BREXIT II?

 I was reading a piece (just one journalistic discussion) over the idea that the 'right' people are now lining up in the EU and in the UK gov't to undo BREXIT.  It wouldn't happen in 2024 or 2025....but their discussion led to the idea that the next UK election in early 2025....would bring the 'right' final segment of people into the Brit government to change things.

I sat for the past twelve hours....thinking over the suggestion.

I've come to this opinion that a fair number of British are in a state of confusion (various issues) and that you might be able to persuade a quarter of the exit-folks....to flip slides and vote to rejoin.  

But then I came to this one single issue....all of the negatives that Brits talked about for two decades about the EU....still linger in place, and would still be there in 2026 or 2027....as they rejoin.

Would they just grumble and say the EU can't be fixed.....but we need to be a part of it?

I hate to suggest this....but I think within five years after re-joining the EU...another exit-the-EU group would exist, and BREXIT II would occur by 2035.  

It's like a divorce situation where you really have thrills with the wife, but you hate her spending of money, her constant chatter over stress/turmoil, and her smoking.  So you divorce her...only to find a year later that on the lust index.....she's a '10'.  Then you remarry her to find all the problems still exist.  

You know it's bad when you compare the UK, the EU and a lustful situation all in one analytical situation.  

What's The Situation If A New Federal Election Occurs In The Spring?

 Normally, the next national election Germany would be the fall of 2025.  Currently, with the budget crisis at hand....there's some suggestions that the government presently (SPD-Greens-FDP) will collapse.  

If a collapse occurs?  Well...the SPD would go and ask for a month to talk to the CDU-CSU Parties....to possibly work out a deal....allowing the government to stay on and avoid a new election.

How the CDU-CSU Parties would react?  I'm guessing they would walk in and ask for the 75-percent of the cabinet posts, and an enormous amount of change to deportation/migration.

The SPD Party might be desperate enough to agree.  

But let's go to the next problem....this would only get them through 18 months.  

If a new coalition can't be formed?  Then an election occurs in the spring of 2024.

Likely winner?  CDU-CSU with 30-to-33 percent of the vote.  The SPD might be lucky to get in the 14-to-16 percent range.  The Greens?  Mostly the same position.

A partnership with either the SPD or Greens?  Well....yeah, that's what you come back.

The new BWS Party and the AfD Party?  They can together take around around 30-percent of the national vote, but no one will seek a coalition with either as a partner.

So the CDU-CSU stuck in a tough position?  Oh yeah....and they really can't find some agreement that allows the bulk of their promises to occur....with either the SPD or Greens.

It's funny, from 1947 to this past election....the CDU-CSU Party and the SPD Party were always able to take 50-plus percent of the vote (together) and up to the late 1990s....they were together taking near 70-plus percent.  

Traffic Chatter

 My local metro region (Wiesbaden) came out and drew a new map of downtown, with speed limit changes.

The bulk of downtown presently has a speed limit of 50 kph (31 mph).  

Well....once the implementation occurs....this 'heart' of the city map will show mostly 30/40 kph (8.3 to 11 mph).

The discussion or angle to this?  Oddly enough....noise reduction.  Yeah, it is a bit comical...considering that the trend is going toward E-cars, which make no noise.

The general trend....if you were around in the 1980s and remember traffic in Wiesbaden in those days....things have become hectic and overgrown with traffic patterns.

I might agree...lower speeds will probably lessen accidents.  

In relation to Mainz 'rules'?  That's the funny part of the discussion....about two years ago, Mainz went to 30 kph as the norm throughout most all of the city.  

Four German News Stories

 1.  Cops this week in Bergen (north of Hannover) ended up arresting two teenagers (appear to be ages 15/16).  Charge?  There was a plan hatched up by one to steal a truck and run through a Christmas market in the area.....to kill people.

Non-German background?  Well....if you dig into this....they are Chechen.

How this was uncovered?  All cops say is that a outside-of-Germany source monitoring some chat-board....noted some comments made by one of the two.  

Terror charges?  Yeah.  But since both are juveniles....the sentence can only go up to age 20, then released.  They'd end up in a youth situation.

2.  Interesting WELT article written by Matthias Kamann today....if you can find it, I'd recommend a read.  

Basically, he lays out that a public negative sentiment is being display against the Green Party of Germany....over urban evolution that they pushing. The center of the discussion?  A lot of the current strategy is to subtract cars from inner-city use,  and give priority to public transportation and bicyclists.  

What the 'brand' of the Green Party is pushing.....isn't selling well to the general public.

3.  The budget hole for the German Finance Ministry?  For the 2024 budget, they need to cut around 17-billion Euro, and it's getting to a point where all three parties will suffer some 'pain'.

4.  Generally, if you ride a train or bus in Germany....without a ticket, the audit guys will issue a summons document, and you end up paying 60 Euro.  If you don't have the 60 Euro....you get a jail-period (usually a week or two).

Well...Wiesbaden officials are discussing continuing the fine business, but ending the jail situation....saying that usually it's poor people traveling without a ticket  and it's not right to send them off to jail.

So they say....a fine would still occur (even if they don't have the money). Not sure how this would work.  

Court Case

 About a year ago here in Wiesbaden, we had some guy in a 50 kph zone, who was driving 130 kph....in racing mode, who hit a car.

By the time the ambulance arrived....the other driver was dread.  I should note here....the dead driver wasn't wearing a seat-belt.  

So court action has been underway for the past month, and concluded this afternoon.  

Guilty.  Life sentence....meaning around 20 years, he can hope for some chance of being let out.  

Over the past five years, I've probably read of at least a dozen racing deaths....some in urban areas....some on autobahns....but the drivers got seriously stupid and triggered an accident with death involved.

Yeah, there's a fair amount anger over this aggressive driving problem.  

This guilty guy?  Twenty-five years old.  So the bulk of his productive life....gone.

Four Things I Figured Out This Week

 1.  In terms of the Ireland riots, and chatter by political folks over controlling news and information....I finally figured out that nightly news should be limited to three minutes, and that 95-percent of what is considered news....might incite people to do harm/damage.  Even telling the soccer score....might cause me to drink and riot.  I think we can lay out the bulk  of news reporters and just avoid knowing much about what's going on.

2.  If you tell a German woman that it's dangerous because of ice and snow to leave the home, with the police saying to avoid leaving home....it's a 90-percent chance that the German wife will demand you drive her to such-and-such sale or grocery store.  

And while in halted traffic because of extreme snow conditions....the same woman will question if we should have left home.

3.  People who utter 'racists'......usually are the racist themselves.

4.  There appears to be 20-percent of the public which are permanently in some state of distress or panic.

Snow Chatter

 In the past two days, I've had about 15 inches of snow (central Germany).  Yeah, it is a lot....typically, you get around two or three inches of snow.

So what I noticed on an attempt to 'escape' the village....traffic accidents, and the police closing various roads.  

This brings up the topic of people still using summer tires (in winter) and what problems you end up in.

If the cops review your vehicle and it's still got summer tires on.....that's an automatic 60 Euro fine, and one point on your license. 

If you caused an accident with summer tires on?  Well....your insurance will typically pay (not in all cases) but it'll end up as a dramatic increase.  If you shift over to another company....they will ask about accidents, and you might have to detail what triggered your last accident. 

Using the strategy of summer tires all year-round?  You could do this....as long as you planned to park the car in poor weather and just wait things out.  

Political Polling

 I noticed this afternoon a new N-TV political poll, if the election was held today.

The SPD has slipped....now down to 14-percent. They are behind the CDU-CSU (30-percent), the Greens (14.5-percent) and the AfD at 21-percent.

The FDP is marginally at 5-percent, with the Linke  Party at 4-percent.

What this means if an election was held?  It would be a rough choice for the CDU-CSU to find a partner....basically limited to the Greens or SPD.  

Oddly, 11-percent of those polled....didn't want the choices of the six.  

Local Bus Service Advertising

I noticed the Wiesbaden city bus service is looking trainee-drivers.

The career chatter?

 "Are you fascinated by large vehicles and especially buses? You like taking responsibility. Do you have a high level of service orientation for employees and customers? Do you have a passion for technology? You have a talent for organization and enjoy planning the deployment of people and vehicles to ensure that bus operations run smoothly. If these questions apply to you, then training to become a *driving specialist* is exactly the right thing for you."

To be honest, if you approached 10,000 folks....the vast majority would say 'no thanks'....they weren't into large vehicles.

So here's the catch.....first year's pay scale (39 hours per week)?  1,218 Euro.  You can figure after taxes, health insurance....you'd barely bring home 800 Euro.  It's just not that enticing.  But you get some pension points.  

The plus?  Free swimming pool pass.  

Necessity to have a license already?  No....not even a car-license.  You basically sign up for training, and they would also cover the car license...if you don't have one.  

That Gil Ofarim Case

 Well....it abruptly ended this AM.  

What this case was about....this pop-star in Germany....was arriving at a hotel as a VIP guest.  He is Jewish....for the sake of this discussion, and apparently wore the Star of David.

At the check-in....he said (claimed) that he was advised by the hotel check-in clerk.....that in the city (Leipzig), he might want to avoid wearing the Star of David.  He afterwards, went outside, and did some type of social media claim about this 'warning'.  

The hotel?  They say such of an encounter/warning....never occurred.  Evidence?  There's enough to suggest that the warning phrase, or notice of the Star of David....never occurred.

This AM....Ofarim finally stopped things in the case, and said he admits it was made-up (bogus).

End of the case?  I'm guessing that the hotel wants some type of apology (in writing and on his social media) and perhaps some settlement of cash (maybe they will just accept the apology alone). I also think court costs (judge, prosecutor, and police security) fall into play.  Just a humble guess....minimum of 15k Euro on court costs.    

