7 May 2026: Germany: 9 Things

 1.  New German military questionnaire is mandated for a response.  So, the Bundeswehr said yesterday....roughly 25-percent of young men are NOT responding.

From the group  that did respond....around half of them said they were agreeable to a boot-camp situation, and six months of 'duty'.  Bundeswehr added...just because they said they were agreeable....doesn't mean they'd sign up.

Those who did not respond?  Well...the Army says they will be threatened with a fine.  

2.  It's been around 2 years since Germany legalized weed/cannabis.   Some folks are beginning to comment....nothing much has changed...meaning that illegal weed sales is still being conducted.  

3.  Read a Focus business article....for you to retire in Germany and be 'middle-class'....pension level has to be 1850 Euro a month.

4.  Odd Lufthansa story from yesterday....they are reviewing options for long-haul flights...if jet-fuel shortages exist.

One idea  being floated....having  a stop-over (probably in the stan-republics or Russia)....to fuel up for Asia trips.  

You'd be adding two to three hours to the trip.  

5.  Economics Minister....Katherina Reiche....wants to overturn the ban on oil and gas heating starting in 2045. 

Drafted up currently.  Chancellor Merz says this idea is “open.” 

SPD support?  I'd give it a 10-percent chance at best.....climate target is their focus.

The agenda is to force everyone down a heat-pump 'path'.

6.  New poll for Sachsen-Anhalt state election (in four months):

AfD at 41-percent.  CDU at 26-percent.  

Greens at 4-percent (not enough for seats).  SPD at 7-percent.  Linke at 12-percent.

Meaning?  AfD, if they stay at 41-percent...can't build a coaltion....the CDU could in theory partner with SPD and Linke to have a 50-plus-percent coalition.

HOWEVER, in the next four months...if AfD reaches 45-percent...it'll be fairly close to a NO-coalition situation.....one party gov't at that point.

7.   Lot more chatter on this Hantavirus.  It apparently has a 2-to-21 day incubation period. Presents initially as flu.

8. I watched about 15 minutes of public forum show....Maischberger....last night...via Channel 1.

Climate change talk....guest wanted to turn German citizens into CO₂ traders....where you had good numbers/bad numbers....and you would figure into certificate trading.

Pretty sure that 90-percent of society would not buy into this idea.

9. Carsten Linnemann, General Secretary of the CDU Party, gave a talk yesterday....suggesting that 50,000 card-carrying CDU members....might exit from the party.

Hondius Story

 For about 36 hours, I've been following this hantavirus story.

Basic facts....it's a small passenger vessel that is Dutch-flagged...named 'Hondius'.  They've had a outbreak on it of hantavius (likely got it from Argentina when it last docked).  

149 guests were onboard....three dead from the virus so far.

What the medical folks say....the virus is mostly spread by rodents/mice...not by human-contact.  Well....there's some discussion that 'maybe' it evolved and goes person-to-person.

Dynamics?  Death-rate is figured between 1-percent and 15-percent....but your  fragile health situation might increase your odds.  Based on reporting....the three dead were older folks.

So the folks surviving....would like to get off, and they are nearing the Canary Islands....so there is this request to dock. The Premier-President of the Canary Islands, Fernando Clavijo, says 'no-way'...opposing the plan of the Spanish central government and the World Health Organization (WHO). 

Forcing the PM (Sanchez) into a corner?  I expect some medical authorities to fly in and take charge...letting the vessel to dock, but holding passengers for a few days until they sort out the mess.

Quarantining passengers?  Yeah....there's that option.

If they find it has progressed to human-to-human contact?  Docking is going to be a tough discussion.

Ghost Story

 I will occasionally pick up some Brit news pieces.  This AM....I got to one oddball story.  The Daily Star says...something to the effect...they found a paranormal 'expert' who claims the UK is running out of ghosts.  Reason?  Well...they say ghosts are dying off.

The problem with some story like this....a hundred Brits will read it....with forty folks getting chatty at the local pub tonight...about ghosts dying off.  

Bartender will get into this...asking HOW the ghost die off....with this conversation going on for three hours.

Someone will eventually suggest we need fresh new ghosts...out of thin air.

Then someone will suggest....can't we get AI to interface, and provide fake-ghosts?

The reality?  They've run out of Prince Harry or King Charles bogus stories to discuss.

Two Odd Stories

 1.  Is Israel about to provide jet-fuel to Germany?

Yes.....5 May agreement.  Israeli Energy and Infrastructure Minister Eli Cohen and Foreign Minister Gideon Sa'ar announced that Israel will transfer surplus jet fuel to Germany (Berlin’s request). 

