Why Germans Get 'Leave-Germany-Chatty' These Days?

 1970s, 1980s, 1990s, 2000s, 2010s......you never heard Germans consumed to leave or exit Germany....if such-and-such political extreme won.  In the past ten years....between the Greens, the Linke and the AfD....I'd say around five to seven percent of Germans will get hyped-up and chatty....indicating they may 'HAVE' to leave Germany.  

My German wife occasionally gets this way....she works with people who talk like this.

Part of this....I blame on public TV with their forums, and 'voices-given-hard-left or hard-right activists'.

Some of this is left-over crap from the 1930s/1940s.....where people fear repeating the past.  Just watching Babylon Berlin....got my wife hyped-up.

A phobia-like stage?  I'm inclined to believe that.

Key problem?  It's mostly the next question....sure....go ahead and leave....where to?  That's typically where reality starts to fall into place, and the crowd can't identify anyplace that fits weather-wise, or economically.

Where this is leading onto?  I'm wondering by 2030....if we double the number of German-leave-folks.

Why Can't The CDU-CSU Build A Coalition With The AfD?

 Around seven years ago, I started to ponder this.  It's not a simple suggestion.

Presently?  If you count nationally.....between the CDU-CSU and AfD....they probably have around 60-percent of votes.  Of the sixteen states.....in some...they might have around 35-percent.  I'd say from about eight states....it's closer to 60-to-65 percent.  

The Merkel 'rule' not to hand-shake 'hands' with the 'far-right-extreme-right'?  Generally, she pressed hard that you as a CDU-CSU member....could never build partnerships with the AfD.  

Some of this 'design' was a Merkel effort to build the CDU after Kohl....into a center-center political organization....NOT a right-of-center organization. Some of this helped to persuade SPD-voters who were leaning slight toward the 'center'....to find voting trends/patterns with the CDU (rather than the SPD).

This way of thinking stuck around....from 2013 when migration started up and continuing up even to today.  

The personal pick of Merkel to replace her?  Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer (AKK)....had this thought process and leaned the same way.  The Merkel-path for AKK?  It lasted about 18 months, then dissolved.  Fair number of CDU executive members....weren't that supportive of Merkel hand-picking AKK.

The 2nd 'pick'?  Armin Laschet, Premier-President of NRW.....goofed around and lost the 2021 election....bringing the Merkel ownership of the party to an end.

Olaf Scholz (the SPD Chancellor, up to 2025), and Merz?  They both kept the migration path in place from the Merkel era.

Yeah....they both talked about fixing the migration problem, or limiting entry, or adding more police powers/manpower. 

Why AfD's 'vision' can't find CDU support?  

I put this into four categories.

First, in individual states....there's probably 30 to 50 percent of CDU/CSU voters that would like to hear the coalition talks between the two.  The national leadership has to 'correct' this behavior on occasion.

Second, there's this perception of Nazi-crap.  Oddly, if you lined up the top ten players of the AfD....at least two of them use 1930s era quotes, and run campaigns that seem slightly hyped-up over past Nazi promises.  The bulk of CDU voters have a bitter 'taste' of this era and don't want to partner because of that.

Third, as much as AfD promises to deport 'problem-migrants' (there's upwards to 250,000 presently on a national deport-list (either because of failed asylum applications, crime, bad-boy behavior, etc). How this AfD deport effort would be fixed/resolved over the present program?  Unknown. 

Several countries on this bulk deport list...don't want the bad-boys back.  AfD can't answer how this would be fixed.  Some suggest just dumping them into Africa (after you pay them some bribe to accept them).

Some CDU-voters see a coalition effort as questionable because you can't clearly present a solution.

Fourth, and final....because of a crappy birth-rate....there's a national shortage of workers.  So the CDU-CSU (and SPD) folks....see a need to have migration.  Presently, the gov't says around 300,000-plus migrants with 'green-cards' are employed for retirement-homes, clinics, and hospitals.  

I can walk around Mainz and Wiesbaden....noting a couple of thousand non-Germans hired and paying taxes while working.  If I were on a humble guess....75-percent of migrants are fitting in and part of the German economy.  I went to the drink-shop yesterday....both the clerk and stock-guy....were migrants.  Couple of months ago...I stopped at a Burger King regionally....noting seven Sri Lankan ladies...manning the entire flipper-force.  

An odd part of this discussion?  I noted about a year ago in some German state election....the news crew had analyzed new incoming voter trends for the AfD.  There were x-number from the Greens, SPD, CDU and even Linke Party.  They weren't clear conservative types....they were just fed-up over crime, the lack of deportation, and the appearance of no one in charge of resolving bad-boy migrant issues. They'd like to fire someone, or some party....but can't seem to ID such a person or group.

Where things are going?

At some point....the economic stumbling will reach a stage where blame will be dished out, and neither the SPD or CDU-CSU folks can present themselves.  The AfD?  Well....if they were smart and grasped the evolving mess....they'd evolve their migration 'promise', and get into a Trump-like state of mind....fixing the economy, and stabilizing jobs. The key here?  You need the Ukraine-war ended....Russian natural gas to be turned-on, and the energy costs to be cut drastically.  

There is no simple fix, and the AfD is not the perfect coalition-partner to 'dance' with....but so far (up to the fall of 2026)....this 'dance-contest' and music has been a two-string banjo experience.  

My Humble Thoughts On Merz's Exit

 There's no real comparison (historically) to compare against the current woes....so it's hit and miss.

There are five state elections that currently worry the CDU Party (Merz's crew): 18 Apr (Schleswig-Holstein, and the Saarland),  25 Apr (Nordrhein-Westfalen), 30 May (Bremen), and 26 Sep (Niedersachsen). 

If you drew up a list of the top forty CDU members after Merz....I'd suggest virtually all of them are worried about the numbers/polling for these five state elections.

They also are worried that switching out the Chancellor situation....and gaining no momentum.....just makes matters worse. 

For the most part, I see only two guys who can fill the shoes....NRW's Premier President....Wust, and Bavaria's Premier President....Soder.  That's it.

A gain in some way?  As long as they are handcuffed to the coalition-partner (the SPD)....there's no gain (my humble belief).

Dumping everything and asking for a new national election before you get to the 18th of April 2027?  It's a crazy idea, but it's probably worth thinking about.

 Was Merz over-sold?  He was supposed to be a economic-builder and smart guy on industry.  But that image never 'arrived'.

If Merz sticks it out....through all of 2027?  Of the five elections, I'd go and suggest that one out of three normal CDU voters....probably will find some alternate party to vote for in 2027.

Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania: Election Oddity

 One odd aspect of this state election....there are a total of 688 'districts' in the state (northern coastal region).

SPD won (had a majority of votes) in 59 districts.

AfD?  Well....they had a majority of votes in 626 districts.

The SPD wins?  Urbanized areas....cities and towns of 'size'.

Rural areas?  Mostly went to AfD.

21 Sep 2026: Germany: 6 Stories

 1.  Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania final count.  BSW and CDU....fell below 5-percent (4.9 for the CDU, and 4.8 for BSW)....so neither get seats in the state parliament.  Dismal situation for Merz, and crew.  Odd landscape for the state....left-of-center SPD leads with a coalition of Greens and Linke Party.  AfD is the opposition (by its self).  

General belief....there's likely to be a exit-plan of some type for Merz as Chancellor....by early spring 2027.  

2.  Interior Minister said over the weekend....he wants to revoke the special-status of Syrians to stay in Germany...meaning with x-amount of time....they'd all have to exit.  Odds of this happening?  I'd say less than 50-50 chance.

3.  Oktoberfest spending?  Per-day....it's around 92 Euro per person....for beer/food/fun.

4.  Remmo.....crime-clan 'boss' in Berlin....showed up at the Linke Party victory party.  

5.  Berlin-City election odd factor....almost 50-percent of people under the age of 35...voted for the Linke Party.

6. This brief suggestion of the SPD winning in Mecklenburg?  Yeah, it's odd....polls for about 3 months had shown AfD ahead by 3-to-5 point...each time.  Then one single ending-poll concludes that the SPD had passed the AfD by 2 points....then the ARD/ZDF public TV folks appeared the week prior and did a heavy blitz of interviews to support the SPD Party. 

