Months ago.....you could tell that the German economy had quickly paced itself to come out of recent economic mess. They had made a number of decisions....some simply by long-term planning and some simply by luck. So they emerged ahead of most of Europe. They had this window of opportunity. Business and export went onto turbo stage. What Germany came to discover....was that they actually needed more manpower....smart folks, individuals with engineering talents, and scientists.
There was a great article this week by the New York Times discussing the matter. German companies got smart and started to recruit unemployed engineers and such.....from neighboring countries that had a ten-percent or better unemployment rate. They didn't care about the language difference or cultural shock. And the unemployed engineers didn't refuse the deal.
The numbers involved? Well....the statistics aren't that clear, but one would figure there's around 100k or more individuals involved in this turbo mode.
How long does this last? That's a question that the Times didn't answer, but it would be an interesting question to think about. My humble opinion is that we are looking at a five-year period....where most of European is in a screwed-up economic stage and recovery for most not coming until 2018. Eventually, there might be 500k "guests" in Germany. So you have to ponder.....if a Spanish engineer stays around five years and really likes the conditions....would he even leave when Spain recovered and asked him back. Maybe not.
You don't get attached to some place in twenty-four months and agree to stay on. Somewhere after four years.....you've gotten yourself usually into a boat-anchor situation. You like the local town. You have your favorite barber. You know the best restaurants. You know the company strategy. You start to feel it's all nice and comfy.
There's a fundamental shift in business and manufacturing going on. Germany has found this window of opportunity and making maximum use out of it. They have smart folks from all over European to their cities. I hate using the word unplanned technology renaissance period....but they end up with a secondary period behind the recovery period for Europe....where their companies are developing all kinds of technology.
There's an advantage being put together here, and you have to wonder where it carries Germany.
Sunday, April 29, 2012
Monday, April 23, 2012
A Wolf Story
Back around 2006....a bear crossed over the German border and became the first bear seen on Germany territory in over 150 years. It was a big deal for about ten weeks...until Bruno the bear got hunted down and shot. A guy could write an entire book about this ten week period in Germany....half-fiction and half-fact....and probably make it to the top-ten books sold in Germany.
This week...it came out that a wolf was seen for the first time in 120 years. Well...he was seen, and shot dead. The Rhineland-Palatinate Hunting Association has done some fact checking and feels very sure about it being a wolf....beyond that....they aren't that sure about anything. The German press says the wolf was found dead off on some trail that walkers tend to use in the Westerwald area on Saturday afternoon. It's a male and an adult...based on comments (not a pup).
Who shot the wolf? Unknown.
All they will say is that it was a high-caliber rifle that hunters would typically carry. So where does this go?
It's an odd story. I worked with an American who was readily accepted in German hunting circles and might even be one of the top twenty hunters in the Wiesbaden region. Course, I'd also have to admit he is a fellow-Bama individual, and likely has a head start on most German hunters. Over the period that we worked together....I gained a good bit of insight about your typical German hunter.
There's this odd thing about German hunters....they are pretty organized and dedicated to their sport. If some German hunter came out and tracked some animal and it turned out to be the first wolf in 120 years to walk on German territory....he probably wouldn't shoot it and would rush back to brag about his discovery. He'd tell forty hunters from the local club, and none of them would really believe him. So he'd have to drag some back to the spot....show the trail and prints....and he'd become a legend overnight.
Days and weeks would pass....as this guy's legendary status built up and some media frenzy would occur over this wonderful discovery. Then some political folks would jump in and insist that the wolf had to be shot....with ten German thousand hunters all getting peppy about new political comment.
So, here's my thing. I don't think the wolf was shot there, or by some local hunter. I would suspect that some guy went down into Slovakia or maybe out to Russia....brought a wolf into Germany and just shot it as some news piece.
I think this was set up. Maybe I'm wrong on this. But I just can't see a typical German hunter taking this shot...and walking away without the wolf's body. It doesn't make sense.
UPDATE: An older gentleman (71) has come out and admitted that he thought it looked like a dog when he shot the wolf, and regrets the action. Hard to say if some law will be tossed at the old guy.
This week...it came out that a wolf was seen for the first time in 120 years. Well...he was seen, and shot dead. The Rhineland-Palatinate Hunting Association has done some fact checking and feels very sure about it being a wolf....beyond that....they aren't that sure about anything. The German press says the wolf was found dead off on some trail that walkers tend to use in the Westerwald area on Saturday afternoon. It's a male and an adult...based on comments (not a pup).
Who shot the wolf? Unknown.
All they will say is that it was a high-caliber rifle that hunters would typically carry. So where does this go?
It's an odd story. I worked with an American who was readily accepted in German hunting circles and might even be one of the top twenty hunters in the Wiesbaden region. Course, I'd also have to admit he is a fellow-Bama individual, and likely has a head start on most German hunters. Over the period that we worked together....I gained a good bit of insight about your typical German hunter.