Just an odd case, from beginning to end.  

Asylum Woes

 Just an odd position to debate.

The German Federal Interior Minister (Faeser, SPD Party) says that that even migrants who aren't deserving or entitled to asylum....have to be given entry into Germany so you can examine their case.  

This taking months?  Well...usually a hundred-odd days, and then if they seek to challenge the refusal....then you start to talk about several years of delay.

You can imagine the border entry points (or airports) and some person comes to declare themselves for asylum, but they don't fit into any of the top five or six reasons.  Logic would dictate you just say 'no' and they go back into France, Switzerland, Austria, or whatever....leaving them to some country for a burden.

German law dictates, that if you are in a safe 3rd country (France or Poland) for example....then asylum in Germany is a non-discussable topic.

This whole topic becoming a public-intense mess?  More or less.  

I'll just predict as the next election occurs....this will be brought up, and there's going to be an intense amount of control at German border points....where you might be sitting there for two or three hours....waiting to enter from your brief 2-hour shopping trouble across the German border....while the border guys 'control' things.  

Four German News Stories

 1.  WELT piece.  Opinion poll shows a majority of Germans (more than 50-percent) now believe that the budget crisis for the coalition gov't is such....that it will fall (meaning new election in 2024).

One other side event....even the states (16 of them) are worried that a lot of their planning for the past two years....revolved around the billions, which no longer exist....so they are pretty peeved.

2.  Lot of discussion by the Frankfurt cops over the soccer game from the weekend.....they want particular fans arrested for fighting....to be banned from the stadium in the future.

3.  The city government of Hannover has 'collapsed'.  It was a SPD-Green coalition city gov't.

Cause?  Well....the Greens pushed for a no-car inner-city/climate-friendly center.  Lot of hostility brewed up over this inner-city shutdown idea, and the SPD said 'enough'.

4.  N-TV had a piece this AM...talking over Germany and the heat-pump agenda.  The 'thrill' of going to the heat-pump?  It seems to have drastically subsided, and two-thirds of the Germans who own houses....don't want to engage in the renovation required.  Bad sign for the gov't?  Well....they would have to offer some type of 'credit' (cash funding) and presently....that's a 'joke'.

Three German News Stories

 1.  I noticed off business news....the German gov't handed down a new regulation....to start in January (2024).  'IF' there is some type of risk of overloading the power grid....there is some regulation to say heat pumps in homes and e-car charging....can continue to some degree.

The idea of full and unrestricted load?  Gone.

A shock?  No....I doubt it, but if you went and asked about this two years ago....it would have never come up as a major discussion.

2.  This soccer game from the weekend between Stuttgart and Frankfurt?  200 wounded fans from the violence before and after the game.

3.  Major snowfall in the central region.  Just in my village....four roads in and out....all have been closed since 3 PM.  More snow expected tonight, Tuesday and Wednesday.  Right now, I'd say 7 inches have fallen.  Probably will get up to 20 inches by the end.  

Mini-Burnout?

 My wife brought up a German phrase today...'mini-burnout'.

I had to go and look up the problem.  About five years ago....some Austrian doctors coined the term.  (Report here)

What this involves?  Well...when you hand some employee a task like mailing a package, or answering customer questions, or reacting to some unplanned task....they get 'freaked-out' (my term).

If you were born between 1984 and 1999.....you are more likely to have this 'problem'.

I probably wasted an hour reading over this odd topic.

Typically, it would be a problem that comes out of thin-air or some moment where you have to deal with angry customers/consumers.

Resolving this?  Well....the wife says this is typically where people have to exit the office....smoke a cigarette and have some confidence-building session with a second person in the office.

Same problem at home?  Well....I sat and pondered over this issue.  If things were that bad....I'd have to sip five or six shots of booze.  

Four Things I Expect To Occur In Europe In 2024

1.  I expect the Ukraine-Russia war to 'end'.  Basically, with marginal funding....Ukraine will find itself in a 'hole' and the only answer is to dissolve ownership of a chunk of the eastern side of Ukraine to the Russians.

For Russian-Ukrainians who might be happy over this....they will quickly find that it's a left-over war zone....all crapped-out in terms of infrastructure....and limited Russian funds to rebuild.  

For Russians who figure that the war is over, and the economic boycott is gone....they will wake up and realize that no one is fired up to engage in business.  The roughly 1.5-million Russians who quietly left the country?  They won't be returning.  

2.  Ireland?  I expect the coalition government to collapse by early spring, and new elections are a dramatic situation.  

3.  Germany?  I'm giving a 75-percent chance that the SPD-Green-FDP coalition will fail by spring, with a national election to be held around the EU election....something that the EU will not be happy over.  

4.  I expect NO coalition government to occur in the Netherlands in 2024....pressing for another election by the end of the year.  

A Little Voting Story

 It's not a front-page story (yet) in Germany, but in the next couple of weeks....things are to solidify, and the 2021 federal election that was held in Berlin....will BE repeated...likely taking place on 11 Feb 2024.  

Final details?  Well....still be written and it's not completely clear.  

What this goes to?  The German Constitutional Court will decide and announce on the 19th of December....how this will be finalized.  Most people say that on  the 19th....they will give a 60-day window for Berlin city authorities to prepare for the repeat.

So, you probably will ask....just how fu*ked-up this September 2021 election got in the city of Berlin, and I'll give you the basic story.

In the early part of 2021, with the Covid vaccine business all hyped-up on priorities....the city bosses said if you were a volunteer for the election business (9 months away)....you got top priority.  So a bunch of folks were in some fear mode, and decided that they would volunteer.  But as the vax stuff was accomplished, and the weeks passed....this crowd wasn't that interested in being volunteers.

So as you got up to August and all this training and preparation was to occur....the volunteer crowd...lessened, and went into non-volunteer status.  

City authorities grasping this?  I get the impression that as each week passed, they were just thinking.....'what-the-hell' and just kept preceding forward.  

Then we come to this odd problem that no one much thought much about.....the nation-wide vote was to be on a Sunday.....that happened to have a Berlin city-wide marathon situation going on.  So that complicated matters another notch.

Not enough ballots at various stations?  Yes....poor planning.

Folks came up and sued over the crappy election business.  

The chief question you might be asking?  Will this 'new' election change things in the Bundestag?  Well....it could influence a few things.

1.8-million voters showed up in September 2021.  Will the same number show up for the 'new' election?  I'd have my doubts.  It wouldn't shock me if the voter turn-out....went from 75-percent showing.....down to 55-percent showing.

Chief winner in 2021?  Mostly the SPD and CDU parties....Greens to some degree.  The Linke an AfD parties marginally had showings.  

At this point in 2024?  Polling kinda says that the CDU ought to take one-quarter of all votes, with the AfD near 15-percent.  Both the Greens and SPD will be in the 17-percent range.  

So I might go and suggest that when you add up the Bundestag numbers....the CDU bumps up a few more members, and the Greens/SPD bump down a few numbers.

If you were to ask if something like this 'new' election has ever been demanded by the court system?  It is just awful rare and unusual.  

Amusing?  No, I wouldn't go and suggest that, but you can stand and admire how Covid vaccinations fitted into the running of the election, and how people un-volunteered from ballot station participation.  

The Six Public Radio FM Stations of Hessen (My State)

 Public radio is financed by the public TV-media tax.  Basically, they get a 'cut' of the revenue....use some commercials to augment the station and deliver a product.

The six?

HR-Info.  Next year will be the 20th year of operation.  It's pure news....covering the whole spectrum.  

You-FM.  Well...it's geared toward the club scene in the state....at least originally, and I'd say it appeals to mostly the 16-to-25 year old youth group.  There's some occasional interviews/talk-shows....but it fits their format.  

HR-1.  It started in the late 1940s, and was geared for several decades as the prime news network for the whole state.  In 2004....they revamped HR-1 to be the 'oldies' network for the senior generation (mostly 1960s to 1980s music).  If you asked me today....I'd say it's gear for the 1970s to 1990s folks.  

HR-2.  The culture FM station, from readings of books to poetry.....from plays to classical concerts. 

HR-3.  Pop-music from the past twenty years.

HR-4.  Music from the 1960 to 1990s.  

Getting these?  You can load them on your laptop or Tab with the App functions.

Or you can get them via DVB-S, DVB-C, internet, FM or DAB-Plus.  

On my recommendation....I run HR-3 probably two hours a day for background music in the house.  

Do Germans Need Arms For Protection?

 This is one of those essays I write every few years and lay out vastly different landscape than what Americans typically think of.

First, I live on the outer ring of Wiesbaden (town of 285,000) and day or night....I  can venture out and have zero threats.  Within the heart of the city?  I can walk 100-percent of the town in daylight hours and feel zero threat.  A  walk at night?  I can point at three areas of town which I consider in some odd way as a 'no-go' area...mostly over druggies and snatch-and-go robberies (say after 10 PM).  

If I expand my travels to the whole state of Hessen?  About 99-percent of Hessen, I'd put in the category of absolute safe status....day or night.   The cities like Darmstadt, Frankfurt, or Hanau....they all have that same night-time list of areas to avoid.   

Finding some situation of characters trying to break into my house?  Ten years ago, it would have been ultra-rare to have a break-in.  In the past decade, break-ins have increased.  But typically, they are looking for unoccupied houses, and a situation of five minutes to snatch-and-go.

Weird characters running around and looking for physical threats with guns or knives?  It's just awful rare that you hear of some gunplay.  This week....over by the river in Wiesbaden....some gun-play took place....some idiot firing a round or two into a car...shattering glass and scaring the crap out of the occupant in the car.  Cops came to figure the guy who did the gunplay...arresting him, but not giving any logic or reason to act.

Knife threats?  This is the one you see on the rise.  It typically involves some juvenile (say 14 to early 20s) and working on a snatch-and-go strategy.