Necessity?  Well....this follows the ongoing crisis in the Strait of Hormuz (blocked by Iran since late February.

Israel confirmed it has enough surplus from its refineries to begin shipments.  What's left out of the story...is the amount.

Shocker?  This move was coordinated quickly and publicly.

Natural gas talked about? Yes....they've got plenty to export.  

2.  At some point (July-August)....the Pentagon's UFO files are directed to be released.  Lot of speculation building up.

I'll  go ahead and predict that zero German belief...if the files suggest crashes, recoveries, or alien visitations.  

You could bring the alien on ARD, do a 6-hour interview with the guy, and roughly 99-percent of German society would suggest 'deep-fake' BS.

6 May 2026: Germany: 8Things

 1.  Timmy-the-whale-update:  Argument brewing....some pro-Timmy folks now believe that data-tracking/status stuff....is bluffing, and that Timmy is dead.

Proof?  Not much to really ponder upon.  If you ask me....leaving Timmy in that German coastal  area....you would have seen Timmy dead sooner or later.

2.  Biontech, the Mainz company that made the Covid vaccine.....is in serious financial woes. 

3. Poll done....ONLY 11-percent of Germans are satisfied over the CDU-CSU-SPD coalition.  Done by RTL/N-TV.

Another recent poll centered on around 60-percent of Germans wanting new election.

My advice....just stick with the present crew....unless you really wanted maximum turmoil/craziness.

4. About that Leipzig car-attack....if you read through twenty-odd news groups....you come to three odd factors.

First, that car-ramming attacker....apparently did admit himself to a psychiatric ward....on his own. In this process....I'll note that he was married and had a kid.

Second, somewhere along a couple of days in the clinic...the management/psychiatrists apparently decided that this guy was too violent/aggressive to be in their facility....so they put him out on the street.

Third, he was dismissed Sunday....Monday comes.....where he rammed the car through a crowd in Leipzig’s city center at 80 km/h.

Out of the 410-odd psychiatric clinics that exist in Germany....you can't really find data to suggest what number handle violent folks...I'm guessing  less than 5-percent.

5.  Explaining Romania?  Summer of 2025...election came up and a pro-EU party 'won'....but they had to form a 4-party coalition to gain power (getting 50-plus percent of seats).  I'll just say it.....this was a weak/marginalized coalition.  Ten months later....because of economic woes...one of the parties walk out....ending the coalition, and forcing a new election. Just being pro-EU was not enough.

6.  Poll done by INSA....suggesting how Germans feel about the next coalition.  So around  26-percent of Germans want a CDU-CSU-AfD coalition.  23-percent want a CDU-CSU-SPD coalition (what exists today).  24-percent want a Green-SPD-Linke coalition (all left).  Then you have the 4th option....27-percent who really give a damn.     

Yeah...the 4th group is ahead of the other three.

7.  Another poll done....says 55-percent of  Germans expect a premature end to the current CDU-CSU-SPD coalition.....meaning more than half the voters feel this way.

8. Vileck mayor talking over exit of the 5,000 US troops from local area....millions in income....to dissolve.

What Percentage Of Germans Worry About Artificial Intelligence ('KI' in German)?

A insurance company asked this in mid-2025, publishing the results in their annual  R+V “Ängste der Deutschen 2025” survey....concluding it was near 32-percent...who 'feared' KI.

For a number of months, it's been on my mind....one out of three....with fear.

Why?

Well....I think a fair number got this 'panic' via public TV and mass media.  If you went to details....most probably have the fear that their jobs are in jeopardy....because of KI.

I asked my German wife over this...her company has been talking KI for five years now....swearing up and down that it was 'coming'.  So far....the performance level in tests? They've been crap. It is getting smarter....but the wife says at the pace of things, it might be twenty years before the humans are dismissed.

The day when I really start to worry? It's probably when ARD or ZDF (the public TV networks)....dismiss the live performance newscast each night....letting KI take over and give the nightly news.

What Is The App W Social?

 W Social (also called W or wsocial.eu) is a new European social media platform.  It's supposed to be a 'clean'/'pure' alternative to platforms like X (Twitter). 

Initially talked about...January 2026...at the World Economic Forum in Davos and is supposed to start a launch in the next couple of days here in Europe.

Design?  Well...it's supposed to be VERIFIED humans only....NO bots.  Every single user must verify their identity with government ID.  Biometric data? To be processed via server-side and deleted immediately afterward....leaving only a code, passport country and year of birth.

Who will use it?  My belief is a fair number of politicians, journalists,  and intellectuals.

