It wasn't really laid out.  I would assume they'd mandate some tax lowering dynamic. 

On the books....there are two 'taxes': VAT (sales tax) at 19-percent, and a Stromsteuer (2-cents per kWh).

However, there are four 'fees' also built into the system: Konzessionsabgabe (concession levy to municipalities): around 1.32–2.39 Euro cents/kWh. Then there is KWKG-Umlage (Combined Heat & Power levy): 0.446 cents/kWh....which supports efficient CHP plants. Then there's Aufschlag für besondere Netznutzung (§ 19 StromNEV): 1.559 cents/kWh....a special grid-usage surcharge.  Finally, there's Offshore-Netzumlage (offshore grid levy): 0.94 cents/kWh....which covers offshore wind connection costs.

Looking at this 'mess'....the EU must be bluffing folks.  If they inserted a 'cut' into any part of the grid cost....the German system would freak out because of lack of cash-flow to their pet-projects.

9.  DFB....the German soccer league....is starting up their own TV 'channel' (streaming-video)....5.99 Euro a month.

If you weren't getting enough soccer via  commercial TV or public TV....well, there's this. 

10.  The German term 'Milchmädchenrechnung' came up for me yesterday.

I spent about 15 minutes trying to grasp the term.

Translation?  Milk-Maid's calculation.

So....about 300 years ago...in Switzerland...in some fictional book....the writer wrote a paragraph that involved a rather naive gal, who had a side-business of some type, and had a profit plan that seemed to make sense on paper, but when it was applied....it failed.  Reasoning?  The young lady really didn't understand the complexity of commerce and business.

Some German yesterday uttered this...referring to the CDU-CSU-SPD folks.  

Three Odd Things I Noted

 1. Over the past year or two...if you were a resident of Berlin (the city)....you probably noticed increased trash on the street, and around the parks.

This AM...the CDU-led  city gov't came up and said: Berlin will start to reward tourists in the future....if they pick-up trash. You'd get vouchers.

They are also hiring  trrash  investigators....to walk the streets and find dumped-crap....putting into effect...higher fines.

I paused over this.  If I had 7 days off, and settled for a Berlin trip...I'm NOT about to waste one day of it...picking up trash.  My wife (being German) will go ballistic if I even suggest a day on collecting trash.

2  Just a lot of chatter over the past week or  two....Germans remembering 1973.....when the gas crisis hit Germany, and autobahns on weekends were deserted.

The odds of this in  April or May...near zero.

Odds in July or August? I'd say we are approaching a 50-percent point for a 1973-type crisis level.

3.  So talk of change has started to occur with German health insurance.

If you didn't know....there's around 90-plus health plans in existence.

The CDU has started a talk....to  dissolve the bulk of these....with the goal  being in the end....ten.

Grumbling?  Oh yeah....fair amount of negative talk has started up.

A change requiring the SPD to agree?  Yes....and they might not be that agreeable.

Were they that different?  Some were regional....some had limited situations for rehab (physical or drug or alcohol)....some required weight loss for knee or hip operations.

The chief problem....cost is escalating, and the state/federal apparatus....needs some tool to curtail rising costs.

Humble Thoughts Over Iran

 Four observations:

1.  Production-wise, they still drill and pump oil....HOWEVER, it gets to a depot area near the coast, and the tanks are rapidly filling, with almost nothing getting loaded on oil-tankers.

From my reading yesterday....I asked Grok (AI)...how much time was left before the tanks are all full....roughly 13 days was the answer.

So at the end of April...drilling stops.

Revenue from oil?   ZERO for the most part.

Iran had nothing much to make income off of.....so there's a cash-flow issue brewing.

2. Hyper-inflation on food?  Feb numbers suggest 47-percent.

3.  Jet-fuel rationing going on?  Yeah....mostly from the Gulf region is where this commentary comes from.

4.  Airport strikes going on...workers aren't showing up.  Some indications that only gov't ordered flights now operating.

Quiet-Quitting Chatter

  I noted yesterday.....some German using in social media.....the term 'quiet quitting'.

The meaning?  It's usually when people have no more interest in their profession...their job, or their political position.

These are people who screw up  constantly....make routine daily mistakes...their good/bad decision level is 50-50....seem lacking in motivation, and they can't seem to be truly reliable.

The  term is usually for commercial operations....this guy meant it for the CDU-CSU-SPD folks.

I'm not saying  he's right, or wrong.....just that you normally meant it to be used for sports teams, or commercial work (maybe for charity work too).

My worry (if I were a German)....if a majority of German voters believe in this concept, and see the coalition as 'quiet quitting'.....they might get the idea that voting AfD resolves this issue.

14 Apr 2026: Germany: 5 Things

 1.  The logistics industry of Germany...is heavy on criticism that the 'help' that the gov't is going to provide (17-cents off the energy tax for two months)....does not start until 1 May.  The 'stall' as some indicate....will push some trucking companies toward bankruptcy.