The idea of arming folks or needing it?  Anyone could go and apply for the license....just to have a pistol or rifle in their house.  Vast majority of people go without the necessity of the license or the pistol.  It's time consuming to get the license, but not impossible (unless you were a nutcase).

The act of carrying a pistol around?  If you had the license.....you might be able to convince the cops on a body-guard type situation but getting that license might be more difficult, and frankly.....the question comes up...if you aren't walking in some no-go area at 11 PM...why would you need to special license or the pistol?

Someone (An American) once asked me on the comparison of Frankfurt to any metro US city (like Chicago or Baltimore)....to which I just started laughing. I agreed....if you wanted cocaine or LSD....you could find it in Frankfurt in three minutes flat....but the threat angle like you'd see in Chicago or Baltimore to Frankfurt was marginal.  Maybe I could compare Frankfurt to Nashville in some way, but you just don't have gang activity or wild shooting events to occur.   

So the lesser threat stuff....leading back to better policing?  I don't tend to buy into that discussion much.  Police patrols are made of two cops...given an ample amount of training and practice-shooting.  They will go from real-nice to ample-use of force in a matter of seconds...if necessary.  Prosecutors?  They tend to do their job.

If things were wild and reckless, with sixty folks shot nightly across Germany and public safety were questionable.....then you'd see folks openly discussing a license and the carrying of arms.  But you simply don't have that going on.  I won't say it's like some rural small town in Iowa....but it's hard to imagine any German city getting as bad as Portland or Atlanta.  

How Many German States (16) Use The Term 'Freistat' In The Title?

 The term 'Freistat' basically is a historical term and would translate to something like the 'free state of'.

Saxony, Thuringia, Hamburg, Bremen, and Bavaria use the term.  The other eleven don't use it in identifying themselves.  

The use of this?  I'd say it's pretty rare that new journalists will use it.  Maybe during ceremonies with political big-wigs would be the only time you hear the phrase used.

Why Don't Germans Use Voting 'Machines'?

 Well....back around 15 years ago...some folks came to give a demo and sell the Germans on the idea of machine ballots/counting.

In the end....the Chaos Computer Club stepped in and said 'fine, why don't you allow us to break into them?'.  German government agreed....the club easily broke in and showed the problems of this technology.

While there was some 'push' going on...court challenges occurred, and on 3 March 2009....the Federal Ordinance on Voting Machines (Wahlgeräteverordnung) was declared unconstitutional by the Constitutional Court. 

So paper ballots went back into force.

Generally, what you find is voting districts are created to handle around 2,500 residents.  It'll be in a local school or kindergarten or public building....always on a Sunday.

If you add it up....nationwide....it's about 90,000 polling stations across the country.

Pretty much limited to vote?  Oh yeah.  A letter will be mailed to your address.  Since the law says when you move...you MUST register with the local city-hall within four weeks...that's the official address where the announcement letter will  go....telling you the date, time and what to bring (this letter, your national ID card) and the time of the doors being open.

Trying to bluff your way to vote in a wrong polling station?  I'd say it's close to a 99-percent chance that you will fail.  Trying to vote without the ID card?  You will fail.  

I'm not saying it's perfect.  This past election in Berlin-City was fairly screwed up and there's still talk of a secondary election to make up for the crap in that election.  

Political Chatter

 A German Green Party conference wrapped up this week (Friday) in Karlsruhe.  

So there was this odd statement made by the youth element 'boss' of the Green Party (Svenja Appuhn).  

The youth element is heavily in disagreement with the main party itself....on the issue of changing/resolving the migration crisis and the policy that the SPD is developing.  She even used the terms 'border camps' and 'prison-like conditions'.  

Where this is leading? 

Well...I'd say that in the group of 15-to-25 year old Greens....they are reading an entirely different script than the 'adult' Greens, and over the next decade....this could lead to enough friction....to divide up the party.

Odd development?

No....you could see this developing back in 2021 when the Green Party was in talks for the coalition situation, and they had to accept a number of things which weren't in line with the Green ideology.  

Some alternate party coming?  You know...German history for past hundred years has been a continual build and dissolve drama when it comes to political parties.

Just Three Odd Things I Notice

 1.  The FDP Party (leans right-of-center) is a partner of the SPD-Green coalition...leading the government at present. 

The FDP bosses have mailed out a survey poll to members....asking about their feeling of 'continuing'.  Quiet move, and one has to wonder....if a vast number (say 60-percent) say that the partnership should end....would they walk out and trigger a collapse of the coalition?

Hard to find any news publication that has a 'feel' for the survey.  

2.  At least one state in the Bundesrat is talking over a halt to VAT (the sales tax) going back to 19-percent for restaurants/cafes in January.  

Lot of restaurants are saying that the tax (was 19-percent prior to Covid era) will destroy their business model and trigger massive bankruptcy situation.

If the tax is halted?  Well.....puts more pressure on the government to find a way to recover lost 'income'/revenue.

3.  The mayor of Schomberg (town in Baden-Wurttemberg area, 8.5k residents) has gotten into trouble over behavior/words at a meeting in the past week or two.

Guests at the meeting say he was strongly affected by alcohol.

Mayor?  He says that someone put knock-out drops in his drink.  

Pretty odd situation, even for Germans.  

Movie Review: Morin (German Public TV)

 Couple of nights ago....I sat watching German public TV....the movie 'Morin'.

So for about 20 minutes, I tried to watch it. 

Best description?  Life in Germany in 20 years.  It was mostly developed around science-fiction and some kid's school/academy.....where they were being geared toward some future of reality.

It was an effort to produce some science fiction piece, without space stuff, aliens, or the Star Trek theme.

About ten minutes into it....I asked the wife (German in nature)....isn't this basically a 'ultra-soft' soap-opera theme?  Yeah....was the response.

I gave it ten more minutes and then told the wife this was crap.  She agreed.  We flipped it to a ultra-reality show.  

I probably could write a 700-line criticism over German productions of science fiction, and how they missed the boat on the bulk of productions.  

Seven German News Stories

 1.  Locally (in my town of Wiesbaden)....if you walk around over the past couple of years....you tend to notice a fair amount of beggars.  In an average 4-hour walk along the shopping district (downtown) and at the train station....you'd probably get approached three times minimum.   Some locals will say the approach business in the past year has become more 'aggressive'.

So this week, the city government announced that as the Christmas-market starts up....more police patrols will start and action will  be taken against the beggars.  They aren't that clear about the action to be taken, but it would seem that city council is hyped-up in some way to lessen the interaction.  I would imagine that the guy will get a five-minute lecture and some business-card to go and visit some social office in town. 

I'll just say that the profile fits into three types....druggies (particularly around the train station), drunks (they usually just want enough to another bottle), or migrant-guys.  

2.  This week, the Bundestag was set to 'give' cities an enormous amount of control over traffic (bringing 30 kph speed as the norm in cities, more bus lanes throughout cities, and more openness about 'zebra-stripes' for folks to cross with priority over traffic.  

Well....all it had to do was pass the Bundesrat (their form of the senate).....where the sixteen states have a say.   They voted it down ('NO')....which shocked the hell out of cities who were expecting this new 'power'.

3.  Not really front-page news, but Ukrainian President Zelansky fired a couple of the Ukrainian national guard generals. 

4.  Over next five days across about half of Germany.....fair amount of snow to fall. Up to this point....no reals snow fall for the winter.

5.  German health insurance authorities are saying that sick-days off....are reaching epic levels  where the typical German is using an average of 20 days or more now.

6.  WELT piece: survey of school principals shows that German school 'bosses' are 'burdened' by the idea that they are have to resolve/fix social problems. 

7.  German Post (the mail guys) are reviewing a new draft law....which would allow longer delivery times for letters within Germany.  Basically, it'd give them three work-days from the moment the letter is picked up....to deliver.

What Really Happened To The Migration/Immigration 'Hype' In Germany?

 Essentially, it went from 2014 where the bulk of the public opinion was pro-asylum/pro-migration (probably two-thirds of society felt this way)....to today where you essentially have still around one-third being enthusiastic....around a quarter being seriously anti-migration, and the remainder asking very difficult questions that the federal government can't handle.  

The four twists?

1.  Koln, 31 December 2015.  New Year's celebration activity went out of control with a serious number of North African gentlemen going into 'bad-boy' activity (fondling German women, firing off fireworks at people, and robbing people of cellphones on the streets).  One-thousand police reports were turned in over a 24-hour period.  

Entire attitude of the city.....from women's prospective, went from pro-asylum to anti-asylum in a matter of four short weeks.  Across the country over the next year....this was a key event.

2.  Federal element forcing down acceptance to smaller towns/villages....where the housing resources and funding wasn't existing to the level required?

Yeah, and from the small-town German....they tend to ask stupid questions that the political guy can't answer.  

3.  The deportation of failed applicants?  

People showed up and figured nothing would stop their asylum request.  Well....after you filled out the form and noted your country status, with your job capability....you were evaluated.  

If you didn't speak the language....came from a non-war country, and had no job experience....you were a economic refugee, and your potential for an approved form dropped like a rock.

So then came frustrated folks....giving a failed application response, and they refused to go home.

At various times in the past year....the government would admit that nationally....the number is near 250,000 in waiting to deport....with some states active, and some states doing next to nothing.  The fed folks?  They seem to have no solution or responsibility, and that is creating political tension with the public now.

4.  Finally, about every three or four months, you have some assault...involving a couple of innocent Germans and one migrant (typically with a knife).  Cops respond, and the question comes up....why is the guy 'nuts'? 

Cops typically respond.....the guy has a 'record', noted for previous  arrests, is on a bad-boy list to be deported, and has serious drug issues.  The public turns to the police and asks.....why is he still here?  The police point toward the 'system' and blame political bickering.  