Invented?  Well....it makes one wonder.

Berlin-City Election

 BSW: 5-percent

CDU: 20-percent

Linke: 24.5-percent (winner)

SPD: 12-percent

Greens: 15-percent

AfD: 16-percent

No real shocker.  Highly divided in the city at this point.

State Election: Mecklenburg-Vorpommern

 Count as of 6 PM:

AfD wins: 37-percent.

SPD: 35.5-percent

CDU: 5.5-percent

Linke: 7.5-percent

Greens: 5.5-percent

BSW: 5-percent

Coalition build?  AfD is unlikely to get a coalition situation....so it's likely to be the SPD, Linke and Greens.  Shocker?  Last polling suggested better outcome for SPD.

Is There A France Fuel Crisis?

 Well....it's slowly developed into one (very noticeable in mid-Sep).

France is stuck with both a fuel shortage and a price-hike.

Roughly 11-percent of stations are short on either gas, or diesel. If you go back two weeks ago....it was 9-percent.

Pricing?  Diesel now runs around 2.39 Euro per liter....with some stations up around 2.50 to 2.60.

Blame?  First, there's the global shift in delivery going on.  Then you have some French ports being blocked by fisherman, and then there's a 'rush' for demand at the lower-priced stations.  Finally, one can bring up....higher number of diesel cars (nearing 50-percent).  

Same in Germany?  No.  There is escalation of prices, but no shortage.

20 Sep 2027: Germany: 6 Stories

 1.  Day one of Oktoberfest: around 600 individuals treated for serious intoxication.  

2.  Dormant bank accounts?  Germany has identified tens of thousands accounts...totaling around four billion Euro....just sitting there and no visit by the owner in at least a decade. The Green Party is writing a draft law that 'someone' (maybe the banks....maybe the gov't) needs to review ownership....find the owners or heirs, or dissolve the account into the government's hands/pocket).  

3.  Voting day in two German states.  

State of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern?  One single recent poll suggests that the SPD will win (over the AfD) by 2 points.  Previous polls gave 3-point edge to AfD over the SPD.  

State of Berlin-City?  Fairly divided...Linke Party figured to win with 23-percent of the vote...closely followed by the CDU, SPD, Greens, and AfD. 

4.  Fifth and last season of Babylon Berlin TV-series has started (last night).  

I strongly endorse the series but you need to start with season one and go through each season. 

5.  N-TV report....mid-summer 2027....conscription/draft....probably will start (numbers aren't reaching level that people expected). 

First step....you get a letter to come to a health exam by a military doctor-team.  

6.  LNG (natural gas) storage for Germany....at 56.3-percent....goes up around .1 per day presently.  If this were a serious winter....there would be issues brewing by early March.  

Is There a Gas Crisis Starting In Germany?

 What you have....is a public perception....as gas deliveries slowed slightly (US-Iran chaos)....the typical price creeped up.  So E-10 fuel is around 2.40 Euro presently. 

So the blunt truth.  There are two taxes and levies....on each liter of fuel sold.

Energiesteuer (energy tax, formerly Mineralölsteuer) is a fixed exercise duty of 65.45 cents per liter on standard sulfur-free gasoline. 

Mehrwertsteuer (VAT): 19-percent applied to the entire net price, including the energy tax and other levies. 

Then there is a CO₂-Abgabe (carbon price/national emissions trading under the BEHG): a levy on CO₂ emissions from fuels. It's around 15 cents per liter.

Then there is the Erdölbevorratungsabgabe (oil stockpiling levy / EBV contribution), which is a small fee (around 0.27 cents per liter) that funds Germany’s strategic petroleum reserves. 

Having just one single tax?  It would go far in solving the escalation in prices....but no one really wants to do it. 

19 Sep 2026: Germany: 7 Stories

 1.  This EU-Canada 'associate' chatter?  Number of journalists came up and asked questions.  

What you can now say....factually....the EU does not have a official status as 'associate-member'.  They talked about it for Ukraine about a year ago, but that talk went nowhere.  They have not approached a single EU country to officially 'bless' such a status.  

So all that Thursday night chatter on Germany's ZDF (public TV) news?  BS?  Mostly the EU bluffing the story.  

There already being a trade status between the two?  Yeah....for eight-plus years, so that's nothing new.

It is kinda funny....they got hype for roughly 24 hours, and the hype sorta died-out.

2.  Deal done....US has protection status over Greenland.  No chance that China or Russia establishes a presence there.  

Danes fairly shocked (by my opinion)....no one ever thought they were at risk of anything (invasion or such).  Somehow....Trump in some crazy way....got a 'deal' (at zero cost).  

3.  Gas relief?  Merz got a 'deal'....the energy tax on gas/diesel is to be reduced by 14 cents per liter. If you include the VAT, this results in a tax reduction of 17 cents per liter.  

Enough?  As you imagine pricing right now?   Yes.  If the pricing goes up another 30-odd cents?  They'd have to revisit this situation....with more relief.

Starts 1 October, and ends at end of December.

Merz coalition also worked up.... a fuel price cap with the fuel industry. Some details left to square it away.  Starts 1 Jan 2027....at latest. 

Opposition?  Curiously, the Greens and Linke Party call the plan 'madness'....saying the oil companies are raking in profits. 

4.  Berlin police did a raid on a employee of the AfD Party's candidate in the city election (coming up shortly).  The police thought they had a illegal weapon.  Well....they were wrong.  But what they found were drugs (never telling what type) and Nazi-history crap (also avoiding details).

On the Nazi-era collectables....generally...most stuff like books, uniforms, and such...are legal to buy.  You'd need to portray the purchase as a history-buff thing, and avoid public displays of your 'stuff'.

 You can walk into flea-markets today and likely find items for sale.  The problem is....you have fake crap (made forty years after the war....sold as legit stuff).  Whether the police have legit 1930s/1940s stuff, or counterfeit stuff....unknown.  On the drugs....cocaine and forty-odd drugs would be illegal....weed/marijuana would be legal.  

Counterfeit and imported in?  Zoll guys are going to review what you bought, and you can figure several weeks of review....with 50-50 odds of them confiscating it. 

5.  Focus article....Denmark study done on university graduates....growing number are unable to find a job after graduation.

6.  Oktoberfest starts today....24 C (mild temp)....blue sky.  

7.  Three weeks ago....I got blitz-camera 'caught' (speeding ticket on the autobahn)....in the state of the Pfalz (not Hessen).  The car tag is registered to the wife.....the pic is me.  I don't argue....I was 18 kph over the limit (100).

Well.....the Pfalz sends the letter a week ago.  Normally...in Hessen....as long as you aren't over 30 kph (over the limit)....you just get a letter to pay the ticket.

The Pfalz sent this letter to the wife....to ask if she wants to deny the ticket.  She obviously said yeah....that was the husband (me).  She has to do this on-line....into some database.  So they asked around ten questions in the database.  She inputs all my personal data.

Six days pass, and yesterday....I get a letter from the Pfalz police....do I want to deny the violation?  Oddly, they don't put the violation cost (I figure around 65 Euro), or where to send the money.  Instead, they want me to admit what I've done...before we talk money. 

I asked the wife what happens if I do nothing....I got a 12-minute lecture on 'doing-the-right-thing'.  

Platform Control?

 Talk started up today....in Hessen....over a pilot-program.  They want to organize the Frankfurt train station in such a way....that you would NOT be able to access any of the twenty-odd platforms (arrival or leaving)...unless you had a ticket. 

Obviously, there would be AI....some scan capability....a 'arm-control'.

Several years ago....I was at Den Haag and Amsterdam....where they had such a system running.

Happening in 2027?  No one says that....just that they want to start a program, and Frankfurt would be the choice.

Are there people there....just wandering around the platforms (currently)?  No one says that.  If you asked me....there's probably around a hundred 'walkers' in the Frankfurt station....with no purpose or agenda (other than perhaps robbing you or selling drugs).

NBC Report: Downsizing of US Forces Europe?

 So the story goes....apparently from some Pentagon source, that Sec/War tasked EUCOM/Pentagon to study the idea of downsizing 25,000 troops (minimum), and reflecting a new future.

What you should take from this?

