For those who don't follow the BREXIT business much....a simple update. The deadline exit date came and passed, and the UK is still in the EU today (thanks to PM May). This eventually triggered her resignation because she can't conclude a BREXIT Trade Treaty with the EU that the Parliament will sign off on. So a PM contest is underway, which does NOT require a new national vote (just a party vote). The French in the past week have said that October is now the final exit point....the Brits must exit. But the EU hasn't said that. And the topping on the cake is that some Brits have now said that if NO treaty comes to exist, then the 'divorce' pay-out of 44-billion Euro to the EU (from the British) will NOT occur.
So the question is....does that potential missing 44-billion Euro matter?
It's odd, very few of the news media folks have asked this question. I'm not just talking about the Brit BBC, or the London Times....but even in Germany, the 44-billion Euro never comes up as a topic.
Does the EU need the 44-billion Euro? Well....here's the insider view. On the basis of the UK leaving, there is a budget shortfall within their budget plan. Normally, if you were a company, you'd just downsize the budget....cut a few things....and proceed on. For the EU, this budget process is very messy and no one wants to get into the middle of it to suggest a cut or two (or thousand).
Also, if the 44-billion doesn't show up.....who makes up for it if there is no cut? Oh yeah....that's a little issue brewing. Germany and France? It's very likely that they'd have to find around half of this sum of money out of their budgets. Go ask Chancellor Merkel the odds of finding 14-billion Euro laying around. She'll just grin and waltz out of the room.
The blunt truth is that the EU needs that 'divorce-payment' more than people will admit. If the German public figures out that they are going to be handed an EU-bill of fourteen-billion Euro, then some folks are going to start asking more questions about what the money really does or how the EU works. The more they dig into it.....the less likely they will be to accept EU domination. It just invites public frustration.
So what would the EU give up for that forty-four billion Euro? A simple no-cost trade agreement? Well....yeah, that's the real question.
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