Elon and the EU 'Fight' To Come

 The EU's warning to Elon Musk today over Twitter....'you best go back to the old ways of moderation and controlling content, or we will forbid you access to the EU'.  

What'll happen?  Well....I think that Elon will make some witty comment that the EU's version of moderation and the general definition of censorship....might lead down the same path.  Then he'll mention....did you know before I bought Twitter....that they were manipulating data, commentary, etc....to bend elections this way or that way?  Then he'll gaze at the French....the Germans and various other EU members, and ask them....did you appreciate the way that Twitter's old management handled your elections?  

He might even bring up confidential meetings where this party met with Twitter engineers.....to get the right brand for the elections out.  

Yeah, there's going to be tension, and denial.  

Then, the EU will go and say you need to do this by such-and-such day (probably mid-December).

Around five days prior to this....Elon is going to forbid entry to Twitter and close down the shops throughout the EU....mostly saying they will discover a Pandora's Box now infesting their reality.

The 7.5-million Twitter users in Germany?  VPN.....all the way baby.  

As much as the Germans and the EU think they can control things....VPN puts them into the same category as the Chinese government.  

So, settle back and prepare for one of the finest soap operas in recent history.  Everyone (even 10-year old kids) will have VPN services and accusations of Chinese-like management will become a daily thing.

My Humble Thoughts On Long-Covid

 We are almost three years into the Covid era, and to this date....no one (within Germany, the EU, the US, etc) has a answer for the cause, effect, and cure of long-Covid.

Course, I don't think radical amounts of funding has been put into this, and with some university elements developing research.....it's hit-and-miss.  

The odd parts leading into this?  I sat and watched a German documentary piece two months ago, where they had several folks (Germans) who had NOT had Covid (the virus) but had the vaccinations, and that triggered a long-Covid problem.  Most of the long-Covid crowd?  If you believed their data....vast majority were from the virus....not the vaccination.  

Some of these folks were marathon-type athletes.  Some were couch-people.  Some were over-weight.  Some were slim-Jim-types.  Most of their data suggests 3 women to each two guys....have long-Covid.  

The one thing that you do notice.....there are those who go through a long month of rebuilding themselves after Covid, and they aren't quiet in the same bucket as the other crowd....who suffer for months from long-Covid.  The short-long-Covid people?  They remind me of the after-affects of pneumonia (something I had as a kid, and readily remember an entire month of feeling weak after recovery).

Why the women get higher numbers here?  Unknown, and it ought be simple to connect the dots and find physical elements, diet practices, or some habit that guys aren't into.

The fact that some long-Covid people have lost brain 'speed'?  Thats probably the biggest worry in my mind.  If you wasted four years of your life in some university, and now a decade later....find yourself suffering from long-Covid, and that college business is now worthless....it'd bother me a great deal.

So I end this with a view of the future.  If Covid lingers on....say for 20 years, and you end up with 10-percent of German society permanently disabled with long-Covid because of this....the system can't support that many people in the 'equation'.  Maybe it's not a high priority on funding, but you really don't have time or resources to waste.  

Shooting Story Near End

 I essayed a good bit back at the end of January...about the murder of two police members....in the Kusel area (Pfalz). 

Brief summary.  Somewhere around 3 AM....in the midst of a rural area....a patrol car came around a curve....to find a vehicle sitting there, and what appeared to be poachers (two guys).  One of the poachers reacted in the face-to-face confrontation....shooting the cops in cold blood.   Guilty party was hunted down, and arrested.

The case?  Now wrapping up.  Various charges existing.

The defense in this case?  Well....they've tried to lay out the entire life of this one single hunter was centered on a massive amount of poaching.  It wasn't a simple hunting season with two or three deer.....he was hunting deer and wild boar just about every single day of the year.  In his mind, he couldn't be arrested for poaching or have his gun license revoked.

The second guy in this whole mess?  If you view social media and news reports.....he was mostly a regular cannabis smoker, with no real aggressive behavior.  He was mostly there to make some extra cash for his marginal lifestyle.  Most of the assault/murder charges against him have been dropped.  He'll be convicted on poaching charges and likely spend some short period in jail.

The main guy?  I don't see how he avoids going off for the rest of his life.

What bothers most Germans about the whole thing?  As the unraveling of the story occurs....it's just a ton of poaching crimes going on....week after week, and no one really noticed much of anything.  The restaurant trade?  Somehow, they just looked the other way...paying cash for deer/wild boar.

UPDATE:  Guy gets life in prison, no chance of parole. 

Looking Back Over 2022

 It's been an odd year.  Observations:

1.  Up to this point, I've been approached in Wiesbaden....either in the shopping district or in actual grocery stores....around 30 times by beggars.  It's something that would have never happened in 2002.  

Last night....in the middle of a major grocery store in town....came a beggar gal (non-German).  I simply shake my head and utter 'nein'.  If you asked me the balance, I'd say fewer than 25-percent are German....the rest are people that I suspect are undeclared migrants.  If you declare yourself, then you run the risk of failing the asylum application.  

2.  The end of hype over Covid masking-up in stores.

From late-spring 2020....to around March of this year....masks were continually hyped-up over Covid.  Then....it just dropped like a rock.  You still wear masks on buses and trains, but it's just odd how everyone fell into this habit, and then fell out of the habit.  I would take a guess around grocery stores....probably 15-percent of people still mask-up.

3.  The use of this 9-Euro a month train/bus 'pass'.

I think for a fair segment out of society....they got 'hooked' onto the 'pass'....like a binge thing with drugs.  

They all want a ultra cheap ticket....never realizing that the fed folks have to deposit several billion in tax revenue....to make the cheap ticket work.

4.  For about six years....waiting in anticipation for the Qatar World Cup games....which required shifting five months into the Christmas season....we finally arrive at reality.  There just isn't that much interest going on for the games, the results, or viewership.  

The ton of money that pub owners traditionally took home for the games every four years?  It's missing.

5.  The war.  This whole Russia-Ukraine goes beyond the imagination of Germans.  Just to suggest it's about some Nazi-crazed folks running around.....amuses people and is like some one-star script for bad movie.

On accepting Ukrainians as war-refugees?  This has shocked a fair number of Germans....just basic acceptance and no negative hype like you saw in 2015/2016.  Oh, they admit housing issues, and a cost factor is existing.  

6.  The ultra-dry season.  In a normal year (at least here in the Rhine Valley)....over a hundred-odd summer days....you'd have five to ten light rain periods.  2022?  There was probably two days with a 30-minute period of light rain.  For close to 12 weeks....I didn't have to mow my grass.  

7.  Inflation comes up almost daily.  You stop in some shop for a espresso and slice of cheesecake.....getting the bill, and kinda shaken up that you are paying 60 cents more than you did a year ago.  

Grocery-shopping with the wife?  I now get lectured at least four times on every single trip....such-and-such went up 10-cents....50-cents....or a Euro.  

8.  I'm utterly shocked at how many American politicians are known by name/face by the German intellectual society.  If you asked a thousand Germans on the street to name one single German judge on the Constitutional Court....they can't name name a single one. 

There must be at least two hours each week of American-dose political news on German public TV.  

9.  Germans started to wake up and realize....well....yeah, there is propaganda going on in our midst.  It's not just the evil Russians, or the evil Brits, or the evil FIFA management folks, or the evil whatever.

Now, everyone is running around and trying to help you by moderating everything....so you don't fall for any propaganda.  It's almost like propaganda against propaganda.  

10.  It is utterly shocking how everyone has reset their heat temperatures in the house, and accept 18 or 19 C....as 'normal'....in order to save on heating cost.  People talk about their discomfort, or share their heat woes story....like a tragic Greek opera. 

Power Survey

 The Civey research folks went and did a poll.....with Germans and their anticipation of black-outs.

Around half of those polled....say they dread black-outs.

Around 38-percent of them polled....say they FEAR black-outs.  They didn't use the word 'worry' or 'fret'....they actually suggested the word 'fear'.

I paused over it. 

In all my years around Germany....the longest that the power has ever gone out was about ten hours (big storm, lot of lightning, whole district was hit hard).  I didn't think of it as a big deal....although my German wife got hyped up over potential loss of food in the freezer.  

In my Panama period....in the rainy season...you got used to two or three 90-minute outages every month.  

Here in the past five years?  There's probably been two outages here in Wiesbaden....lasting 60 minutes or less each time.  People get used to stable electricity, and expect it to always be there.

Maybe I will fret a bit after the first 36-hour outage....but I'm shaking my head over how it'll get this bad.  

What's the Bathrobe Scandal All About?

 Well....from Qatar's World Cup coverage....ZDF (Channel Two) had a sports analyst (Sandro Wagner)....who uttered some comment about the crowd in Qatar...in 'bathrobes' (meaning Arab traditional robes).

Maybe he was sarcastic or laying down some 1-star humor, but this triggered a massive negative reaction.

Whole lot of chatter....the guy is a bigot.  The network should fire the guy.  ZDF needs to formerly apologize.  So on and so on.  

It's the type of comment you'd hear about the way that Bavarians dress....or the way that English people dress.

Basically, as crappy as the games have gone so far....it's probably one of the five highlights of the German series so far, and that's pretty sad to admit.  

Q-and-A

 1.  Did Germany and Qatar reach a LNG (liquid natural gas) deal?

Yes, announced today....2-million tons per year, for 15 years.  

HOWEVER, this deal starts in 2026 (not in 2023).  So the value of this helping for the crisis is minimal.  

2.  Big meeting for the state and federal Transportation Ministers today?

Yes, and the 49-Euro ticket is topic number one.  The gut feeling is that if the federal government of Germany doesn't toss near 2-billion Euro into the pot.....the only way that the 49-Euro ticket (per month) makes sense....is by cutting rural transportation routes.  