They may have a point, but the current gov't is not really built to handle problems such as this gas price crisis.  Once you have twenty or thirty trucking companies fail....then they will convene a new crisis team, and spend a weekend talking over a new problem and design more regulations to fit a situation.

2.  My feelings over the Hungary election?

Orbin out....Magyar in.....right-wing-XL guy out....right-wing-lite guy in.

If you look at the new parliament.....only three parties got seats....far-right-extreme, far-right-XL....and far-right-moderate.

All this tough anti-Russia talk....probably forgotten in six months.  There might be a couple of Russian  journalists asked to leave...but beyond, mostly fake chatter.

The one issue with Magyar?  He's prone to stupid mistakes (that past cocaine issue, the dog episode, and his ex-wife's stories).  If you asked me on betting odds....I'd say within two years.....his party has to force him to exit.

3.  BASF CEO says for the remainder of 2026....financial chaos for Germany....mostly over Iran situation.   

4.  Focus says:  Putin's mega-villa....now protected by 27 different air defense systems.  

5. WELT poll: Majority of Germans now support a temp speed limit on autobahns....120 kph.  Note: they used the term 'temporary'.  

My belief....within two months, some text will exist for a new law....but will be worded to be a two-year period.   During that period....they will collect data to show lesser accidents (at least on autobahns), and work to convince people to keep the limit.

Cash Bucket

 In case you were wondering....I asked Grok (AI)....how much money does Germany (the nation) ship out...past the EU....as 'gift-money' for groups/nations.

Roughly 25-billion Euro aa year.

This topic has come up....as the German  poverty-class has begun to ask questions.  These are the type that neither the CDU or SPD....can answer.

Can 1,400 Euro A Month Pension Money Work?

 Well....this 1,400 number gets thrown around a good bit.  It's what a average German apprentice kid....entering around age 16....will get around age 67.  Figure baker, plumber, heating tech, etc.

Germans talk about this...in a critical way.

If you were smart...around age 30, and invested a bit....working extra hours....you might achieve a investment fund to additionally supplement your 1,400 Euro....with anything from 300 Euro to 1,000 Euro.

Lot of differing numbers, but around 50-to-62 percent supplement 'something' toward the pension situation.

So roughly 40-percent of society do nothing. 

Can you survive purely off 1,400 Euro?   If you resize your living situation...living in a more rural area....yeah.  You'd probably dump the car....drink less booze....and avoid vacations.

If you were marginally paid over the forty-odd year period, and only making 900-Euro a month?  You'd be screwed, and probably getting some welfare funding.

End-point?  Well....you see this a good bit....where a German reaches age 50, and suddenly realizes the reality...shaking their head.

Explaining The Gas Tax 'Relief'

 As of 9 AM today, the 'relief' for German gas prices has been released.

If you didn't know....there are two taxes applied to German gas prices. One is the VAT/sales tax, and the other is the energy tax.

The relief?  From the energy tax (NOT the VAT)....17-Euro-Cents will be cut....for two months. 

So if you bought a liter yesterday for 2.10 Euro....then the new price would be1.93 Euro (still hefty....about 20-cents above the norm).  

What happens in six-to-eight weeks?  Well...if the 'war' is still screwing up the pricing....more talks will occur, and I would imagine it'll go for a second two-month period.

Still to be grumbling?  Oh yeah.  Who will get the blame for the grumbling? Mostly Merz, the CDU, and the SPD.

Why Can't German Coalitions 'Work'?

 Wel....for a long time (after the war)....you had three basic parties....left-of-center SPD, the right-of-center CDU-CSU, and the FDP (usually anti-tax and cut budget folks).  The FDP served to be the 'partner'....getting a cabinet post or two, and forcing compromises.

As the Green Party arrived....the SPD lost some voters, and started to be a partner.  As the Linke Party arrived....more SPD voters switched.

For about 20 years....the SPD and CDU-CSU folks have generally lost voters...to the point that combined....they can't get 50-percent of the seats to hold a coalition.

From 2025....the election results were enough....that the CDU-CSU invited the SPD in for talks. To get a partnership....you end diluting your 'promises' and end up as much a neutral organization....which your voters shake their heads and  wonder why they really need to vote.

 

Odd Deal

 Announced this AM....German gov't will offer a 'deal'.

Your company can offer you a 1,000 Euro bonus....tax-free. Anything over the 1,000 Euro....has taxes attached.

So my question....out of a hundred average companies in Germany...how many will offer the 'deal'? Twenty?  Fifty?

Some will be smart about this....deducting a 1,000 Euro from your check over 12 months, and presenting it to you....as a 'gift'...meaning tax-free status.

I would not be complaining but I doubt if you get more than forty-percent of Germany's work-force getting the deal unless they sneak it to you in some fashion (cutting the monthly check).

13 Apr 2026: Germany: 4 Things

 1.  From WELT over the weekend: Non-German suspects in the state of Bavaria for crimes in general....show an approximately fourfold higher rate of involvement in violent crimes compared to Germans. Syrian suspect?  Eleven times higher than a German.  Afghan?  Fourteen times higher.

