The Little Guy Confidence Subject

The Ifo Institute has a fairly significant mission in Germany.  They measure small business confidence.

In the world of commercial affairs, it's typically the business world that really reflects growth and consumer confidence that connect to the little guy and mean something to regular households.  If a guy owns a 5-man business operation, and he's really down over business....then folks around assume that attitude, and then worry about their future and stability.  If the boss comes into work grinning and smiling....it's a attitude that carries over, and the employees go home.....giving off the same enthusiasm.

The same logic works with a 4k man operation where the CEO walks boldly in and talks up orders and folks then relate that "safety" to buying a new car in the spring, or taking a four-star vacation in the fall.

The Ifo guys have a magic number that relates to business confidence, and it's the highest that it's been since the Berlin Wall went down (back to 1990).  They admit, if you go back to 2009....it was a terrible number and reflected one of the worst economic stumbles in decades.  Germany was in serious trouble in the spring of 2009.  So we've come to this recovery phase now...eighteen months later.  This is a 3.4 percent growth period for 2010, but even for 2011....the government is still talking about a 1.8 percent period of growth (something that some countries haven't seen in years).

The job market is moving, cars are selling, and it appears the next twelve months ought to be an awful positive period for the government and the nation.  If you look around Europe....there might be one or two others in a somewhat positive moment....and everyone else is still waiting on things to settle (their recovery could be five years away).

The amazing thing is that if you go down to the local pub....there will sit Huns and Karl....and the topic of recovery isn't on their top twenty-five items of discussion.  This is the fascinating part of this story.  Germans aren't exactly bragging about the recovery....they simply participate in it.  It's the business community that brags, and of course...the political folks.  The local guys in the pub, Huns and Karl, will sum up the scores of soccer from the previous night, discuss the latest Penny Markt robbery by Russians, and perhaps settle on the worst landscaped yard in the local village.

Euro Woes

There is a great article over at the Financial Times today....over how the Euro might just collapse and come to an end...because of Germany.

It's an interesting scenario.  Germany has put up with lots of controls over the past decade.  So here are the Germans in a perfect world....they saved to meet the bad days...and some other neighbors who never saved...are knocking at the German door for money.  If it had just been the Greeks...things might have been ok.....but frankly, with Portugal, Spain and Ireland in this shadows for money...this just isn't a simple case.

It would be curious to know if some alternate German plan existed for D-Marks to be issued.  My guess is that a small group of German economists have studied the idea and know the entire schedule to switch back over.

The shock will be for the Spanish, Irish and Portuguese.  They need someone to rescue them other than the banks....because they can't afford the massive changes that banks would demand for their loans.  

Just Some Signs

Germany is this unique place where signs really matter.  So when you travel on the autobahn or the back-roads of Germany....you have to pay attention.  Germans spend a lot of time thinking about signs and how they relate to life and safety.  Signs are geared to save you time or effort.

When I arrived in Germany in 1978, I spent almost an entire weekend memorizing the stupid driver's license manual and there were well over 120 signs that you had to grasp and you had to pass two separate tests for your license.  One was the sign test and you had barely thirty minutes to get forty out of fifty signs correct.  That barely gives you 30 seconds on each to recognize and ID it.

This sign for example.....is supposed to tell you that the primary road curves, and the other two roads have come to an end and must stop.  So you just keep driving on the curved road.  This didn't make alot of sense to me but eventually....after a year of driving around....I realized it made perfect sense.

The problem with this sign is that if you come out of the other two roads....you have to come to a complete stop.  No yield or a 'California-stop'.

Then I came to this 'no entry sign'.  I came to discover that Germany has alot of roads that are one-way.  Almost every village has at least one no-entry, and most have a dozen....just for a small village.

It's important to remember this sign, because if you were to screw up on this identification.....there'd be a hefty traffic ticket involved.