Trying to compare to numbers at F-Book or X?  No....even at the one-year point....I'll predict they have maybe 10-percent of the numbers.

Selling to the public?  Over  and over....the term 'verified' will be uttered.  Eventually, the EU will demand that F-Book and the rest....must also be verified.

Just four Political Observations Over Germany

 1.  I think that Merkel (without really planning it)....brought the CDU Party to a totally neutral point....where they are mostly a 'partner' of the SPD Party. The conservative 'label' is long gone.

Not a plus or minus....just something you have to contend with, at this point.

2. If you were to discount Chancellor Merz, and seek out some new 'filler'....with the broad requirement being financial/economic 'mechanic'....there's no one really existing in that category.

3.Personal opinion....a majority of Germans are eyeballing rich Germans....saying they got too much wealth, and we got to take more of that away.

After they accomplish this....if the economy still seems crappy, what's the next invention to resolve problems?

4. Within ten years....German healthcare will be so expensive....that the gov't arranges some procedures in India, Vietnam and Thailand....flying Germans there...for inexpensive care.

5 May 2026: Germany: 6 Things

 1. Leipzig, car drove through a shopping district....killing 2, wounding 3.

Guy is local boxer-trainer....known to police (meaning they've had encounters with him before)....German....had been recently released from a psychiatric hospital.

2.  Focus business article: "Managers and entrepreneurs have never been as disappointed with the political leadership in Berlin as they are after just one year of the Merz government. The bitter consequences of this inability to reform are already becoming apparent."

End of 2024....commerce core of Germany were desiring a true recovery out of the Covid-era....have yet to really see it.

3. New Mercosur agreement.....between EU and South American countries in effect.  Big shipment of Brazilian chicken ordered/delivered to Greece. Test done....EIGHTY-percent of first shipment....contaminated with Salmonella, 

4.  The wealth tax (Vermögenssteuer) is now being discussed in Germany.  Proposal to reintroduce an annual tax on high net personal wealth (assets minus liabilities, like real estate, stocks, cash, etc., but not on income).

I should say this...up until 1997....such a tax existed in old West Germany and unified Germany....Constitutional Court examined it, and said it was unfairly written.

Negatives?  Well...capital flight will obviously occur.  I will note that some folks are commenting that this idea  violates the coalition agreement that rules out tax increases (CDU would have to agree strongly with this).  Critics also point to past experiences and studies showing wealth taxes can be hard to administer and may reduce investment.

Likely passing?  I'd give it a 50-50 chance.  On the positive side....current stagnation would continue, and more German companies would be bought-out/owned by Chinese operations.  This would speed up declining public support of both CDU and SPD parties....leading to gains for  Greens/Linke and AfD.

5. BYD (China car company) in talks to buy a VW factory in Dresden.

6. Study done....on Germans having  'cash' to invest in retirement funds....roughly two out of three....lack such cash-flow.

5,000 Troop Removal Announcement

 The US is withdrawing 5,000 US troops from the US base in Vilseck, Bavaria (Upper Palatinate). 

This is reported around noon...via BILD.

The troops being withdrawn are from the Stryker Brigade. The brigade is stationed at Rose Barracks on the Grafenwöhr training area. 

What is not said....if the troops go back to the US, or are to be based in another European country.

It Just Got Tougher To Get Swedish Citizenship Status

 Sweden passed a couple of changes....to obtain citizenship:

1.  You need eight years of residence....without  'troubles' (meaning arrests)

2.  Show a income

3.  Cleared a point of not getting any social benefits

4.  Passed the Swedish language exam

5.  Finally....accomplished the exam on Swedish values and society

I looked at the list....these are not difficult issues.  On the income requirement?  Well...even if you were a bakery assistant/clerk, or a bus-driver....you'd show some  type of income and not be a poverty-status welfare guy.

How Might A Base Closure Collapse A Economic Bubble

 Back in the 1990s...I was stationed at Ramstein, and got into a conversation with a American retired GI....who had this interesting economic story.

In the region of Ramstein....some German developer had acquired a farm area that was 15 minutes driving from the east-gate and west-gate.  He had this idea of property development.....building houses which were attractive to Americans, and 'pricey' (meaning that he knew the max-housing pay-out for senior NCOs, and  most officers....which was about 2 times what a German would pay.

The development would end up as fifty homes....all upscale....this plotted around 1980-1982 timeframe. 

Local wealthy well-to-do Germans bought the homes, and were to be used as rentals...paying the German back more quickly, and thus getting the bank mortgage done ten years prior to 'normal'.  In your retirement years....this was a big-deal for added pension status.