2.  Talks all weekend by the Merz coalition...announcement to occur this AM about the results to solve the energy crisis.

3.   Tatort last night (the German crime show on ARD (channel 1))...featured a German comedian acting as the chief criminal suspect.  

Well....it just felt more like a comedy than a murder-show.

4.  German gov't discussing less-pay....when you are sick (so you would not get 100-percent compensation).  

Most Germans probably have five or six sick-days over an entire year, and  won't grumble  much over this.  However, if you were the gal/guy who took 20 to 30 days a year for sick leave.....yeah, you won't be happy.

Travel Commentary

 German passenger trains used to be 'classic' travel situations.

You'd board....on time...leave on time, and sit in a respectful cabin (6 seats).

The windows opened (if you needed fresh air).  Yeah, there was no  AC  unit.

A guy would roll a cart around later...selling you a beer, wine or Coke.

Sound-proofed?  Well...moderately.

Somewhere in the 1990s....the ultra-modern crap came, and 'classic' got dumped.

The biggest whine?  Mostly over the cabin being 'cornered' by older ladies who in December...had the heat up around 32C in the cabin. 

How Would A Excess Profits Tax Work?

 Once established....you'd  have a agency/group  to monitor the companies involved, and spend hours reaching a conclusion that something-is-not-right-but-you-can't-say-what.

So after 2,000 man-hours of audits....you conclude they must be hiding data, and there's just too much profit.  You get 'Timmy' (your numbers guys) to invent a maximum profit level....then start taxing.

The company reviews your action, and immediately lessens production or service.  It might be one-percent....maybe three-percent....maybe even ten-percent.

'Timmy' tells you a month later....the numbers changed.  What 'Timmy' is missing...is that you shifted the product to a slower schedule, or that you moved some production outside of the country.

A new problem is developed (oddly)....there's a shortage of X-product.  

A new agency/focus is started....to figure out why shortages now exist.  They hire a 'Timmy-2'.  His numbers reflect a problem where you need more incentive (cash-flow/profit).

Timmy-1 and Timmy-2 fight over the analysis.

Eventually....a new agency is formed....there seems to be too much regulation.  They hire a Timmy-3  to show the numbers.

Someone at this point figures out....the whole excess profits tax has only one purpose....hiring more people to fix a non-existent problem.

Four German Political Realities

 1.  If you had an election today....from the left spectrum (SPD, Greens, Linke, BSW)...you'd have a total of 39-percent of the vote (April poll).  

Right spectrum.....56-percent (CDU, CSU, FDP, AfD).

But to form a coalition (avoiding AfD)....you have to partner up with some left-group, and dilute the 'win'.

2.  As much as CDU-CSU claims to be conservative in nature....probably 20-percent are CINO (conservative in name only).  

3.   A topic that few politicians or journalists discuss?  As of the end of 2025, the combined debt of German municipalities and municipal associations....adds up to around €196 billion.

They'd  like for the federal gov't to find some 'gift' fund and help cure this 'ill'.

4.  If things did spiral into a collapse of the coalition....a new election would merely reshuffle the current crew into different seats, but basically the same arrangement, and the same ending....a new collapse within two years (my humble belief).

The most you'd gain with a new election is Merz likely being told to exit, and you end up with a new Chancellor pretending to be a CDU conservative and lacking authority skills.   

12 April 2026: Germany: 4 Things

 1. What you can take out of the failed Iran-US peace talks?  Two things.

First, there's two leadership 'waves'....one is the IRGC military-arm....which wants things to stay 'as-is'. The other is the Iran crowd that agrees....'change' has to occur in some form.  The crowd at this Pakistan talks situation....were mostly the 'change' crew, and they were challenged to simply stall.

Second, Iran readily admits....they've got no real data on sea-mines that they laid.  They simply dumped them at random. There's work to be done to find and eradicate the mines.

2. Lufthansa pilots striking Monday/Tuesday.  From travel social media  commentary....a fair number of Germans are saying 'enough', and suggesting the airline is on their 'avoid' list.  

I'm scheduled (with the wife) to use Lufthansa...next week (on Sunday).  The wife has already asked me for a plan-B.

3.  From today onwards, the sale of nitrous oxide (laughing gas) to private individuals will be prohibited in Germany.

4.  For years in Berlin....there were public 'displays' of executions at protests/demonstrations....to thrill the crowd, I imagine.  Well....the public display of executions at rallies and demonstrations in Berlin....is now prohibited. If you do a fake execution....cops can now arrest you (at least in Berlin). 

Good Quote

 "The 'CDU Social Wing' has fewer than 10,000 members. Why? Because it—like the SPD—no longer makes policy for workers. Workers want growth, performance, and a functioning state, not a confiscatory state that distributes their money to the wrong people."

--Thorsten Alsleben (Berlin Journalist)

Yeah, it's pretty much a carbon copy of what you see in US politics at present.

A Curious Theatrical 'Show'

 After yesterday's Chancellor meeting with the key finance players of the CDU-CSU and SPD parties....things have gone 'south'.