There's this odd thing about German hunters....they are pretty organized and dedicated to their sport. If some German hunter came out and tracked some animal and it turned out to be the first wolf in 120 years to walk on German territory....he probably wouldn't shoot it and would rush back to brag about his discovery. He'd tell forty hunters from the local club, and none of them would really believe him. So he'd have to drag some back to the spot....show the trail and prints....and he'd become a legend overnight.
Days and weeks would pass....as this guy's legendary status built up and some media frenzy would occur over this wonderful discovery. Then some political folks would jump in and insist that the wolf had to be shot....with ten German thousand hunters all getting peppy about new political comment.
So, here's my thing. I don't think the wolf was shot there, or by some local hunter. I would suspect that some guy went down into Slovakia or maybe out to Russia....brought a wolf into Germany and just shot it as some news piece.
I think this was set up. Maybe I'm wrong on this. But I just can't see a typical German hunter taking this shot...and walking away without the wolf's body. It doesn't make sense.
UPDATE: An older gentleman (71) has come out and admitted that he thought it looked like a dog when he shot the wolf, and regrets the action. Hard to say if some law will be tossed at the old guy.
Saturday, April 21, 2012
Policy Statement to be Made?
There was a statement by Chancellor Merkel yesterday....preparing folks for a big public statement next week over upcoming policy changes. The emphasis of the change? She's strongly hinting that Germany faces a difficult future with a high proportion of older folks, and currently.....they just aren't in a good position to handle them.
This all revolves around infrastructure, and the declining birth-rate. Germans aren't replacing Germans in the population pool. There is some thought that means more outsiders....more auslanders....more undesirables in the population.
There was this period in the 1960s where Germany openly brought in folks from Greece, Turkey and Italy to work the factory jobs and pump up German industrial strength. A number of Turks came, and eventually a fair number of Turks accepted German life and stayed. From this initial group.....most integrated into society. Over the last twenty years....the Germans have awaken and come to this reality that they absolutely expect integration. You can't pretend to be an Egyptian in Germany and just collecting a German paycheck. Or pretend to be a Syrian in Germany.....pretending to live in German society.
Out of eighty million Germans....the rough numbers say that around six million of those folks are of foreign descent.
I'm guessing that while the Chancellor's programs will center around the aging group and how new community centers might be built in German towns.....it will also center around looking for a program to interest German women into having a second kid. I'm also guessing that someone will suggest a think-tank look at the exit of Germans going on currently (between 100k-150k Germans leave each year) and how it might be decreased.
The key thing to this policy statement for next week? It'll force the news media to discuss the topic and it's bound to be the number one topic of next weekend's political chat groups on TV.
This all revolves around infrastructure, and the declining birth-rate. Germans aren't replacing Germans in the population pool. There is some thought that means more outsiders....more auslanders....more undesirables in the population.
There was this period in the 1960s where Germany openly brought in folks from Greece, Turkey and Italy to work the factory jobs and pump up German industrial strength. A number of Turks came, and eventually a fair number of Turks accepted German life and stayed. From this initial group.....most integrated into society. Over the last twenty years....the Germans have awaken and come to this reality that they absolutely expect integration. You can't pretend to be an Egyptian in Germany and just collecting a German paycheck. Or pretend to be a Syrian in Germany.....pretending to live in German society.
Out of eighty million Germans....the rough numbers say that around six million of those folks are of foreign descent.
I'm guessing that while the Chancellor's programs will center around the aging group and how new community centers might be built in German towns.....it will also center around looking for a program to interest German women into having a second kid. I'm also guessing that someone will suggest a think-tank look at the exit of Germans going on currently (between 100k-150k Germans leave each year) and how it might be decreased.
The key thing to this policy statement for next week? It'll force the news media to discuss the topic and it's bound to be the number one topic of next weekend's political chat groups on TV.
Friday, April 20, 2012
Leftover Mess with Greece
Spring is in the air, and you'd think that Greece....with it's huge budget issues and economic crisis would be feeling slightly positive over the upcoming tourist season. It would be the normal time that Germans and various other Europeans make vacation plans.....dumping billions into the Greek economy.
Well....according to new numbers that came out this week.....revenue from tourists over the first three months of 2012 was around seventeen percent LESS than anticipated.
When the Greek media went out last year.....blasting away at the Germans.....you just had this bad feeling about an eventual reaction. Germans have this ability to remember things, and this was a fairly negative period where things were said on a daily basis. All a German had to do....was turn the TV on or pick up a newspaper, and there was this anti-German rant.
So my advice to Greece? You might want to come out with a friendly-German advertisement. You might want to show that almost all Greeks have a positive feelings about German tourists. You might want to put things in a positive light. Because if you don't......then you've got half-empty hotels in May and June, which equals less revenue for the government, and less profit for the private individual.
Well....according to new numbers that came out this week.....revenue from tourists over the first three months of 2012 was around seventeen percent LESS than anticipated.