Irking the rural population of Germany?  OH YEAH.

3.  Wolves expanding in Germany?

What the National Agency for Nature Conservation says....there are around 160 wolf 'packs' in Germany....on a graphic chart....expanding each year.  Naturally, farmers are reporting more attacks on their livestock.

Four German News Stories

 1.  Off Focus this AM....little story of the property tax reform, and how it relates to a guy who owns a garden property (orchard).  Normally, his property tax per year is 198 Euro....under the reform, the state government has assigned 2,500 Euro as the property tax.

Logic to this?  If you own a small piece of land used mostly as garden property, but it could be utilized as a home property....the states are eyeballing the actual 'real' value.  

It'll be challenged but I suspect tens of thousands of garden properties will be like this, and be handed back to the states (people won't be able to afford 2,000 to 2,500 Euro a year for the property tax).

2.  WELT had a piece this AM....talking about a poll that shows almost one-third of German society believes the political system is 'broken' and they want referendums.  I doubt seriously that the Bundestag would go and allow this to occur.

3.  The EU has come out with a new 'agenda'.....trying to 'strengthen' the news media apparatus.  Countries opposing this?  Poland, Hungary, and oddly enough....Germany.  

Actual wording of what the EU wants to do?  "The proposed Regulation includes, among others, safeguards against political interference in editorial decisions and against surveillance. It puts a focus on the independence and stable funding of public service media as well as on the transparency of media ownership and of the allocation of state advertising. It also sets out measures to protect independence of editors and disclose conflicts of interest. Finally, the Act will address the issue of media concentrations and create a new independent European Board for Media Services, comprised of national media authorities."

What might be freaking the Germans out?  This comment of 'allocation'  of state advertising.  I'm just guessing that various tools are used to fund newspapers, and probably even public TV news. 

As long as the three oppose the act?  Well....it won't advance.  If you were asking me if it's odd that German would oppose this?  Yeah....pretty odd.

4.  Lot of chatter/speculation going on....about electrical prices.  Just in general....in some situations, it'll got 300-percent up.  

My Opinion Of Giving Ukraine Rockets With Range To Hit IN Russia

 There's chatter going on that the US might hand over some type of rockets with extended range....meaning they'd go into Russia itself.

On the list of a hundred really stupid ideas.....this is near the top.

I do agree....if you wanted to really put a significant problem on the Russian economy....start knocking out their power plants on Russian soil.  But the whole campaign would have to be escalated to levels where massive destruction (like dropping a hundred bombs on Kiev) was a daily thing.

It's like the other idea that I saw over the weekend.....putting NATO air defense into the far western sector of the Ukraine (Poland was asking for this to be done).  Again, it just invites more escalation.

Four German News Stories

1.  Odd piece....this past summer, the SPD Party held a get-together (drinks, food, etc)....for party members only.

Somewhere in the mix.....about ten German SPD females got a bit dopey and some kind of medical emergency was declared.  Doctors later said that the ten were given some type of knock-out drops.

The Party opened up a criminal investigation.  This morning.....they ended it....saying no one can be determined for the crime.

2.  All this chatter from 2021 over how the political parties were going to resolve the great housing shortage crisis in Germany? 

Well....ARD ran a piece this morning...noting that cost levels have risen drastically and a number of discussed projects are now abandoned.  At best....maybe 30-percent of the total projects on the board at the end of 2021....will continue on. The rest?  Discontinued.  Housing crisis will continue.

3.  All this chatter in recent weeks of a new tax on wealthy Germans?  Within the coalition....the FDP Party said 'no'.  The tax idea is now very unlikely to occur.

4.  German Army search for ammo to buy (real shortage reported)....leading to an element in producing....which apparently is rare to find...in China.  Things in working a deal...aren't progressing.  

You can laugh about this....but they have probably enough rounds to wage a week's worth of war, and unless they find another country with  the element....things are screwed.

Jail Story

 I noticed this off the AM news of SWR (SW Germany public TV network).  The police union (DPolG) has spoke up to the idea of heavy detention for the 'Last Generation' environmental activists.  

What the police are suggesting....if things don't simmer down any....is that upon arrest for some unauthorized protest....you'd be staying in the jail until a court session occurred.  Typically, upon an arrest....you get a firm notice of a future date in court, and then released.  

The reaction of the environmental activists?  Well....right away, they said it'd have zero affect on their mission in life.  

I sat and thought about it.

Getting arrested (normally in Germany)....usually means your court session doesn't occur for a minimum of two months.  Back in the 2016 to 2018 period....with migrants taking up a lot of court challenge time because of deportation orders....regular cases were extending out to eight to twelve months before you could get your 'day' in court.  

Just my humble opinion....but staying in a German jail for two or three months....probably won't improve my mental state or well-being.  There won't be any pizza, streaming video, or beer.  

These activists sitting there for an extended period?  I think they'd get more intense or hard-core in their frustrations.  Judges wanting to resolve this?  The general public feeling isn't that supportive of the activists at this point.  

In the end, I suspect by mid-2023....a state or two in Germany will finally say 'enough', and start the long-term detention of the activists.  Then things will get extremely heated over this treatment.  

A Funny Chat Over The 49-Euro Monthly Bahn Ticket

 So to lay this out.....lot of hype by Germans to get this 49-Euro a month train/bus ticket in place.  If you live in Hamburg, Frankfurt or Stuttgart....maximum interest is going on.  If you live in some rural region....marginal to zero interest.

Early this AM....N-TV had a piece and talked one big detail of the ticket (yet to happen, and probably won't happen in January or February of 2023)....who will foot the 'bill'?

Deutsche Bahn (who runs the national network) has come up to say that there's a ton of cash missing from their 'bucket' to run the normal network of trains....if you go to a 49-Euro monthly fee.  So they want the fed folks to ante up some serious cash.  Minimum?  1.65 Billion Euro.  

If the fed folks refuse this?  The Bahn folks say they will start to trim services....probably starting in the rural regions because it simply costs more to run a network with few passengers.  

This ticket turning into a serious money issue?  I'd suggest that.  Here's the other factor as well....how long can you go with a 49-Euro monthly ticket?  A year max? I'm likely to predict the ticket going to 55-Euro per month by the end of 2024.  

Five German News Stories

 1.  Focus had a piece this AM....suggesting that Putin is bringing in another 120,000 reservists by spring (trained and armed), for a major front attempt.

BS-factor?  I'd give it a '4'.  The Russian reality of boot-camp, and infantry school?  About two weeks.  I question if they have the rifles to hand the incoming crew.  As for a new front attempt....you'd have to have a significant logistics capability, which Russian has proven over and over....they can't do it.  Tank support?  The numbers are not there because of the losses.  Same issue going on for helicopters and artillery weapons. 

Putin may think he's hustling up another 120k men and a front will be active....but it's mostly just an open pit to dump manpower into and lessen the economy.

2.  Fairly negative feeling in Germany over today's World Cup game (against Spain).  If they lose.....the Germans have one more game, but will likely come home after it.  

If you compared World Cup 'fever' from four years ago to now (scale of 1 to 10)?  I'd say this year....Germans are only up to around a '5'.  

3.  Odd protest out of Leipzig yesterday.....somewhere between 500 and 900 (differing opinions because several protest groups merged)....mostly against US military in Germany.  

Yes, right-wing protests, with anti-American theme.  

Cops were out in force (1,400 of them) to handle the protest action.  Because of resistance and assault against the police.....a number of people were detained.

Counter-protest groups?  Yeah, and that seemed make a fairly confusing day in Leipzig.

4.  Regional gov't here in Hessen has evaluated the suggestion of Chinese police being stationed here in Frankfurt.  So far, no facts to support the story.

I talked about this a month ago.....how the belief that a office exists in Frankfurt, under the Chinese government.....with police as part of the manpower.  At least that was how the story goes.

BS?  Maybe at some point, there might have been such a office, but obviously now....no, there is no office. 

Odds of some undercover....secretive Chinese police unit in Germany?  I just give it marginal odds.  You'd have to go to a lot of trouble, and Germany does a decent job of monitoring who enters the country and for how long.  Course, if you entered from elsewhere and just drove in.....you might get away with it.  

5.  Current German electrical cost per KwH?  Around .40 Euro cents.  This time last year?  It was about .32 Euro cents.  I should note...it was close to .56 cents going back three months ago.  

If I Were Planning Ukraine's Defense?

 With chatter of some Russian offense going on....I'd go and secretly ask the EU to provide 40,000 pallets of booze.  Not the lousy 20-proof stuff....but the 60-proof stuff.  

Then I'd prepare to disperse the stuff....into the arms of invading Russians, and expect them to halt the battle and binge-out on booze.  Three hours later, I'd have my forces ready to take on a bunch of drunk Russians.  Causality rate?  Probably 90-percent of the Russian force would be gone within six hours.  

The cost to the Europeans?  Well...just plain cheapo 60-proof stuff, without taxation...would be around 7 Euro a bottle.  Lot cheaper than missiles, bullets, or bombs.

Those 'Evil' European Female Leaders

 Kind of comical but worth a review off Focus this AM.

So, one of the propaganda folks from Russian state-TV....got onto a topic last night....that various female leaders (von der Leyen - EU, Foreign Minister for Germany, the PM for Estonia, the PM for Finland) are on some aggressive front to trigger a war with 'mother-Russia'.

'Rude social behavior' gets uttered.

Somehow, he even uses Liz Truss (yeah, you remember the four-week PM for the UK).

The one thing you notice....women in Russia don't rise to any noted jobs except the Economics Minister.  

On my propaganda value scale (1-to-10)....I give it a '3' at best.  Some Russians will hype it up and get panic-feelings over this many women in charge of things.   

