Up until this past week....the EU had been set to ban combustion engines....by 2035.
Well....Germany, Italy, Poland and the Czech Republic...fought hard, and it appears that the ban....will not occur.
The change? The EU will shift to emissions reduction targets. Meaning, engines built today can still be built and sold.
Job losses still in play? Well....yeah. A lot spent on e-car development, and the bulk of Germans aren't that eager to buy into it.
Yesterday....the wife and I went into Wiesbaden....to a new grocery on the SE part of town....with a underground parking situation.
Some sign with ultra-small fine-print.....then we entered the underground parking area. So we stepped out of the car, and read the sign (close-up).
Well...it basically says a camera read your plate upon entry....you need to pay 3 Euro to exit, or buy something at the grocery to get a scan-type coupon (making it free). If you drive out without either....you get a legal form in the mail for 45 Euro (fine) by this company monitoring things.
A hassle? If you were a older German....you might miss the sign and get this warning letter.
The odds of me ever going back? Near one-percent.
Second story? Well....the store had premium-coffee in a locked-up case.
I pondered this....all these years in Germany and never having seen a lock-up situation for premium coffee. If you needed some? You'd have to chat with the manager, and he'd get you a 'bag'.
Over the past several days in Germany....there have been repeated acts of sabotage against electrical substations across the country.
Well....this AM (Friday)....another attempt....in Lower Saxony.
So as of noon....cops have an idea of who is involved (NOT Putin or his thugs).....appears to be German citizen.....militant climate activist.
His big deal? Well....he wants to fight fossil fuels. Yes....fossil fuels.
Nutcase-level? I would suggest that some type of mental review will probably occur...he might avoid charges/jail...by establishing his mental control is 'lacking'.
Yeah....oddball case, and will get dragged around to be discussed a good bit.
This leading back to mental stability (lack of) in a group of environmentalists? It's hard to say a number but it's painfully obvious that people take climate control to a level of some Marvel-movie adventure.
This week....if you follow ARD/ZDF (public TV in Germany).....there's mostly hype over Russia saying Germany is near to "destroying" all political and economic relationships with Putin's Russia.
There was a unique political relationship between West Germany and the Soviet Union....coming out of the 1960s....mostly between the SPD leadership, and the necessity for 'cheap' natural gas/oil. This drove the economic relationship.
Adding to this....the bulk of economic-power that Germans often talk about....is related to the flow of natural gas and oil. The Soviets, and later....the Russians....built a great middle-class level. The Ukraine-war? It basically destroyed the business model....for both Russia (Putin) and Germany (for both the SPD and CDU).
Presently, if the war were to end....Germany and Russia would both likely be back to natural gas 'trading', and a economic recovery for both would occur. If we linger another two or three years, in some war without value? I'd suggest both would find economical recovery fairly difficult.
Russia's economic standing? Pretty close to between Brazil and Italy.
Well....if you bundle up the issues....then yes.
For 2025....Germany’s population was 83,467,117 (about 83.5 million).
Decline? Yeah....roughly 110,000 people, or 0.1-percent (over 2024).
Producing kids? The rate is now at 1.32 per female.
Oddly....if you break it down....German women are fairly close to 1.2, while non-German women are near 1.78.
Blame? More German women prioritize jobs/income over having kids.
Some Germans (mostly women) are concerned over climate change....feeling lesser populations are a plus.
Where all of this leads onto? If you do a spread sheet and figure numbers for 2046....it's probably a population of 77-million, and continuing onto 70-million by 2066.
German industry/commerce set for trouble? Well....if VW and the car companies continue to downsize....you don't need to worry about a manpower shortage.
Did I mention that 288,000 Germans exited/left the country in 2025, and a minimum of 250k probably will leave in 2026? Most wanted better salary levels, lower taxes, and more opportunities.
In some odd way....the California-strategy of downsizing....has been recreated here in Germany, and been fairly successful.
I sat last night watching ARD (public TV) and a news segment on a housing 'crisis'.
So....the basic story....the German Tenants' Association got onto the housing market crisis.
In their mind....Germany is around 1.4 million apartments/homes 'short'. So this problem leads to a welfare state problem. To fix it? They want the German federal gov't to build more units, and have some type of rent-brakes.