In a comical sort of way....this refusal to resolve or get ahead of the problem....is dragging two or three percent of the public each year to a harsh view of reality, and accepting a far-right view of fixing the problem.  

If you were looking at the fall of 2029 (another federal election after the fall of 2025)....the AfD Party might actually be able to get a 35-percent win by that point....just based on crappy achievements on the migration issue.  

The other side of this coin?  Well....they need a manpower solution, and getting some type of 'new-German' migration into the country isn't a stupid idea, but if you were getting a hundred-thousand folks a year with no real schooling or job-training.....you aren't achieving much for the craftsmanship shortages and industry requirements. 

Political Chatter

 Lot of hype today in Germany over the Netherlands 'win' yesterday.  For at least two weeks prior to the election....public TV in Germany had kept reaffirming that the left-of-center guys would 'win'.  In some circles....it's a light shock that predicted folks didn't win.

In Dutch politics....things are divided enough....that you have a wide array of parties.  So a 'win' typically means you only got around 25-percent of the vote.  This also leads to a wild time in building a coalition and you end up giving up half your promises made to the public....to make the 2nd and 3rd partners happy.

So, what I noticed today...off WELT, is that Klaus Geiger wrote a piece and centered commentary on German politics now....that they need to worry that right-wing politics is now a part of the European spectrum, and that the fall 2025 election might go to the far right (hint: AfD Party).

What Geiger pointed out...in the Netherlands....there were two key points that brought elements of the public out for this particular party.  Then Geiger points at the German situation, and the AfD....saying they have yet to figure two topics out (they are for the most part....a one topic political party....countering migration/immigration only).

On this, I tend to agree.  If you sat down with any AfD enthusiast....they'd want to talk strictly over migrants/immigration.  If they'd figure out a gimmick for tax relief, poverty in Germany, improving schools, lessening crime?  Well....we'd have a totally different election.  

The fact that Argentina and Netherland went this way?  Yeah, it's a bit of a shock in one single week.

Looking At The Thuringia State Election (Sep 2024)

 It is a far distance away, but this is one of three German state elections in 2024, and it might matter.....on who wins.

Polling for this eastern German state?

Early November 2023, polling indicated that the AfD Party (right-wing) has around 34-percent of public appeal.

2nd place?  CDU Party....right of center, with 22-percent. 

Linke Party in 3rd place with 20-percent.

The fact that the BSW Party (the new party) wasn't included in this poll?  Yeah, that's a problem.  Some people believe that the BSW folks  in this state election would take one-third of the votes away of the Linke, AfD, and CDU parties...meaning it'd be a four-way race with the four ranging from 15-percent to 22-percent (each).

If BSW won the election (even with a marginal 22-percent)?  Well...the question would be....who would form up under them....for a coalition government?  I have my doubts that the SPD, CDU or Greens would do this.  

A complicated mess to form up a coalition state government?  Yeah. It'd be a bad sign for the fall 2025 national election.  

Selling Public Transportation in Germany

 If you live in a urban zone (Hamburg, Munich, Dusseldorf, Frankfurt, etc)....it's pretty easy to carry out a sales-job on people that public transportation 'works'.

You can cite less traffic woes and avoiding traffic jams/accidents.  You can cite how the design of the network going back to the 1960s...has made practical sense.  You can cite the computerized updates (minute-by-minute).  You can cite the smart use of 'park-and-ride' where you parked in some small village and caught the train....with a reasonable monthly fee for parking.  You can cite the 49-Euro monthly ticket (presently).  You can cite the safety-record.  

The negative side of this?  It comes down to three serious issues:

1.  If you live in x-village and don't work in a major zone....it's a marginal service.  I would take a humble guess that 50-percent of the working class are in this situation. 

2.  The trains/subways are full.  If you venture into Frankfurt at 7 AM....most all of the cars are full for at least two hours.  Same for each afternoon.  

3.  Most people who've spent time around the Frankfurt or Hamburg, or Dusseldorf train-station....will readily say that seedy characters (drug-dealers) are the norm these days, and it's best to limit your time within the confines of the station (don't loiter).

But I'll this unique factor....you can take any public mass transit service in the US and attempt to compare to the German network, and it simply doesn't compare.  

The Germans make an attempt to clean the cars each evening.

The Germans mandate a high degree of maintenance and checking things daily.

You don't find 1970s/1980s type cars still in service....with most of what you'd see in Frankfurt being delivered in the past 20 years.  

The big stations (particularly Mainz and Frankfurt) have various cafes, bakeries, and stores within the station itself.  On the run, but needing something....they offer just about everything you'd desire (even American-style donuts now).

The toilets?  Well....the free crappy toilets are long gone.  What you find are fairly sanitized toilets with a fee-system to enter.  

Finally, on the key act of leaving on time and getting there on time?  I'd go and suggest that in 80-percent of your travels....the schedule usually works unless bad weather fits into the situation. 

Court Action This AM

 Well....interesting twist. 

All those raids in the past couple of months....against the Last Generation activists....were challenged.

So the Munich Regional Court got the problem.  They reviewed it and then said this AM....the climate activists are a criminal organization. 

End of the story?  I doubt it....it'll be dragged up a notch to the Constitutional Court.  

Problems?  Well....if you were a foundation supporting the Last Generation efforts....it's fairly good odds that your foundation is on some bad-boy list now, and will end up getting a raid in the future.  

I would imagine this is the beginning of the end for the activists, and 2024 might be the final curtain call..

Four German News Stories

1.  This colossal liquid natural gas (LNG) terminal construction up in the Hamburg region.....in trouble?  Yeah.

A lot of the funding was connected to the Constitutional Court action from 2 weeks  ago, and there's a freeze of funding now.  Added to the problems....there is some significant opposition to the project now.  

Project was supposed to be resolving lack of natural gas because the Russian situation in Ukraine.

2.  Decent article on Focus by Ulrich Reitz (here).  Topic?  Growing lack of trust with the coalition government. 

No doubt, the SPD-FDP-Green coalition is at the weakest point since the election (fall 2021).  Just a lot of speculation that it will collapse.

There was supposed to be a budget crisis meeting next week.....that has been cancelled.

3.  Chatter of mandated mask-wearing?  What you have brewing is a wave of flu and Covid mixed in together.  So chatter has picked up in the last couple of days.  

I would assess things and agree....if you ride a bus or train, you can hear a fair amount of coughing.  Enough to mandate masks?  Well....I'd say near 50-percent of people are anti-mask.  On a typical day out.....I'll  probably see 5-percent of Germans wearing masks (shopping,  on the bus, etc).

4.  Supposed to be a massive trucker protest in Wiesbaden....over increasing tolls  in Germany...next couple of days.  Will tie up traffic to a great extent. 

Three German News Stories

1.   German versus Austria in soccer last night (national teams).  Austria won, 2:0.  

Yeah, I watched about one-third of the game.  I'd say that the German players who showed up...were either tired or just not pumped-up.  Makes two games now that the new coach has lost.

2.  That effort to raise the TV tax?  Well....it got bit stressed yesterday....the state of Bavaria has declared itself to be against it.  It just takes one state (of sixteen) to create problems.  More reform required?  Yeah.

3.  Sugar tax being discussed in effort to reduce amount of consumption.  How much would be the taxation rate?  Some are saying a flat 20-percent on each product, for an increase (taxation).  Personal opinion, vast majority of people would pay the 20-percent and continue on.  Even a 50-percent taxation rate....might trigger marginal numbers to change habits.

Just Something I Noticed

 I was today over in Maiinz....in a clothing shop.

So, it was an odd thing to watch, and I probably spent at least seven minutes watching this occur.

For those who haven't been around Turkish guys before....they tend to be 'Macho-types', authorities on things (at least they believe this), and rarely allow women to gain the upper-hand.  Some might say Italian guys are like that as well.

So there in the store was a Turkish couple....mid-20's....far as I could tell...not married.  The Turkish gal held all the 'aces', controlled authority, and was given 'Osman' direct instructions on how to dress, what colors were satisfactory, and the 'look' or style he needed.

I would guess that she lucked out, and somehow found that one rare Turkish guy who was willing to be submissive and take instructions.  

She eventually selected enough for the first trip under her guidance.  I sort admired the gal.  

'Osman' being now dressed appropriately to hang out with 'Yildiz'?  Oh yeah.  

Two Unfolding News Pieces

 1.  Just an odd story....the council chairwoman of the German Evangelical Church (EKD)....Annette Kurschus....resigned from her position yesterday.

The chatter?  Well....she got accused of covering up a case of sexual assault dating back to the 1990s. 

2.  On cannabis legalization?  All that chatter of it being wrapped up in 2023?  Zero chance.  Earliest date now discussed....March 2024.  

If the coalition were to collapse?  Well...this gets interesting because pro-cannabis around the CDU-CSU folks is zero.  So the whole agenda could in some weird way....might just disappear before legalization ever occurs.

Four German News Stories

 1.  Cash freeze for the German gov't?  Well....the German Finance Ministry sent out a note to all  levels of the gov't and basically said....if you signed contracts for cash to be spent...ok.  But from this moment on....you can't spend funding. 

Yeah, its the harsh reality of this Constitutional Court episode from last week.  I would imagine there's a lot of chatter going on, and crisis-talk is the topic of the day.

2.  Up in Wuppertal (NW Germany).....two teenage boys ran for a period....a prostitution ring with six girls (ages of 14 mostly).  Organization was named 'Gucci Gang'.  Cops are unraveling the whole  deal.....no forced participation.  Likely to be openly discussed.

3.  Storefront 'Real' used to be a major chain in Germany.  In the past two years....a lot of the operations were sold off (financial woes).  Yesterday, they announced whatever remains....will be closed by end of March 2024.