When the Greek media went out last year.....blasting away at the Germans.....you just had this bad feeling about an eventual reaction. Germans have this ability to remember things, and this was a fairly negative period where things were said on a daily basis. All a German had to do....was turn the TV on or pick up a newspaper, and there was this anti-German rant.
So my advice to Greece? You might want to come out with a friendly-German advertisement. You might want to show that almost all Greeks have a positive feelings about German tourists. You might want to put things in a positive light. Because if you don't......then you've got half-empty hotels in May and June, which equals less revenue for the government, and less profit for the private individual.
Monday, April 16, 2012
3096, the Movie
In a couple of weeks.....there's a film crew which will start the production of "3096", the story of how ten-year old Austrian Natascha Kampusch was kidnapped, and held for roughly eight years (or 3,096 days).
I've been waiting on this to occur since 2006, when she escaped. For a few brief weeks in 2006, this was the number one news story of the day...and lingered for a long time. Within the German population, there was a great deal of interest. I think Natascha was probably one of the most recognized individuals walking the streets at the time.
From an American prospective, it was a dramatic story which should be put to film. Weeks after the escape, she agreed to one simple interview on German TV. For a kid, raised in a virtual jail of a garage basement area for 3,096 days.....she came across remarkably intelligent. She admitted at one point, that she had survived without TV.....having only access to a radio. Her vast world.....was simply voices.
I will admit, there are various holes in the story that she never has really filled in. We know the kidnapper killed himself on the day that she escaped. But we are left with the initial kidnapping report of two men involved.....which no one has ever challenged Natascha to any degree on. We know that the kidnapper occasionally took her out of the basement garage, yet she never attempted to escape on those occasions.
My humble guess is that the movie will try to tell the story....yet leave people with question marks.....which just can't be answered. I'd expect this to be the most interesting movie of 2013.
I've been waiting on this to occur since 2006, when she escaped. For a few brief weeks in 2006, this was the number one news story of the day...and lingered for a long time. Within the German population, there was a great deal of interest. I think Natascha was probably one of the most recognized individuals walking the streets at the time.
From an American prospective, it was a dramatic story which should be put to film. Weeks after the escape, she agreed to one simple interview on German TV. For a kid, raised in a virtual jail of a garage basement area for 3,096 days.....she came across remarkably intelligent. She admitted at one point, that she had survived without TV.....having only access to a radio. Her vast world.....was simply voices.
I will admit, there are various holes in the story that she never has really filled in. We know the kidnapper killed himself on the day that she escaped. But we are left with the initial kidnapping report of two men involved.....which no one has ever challenged Natascha to any degree on. We know that the kidnapper occasionally took her out of the basement garage, yet she never attempted to escape on those occasions.
My humble guess is that the movie will try to tell the story....yet leave people with question marks.....which just can't be answered. I'd expect this to be the most interesting movie of 2013.
Sunday, April 15, 2012
Free Qurans
It is an odd situation. There's this Islamic group....House of the Quran....which now says that it will hand out twenty-five million copies of the Quran to every household in Germany, Switzerland and Austria.
There's been a number of comments across the German press about this idea. Some kinda lean on the idea that it shouldn't be done at all. Some hint that the vast number will end up in the garbage, which will infuriate the Muslims of the region. There's a handful of comments that suggest that some folks might read it and be somewhat positive about the message.
My humble feeling is that well over half will refuse the Quran at the door, and if it's in the mailbox....they will toss in the paper dumpster. In a household where the age of the occupants might be less than twenty-five years old....you might have a case where one out of ten might pick up the book and actually read. Half of those who might read it.....my humble opinion again....will be more curious. All in all....this might recruit five thousand new converts to the Muslim religion. I'd hate to suggest that this is all about getting five thousand potential recruits out of twenty-five million, but I suspect it is that case.
The reverse of this? Bringing fifty million Bibles into Syria, Saudi Arabia, Iran and Iraq? Don't worry....they aren't the type of governments to accept this in any form or fashion.
What can Germany, Austria, or Switzerland do about this? Nothing much. There's no laws that hinder this. You could dream up a law.....but then it'd be shot down by some national court for crossing the line of their Constitution.
So you can imagine Huns....the local butcher....getting this Quran in his mailbox. He sits there and wondering who the heck did this. It has to be a joke. He's had a few beers. He gets mad about the Quran in his house. He walks out the backdoor and makes a straight line for his paper dumpster by the fence. He dumps the book into the can. He stumbles his way back toward the house....falls over a flower pot...falls against the house, and breaks his arm and shoulder. The ambulance takes him over to the hospital while he's till half-drunk. The doctor is asking how he came to this situation, and his response is that Islamic Quran. Nothing is very clear about this, but the doctor writes this up as "fell over his Quran". He ends up in some national database and Huns is now identified as a Muslim.
Stranger things have happened in Germany....you know.
There's been a number of comments across the German press about this idea. Some kinda lean on the idea that it shouldn't be done at all. Some hint that the vast number will end up in the garbage, which will infuriate the Muslims of the region. There's a handful of comments that suggest that some folks might read it and be somewhat positive about the message.