Can People Generally Recognize Propaganda?

 It's a curious  question to ask in 2022.  If this were 1970s....I'd say most of society would have a automatic sense to accept what the government or major news organizations said....as 'true'.  In today's world?  Skepticism is a major part of our lives, and trust just isn't the same as it was in the 1970s.

This week, I sat and watched a Russian piece (video) where Putin met up with mothers of soldiers deployed.  It just seemed odd.  About 24 hours later, several of the mothers were identified as members of the government or just plain actors.  Whole thing....was staged.

I noticed this week that Deutsche Welle went out and did a fact-check of the word....'Ukrainian Nazis'.  The question was....is any part of this Putin accusation true?  Why drag this up?  Well....in the eastern part of Germany....there's probably 25-percent of the population who believes some element of the Ukrainian Nazi story. 

I also noticed this past week that Russia declared a whole bunch of gay-propaganda to exist, and gave various examples of that.  

Meta (formerly Facebook) got into the news this week.....accusing the US military of setting up propaganda-creation situations.  Some elements of the accusation appear legit.  

So I come to this observation.....if you were around in 1970....you probably got a dose of once or twice a week of propaganda, and you could handle that.  Today?  I would imagine in a 24-hour day....a normal guy is probably getting a minimum of forty bits of propaganda....some relating to governments or political agendas....some relating to banks or finance.....some relating to Hollywood or sports.  

Maybe if you had time...you could associate things into a category, but the pace of things is making this an impossible task.  So your only 'weapon' is your skeptical nature and just identifying all of the crap as bogus propaganda.  

Five German News Stories

 1.  Really weird Russia-war story brewing over at Focus.  The story goes....that in 2021, Putin had this plan drawn up to start a war with Japan. BS-factor?  I'd actually give it a '6'....thinking Putin might be under some weird influence and ill health....to dream up a crappy idea like this.

You can read the story here.

The odd part?  Well....the idea was to say Japan had a bunch of 'Nazi-like' people running the country, and Russia would downsize the threat.

How far they got into planning this?  Back in August of 2021.....the FSB put up a report of Russians/Soviets.....being tortured by the Japanese military in WW II.

Fairly stupid?  Well....based on treaties, any attack on Japan....triggers a US response, and this would have been a mess for Putin to control things.  I suspect that Putin was talked out of this 'war'  and into a Ukraine situation.  

2.  Someone did a poll to ask....if Germans wanted Merkel back as Chancellor.  Only around 23-percent said 'yes'.  WELT reports this in the AM today.

I think you could have asked around in 2017, and found that fewer than 40-percent were happy that she was running again.  

3.  Rule changes on getting citizenship in Germany?  Well....the SPD-led gov't is talking about a serious rule change on 'time'.  Rule currently says if you have a visa and make it to the 8th year, then you can apply for citizenship.  SPD-gov't says it ought to be five years. There is some chatter that a 3-year path is open for discussion.

All of this leading back to a discussion over dual-citizenships?  Yes.

A 'hot' priority?  The belief is that eight years of 'waiting' makes little sense.  

4.  Some chatter that the 'Last Generation' activists might be on a pause right now?  Yes, and it would appear that the illegal entry into the Berlin Airport might be the last straw where regional gov't officials take serious action.  

At some point, there's some folks who will get dragged into court and face multiple years in prison.

5.  German Army now admitting that money isn't the issue in finding more ammo for requirements.....there's simply fewer companies offering sales.  The armaments industry is going to have direct talks with the SPD-coalition.

If you were asking me about this.....the companies want long-term contracts in place....something that previous German governments weren't willing to approve.  

Covid Chatter

 Is Covid diminishing in Germany?  If you look at the 7-day infection rate.....yes.  However, I will point this odd problem.

For about 18 months, the federal gov't paid for testing.  Back in early spring of 2022....they halted that supplemental testing business.  If you want a test.....you pay for it yourself (in the 10 to 15 Euro range).  If the cheapo test is positive, then the PCR test is applied, and it's free by the governmental deal.  

Well...you can't say that people are actually going down to test themselves.....if they have symptoms.  

My humble guess is of every hundred people with symptoms....probably only 40 of them will be tested (via the cheapo test) and some of those will get a negative result (because of the cheap tests).

So I have doubts that the governmental numbers are that correct.

On deaths?  The city reports the cases daily, with age and health condition of the individual who passed on.  

What you generally see now is a significant effort to downplay the virus, and move ahead.  

TV From Last Night

 Last night, via RTL, they ran a episode of #Why.  Topic?  "Rage on the street - is our democracy in danger?"

Show assembled by Sophie Maier....mostly suggesting massive right wing demonstrations in Germany being 'normal' now and a threat to democracy (at least in Germany).

I do agree....way more demonstrations in Germany now (rage mindset is hyped up) but it involves both left and right wing topics.  

Some of this is purely agenda 'garbage'....some relates to some outside influence (going past the German border)....some relates to propaganda (left and right)....and some to internet 'tools' which provide access to society (something you didn't have 30 years ago)..

My humble belief?  I'd imagine that 10-percent of German society today (even teenagers) are hinged on some form of rage (bitterness or obsession work just as well).  

The skill of German public TV to counter this era of resentment or irritation?  The public forum situation might have worked well ten to twenty years ago.....but in the new world....it's not able to convince people of 'change'.

Worth a review of #Why if you can find it.

Five German News Stories

 1.  Yesterday, at the Berlin Airport (BER)....the 'Last Generation' environmental activists cut the fence....broached the security area, and went to the glue-game again.

Police arrived and arrested them....while some flights were delayed in this process.

My humble opinion....this is probably the point where the prosecution folks and judges say 'enough' and assign significant fines, with jail-time.

2.  WELT had a piece on the approaching 'new' world where ATM machines might not exist.  Over past six year, around 3,800 less cash machines around Germany.  

Just in my village....around a dozen commerce sites, and with one exception....they all have card-swipe machines.  Most all bakery operations have gone to swipe situations.

3.  Focus had a piece this AM talking over Putin and Russia.  There is a suggestion there that Putin wants to have 1-million men in uniform, for the war, by early spring.  

4.  The FIFA folks (world soccer body) are supposed to meet next March (2023) and have a vote to keep the 'boss' (Infantino) around.  There wasn't supposed to be any competition on this matter.  N-TV news had a piece and says that there's a lot of discontent in Europe, and at least person's name will be put up to replace Infantino.

5.  I ended up at a local Wiesbaden restaurant for Thanksgiving dinner last night.  I have to admit, they did a 5-star job.  Total cost for 2 people, with wine/water included....around 86 Euro.  'Weinhaus Sinz' is the place, and I'd highly recommend it for 2023's Thanksgiving.  One suggestion....make a reservation at least two months ahead of time.....place was packed. 

Will Reverse-BREXIT Occur?

 Based on recent events in the UK, there's a big discussion going on...to admit that BREXIT (as originally designed)....has failed, and a large segment (polling says between 55 to 60 percent of the public want it reversed) wants a entry into the EU.

The choices?  Well....the majority of Brits want a Swiss-type membership, which means trade can occur, and limited interaction with EU rules.  Would the EU accept that?  My guess....a major player in the EU roles (Germany) would say no, and demand full membership or nothing.  Talking Brit society in full membership again?  I'd have my doubts that you could get 50-percent or more in a vote.

All of this talk tied to a economic problem?  There's no doubt that the UK economy is currently at a crappy stage and the conservatives will likely have another PM to fail by mid-2023.  Adding to this misery.....Germany is set for a dismal 2023, and isn't in a position to make many demands upon the rest of the EU.

While all of this is going on....there's also a problem brewing where a fair sum of Brits (maybe up into the 35-percent range) are fed up with all of the current political parties, and want a transformation.  

Polling telling a story?  You can review various polls from the past couple of months, and it's confusing.  People will list out criticisms and a vast majority are fed-up.  On the other hand, you can't make a case that either of the two primary parties....are serving solutions that the majority desire.

A reverse-BREXIT to occur in 2023?  I'd say no....but the EU might be in some position in 2024....needing better economic numbers, and maybe a new government in the UK could deliver that and interest the EU with their numbers.

This Twitter-German Court Case

 What this court case amounts to?

Some tweets popped up over the Anti-Semitism Commissioner of Baden-Württemberg (Michael Blume). I'll just say they suggested a fake story of the guy and a affair with a teenage girl.

The tweets were identified to Twitter and demands were made to take them down....failing on the time allotted.  One added demand put to Twitter....which makes a bold request....the party didn't want any screen-shots of the fake story to exist, and that's practically impossible to control or hinder.  

The court is trying to determine if true, and how to handle the damage.  Full story here.

What I anticipate?  At some end-point, there's going to be a fine of millions (maybe extending past 20-million)....course, most of this going to the gov't (not this Commissioner).

I expect at that point....Twitter will shut off Germany entirely from access, and within weeks....the EU gets into this....with their access also shut-off.  Everyone will seem proud of their accomplishments, and will be unable to see anything off Twitter.

However.....if you operate a VPN....you will still have access.  And there will simply be several million Germans who sign up for VPN services, and Twitter discussions will linger on.  

Some teenage German kid will invent a word to discuss how stupid the legal system has become in Germany, and within a year....more Germans than ever....will have Twitter accounts.

Soccer Hype

 Lot of hype/criticism over the German soccer club losing to Japan in Qatar (World Cup).  

The other layer of hype is the gay criticism stuff....which has now popped up for the public forum shows on ARD/ZDF.  

Based on viewership....I'd say most Germans have a marginalized view of the World Cup games....unlike any period since WW II.  Just odd.