First, several rumors in the past week....Poland asking for a US base.  This may fit into the agenda, with either Lakenheath or Spang fighters....moving with some US Army folk to some joint-base in Poland.

I'm also likely to believe that headquarters staffs at EUCOM, Ramstein and Wiesbaden.....probably will downsize, and re-locate.

I'm less likely to believe that US Navy gives up it's bases in this plan.

Where this leads onto?  The SECWAR expects some report (menu-type) in November and the President approves this in January.  House/Senate will have some say.

Big deal?  This is what should have been done in the mid-1990s. The negative I can see....if Wiesbaden's installation shuts down....that's the end of commissary/BX privileges/use.   

Wasn't There Already A Trade 'Treaty' Between The EU And Canada

 Well....mostly forgotten....but back in 2016...it was 'signed' and made official in early 2017.  In the deal....99-precent of tariff stuff between the two....dissolved away.

Naturally, you'd ask....with the hype from yesterday....is there some new trade deal?  No.  For numbers....2025.....around 5.5-percent of Canada shipped out....went to EU customers. (Hint: that's about one-percent more than in 2024).

If you asked me over yesterday's hype being more of a 'show'?  Yeah, it got a lot of hype in Canada, and throughout Germany.  

If you asked a typical German what they buy from Canada?  Well....Canadian whisky and maple-flavored spirits, some Niagara icewine, premium seafood (lobster, scallops, certain fish), Canola oil, frozen potato products (McCain is well known, and my wife buys this monthly), and maple syrup.

Would the typical German buy 'more'?  Maybe if the Canadian dollar were lower and the whisky was 10-to-20 percent cheaper...yeah.  More maple syrup?  No (the wife buys three bottles per year and lectures me constantly about evil syrup.  

What Is The German 'Fake-O-Meter'?

Well....I heard the term this AM, and looked into it.

The word “Fake-O-Meter” is NOT a German official government name. It is the word created by the  German outlet NIUS (right-wing news establishment)....for a publicly funded research project called kuKI. 

What is kuKI?  kuKI (“Kulturalisierungssensible KI-Assistenz für eine desinformationsresiliente multilinguale Gesellschaft”).

It's a AI 'tool' for detecting and classifying disinformation....after fact-checking....with BS that comes in German, Russian or Turkish.

Gov't funded?  Federal Ministry for Research, Technology and Space (BMFTR) paid for it with 3.2 million Euro.

AI figures out the disinformation?  Yeah. 

I pondered upon this....AI creating fake BS....AI discovering fake BS.  You don't require a middle-man

Fake news AI learning?  I would imagine every hour....it's writing a 'lessons-learned' summary, and the fake news BS gets better.

But on the other side of this....people are now relying upon AI to tell them 'this-is-BS'.  They can't match the skills/wits of AI that easily.

What happens when the fake-o-meter says it's true (not BS) and hurts the gov't message/brand?  No one says much over that idea.  

18 Sep 2026: Germany: 12 Stories

1.  Brandenburg: ISIS terror guy arrested.  Had been to Bremen....scouting out 'targets'.

2.   Berlin Airport (BER)....police were called and arrested some passenger (Estonian)....for attempted manslaughter on a airport employee.  What the police say....the guy arrived late at a gate for boarding....was prevented from boarding, and goes into some massive anger.

3.  Sunday's outlook for Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election?

Neck-and-neck for SPD and AfD....both will be in 35-to-37 percent range.  CDU marginally holding at 6-percent.  

4.  Coach Jürgen Klopp has nominated 44 players for his first four matches as national coach. 

It was a odd news evening last night.....ARD 8 PM news led off....news number item ONE....Klopp highlights for 2.5 minutes.  9:45 PM news on ZDF....Klopp highlights....news item number FIFTEEN....last 2.5 minutes of the newscast.

For German sports enthusiasts.....it felt like Moses had come off the mountain with the tablets.

5.  German Chancellor Merz gave a talk yesterday (Thursday)....CDU Party event.

Basically said that no hospitals, care homes, construction sites, restaurants, or hotels in Germany would function without integrated immigrant workers.  

Correct.  Just for care-homes alone....the figure thrown around is 350,000 migrant workers.  In the hospitality industry....the gov't estimate is near 40-percent of the force required....are migrants.  I walked into a Burger King shop in 2025....where the staff on shift (6 employees) were all migrant women.  

6.  Poll done by YouGov....almost half of Germans in the poll....figure by 1 January 2027....Merz will not be Chancellor

Via news/social media....lot of hype since early spring (2026) on marginal accomplishments of Merz.  I'd give 75-percent of the blame on this....this partnership between the CDU-CSU and SPD....rest of the blame goes to expectations of the public that Merz was bringing massive expertise on finance and reforms to save jobs.

7.  WELT piece this AM....SPD Party state administrator...says that young people on social benefits....should NOT be allowed to leave/exit parent's house.....to be on their own (costing more social funding).

8.  Poll done by RTL-TV news.....eight out of ten eastern Germans....say democracy is NOT working.  Nationally (east and west)....it's four out of ten Germans suggesting democracy has 'crapped-out' (my words).

They aren't saying the fix or resolution....just that they were expecting something 'better'.

If you asked me....social/news media folks....over the past twenty-odd years...have hyped up some great hope/benefits of democracy (like a used Mercedes car)....and things haven't worked that well.

9.  PM of Poland....hypes potential Russian attack on European countries....suggesting a US base in Poland would be a 'sure-fix'.  

10.  N-TV piece this AM....Norwegian authorities have found a sunken Nazi submarine.  They are suggesting it's dangerous for the food chain, and want some type of action.  They didn't come out to say Germany needs to step-up but you get the feeling they want German involvement.

11. Lithuania has discovered a couple of tunnels...used for people-smuggling....from Belarus into Lithuania.

12.  ZDF news at 9:45 PM last night....probably spent a good eight minutes hyping up the partnership deal with the EU and Canada.

I paused over it.  EU's 'standard' for economic measures (for new membership)....the national budget deficit must stay at or below 3-percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP)....plus the public debt should not exceed 60-percent of GDP.  Well....currently....Canada's general government gross debt is approximately 113.5-percent of its Gross Domestic Product (GDP).  Yeah....it's a wreck.  Oddly, this part of the story was not explained by ZDF.

The plus-up for Canada?  There would be EU-entry deals for job-visas.  Currently, at least in most of eastern Canada....the unemployment rate is near 7-percent.  Those folks might find job opportunities in the EU.  I could easily see 10,000 Canadians by spring of 2027....employed in the Netherlands, Germany or Austria.  Most of them would even say the European health system is better than the Canadian system.

Germany: Authority To Shoot Down Drones Over German Bases?

 Is there legal authority in Germany to shoot down drones over German bases?  Well....yes.

There is now some legal authority for the Bundeswehr to shoot down drones over its own military bases, but it's carefully worded....it's not automatic or unlimited. 

On Bundeswehr property, soldiers can already use force under the UZwGBw (the law governing direct coercion by the armed forces) to protect troops, facilities, and operational readiness. 

The wording says the military may jam, divert, or as a last resort use weapons if milder options fail and proportionality is observed. 

A separate 2026 amendment to the Luftsicherheitsgesetz (Aviation Security Act), passed by the Bundestag in late February of 2026....and the Bundesrat in early March....says explicit last-resort shoot-down powers exist....IF police request assistance. 

If you read the wording....anytime that human life is threatened....or critical infrastructure is threatened....and no other means will work; the German Army can now authorize it without prior Interior Ministry approval.  

Frankfurt: Third Death By Malaria Reported

 Authorities say.....the individual lived in the Schwanheim district, about five km from the airport.

About a month ago....were the first two folks reported dead.  

Six infected...three dead at this point.

Bombs

 Around 4:20 AM....in Frankfurt.....detonations occurred at a café on Berger Straße and a shisha bar on Zeil.

This is the second round of bombs in the past week....mostly designed to damage structure (not to harm people).

Mafia-war?  Well....if you look at social media chatter....it goes that way.  

What The Greek Finance Minister Said

 Greek Finance Minister Kyriakos Pierrakakis....got into a analysis opinion of Germany's economical 'spiral'....urging Germany to pursue economic reforms.

I would imagine the German finance guys grumbled a good bit privately.