I've sat and reviewed over the past decade. It's an odd problem.
Germany (in the old West Germany days....before 1990)....had a fair amount of city/state-owned apartment buildings.....with set rents. In the 1980s....the city governments got a bit worried....most of the units were reaching 30-to-50 years old and required renovation. None of them were making enough to clearly cover the cost of renovation.
The federal response? They'd sell the units/buildings to a commercial company....use profits to cover some renovation and get out of city-run social housing.
What they didn't really expect.....the commercial operations did renovate housing....but came up to charge a fair amount of increase on rent. In some cases....it pushed renters out of highly urbanized regions (Bremen, Frankfurt, Munich and so-on).
What these associations want.....is a re-creation of social housing, and limited rents....meaning the income level for the city/state....would not be enough to cover renovation in 20-to-30 years.
Added to this 'burden'....it is apparent that plenty of housing exists....if you consider all of the country, but in the urbanized zone (the cities of 200k or more)....the draw of public interest to live there....instead of the rural areas....is another issue by itself.
It is a problem....but the solutions simply lay a path for bigger problems.
This week....I asked Grok (AI) to assemble the data on the German sugar-tax deal (still in draft form) and figure the per-person cost.
So....if you kept drinking your average amount of soda....at the average end....you'd have a yearly cost of 30-to-36 Euro. But then Grok said....you pay the sugar tax prior to the VAT....so the sugar tax-plus-VAT is around 35 to 43 Euro (per person).
But then Grok said....suppose you drink lesser sugar items (like ice tea or lemonade).....then your yearly cost is around 20 to 35 Euro.
Family of four? Still consuming sugar drinks? Figure in the 120 Euro range.
Enough to force a change of habit? I pondered upon this. With all the hyped-up cigarette taxation....there's virtually no data to suggest that people quit or lessened because of the taxes. Some data suggests that people went to rolling their smokes (thus saving money) or crossing the border into Luxembourg to buy lesser taxed smokes. I might go and suggest fewer than 5-percent of society cut sugar consumption.
What might happen? In three years....new coalition....new tax strategy....perhaps doubling of the sugar tax.
1. VW cost story....BILD did a comparison story over cost. VW-to-build-a-car per hour? 74 Euro.
To run the factory (electrical, cooling, heat, etc)....VW has drill around 4,850 Euro of each car to this detail.
In simple terms....it makes little sense to continue making VW's in Germany...when you have thirty-odd countries with a lesser cost situation for man-hours, electrical, or natural gas.
Odds of VW being sold-off? People would have laughed over this idea ten years ago....I'd say presently (within the next 2 years)....I'd give it a 25-percent chance of 'someone' (probably a Chinese company) buying them (to include Audi).
2. Two Bulgarians arrested in Munich area....state-police of Germany involved. Accused of arson attack on construction site....was to be for arms industry company. Lot of questions coming out of this.
3. German authorities 'hinting' that they may provide targeting 'advice' to Ukrainians....on where to hit Russia.
On my digging deeper into a conflict index (1-to-10).....this is a '8'.
4. Curious saga coming up in Koln. There's a something called the Coesfelder Liste (Coesfeld List). It was started back in 2024....being a list of people legally required to leave Germany.
So, the way this started....late November 2024, the Zentrale Ausländerbehörde (the authority over foreigners) in the city of Coesfeld....sent out a list to cities of the state (NRW).
Roughly 1,200 folks....they were vollziehbar ausreisepflichtig (meaning they were subject to enforceable deportation). Various countries from the Balkan states and Albania/North Macedonia.
The state office offered to obtain replacement travel documents so the people could be deported more easily.
The Koln office....didn't accept the offer....they more or less....lingered.
So....about a month ago...this list became public knowledge....with a Koln group (police say this part)....of 152 of the 471 people mentioned....linked to 568 offenses since November 2024.
Koln just innocently looking the 'other-way'? Well....locals seem to have the view....someone either got blackmailed, influenced or bribed.
Forced prosecution efforts now? Just from the talk....I'd say for remainder of 2026, and most of 2027....there's some intense legal stuff to occur.
