1 Sep 2024.
Expectations? Well....polling from the past month suggests that the AfD Party will get in the range of 34-percent, with the CDU Party coming in 2nd place at 30-percent.
Newcomers.....BSW Party....may shock a few with an expected 12-percent.
Beyond that? SPD, Linke Party and Greens? They will be lucky to get anything beyond 6-percent. Yeah, this is a worrisome problem for both the SPD and Greens....selling folks on a national trend.
Will anyone partner in a AfD coalition? No.....so you end up in a weird situation where a month will pass, and the AfD can't form a coalition. So the CDU is given a chance, and they'd have to form with the BSW, Greens and SPD....to get a 50-percent situation.
This making the CDU into a hard-sell for future elections? Well....you could make that case.
The other odd scenario? Well....numbers-wise...BSW has the time to cut into both the Greens and SPD. So you might end up with BSW having near 20-percent, and the Linke, SPD and Greens knocked out of the race (failing to get 5-percent minimum to earn seats). In this scenario, it's really a crappy position for the Greens and SPD.
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