The Greek crisis was back in 2009, and it was a good harsh five or six years....before things got resolved. 

Chancellor's Ten-Point Plan Against Terrorism Released

 I pondered over the list today:

1.  Expand criminal law on the dissemination of propaganda materials of terrorist organizations.

    -- Basically, if you were a terror organization and pumped-out propaganda....there would be some German folks to collect it.    

2.  Impose harsher penalties for particularly dangerous bodily injuries (e.g., knife attacks). 

    -- You'd have to prove the point of terror being involved (like yelling Allah Akbar).  Minimum sentence presently is one year....for serious knifing...up to 13 years.  My humble guess is that they'd have to push the sentence up to 20.  

3.  Adjust youth criminal law in a targeted and timely manner.

    -- I'd question legality of this and if the Constitutional Court would agree.  

4.  Give greater weight to public security interests in decisions on probation.  

    -- Would require some agreement by the SPD.

5.  Improve information exchange between security authorities, the justice system and prisons.  

    -- You have to ask....why wasn't this done already ten years ago.

6.  Enable state police forces (not only federal agencies) to order the securing of telecommunications traffic data.  

    -- Still requires judge's consent.

7.  Create uniform standards for electronic ankle monitors (Fußfesseln) and preventive detention.

    -- Something that should have occurred ten to fifteen years ago.  

8.  Act more consistently against supporters and financiers of terror groups (including a new offence for collecting donations).  

    -- Probably the best idea from the ten.

9.  Strengthen prevention (including greater responsibility for digital platforms on extremist content, education and work in communities).  

10.  Make deradicalization programes more effective.

    -- How?  (Unexplained)

16 Sep 2026: Germany: 7Things

 1.  Gas price at noon in my village....E-10.....2.48 Euro.  Just guessing....in two weeks....bound to hit 2.68 Euro per liter.

2.  EU says they have a mechanism to make Canada a 'associate' member.  Whether it'll be a national vote or just a parliament vote....unknown.

3.  Culture Minister Weimer did a talk today....asking whether the public TV system in Germany is still needed in its current form. He wants to radically reduce ARD and sell ZDF.  Part of this relates to a cost factor....what it takes for both continue on.

Selling ZDF?  The TV folks there would go 'crazy'....probably to be downsized by half.  Positive side?  They have a decent TV movie production side, and have several gameshows that draw viewers. Who would buy them?  My humble guess is that RTL might have some ideas (plus the cash).  

4.  Stadthagen (NW Germany) a argument started up between several children over a ball escalated on Tuesday evening. Cops say 30 adults gathered for a brawl....five (at least) were wounded.

When police arrived....they went straight to pepper-spray to untangle the mess.

5.  I sat and watched a news piece last night....regional German school operation (gymnasium)....13-year old kids being taught some aspect of recognizing fake news.  Curious thing....at no point did they ask AI what was AI-created....they had to use their 'wits'.

6.  EU talking about a 'water-plan'....three parts I noted....fixing infrastructure leaks (nearly 25-percent of water is estimated to be lost in pipes)....getting some type of drought risk management up and running, and enhancing water security for industry and food production.  

7.  Natural gas reserves 'tanks' for Germany....as of the 16th....filled to 56-percent of capacity.  

'Streamers'?

 Last night, via ZDF (public German TV, Channel 2)....ran Frontal (news documentary show).  So the highlight...for roughly 10 minutes....was a piece about 'streamers'....the 'most-evil' folks on Earth (my wife was convinced of this by the end of the 'talk').

So....I needed a true explanation of 'streamers'.  This AM...I asked Grok (AI).  In Germany today, a Streamer (feminine: Streamerin) usually means a person who does a broadcast (live video) over the internet.  Typical platform used?  X/Twitter, YouTube, Kick, TikTok, etc. 

In most cases....they play some 'game', chat with somebody, cook, perform make-up attention, etc.

Paid?  Oh yeah....nobody does it for free.

So this Frontal episode was solely about AfD (the party) using 'influencers' or 'streamers'.  

At the conclusion....I wondered....the journalists only alerted on AfD....were the other parties using 'streamers' as well?

OH YEAH....AI then went to detail the environmentalists, the Greens, the BSW folks, and Linke Party.  SPD and CDU marginally 'helped'?  Yeah, that was the amusing part of the story...the two parties in desperate need of 'help'/votes....weren't using 'streamers'.  

Why leave these 'streamers' out of the story?  Unknown.

Fuel Chaos Brewing?

 Locally, for me, E-10 gas is sitting at 2.33 Euro per liter this AM.  Saudi hype....some shipments are not going to occur over the next month.....is worrying folks, and suggesting prices might get to 2.50....maybe even 2.70.

So....the Merz coalition is discussing eight ideas. Listed?  (I read these off a Focus business article....which I consider reliable):

VAT reduction : Lowers the gross price, but triggers high tax losses.

Reduction of energy tax: Relief is provided by a fixed amount per liter.  EU problem...there are minimum tax rates mandated.

Fuel discounts: They can take effect quickly, cost the state billions, and primarily benefit frequent drivers.  Four months ago....this was a temp-fix.

Fuel price cap: Limits the price immediately, but can cause market distortions and additional government costs.

Excess profit tax: Merz has already rejected this option. It could have skimmed off extraordinary profits from oil companies, but would not have directly lowered fuel prices.

Lowering the CO2 price would make fuels cheaper, but would weaken the incentive to protect the climate.

Direct aid: This could provide targeted relief to particularly affected households, but would need to be organized and financed.

Mobility allowance: Could support low-income commuters with their travel costs, but does not lower the price of fuel at the pump.

My guess?  In approximately ten days....a fix will be created....with two of these suggested ideas (of the eight)....going halfway on each.  Time limit?  Probably fixed to end in early-to-mid January 2027.

This being easily fixed if the war in Ukraine ended, and gas-trading were to settle back with the Russians?  Well....that comes up as a discussion topic daily.

How fast will the fuel escalation occur? I'm one to believe that E-10 could already be near 2.60 by the end of next week.  

CDU-SPD-CSU....Power Parties of the 1960s

 Up through the 1970s....the combined vote of the CDU-CSU and SPD Parties....usually ran around 85-percent. 

Today, I looked at the most recent poll...if you combine the three....it ranks to 31-percent.  Only three out of ten German voters would vote for one of the three.

Five Observations

 1.  More Malaria?

Well....two more cases near the Frankfurt Airport (near Schwanheim....about 5 km north of the Airport...closer to the river).

What the authorities are suggesting....if you have a fever of any type....go to the doctor and ask for a test.

2.  The Chancellor is discussing gas-price-relief.

Price for E-10 per liter?  Near 2.35 Euro.  There's some discussion that in the past day or two....Saudi Arabia has given notice....some deliveries will not be on time.  The hype?  You might see prices escalate up to 2.50 (this is public opinion not gov't opinion).  

3.  Court case in Bavaria going on....Police-woman raping a 14-year old girl.

I had to get 5 lines into the story...where they finally say....transwoman.

To convict the lady....they need the 14-year-old girl to make a court appearance....which is a 50-50 odds situation.

4.  'Super-cell' activity noted for Wed in the northern one-third of Germany.  Will be pretty harsh weather.

5.  Sabotage reports across the Netherlands this AM....30-odd locations (railway points).

EU Social Media Chatter

 The EU stood up today and says in some way....it wants to introduce a law on social media usage. Accounts should only be available from 15 years old.  

Age verification?  Mandatory for everyone. The costs of the regulation are to be borne by the operators.

I pondered upon this....they (the EU)....can't really say how age 15 was selected.

Then this cost issue....no, the cost will be handed down in various ways to the media companies themselves....you can call it a fee, or tax, or whatever....but the individuals will pay in the end.

The simplest 'fix'?  Treat it the same way as Lotto 'entry'.  Print out a card....write your ID card number and name....walk to the village post office, and have them verify you in the system....stamp it, and you get into the 'system'.  The post office would charge a Euro or two for the service.

Satisfying the EU?  I doubt it.

EU regulating this in some fashion, and having a cost of 15 to 20 Euro?  That's my bet.

Fresh Poll For Mecklenburg-Vorpommern State Election

 Likely to be last one before Sunday's election, from Forschungsgruppe Wahlen:

AfD likely to 'win' with 37 percent, and SPD in second place with 34 percent.