I worked with a guy who violated the sign in his neighborhood because there was a shortcut that he'd learned about.  It was a 300 foot piece of road that he needed to cover and it'd cut two minutes out of his trip.  The sad thing is that he used this violation for a year...until the German cops came up one day and were standing there....and handed a ticket involving a fair amount of money.

The einbahnstrasse sign is simply a one-way sign.  Again, we go back to this issue that you find in villages and towns....one-way streets.  Once you come up against this sign...it's best to follow the arrow and get to an exit point.

Finally, I come to a new sign which has only appeared in the past five years....its the umwelt sign.

If you live in a major town like Berlin, Hamburg, or even Wiesbaden, then it's likely to have a major part of that town which is forbidden for older model cars.  How do you know your situation and your car?

Well...there's these decals which you are supposed to have on the windshield which would note a green, yellow or red zone.  Your local mechanic can establish the year model of your car and check it out.

This umwelt deal is supposed to clean up the fumes around these major cities and project a very 'green' environment.

The Greeks and the Germans

Over the past year....the Greeks have kinda been in the background of Germany.  After the full-blown Greek economic crisis....Greece ended up on its knees.  They'd basically screwed up....dozens of times....and kept telling folks over two decades of great numbers...when they weren't any great numbers.  The Germans gave their typical view of how to fix things, and the Greeks objected.

This week....the Irish came around to admitting they were in bad economic times....for differing reasons from the Greeks.  The Greeks decided to pop up and blame Germany on the rise in borrowing costs going on in Europe.

I stopped and pondered over the typical difference between Germans and Greeks.  I've spent two weeks of my life in Greece, and fifteen years in Germany.  I admit I know more on Germans, but I've had a chance to observe Greeks and make a few observations.

Greeks tend to have a family view of success.  If you do well...you ought to share in your success with your brother, your cousin, your uncle, etc.  For a German, it's a singular view of success.  A German doesn't typically share his fortune or get the family into his successful restaurant business.  On the other hand, a Greek also shares his misfortunes and lack of success also with the family....which the German doesn't typically do.

Greeks and Germans both have an expectation of the government taking care of them.  The difference between the two is that Germans have a price-tag attached to the bill and can tell you where the breaking point is.  The Greeks don't know the price....don't care about the price....and will just spend on and on until someone mentions that they've pretty much spent every single penny they had.

Laziness?  Well....yeah.  Germans are this breed that hates any element of laziness.  You can note them in the yard on a Saturday morning....spending time to trim everything and make it all appear proper.  Germans put effort into a project.  The Greeks?  They tend to need a bit of encouragement....then a bit more encouragement....and then a bit more of encouragement.

For a Greek....tomorrow is another day and if we've got work left....then it's not a big deal to continue on with a project.  For a German....you wrap up the project today and don't waste time on what could be accomplished today.

If you got into a war situation....the Greeks would all eventually argue about tactics or discipline or life in the barracks.  The Germans would have the map and expect each goal of the day to be accomplished, then you could talk about strategy or things you hate.

These are two very different societies, and it's almost amusing watching the two debate on things because they just can't see eye to eye on anything.  Germans learn from screw-ups and Greeks tend to discuss the screw-ups but never get to a lesson's learned stage.

I'm pretty sure that the fat lady hasn't sung on this mess....and we'll just get more of complaining between the two.

The Good Nazis?

The US came out over the weekend and kinda admitted that after World War II....it kinda took in all these Nazis.  It wasn't totally clear on the actual number and I suspect no one has a true tally because lots of folks had different ways of handling this issue of entering the US.

Reasons why?  Frankly, if you were a German Nazi of high standing in Germany....you just couldn't stay in Germany after the war.  Folks were going to ask questions and various degrees of legal detention were going to be brought up.  It'd be safe to admit that Chile, Argentina and Latin America was a major place to hide out....but if you had something of value...from technology or information....it made sense to negotiate with the US on a entry permit.