If you were wondering....yeah, gas/fuel prices are the number topic right now, and the public wants relief (asap).

So there are three 'players' in this 'act'....Chancellor Merz, the Finance Minister (Klingbeil/SPD), and the Economics Minister (Reiche, CDU).

There are three elements to this landscape:

1.  Merz wanted options laid out and gave both Reiche and Klingbeil a couple of day.  What Klingbeil went to...were three elements.  He wanted a profits-tax laid down on oil/gas companies.   Some gov't guy would decide how much profit you were allowed, and then taxes would kick in.   Then Klingbeil started a talk on gas-caps....meaning the gov't would set a price.  Finally...Klingbeil invited in a number of SPD-players (union folks, etc) to talk up his agenda items.

2.  Reiche....said 'what-the-hell' on the Klingbeil's meeting and dumped massively on the tax and cap talk.  This got the SPD membership all disturbed.

3.  Finally, the talent/skills of Merz  for leadership....fell into play where he tried to tell Reiche not to 'dump' so hard on Klingbeil.  What's been known for three decades....Merz lacks authority skills.  

So now...a funny factor starts to enter the scene.

There are elements of the CDU-CSU Party....which you'd  call CINOs (CDU in name  only)....meaning they lean pretty much in the center, or to the left.  They want Reiche 'fired'.

If this firing were to occur....a fair number of CDU conservatives would begin to ask questions and the public support would drop.

Economic downturn? YES, and the polling (coming up this week) will reflect more disenchantment with Merz and the coalition.

Collapse coming?  No one wants a new election....in fear of AfD numbers.

Two state elections coming up in the fall.....Mecklenburg-Vorpommern and Saxony-Anhalt....both slated as 'wins' for AfD....if polling stays in line.

The one act that resolve this mess?  Either totally cut, or marginally cut the fuel-energy-CO2 tax (leaving the VAT sales tax in place).  This would cut roughly 30 cents off the cost of fuel.  

The problem?  The SPD uses the revenue made off this tax for a bunch of their 'gifts'  to SPD voters.  

ARD/ZDF (the two public TV players)?  Well...this whole story is marginally covered in  Saturday night's news.  If you did lay it out....Merz, the SPD, and element of the CDU....look pretty crappy. 

Unhappy German Voters

'Bild am Sontag'....the Sunday newspaper in Germany that a fair number of folks  read....will have results of a survey in tomorrow's edition....done by Insa.

So....70- percent of German eligible voters are dissatisfied with Chancellor Merz's work/accomplishments.

At this point....only 21 percent are satisfied. 

The coalition?   Well...73 percent of voters are dissatisfied.  Yeah, it is a record.

How it splits out politically? 69 percent of SPD voters and 56 percent of CDU/CSU supporters are dissatisfied with the coalition's performance. 

They also show more  disgruntled in the east....than the west.

What this leads onto?  There's no national election until early 2029.  The CDU-CSU and SPD folks are 'safe' at present.....but unless they can show accomplishments...things are in a crappy spiral.

Economics playing a large part of this?   Yeah....Merz  was supposed to be the guy to lead the nation back to prosperity. 

Crisis Chatter

From  an hour ago....in Berlin....near Lake Tegel....around 12:30....black limos pulled up.

Some kind of crisis meeting....CDU-CSU and SPD....gas talks....tax relief....tax burden....political BS.

Anyone's guess how much crap comes out of this.

If The Merz Coalition Collapsed?

 Well....you'd go to a new election.

Currently, with numbers....AfD would win with 26-percent....the CDU-CSU folks would likely get in the 24-to-25 percent range.  Rest?  Figure Greens at around 14-percent....Linke at 10-to-12 percent...SPD near 12-percent.  Maybe the FDP might get in there with 5-percent...enough to get seats.

AfD would be UNABLE to form a coalition....so after four weeks of failure....the CDU-CSU would get the chance to form a coalition.

To reach 50-percent or more....they'd have to partner with the Greens and FDP....a four-party 'mess'.

Merz in this leadership role?  No....I doubt it.  A whole new figure would emerge.

Lasting long?  With four coalition members?  No....I would imagine they'd last two years max.

All of a big sign for public trust?  Not really.

But if you were AfD....you could count on opposing this group, and gaining another five-to-eight points over that 26-point situation, and making the next election even more crappy for the CDU-CSU.

Sorry, if I seem overly pessimistic.

Where Is The German Gas/Energy Tax Spent?

As you might not remember....as you tank up....there are two taxes....one for the VAT (sales tax) and one for the Klima- und Transformationsfonds (KTF) — the federal Climate and Transformation Fund.

So where is the KTF cash spent? 

For 2025....the national system already generated around 16 billion Euro. 

They fund:

- Building renovation and heating replacement (e.g. subsidies for heat pumps, insulation, switching from gas/oil....the “Heizungstausch” deals).

- Expansion of renewable energies and energy-efficiency technologies.

- Electric mobility (charging infrastructure, e-car incentives, conversion of public transport fleets).