My humble feeling is that well over half will refuse the Quran at the door, and if it's in the mailbox....they will toss in the paper dumpster. In a household where the age of the occupants might be less than twenty-five years old....you might have a case where one out of ten might pick up the book and actually read. Half of those who might read it.....my humble opinion again....will be more curious. All in all....this might recruit five thousand new converts to the Muslim religion. I'd hate to suggest that this is all about getting five thousand potential recruits out of twenty-five million, but I suspect it is that case.
The reverse of this? Bringing fifty million Bibles into Syria, Saudi Arabia, Iran and Iraq? Don't worry....they aren't the type of governments to accept this in any form or fashion.
What can Germany, Austria, or Switzerland do about this? Nothing much. There's no laws that hinder this. You could dream up a law.....but then it'd be shot down by some national court for crossing the line of their Constitution.
So you can imagine Huns....the local butcher....getting this Quran in his mailbox. He sits there and wondering who the heck did this. It has to be a joke. He's had a few beers. He gets mad about the Quran in his house. He walks out the backdoor and makes a straight line for his paper dumpster by the fence. He dumps the book into the can. He stumbles his way back toward the house....falls over a flower pot...falls against the house, and breaks his arm and shoulder. The ambulance takes him over to the hospital while he's till half-drunk. The doctor is asking how he came to this situation, and his response is that Islamic Quran. Nothing is very clear about this, but the doctor writes this up as "fell over his Quran". He ends up in some national database and Huns is now identified as a Muslim.
Stranger things have happened in Germany....you know.
Wednesday, April 11, 2012
An American's View of German Public Transportation
If you travel around Germany....you end up using public transportation, and you have to start admiring it. There are problems....one has to admit. But then you look at the complex nature that they've gone to, and the relative low-cost of transportation, and you have to give them a thumbs-up.
First, train travel is exceptionally safe, and for the most part....runs on time. Sure...about every four months....there's some rail accident but if you consider the number of miles of track and the number of trains running every single day....it's pretty safe. As for on-time rates? Well....typically, it's the winter months where you see trains running thirty to sixty minutes behind schedule....especially with heavy snowfall occurring.
Second, as you draw a circle around every major city in Germany.....there's this massive bus operation that is dependable and within the cost range that people demand. I will admit....some towns get served by one bus an hour.....over a ten-hour day, and maybe that's not exactly the best of schedules, but it's better than nothing.
Third, if you stood up in Mainz, and wanted to make a weekend trip to Berlin....it's simple enough to make the reservation over the internet, and even reserve your first-class seats....if you wanted. Hungry? Most of the long-distance trains offer a restaurant on-board, and for a higher-than-normal cost.....you can eat while you move along.
Fourth, for the inner-city areas....the subway and trolley-car operations can be figured out in a matter of minutes by gazing at the city metro map. Trains are numbered and you simply move from train to trolley to bus, and get to your final destination.
Fifth, yes, there are occasional specials for long distance travel. Don't plan on this occurring much....but it'll happen once in a while.
Negative things? When a bus breaks down in the middle of nowhere.....between a city and a town....don't anticipate a "rescue" bus for at least an hour.
No seats on the train available? Well....yeah, this does happen in the summer and you might be standing for an hour while you travel from point A to point B.
Trains don't cool that well in the summer? Well....yeah, if you get up into the 90-degree range, don't anticipate the AC system really doing that well. And if's up over 95-degrees....I'd advise you pause on your trip until after 3PM.
The Bahn-card discount? If you rarely travel long distance.....the Bahn-card may be worthless. It tends to offer ten to thirty percent discounts.....depending on which card you bought. If you intend to travel at least once a month, to a destination that's two to four hours away....then the Bahn-card is worth the money.
The biggest negative that an American can come up with? Well....there are two issues that I tend to see. First, if you are lugging two bags with you....to reach an airport....train travel is lousy. There just isn't a great method of getting on the car, and storing your bags. It's a hassle. If you just have one overnight bag.....then just tote it onboard and slide it under your seat. The second issue involves these once a year strikes that tend to occur with the Bahn folks. If you do return from a vacation spot on a Sunday....to the Frankfurt airport.....you might discover that the Bahn is barely running. You might have to schedule a hotel for the night and wait till the next day before you can return to your home just two hours away by train.
First, train travel is exceptionally safe, and for the most part....runs on time. Sure...about every four months....there's some rail accident but if you consider the number of miles of track and the number of trains running every single day....it's pretty safe. As for on-time rates? Well....typically, it's the winter months where you see trains running thirty to sixty minutes behind schedule....especially with heavy snowfall occurring.
Second, as you draw a circle around every major city in Germany.....there's this massive bus operation that is dependable and within the cost range that people demand. I will admit....some towns get served by one bus an hour.....over a ten-hour day, and maybe that's not exactly the best of schedules, but it's better than nothing.
