Over the weekend, it finally came out in Germany that there will not be any treaty with the US over a no-spying clause. The Germans had folks in DC for a number of days prior to Christmas, and had hoped for a simple policy....which both Germany and France would be parties to the same deal.
Now? Well, there's a slight hint of some additional meetings. NDR....Germany's regional state-run TV media from the north part of the country....reports that it's mostly a dismal feeling over expectations now. There's nothing of value from the past meetings....so zero hope on future episodes.
What happens next? I'm guessing a couple of the more liberal members of the new combined CDU/CSU/SPD government will talk up the idea of bringing Snowden into Germany, and go into a 'pushing-match' with the US. The US isn't sure of nothing much over what Snowden took. You can imagine some hostility on the US part....if suddenly Snowden showed up in some German city, and started public talks which got onto CNN and various networks daily. The Russian deal was that he had to kinda be quiet and not talk much....to stay. The Germans would want the opposite approach.
In the game of poker, you typically want good odds to continue a game. If there's not any favorable odds....you terminate the hand, and accept minimal losses. I'm not sure how Germany appreciates the current game, and if they see good odds with Snowden playing within the German border.
Would the US tolerate Snowden being a puppet in this German game? Would the US shrink it's military presence in Germany....just to send a message? Would the current administration shrink it's European connections in retaliation?
There are only three simple facts in this whole mess as I see them. First, Snowden's mass of knowledge is unknown, and could be even more shocking. Second, Germans naively felt they were 'friends' for the past decade, now naively think they aren't 'friends', and naively think spying is mostly only done by the NSA folks. Third, you can sense a bigger mess unraveling from this whole thing....once Snowden is brought into Germany and he becomes a source for daily news from the various cable news networks.
If you were looking for a five-star mess for Germany to start 2014 with.....well, this is it.
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