Next game for Germany is Spain on Sunday, for which Spain is expected to beat Germany.  Last game is Costa Rica on Thursday of next week.  At that point, Germany would come 'home'.  Then we'd have to endear countless weeks of criticism over how such a great team fell apart, and if the coach should be dismissed. 

Five German News Stories

 1.  Watching RBB (Berlin public TV today)....polls started up for the forced new election for the city.  According to the polls....it'll be a more tight election, with the Greens, SPD and Linke Parties all pulling in the 20-to-22 percent range  each.

2.  N-TV talked over a Brit report this AM....saying these Kamikaze drone attacks in the Ukraine have ended.  The suggestion?  Russians used up all of the stock.

3  Kinda funny....World Cup game was on TV last night.  It should have taken bulk of viewing statistics.  ARD ran against....a comedy-krimi show called 'Die Kanazlei'.  It's mostly a show that the over 50 age group would watch (not material for the under 25 folks).  The krimi pulled in better numbers than World Cup soccer.  I doubt this has ever happened....in the history of German public TV.

4.  N-TV this AM talked about a real estate 'bubble' in Germany....that prices for properties (to sell) will drop by a minimum of 10-percent.

5.  I sat and watched some news story off N-TV news this AM.....hyping up the idea of buying re-treaded tires.  Currently....around 1-percent of German society does this.

An environmental thing?  Well....it came across this way.  

In my entire life....I've done this on one single occasion....tire shop offered up premium winter tires (retreaded)....for what would be 40-percent off the new price.  It's not something that tire shops are that interested in.....lesser profit in the end.  But they get the tires for free and simply pay a retread company for the situation....maybe they can find some retread company in Poland or Czech that does this cheaply.  

Q-and-A

 1.  This electrical and natural gas brake that the German government has invented....isn't it relieving you of the extra cost, but handing you the cost back via taxes?

Yeah, but lets not discuss that part.  Germans presently think someone else is paying for it, when it's really themselves.

2.  Crappy TV ratings for the World Cup via ZDF (Channel Two)?

From the very first game televised.....to last night....the ratings are dismal.  WELT had an entire article this morning talking about the lack of interest.  You could run Rambo I or some funny video show with dogs.....wouldn't matter....World Cup action would still be low.

3.  German police union calling for real jail time for climate activists?

Yeah, and while it lingers a while with judges/prosecutors trying to just skip out on this....the public is leaning toward what the police union says....it's official crime and not a protest action.  Remember, on private property, with the owners permission, protest can happen.  On public property, you can only protest with the permission of the police, and according to some plan that you sign.  

4.  WELT article today suggesting major reform of public TV has to occur?

Well....lot of hyped-up feelings (negative) about ARD/ZDF.  But this whole discussion of reform has been going on since the 1980s when commercial TV arrived in Germany. 

ARD doesn't want to handle the topic because there would be a major shift in manpower, and one of the two news bureaus...would probably go away completely.

5.  Another reservist call-up in Russia?

There's this rumor on N-TV news this morning in Germany.....suggesting that another activation will occur in January.  Numbers?  No one says much.

Here's the thing...you removed 300,000 men from the commercial world of Russia already....plus the dead folks from the previous episode.  It would not surprise me if we were talking about another 150,000.

6.  New tax being discussed?

Finance Ministry is talking about a excess profit tax for just energy companies.  If you make 100 Euro 'EXTRA' profit....you'd have to cough up 33-percent.  Legal?  It'd be challenged because you aimed it only at energy companies.  

Wouldn't they assemble added costs under a operational cost.....as fake costs?  Yeah, and that's really a big gamble for the government to go messing with them and have this fakeness created out of thin air.

On happening?  I'd give it a 75-percent chance of happening.  

Wiesbaden Christmas Market Opens Up

 I was there last night.....the grand opening of the Christmas Market.  Four observations:

1.  If you count gift cabins and food booths.....it's 50-percent of what existed in 2019 era.  Pretty sad in a way.

2.  I'd say fewer than 2-percent of the crowd was masked-up.  You could hear a cough or two.....here and there.  Covid was not a concern of those who attended.

3.  Police and security personnel were in abundance.  About every 20 minutes, you'd see a crew walk through.

4.  Everything costs more.  If you use the 2019 scale of things....I'd say most everything is a minimum of 50 cents higher....some even a 1.5 Euro higher.  

Recovering from the Covid era?  It'll take a minimum of a decade for things....I think....to get back to the way it was in 2019.  

Bavarian Covid Court Deal

 Federal Court in Germany came up today saying that the Covid rules that the state of Bavaria made in the spring of 2020....were disproportional, infective and without much legal standing.

Worth a read over at BR.

Basically, the state said at the time....you couldn't leave your apartment unless you had 'valid' reasons.

Judge even commented....walking out across your street...sitting at a bench....reading a book there....was illegal by the order given.  

The bigger comedy here?  Well....this enforcement occurred in the spring of 2020....so it's taken this long for judges to confer it was a stupid law. 

All This Qatar World Cup Chatter

I basically see three reasons to be hyped up and all stirred up (in a legit way) over this World Cup soccer stuff.

First, there's little doubt that a bunch of FIFA bigwigs got something for handing Qatar the World Cup.  Lot of people now grumbling about how this was done, and people probably can say something over this.

Second, moving the Cup to late November was BS.  I watched a German sports analyst last night on TV....going to a Koln sports bar and expecting people to be there....to watch the game.

Well....she walked in, and there were three people there.  One of the three was mostly reading the newspaper while sipping beer..

A chat with the bartender?  He grumbled....normally, he'd have forty chairs and a TV set up outside, with a hundred people inside and watching the TV there.  There's no interest.....Christmas season coming up, and there's no money to be made.  Guy even admits....in a normal Cup year....this four-week period would be 20-percent of his year's profits.  This time?  He's not ordered any extra beer, and expects this to be zero interest.

Third, you come to the amount of deaths in constructing the hotels and stadiums.  Some say a thousand.....some say several thousand.  Qatar management?  No comment.

This gay business?  To be honest, out of a hundred Germans....I doubt if more than 10-percent are stirred up by Qatar's anti-gay attitude.  

What's funny here....I sat in a clinic waiting room (American) today.....with the TV set to CNN, and at least 12 Qatar advertisements came on during a 45-minute period of me waiting.  Some for Qatar itself....some for Qatar hotels....some for Qatar Airlines.  

Five German News Stories

 1.  Front-page news for Germans....off the Russian state TV network.....some propaganda show from last night....mentioning that Germany is the chief target for nuclear attack.  

BS-factor?  '8', but the guy has to reassure the pro-Putin people watching that all enemies are on the watch list.  As for Germans?  Probably 5-percent of them are hyped-up and asking where the shelters are located.

2.  Hessen state (where I live) has a fund now set up.....one billion Euro to fix crappy schools.  Mostly to replace doors and windows....mold and mildew....unsafe conditions.  Surprising on the amount of poor conditions that now exist.  

3.  Christmas markets have started to open now this week across Germany.  Full-scale open....none of this half-open gimmicks of 2021 that Covid invoked.  Wiesbaden's market will open tonight.  

4.  Germany now offering to bring their Patriot system into Poland and ensure they are 'protected'.

5.  Some polling organization did a poll over support of the coalition (SPD, Greens and FDP).....finding that only 40 to 50 percent of Germans think the current group can survive to 2026 (the normal next fed election).  Suggesting a early vote will occur?  Not really, but I think if you asked if people would be shocked over an early vote....more than one-third would say absolutely not.  

Just Kinda Funny

 RBB (the sub-network under public TV giant ARD)....had to hire up a new boss....because of the one they fired.

So the salary of this director of the Berlin TV network?  295,000 Euro per year.

It came out today that the network also agreed to a salary deal....1,000 Euro a month, for a rent subsidy.  12,000 Euro a year on top of the salary?  Yeah.

First, I'll be honest, you can't find much of a two-bedroom apartment to rent in Berlin....in the upper-class....for less than 2,500 Euro.  Even just a downsized studio would run in the 1,300 Euro range.  I'm guessing in her style and needs....she's bumping up against 3,000 Euro a month. 

Maybe the 1,000 Euro a month is reasonable, for a boss of a network.

But a lot of people are viewing RBB as a crapped-out scandal plagued organization.  

German Heating Oil

 I saw this in the business news today....Tecson (the heating company) says the pricing has radically changed.

Back in May, to buy 100 liters of oil....it cost around 210 Euro.  A pretty fair sum.

Two months ago....the price was then around 150 Euro for 100 liters.

Right now...127 Euro will buy the 100 liters.  

Hit bottom?  No one says that.  Another month, it might hit near 1-to-1. 

Here's the thing.....if you went back two to three years.....1 liter was running around 50 cents.  It'll probably never go back to that level.  

What I would credit or blame this upon?  Marginal winter weather so far....and an over abundance of fuel oil out there.

The Coup Story

 I sat this morning watching Germany's N-TV news.  Chief topic that caught my eye?  German journalists have gathered up this oddball story, which my BS-meter pinged at a '5'.

Putin's personal guard....military folks....have taken up a training scenario which suggests a coup might happen and how they'd protect him and ensure the coup folks were taken down.

I pondered over this.  Prior to this war....they might have talked about this because it happened in the 1980s....but I doubt if they really had a plan on how it'd work.

My humble view?  They'd ensure Putin was protected....safeguarded....transported out of Moscow....to some secret military base about two hours east of Moscow (a bunker).  

The TV networks? I would imagine for a couple of hours....they'd shut down, and then get news out that Putin was ok (with prior filmed stock of him walking around sipping coffee or tea).

Where this idea came from?  Well....I would suggest insiders....his faithful Oligarch people, who think that various elements of the Russian military might not be stable.  