Third, if you stood up in Mainz, and wanted to make a weekend trip to Berlin....it's simple enough to make the reservation over the internet, and even reserve your first-class seats....if you wanted. Hungry? Most of the long-distance trains offer a restaurant on-board, and for a higher-than-normal cost.....you can eat while you move along.
Fourth, for the inner-city areas....the subway and trolley-car operations can be figured out in a matter of minutes by gazing at the city metro map. Trains are numbered and you simply move from train to trolley to bus, and get to your final destination.
Fifth, yes, there are occasional specials for long distance travel. Don't plan on this occurring much....but it'll happen once in a while.
Negative things? When a bus breaks down in the middle of nowhere.....between a city and a town....don't anticipate a "rescue" bus for at least an hour.
No seats on the train available? Well....yeah, this does happen in the summer and you might be standing for an hour while you travel from point A to point B.
Trains don't cool that well in the summer? Well....yeah, if you get up into the 90-degree range, don't anticipate the AC system really doing that well. And if's up over 95-degrees....I'd advise you pause on your trip until after 3PM.
The Bahn-card discount? If you rarely travel long distance.....the Bahn-card may be worthless. It tends to offer ten to thirty percent discounts.....depending on which card you bought. If you intend to travel at least once a month, to a destination that's two to four hours away....then the Bahn-card is worth the money.
The biggest negative that an American can come up with? Well....there are two issues that I tend to see. First, if you are lugging two bags with you....to reach an airport....train travel is lousy. There just isn't a great method of getting on the car, and storing your bags. It's a hassle. If you just have one overnight bag.....then just tote it onboard and slide it under your seat. The second issue involves these once a year strikes that tend to occur with the Bahn folks. If you do return from a vacation spot on a Sunday....to the Frankfurt airport.....you might discover that the Bahn is barely running. You might have to schedule a hotel for the night and wait till the next day before you can return to your home just two hours away by train.
Saturday, April 7, 2012
With Greatness, Comes Responsibility
A decade ago, Gunter Grass, of renown writing fame in Germany.....walked on water.
Then one day....Gunter came around to admitting that he had actually had been in World War II.....which had been something that had been kind of hinted that he missed out on because of his youthful age. He came to admit that he wasn't just in the German Army at 17, which alot of young German "boys" would admit as well....but he was in the Waffen SS group.
So in 2006....Gunter Grass admitted to his past....he no longer walked on water. He might have still been listed as one of the top ten German writers of all time....but he was looked in a different way.
This week....Gunter Grass got around to publishing a poem (What Must Be Said). The topic of the poem? A fair amount of negativity leveled at Israel for the suggestion of attacking Iran because of the brewing nuke weapon episode.
Gunter says it's all so unfair that the media piles onto him and that they just understand his intent in this poem business. The quote I grabbed from Gunter off the "Local"...."That is quite hurtful and not worthy of a democratic press."......says a good bit about his approach to criticism on Israel.
The problem I see here....is that if the poem had come from Huns, the local tire dealer, or Johann, the local baker....the criticism would have been limited to the local village and a couple of folks who just said it was a stupid poem. Gunter Grass is Gunter Grass.....you have higher expectations with him and his vision of life, liberty, human character, youth, innocence, the pursuit of happiness, and society.
There are a couple of societies in existence today....where everything Gunter Grass writes....would be reviewed by someone who would make a decision if if angered or upset anyone in the government. Had Gunter wrote a pro-Israel piece in Iran....we wouldn't be hearing about it because it would never have been published. If Gunter Grass had written a anti-Nazi poem in 1944, no one in Germany would have ever published it.
The real story here, is that Gunter lives in a great place.....a great society....a vibrant economy, and has to be his own judge in what he writes and publishes. If he doesn't like criticism.....he ought to pump up his own reviewing process a notch or two. Or grow up to accept harsh criticism over what he writes.
Then one day....Gunter came around to admitting that he had actually had been in World War II.....which had been something that had been kind of hinted that he missed out on because of his youthful age. He came to admit that he wasn't just in the German Army at 17, which alot of young German "boys" would admit as well....but he was in the Waffen SS group.
So in 2006....Gunter Grass admitted to his past....he no longer walked on water. He might have still been listed as one of the top ten German writers of all time....but he was looked in a different way.
This week....Gunter Grass got around to publishing a poem (What Must Be Said). The topic of the poem? A fair amount of negativity leveled at Israel for the suggestion of attacking Iran because of the brewing nuke weapon episode.
Gunter says it's all so unfair that the media piles onto him and that they just understand his intent in this poem business. The quote I grabbed from Gunter off the "Local"...."That is quite hurtful and not worthy of a democratic press."......says a good bit about his approach to criticism on Israel.
The problem I see here....is that if the poem had come from Huns, the local tire dealer, or Johann, the local baker....the criticism would have been limited to the local village and a couple of folks who just said it was a stupid poem. Gunter Grass is Gunter Grass.....you have higher expectations with him and his vision of life, liberty, human character, youth, innocence, the pursuit of happiness, and society.
