Political Spectrum

I was out of Germany for four days, and a fair amount of chaos ensued.

What was generally expected with the junior coalition partner party.....the SPD....finally occurred.  The chief of the Party (Nahles) resigned.  She'd been in charge of the party for roughly two years, and was more of a 'place-holder' than anything else. 

The temp-chief now?  Well.....three junior members of the party stepped up and will carry the party (yeah, it's weird but it's the contraption that the leadership chose).  At least the three are fairly well known in the country, and all three said their names will not be submitted for the role when the big meeting occurs in three weeks.

So what happens now? 

There is the worry that whoever steps up.....will cancel out the partnership with Merkel and bring down the government.  Would Merkel (from the CDU) fail to arrange a new partnership?  Her option is basically the CDU-CSU-Greens-FDP, run as a minority government (never been done in German history), or call for a new election.  If you remember at the end of 2017.....the FDP and Greens were invited in and after about six to seven weeks.....the FDP said 'no'.....this partnership can't work.

To who takes over the SPD?  I see three possible scenarios.  First, the SPD Foreign Minister (Heiko Maas) steps up.  I doubt if he wants the job.  Second, the SPD Finance Minister (Olaf Scholz, former mayor of Hamburg).  Scholz desperately wants the job and would like to run in the next election as Chancellor candidate....however, it's an inopportune situation and he'd have to dismantle the partnership....meaning he might be giving the Greens a major chance here.  Finally, they might go to a rather unknown character.....as a weird 'place-holder' senario. 

If another election were forced?  Right now.....the Greens are firmly in second place, and near 20-percent in polls.  I think they could get near 25-percent, and literally dump the SPD Party into a serious minor position (worst situation since 1940s).  Oddly, three state elections are set in eastern Germany for the fall, and you really wouldn't want this election to occur in the midst that activity.  I think if there was a new election....it'd be arranged for near November/December (after the elections).

As for the new election idea affecting Merkel?  She won't run again (she already said that).  The current figure that would be the candidate for them?  AKK.  She doesn't poll well, and that helps the Greens yet again.  Some suspect that a new figure for the CDU has to arrive (beyond Merkel or AKK).

Chaos?  Back at the end of 2016, a number of Germans were hoping that Merkel would move on, and a new image would arrive for Germany.  Well....that group is currently frustrated and would like for something 'new' to occur (they aren't exactly pro-SPD or pro-Merkel, or even pro-CDU.  They just want change.

All of this benefits Habeck from the Greens.  My continual big scenario is that Habeck moves up with enough votes and becomes the new Chancellor for four years, and leads to more eventual votes for the AfD Party to be near 16 to 20 percent in national voting.  The fringe to fringe scenario....I call it.