Why this came up now, and not six months ago?  There's been a fair number of military dead (some would suggest over 100,000).  Somewhere in the mix, there's probably a dozen commanders who don't see a end to the war in 2022, and doubt that a victory can ever come.  

Five German News Stories

 1.  World Cup started yesterday in Qatar.  Public TV in Germany featured the game and a lot of commentary. Stadium?  Well....based on the clip they aired, I'd say it was about 50-percent full (unusual for a opening game).  

2.  This hype in Germany about a lack of meat starting to occur in late spring 2023?  It's a realistic prediction....which all leads back to the high cost of natural gas.  If you want to fertilize your hay or grain fields, for the cattle or swine....you need natural gas.  With prices double and sometimes triple....farmers going to cut back on production.  

Even if you find pork in the grocery freezer....it'll probably be 50-to-100 percent higher than today.

3.  Anne Will public chat program from last night....topic?  'Last Generation' protest kids.

The German chief prosecutor said it in a blunt way......state and city governments are not making an effort to fully prosecute absolute violations of law....breaking their commitment to the Basic Law (the Constitution).

4.  German gov't admitted that this quickly erected LNG (liquid natural gas) terminal business...now complete....has cost 50-perccent more (figured this past weekend at a cost of 6 billion Euro).  

5.  Germany has worked up some deal for a massive energy project out of Morocco.  The chatty part of this....import of clean green energy.....having to travel across Spain and France....to reach Germany.  

The Problem With Conspiracy Theories?

 Once in a while, you are told a story, and your BS-meter alerts, and you categorize the story to be a conspiracy theory.  The problem is.....a week later....a month later...a year later.....it's not a conspiracy theory.

The best example I can give?

We were all told in the 1960s and 1970s....that some scientist had developed a machine to determine if you were gay.  It was occasionally brought up....people laughed over the idea, and it just lingered there as a conspiracy theory.

Well...the Canadian government did actually go out and hire a guy (Frank Robert Way) to build a device.  For roughly 20 years....it lingered around and was stamped as a governmental 'asset'.

Other than working like a lie-detector...it was a fairly bogus piece of equipment.  However.....it went from conspiracy theory....to reality. 

Putin's Mind

 Quote of the day:

“He (Putin) wants to drain the west not so much economically but emotionally.”

I noticed this in the AM....from the Russian Strategic Policy expert, Alexey Muraviev, who is a Curtin University Professor.

He says that the whole strategy now for Putin is simply there to buy time...figuring that public sentiment in Europe and the US will lessen over support with the Ukraine.

I pondered over this.  It's a crappy idea and it reminds one of how Soviet leaders were thinking in the 1950s/1960s.  They always felt economics were of zero value, and society would just survive....even in crappy times, without any consequences.

One might go and ask if Russian Reservists are that enthusiastic now over their little part of the war, and if public sentiment in Russia is draining faster than expected.

In some way, I don't think Putin is prepared for the role he intends to display at this point.  

Q-and-A

 1.  Are Germans masking up (Covid-style)?

No.  I'd say in general....about 20-percent of Germans will masks in public structures.  On buses/trains....it's mandated, but the minute you step out of these....the vast number of folks remove their masks.  

I was at the gym yesterday and noted the first person in 12 months....working out in a mask.  

2.  Protests going on with mask mandates on buses?

Well....the first occasion occurred yesterday, with some guy copying the Last Generation glue business.  The bus rider refused to mask up....then glued his hand to some bus rail.  

3.  In this forced new election in Berlin....will this include the Bundestag election as well?

Yeah, this is openly discussed.  Revamping the representation of the coalition is one problem here. 

No one is saying how many people will show up....if it equals the same number as in September 2021.  

Four German News Stories

 1.  The Last Generation protest from yesterday.....around Berlin?  Apparently they rented cars....drove to the site next to BER (the Berlin Airport) and glued themselves to the pavement.

The police came....viewed the situation, then cut the asphalt around their hands (glued to the pavement) then removed the protester with the pavement still attached.

The rental car company (Sixt)?  They say the group (around 8) are now on a do-not-rent list....for the rest of their lives.  I won't say this in all cases, but generally....all of the car rental companies share these lists, so these folks probably won't ever get a rental car ever again.

Charges?  There's probably several charges for each person.

2.  The RBB public TV scandal added another problem....they have to find 40-million Euro of savings over the next year or two.  In simple terms....cost production of each show they make on their own....will be added up.  So various productions will end, and they will have to have mostly re-runs in the end.

3.  Just an awful lot of chatter going on in Germany about the World Cup in Qatar....probably more than 50-percent negative at present.

4.  The operating company that runs the natural gas storage in Germany....says that it's very doubtful any shortage occurs this winter.  A warmer fall than usual....plays into this.

No Beer In Stadiums For World Cup: Qatar

 I think FIFA (the soccer organization) is trying to act surprised that the Qatar government suddenly made up a rule of zero beer in the stadiums for the World Cup.....but they probably expected this.

So, if you were a fan....spending $5,000 for airline tickets, hotel rooms, and a ticket or two for the games?  It won't kill you, but you will be grumbling over how this was handled.  

Beer in the hotels?  Yeah....at a cost of around 13 Euro for a half-liter cup.  

After the Cup ends....there's going to be a lot of discussion, and I would imagine it's the last Cup to be given to a Middle Eastern country.  

Does Ukraine Have To Win The War, To Get The Russians Off Their Soil?

 No.  

Every single day, there is a fraction of the Russian economy that is subtracted in some way.  Germans don't buy natural gas.  Russians can't travel internationally like they did before.  Various companies don't market their wares in Russia. The list goes on and on.  

In the first hundred days of the war, this fraction didn't really add up to be anything that the typical upper-class Russian would notice.  

When things reached the fall period, with the reservists activated, and near three-quarters of a million Russians exited the country (saying they won't return)....the fractions started to add up.

By this point, the losses of aircraft, tanks, and weapons add up.  You spent x-amount to reach this stage of the war.  You should have 'gains' or something to show for your efforts.  Russia has nothing to show. 

The dead Russians?  Generally, even if you use the fairly conservative numbers (discounting anything that the Kremlin says)....you can probably say around 100,000 Russians are either dead, or wounded enough to never be an asset for the Army. 

People who watch the nightly propaganda show on Russian state TV....in the past month....have noticed various moments where the economy in Russia has been brought up.  It's not very positive, and the GDP business is coming into focus now. 

I would suggest that Ukraine only has to drag this out, and the Russian economy will be the 'iceberg' to sink the ship.  

China looking at a ailing Russian economy?  China values trading partners and people that they can sell stuff to.  If Russians have marginal money....they don't buy Chinese stuff.  It's hard to see how this trade business continues on....like it was prior to the war.

The problem that Russian developed into over the past thirty years?  They bought into western technology....even to the level that you need certain technology to operate the natural gas and oil pipelines.

So just dragging this on...creates a weaker economy and a more dependent Russia in the end.  Ukraine doesn't have to win....just make the Russians economically weak.

Germany: Six News Stories: 18 November 2022

 1.  I sat and read through some propaganda-like material appearing in the German news.  They passed on this story....coming from Russians (not Ukrainians). 

So the story goes....around 400 Russian reservists reached a point where they refuse to fight.  Lot of conflicts here....basically, they get one meal a day....their uniforms are crap......no winter gear....no real medical attention.  So the 400 got taken (at gun-point) to the basement of some building in Ukraine....ordered to remove their clothing and hand over their cellphones.  One guy managed to keep his cellphone, and this story is unfolding in the Russian press.

BS-factor?  I have to give it a '7' but it could be potentially true.  

When you look at the Russian military establishment....in terms of supporting the guy on the ground, it's absolutely marginal.  The response from the political system....why would they baby-sit these people or waste money on them.  

2.  Focus piece this AM....suggests natural gas prices will jump in early January 2023 by 53-percent.  Electricity?  It's forecasted to jump potentially up 61-percent.  

3.  Another Focus item this AM.....just in general, the car parts industry in Germany is in a sour situation, with a parts shortage likely to occur.  They even went to suggest that Mercedes could be a candidate for bankruptcy if the trend continues.

4. The commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards....stated that Germany is the 'great Satan'.  

Some Germans will laugh it off....saying for 2,000 years....the region has been Satanish.  

5.  Wolfgang Schäuble, retired CDU Party player.....gave an interview yesterday.  Probably one of the three most respected German political people of the past twenty years.

Asked about the Russia problem (natural gas).....he responds "We didn't want to see it." 

In a sense, all these signs were there for twenty years, and they were always at a dependency situation.....having to believe that the Russians weren't that bad, when they were. 

6.  Snow forecasts?  If you gaze at the weekend prediction....top one-third of Germany will get some snowfall.  I do agree, for the central region, unusual amount of rainfall in the past three months, with moderate temperatures.  

Does A German Have A Right To Protest?

 Well....the Basic Law (the Constitution) says....that Article 8 of the Constitution....allows for 'freedom of assembly'.

The text?

(1) All Germans shall have the right to assemble peacefully and unarmed without prior notification or permission. 

 (2) In the case of outdoor assemblies, this right may be restricted by or pursuant to law.

Now....to the rough part of the text....the minute you talk about public property and demonstrations....various states have laws.

Once you say it's outdoors and in a public setting, you have to 'ask' permission.  The law indicates a minimum of 48 hours on asking this permission.  

The city or police having authority to deny the demonstration?  YES.

Denial can come because of public safety or public order.

Blocking roads?  In 99-percent of demonstration requests....the best you can do is say a demonstration parade will occur on x-street, with 500-odd people, starting at this time and ending at this time.  

Picking a main avenue into any city.....like Munich or Hamburg?  It'll never be approved.

Blocking an area near a train station?  It'll never be approved.  