The key failure?  Well....the developer had two 'books'....for the construction guys/tax authorities.  He brought in  non-Germans and non-EU folks....cash-basis, and avoided a lot of tax reporting.  He got into divorce trouble, and the wife reported.....which got him several years in prison.  

Yeah, the houses still sold, and throughout the 1980s, 1990s, 2000s, 2010s, 2020s....it's paid well.

If the base were to close....the money-maker would collapse.

Around Ramstein today? I'd  guess that twenty-odd developments and apartment buildings like this exist.  The number of businesses, cafes, restaurant that have 50-percent American GI?  A humble guess at more than a hundred....maybe going toward 150.  

Yeah, they've worked hard to build  up a economic bubble.

If it were to close?  In the first year alone....there's likely to be 2,000 insolvencies to be declared....with a minimum of 1,000 apartments/homes to be laying there vacant....some for five to ten years.

Political Chatter Over Saxony-Anhalt's Election (Early Sep 2026)

 6 Sep 2026 is the state election day for S-A.

Oddly....NO polling has been done by anyone since mid-March 2026.

How things looked from that poll?  AfD was leading  with 38-percent, and the CDU was sitting at 25-percent. Three other parties were over the 5-percent point, and marginally showing numbers.

I suspect things have changed a bit, and AfD presently sits near 42-percent....with the CDU  in a weakened position (probably barely at 22-percent).

Yeah, it's possible that the SPD falls below the 5-percent point, and that you end up with the BSW folks, the Greens, and Linke...accounting for 20-odd percent.

The non-seat-holding votes adding up to 15-plus percent?  That's the real 'fear'....that you'd have a fair number of votes....without representation and weakening any chance for the CDU to build a coalition

My General Prediction On The Trump Base Closures

 After pondering this for a while....I will offer three predictions:

1.  This first wave out of Germany (the 5,000)....I suspect will be Spang's 52nd Wing, the 10th AAMDC (Missile guys), and at least one additional Army unit....which I think they will all go to one Poland military base (consolidated).

2.   The Spain-Italy exit?  Just a crazy thought....I think this deal-making going on in Morocco....will lead to a US base....with most all of  the US assets in Spain and Italy going to one Moroccan military base (on the Atlantic).

3.  Finally, I suspect that Romania will end with some US assets (out of Germany).  

Pure speculation....but truthfully, Trump can say NATO survives on, but in other locations.  

4 May 2026: Germany: 3 Things

 1.  Trump indicates that closures of military bases in Italy and Spain will also occur.  He's not saying an end to NATO....which begs the question....where would he move operations?

2. All this increased US tariff stuff?  Well....this goes back to an agreement signed by the US and the EU in July of 2025....which was to be set to 15-percent, if the EU accomplished a number of vote-requirements.

Well....on their  'must-do' list....this was not that important....so the vote measures were never done.  Crapped upon the BMW, Mercedes and VW folks?  Yeah....they have a reason to be angry over the lack of attention.

3.  Via the Sunday night forum show (Caren Miosga - moderator)....Chancellor Merz gave a talk.  I watched about 25 minutes of it....he mostly appears with goals, but no real plan....he did threaten the SPD that he has been "very patient so far." 

Mixed message....some Germans say it sounds like the beginning of the end. Some might say that the CDU Party is simply another version of the SPD Party.

3 May 2026: Germany: 4 Things

1.  Timmy-the-whale-update:  Well....he finally exited the barge.  The story now?  Mostly over...I suspect.

2.  The US announcement of 5,000 troops leaving Germany?  Well....Trump updated this slightly....saying  'more' than 5,000 are going.

They aren't saying the 5,000 will return to the US.   My thoughts....the 5,000 will end up in Poland (probably Spang's 52nd Wing as a large part of the 5,000). 

3. Yesterday....Bavaria's Premier-President Söder....gave a talk...suggesting on the abolition of the electricity tax and the solidarity surcharge.

Yeah, it'll freak out the SPD folks.  But most Germans would readily agree on the electricity tax being curtailed/cut.

4.  Two guys were shot in the Neukölln district of Berlin last night....one fairly serious. Police investigating.

What Defeated Russia In Reality?

 I would offer five observations of what happened to cause Russian failure?

1. The Russian generals wanted to fight the 1960s version of their 'war-plan'.....tank-warfare.....Ukraine refused.

2.  NATO quietly gave intelligence 'value' to Ukraine....tons of it in fact.

3.  Drone-warfare became a bigger deal...than tanks.

4.  Russian mentality of minimum training....lessen  their impact on the field.

5.  Russian banking collapse/failures....became a bigger deal than the war itself, but Putin failed to grasp that.

What Caused The Scholz Coalition Collapse In 2024?