- Decarbonization of industry (hydrogen projects, carbon contracts for difference, efficiency upgrades)

- Electricity price relief for households and companies (indirectly lowers your Stromrechnung via various mechanisms).  If you pose the question....it's probably in the 5-to-10 percent range of savings mingled with your yearly bill.

- Other climate projects (rail infrastructure expansion, research into climate-neutral tech).

So the more you can contribute....the more they can give away or fund.  And if you were wondering about the 200-odd charging stations  that seem to exist between your house and work....which mostly seem empty....the excess funds paid for the rarely used charging stations.  The money was also used to give you a 2k Euro incentive to buy a E-car.  

Five Economic Realities Over Germany

 (This is my own personal list)

1.  Even with a number of years of marginal growth (mixed stagnation)....Germany is still considered Europe's top performer.    (It's amusing to  remember this fact)

2.  Even with all the negative 'chatter'.....Germany still runs one of the world’s largest current-account surpluses. 

3.  If a German company can't make what they consider a respectful profit....then they will disengage (quit making the product), or exit to a location where profit is possible. If you think you can control such a company (by gov't efforts)....you will end up with unemployed, and unhappy voters.

4.  From a FORSA 2025 survey....roughly 55-percent of German society complains of work-place stress....preventing them from being happy.  My German wife is among this group.  Oddly, between comp-time built up and regular leave (she turns 60 this year)....she has close to 48 days of leave for 2026.   As you might surmise....leave time doesn't lessen stress.  The whole nation feels this odd problem.

5. The bulk of German society has a equity problem....where they can't really convince banks to loan money for housing....which the gov't says there simply aren't enough homes/apartments....anyway.

Political Theatrics This Weekend

Back on Thursday AM....Chancellor Merz went to the Finance Minister (Klingbeil, SPD), and Economics Minister (Reiche, CDU)....asking them  to jointly present proposals for tax relief (over the escalating gas situation in Germany).

So 24 hours pass. Friday, the Finance Minister invited employers and unions to a high-level meeting. Reiche, went to the press and went  into a pretty critical commentary over the SPD's proposals.  For reference....the chief thing....was a profit-tax on gas/oil companies.  Her words?  "Expensive, ineffective, and constitutionally questionable." 

Things got heated, and Klingbeil mostly wanted Merz to yank on Reiche's chain. He had to....because the SPD is in such a weakened public perception (over the past year).

Merz did have a talk....from  what is suggested.....he told her to practice restraint. 

Merz caught in the middle?  Well...he kinda remembers how the SPD-led coalition in 2004 collapsed over money/tax issues.....and presently he appears drifting  toward the same 'mess'.

Where this is headed?  There's a fair amount of chatter today (Saturday) over dumping Reiche....within the CDU and CSU parties.

A bunch of them?  No.....it seems like there is a pro-SPD element within the CDU and CSU groups.  They have a point....they don't want a collapse, and things are pretty crappy if you have a forced-election right now.

Where all of this is headed?  

I'll make three observations:

1.  A lot of Germans remember 2024 and the SPD-led coalition collapsing.  Same path....same trend....arguing by SPD of new taxes.  This current trend reminds them of that spiral.

2.  I would imagine as Reiche gets 'dumped' (likely to happen shortly)....if you poll the parties at the end of April....the  CDU-CSU folks lose 2 points.

3.  As the profit-tax likely occurs (my belief is that it'll happen by early June)....the gas/oil companies will quietly add the tax to their costs, and pass it onto  the consumer.  Neither the SPD or CDU-CSU folks will admit this reality.  In fact, this might be so popular....that eventually every commercial company has profit-taxes.....which are all tied  in a bundle and passed onto consumers.  In a way....it is funny....but also tragic in how things occur these days.

As for who replaces Reiche?  I'm sure that Merz is asking around, and finding the top five CDU candidates on his list....all of them are saying no.  They all probably had critical comments over the profit-tax concept.

I will agree...it's a great 'show' to  view.

11 Apr 2026: Germany: 14 Things

 1.  AfD Party putting forward new agenda....requiring German schools to offer a homeland-studies class.  Probably won't be picked up by Greens or SPD....some CDU-voters might engage upon the idea.

One obvious point....education changes are a state-by-state thing...not a German federal mandate.  

2. NYT article:  Iran reportedly can’t 'fully' reopen the Strait of Hormuz.  Reason?  Well....they seem to lack planning and coordinates on where they 'dropped' them off, and they admit....don't have the equipment to remove them.

If you had $10,000 for investing purposes.....I'd go and buy stock in mine-detection companies....vast amount of spending is about to occur.

3.  Trump says Spain is out on trade-deals....no need to buy anything and import into the US, because of the base issue.  Amounts to?  Well.....2025....it was up around $20-plus billion.

Would imagine....Spain will have to walk around this topic and say they didn't understand the full problem. 

4.  German high fuel price issue?  Hot topic presently.

SPD Party wants a 'profit-tax'  on oil/gas companies....if they make above x-amount....serious taxes.  Who would deem high-profit situation?   Unknnown.  