So, should any of us really be shocked?  I suspect that certain groups will say it's ethically wrong....but you weren't standing there in 1945 and didn't have the prospective that we have today.  I would also imagine that we probably would have seen political Nazis differently from German military leaders.

So it's done.  Are we going to punish anyone from the 1945 era for this "crime"?  No.  Anyone for putting someone in jail for this episode?  I doubt it.  Historians will center their vision on this topic for a year or two....and then put it down for a decade.  Frankly, you reach a point where there's a brief flame and then it's gone.  You can't rewrite a vast amount of history on this topic.

As for a defense of this whole thing?  Maybe these were the good Nazis.  We are always bombarded with this German label on Americans of the "bad Americans" and "good Americans".....so maybe that logic existed then.  It would be curious to know where they ended up and if they built up mega empires of wealth or technology.  If there was a part two to this story....maybe that's what the New York Times ought to work on next.

Europeans and Friendliness

Friendliness is a difficult thing to measure around Europe.  For an American, we are always looking for a friendly nod, a handshake, a hug, or some moment when the other guy is just acting in a friendly way.  To be truthful...you can find Germans who are actually overly friendly, although it might not be in the manner that you'd expect.

I always considered the Italians and British to be about the most friendly folks that you could bump into when traveling around Europe.  Every single Italian is like a local guide and wants to give you the best restaurant for a meal or a glass of wine.  For Brits....all you have to do is admit you are lost...and suddenly you've got a cast of crazy characters wanting to give you twelve lines of information on how lost you are, where you got lost, and how you might regain your compass points (they will list eight points in the local area to remember).

Number three on my friendly list are the Danes.  They tend always offer a helping hand and you'd almost feel at home in Denmark.

I won't go to a bottom of the list group because it really doesn't help.  Sometimes...you'd be shocked at some car problem you have in a isolated Bavarian village, and then discover that the local mechanic does speak English and going way out of his way to help.  You could be in Amsterdam and have some local spend ten minutes explaining how things work there.  You could actually be standing in the midst of Paris and some friendly character comes up to point in the right direction to recover your bearings.

So I'm not trying to say negative things about anyone in Europe.  It's just that you ought to have a lesser set of expectations.  Going to Europe isn't like visiting Murfreesboro, Tennessee.  If you start at that level....you probably will be happy and satisfied.  And remember....they are observing you at the same time.

A German Roadmap

Around December of 1998, I made this decision to retire from the military in Germany....and stay to work in Germany as a contractor on base.  Naturally, the tax test came to apply, and I ended being forced to get a visa and become "Germanized".  On day one of my decision....I walked over to the base personnel office and asked for the roadmap for this visa business.  They just laughed, and said all they knew was the first step started at the local town-hall.  That was it.

So I went to the town-hall and started step one.  I asked about all the other steps.  They laughed.  They only knew step two....at the county court house where I'd actually apply for the visa.

I eventually discovered that no one had a roadmap.  All of these little dealings....from the driver's license to getting your vehicle re-tagged....came from each person in the next step in the line.

I was kinda shocked.  I thought Germans would have more of a process, but I eventually discovered that most Germans know almost nothing about the process, and have long since forgotten how they acquired their driver's license.  After a while, I wrote down notes and had a 21-odd step process sheet.  The curious thing was that it only applied to the local area of Kaiserslautern.

Complicated?  I suspect that if Germans knew the hassle involved and how silly some of these forms are....they'd probably try to fix the system.  Course, maybe I'm wrong....and they'd actually double the forms and the hassle.

What are the three things you should expect in this painful experience?  First, have a sense of humor because none of this is really intentional.  Second, don't worry....Germans won't offer any hugs or sympathetic feelings over your ordeal.  Third, at the end of this mess....is the tax guy and then you realize the real mess that you've climbed into.

Germans and their Cars

ADAC is Germany's premier autobahn road service organization.  When ADAC speaks on cars....people stop and listen.