There were simply factors from day one....which made the threesome (SPD-Greens-FDP) disagreeable.

Near the end....the trigger-point was a months-long deadlock over the 2025 federal budget. There was going to be a shortfall of funds....which the SPD and Greens pushed for increased public investment and spending.  Lindner of the FDP (Finance Minister) said 'no'....going to the route of strict fiscal discipline. 

If the SPD or Greens had controlled the 'seat' of the Finance Ministry?  Well....they would have gotten the taxes increases, and the FDP would have forced into a corner...mostly grumbling.

How doe this 'frame' fit for the problems currently?  The SPD wants a bigger budget, and to reach it....they insist upon more taxation.  About half of the CDU-CSU crew....aren't that supportive of  the idea.

I'm not saying this is a carbon copy of the 2024 problem....but it has certain elements of that problem.

Why was Merz the CDU 'answer'?  Well....he was to be this economical smart guy....to get the economy back into turbo-mode.  So far, he's failed....which begs a lot of questions.

I will offer this observation...between the energy cost issue....the Russian-Ukraine issue....the import of cheap Chinese goods....and true cost of environmentally saving the Earth, the German economy is stagnant.  It doesn't matter who comes next to be Chancellor, the same issues exist.  

How I Think The Ukraine-Russia 'War' Ends

 Back three years ago....I thought that Putin would 'wake-up' and grasp his no-win situation....I was wrong.  In his epic-mindset....there has to be a surrender of Ukraine.

So the end in my mind....Putin at some point will have a stroke/heart-attack, and goes into hiding for several weeks.  The Putin-in-charge crew keeps the events engaged...but at some point....several of the generals figure out the stroke.

Over a 24-hour period....the Duma gets involved, and there's likely to be a massive shut-down of military operations.

Then....Russian troops just start packing up and leaving the front.  

Mass confusion of who is in charge follows...for several days.

By the 7th day of this new era....there is no military front, and every Russian soldier has left the region.

At this point,  I think it's entirely possible that a break-up occurs....Russia turning into five-to-ten states...maybe more. 

Ukraine...in effect.....wins.  

2 May 2026: Germany: 6 Things

 1.  Timmy-the-whale-update:  Well....they got to the North Sea drop-off point....opened the barge door, and encouraged Timmy to escape.

Timmy said 'no', and has remained in the barge.

They probably have food/supplies to linger for a week, but it doesn't appear that Timmy wants to leave his new 'friends'.  Timmy likes the attention and free-food deal....'freeloader-status'?

2. Chancellor Merz, and the coalition?

Well....lot of chatter has started up....people losing confidence....CDU-CSU losing numbers....heartburn going on.

So....four possible outcomes: (1) CDU-CSU might dissolve the coalition....going minority situation....with very poor outcomes likely. (2) Putting Merz up for a vote of confidence....hoping that the members of the CDU-CSU and SPD would agree....this being very risky. (3) Following a no-confidence vote....asking the members to elect a new Chancellor....without anyone in a clear 'win' category.  (4) Finally....call for a new election....with bad numbers anticipated for the SPD, and CDU-CSU.

Added to the crap?  Well...people are now focused on the Saxony-Anhalt election this fall....with the AfD nearing 40-percent (likely be top winner, but unable to form a gov't).  The retired President of Germany (Gauk) came out yesterday and said that the CDU (likely 2nd place) ought to take up a relationship with the Linke Party and form a gov't coalition for the state.  I would imagine half of all CDU-voters in the state would say 'what-the-hell', and avoid voting for the CDU....going to the AfD and giving them 50-plus percent.  His speech really didn't help matters.

There's a 'path' or two for Merz remaining, but this CDU-CSU and SPD relationship is in a spiral....mostly over tax growth and budget issues.  Oddly, it's almost the same causes for the last coalition to end.

3.  Trump says 5,000 US troops leaving Germany....but didn't say Army or Air Force, or installations.

4.  Jet-fuel shortages look more and more likely by June.

5.  'Social-cohesion' lacking....public poll near 70-percent...in Germany.

6.  If a no-confidence vote occurs, and a new federal election occurs....who do I see as CDU-CSU likely candidate?  My four picks are Markus Söder (CSU), Hendrik Wüst (CDU), and Thorsten Frei (CDU) and Julia Klöckner (CDU).

If you were grading on capabilities....Söder leads.  If you grade on public appeal...Julia Klöckner leads.  If you grade on insider-support (Merkel-wing)....Wüst leads.

From the SPD?  It won't matter....they won't get past 12-percent (both the Greens and Linke will be ahead of them).