So this environmental activist group with the glue business?  The local prosecutor and judges are simply treating them as kids, and hoping the end comes soon.  If not?  At some point.....far right-wing folks (Nazis) will figure that they can do the same type of demonstrations and get away with it.  And that's the point where reality comes into play for everyone.  

Five Things I've Noticed in 2022

 1.  At some point this year (in Germany), I went to a burger shop (I will avoid saying their name).....to get a burger, fries and Coke.  I opened the burger wrapper, and opened the bun to view the meat patty.  

It was about as thick as ten sheets of paper stacked....meaning there just wasn't that much meat there.  264 calories there, as they advertise?  I really doubt it.  It's probably closer to 180 calories.

2.  I watched some business interview back in the summer of a fairly noted entrepreneur (American, mid-30s).  He used a lot of catch phrases but on intelligence and business knowledge....he seemed like a 15-year old kid, still in high school.

This tends to beg the question....did his parents bribe the college to get him in, and then bribe to have some degree given to the guy?  

3.  I've heard the term 'money-laundering' probably mentioned in news reports, German public forums, or read it in business news.....at least 5,000 times this year.  Seems like an all-time record....so the question is.....are we in the midst of a epidemic?

4.  Every time you get some Ukrainian-held Russian POW interview....they seem to be looking burned-out, tired and seeming happy to be captured alive.

5  Soccer fans arriving in Qatar....discover that beer is possible at the hotel, but a plain semi-flat beer (.5-liter plastic cup) runs around 13 Euro.  Back home in Germany.....at Aldi (the grocery), you could get the really cheap stuff for 35 cents for a .5-liter can (adding the can deposit on top of that).  

Three Observations

 1.  A 'forever' war brewing with Russia and Ukraine?  

For Putin and whoever follows him, selling this 'Nazis-in-the-Ukraine' doesn't do much except promise a significant amount of GDP has to be spent on the war, and restocking when the war ends (if anytime in the next ten years). 

Russia would make the GDP (shorting public projects) if they were still selling oil, natural gas, and coal to Europe.  But they aren't selling presently.

Selling to non-European customers?  Maybe, but you need five to ten years to build the pipes to deliver the products.  The technology to do the pipes?  Mostly Europe and US made.....so that's not a favorable position.  The ships to bring in the customers?  They all require insurance and the big names are European or American. 

In short terms?  Russia, with Putin's fantasy....can't rate as any first or second tier country status.  The 'forever' war script is writing a pretty miserable period for the next forty years.

2  WELT today wrote a pretty damming piece over Deutsche Post (the mail service of Germany).  Lateness for letters and packages has become routine over the couple of years.

The meaning of late in Germany?  Typically, in the 1980s/1990s....if you mailed a letter by 5 PM on Monday....from any location in Germany, the letter got there by mid-afternoon on Wednesday.  Today?   I'd say it's hit and miss....with a third of the letters not arriving until Friday....perhaps even as late as Saturday.  

Chief reason?  I think Covid has restacked the outcome of mail movement in Germany.  I've actually had three days here in 2022....where no mail delivery guy operated because of illness and a shortage of employees.  

Fixing or resolving this?  Other than getting used to it.....nothing much.

3.  The 'head' of the German Office for the Protection of the Constitution (Germany's FBI) said today that the 'Last Generation' climate activists do not deserve review by his office.....as they are no more than criminals....not extremists.

One can laugh over the tone....there's no doubt in his mind, they are violating law and deserve some court time.  But he's not convinced they are in the standard like the old Red Army Faction.  

17 November 2022: Three German News Stories

 1.  Not really front-page news, but Colonel Vadim Boyko (Russian Navy)....number two guy at the Russian Pacific Fleet Naval Academy....was found dead in his office, dead from gunshots (plural) wounds.

So here's the thing....he was one of the key people brought in to organize the mobilization episode in Russia.  You can say it was a success or failure, but at least it was a plan.

Here's the other thing.....Four pistols were found there on the table in the office....the belief is that he fired five rounds into his chest....alone (suicide). At least, that's what the police are going to sign off on.  In the Columbo world....this would have been a six-hour murder mystery.

2.  On the Maischberger public forum show (last night), one of the guests (CDU Party guy) talked up on the 'Last Generation' activist protest theme, and compared them to soccer hooligans.  

If you went back twenty years ago, soccer hooligans were a big deal and they drifted around for several years as a major threat at various games in Germany.  He might have a valid point on his suggestion.  They do suck up tons of police and rescue service man-hours. 

3.  There is some debate still going on about the upcoming 49-Euro Bahn/Bus ticket....to start selling in January of 2023. The chief issue?  Well....for the various companies who provide public transportation....they need compensation.  It's not clear about the feds or the states....giving the money to make up for losses.

Germans And The Next Worry

 I sat and read through a WELT report today....Germans have a upsurge on 'panic-attacks' presently.  

In general, various numbers exist on society (not just Germans) to say 5-percent have fairly regular panic attacks, and that one out of three people will have at least one panic attack in their life.  

Describing a panic attack?  Well...it's fairly sudden for most folks....there's a serious amount of intense anxiety.....some people have the shakes....some feel disorientated...some get nauseated....some get rapid heartbeats....some get all sweaty, and some have dizzy spells.

What WELT points out....ever since Covid came along...more and more Germans have panic-attacks.  This is particularly noticed with young people.

A big deal?  I worked with a person who'd have one of these about every month.  I'd notice her gazing off....some shakes going on, and in a short period of time....getting nauseated.  After a few occasions, I'd suggest she go to a coffee room and sip some liquids.  Twenty minutes later, she'd have chilled out and recovered.

The big problem here....you really don't need one-third of society have an attack or two each week.  So I just kinda wonder how Covid stirred people up to feel this way, and if we've opened up some Pandora's Box.

The idea we might be consuming more caffeine, or drinking more booze?  Some suggest that.  Some folks even suggest that people can't chill out or relax to the extent that we did before Covid.  Some people go and suggest we huff up more cannabis than we did before Covid, and the drug affect is having some panic occur within our little world..  

Propaganda BS

 I noticed afternoon....reviewing Russian news/propaganda....that the Kremlin came out with a statement that this missile/rocket that hit in Poland (killing two)....had to have come from Germany.

I doubt that German public TV (ARD or ZDF) will mention it, and if they do....it'll be some blinking warning.....'ULTRA-PROPAGANDA'.  

The problem is.....in eastern Germany, there's probably two million German adults who view Russian TV in some form, and they will see this.....asking questions.  

How the Germans would have gotten the rockets?  Anyone's imagination.  But across Russia.....probably forty-million Russians believe the 'evil-Nazi' routine and the Germans could have done this. 

Berlin Election?

 What the Berlin Constitutional Court (for the state government of Berlin) said today?  The election from September 2021.....for city-state candidates....is TOTALLY invalid.

Yeah, shocker.

Things were fairly screwed up and the court simply said a new election must be held.  

Date?  Must be within 90 days....my humble guess it'll be early the first week of Feb 2023.

Why the mess?  Well....there weren't enough ballot papers around the city for the election.  On top of that.....it was held on a Sunday when a major marathon was held.....which created a lot of pedestrian traffic.  On top of that, some of the polling stations closed completely....forcing people to into a plan B situation.  

An embarrassment?  Yeah.....if you bring this up to locals....they mostly laugh and suggest it seems 'American-run'.  

Personally, I can't recall a mess like this.....where they threw out the results entirely (14 months later).

Change in the way the coalition is run?  Well.....you don't know after this election is done.  

The Three Sad Truths of Russia

1.  First, since the arrival of the Oligarch 'reality' (1990)....you can figure of every hundred Rubles destined for military infrastructure.....a minimum of 25-percent went into the pockets of the Oligarch folks....maybe even up to 50-percent.  

So you end up with a military that could take on NATO in 1990....to a military that cannot even handle the Ukraine in 2022.  

When all the smoke clears and the war ends?  You can presently assume that the Oligarch money path will continue, and the Russian military will just grow weaker.

2.  Presently, it's figured around 1-million Russians have left the country, and I might go to suggest that another 1-million will leave by early spring 2023.  These weren't welfare cases or dimwits....they were college graduate folks.  This was the crowd that you really couldn't afford to lose.

3.  As much as you want to believe in 'mother-Russia' as a Russian citizen....you have to be standing there and wondering just how Putin came up with this idea, and if there's any value to the 'Nazis in Ukraine' BS.   

16 November 2022: Five German News Stories

 1.  This Russian rocket that hit Przewodów, Poland?  From various German news sources, it landed in some field....killing two local folks.   The small town is about 7 miles from the Ukraine border.  

Russia denies it's their missile.  Any real proof from  where the anti-aircraft missile was fired?  No.  But this is drawing a lot of chatter from the Germans and Poles.

From my view of the news video....it hit some tractor pulling a wagon.  

As for what happens next?  I think that NATO will bring in a fair amount of radar gear and defensive measures.....beefing up the eastern border of Poland, and just pretend it was not intentional.  

2.  I sat and watched a business interview last night, with a German butcher.  He's gotten his latest price gouge on the electrical bill, and figures he'll have to downsize/lay-off people because he can't function with the cost escalation.  Note, he was a small-time operation with most all of the modern equipment.  He thinks....come early 2023....meat is going to go through the roof on prices.

3.  Germany hit 100-percent storage yesterday for natural gas.  If you go by the estimation, from a moderate to average winter.....there's enough natural gas to avoid talking about a shortage.  In a severe winter, there's enough to reach early March.  

4.  Lot of German hype in recent weeks over Musk taking over Twitter.

Some German politicians have left Twitter....to demonstrate their 'courage'..