This week, ADAC published a customer satisfaction survey.  The curious thing is that the Germans are most happy with..... Subaru cars.  Not Volkswagen.  Not Porsche.  Not Opel.  Not Audi.

At the bottom of this satisfaction survey?  France's Renault.

I would be the first to admit that Germans have high expectations.  If a German owned a Chevy and had to visit the dealer more than once in an entire year...he'd be furious.  If some problem continued with a car and required three visits in a 60-day period....they'd never buy from that company again....and they'd tell their neighbors far and wide of the experience.

I worked with an American a few years ago who had a five-year old Renault.  About every six months...the car went into the shop for something.  He liked the power.  He liked the compact nature of the car.  And he eventually got to know his neighborhood mechanic by his first name.

What surprised me is that BMW or Mercedes didn't take the top spot.  Maybe they were just expecting "more" and actually got a five-star car instead.

So what should you take away from this survey of ADAC?  It was made to measure your happiness with gas mileage, dependability, and general driving comfort....and some minor-league Japanese car won.  I should add that there aren't that many Subaru dealers in Germany.....and their sales don't match up to any of the top six franchises.  So they must be doing something right.

The Seat Discussion

It's an interesting "slap".  Germany and Japan woke up yesterday to her that President Obama was talking about the idea of getting India a permanent seat on the UN Security Council.  Both were peeved.  So they'd both like President Obama to mention that they deserved a seat.

The problem with this permanent seat business...is that folks would rather not get into a big huff about this.  You see....Brazil also thinks that it deserves a permanent seat.  Indonesia also thinks that it deserves a seat.  And South Africa thinks that it deserves a seat.

After a while, you kinda realize that the Security Council has it's limits and you can only spread the wealth around a certain amount.  You have the five permanent seats and then the ten seats that keep flipping....so countries like Cuba, Tonga, and Liberia get a shot once in a while.

My guess is that the Germans will bring this up in conversation....just to needle President Obama, and they know they will never get a seat.  The President will shift around in his seat and agree to say something and then says forty-four words to the effect that Germany has finally recovered from WW II....which will infuriate every single German....and then suggest they deserve a seat.  Japan will observe the comment, and just let everything drop because it's best not to have that WW II comment ever get brought up in public forums.

So for you Germans....sit tight....you've got another fifty-odd years to go.  By that point, the US will have the financial power of Tonga....and then you can make a pretty solid case of taking away their Security Council seat.

Starbucks Versus German Bakeries

This is my own personal evaluation....coming from an American....and covering something that people often debate....morning coffee and 'treats'.

I will be honest....if this were a simple debate over just coffee....it would be a very close call with German bakeries likely winning.  In most cases, when you walk into a German bakery....they have a premium coffee machine set up and whip up a cup within twenty seconds.  With most shops....I'd rate the coffee between four-star and five-star.

Yes, there are exceptions.  I can name a dozen German bakeries that I've walked into and found rather poor coffee served.

On the whole.....most shops don't serve lousy coffee, and you tend to pay for the premium cup that you get (don't worry....Starbucks would have charged the exact same amount).

Then comes the discussion over the croissant or the 'treat' that you will buy with the coffee.  Bluntly.....after you've had a couple of German 'treats'....you really don't want to slide back over to donuts or rich glazed items.  Yes, you give up a vast amount of sugar....and step back to something slightly more healthy in nature.  Germans will brag about this but let's be honest....200 percent sugar glaze versus 100 percent sugar glaze.....is a bit of a difference.

So I'm giving traditional German bakeries an edge here.  Course, if you wanted thirty-three different types of coffee....then Starbucks is it.  If you want ice-coffee....it's Starbucks because German bakeries will never offer ice-coffee (it just hasn't done well with Germans).

The Elite Game of Spiegel

Is the American dream over?