Used to be one of my favorite stores.  

4.  I was in Wiesbaden yesterday (mid-town and the train station).  Approached by four homeless people for hand-outs (all four were Germans).  Druggies?  Well....yeah, I got that impression.  

Three German News Stories

1.  Focus piece this AM....talking over how with the VAT rise in January (back to 19-percent)....that these senior citizen 'cheapo' plates at lunch....will be beyond the financial capability of some Germans.

Other coverage indicates that the university and school lunch program are also affected by the rise.

2.  Berlin city officials now say that there's 200k Euro of damage to property from environmentalists.

3.  Starting in January, there will be a 'Alpine' symbol on German winter tires.....to note they are such tires.  If you buy a set for winter purposes in 2024, and there is no Alpine symbol....then it doesn't qualify.   

Five German News Stories

 1.  WELT piece this AM....German authorities believe that around 190,000 Ukrainian men in draft age....are quietly/secretly in Germany.  Without a visa or support?  Yeah.  

Just a humble feeling, but I doubt if anyone is going to say or do anything about this.  The odds that they end up staying permanently?  Well....there's no evidence for, or against that idea.

2.  Germany played Turkey last night in soccer.....national team event.  Germany lost....3-to-2 to Turkey. Yeah, it has dampen spirits a bit over the new coach.

3.  WELT piece: German government says around 40,000 juvenile migrants are in the country and managed by the authorities (meaning they are in some structured home and supervised).  

4.  Taliban guy arrived in Koln and delivered a speech to local 'guests'.  This AM....Germans trying to figure out how he got into the country.  Occurred Thursday of last week.

No visa?  Well...German authorities say none were issued, and the general perception is that the guy flew into the Netherlands....getting a visa from the Dutch government....for some type of medical conference, and simply drove across the border to do his speech in Koln.

Causing further questions? I'm guessing the Interior Ministry is asking more questions and under some pressure to prevent future episodes like this.

5.  Fulda Goodyear plant (1,000 employees) will close in 2025....been around for over 100 years.  

Erdogan Visit In Germany

 What Turkish President Erdogan said in Berlin yesterday? 

“It doesn’t matter if Germany gives us fighter jets or not. There are many countries that produce them, where we can get supplied. Turkey is a leading country in unmanned fighter jet sector. Don’t threaten us as a journalist.”

Basically, he's bluffing that he can get new fighters via Russia (in the midst of war, they have not shown any production capability).  

China?  He'd have pay some amount of money and they won't be discounted.

On the bluff scale index (1-to-10)....I'd give Erdogan a '8'.

Big Business Plans

 News broke out yesterday....a major plant will be built in Alzey, Germany....without any gov't funding.  Location?  It's about halfway between Kaiserslautern and Mainz, in the Pfalz.

Deal?  By 2027....the US company Eli Lilley....will be producing the weight loss drug (currently on fire) there, with around 1,000 local employees.  

Boom period for Alzey?  Yeah, it's currently a town of 18,000.  I would imagine by 2030....with the plant in full operation....at least three additional housing areas will be underway, and another ,3,000 in population for the city.  

All of this....based on people who are overweight, and taking the injections?  Yeah.  

Five German News Stories

 1.  Focus went out and priced what will happen in 2024, as the VAT (sales tax) goes back to normal for restaurants/cafes (7-percent to 19-percent).

- Schnitzel plate (fried potatoes included).  Today? 16.90 Euro.  January?  18.80 Euro.

- Pizza.  Today?  11.50 Euro.  January?  12.80

Do I personally think people will lessen eating out?  For those on a controlled budget....yeah...they will cut back.  

The reality?  The small shop with just two employees and marginally getting by right now?  They will wrap up things by mid-summer 2024 because of a loss in sales.  The bigger operation will survive on.

2.  German TV-media tax is set to go up in 2025.  Amount?  58-Euro cents.....so it'll be a monthly deduction of 18.94 Euro.  Germans will grumble about the cost.  

3.  In 2 weeks...final episode of 'Wetten Das' will air on public TV.  It's been 'on' since 1981, and the best way to describe it....it's like a Ed Sullivan Show, with a twist or two.

You had six to eight of these per year (it wasn't cheap to produce).  

The gimmick of the show?  Promi-folks involved in 'bets'.  The most interesting thing....they brought on a border-collie who apparently knew the names of 1,000 of his 'toys'.  Yeah...the dog performed well, and found the ten toys challenged.  

The long drawn-out nature of the show?  The moderator was typically supposed to wrap up things by 10:30 PM (it was done live).  From the forty-odd shows I've viewed....almost all went to 11 PM, and at least ten of them stretched onto 11:30 PM.  

4.  Another Constitutional Court challenge to the Stoltz coalition?  Well....yeah.  They made up a second budget for the economic crisis period of 2023....revolving around natural gas prices.  Apparently, there are some suggestions of a challenge over that recent budget, and it'd really screw up things, if the court comes in late 2024 to say it was a unconstitutional budget.

5.  Not really a shock....the chief Linke Party (far-left) candidate for the EU election in the spring....has suggested that a renaming of the party is necessary.  Public enthusiasm nationally?  If you held an election today....the party would get in the 3-to-4 percent range.  In the five eastern German states?  There's probably three states where they'd get 10-percent of public voting still. 

Chips Encounter

I ended up at a German grocery yesterday. 

I found this new product....'Happy Chips'. 

So, Germans tend to develop healthy products.....this is a chip made out of peas, with a sour cream taste.

I looked over the product, and then walked away.  Just something about peas....that turns me off.

 

Star of David Case

 I've followed this Gil Ofarim episode/court case since day one.

A basic description?  Gil Ofarim is a top 40 pop-singer in Germany, and is Jewish (if it matters).  Back in October of 2021....he went to Leipzig.  He was driven up to a luxury hotel in town, where he had reservations.  I should note....this is the Covid-era, and people are a bit stressed out and acting different.  On VIP status....there's no doubt that he was on the 'special-treatment' list. 

Ofarim enters the hotel and gets into line (I've watched the video, and would say at least a dozen people are ahead of him).  Ofarim is a VIP and normally in these lux-hotels....you get immediate service.  So he's waiting (on this, it's hard to guess the amount of waiting time).

When he finally gets up to the desk....one of two things happen: (1) Ofarim is warned during checking in about his Star of David being obvious and that Leipzig is not a place to walk around with this shown, or (2) they simply check an aggravated Ofarim in without any notice of the Star of David.  It's one or the other.

The moment Ofarim concludes checking in....he goes out and does a social media message....slamming the hotel about the warning.  The hotel says 'no'....they never said a word about the Star of David...they merely checked him in.

The court case is mostly accusing Ofarim of lying, and potentially causing bad PR...with a fine and possible jail-time.

I've reviewed this stupid video, and watched the text chatter of the court case over this week.  

Personal view?  I have no doubt that Ofarim believes something occurred on the Star of David....but the description he gives....might not be the whole story.  The clerk may have noticed the Star of David....just staring at it, and Ofarim may have conjured-up in his mind....this whole fake warning episode.

Ofarim's lawyer?  Doing the best he can, but I think the judge sees this case as a waste of his time, and certainly doesn't want another extra day on it.  

Ofarim losing the case?  Well....it certainly makes him look bad.  

I'll just say this...from spring of 2020 to the end of 2022....people were in some Covid-mindset, and were often affected by lack of oxygen (from the stupid masks). 

My Trip To Grindavik, Iceland

 If you watch the news....Grindavik, Iceland has come up a good bit in the past two weeks, with volcanic activity going on.

Around six years ago....my wife (German in nature) agreed to a 7-day trip to Iceland.  For the first three days of the trip....we based ourselves out of Grindavak.

To describe the location?  If you look on a map...to the far SW corner....about a 25-minute drive from the Keflavik Airport.  

As you exit the airport, there's basically two roads....if you head east, you go into Reykjavik.  The other road leads south, toward the Blue Lagoon and Grindavik.  

Describing Grinavik?  It's a town of 3,700 residents.  If you go back forty years ago....before commerce picked up....I doubt if there were more than 500 people who lived in the isolated town.

On what drives the town today?  You fall into one of four work-categories...(1) you work at the airport. (2) You work for the Blue Lagoon complex.  (3) You work in the fisheries industry. (4) You work in some agricultural small operation (chickens, for example).  

Tourism?  Well....there was just one single hotel operating when I went, with 2 or 3 bar and grill operations, a cafe or two, and two authentic restaurants.  

You mostly went to this area to experience the Blue Lagoon, see the hot springs, and see 'quiet' Iceland.  

That funny smell?  Well....the smell off the hot springs was a on-going thing....you continually noticed the scent.  I guess locals adjust to it.  

It is curious to watch the updates.  

Three German News Stories

 1.  Erdogan of Turkey is set to visit Berlin.  What he says or comments upon on this visit....might be interesting.

2.  German Health Ministry has said it will agree to legalization of cannabis at the beginning of 2024.  Meaning?  Some session in mid-January will occur, and some debate occur.  Votes are already there (at least journalists suggest that).  Probably by April....legal sales of weed would start up (in theory).  

Shocker?  Yeah, if you'd asked me ten years ago....I would have said Germany would not go to this situation.  

Across society...everyone agreeable?  No.  I would say Germans over the age of sixty....it's probably near 75-percent against the idea.  

Even from the Health Minister himself (Lauterbach, SPD)....he's fairly negative about the idea.  Back in 2022, some study was done to suggest that 4-million Germans use cannabis already on an occasional basis (minimum).  

3.  The VAT rate (sales tax rate) for restaurants, cafes, and bars....was temporarily lowered from 19-percent to 7-percent, during Covid. 

Well...the temp deal is running out.  At some point in early 2024, unless the Bundestag does something....19-percent goes back into effect.