My humble view? If you dug into all sixteen states....you'd probably view several more lists.
4. Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election poll? Election in roughly 2 weeks.
AfD at 35-percent, with SPD closely at 32-percent.
CDU at 8-percent, Greens at 5-percent, and Linke at 11-percent.
While AfD likely wins....they will be unable to form a coalition. SPD? Presently....they probably can form a coalition with the Linke and Greens.
End-result....roughly one-third of Mecklenburg public rates the migration woes as a big deal, and there's not likely to be much 'resolving' over the next five years. I'd say in 2031...AfD will probably have 40-to-45 percent on polls.
5. 4 August drone attempted attack at Leipzig Airport on a couple of planes? Well....authorities have been busy.
Intended target was a AN-124 cargo plane.
Around 7:30 that evening (still sunlight)....police say drone was sent to strike a wing near the fuel tanks....oddly....the charge separated on impact and did NOT detonate. Some time passed....a bus driver later found the device on the ground, and 'stomped' upon it.
DNA from the drones? Well....fantastic amount of work....led to two suspects:
First guy....a Russian-born man holding a Latvian passport. He's connected in some way to Russian intelligence. He entered Germany in late July via Berlin Brandenburg Airport...rented a car, and simply drove over to Leipzig. He stayed around for a day or two....then left Germany.
Second guy.....A Belarusian citizen who also holds a Russian passport. He had arrest records in Lithuania and Finland. He entered the Schengen region on an Italian tourist visa issued in Minsk in late April. He also has departed the country.
On the attempt? I don't think either guy has much background on drones....seems like they easily bungled this up, and the airport being extremely lucky.
Problem now? Well....Germans now realize how easy this drone-warfare might go, and there's serious worries ahead.
Two suspected sabotage incidents now reported. Occurring at high-voltage substations on opposite sides of Germany.
First one....1 Sep....2nd one today....roughly 12-to-15 hours apart.
What the police say? It would appear as some type of ground-launched homemade pyrotechnic projectiles.....stuff you'd build in the garage.
First one....Turnow-Preilack substation in Brandenburg. Second one....Amprion-operated substation in Bergheim/Rheidt (Rommerskirchen area (Koln, North Rhine-Westphalia).
Yeah....it's hyped up the national authorities....suggesting it's Russians behind it.
Failing in both attempts to take down the stations? Yeah....that is a factor.
Any proof of the Russians? No.
Based on the description....it's stuff that a 16-year old smart kid could assemble.
Likely the last poll before Sunday's election, by INSA:
AfD: 43-percent
CDU: 22-percent
SPD: 7-percent
Linke: 12-percent
Greens: 5-percent
So if you take the math-outcomes....projected seats....AfD will not have enough to avoid a coalition, and therefore....will not be the one building the coalition (left to the CDU).
Awkward position? Well....for the CDU....they'd have to partner with the Linke folks, and this is fairly big negative (nation-wide view) for CDU-voters.
Not much to say.
Around 9AM today....hand-grenade went off by a Turkish-run jewelry shop....near the main station of Augsburg. Two students slightly wounded.
German cops think it's a crime gang-episode (not terror-related). Trains were stopped briefly at the station.
1. All the bad-boy hype for Russia yesterday? Basically....the Foreign Minister and the Interior Minister have come to agree....'enough'.....they intend to apply a number of things to get Putin's attention. Economically, there was marginally anything left to screw with....but at this point, it's all 'gone'.
Putin's reaction? Mostly....'a grave mistake' by Germany.
More drone hybrid-warfare BS? I'd suggest that.
2. VW's board wants to terminate production at four plants: Emden, Hanover, Zwickau, Neckarsulm.
The Chancellor gave a interview yesterday.....in the midst of it....the moderator noted that "twenty-percent (of Germans) want to leave the country."
But the Chancellor was quick witted....responding....at least 80-percent want to stay. Then he noted....'to where'.
The numbers game? If 20-percent did up-and-leave....we'd go from 84-million down to around 67-million.
Who are the twenty-percent? Mostly folks determined that AfD cannot lead the country, or any Germany state.