Greens at marginal 5 percent, CDU at 7 percent, and Linke at 10 percent.

If AfD can't form a coalition?  SPD gets the nod, and likely forms with Linke, Greens. 

15 Sep 2026: Germany: 7 Stories

 1.  Munich murder trial opening up.  Yemen guy came to Germany....brought kids (they weren't his apparently)....brought the legit wife.  Wife wanted to report the fraud.  Husband beheads the wife to prevent her from reporting.   Based on charges....if convicted of all of them....he'd remain in a German prison for remainder of his life.

2.  Some task force being created in the city of Berlin....to examine hefty rent prices.  They'd have some power to bring landlords into court....prosecute.  

3.  New YouGov national poll: AfD at 29-percent, CDU-CSU at 18-percent (down 2).

Greens up (1) to 16-percent.  SPD at 13-percent (up 1).

Linke at 10-percent (down 2). FDP at 5-percent and BSW at 4-percent (up 1).

4.  Offenbach city: 60-year old guy shot dead in front of grocery.  Witnesses noted some guy.....shots (plural) reportd....shooter escaped.

5.  WELT: Some rumor started up.....this weekend is another state election (Mecklenburg-Vorpommern).  Chancellor Merz will be among key top leadership of CDU-CSU.  As the story goes....if there are terrible numbers for the CDU in this state election....he'll ask for a vote of confidence to continue.  If you read polling for the state....best numbers are 6-to-7 percent.  Some folks believe it's possible that it'll be less than 5-percent (meaning no seats in the state assembly).  

6.  New E-Polo from VW.....under 25k Euro.....hot item.....already 30,000 orders in the system for it.  

7.  Furth: some local pool 'mystery'......pool authorities report up to around 100 pairs of flip-flops being stolen during the season.  

Sweden: Curious Deal

Sweden currently....has a government deal....if you are guest-migrant with a pre-2024 residency permit.....they will pay up to 600,000 SEK (roughly $60k)....per household....to voluntarily leave the country.  

Basically, they hope you will take the money, and leave....without a lot of drama.

So when they say household....they are suggesting the husband and wife...with the kids.

How many have taken the deal?  171 folks.

In the past month....the right-wing politicians got into the middle of this.  They want the deal expanded....to include regular Swedes.  The plan  would read.....you have decided Sweden is not the place for you....you've reviewed options, and chosen to leave.  You were born here.....you went to school here, and no longer feel the citizenship is worth keeping.

The  gov't folks are mostly shaking their heads....this exit deal was only intended for migrants.

My Thoughts On Wales, Northern Ireland and Scotland Exiting The UK?

 The story goes....tomorrow....the three will meet and organize one joint exit document and prepare the general public for what will likely come by the end of 2026.

Scotland opinion....mostly tied around 44-percent for/against....with around 10-percent undecided.  This would be the group of interest.

Wales? Latest poll shows only 26-percent in favor....so it's very unlikely to pass.

Northern Ireland? It's in the 35-percent range or a united Ireland (from a August poll).

So if you ask me....lot of chatter, but Scotland is the only one of the three that might exit (likely to re-enter the EU).

Story From Last Friday Evening

German police tell this story. 

This started up on a train between Neuss and Essen (NW Germany)....Friday evening.

So....a drunk Iraq 'teen' got tangled up in a fight against what was a couple of 16-year old kids (mostly girls).

Aggegedly....he groped one guy (non-German)...touching the guy via his buttocks/genitals.  Then he held some German teen girl....kissing her.  They got loose....got the train conductor involved.

The drunk Iraqi teen then reportedly approached several girls....where warnings by the conductor didn't really change the situation.

The train conductor led the students out of the car.

The crap continued on....with two German students punched (with his fist).  One is severely wounded.

So, finally.....police enter the train.  The drunk kid continued with his behavior problem.  He made a couple of swings at the police....offered more verbal threats.

I sat and counted up....charge-wise....there's probably 15-odd charges.

Problem?  He's 18....even convicted....he'll be treated as a juvenile...so figure by age 21....he'll probably be released from juvenile-prison. AfD gets a story like this and floats it by the public.....just another reason to get tough on deportation.

Had he been 21?  Adult-court....probably upwards to ten to twelve years of time.  

Frankfurt: Crime-Clan 'War'

 Last night....between 4 and 5 AM....two explosive events in Frankfurt and Offenbach areas.  One was a pub....other being a Kiosk. 

Police investigating....no suspects yet.

Part of a ongoing situation....several over the past couple of years.

Trump-Ireland-United Chatter

What currently keeps the island divided (Ireland and Northern Ireland)?

Well....the island was partitioned in 1921 (by the UK). The six counties that became Northern Ireland were chosen because they had a unionist (largely Protestant, British-identifying) majority at the time.

If you go and chat with folks....they all admit that a vote could change things, but the majority of Northern Irish aren't willing to go to a united status.

Part of this continuing trend....the fact that the UK has funding going to Northern Ireland yearly?  Yeah, that probably makes up a quarter of 'stay-as-is'.

Most of the Northern Irish folks....if you engage in a conversation....will say they identify more as British....than Irish.

Trump's talk?  Well....it'll get into the news and be discussed in bars/pubs....but mostly go nowhere.

Explaining The Purpose Of A Kiosk

 You find them mostly in medium and large-sized cities of Germany....mostly in urbanized 'blocks'.  Size-wise....mostly 4 meters by 4 meters (rarely larger)....around 172 sq ft.

They mostly sell sodas, beer, candy, newspapers, 'smokes', lotto-tickets and magazines.

Hours?  Most open around 7 AM, and closing will occur between 6 and 10 PM.

If you ask the guy/gal running it on profit....they mostly will admit it's enough to sustain a couple....maybe one or two part-time employees.

Folks will come from a block or two away.....to buy a beer....socialize....and swap gossip.  Rarely are there chairs or tables set up.  It's mostly a standing-situation.

I won't say it's a dying commerce....but if you counted up all the kiosk operations in Frankfurt in 1978....probably only half of them still exist today.

You stop at the window....making your request/order.  You never get invited inside.  There might be three or four 'lean-stands' where you can sip your beer and swap soccer opinions with an associate.  Occasionally, the chatter might get to politics, scandal, TV options tonight, 'Jungle-Camp' BS, some police drama in the city, or some tale of woe over a neighbor.

If The Coalition (CDU-CSU-SPD) Collapsed?

Well....it does not mean automatically a new election.  The CDU-CSU could linger as a minority government.  The Chancellor in this position....probably would ask for a vote of confidence (from the 630 seats) and hope that he got 315 minimum.  If that fails....the President would schedule a new election within 60 days....giving everyone a limited time to meet...get agendas lined up, and vote for a lead candidate.

If new elections are called for?  This would likely occur by early December.

Polling?  AfD leads most polls....around 28-percent.  The CDU-CSU folks are polling around 19-to-21 percent.  SPD?  Around 13-percent.

Greens?  14-to-16 percent.  BSW, at 4-to-5 percent (they'd have to pull 5-plus.....to get seats).  Linke Party, at 10-to-12 percent.  FDP currently at 4-percent...meaning they probably would not get seats.

If you asked me over the CDU-CSU candidate? Hendrik Wüst (CDU), Markus Söder (CSU), Thorsten Frei (CDU), Johann Wadephul (CDU), and Alexander Dobrindt (CSU) are the top five.  

Public problem to drag upon such a election?  Mostly economic woes, unemployment, public safety, and natural gas pricing.  

The unusual conditions presently?  Merz was supposed to be this super-fix for the economy, and nothing much has come of that 'brand'. Looking over the SPD and CDU-CSU 'promises'.....none of the two really can openly promise much over the economy.  

Outcome?  AfD would 'win' but be unable to form a coalition....meaning the weakened CDU forms with the Greens, SPD....to get a short-term coalition (probably no more than two years)....then another election. 

13 Sep 2026: Germany: 3 Stories

 1.  I dragged the portable AC unit back to the basement....for storage.  I counted up the days of use....18 total....most of any year since buying it five years ago.  

2.  BILD did a survey....only 14-percent of Germans believe Merz is the right-guy for the Chancellor's job.

I would add....they didn't ask 'who' should be replacing him.  

