1. ARD (public TV) ran 'Arena' last night....live public forum....100 guests, with Chancellor Merz being asked questions.
Watching the whole thing....the audience was not 'rigged' (as you might note with US networks). A couple of folks asked fairly in-depth/complicated questions (slanted), but Merz just went on and gave the answer (without stumbling).
I'm not saying impressive....but if you watched, you probably got a decent 'dose' of reality.
At some point...question came up...how did the AfD folks get so popular....Merz responds, they only got that popular because we (meaning both the CDU-CSU and SPD) weren't that good.
2. There's a weird reality series that I watch...off RTL-2 (commercial TV)....which features poverty-Germans on welfare.
So, there's a young guy on the show who occasionally gets updated. The latest....the job-center 'forced' him into an apprenticeship deal....so he could make it without German welfare. Well....this past week....the guy quit the apprenticeship after the 4th week....saying it was too 'strenuous'. The type? Landscaping.
A lot of Germans now grumble about the welfare crowd.
3. Unusual case in Berlin.....black guy arrested...held now for the 4th week in custody....refuses to identify himself. They've now published his picture and are asking the public to ID him.
4. WELT had a unusual story-line this AM....we live in a 'debate-culture'....where everything comes up to talk-over/debate. Worth reading.
5. The German statutory health insurance (GKV) now warns of a further increase in additional contributions. Same issue as in the US.
6. Odd factor to Ukraine-Russia peace talks.
Before the war....roughly 17-percent of population of Ukraine was ethnic-Russian...particularly the SE chunk of Ukraine had more Russians.
The Russians want the SE area as part of the peace-deal...which the Ukrainians say 'no'. If you use older data (going back to 2001 Census)....almost 40-perentof the SE area....was ethnic Russian.
In either case (peace denied, or peace ensured)...there's likely to be 50-percent population decrease....for decades.
7. EU story still circulating.....selling 2.3T of US bonds if US abandons Ukraine or gives Ukraine horrible peace deal.
Full intent? Crash US economy and bond market.
BS-meter? 1-to-10? Probably a '3'.
The problem would be on the backs of banks to sell at a highly discounted rate....meaning a loss to EU members holding the bonds.
Yeah, as much damage as the US would suffer....EU members engaged in this....would open up a long period of recession (multiple years).
Who would buy the discounted bonds? Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Saudi Arabia, UAE, and the Fed.
In this scenario....I would anticipate NATO dissolving in a matter of a hundred days....I would anticipate von der Leyen being fired as 'head' of the EU, and several member states (Poland among them)...buying the discounted bonds.
Crazy story, and just makes no sense.
4 comments:
Europe reportedly considering the "nuclear option" of dumping U.S. Treasuries if the Ukraine deal falls apart https://x.com/Barchart/status/1998259614857736501
I did a 2-hour review of this....published in the last hour....with 'The Big Short' in my mind (the movie). Maybe in the first hour of the nuke-option....a million-dollars of bond value would go for 95-percent of value. By 3rd hour...buyers could probably buy the million-dollars of bond value for 50-percent. By the end of the day....you might be able to buy a million-dollars of bond value for 20-percent. Lots of lesser countries (especially India, Egypt, Turkey) would just jump in for 'deals'. Can you imagine the EU politicians explaining they lost a trillion in value...for Ukraine, and it's all 'wonderful'? The US would go into a 1-year recession-to-depression era...but the EU might be looking at five to six years of recovery.
Whoever dreamed up this nuke-action....wants a total market collapse. On the flip side....Warren Buffet's fund is holding $350-B in cash. I would imagine....he'd use the money to buy cheapo bonds...probably $600-B in value....which he'd buy for $350-B (my guess).
As we know though, TACO won't go through with anything. The nobel prize worthy Trump will push him back into line. (Milenia Trump that is).
If these bonds were held by the ECB itself....it'd be one case. But once you say every member of the EU holds such bonds, and very unlikely to part with the bonds for 10-to-50 percent off face-value....they 'd just start laughing. No bank official would stand for it....they'd walk out of the meeting.
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