A big deal?  What's generally said by the owners of restaurants....it'll be a harsh thing to get through, and some think bankruptcies will bounce up for 2024.

I'll just say this....last weekend, I paid the restaurant bill for four people, and this was a regular local village Greek restaurant.....no steaks....no expensive wine, and it totaled out at 121 Euro (tip included, $131).  If you added the this up, with the 19-percent deal....it would have gone to 135 Euro ($147).  

My issue...inflation has hurt the society a good bit.  But what the government says....they need to rebalance things because there's been a serious amount of spending for the past four years. 

Three German News Stories

 1.  The Constitutional Court issue is still being discussed today.  The SPD-coalition has been effectively slammed, with sixty-odd billion Euro taken away.  All of these 'gifts' that the SPD Party, Green Party and FDP Party were going to give the public....removed.  

How you could sum up the whole mess?  This government went into what was deemed a unlawful maneuver to create tax revenue reserves....just an inch or two outside of the normal budget process.....which was supposed to be a vehicle for their political promises in the fall of 2021 election.

All of this....created by Covid reactions?  More or less, this was supposed to be 60-billion for failing businesses and potential closures (an easy sell to the public). 

Could the government survive this?  Yeah, but the 'gift' business will be zero.  Several billion of this money was supposed to build all these charging stations for e-cars in Germany, for example.

2.  City of Landau has gotten aggressive about empty apartments.  If you are a landlord in the city, and have a property that has been empty for longer than six months....there's going to be fine assessed on you.  Number that we are talking about?  The city suggests 1,000 of these type of situation.  Population? 46,000.

Location?  It's in the Pfalz....about an hour SE of Kaiserslautern.  

Yeah, it's a pretty harsh situation, but designed to take on the folks who use property for B-and-B situations.  

3.  Apparently, several raids were conducted in Hessen, Bavaria, and Baden-Wurttemberg at massage studios....accused of bringing in Chinese women as 'hookers'.  Police involved?  Over 250.  

With The Chaos....Another Election?

 Well....it's a scenario being discussed this afternoon in Germany.

If you ranked things by the last poll (INSA, 10 Nov 2023)?

The CDU-CSU would win with 24-percent.

The Linke Party would fail to get 5-percent, meaning they get no seats.

The FDP Party is at 5-percent, marginally.

The Greens?  13-percent.

The SPD at 17-percent.

The AfD Party would be at 17-percent.

The new BSW Party at 14-percent.  

No doubt...the CDU-CSU folks would win, but who would you partner up with....to reach 50-percent?  It won't be the BSW or AfD parties.

I would predict more disgruntled feelings to occur, if an election is forced at this point.

That Court Ruling And Chaos

 Well....it is interesting what the Constitutional Court of Germany said today.  The 2nd budget worked up in 2021, and under the control of the SPD-led coalition....was designed for Covid 'losses'.  When Covid came to a close....the coalition then said the leftover money (amounting to 60 billion Euro)....was to be spent on two things....climate change stuff and the bucket of infrastructure (railway stuff, charging stations, semiconductor industry, etc).  

What the court said was....no, it was designed for Covid...so either you spend it on Covid or retrack it entirely back into the revenue bucket.  Then you could build a new budget from scratch. 

What happens now?  Some part of this money has been spent (minor amount is what the news folks say).  So it's not the end of the world.

All that stuff they promised?  Well....it won't happen.

The odds that this situation will collapse the government?  That chatter has been going on all afternoon.  Certain journalists feel that the Green Party is peeved at how this came in such a negative way.  

Top topics for the next ten days?  This court action and the 60 billion Euro left on the table.  

If the coalition fell apart?  I would imagine the SPD would try to talk the CDU-CSU into a partnership....where they'd say fine, but we want the Chancellor-chair, and I can't see the SPD agreeing to that.  In this scenario, another election would occur in roughly sixty days (roughly mid-January).  

In that scenario, I'd say with zero doubt that the CDU-CSU Party would get 30-percent minimum and 'win'.  Partner?  Well....then it gets messy, because they can't partner up with the AfD, and it's a 3-way partnership....meaning an awful weak gov't.  

Two Curious Updates

 1.  The German Constitutional Court came out on the Covid fund bucket issue....where money was left over in 2021 (wasn't spent on Covid), and the SPD coalition decided to spend it on climate change.

Well...the court said no....you can't take money like this and spend it on something else.

Amount under discussion?  60-billion Euro (big chunk of money).

2.  Yesterday in Gummersbach....a guy went nuts on the street, waving a knife around.  Cops were on the scene, and gave the guy a warning (actual video of the scene).  

The warning apparently didn't work, and the police fired a round or two....wounding him and putting him on the ground.

Nationality?  German-Moroccan.  Just by words spoken by the police....they knew the guy (he had some kind of record).

How'd he get into trouble?  Shop-lifting....cops were called to detain/hold him.

Other people hit by a round?  Well....yeah, there's some innocent shopper who got wounded in the leg apparently.

UPDATE: What the knife guy had attempted to steal?  Several beer cans.  Yeah, waving a knife around to get an escape, over a couple of beer cans.  His condition presently?  On a ventilator, and it doesn't look that good.

Six German News Stories

 1.  WELT had a piece on robbery and brutality of crimes this AM in their paper.  What the German federal police say?  A fair amount of the participants in these crimes....are juveniles (under age 18).

2.  There's some German Constitutional Court action going on about the Covid-money that the government created during the 2020-2022 era.  

Well....there's money still left, and the coalition gov't has said they want to use it for something other than Covid...in fact....for climate change.  Some folks felt that was illegal, and it's dragging up in court now.

3.  Siemens Energy has written a 'loss' down for their wind power business....up to around 4.6-billion Euro.

4.  New poll done....SPD rated at 14-percent nationally now.  For the EU election and the three state elections in the fall of 2024....this might be a harsh situation  for the left-of-center party.

5.  Some ARD (public TV, Channel 1) journalist who was a Russia-expert.....got noted for extra income from Russia (in the range of 600k Euro).  Illegal?  Well....only to the extent that he didn't report this to ARD.  Tax-wise, no one has said much yet (maybe he paid taxes on the income).  

6.  On this Ofarim court case?  Man, just not any witness in the hotel to agree to Ofarim's version of events.  Case continues on in court.

Three News Pieces You Notice Today

 1.  That Gil Ofarim court case in Erfurt?  Judge was pushing it along today (3rd day) and wanted it to conclude.....defense put up a fight.

Key thing which journalists point out....so far, no witness has given words to support Ofarim's position at the hotel.

2.  Train strike?  Wed night to Thursday night.

3.  Insurance folks are talking up the idea that if you go to install a heat-pump.....there's some chance of people unhooking it and walking away.  So there's pressure to increase your home insurance to cover stolen heat-pumps.  

Odd Day For Linke Party

 For those who are unfamiliar with German politics....the Linke Party is what evolved out of the Communist Party.

Today, with various members who've left to join the newly formed Wagenknecht Party....the Linke management folks said 'enough'.

On the 6th of December.....they will dissolve.

End totally?  Well....they still exist on the books, but in terms of special benefits within the Bundestag.....that will dissolve to some degree, and sponsorship cash from the Bundestag will decrease.  

They've been around as 'Linke' for about 20 years.  

What did the money add up to....for sponsorship?  Yearly....about 11-to-12 million Euro.  For the 100-odd employees supporting the functions?  Well....they will be given some type of termination and look for fresh new jobs.

What the typical German will say?  Less TV coverage obviously.  Some might say from the fall 2021 election....the Linke Party was on thin ice.  

Green Party Spiral?

 There was a piece written by Gabor Steingart for Focus magazine today, and it laid out the five chief problems in selling the Green Party 'brand' in today's political atmosphere.

First, the Green Party has never been a supporter of wars or providing arms to countries in war....so this Ukraine-Russia situation, has attached itself to their national agenda, and it doesn't fit.  

Since the first month of the war, I tend to agree on this matter.  The Greens were forced to pick a position which isn't really a pure Green agenda.

Second, the Greens have never really been a pro-commerce or pro-industry political group....yet here they are in a very demanding situation after Covid, and forced into positions which aren't easily fitting the path ahead.

You see monthly....little demonstrations where one side of the Green Party has issues, and the other side of the party has to defend the position taken.

Third, the energy policy....because of the natural gas crisis....isn't really a great position for the Greens to defend.  

Fourth, the migration crisis (since 2013) is continually in evolution....with the general position by most members of the Green Party being pro-asylum, while the general public in German are going to a counter-position.  

Fifth, and final....Steingart cites the former position of the Green Party....that it was there to inspire people.  Presently, there might be some inspiration, but there's also indoctrination existing as well.

What'll happen in 2025 for the next election?  Presently, I don't think the vote situation will repeat itself, and there might be 30-to-40 percent less Green votes in this approaching election.   They aren't going away.....but they will have to evolve into something else for the future.  

Five German News Stories

 1.  It was a page 3 type story....'Greta' showing up in Amsterdam for a 'Fridays-For-The-Future' rally.  She got into some hype over the Palestinian-Israel conflict (pro-Palestine position), and one of the folks (guy in his 20s) tried to take the microphone away.  

Anti-Semitic position?  Yeah.

I'll predict as the weeks pass, and some of these juveniles get visits at home by the police over hate-speech and anti-Semitic chatter...the FFTF movement will come to new reality.  

2.  Steel union in Germany (IG Metall) is demanding 32-hour work-week as part of their negotiation. 

3.  Second and last NFL game in Frankfurt occurred yesterday.  Lot of hype over the two games.

4.  Just east of Hanau, in some residential neighborhood....another E-car caught on fire.  Barely six weeks old...totalled-out.  Took about four hours for the fire department to say the blaze was wrapped-up.  That's the one obvious you notice from the E-car fires.....it consumes a fair amount of time for the fire guys to say 'finished'.  