3.  Some talk going on....Labor Minister and SPD leader Bärbel Bas is rumored to be pushed-out, and some talk revolves around the SPD refusing this idea that the CDU is supporting....meaning they would exit the coalition.  The CDU-CSU would survive in this scenario....as a minority gov't (pretty rare thing).  

This leads folks to think that some collapse will occur, and a 'new' federal election might be in the works (without Merz)....in the next six months.  Crazy talk.....if you ask me.

12 Sep 2026: Germany: 4 Stories

 1.  Watched a piece this AM off N-TV....suggesting natural gas prices this winter in Germany....might escalate up to 20-percent.

2.  Some Linke Party MP in the Bundestag....did some heckling during a session....given a fine of 2,000 Euro.

3.  Berlin-City 'state-election' coming up....17 parties now registered and will be offered.

4.  Bavaria.  WELT has a article this AM.....out of every two murder suspects in the state....one is noted as a non-German.

Odd Political Situation

 On the 20th of September.....a Sunday....in the German state of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern....a state election will occur.

Polling current puts the CDU at 6-percent.

If the poll guys are wrong...if the CDU pulls 4.9-percent or less....it turns in a fairly big mess, which the journalists will spend the next month talking about this 'failure'.

Between the AfD and SPD?  They (by the polls) are pulling together around 66-percent.  In third-place are the Linke Party at 12-percent.

11 Sep 2026: Germany: 4 Stories

 1.  If something has already occurred (history-wise)....can some journalist use the term 'prophet' in describing what has already occurred?  I saw this use today in German print-media.

2. This SPD-candidate for Berlin (city) election.....under investigation.  Reading over the hype this AM....three separate issues.  Two of them....cases of accepting undue advantages.  

I'll admit...it's hurting the SPD numbers....with the election in the next 30 days.  If you felt bad about this....you'd still have the Greens or Linke Party to vote for.

Polling presently for this election?  SPD at 12-percent.  Linke Party leading with 21-percent.  CDU at 20-percent.  AfD at 18-precent, and Greens at 16-percent.

3. Premier-President of the Pfalz (state)....made a statement yesterday....that kids entering the German school system have to speak German.  Tests by the state will be mandated.  If you can't speak German upon entry.....it's simply a waste of time.  Rather odd how we reached this point.

4.  SPD pushing agenda....no more 'cash-only' situations.  You'd have to offer card-acceptability.  About twelve times a year....I come across a situation where the entry sign notes this.  The other 99-percent of situations....offer both cash/card.

Steinmeier's Term Ending?

 Frank-Walter Steinmeier’s second five-year term as President of Germany ends on 18 March 2027.   I looked it up this afternoon.

The Federal Convention is scheduled to elect his successor on 30 January 2027.

Intense chatter on 'candidates'?  Probably will start in November.  Only Bundestag members can vote.

How A State Coalition Talk Generally Goes (Saxony-Anhalt Situation)

 The two parties (probably no more than 5 or 6 from each party) gather in a conference room, with a scrip book.....they will have prioritized the important things and outlined what can be 'given-up'.

In the case of BSW (bit far to the left) and AfD (bit to the right)....they have both agreed that having border-control is a absolute.  Beyond that....nothing much has been learned yet.

At the end....if this works....they will have a list of 'posts' assigned to parties, and agree upon most of the hot-projects for the next 12 months.

BSW badly needs a public image....so I'm guessing they agree to a fair amount of what AfD wants, and come to three or four things....which have to be in their favor.

Will the coalition last five years?  Anyone's guess here.  BSW is in some hopes for 2027....next year' state elections....that they can show progress, and gain votes.  

Two odd groups in some agreement?  Yeah....it's fairly weird.  Added to this....both are pro-Russia to some degree, and anti-US to some degree.  

10 Sep 2026: Germany: 6 Stories

 1.  Group of CDU political folks (nat'l level) are taking a opposition point to Merz....on tax-chatter.  They are saying the new discussed plastic-tax is a no-go.  Also discussed....the new crypto-currency tax.  And the sugar tax.

These taxes mostly pushed by SPD Party to Merz?  Yeah.  Without full support of the CDU....these may not go into effect.

2.  Meerbusch (NW Germany, near Dusseldorf).....guy approaches police waving a knife around.  After several orders to drop it....they fire....killing the guy.

3.  11 AM today....national siren/alarm day....test throughout Germany occurs.

4.  BSW Party accepts fully....in Saxony-Anhalt....coalition talks with AfD Party.  

5.  SPD Party top candidate for the Berlin-City state-election coming up....raided by the police.  Some of political donation accusation.  Timing of this...makes one think it was a set-up.  

6.  This sub-station saboteur guy (arrested by the police)....was not employed (long-term) and apparently 'survived' off pocket-money that his mother gave him. 

Ukraine Story

German authorities came out today (Wed)....to say 'yes, we will help Ukraine identify young Ukrainian men in Germany....to return 'home' and fight for the fatherland'.

Basically....these are young men (20s, 30s and probably 40s)...who have a legit ID card (green-card) and probably getting some German gov't aid.

What are the numbers?  German data from 31 October 2025 (including pre-war residents), broken down as roughly 87,000 aged 18–24, 168,000 aged 25–45, and 73,000 aged 46–60.

Guys willing to return?  No.  I would imagine zero nature.

Guys in Germany who are not noted by the Germans?  No one says much....but I might go and suggest a minimum of 10,000 quietly residing.

The Problem With Consequences

 I worked in a Air Force office/shop at the end of my career....where the boss (a Major) was a risk-taker.  It was obvious from day one, and you could pretty much guarantee....if a situation came up requiring decision-making....there was a brief moment of concern and a marginal 'minute' pondering consequences....then he'd make the bold move.  After a while (a long while)....I got used to it, and started think and react like he did. 

What he gave me in terms of perceiving risks and consequences....was this idea that there had to be a 'gain' worth the risk taken.

I came later to the idea that the majority of people simply aren't capable of viewing consequences in their actions, or admitting they committed serious errors in their actions. 

When the 'revolutions' started up in the Middle East and refugees started to look for exit/entry signs....the Germans never got into the consequences mindset.  Even if you get to 2016....3 years into the migration issues....admitting the consequences was not possible.  

AfD being a consequence?  You could make that case today.  The people who vote for AfD?  Well....they used to be CDU-voters, SPD-voters, Linke-voters, FDP-voters, and even Green-voters.  

This is one of the odd things that public TV (ARD/ZDF) never really discuss much.

The layer of issues surrounding crime, assaults, and negative public safety numbers?  You could make the case that it's really not that bad.  Course, you'd be comparing it mostly against data existing around 2010/2012..not the 1990s or 1980s.

The 250,000 on the deportation list?  Yeah, that's a consequence.  

The PISA study on German educational numbers for 2025....looking crappy?  Yeah, that's a consequence.

Blaming someone or some party?  I don't think it's really possible at this point.  It achieves nothing.

Having a open and fair discussion over consequences?  I don't think that's really possible now.  You'd have to admit things, and agree to serious resolutions.  

Odd problem to have.

If Chancellor Merz Resigned Tomorrow? (What The Law Says)

 First, he'd give a letter to President Steinmeier, and he'd (Steinmeier) ask Merz to stay as a 'temp'.  He can decline this, and Steinmeier would then ask the SPD back-up Chancellor (Lars Klingbeil) to assume the job temporarily.

We move to step two then.

A new Chancellor must then be elected by the Bundestag under Article 63. The process has up to three rounds: The President proposes a candidate (one assumes a CDU-guy/gal), but he might shock folks by picking a non-party person. That person needs an absolute majority of all 630 Bundestag members (316 votes).

If that fails, the Bundestag has 14 days to elect someone with an absolute majority on its own.....meaning no suggestion by the President works.

If that also fails, a third ballot is held. A relative majority (most votes) is then enough. The President then decides whether to appoint that person (even if it produces a minority government) or dissolve the Bundestag and call snap elections.

Minority gov't?  It'd dampen 2027 state elections, and likely hurt both the CDU-CSU Party and the SPD Party.