From my view of the social media 'giant'?  Some VIPs (politcially) have left, but the bulk of society stayed.  To be honest, Instagram is a bigger German deal, with influencers at the heart of their operation.  Politicians trying to get their 'brand' or message out there via Instagram?  Their topics aren't the type to bring in viewers on the platform.  If you want news or dialog.....Twitter is it.

5.  France has announced that they will build 14 new nuke energy plants.  If you were waiting for German reaction.....well, it's not that positive.  But I think that the French have a potential customer in Germany, and they can set the prices for ample profit.  

Covid Chatter

 Starting Wednesday....in four German states (Hessen, Bavaria, Baden-Wuerttemberg, and Schlesweg-Holstein, IF you test positive for Covid.....you go back to work (no days off unless your doctor signs off).  HOWEVER, you have to wear a mask while outside the house (meaning on the street or anywhere).

Other states to follow in a matter of the next two weeks (the Pfalz is one of them).

If you live in a state other than these, and have to work in a Covid-friendly state?   It's not clear how this will be handled.  

Shocking?  I'd say comparing it to last year at this time.....it's amazing how accepting a case of Covid now is.  

Odd Soccer Development

 For those who don't know Erling Haaland....the Norwegian....he is one of the top ten soccer players in the world.  He's 22 years old, and currently a player for Manchester United.  

Next week....the World Cup business starts up and the UK top league is on six-week vacation status....because the UK players are in Qatar.

Haaland?  He's a Norwegian and thus....cannot play for the UK team.  

Norway?  They didn't make the cut for the World Cup.

So Haaland is mostly resting right now.

Ashton United....a third-league down club....isn't on this six-week vacation business.  So they came up and asked.....could Haaland come and play for them?  Yeah, mostly a joke, but one has to wonder....would Haaland look at this and ask Manchester's team if he could play a game or two for this minor club.  

If Haaland were to play?  That's probably a something that England fans would pay money to watch.  

What Is ARD-Plus?

 Well....ARD is the German national public TV network.....which is the basis of Channel One.  

A couple of years ago, ARD created what they call a 'media-library'.  You can log on and various movies/TV shows/documentaries can be seen....for a LIMITED period of time (usually a month or two).  

Most folks thought at the creation of the 'media-library'....it meant that it'd be up for a longer....more permanent period.

So back in October....ARD created something called ARD-Plus.  Yes, a streaming video-service, that you pay 4.99 Euro a month for.....to get access to the stuff that fell off the limited time only library.

Here is the odd part of this streaming video story.....to get the public 'extra' deal, you have to deal with one of three non-public companies: Magenta, Apple, or Amazon.  You go to their streaming video service, and the ARD service is 'extra'.

Any value added here?  If you wanted to watch one of the Tatort crime series from the 1990s?  Various documentary pieces from ten to twenty years ago?  That's really the hook to the streaming video service. 

I will admit that Netflix, Amazon, and WOW are a big deal deal currently....but it's hard to see any real interests exists for ARD's library.  It would shock me if there were more than 10,000 attached customers to the service.

What You And Your Boss Contribute To The German Social System

 First, for your social pension deal.....out of your salary, you contribute 9.3-percent, and your company/boss contributes the same amount.....so it's 18.6-percent of salary that goes into the pot.

Second, health insurance.  Similar deal....you throw 7.3-percent and your company/boss contribute 7.3-percent.....so it's 14.6-percent of your salary going into the pot.

Third, unemployment contribution?  1.2-percent of the salary from each of you....so 2.4-percent.

It may seem like it's a divided function here, but all of it arrives against the product or service that you as a worker 'sell' somewhere in the reality of things. 

15 Nov 2022: Four German News Stories

 1.  The coalition (SPD, Greens, FDP) have come to a decision on a CO2 tax affecting apartment situations.  If you own a building with a low rating, then you as the landlord will pay more on the CO2 tax to be created.

What'll likely happen?  Escalation of rents by landlords....to cover government 'gimmick'.  It may be hyped upon and grumbled about, but if you want to lessen income level on a property of any type by a tax.....typically, the owner raises the 'bar'.  It may take a year for this all to sink in.....with some new solution....to further this whole discussion.

2.  There's a discussion going on in the German grocery world....that pork products are going to lessen, while the pricing for what you do find will escalate (maybe 40-percent more).

Farmers?  They are cutting back on production and sending a signal that you might walk into a grocery by mid-2023.....to find some pork shelves empty.  

I'm not saying a crisis, but it's going to make German-produced pork into a limited quantity.  

3.  Lot of chatter started up in Qatar over the World Cup and beer.  It appears that the FIFA folks are fighting off a push by Qatar to limit or ban beer for the game period.  

I would suggest this....if there is a total ban on beer....then a lot of European fans will skip the in-person ticket situations and this turns into a pretty odd World Cup. You would think they'd have written this up in an agreement five years ago.

4.  Regionally, near me, in the Limburg area and A49's autobahn.....cops got called on some truck-driver who seemed to be drunk.  They arrive and after a bit of persuasion....got him tested.

Note, German police alcohol testers only go up to the 4.99 per mille level.  If you test at the 2 to 3.5 level.....you are typically falling asleep or blacking out.  At 4, you'd be normally in a coma.  

Well...in this case, the guy exceeded 4.99, which is fairly amazing that he's still alive. 

What Happened To The Burgergeld/Welfare Money Bill Today?

 Well....the Bundestag handed it to the Landestag (the sixteen states have seats here and it's a totally different make-up of parties).  Here....the Burgergeld failed.

Next?  There's a mediation team working to write a slightly different text. 

Fear?  They have about a week or two....to get this passed, so it's effective on 1 January 2023..  

The key thing for the coalition....they want less importance on forcing unemployed folks to training or job opportunities.  The sixteen states don't see this as being critical.  

Crime Boss Story

 About three weeks ago, I essayed about a Lebanese-German....crime-family 'boss'....in Berlin, who'd been picked up by the police around midnight one evening....taken with orders by the police to the Airport, and then sent to Beirut (deportation).

It was a page one story for about 24 hours.

Well....the guy has been interviewed in Beirut, and indicates that he will be 'returning' to Berlin...in the near future.  

Odds of this?  I give it a 99-percent chance of happening.  

German legal system at odds?  Yeah....it's something that the current legal system of Germany has never really faced.

Years ago....deportation usually worked.  Today, it's just a joke.

My humble guess is that some type of special law will have to be written, and a special type holding 'camp' (maybe on German soil....maybe somewhere else)....will have to be created, and characters like this....will have to be dumped there for the remainder of their lives.  

What Is Shrinkflation?

 I heard the term used on the German business news today, and it's a simple commerce 'trick'.

You have a bag of potato chips (for example)....standard bag that you've bought every Monday for eight years as the mid-day snack.  

The company wants to keep the pricing at the same level....with the same bag, and they basically lessens the contents by six chips.  The bag will state the correct weight and calories, but you never pay attention to the missing chips.   

You can do the same with a chocolate bar....a  bag of spaghetti noodles....or a loaf of bread.   Consumers simply won't notice something 5-to-8 percent less in content. 

14 Nov 2022: Five German News Stories

 1.  According to the Brits.....Boris Becker (convicted) will be released from prison right before Christmas, and deported back to Germany.  Boris today?  Mostly broke but still a draw for tennis analysis.  

2.  Chatter from the UK indicates taxes will be escalating....for mostly everyone.  Doing this in the middle of recession....about the dumbest thing you can dream up.

3.  I sat last night watching HR (my regional Hessen public TV network) and they featured a 10-minute piece with their reporter in Qatar.....talking to various German soccer players and some Qatar official over the negative hype of the World Cup games (soon to start) in Qatar.

Fairly serious piece....slams the Qatar government.  I felt sorry for the players being in the middle of this.  General position by most German journalists is negative about the Cup games being played there.  If you asked me on hype in Germany....it'd usually be ultra high and people pepped up for the games to start.  I don't see that attitude much.

4.  Explosion in Istanbul's shopping district yesterday.  Blame?  Right now....PKK is thought to be behind it.  Proof?  Zero.

5.  Topic from last night's Anne Will public forum show on ARD?  Burgergeld.....'citizen's money' (welfare).

I watched around 20 minutes of the chat forum.  For the average German on welfare, the program (to be voted upon this week) dumps approximately 50 extra Euro into their monthly pocket....that's it.

The only hype that is really attracting attention?  The coalition folks (SPD, Greens and FDP) want to dump a requirement.  The requirement is.....if you accept welfare, and we (the Job-Center) hand you a job opportunity or a training package....you have to accept it or the welfare disappears.   In the general public view....dumping that requirement means that 'lazy' people will never be motivated to get active to find/accept work.  

The blunt side of this discussion....every German has an opinion on this topic, and probably two-thirds of the public believe that half-a-million Germans are just plain 'lazy' and not motivated to take up a job.  Whether true or not....it doesn't matter....this belief lingers around.  Trying to educate the public to reach a different conclusion....doesn't seem to be working.  

How Close Is Germany To Legalized Cannabis/Weed?

 Well....originally folks were expecting the law to be in full draft by December....passed, and some date made for legal sales of marijuana/cannabis.  

ARD (public TV) did an update today, and I'll make 4 observations:

1.  Various companies are in 'pattern' and ready for some start-up sell-date in 2023....for legal weed sales.

2.  Ministry of Health (Lauterbach, SPD) the last key point?  Yes, and he hasn't found some way to say he approves (he isn't that enthusiastic about the idea).  Lauterbach wants the EU to say something.....either to halt this or allow it to proceed.

3.  Funny note on the rules?  The gov't wants a THC limit for anyone buying it in the 18 to 21 age group.  

4.  No one really expects the current black market to go away....which is an odd part of the legalization.

Law to pass?  Based on various reports.....it won't happen in 2022, and it might not pass in the first half of 2023.  Just odd how the FDP and Greens are so hyped up and all these years of the SPD claiming to be pro-cannabis but just lingering around.  