But they did agree....the energy tax at the pump....ought to be lessen 'real-quick'.

Finally, they've started talking about a gas-price 'cap'.....where some gov't agency would say the price is max at 'X'.  

Whether the CDU-CSU will agree on the profit-tax or gas-price cap?  Unknown,

5.  Some  talk started up.....tunnel being discussed between Morocco and Spain.  Hype is that African trade would rapidly expand.  How you'd prevent massive migration surge on such a tunnel?  Unknown.

6.  N-24 item: At least two million Germans do not have access to 'fast-internet'.

7.  BASF (the company) and Ramstein AB...both report surge in UAPs being seen in the past 6 week....45 'events' for Ramstein, and 40 for BASF facilities.

Chinese? Russia? Aliens?  Unknown.  German Bundeswehr claims to have anti-UAP capabilities, but have yet to shoot down any of the UAPs.

8. SPD Party talking of increased audits of high-earners in Germany.

9.  Impending jet-fuel shortage in Europe?  Yeah.  Folks think in terms of travel, but it would affect air-cargo flights as well, and US air base situations.  Probably something that will pop up daily in May.

10.   What you really see from the Iran-US talks?  Two factions of Iranian  authority exist....one group wants to move on and leave the Mullah-era....the other is fairly attached to the past 47 years and wants the anti-US/Israel conditions to continue.

I asked Grok if there is a banking crisis brewing (more so than in 2025).  Response?   There apparently...in the past month....has developed some cash liquidity shortages.   How bad?  Most Iranian banks are running out of physical notes on a daily basis.  So to react....there are informal withdrawal caps of roughly $20 to $30. The rial currency?  It's fallen to historic lows (over 1.4–1.75 million per 1 USD).  Inflation hit 40-percent in March.

11.  Oddly, Europe seems to have bought significant volumes of Russian LNG in March.  

If you look at the numbers....it's reacting to lower deliveries from the Persian Gulf.

12.  Some kind of chatter going on in the UK.....PM office saying the nation needs to prepare for 'war'....but they aren't clear about who it is....to worry about.  I assume the evil-Russians.  I would guess that one-third of the nation would appreciate a Putin-invasion and consider it step-up from the Starmer era.

13.  I was looking at some German stat's..... only around 5.7 percent of German adults (between 30 and 44 years old) have sufficient equity to be able to take out a loan for a home of their own.  

It's a trend that has been developing over the past decade in Germany.

14.  This AM....locally for E10 fuel....2.04 Euro (down from last weekend, 2.17).

UK Story

 I sat this AM....reading a short report....from the UK Health Security Agency, UKHSA.

The PhD guys for them....said after analysis of 2025's summer....there were an estimated 1,504 heat-deaths in England last summer.

Basically....'heat-associated deaths'.  

Wanda and Carl....lingering out in the sun for six-odd hours...forgot to sip water, or wore the wrong clothing...got dehydrated....then slipped off to die.

I lived for four years in Arizona, and basically understand the concept of 'being-stupid'.    

What I might ask....did the PhD guys read or collect the death certificates, and did the 'authority' say heat-stress or dehydration, and I'm guessing in most of the 1,504 cases....the answer is no.

I'm also guessing (the story never told a complete data situation).....that ages weren't associated with the 1,504 folks.  In the Arizona environment....where the heat-stress was a issue...in most cases, it was folks over the age of fifty.  

The got-stupid syndrome?  Well....what I noticed in Arizona when the topic came up....folks usually got dehydrated fairly easy, and never seemed willing to recognize the signs.  If they did seek liquids...in the bad cases...they sought beer or coffee.  

Iranian Cash Chatter

 I asked AI (Grok) this AM to assemble a solution to the question.....how much money shifted out of Iran since 2000.....from the private 'holder'.  You know....'capital-flight'.

So that was a 15-minute effort by AI.  First, Grok noted...NO ONE in the gov't is collecting such data, and it's mostly non-Iranian sources who noticed such things.  Then Grok noted...the chief reason for the 'flight'....was inflation and avoiding local/regional banks (stability question).  

From 2015 to early-2025....the number comes up to around 145-billion dollars that left.  That's about 45-percent of the GDP.

For the period 2011 to 2015....the number amounts to about $10-Billion per year.

For 2025 by itself?  Well....curiously, the amount surged massively....figure in the mid $30-Billion range (like they knew things were going to spiral).

The period 2000 to 2011?  Mostly a guessing game, and figured in the $5-Billion a year range or less.

Clearly, a guy who ran a business and ran yearly profits....had zero interest in improving his business or putting the cash into Iranian banks for loan/savings value. 

So all this cash lingering in non-Iran banks?  Yeah.  

Associated with both the 'good-guys' and 'bad-guys'?  This has been brought up a good bit....where the Mullahs themselves have cash-flow, and they diverted money outside of Iran....to buy property and financial assets.  

Thoughts over $1-Trillion outside of the country?  This group saw no advantage (short-term or long-term) in keeping  their profits within Iran.  Zero trust is the key element....harming the banks.