5.  Frankfurt city council agreed on location for the 'new' opera house....as the old building torn down....structure will be on the same spot (likely to be a five-year project).  Cost factor?  Most everyone anticipates this structure will run to the 1-billion Euro range.  Street region?  Willy Brandt Platz.....about a 20 minute walk from the train station.  

Three Odd Things You Notice

 1.  Over in Bavaria (Schrobenhausen), there were two dorm-like facilities used for migrants/asylum seekers (for about 7 years now)

Some negative events occurred at the end of 2022, and the mayor finally came up in the last week....noting the last of the migrants were moved out, and he wants to have a dismantle/tear-down phase of the building....to prevent future use.

I won't say this is a common reaction, but when you have one stupid event to occur....it turns into a public reaction.  

2.  German police are pretty sure on who did the Nord Stream II pipeline blow-up.  It leads to a Ukrainian military guy.  The question is....can they ever arrest or detain the guy, and was he acting on state-orders.  

All that massive amount of BS in DC....suggesting it was the US?  Yeah, it just begs questions how that started up.

3.  I finished up Babylon Berlin season 4 last night.  If you haven't ever watched an episode of the German series....I strongly recommend a viewing.  Just on clothing styles, car  models, and lifestyles in the 1920s/1930s....it's great viewing.  Script-wise, they took you through twenty odd 'curves' for season four, and in the end....it lays out a weird idea for season five.  

Early Federal Election?

 Right now, the next national election in Germany is for the fall of 2025....unless 'something' happens.

ARD (public TV) went and did a poll.....finding that 41-percent of German society want an election before the fall of 2025.  Only 32-percent want the current coalition of the SPD, Greens and FDP to continue on.

Another odd feature of this poll....they asked about the actions of the government over the past month for anti-Semitism, and 56-percent want MORE action done by the coalition.

How political ranking looks with this poll?  The CDU-CSU lead with 30-percent of the public.....AfD follows with 21-percent.  The Greens and SPD are in 3rd place with 15-percent each.  FDP marginally stays 'active' with 5-percent.  The Linke Party would crap-out with 3-percent (meaning no seats in the next Bundestag).

How 2024 looks presently?  You have the EU election in the spring, and three eastern state elections in the fall of 2024....likely showing hefty numbers for the AfD Party, and putting a harsh situation for the 2025 situation.

Could they do an early election?  Yes, with the FDP saying enough, and quitting this situation....that would potentially create a way to call for the early election.  That would also halt the positive numbers for the AfD in the fall of 2024 state elections.

Odds of this?  Presently, I'd give it less than a 30-percent chance of occurring.

In this scenario, if you were to ask....the CDU-CSU folks would likely partner with the SPD, with Scholz quietly exiting the situation.  

Curing all ills?  Well.....no, you still have a problem with migrants and the asylum policy, and the effects of AfD wins in the state elections of the fall of 2024 still remain.  

German Bahn Preparing For Christmas Strikes?

 Well....yeah, the union has strongly suggested in the week or two prior to Christmas....strike action is possible.

Reacting?  Curiously, the management folks have said they will increase the size of the ICE trains (the long distance type)....from what is typically 450-passenger/200 meter long trains.....to 900-passenger/376 meter long trains (example of the Hamburg to Munich train).

The problem here....the more that strikes are committed on railway lines....selling the general public on dumping in-country flights goes deeper into a 'hole'.  

For the public that has enthusiasm for railway 'adventures'....the strikes present a patience problem, where you have to crank up a plan 'B' out of thin air.

Trying to imagine a 376 meter long train?  1,233 ft long.  

Six German News Stories

 1.  I ended up eating out last night (with wife,  son and his GF).....Greek local restaurant.  Bill with tip....121 Euro ($130).  No, there was no Champaign or alcohol.  No steaks.  Just a traditional meal that would have cost around 100 Euro back in 2020....inflation affecting things today.  

2.  WELT piece: German police released data to show that Germans are more likely to be affected by crime against them....by non-Germans.....than non-Germans being affected by crime by Germans.  

Probably won't comfort Germans much.  But if you'd asked about this five years ago....most people would have already said this trend was underway.  I would imagine if you compared highly urbanized areas....it's probably ten times the rate compared to rural communities.  

3.  WELT piece....study by US foundation that LNG-shipped natural gas....is more harmful to the environment....than coal.

Yeah, that will flip out the German environmental folks.  

4.  WELT piece....poll done.  59 percent of Germans expect a terror act on German soil to come out of the Hamas-Israel war.

5.  Some advancement by Germans on Nord Stream II 'act'.  What they tend to lead onto....some Ukrainian special forces officer, with a team.....blew up the pipe.  Whether they were on orders or not....unknown.  Arresting the guy?  Doesn't seem likely at this point.  I would imagine the entire investigation will dwindle down now.   

6.  Coalition gov't is discussing having a 'holiday' for German military members (a sort of veterans day).  Date discussed?  12 November....birthday of the Bundeswehr.  Likely chance it'll pass?  I'd give it near 99-percent.  

This German UFO Story From 1561

 Around forty years ago, I had originally read and pondered over the UFO story in Nuremberg of 1561.

So what you have is a fairly colorful sheet made by a letter-painter....Hans Wolff Glaser.  There's a graphic view of an 'attack' over Nuremberg....supposedly in the morning hours of 14 April 1561, with around 14 lines of text.  

Yes, aerial-type vehicles....lightning bolts....etc.

There are various beliefs today.....that Glaser was not present when this 'attack' occurred, and simply used commentary by locals for the text.

The chief problem with the leaflet?  It's one of a kind....there are no other mentions by anyone in Nuremberg.  

Hoax?  I have some suspicion that Glaser had produced a number of the leaflets and sold them far and wide over the region.   Yeah, it's kinda like that Bigfoot video made for TV....which people cite a good bit for suggesting an actual  'real' Bigfoot.

Three German News Stories

 1.  Explaining the new coalition for the state of Hessen?  About a month ago, the state election occurred, with the CDU winning (35-percent).   They have to partner with some other party.....to reach 50-percent-plus.  So you throw out the AfD Party (18-percent).  You have two choices left....either the SPD or Green Party. 

So you walk into negotiations and talk over issues.  You offer various posts and try to reach some neutral ground for the next five years.  SPD came out as the best partner from the talks. 

2.  The Interior Ministry of Germany has said to speed up asylum approvals....they want to reduce security reviews.  Selling this to the public?  It might be difficult.

3.  Some political talk going on.....to revise the laws on intrusions on runways.  There's likely to be serious jail-time (not months, but years) that you'd get.  Directly focused at 'Last Generation' activists.  It appears that all three parties in the coalition are somewhat agreeable on this idea.

What Does A German Mean When Uttering 'Sh*tstorm'?

What the German says for 'sh*tstorm'?  Scheißsturm.

Back a decade ago....the Duden (the rule book for German language) finally added Scheißsturm.  

Now, if you asked a hundred Germans, I would imagine that half of them would say they've never uttered the term, and near fifty-percent would still say it's a vulgar word, which they'd prefer not to use.

 When used?  I would describe it as used in a serious and chaotic event....which has a ton of controversy involved.  

More used by teens and young adults?  Yeah.  

Use on news shows or public forums?  No....the more educated German....won't utter it.  

But I would suggest that when uttered....it's an event that you probably have a pretty negative view of.  

Nazi Place Names Businesss

 This week, it's been 78 years since WW II ended, and the local city government came out with a list of fifty-odd street and place names....that are connected to the 1930s and the Nazi Party.  So....the mayor and city council say....the names have to go away.

In my village?  We had one street and one building....connected to one single guy from that era.

In the city of Wiesbaden....the biggest note?  Opelbad, the 5-star public pool on the hill overlooking the city.  It was a big part of local Nazi creation in the late 1930s.

What new names will come up?  Unknown.....but I would assume this would be a long process, and probably consume at least two years of discussions. 

The pool?  If you identified five of the biggest functions in the city.....this is one, and I would imagine at least 300 nominations for the new name.  

Having taken a long time? Yeah, you could probably drag up this topic....that this should have occurred in the 1970s/1980s.  

Hessen (the State) Determines New Coalition

 Oddly, after ten years of CDU-Green coalitions.....this AM, Hessen state gov't met and went to a new situation for state coalition....CDU partnering with SPD.

Some shock.  

Might be an indicator of national level SPD folks collapsing their SPD-Green-FDP government, and going to a SPD-CDU-CSU government. 

That Hamburg Toy-Gun Episode

 Well....if you review what the police are saying over the four juvenile boys involved in the toy-gun threat at the two schools....no charges will be mounted, however, there is a new issue brewing.

The bill for the police action required?  It's said to be fairly near 50,000 Euro ($53,000).  Review going on....police have the power to hand the bill to the four sets of parents involved.  

I'm guessing the parents are fairly shaken already by the stress involved, but if you said they each owed a quarter of the 50k Euro.....that would be a mess.

Four German News Stories

 1.  Offenburg region: 15 year old kid shot dead a classmate.  Motive?  None given so far.  Cops have not figured out how the kid obtained the gun.

2.  The German national welfare 'fund' ('Burger Geld') has hit an odd point....whatever the planned budget was in the beginning of 2023....things have heated up, and the gov't requires around 2-billion extra Euro to fund the situation.  Blame?  Well...journalists suggest an economy that is still lagging.

3.  N-TV did a poll...asking Germans if the new party ('Alliance Sahra Wagenknecht') will make it politically.  Only 37-percent agreed that they'd be successful.  Roughly 70-percent said that the party does not have the competence to handle all of the significant problems going (I would imagine if asked....most would refer to the economy).