This is the newest Spiegel title for it's slam on the US.  For anyone who has kind of sat around and viewed Spiegel over the past two decades....you might note in almost every edition, there is a article that tries to cast a long shadow over the US, it's business structure, it's political structure, it's education system, it's medical structure, it's agricultural sector, and it's beers (we might not argue with that analysis).

The truth is....if any dedicated Spiegel journalist was given a task to write up the mandatory Spiegel slam on the US and they actually said something positive....I suspect they'd be fired or sent to write Bavarian agricultural articles in the future.

The simple truth is that Spiegel has an enormous task.  It must render judgement....ever constant...over the US.  This judgement must be in a fashion that only a educated German could deliver.  The problem with America?  It simply isn't capable of running its government, it's society, or it's culture.

It's kind of like reading a blitz of articles on the Green Bay Packers on a Monday after their big win or their big loss.  There will be forty national sports writers who dwell on the quarterback situation, the team's dismal draft choices, or the way that the coach ran the game.  Everyone will read the articles and be this secondary individual sitting in a LazyBoy recliner admiring their expert and his precise wording of how things worked terribly and the team should improve....even if they won.

Who reads Spiegel?  This is the fascinating thing about the magazine.  Walk through a German village and ask the butcher if he reads it....and the answer will be no.  Ask the car mechanic....and he'll say no.  Ask the plumber....and he'll say no.

Spiegel is typically read by well educated Germans....who naturally attended university and are quite bright.  They will always let you know that as well.  They will quote from Spiegel...like some religious folks would quote from Bible.  Typically, you can ask them questions which Spiegel didn't cover....they freak out that you know something that went beyond Spiegel's gifted writers.

Should you worry about these anti-American slams by Spiegel?  No.  It's actually worth reading a couple of paragraphs of the article so you kinda wonder on the things missing from the text.  It's like looking at a black & white version of the Mona Lisa....with some wonderful grays mingled into the picture....then remembering that a dozen other colors would fill out the entire picture and really make it complete.

Now, certainly....I don't want to insult the Spiegel folks because this is really the only 4-star magazine that gifted and educated Germans read.  Otherwise, they might start picking up the Bild or the London Telegraph....and that'd be a bad thing.

So, for you Spiegel folks....keep up the fine work.  If you notice....we haven't exactly fallen over ourselves because of your comments.  In fact, if you wanted to take them up a notch....why not draft up an anti-American article on NASCAR, NCAA football, Delta airline attendants, septic tanks, or Johnny Cash?  I suspect your readers would like some fresh criticism of America because you keep talking over the same general sixteen topics.

And the American dream?  Well....it's a funny thing....some Germans pack up every year, and go for the American dream....even living in Texas and driving a eight-cylinder pick-up.  Heck, some Germans (like Konny Reimann) get so successful in Texas, that they become a legend back home in Germany...then they start to sell their own salsa version....and start speaking German with a Texas accent.   Don't know why they'd do a crazy thing like that....especially in a failed country....like you guys say.

Be Nice!

German politicians got together and decided that they wanted a civil place to operate.  So they've invented these rules to be used in the Bundestag....and if you were doing something stupid or insulting someone....you could face up to 3,000 Euro in fines (roughly $4000).

It's a curious thing.  They've had some far left-wing folks appear in the Bundestag lately....protesting about the German troops in Afghanistan.  They wore t-shirts while on the floor, and even held protest signs about the war involvement.

Interestingly enough....both CDU and SPD members are agreed that the fine was necessary.  It hasn't passed yet....but it appears to have enough votes to make it happen.  This is supposed to "fix" the Bundestag.

I paused and thought about this.  It renders freedom of speech a bit of a blow.  You can't wear a t-shirt into the Bundestag with anti-whatever slogans.  You'd have to dress right, talk right, and behave right.

The more I thought about it....it'd be nice to have that kind of rule in the US congress and senate.  No more insulting and no crazy antics.  Course, we Americans would never go this far.