There are a couple of societies in existence today....where everything Gunter Grass writes....would be reviewed by someone who would make a decision if if angered or upset anyone in the government. Had Gunter wrote a pro-Israel piece in Iran....we wouldn't be hearing about it because it would never have been published. If Gunter Grass had written a anti-Nazi poem in 1944, no one in Germany would have ever published it.
The real story here, is that Gunter lives in a great place.....a great society....a vibrant economy, and has to be his own judge in what he writes and publishes. If he doesn't like criticism.....he ought to pump up his own reviewing process a notch or two. Or grow up to accept harsh criticism over what he writes.
Friday, April 6, 2012
Just Another Gerhard Day
About a decade ago in Germany....then Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder (SPD) tossed a remarkable piece of legislation into the middle of the Bundestag. There were two basic pieces to this.
First, it would change employment laws...which would make it easier for companies to hire people. This was supposed to stimulate the unemployment situation and bring more folks onto the tax roles. In essence....more tax revenue would be forthcoming.
The second piece was controversial in nature.....it would change the German welfare system. It would flip the whole system upside down, decrease the amount of money flowing out, and force people sitting around at home to be a bit more aggressive about getting a job. It lessen the burden on the tax revenue pot by decreasing funding going out.
This was not a simple sell....even to his own party members. It took around eighteen months to get enough folks on board, and it finally was state law.
To be honest....the change to the employment laws was not a negative thing.....and it was quickly accepted by the public. It was a positive step.
The welfare change? From day one....it was hated by those on German welfare. The name.....Hartz IV (four) would be brought up on a daily basis by various new media people.....usually in a negative way. Story after story would be told of some poor couple....both unemployed for five or ten years....barely surviving now off soup. Around 2009, there was a report that around five million Germans had fallen into the Hartz IV pit during that year....some temporary, and some permanent. It was a big deal.
Time has passed, and in the past year....several journalists have come to view the "greatness" of Gerhard Schroeder and how Merkel today is enjoying the fruits of what Gerhard planted. This repainting of Gerhard Schroeder is kind of comical in some ways....because he was disliked by a vast number of Germans toward the end of his Chancellorship.
At the end of his first period as Chancellor....it was a pretty fair bet that he would lose in the election. Most folks came to regard him as a empty suit. He had no real leadership values, but he looked like a first-class Chancellor. Luckily for him....the potential invasion by the US into Iraq was being debated, and he turned it into the only significant topic for the election. So Germans were voting to stop America from the invasion.....if they voted for him. By the narrowest of margins.....Germans awoke the day after election to discover that Gerhard Schroeder would be around for another four years (potentially). The negativity poll a month before the election? Well.....he barely had thirty percent of the nation behind him. A month after the election.....he barely had thirty percent of the nation behind him.
Comedians made weekly jokes on Schroeder, and respect for the guy went to a all-time low within three months after the election. Within months, there was enough of a challenge....that another election was being discussed. If you simply stood on a street corner....you'd be hard-pressed to find twenty adult Germans out of a hundred, that readily supported the guy.
So the next election occurred on 18 September 2005. The CDU/CSU folks took a slim one-point lead....which would allow them to form the government. The problem was....their FDP friends who ought to be the partner to make the 50-percent point....didn't have enough votes....to make that possible.
So in walks Gerhard Schroeder, who says that the SPD would refuse a partnership with the CDU/CSU....and this would mean that the Merkel team would be unable to partner with anyone. It was a odd moment on TV when this hint was given. It meant that after X number of days....the number two party in this election....the SPD (Schroeder and team) would be given a chance to bring together a government.
But now, this odd comment comes out of the FDP folks. The SPD and their Green associates.....didn't have 50-percent. So they would need the FDP to partner-up in a three-party government. And the leader of the FDP....didn't just hint, but boldly announced that they would never (under any circumstances) partner with Gerhard Schroeder.
Over the next day or two....you could sense by various comments on TV that the entire top level of the SPD was disappointed with where things were going.....and the support for Schroeder disappeared in a matter of days.
As Gerhard Schroeder walked out the front door.....he ended up with a job working for the Russian natural gas folks.....which infuriated almost all of his former associates.
Eight years have passed, and with this effort to make Gerhard's ideas look great and bring back the love-ability of Gerhard....comes this new suggestion that Gerhard has a new economic plan for Germany.....entitled Agenda 2030.
My humble guess is that a handful of journalists are taking the ball on this....because almost no one in the SPD party wants to bring up Gerhard's name anymore. Folks are hoping that the unhappy feelings from 2005 are gone....that the Hartz IV welfare folks have forgotten who put them into miserable conditions.....and that everyone will just accept some kind words from a handful of journalists on this topic.
First, it would change employment laws...which would make it easier for companies to hire people. This was supposed to stimulate the unemployment situation and bring more folks onto the tax roles. In essence....more tax revenue would be forthcoming.
The second piece was controversial in nature.....it would change the German welfare system. It would flip the whole system upside down, decrease the amount of money flowing out, and force people sitting around at home to be a bit more aggressive about getting a job. It lessen the burden on the tax revenue pot by decreasing funding going out.