Is it a bluff? Well....not entirely.
There's a poll recently done which asked if you could leave....(nothing to do with AfD)....that one in five Germans are entertaining to exit. Part of this group are people retiring and believing that they can get more bang-for-the-buck (like in Thailand or Turkey). Some of the group are fed-up with job opportunities. Some folks want to start a business....which usually is tough in Germany.
Out of this one-in-five group....I would imagine that 50-percent will get serious and write down some goals, and plans.
Was Merz correct? Where would folks go?
If you challenged these folks hyped-up and against AfD.....most would be talking about European countries...where right-wing parties are also growing. I doubt that they'd be happy to find this type of atmosphere at the 'new-land'.
After pondering this a good bit.....if the 20-percent were serious, I've come to realize that they are mostly of the SPD, Linke, and Green Party....plus some oddball folks in the CDU-CSU. So you'd automatically go and help AfD in future elections, by lessening the opposition.
Wild times....I must admit.
EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen gave a talk.....then suggested that Europe's 10 trillion Euro in private household bank savings accounts.....should be in some way....directed toward supporting companies and the economy..
How? This was not really laid out in detail.
How she gave the talk? Well...aimed at French employers....where she described these savings accounts in some form/way.....as "idle".
The fact that the savings are 'loaned' in a way to the bank.....to loan toward companies/private individuals? Missed in reality....I assume.
Banks likely to accept the idea? I seriously doubt it.
Current savings rates (Germany)....for 3 to 6 months....around 4-percent. I should note....this is the promotional rate to get you in the front-door
Risk factor with her idea? That's the more bothersome thing to ponder.
Why can't the EU attract investment folks? Yeah....that's the key factor to this story. If they aren't engaging....there's forty-odd questions to ask.
Well....it has become a bigger deal than normal....because AfD has the potential to win without the need for a coalition (meaning no partners).
If I offered 'odds'? I'd say it's a 30-percent chance that AfD will get in the 44-to-45 percent range.
No matter what....AfD gets first-place....probably unable to gain a coalition, and the CDU (2nd place) is put into a crappy position....where they form a state-gov't with the SPD, Greens, and Linke Party.
In the aftermath of this gov't form....I might go and suggest nearly half of CDU-voters across the nation grumbling about the conditions laid down by the Linke Party to get their partnership. In simple terms....it'll be discussed a good bit, and be seen as a negative for the CDU leadership.
The idea that some CDU-voters in the state are already grumbling and might vote AfD....just to send a message? There might be a few, but it probably won't change the outcome of the election.
The news media 'framing' a lot of anti-AfD chatter? Yes.
Last night....I watched a commercial TV hour where they tried to lay out the story of AfD n the state. They used 'good' refugees (working, tax-paying) to show that deporting is a bad agenda to support.
So...come Sunday evening...the results will be laid out. If you see AfD up around 44-percent or more....it's a big deal. If you see the CDU bosses a bit gloomy over the prospect of a coalition where they have to partner with the Linke Party....that's also a big deal.
Last night.....via ARD (German public TV) came the public forum show....'Miosga'.
So the moderator....Miosga....was talking up the Russians and Nord Stream II with the guest.
Oddly....the guest suggests that the blowing up of Nord Stream "benefited the Russians." Therefore, it was the Russians. Because they love blowing up the pipeline to their most important customer themselves."
I sat there for a minute....dazed.
Economically and militarily....there's zero benefit for the Russians.
The German police? They've solved most of the mystery....noting Ukrainians were being Nord Stream II blowing up
Miosga allowing that statement and not correcting it? That dazed me a bit as well.
This getting into the head of 100,000 intellectual Germans....believing the BS? That's the damage done.
If you really wanted some goofy BS....you might as well suggest it was the CIA, or the French secret police, or some radical environmental crazy-folks.
Lets start with the 'number'....258,845 individuals as of end of June 2026.....who are on the German 'to-exit/deport' list.
Why the number can't be resolved or greatly lessened? There's basically 3 issues at play. First, you might be a guy/gal from a unfriendly situation, and the German general rule is that you can't be sent back. Second, legally....there's various ways to delay-delay-delay. Third, it's a state-by-state task....NOT a federal task. Some states might have a high priority....some less so.