Iran: A Balkanization Example

 I spent two hours yesterday going over Iran demographics.  If you wanted a perfect example relating to old Yugoslavia....Iran is it.

The chief group making up about 60-percent of the population....'true-Persians'....making up most of the population in the center and western portion of the country.  This is the Islamic Shia group, and makes the national identity of their religion....the central theme.

The Kurds?  They make up around 7-to-9 percent of the population, and relate to the Sunni-religion.  This group highly divided?  Oh yeah.

There's the Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan (PDKI/KDPI)....been around since 1946.  There's the Komala (Komala Party of Iranian Kurdistan)....who lean a bit to the left.  There's the PJAK (Kurdistan Free Life Party).  And there's the PAK (Kurdistan Freedom Party).

Then you have the Baloch tribal folks....mostly around 2-to-3 percent of the population....who are Sunni.  They exist on the far SE of Iran, and relate more to a poverty 'class' than anything else.

Then you have the ethnic Arabs (making up around 3-percent of the  population....mostly concentrated in Khuzestan)....in the SW of Iran....cut out of the local oil profits.

Finally, you have the Azerbaijani (Azeri) Separatism (NW of Iran)....the big minority (figure between 16-to-20 percent of the country.

There's no doubt that as the leadership authority had oil profits rolling in....it benefited the Persian community more than any other group.  But these other groups could never find a connection to bridge gaps and unify.

It is a country that needs to fragment like Yugoslavia did.  If I were Trump....I'd connect to the SW and SE corners of the country....with the higher ethnic groups, and let them have the weapons to fragment the Persian landscape.

10 Apr 2026: Germany: 5 Things

 1.  Chancellor had a face-to-face meeting Thursday morning with the Finance Minister (SPD-guy).....didn't go well.  Merz wants tax relief over gas prices....Klingbell said 'no'.  

Poland yesterday dropped their VAT over fuel by over 50-percent.  

2.  Would appear that the once-a-day gas-price change mandate.....is not very popular with the public.

3. Yes, it does appear that a German government proposal allowing local authorities to block home purchases if buyers are suspected of "anti-constitutional" views, even absent any conviction or court ruling....exists (draft law).

Author?  The draft bill, advanced by SPD Construction Minister Verena Hubertz.

The way written....it would let municipalities exercise first refusal on properties after consulting the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution (Verfassungsschutz) and other agencies.

So, yeah....there's a fair amount of criticism over this idea.  The CDU-CSU folks haven't said much.  SPD would need their support to pass it.

Legal?  I would imagine challenges will occur.

The chief issue I see...in various areas of eastern Germany....in some towns/cities....it's around 40-percent of the population who might fit into the 'block-home-purchases'.  You'd create 'dead-zones' over a decade with this type of law.

4.  I went back to review US base financial relationships in K-Town, Wiesbaden, and Stuttgart....with all this 'exit-NATO' chatter.

So, from 2019.....the US added up the amount of money they pump into Kaiserslautern, and it amounted to $1.2-billion from the base structure (to include  Landstuhl and the Army in K-Town), and military folks freely spending money.

Stuttgart?  Well...they don't really collect this kind of data (either on purpose or accidentally).  Best guess?  It's near one-third of the K-town number (figure around $400-million).

Wiesbaden?  Similar story as Stuttgart....data as a best guess.....near $400-million yearly.

In the cases of Wiesbaden/Stuttgart....if the Army up and left....there might be a one-year stumble, but both have the ability to recover and proceed on. 

In the case of  Kaiserslautern....it's probably a five-year stumble, and it'd require massive 'help' from the Pfalz state government to recover.

5. If you  haven't paid attention in the past ten days to Ireland....you might want to spend ten minutes reviewing the ongoing crisis.

On my civil-conflict-index  (1-to-10)....I'd say Ireland is close to a '4'.

To relate this in a clear fashion....the public has basically said 'enough' (mostly on immigration but includes other topics as well).  The police are saying if you need arresting for disturbing public safety....it's six months of jail.   

Well...the public went to halting police vehicles from refueling....triggering the national authority to say it's a police crisis....calling for the Irish Army to be ordered to 'help'.  Some Army enlisted are saying they won't participate in this type of action.

As fragile as the economy is....I'd say they are probably seven to ten days from a massive shut-down.  

The one odd thing that I seem to get from the landscape.....Irish people aren't really afraid of the police, the law,  or the authorities.  

If the authorities fail, or  the gov't falls?  Well....there's to be a messy immigration situation to develop, and thousand of migrants to leave for some safer land. 

When The Ukraine-Russia War Ends......

 Putin has two central issues: finding manpower for what used to exist in Russia, and having the economic strength to rebuild tanks, artillery, and combat equipment.

For the most part, if you believe the past four decades of Russian census-taking  was wildly inaccurate.....the next fifty years of Russian manpower will be utterly crap, and depend a great deal on attracting non-Russians to come in and replace the dead.

But the equipment problem becomes a comedy of sorts.

