Tuesday, March 26, 2013

Cyprus: Day Nine (Tuesday)

Monday came and went.....with the script for an ending still mostly unknown.

The banks now say that they will be closed until Thursday morning.  So the ATM mechanism is the only thing keeping the isle alive.  According to various news sources....cash is the only thing keeping any hint of civilization alive right now.

The government has announced that they are appointing some investigators to find out who did what, and apparently bring a few folks to a "show-trial" (my term for whatever comes out of this). Someone will ask some questions over who authorized the purchase of the Greek bonds, and why such a massive amount of investment money was spent on these.  My humble guess is that the bankers will point back to some governmental pressure (maybe the former Communist president of Cyprus who left the government in the last couple of months).  The end result is someone going through a public court forum, and then being carried off to three or four years of prison.  At best, you won't see more than a couple of individuals tried.

The Russians?  They've been a bit more careful in the words over the past twenty-four hours.  The problem is that when things finally settle....every Russian with money still left will want to remove the cash, and they don't want a bunch of stumbling blocks in their way.  The idea is to have a friendly EU deal, and maybe even find another European country with decent banking situations to move the cash into.

Long-term survival of Cyprus?  It may take a year.....maybe even two years....but every Russian will likely remove the cash they have left and just depart the island.  Whatever big growth they had....is gone for the foreseeable future.

There's a comment or two from the Cyprus Mail over the social media connection with this crisis.  Cypriots have used the forum to voice feelings.

The Cyprus Mail even mentions the church folks are also on the losing end of the mess....with at least 100 million Euro lost as the big accounts are taxed.

As for Tuesday?  I think you can see the end of the tunnel here.  Banks ought to open on Thursday, with some drastic limits in effect.  A common citizen probably will be able to walk in and ask for 500 Euro and easily get it.  If you wanted to close your account?  Forget it.....I don't think anyone will be allowed to do this.  On the positive side, at least you will be able to back to credit cards, and pay for fuel and groceries with this method.

By Saturday, most of the international media on the isle will have packed up and been ordered to go back home because the story is mostly finished.

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