This was not a simple sell....even to his own party members. It took around eighteen months to get enough folks on board, and it finally was state law.
To be honest....the change to the employment laws was not a negative thing.....and it was quickly accepted by the public. It was a positive step.
The welfare change? From day one....it was hated by those on German welfare. The name.....Hartz IV (four) would be brought up on a daily basis by various new media people.....usually in a negative way. Story after story would be told of some poor couple....both unemployed for five or ten years....barely surviving now off soup. Around 2009, there was a report that around five million Germans had fallen into the Hartz IV pit during that year....some temporary, and some permanent. It was a big deal.
Time has passed, and in the past year....several journalists have come to view the "greatness" of Gerhard Schroeder and how Merkel today is enjoying the fruits of what Gerhard planted. This repainting of Gerhard Schroeder is kind of comical in some ways....because he was disliked by a vast number of Germans toward the end of his Chancellorship.
At the end of his first period as Chancellor....it was a pretty fair bet that he would lose in the election. Most folks came to regard him as a empty suit. He had no real leadership values, but he looked like a first-class Chancellor. Luckily for him....the potential invasion by the US into Iraq was being debated, and he turned it into the only significant topic for the election. So Germans were voting to stop America from the invasion.....if they voted for him. By the narrowest of margins.....Germans awoke the day after election to discover that Gerhard Schroeder would be around for another four years (potentially). The negativity poll a month before the election? Well.....he barely had thirty percent of the nation behind him. A month after the election.....he barely had thirty percent of the nation behind him.
Comedians made weekly jokes on Schroeder, and respect for the guy went to a all-time low within three months after the election. Within months, there was enough of a challenge....that another election was being discussed. If you simply stood on a street corner....you'd be hard-pressed to find twenty adult Germans out of a hundred, that readily supported the guy.
So the next election occurred on 18 September 2005. The CDU/CSU folks took a slim one-point lead....which would allow them to form the government. The problem was....their FDP friends who ought to be the partner to make the 50-percent point....didn't have enough votes....to make that possible.
So in walks Gerhard Schroeder, who says that the SPD would refuse a partnership with the CDU/CSU....and this would mean that the Merkel team would be unable to partner with anyone. It was a odd moment on TV when this hint was given. It meant that after X number of days....the number two party in this election....the SPD (Schroeder and team) would be given a chance to bring together a government.
But now, this odd comment comes out of the FDP folks. The SPD and their Green associates.....didn't have 50-percent. So they would need the FDP to partner-up in a three-party government. And the leader of the FDP....didn't just hint, but boldly announced that they would never (under any circumstances) partner with Gerhard Schroeder.
Over the next day or two....you could sense by various comments on TV that the entire top level of the SPD was disappointed with where things were going.....and the support for Schroeder disappeared in a matter of days.
As Gerhard Schroeder walked out the front door.....he ended up with a job working for the Russian natural gas folks.....which infuriated almost all of his former associates.
Eight years have passed, and with this effort to make Gerhard's ideas look great and bring back the love-ability of Gerhard....comes this new suggestion that Gerhard has a new economic plan for Germany.....entitled Agenda 2030.
My humble guess is that a handful of journalists are taking the ball on this....because almost no one in the SPD party wants to bring up Gerhard's name anymore. Folks are hoping that the unhappy feelings from 2005 are gone....that the Hartz IV welfare folks have forgotten who put them into miserable conditions.....and that everyone will just accept some kind words from a handful of journalists on this topic.
Monday, April 2, 2012
The Pirate 'Booty'
Several German news sources are carrying comments from the weekend over the German Pirate Party, and it's arrival at the national level. The belief is....this political party....may pull anywhere from five to nine percent, which means means they will be getting representation at the Bundestag, when the next big election occurs. There are several things to observe. First, the FDP folks will be very lucky to pull at least five percent, and some folks speculate that they just won't get enough votes to get representation (you have to get five or more, to get into the Bundestag).
Second, if the Pirate Party pulls up eight or nine percent of the vote....where exactly are they taking votes away? I would speculate that both of the major parties (the CDU and SPD) would lose two percent each.
Third, who votes for the Pirate Party? Well....mostly people around the ages of eighteen to twenty-five. I doubt that you'd find many voters over fifty years old, who would vote for the party. Their big policy areas.....circle around ideas or problems that younger voters would gravitate to and support.
Fourth and final....there just might be this weird scenario where the CDU/CSU folks pull 39 percent of the national vote, the FDP pulls five percent, and then they decide to partner up with the Pirate Party. I'm the one suggesting that....not any German analyst. I suspect most of the big political analysts would never seen the CDU partnering up with the Pirate 'kids'. You can't really call the Pirates a radical right or radical left group. They are mostly an issue group. And they've used the internet a great deal to get the youth vote out.