Getting a SPD Chancellor out of this?  I'd give it better than 50-percent odds. Top guy?  Boris Pistorius (Defense Minister currently).  

Helpful for the AfD brand?  Some folks might argue that having Merz resign...is very helpful for the AfD brand.  

Steinmeier gone in January 2027?  Well....term ends, and there's folks planning nominees.....probably to have a Bundestag 'vote' by November.  CDU might be hoping that they get their person put into place, and a Merz-exit would have better conditions.  Could this secret CDU 'winner' put their own name up for the Chancellor job?  The law has conditions....to prevent that.

Any of this scenario being discussed currently...in the open?  Oddly....no.

Analysis of AfD 'Platform'

 Two days ago....AfD published a list of promises....to sell their brand nationally.  My humble view after each:

- Term limit for professional politicians. They will not be able to live off the State for more than eight years.

Getting all of the parties to agree to this...near zero.  If you asked working-class Germans....they might prioritize this...but it won't be a top-ten thing.

- Europe of sovereign states, or an exit if that is not possible.

Exiting the EU?  There might be 30-to-35 percent of people who will sit and listen to the idea...maybe bulk of them agreeing in some ways.  I remember the era prior to the 1990s, and will say....there's various positive things that the EU delivered.  

- End of the euro as a common currency.

Around a decade ago....you could ask and probably 10-percent of Germans felt the DM was a better deal than the Euro.  Today?  I'm not sure how people would see the idea.

- Total border control.

Requires a massive manpower situation....probably over 25,000 hirees.  Police have openly said....they would do the job on a temp-basis (like 6 to 12 months) but if it were permanent....you need a hired-up crew.  Budget for this?  Doesn't exist.

Priority among Germans?  Likely two-thirds of people support this idea.

- Asylum processed outside the EU.

Curious wording....you could not apply for asylum....unless you did it beyond the EU 'borders'.  You'd have to have a workable deportation program....something marginally working at present.  Sounds good on paper until you push for fixing deporation.

- Remigration of criminals and people without residence rights.

Public opinion....I believe 75-percent of Germans support the idea. 

- Tax cuts.

First, you'd have to have budget cuts.....where?

- Energy: nuclear energy, coal, repairs to Nord Stream, no more CO₂ tax, no more ban on combustion engines.

Seen popular in different ways by the public.  Fixing N-S....probably occurs....ONLY after the war ends.  As for nuke energy?  It's hyped as 'evil'....so you'd have to resolve this belief.  The ban on combustion engines?  It's killing the auto-industry.

I should mention here....Germany already has one of the highest grid cost rates of any EU country...presently.

- Pro-nationalist policy.

Might be supported by 40-percent of the pubic.  Half of the media would utter 'nazi' when discussed.

- Promotion of German culture, protection of the German language

Probably in conflict with one-third of German voters.  

- Expulsion of Muslims who reject the German legal system. No to sharia courts

If you explain Sharia....I doubt that more than 10-percent of Germans support some creation.  If you asked Syrian-Germans....more than half probably would say they'd really rather not have such a 'problem' existing.  

- Reinforcement of the police

Merkel hired 10,000 new state/federal police....right before Covid.  My question....that effort was difficult because of quality required for recruits.....where would you find another 10,000 to 15,000 additional folks for the job.  I agree....it's needed.

- Zero tolerance for foreign criminals and mafias.

I'd say they are already ten years too late.  Public would support this.  

New Poll: National Politics in Germany

I paused over this last night:

 AfD: 29 percent 

CDU/CSU: 19.5 percent (down a point)

Greens: 13.5 percent 

SPD: 12.5 percent (up a half-point)

Left Party: 10.5 percent

FDP: 4.5 percent

BSW: 4 percent (up a half-point)

It's not something that you can see as positive for the Merz 'crew'.  On the lefty-side?  Roughly 40-percent of the voting public currently....but highly divided.  (Comes from Focus)

Does German Public TV Deliver Child-Like News?

Well....yeah.

 ARD's takes it's nightly 8 PM news.."Tagesschau".....then translates it into "in einfacher Sprache" (basically 3rd-to-6th grade-level simple language).  

So you can imagine....someone 'drafted'/selected from the team....who has the 15-minute news piece, and spending probably two to three hours....working the wording/graphics around...to give to a 'new' resident of Germany....in simple language.

Yes...simple basic sentences....no fancy words.  The bars/graphs....explained like you were talking to a kid.  Then giving a kid-like description of details.

Could you download the actual word-text from the Tagesschau in your home-language, and get a 4-star translation (without the child-like narrative)?  Yeah.

Personally....I wish they'd do this with the German crime-show dramas, and have someone whittle the 90-minute crime-drama to 20 sentences....so the confusion was less over-all.

Why Putin Eyeballs Germany As A Target?

 Yesterday....Germany's Minister of Defense approved a new military aid package for Ukraine.  Includes PAC-2 Patriot intercepts (from their stock), AIM-9 missiles, and tens of thousands of long-range artillery shells.

Putin notes the transfers and probably just shakes his head...all of these German 'stockpiles' are absolutely a target in his mind.

That PISA Study

 PISA 2025 (released 8 September 2026)....concluded and it's pretty dismal.

German 15-year old kids....lowest scores since they started PISA in 2000.

Science, math and reading all down.

Blame?  What they generally say....the number of 'new' kids (the migrants) are dragging educational progress down.  Marginal interest in the subject matter....lack of respect for teachers....discipline lacking.

Q-and-A:

 1.  Is there anyway to really define 'far-left/far-right'?

No.

When one party says a platform goal is free-bus/rail travel....it really doesn't suggest far-left/far-right.  If you had a migration issue....saying deportation is necessary....it also doesn't suggest far-left/far-right.  

The German news media have played with the definition a good bit, and I'd say at this point....most folks can't conclude any definition worth talking about.

2.  Merz going away?

There are five state elections in 2027....most occur in April.  By the time you get to Niedersachsen in September....if the CDU has performed in a crappy fashion for the five....I might see some meeting where a discussion comes up (for both the SPD and CDU).....if the coalition can continue, or a fresh new election should occur.

2028 elections?  Presently....three coming (2 in the fall, one in the spring)....they will matter a good bit.

3.  The economy still problem one?

I'd go and suggest the economy and jobs rate as the top problem....with public safety and migration issues fitting into the top five issues facing the country.  Neither the SPD or CDU/CSU....seem to have any true fix for the economic issue.

4.  SPD overcome by the Greens?

That is a odd landscape....if you added up the Linke-SPD-Green voters....they make up around 38-to-40 percent of the nation presently.

5.  Is there crime-clan warfare going on in Germany?

Not on front-page news....but if you glance through newspapers weekly....various clans are in competition with each other, and hit-jobs are being conducted.  Police are more or less....simply watching the development unfold.

I asked AI to review data....how many crime families exist at the national level (across states).....total of 36 noted.

6.  Is there any indication that the CDU or SPD have reviewed the 'get-elected' strategy of the AfD Party?

Well....no.  If either had the 'get-elected' strategy in their mind....they would have overcome this voting trend.  

At some point....Merkel saw the gimmick, and countered AfD....by agreeing to hire 10,000 MORE state/federal police (over a 3 year period).  That briefly gave the SPD and CDU folks 'time'. It's been 7 years since that idea.

German Police Search Concluded (Successful)

 Sometime late this AM....German cops at a traffic check-point...arrested the man suspected of a series of sabotage attacks on the country’s power grid. 

Location?  Weisweiler.

Carrying explosives when arrested?  Well....yeah.  That's probably another extra charge.

Term used by the state Interior Minister about the guy?  'Misguided'.  Fair amount of belief that the judge probably will ask for a 30-day mental exam period.  I'd go and suggest 50-50 odds that he'll never get to a court, and likely be sent 'off' to a mental facility.

What his agenda basically came down to?  Mostly the 'evils' of high-voltage lines and substations serving lignite (brown-coal) plants.  You know...the fossil-fuel 'evils'.  If the lines had nothing to do with brown-coal?  They weren't targeted.  

Ever letting the guy out?  I'm of the mind that he's pretty set on the evils of fossil-fuel, and he's likely a candidate for a lifetime in some jail or mental-facility.

Finally....a positive note....German cops getting their guy.