Politically....this number is killing both the SPD and CDU-CSU voter feelings. I'd generally say that 30-percent of the public feel this is top priority and problem number one. Even among the other 70-percent....it ranks in the top five problems with half of them.
Why Merz as Chancellor can't do much? Well....he'd have to have some place to send folks, in massive numbers. Maybe if we were talking about 10,000 or 20,000 folks....you might rig up some African end-destination....where you pay x-amount per each 'guest'. But in the 250k range? No one would sign up for stuff like this.
AfD? Over the past ten years....both the CDU-CSU and SPD....had chances to resolve this and got nowhere. They are furious that the AfD has gotten up to the 30-percent level.
What the AfD could do differently? This is the mystery question.
Some folks think that AfD might cut off all funding for the 258k....telling them by a certain date to go elsewhere (maybe France). The EU would probably hinder that.
The idea of fenced-off camps? Some think this might be suggested....but go nowhere.
The 258k being good outstanding folks? That idea probably doesn't work anymore.
Even if you had agreeable deportees....you'd require over 1,200 flights to transport them out.
The idea that the Chancellor has given up priorities over this....thinking it is unfixable? Well....some folks might suggest this. It's easier to talk about pension-reform.....education reform....or even renovation-of-bridges reform.....than it is to talk over deportees.
For these odd reasons...AfD will linger around and be able to upset election results.
It was basically a 3-point win for the 'NO' vote.
Curiously, about 90-percent of the districts of the isle....went 60-plus percent 'NO'. In the capital city....it was around 44-percent 'NO'...meaning they were more supportive of the idea.
Done deal? I suspect in five to seven years....another vote.
EU domination on rules....got caught up in the public mind? I'd suggest this.
Last week....the Wiesbaden city council came up and started the next tram discussion.
About four years ago....they spent a fair amount of time, and eventually discovered that no one really is hyped up in the city for having a tram (unlike Mainz).
They went to a public vote....failing.
So the topic is up again.
This time? They want the maglev train route going from Ostfeld (area of major home building near the Army post and the south cemetery area).....over to the central train station. More or less....a 6 km route. If you asked about stops? I'd say no more than 7 stops total.
Marginally worth the cost? Yeah.
There are three problems in Wiesbaden for trams. First, the streets aren't really built in a way to support it. Second, if you wanted to max out....there needs to be two routes....each reaching the central station as the center point. Feeling supportive across the city isn't there. Finally....no one wants three or four years of renovation/construction going on.
First from that Christopher Street Day event.....one dead and ten wounded....the terrorist is dead....however, this odd story of a 2nd guy involved....does not go away.
I watched a news piece, and the topic still lingers on. They don't know who the guy is, or is involvement angle....just that someone is identified on the scene, and afterwards....he quickly walks away.
My suspicion? I think some guy was not part of the CSD group....just an odd character watching things, and as soon as the action started.....he left.
Second, oddly....the 1980 Oktoberfest attack has come up again.
It's placed in the reasoning that the German guy (failed apprentice German).....was a far-right wing or Nazi-type. Then in the reasoning....this one attack is what drove the fest folks mount up serious security. In this view....it's far-right idiots that have triggered the massive security BS for the fest.
Well....I've talked to Americans (not German) over the attack, security, and the BS.
Most believe that the one guy responsible....was a nutcase (not lefty or righty). Some evidence exists that he was in a neo-Nazi group.
The police action? The minute they had a 'story'...they ended the investigation....going no further because he was dead.
Security for 1981/1982? Marginally improved....most of these Americans say this.
The 2025 episode? It was mostly over a distraught guy....threatening some explosive, and the fest shut-down for a couple of hours....with added security over bags/backpacks.
Trying to mount a massive 'safe' Oktoberfest? I'd say it's nearly impossible. By the time you figure around 400,000 folks entering the grounds (per day)....you'd need several hundred folks to check on people. But added to this.....once a bomb goes off....there' at least 20,000 drunk Germans who are probably not in any shape to run, escape or exit the place. It's not something you want to plan around or hope to find a 'fix' for.