So, the Pirates have arrived, and have some booty finally. They can appear on national political chat shows. They will be forced to comment that they really don't have more than a dozen major topics that they care about. I doubt if they have a Syria-policy, or a autobahn-speed-policy, or a position on relations with China. But they will represent roughly seven percent of the folks who vote, and that counts for something. And for the folks over seventy? They are likely standing there and shaking their heads....thinking these punk kids never voted before, and now? They have to contend with a bunch of "Pirates"?
Sunday, April 1, 2012
The German Dew
So I bought a German Mountain Dew....expecting it to taste the same. Well....it just wasn't the same Dew. It was actually a sweeter type taste.....almost like Fanta.
This brings me around to this odd topic.....does German Pepsi taste the same as US Pepsi? Does US Coke taste like German Coke?
My humble opinion is that they are slightly different in taste....maybe a one-percent difference....but you still detect something different. My guess is that the soft drink guys do some research and figure....if a German wants something different....give it to them. The soft drink folks don't worry about an American walking into this situation and asking stupid questions.....at least they hope that doesn't happen.
So if you come around to Germany, and notice the Mountain Dew at the local gas station, and you really like American-flavored Mountain Dew.....don't tempt yourself. Just skip the German version.
The Swiss Tax Episode
Two years ago....some German tax investigation guys stumbled across this opportunity. A number of Germans, which we have no idea how many.....had moved their money across the border into Switzerland, and put it secretly into accounts that involve no taxation. Swiss banks....usually known for their secret business dealings....ensured some discretion. Well....a Swiss bank clerk who was very unhappy with his Swiss bank....downloaded all the account numbers and names of Germans connected to them. He turns around sells this CD to the German tax investigation guys.
This episode started up a huge mess for the Swiss bankers. A number of Germans had to come over to the German tax office, admit their issues, and pay taxes. They weren't happy about this, and in most cases....they probably removed all their funds from the Swiss banks. Anger and hostility in Switzerland over the purchase of this CD has been significant in banking circles.
This past week....the Swiss finally decided to issue warrants for the arrest of the three German tax investigators. The charge? Economic espionage.
At the public level in Germany....I doubt if many people care about the charges or the implications. Around political circles....if you read various German newspapers....there is some worry. The Swiss folks could try to make the warrants effective in Germany....which would mean the detention and the examination by the German court system over the legitimate means of getting information outside of Germany. The question of who authorized the purchase of the data will also come up.
The three German tax guys? I'm guessing that all three have gone to a lawyer and tried to figure out how messy this might become. Even if the German courts say 'no' on the warrants....other European countries could examine the warrants and make them effective....so when Huns or Johann go off to Greece or Austria for a vacation.....they might be arrested. Would the German government try to recover them? Would there be some negotiation involved to toss out the warrants? You just don't know the end result of this.
So tonight, you can imagine Johann the tax investigator....sitting on his balcony with a beer....looking at the stars and wondering how he ever got into the tax investigation business. What would a Swiss jail look like and how long might he dwell in such a prison? Meanwhile.....a couple hundred millionaires in Germany are feeling like some revenge has been accomplished in their favor. Every single German tax investigation member....now has to worry about how he gets his information. My humble guess is that for the remainder of this year....nothing much happens on investigations outside of Germany. Management will be angry over this attitude and demand people actually do their job.....I suspect that someone has finally opened up a can of worms, and no one feels good about it.
This episode started up a huge mess for the Swiss bankers. A number of Germans had to come over to the German tax office, admit their issues, and pay taxes. They weren't happy about this, and in most cases....they probably removed all their funds from the Swiss banks. Anger and hostility in Switzerland over the purchase of this CD has been significant in banking circles.
This past week....the Swiss finally decided to issue warrants for the arrest of the three German tax investigators. The charge? Economic espionage.
At the public level in Germany....I doubt if many people care about the charges or the implications. Around political circles....if you read various German newspapers....there is some worry. The Swiss folks could try to make the warrants effective in Germany....which would mean the detention and the examination by the German court system over the legitimate means of getting information outside of Germany. The question of who authorized the purchase of the data will also come up.
The three German tax guys? I'm guessing that all three have gone to a lawyer and tried to figure out how messy this might become. Even if the German courts say 'no' on the warrants....other European countries could examine the warrants and make them effective....so when Huns or Johann go off to Greece or Austria for a vacation.....they might be arrested. Would the German government try to recover them? Would there be some negotiation involved to toss out the warrants? You just don't know the end result of this.
So tonight, you can imagine Johann the tax investigator....sitting on his balcony with a beer....looking at the stars and wondering how he ever got into the tax investigation business. What would a Swiss jail look like and how long might he dwell in such a prison? Meanwhile.....a couple hundred millionaires in Germany are feeling like some revenge has been accomplished in their favor. Every single German tax investigation member....now has to worry about how he gets his information. My humble guess is that for the remainder of this year....nothing much happens on investigations outside of Germany. Management will be angry over this attitude and demand people actually do their job.....I suspect that someone has finally opened up a can of worms, and no one feels good about it.
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