Monday, April 14, 2014

Germany, Ukraine, and Russia

For whatever reason....Germany has started this week off with comments over dire consequences of the Ukraine and its situation.

German Foreign Minister Steinmeier made the quote of the day:  “It cannot be, seven decades after the end of the second world war and 25 years after the end of the cold war, that we start changing borders based on ethnic, linguistic or religious factors.“

One of Merkel's spokesmen put in the best've got paramilitary guys wandering around....pretending to be military....then pretending to be civilian.  This opens up a can of worms, if any armed conflict starts up.

Since the Berlin Wall went down....Germany has been disarming it's military.  Between the SPD and Greens....with mild cooperation by the CDU/'s been a step-by-step process.  Logically, it didn't make any sense because everyone saw Russia as a somewhat warm friendly neighbor.  No one foresaw any bullying tactics as a future problem.

The US master plan for disarming?  Well...since the early 90's....we've been cutting on installations and troops in Europe.  There's no we continually viewed the future.  Even now.....there's likely dozens of minor cuts hidden on future plans of this administration until 2016 for European deployed US troops.

The odds of Russia being able to invade Europe itself?  Zero.  But there's this curious thing that has occurred over the past twenty years.  Russians have packed up and left Russia.

They are mostly disinterested in staying because of economic issues, jobs, and corruption.  3.5 million Russians have come to live in Germany today.

If you stop any Russian on the streets of Wiesbaden.....ask them over local conditions and if they'd like to go back to where they were.....most would laugh and say no.  They found better circumstances.

The Russians in the Ukraine?  To some was a easy entry point, a simple job, and one step up in the world of economics.  The Ukraine had deals brewing with various European countries, and a number of companies were showing profit margins....something you can't find with most Russian companies (unless you talk natural gas or oil).

All it took were some thugs to enter the Ukraine picture, talk negative about government, and a week or two've got problems.  In some ways.....I'm guessing that the Germans are asking some stupid questions now.

In the spring of 1914....nobody in Europe foresaw a war being imminent.  From 1870 to 1914....what Prussian military generals generally said.....was that a short war was just around the corner.  They saw this as their mark of confidence.  They'd fight some threat, who didn't have any support from other countries.....and run a twelve-month war.  For several decades....the Prussian military ran things in full confidence of their abilities.

The assassination of Archduke Ferdinand occurred on 28 June.    The dozen-odd events to start the war ran up to 1 August, and then spilled over with dissolved relations taking less than a day or two.  No German really believes in a repeat of the 1914 episode.....but no one really saw the Ukraine falling this way either.....over a silly trade deal with the EU.  No hostility....just a stupid trade deal to open up markets and put more jobs and money into Ukraine.  All of this?  Worth fighting some guerrilla war or Russian invasion over?  That's the sad part of the story.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Great article!! I've been reading your articles on the Ukraine and think they're great! Keep up the fantastic work! An Ami in Köln.