The Problem With The 'Last Generation' Environmentalists/Activists And Their 'Agenda'

 My wife recently pulled out electrical, and natural gas bills....from the past decade, and from the previous house (1994 to 2013).  We went to a new refrigerator, new washer, and new dryer upon the move.  Two years ago, we went to an entire new furnace for the heating situation.  The freezer in the basement?  Highest grade and lowest wattage of any that they had on display.  The windows and doors in the place now?  All renovated and 'sealed'. 

Here's the thing....we use around 70-percent of the electricity that we did in the 1990s.  If you tried to suggest further cuts....I have doubts that you'd have much of anything to pursue.

On natural gas?  We use around 50-to-60 percent of the required heat that we did in the 1990s.

Lights?  With one exception, every light in the house is LED.

The only real electrical consumption in the house?  The stove/oven, and the dryer.  That's it.  

On fuel usage?  If you calculated the cars we had in the 1990s (on average), and the use of one vehicle today....we are probably using one-third less on gas consumption.  

Drying clothing?  From April through late summer.....clothing are hung on the balcony.  It's strictly winter months that we use the dryer.

If you gaze around the German community I live in, I'd say more than three-quarters of society have gone down the same path.  With the savings, they all go off to the airport, and fly to various exotic locations to reward themselves.  The airlines?  They've all gone to newer planes which get better mileage. 

The idea of using the train to get to Amsterdam, Vienna or Hamburg?  No thanks....by the time you figure in the Bahn 'problems' and occasional plan 'B' situations....no one really trusts the Bahn to get you there.  

I hate to say it....but the youthful activists don't see the vast landscape.  The idea that we MUST accomplish X, Y and Z....in quick fashion, and it's their solution which probably needs more review and open discussion....which is now on a pointed stick.  

Almost every ten years, there's an entire new technology era.  You can see it in travel options, medical situations, logistics, communications, and farming.  

Public TV or 'normal' TV?  Streaming video from a dozen different sources....offer more variety.  I have a radio in the kitchen which I can set to a Irish station and get streaming music.  

The 9-Euro Bahn/bus ticket that the 'Last Generation' get hyped-up about?  Well...it's not supportable unless the government taxes the general public to a greater extent, and pays for services out of their pocket.  The 9-Euro ticket only benefits Germans in highly urbanized areas.  Those other 30-percent of society.....living in rural regions?  They get virtually nothing much out of the 9-Euro deal.

The speed limit discussion by the 'Last Generation'?  Well...we are within ten years of self-driving cars being delivered.  They will speed along at what they (the car's computer) considers as a safe speed......whether in sunlight, rain, mist, or snow.  The safety discussion at that point is rendered useless by the car's thinking and logic patterns.  In that same time period, new gas/diesel cars will no longer be sold....so it'll only be battery power (NOT gas) that run the vehicles.  

I'm of the group that believes that general society should just stand out of the way of development, and let technology take its time to make things improved on their own.  

Covid In Germany: Trying To Compare November 2021 to November 2022

 Well....you can't compare it.

It's just shocking the world of difference as you look around.

Nightly on the news presently?  In November 2021, it would have been two to four minutes of news chatter at the 8 PM national news on public TV....nightly.  Now?  In a 7-day week, there might be two brief 30-second mentions of Covid....that's it.

Last year at this time.....you could only wander into a bar or restaurant if you were 2G (meaning vaxed-up or you had Covid in recent weeks).  At the time, just about every pub or food situation were marginally running, with half the manpower cut.  Now?  No regulations....full customer base visiting, and a national shortage of staff personnel and cooks..

The 7-day infection rate in November 2021?  It was talked about almost daily and in some national crisis mode.  Currently?  It's in the 400-range and not of any crisis value.

People still going to the hospital with bad cases?  Oh yeah....that part hasn't changed.  

Deaths?  I looked at the national numbers for Friday.....216 reported dead from Covid in that previous 24 hour period.  Since day one?  In the 155,000 range.  

Last night, I watched a live German TV show....where one of the moderators was out last week from Covid.  He was all vaxed-up (with the booster) and this was his third Covid illness episode since 2020.  They avoided any discussion over it.....but it's obvious that the vax-up business marginally affects your odds.

So the big difference?  I think the German political folks woke up and realized a massive tidal wave of bankruptcy was about to occur at the end of 2022.  Then they said we have to relate this to a new reality, and just get on with life.

The end of the threat?  Well....no.  I stood in some grocery line recently and some gal started a big coughing fit.  You could tell....it was freaking folks out over the worry of it being Covid.  I've seen a couple of cases like this on the bus trips as well.  

Flu now openly discussed as a bigger worry?  I noticed the public news folks hyping it up on Friday evening's episode.  They almost made it a bigger threat....than Covid.

Any of this comparison business being noted by journalists?  No.  It's just odd....a world of difference, and virtually no one talking about how 365 days changed matters.  

Five Things I Expect in 2023

 1.UK PM (the new guy, Sunak) will enter a crisis period, and resign.  Events will occur....to require a new election....where the Tory Party marginally wins. 

2.  EU election results?  Far right-wing (because of the energy crisis) gets near 20-percent of European votes. 

3.  Recession and slow-down in production....results in Germany having a 6-percent unemployment rate by mid-summer.

4.  Another wave of Russians exiting the 'motherland' in early 2023....in the range of 500,000 to 1-million....to avoid the second reservists draft.  A new Russian law will be written to make it a crime to openly discuss economic trends....unless you work for the government.  

5.  Germany reaches a stage where they hold 'Last Generation' protest activists for 30 to 60 days of jail upon each arrest.  This catapults the group to get into more violent aspects by the end of 2023.   

Four German News Stories

 1.  The German Interior Minister (Faeser, SPD) is chatting up the idea of limiting cash payments to 10,000 Euro....to halt money-laundering.  To be honest, the EU has been discussing the idea for a while, and a number of European countries have already put this rule into effect.  

Would this be a big deal?  Most average Germans probably never pay cash in amounts more than a thousand Euro.  If you renovated some part of your house....requiring 12,000 Euro, then most folks would do a electronic transfer when the bill was presented.  

I doubt if you find more than one-percent of society complaining about this limit.

2.  Heavy criticism has come up over the idea of zero days at home, if you test positive for Covid.  Basically, the politicians are open to the idea equating Covid to a cold....which just isn't selling.  Currently, the rule is 5 days of sick leave if you test positive.

3.  Bavaria has a law that is a bit different from most German states....in dealing with the 'Last Generation' activists.  Their law is a preventative measure.  If you are detained/arrested and they have the feeling you will repeat the action....they can hold you in a jail for 30 days.  So they've been recently using the law in that manner.

At the federal level?  There's some review going on to add more laws.....making it likely that jail-time will become a normal thing for the environmental protesters. 

4.  We had an odd robbery in my region.  Over in Zwinkenberg (between Darmstadt and Frankfurt)....at a grocery...two guys showed up in clown make-up and red wigs....demanding cash.  

It would appear no one really took them serious, and then they showed stun-weapons....using them on one employee.

Cash taken?  Cops are suggesting it's just a couple of hundred Euro.  Escape vehicle?  Mercedes....non-German plates on it.  

Empty Shelving

 This past week, my wife (German in nature) dragged me off to three different local grocery operations.  I'm mostly the cart-guy and to lift anything heavy (like beer custons). 

So you can't help but notice....shelving is somewhat empty.  I'd divide it into three categories:

1.  Certain companies have tried to raise their prices, and the grocery operation has refused to 'play along'.  So orders dropped, and the shelf is completely empty.

2. Logistics is behind....mostly because of a trucker shortage.  So instead of daily deliveries....it might be every other day where the depot delivery is occurring.

3.  Pricing has reached a level where customers are more hesitant to buy unless they really have a necessity for the product.

I'm not saying 50-percent of the shelf space is empty....I'm just saying when you walk a entire grocery store.....at least twenty separate shelves are mostly empty or completely empty.  

It's not a crisis thing, but it's just noticeable.

I went to a regional US commissary in the past month, and noted that even shelves here were somewhat empty.....with shipments behind schedule.  

What Is This Emergency Warning Chatter All About?

 If you've been living in the US over the past five or six years.....you know of a broadcast system which activates when bad weather (tornado warnings) occur.  You get a broadcast warning to your cellphone....to 'take action'.  

You might be standing in the middle of Wal-Mart, and get this warble sound from your cellphone, and realize that something serious is going on.

Well....this system is finally going to be introduced into Germany.  The first test? Scheduled for 8 December.

If you don't have a cellphone?  You are pretty much screwed.  Presently (I looked it up), for 2021.....around 62-million Germans have a cellphone (83-million in population).  I would imagine the majority of the 21-million without the phone....are under the age of sixteen, or over the age of seventy-five.  

Are there cellphones that can't sync-up with the emergency warning business?  Yes....generally, if you look over the list, if you have a technology that dates back to 2019 or prior....you probably won't be able to get the warning.  A big deal?  Well....most Germans probably swap out their phones on a two-year basis.  I would take a guess that one-third of people are like me....not swapping out until the phone dies (usually at the 4-year point).

I'm likely to take a guess that one in four Germans with the cellphone....won't get the 8 December test message, and this will result in some massive public worry about those poor folks who can't be warned of impending 'doom'.

Those folks who live in the hidden valleys.....who get marginal to zero reception?  Yeah....they will also suffer from impending 'doom' chatter.

So that's the whole discussion.  Around 11 AM on 8 December....just don't be shocked if you are standing in the middle of grocery store and you get some 'doom' test message on your handy.