I suspect that someone will challenge this immediately and then spend two years running via the German court system to prove that they have the right to still do stupid things.  My guess is that the court might agree with them.  Then the next day....all of the nicely behaved Germans would show up in a t-shirt that had some Nazi symbol to demonstrate to the court that rules might be necessary.   That's typically the way that folks make a point in Germany.

The Blur in Germany

Google launched it's street view section of Germany yesterday.  The curious thing is that houses which the owner wanted "out" of Google....got that privilege but they still are in the shot....just blurred drastically.

You can imagine a German guy....happy because he opt'ed out, and today viewing the street.....seeing all his neighbors clearly, and his house is totally blurred.  What a number of Germans were thinking was that nothing from the house would be in the picture.  And now?  A massive blur?

It is comical in a way.  Germans often have this view of things and how they will work out.  In this case....I'm thinking alot of folks will be upset and disappointed over what happened to the idea of privacy.  They end up with a blur representation.

You can imagine Huns coming over from across the street.  His house is clear and crisp.  He wants to ask how come your house is so fuzzy.  You answer is that you opt'ed out.  Huns will stand there and drag this topic around, over and over.  Eventually, you will go back in the house and spend weeks mad and upset over the image of your house.  I suspect most home owners will now regret this decision.

Google probably took the appropriate measure.  A measured amount of blur, and then folks start to rethink their wisdom in accepting a blur.  Most folks just won't be able to handle the blur.

Comical in a way....if you think about this.  If you could just find an entire street of Germans who opt'ed out....and you could refer to it as "blur strasse".  That might stick with the neighborhood kids.

Two Different Jews

There's an interesting German article over at the London Telegraph today.

It may be a shocker to some....but Germany has quietly been funding a Jewisih rabbi training deal for a number of years.  This topic comes up because the Germans did a bit of thinking....and found that there are different kinds of Jews (yes, shocking, isn't it?).

They've discovered that the old fashioned type of Jew....the Orthodox type.....were just too difficult to get along with.  And those liberal rabbis, were the right variety that Germans could get along with.  Thus, the liberal rabbi training areas are the ones that get funded by the German government now.

For most Germans, no one really cares.  They are funding Islamic funding in German universities now, so why say anything critical about this topic?

I looked at the amount....over six million Euro ($7.5 dollars) and it's not a major sum of money anyway (compared to American stimulus values, you have to understand).  This money goes to support the 120,000 Jews left in Germany today.

This is a topic that I never thought much about.  You would think that most Jews would be anti-German anyway, but apparently this rebuilding effort within Germany is underway.  As for the different labels to attach to Jews?  The article suggests that the liberal Jewish crowd don't run around bringing up past history.  So I could understand why Germans of 2010 kinda like that mentality....and hate the continual mention from the Orthodox Jews about the 1930s.

Let's be honest, it's Germany's money....and if they wanted to fund clown schools in Saarbrucken....they'd do it.  They can pick the liberal guys over the Orthodox guys, and never feel bad about it.  The only folks who ever feel bad about funding anything?  The taxpayer.  And they aren't allowed to speak in any case.

The Brake-pad Grant

I noticed an interesting story today.....involving the Bahn (Germany's train company).

The German government is going to provide a grant of 7.5 million Euro (roughly ten million dollars) to put low-noise brakes on freight cars.  For a number of years...passenger cars had the feature already, but the Bahn had been kinda cheap and just kept waiting.

It's true, they were likely waiting for a government grant or hand-out....but they waited long enough that people had complained in small towns and villages over the freight cars that came through and made too much noise.  

The truth is that if you lived within 500 feet and some freight train came through and hit their brakes....you could hear it easily.  People could tell the difference between passenger and freight trains. I'm guessing by the end of 2011....you won't be able to tell the difference, and a number of folks will toss out a negative opinion of the Bahn.

But don't worry....they've still got at least a dozen complaints to lodge with Bahn trains or operations.