4.  More Bahn/railway strikes coming?  Lot of chatter.  Union pressing for a 4-day work-week....Bahn has said absolutely no on that idea.  Suggestion of strikes around Xmas.  

Odd Detail of the Gun Play Episode in Hamburg

 These four juveniles with the toy-gun routine....upset school kids so much, that some went into hysterics and crying....actually believing it was going to be slaughter business in the school.

According to journalists,  there's supposed to be school today (Thursday) but kids can come in late.  There's also supposed to crisis counselors and school psychologists on hand to talk things over with both teachers and students.   

The odds that a fair amount of kids are still disturbed and won't return to school until Monday?  I'd say it's a possibility.  

Allowing the four juveniles back into the schools?  I just doubt that the authorities will be agreeable to that.  

What Was This Gun Play Episode in Hamburg This AM?

 Well....what the cops say....two incidents occurred.  Four folks arrested/detained.

People with the gun-play?  Two 12-year-olds, a 13-year-old and a 14-year-old.  Yeah, juveniles.

What the police took from them?  Toy guns.

This started with a threat made in two schools (against teachers)....all hell broke loose after that.

A joke?  Well....it shut down both schools, and got the cops active, with real guns. 

What'll happen?  I'm guessing the four will not be allowed back into their schools for the remainder of the year, and authorities might request a mental eval of the four.

Stupid?  Five-star stupid.

Was Hitler Duly Elected?

 I sat and watched a 1-minute video of Hillary Clinton on the View, and this comment from Hillary popped up.

So, here's the historical side of this.

National election in Germany (1930)...meant you voted for a party, 37 were listed nationally.  

The Nazis (Hitler) took 18-percent of the vote.  

To form a coalition, the winner (the SPD folks) could NOT work a coalition with the Communist Party....so the Nazis were the partner to this coalition.  

So if you use the term duly elected....yeah, it is a true statement.  But you have to consider the implication....could the SPD folks ever partner up with the Communist Party (in that era)?  After the problems of Munich in 1919?  No....so the election system worked as designed....you took the least of problems into the coalition.  

Five German News Stories

 1.  Some story this AM out of Hamburg...two students threatened school teacher with a 'gun'.  SEK (fed) cops have shown up.  Two students have 'escaped'....no rounds fired apparently.  Cops looking for them.

2.  RBB TV network case in court....from terminations in summer of 2022.  Court said this AM that all of the 'firings' were legit.

3.  267,000 asylum applications so far in Germany for 2023.  

4.  EU says 2023 was the warmest year in 125,000 years.  From my personal standpoint....it was the mildest summer in the several decades that I've been around Germany....with only nine days where it got above 30 C at the house.

5.  Today (8th) is the 100th anniversary of the Hitler attempt to take power of Munich, in a failed attempt.  Had this succeeded?  Well...you could probably discuss a couple of weeks where the Brown-Shirts and Hitler would run Bavarian politics, and eventually some militia crew from Berlin would have arrived and deposed them.  It's questionable if Hitler would have survived this 'era'.  

This Anne Frank Kindergarten Story

 First, let me just lay this out there.....typically when you name a kindergarten in Germany....you name it after the city, the village, or the neighborhood.  You might pick out some historical figure from the region.  You typically don't name it after Chancellor Kohl or Merkel, or dead Kaisers, or 1950s political figures.

So we have this kindergarten in the eastern region (Tangerhütte, 10,500 population, about an hour west of Berlin)....still in the old DDR region....that had this kindergarten named after Anne Frank.

At some point in the beginning of 2023, there was some talk of 'change' coming (hinted of renovation) for the kindergarten, and the name-change idea came up.....to dump the 'Anne Frank' name on the kindergarten.

From regional chatter, one gets the impression that the 'head' of the kindergarten pursued this, with the idea that 'Anne Frank' could not be conveyed to 4 and 5 year old kids....so they wanted a fresh new name....that could be easily conveyed to little kids.

Some local media (no one ever cites who) says that migrant parents aren't happy with the Jewish girl name business.  I tend to view this story as 'BS'.  Kindergartens in the town?  Two.  The second one has a name related to a German education official....who passed on in 1852.  If you brought up the name in town.....to be honest, I doubt if more than ten (of the 10,500) know the legend of Fredrich Froebel.  So selling his story to migrant four and five year olds....is just as hard.

Where things stand at this point on the name change idea?  They got a lot of harsh criticism and have shut down change conversation presently.  I'd say the change deal will be put off for a minimum of a year.  It might never even be brought up again.

An Israel Work Development

 On daily work-permits....around 90,000 Palestinians held the permit to cross daily and be employed in Israel.  

So, in the last week....Israel announced a new deal....to bring in around 100,000 Indian workers...housing them in some fashion, and releasing the 90k working-Palestinians (meaning....unemployed).

Why?  They don't say much but it's obvious from 'plans' that the Israel military got off dead Palestinian attackers.....there was a lot of internal information that had been collected over the years.  'Trust'?  That probably went away permanently.

So, you sit and ponder over this.  That's 90,000 Palestinians who had a legit job/income and were kept busy.  Now?  They will turn and figure out the path taken....how screwed they are, and they will require some permanent hand-out from the Saudis or the Iranians to survive.

To bring in 100k Indians?  Well...even if you had a dozen flights a day....it'd probably take at least six to eight weeks.  

Just Two Things You Notice

 1.  I sat and watched part of last night's public forum show on ARD (public TV in Germany, Channel 1)....'Hart Aber Fair' (Hard But Fair).

So the topic?  Cost of accepting refugees.

At some point, a district manager commented on his local issue.  His local small town had originally accepted around 25 refugees (in the summer). End of October, they were up to 45, and the facility will be absolutely maxed-out at 60.

His emphasis on comments? 'Forget integration.  We can no longer afford it.'

In simple terms....you start add up housing, teachers, extra services....the fed money to cover ALL costs?  It won't be adequate.

He has a point, but national politics is probably still not reaching this reality.

2.  The 49-Euro Bahn/bus ticket going into 2024?  Lot of chatter....still no firm idea if it can remain at 49-Euro (would require massive federal input of cash).

My humble guess?  I think it'll go to 59-Euro, and likely escalate in 2025 to 69-Euro.  

Locally, before all the Covid-BS....if you wanted the local (only) train/bus ticket for a month....it was in the 100-Euro range.  

Four German News Stories

 1.  From that summit of German federal and state officials yesterday...on the topic of migration....it's an interesting twist for results.

First, this meeting went on for 17 hours....a heck of a long day for folks who arrived at the meeting around 9 AM.   

So....onto the key thing....benefits are now limited from federal/state folks....to 18 months.  

Payment on a 'cash-card' device?  Yeah, that's now part of the future for refugee benefits.  They aren't saying 100-percent, but it sounds like the majority of your limit will be on a card.

Flat-rate per refugee, per year?  Yes, that's also now to be built into the system.  You max out at 7,500 Euro.  The feds will cover this cost....to the state distribution system.

Border control to be maintained?  Yeah....at least with Switzerland, Poland, Czech, and Austria.

If you figure the total package....the federal gov't has to cover around 3.75-billion Euro in costs.

2.  Harry Kane, the noted Brit soccer star....a member of the Bayern Munich team for 3 months.....still looking for a house?  Yeah, and presently....the team is paying in the neighborhood of 11,000 Euro per day for the hotel apartment he has.

3.  If you sat at 8 PM to watch ARD (public TV) Tagesschau (nightly news)....about 5 minutes into it....the teleprompter  blacked out.  It is a unique show.....nightly news for 15 minutes, done live out of Hamburg.  You could tell...the guy's blood pressure went massively up.

4.  Interesting suggestion by the CDU Party on the antisemetic demonstrations going on.  Their idea?  If you violate any rules on hate-speech during these protests....detain the person, and take away their passport.  Basically, if you often went back to your homeland (beyond the EU)....without the passport, you can't go.  

Habeck, the vice-Chancellor, had earlier said that if you went into hate-speech territory....with dual-citizenship at play (a fair number of Turks are in this category)....Germany should go through the action of lessening the burden of allowing you a German passport (meaning, you would lose that German citizenship deal).

Shocking some folks, if some court laid out the threat?  Yeah, and likely to be challenged via the system.   

Even if you were a German-only citizen....they only have to provide the German national ID card (mandatory).  They could easily revoke your passport privilege, for the remainder of your life....meaning you never leave the EU. 

From The Weekend

 Over the weekend, there was a fair amount of anti-Israel chatter out of Essen, with some onscreen hype by people for a caliphate (Islamic rules upon Islamic people within a society).

Well...a police commission has gone to the videos of the action, and are said to be 'evaluating' commentary and speech given. 

Identifying people and having them in front of a judge?  Probably could occur but it would require a lot of physical action upon the police.  

The caliphate business?  I don't think anyone within the Bundestag will converse on the issue....it's a plain no-go, and if this was in some forum chatter....it'd just draw the public to harsh commentary.  

These Essen folks having to explain inciting the public around them?  Yeah, there could be actual charges drawn up and lawyers involved. 

New German Series?

 There's a new Disney-Plus TV series for Germany....to be aired in early 2024.  Title?  'Pauline'.

Script?  Well....this German girl (figure age 18) has a one-night stand with a guy she met.  Yes, she gets pregnant.

So, as time passes (not sure if it's in episode one or drawn out for several episodes)....it turns out that the guy is actually the Devil (in some human form).

Comedy design?  Well...it would appear on various reports of the series....that's the idea.

I paused over this.  I've probably seen at least 200 German comedy shows over the years....some were built with marginal material, and needed to be cancelled after season one.  Some actually had decent characters and they could have gone on to make fifty episodes (if they wanted).

This devil-turned-father idea?  I just don't see this working well, but Disney is probably desperate to get some German created material out there and this was the best they could find.