1. What triggered this new political crisis in Germany?
Well, the results of this EU election (10 days ago) really hyped up the ongoing leadership woes of the SPD Party (junior partner of Merkel's coalition). The leadership decided that the party chief (Nahles) had to be dismissed out of the leadership function. Adding to the issue, we are about a hundred days out from a period of three eastern Germany state elections, and it kinda looks bleak for SPD outcomes.
2. Was Nahles (the SPD Party chief) a place-holder?
This is something that rarely gets brought up. Once they made the decision that Martin Schulz (the SPD Chancellor candidate in 2017's national election) had to be pushed out.....there really wasn't anyone standing there with a 'puffed-up' appearance for the role of party chief. It was just her luck to be standing there and various players in the party figured that a female role model might help.
3. New party chief, new direction?
Well, this is the current idea. In roughly three weeks, the SPD folks will meet and vote up the replacement. The thinking is that he (or she) will state the time is right to leave the coalition, and go hardcore anti-CDU or anti-Merkel.
4. If the CDU-CSU-SPD coalition goes away, then what?
There are three scenarios: (a) Merkel brings in the Greens and FDP Party....talks over their possibility, and a new coalition is created. (b) Merkel goes to something that has never been used in German politics....a minority government. This means that the SPD folks, the Greens, and Linke Party would have a majority of votes and could vote down anything that the CDU does. It's a fairly weak form of government and very likely to trigger an election within six months. (c) Basically call for a national election within ninety days. This isn't a great deal for the SPD because they are ranked at around 16-percent in polling right now.
5. All this drama leads back to Merkel?
Yep, more or less. She has no magic cards to lay out, and frankly....the public has reached a point where they'd like a new Chancellor, but can't find anyone to fit the role. If we go to a minority government, it would mean chaos....week by week, and probably lessen Merkel's legendary status.
6. What's with this SPD dramatic slide?
Back in September 2005, when Merkel came onto the scene as Chancellor.....she did one curious change with the CDU Party. She melted them into the center-point on almost every single topic. Prior to that, the CDU folks were right-of-center.
The SPD Party found themselves looking very much like the CDU Party, and public perception went to the lines of the CDU message and theme being slightly better. The SPD Party couldn't remake themselves without looking far-left.
If you talked to CDU folks.....probably a quarter of them are fed up with Merkel's center-point agenda and want the party to be further to the right.
7. Isn't all of this leading to the Greens being ahead of the SPD?
YES. There's no doubt that the polling is correct, with Greens around 20-percent presently, and likely to rise two points over the next couple of months (especially with the three state elections coming up). The Greens left-of-center view is helping.
8. Can the SPD folks find the right boss to recover?
If you watch public TV, that argument is debated a good bit, and it goes nowhere. Ideally, this would be the moment when the Finance Minister (former Mayor of Hamburg)....Olaf Scholz....would stand up and take the job. However, he just doesn't have that much public appeal. If you were talking about an entirely new fresh start and new 'look'.....Scholz probably isn't the guy for the job.
9. Are the three state elections coming up in the fall a big deal now?
You could suggest that. But here's the odd factor.....in general, the Linke Party and the AfD Party are figured to take forty-percent of the vote (combined) in all three elections. The SPD Party doesn't really figure to take more than 12-percent in any of the three elections. The Greens might have a chance to come up with some 15-to-20 percent win and puff-up their national view.
10. Are we near the Merkel exit?
This is a debatable view. Its very possible that a coalition with the Greens and FDP would work out, and we'd go to the fall of 2021. If an election does occur toward the end of this year....it would not be a positive period for the CDU and the new Chancellor candidate (assuming AKK is the one).
So you ought to expect a bit more drama out of this summer in Germany.
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