Mixed into the requirements....you have to figure that hundreds of guys want to be on the receiving end....taking 30-percent of the cost of each tank or helicopter....as their profit.  Some might be hoping for 50-percent.

So I expect the first decade to be a challenge....where dozens of folks are dragged in for execution...on profit-taking, and various programs are halted because so many took bribes/extra-profits.

This era?  Well....likely to be forty-plus years and have Putin's name attached to a great degree.

Q-and-A

 1.  All that German chatter last week....if you were from age 18 to 45 and German male.....needing 'permission' to be outside of Germany for 90-plus days....suddenly quiet?

Well....yeah, the chief of the Bundeswehr (German Army)....wrote a waiver and said it's NOT in effect.  I should mention here....he's SPD, and the number one candidate for the 2029 Chancellor election.  

2.  Gas prices dropping?

Today, around noon....it's expected to be near 2.05-to-2.07 in most places....very dramatic drop.  As long as peace talks continue in Pakistan with the US/Iran....it'll go this way.  By Sunday....I'd tank up....believing this peace-game won't last.

3.  Germans getting a lot of BS on the war?

I'd say from the Iranians...yeah, there's a campaign of misinformation going on, and journalists are trying to get a message out that the normal sources at the Pentagon....won't talk to them.

4.  How much has Germany made off pumped-up gas-tax revenues in the past month?

Well....the calculation that I saw on Focus....says half-a-billion Euro.  The Finance Ministry is fairly 'gleeful' but hoping folks don't ask questions.  If this were to go on for another 4 to 6 weeks?  I'd guess it hits 1-to-1.5 billion extra Euro.

5. 'Blood-rain' coming?

It's a odd weather development....there's a African dust-storm believed to arrive around Saturday night....with a rainy front from the Atlantic.   So if you live in Germany....you will notice some odd reddish coating on your car by Monday.

6. FDP Party has new leadership.....threatening the CDU in  some ways?

It's an odd 'play'.   Kubicki is the new party boss of the FDP, and the normal voters  of the party (center-center group.....anti-tax is their general offering)....has Merz and the CDU worried.  The typical guy who'd vote for FDP....is probably a CDU voter.  

Presently, the FDP is polling 4-percent.  I might project in 6 months....them being near 7-percent, but taking the 3 points from the CDU or CSU (marginally holding at 25-percent....2 points down from AfD). 

8.  Trump talking NATO base closings?

Yeah....he can't  quit NATO (Senate has to approve)....but he can shift troops around. 

My closure guesses?  Moron and Rota (Spain) are likely closed.  Spangdahlem is likely on a shift deal (I'm betting they get moved to Poland).  Lakenheath and Mildenhall are on my 50-50 list....likely being discussed.  

Army-wise?  You might see most of the Army in Germany on a 2-to-3 year removal list....maybe going to the Pacific theater. 

I'm also likely to believe that nuke assets will be removed out of Europe and Trump saying Putin is not a threat to security.

9.  Iran-US peace talks?

Hot in the news this AM....extra-hard anti-US Iranians leaders....saying 'it-ain't-right' to talk up peace against the moderate Iranian leadership.  So  I'm of the mind...by Monday, this whole  thing is dissolved, and they go back to full-scale war.

Why Pakistan is so pro-peace?  Well....they took cash from UAE and Saudi Arabia....up around 8-to-10 billion dollars....to be a defense component for them, and they haven't shown any interest in getting involved in the war.  So the UAE and Saudi Arabia are saying....pay the money back.  If peace talks fail....Pakistan is financially screwed.

10. Significant banking crisis for Iran?

Oddly, no one talks much about it.

The last crisis (2008)....it was pretty bad for about 6 to 12 months.  Presently, it seems  worse.

This current crisis for Iran involves clear indicators of banking sector distress: at least one major bank failure, multiple others at high risk of collapse, widespread liquidity and insolvency problems, service disruptions, and heavy government intervention through money printing and forced mergers. 

Some of this is recent....some are simply long-term problems that haven't been fixed/resolved...added with U.S./international sanctions, corruption, mismanagement, non-performing loans (NPLs), and fiscal dominance by the state, and have been worsened by recent conflict.

The 'big' bank....Ayandeh Bank....large private lender tied to regime-connected figures.....got into failure issues with nearly $5 billion in losses.  Mostly came from bad loans, self-lending to insiders/cronies, and  Ponzi-like practices (offering high interest rates while relying on inflationary money printing).  They only got saved by being force into a merger into the state-owned Bank Melli. I should add here....based on the end-result....the government had to print new-and-fresh money to cover losses.

Added to the mess....since 'war' started....major state banks like Bank Melli and Bank Sepah have suspended services.  Cause?  Well....those Israeli and American folks were conducting cyberattacks.   Then they were both bombing key structures  of the banks.  Naturally.....bank accounts were apparently frozen for many customers.  I should note this....it's not just the typical customer affected....but the upper-level gov't bosses...stuck with no cash flow as well.

The mullahs may think the country can run for weeks without cash flow....but reality is something totally different.