I spent two hours viewing the crazy scenario where the EU might sell off US Treasury Bonds....to show intent to force Trump to a acceptable Ukraine-Russia peace-treaty.
So the rumored value? In the 2-trillion range.
I sat and remembered the movie....'The Big Short', and the scenario for the bond dumping would likely go this way.
Hour 1: attempting to sell $100-B of US bonds...$100-B of value...discounted to probably $95-B....to start a dump.
Hour 2: Other markets realizing the haste involved...looking at another dump of $250-B....now valued at a dump price of $200-B.
Hour 3: More markets hesitating....over $500-B of bonds....buying them only at $250-B of value.
By the end of the day....$2-trillion sold at a value of roughly $800-B (my view)....with the EU holding $1.2-trillion of lost value.
Banks in Europe trying to explain the loss in some legit fashion....with various stock markets falling.
So you end up with a group of Saudi/Japanese folks grinning....they bought $2-trillion of bonds at almost half-price, and European politicians talking over a loss of $1 Trillion of value....just happily dumped.
The more I view this scenario....the crazier it gets.
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