Military Exercise

 At some point in 2027....the UK will conduct a unique military exercise...where the enemy is likely to be identified as Russia, and a key-part of the exercise...is to recall veterans.

 Basically....they will draw upon a 95,000-strong strategic reserve....getting the 'gang' in....dressed-up...equipped, and deployed 'somewhere'.

Usual?  Some say such a exercise hasn't been done in two or three decades.

Russian reaction?  No one has said much yet.

TB Story

 Roughly 125 years ago....about a mile up the road from my German village....they (the state) built a tuberculosis recovery hospital.  

This operated as such...until the early 1980s....when the state determined that they had 'control', and dumping a guy/gal off at a facility like this....was no longer necessary.

The selling point of this facility?  It was on a hillside....with a 6-mile wooded trail.  So as folks recovered....they were kinda 'directed'....to take a daily walk....to the end (where a rest-stop was located) and back.

What the center turned into after the 1980s?  Well...a business-retreat hotel....where you'd reserve rooms and a conference center...to have 'talks'.

Who worked in the facility from the 1900s to 1984?  Mostly folks from the village.

Banning Talk

Public statement made this AM....NRW Minister President Wüst says that he wants to assemble a "working group" to examine the idea of a AfD Party ban.

Three observations.

First,  Wüst is the guy figured to come after Merz as the CDU Party Chancellor candidate...if you were wondering.

It's kind of a short list....maybe four characters with the skills/talents....for the party...to fit the job.

Second, if you remove a party that has the support of 30-percent of national voting group....I would imagine that group will not participate in the democracy for a long while.  

Third, if I were supportive of the AfD, and seeing the party banned....I'd assume that resolving the 'crime-drama' going on....is not that important, and that whatever issues exist over migration....will not be openly discussed.  There's not much of a reason to play 'voting-matters' at that point. 

Will some ban discussion now occur?  Would you waste more time on that, or actually ask why the existing parties can't discuss what makes AfD 'tick'?

For some reason, I see the trending 'downward' for the CDU....as maybe a bad sign of where national politics is going.  If you split the CDU and CSU apart....some polls say around 14-to-16 percent of national votes....go toward the CDU....which is a problem.

Oddly, no polls ask the reasons for AfD support.

Simplifying The Saxony-Anhalt Election And AfD?

 Both the CDU and SPD had a full decade to overcome the migrant problems created, and re-develop the police situation for the evolution of crime that occurred.  What you can generally say....they (the two parties) weren't prepared for this, and didn't really have the enthusiasm for massive change.

AfD?  They talk a lot, but have not shown results yet (not really able to lead in any state).

So Saxony-Anhalt is the 'test-model'....if AfD is able to form a coalition and run one single state (of the 16).

If you asked me currently?  I'd say the economy rates as a bigger issue....than migration.  Oddly, neither the SPD or CDU have any serious resolution for that problem.

This 'saving-democracy' gimmick?  I might go and suggest that half of German society see this as something that old DDR used to sell as propaganda to the public.

Public TV having lost appeal to a fair number of Germans?  There's that odd issue brewing.  The news stuff....public forums.....'experts'....have less value today (compared to a decade ago).

8 Sep 2026: Germany: 9 Stories

 1.  This vote last Sunday in Saxony-Anhalt (the German state)....seems to have 'confusing' numbers....there's a recount going on in several districts, and some suggestion of 'shenanigans'.  I brought this up to the German wife....she merely said 'Putin's work'.....with the belief that maybe KGB folks got involved.  I'm not saying it carries any weight....just that average Germans tend to believe this.  

Odd statistic did show.....in rural areas of the state....50.4 percent of folks voted AfD....less so in urbanized zones

Last night?  Another news blitz from ARD/ZDF (the public TV folks)....counting Sunday and Monday.....probably 15 hours from both trying to micro-analyze the election.  I'd suggest by Sunday evening...most Germans were wrapped-up and not requiring more anti-AfD chatter.

2.  Platform going ahead for AfD nationally?

- term limit for professional politicians. They will not be able to live off the State for more than eight years

- Europe of sovereign states, or an exit if that is not possible

- end of the euro as a common currency

- total border control

- asylum processed outside the EU

- remigration of criminals and people without residence rights

- tax cuts

- energy: nuclear energy, coal, repairs to Nord Stream, no more CO₂ tax, no more ban on combustion engines

- pro-nationalist policy

- promotion of German culture, protection of the German language

- expulsion of Muslims who reject the German legal system. No to sharia courts

- reinforcement of the police

- zero tolerance for foreign criminals and mafias.

- end of hate crimes. Maximum freedom of expression.

This came from Weidel herself.....most would appeal to common-working-class folks.  The 'zero-tolerance' for mafias....would require a massive effort/huge capital investment in police/LE.

3.  Viewing a AfD/BSW coalition in Saxony-Anhalt....the odd thing which they agree upon....normalizing relations with Russia.

4.  This saboteur guy responsible for sub-station attacks?  Still on the run.

Relatives have openly said....the guy is extremely bright (high-IQ), but also has mental issues. I would imagine when they do find/capture him....judge will order a mental exam, and he ends up in some facility.

5.  VW selling one of its plants....is to be a weapons factory for Israel’s biggest missile-maker.

Osnabrück factory in north-west Germany expected to end vehicle production next year.

6.  This hype of conflict between Russia and Germany....mostly BS.  Germany is funding roughly 90-million Euro worth of Ukrainian-made Shrike first-person-view attack drones from SkyFall.  Yeah, that is peeving off the Russians big-time and I would imagine some serious reaction to sabotage power stations.

7.  Some statistic shown in AM news.....Germans in need of psychotherapy....not enough therapists for the job.....only 15-percent of Germans get help.

8.  Some poll done in Berlin (city)....young people feel poorly represented.  Three out of four.

9.  My local state....Hessen....is having a 'truth-commission' over Covid.  Basically, if something was a failed policy....they want to admit it and never repeat it again.  It's mostly over state policies in the period....not the medical treatment or vax business.

This Berlin 'Hack'?

 Well...to simplify the story....Berlin city authorities had this massive database with all residents, their names, addresses, billing information, etc.  It got hacked.....the crowd wanted to be paid.  Berlin refused.  The deadline came and went this past week.

If you were a resident....you can figure that over the next couple of years....unless you take active measures....some group is going to attempt to use your info in some way.

Around 20 years ago....I worked for a US company that had a hack, and for a year or two....they had a service provided for us....limited in nature....for such problems.  It was free.  Far as I know....no one ever attempted to use the data.

Folks affected?  Over a million Berliners.

Observations Over The Saxony-Anhalt Election

 First, fairly dramatic 'tone' from ZDF and ARD (the two public TV networks) last night.  Both had spent the whole last month on theme of the 'end-of-democracy' if AfD won.

Second, numbers-wise....AfD to run the state government....now requires a coalition. Well...the BSW Party secured a 5-percent situation....thus giving them 4 seats of the 83, and they have expressed a willing nature to partner-up.

BSW considered far-left?  Yeah.  AfD considered far-right?  Yeah.  So it's a situation which makes you think the labels given by the news media....might not fit as designed.

Will there be a AfD/BSW coalition?  I'd give it 50-50 odds....at least they will talk.

Third, polling?  I thought in the end....the polls done in the final two weeks were fairly accurate.

Fourth, a long-term problem now for the CDU Party (Merz and company)?  I'd suggest that they look fairly weak.

Fifth, why didn't the messaging of ARD/ZDF work to convince voters to oppose AfD?  I would suggest that somewhere in the range of 50-percent of residents of the state....don't watch public TV....at all.  So they missed the messaging, and only the viewership got the massive dose of anti-AfD.  Kinda funny in a way.

Sixth, now you have to wonder...if the AfD/BSW team is in place.....at the state level....can AfD resolve the migration crisis?  My view?  I think there's in the range of 4,770 'guests' in S-A....who are on a deportation list (numbers reported at end of 2025).  I suspect of this group....all will be getting a letter in 60-to-90 days....with a end-to-benefits situation (probably 1 January 2027 is my guess), and giving some impression that you'd best leave the state (likely inviting them to move to one of the remaining 15 states of Germany).  I also suspect a rule or two will be added...once you commit a crime as a 'guest'.....you automatically get a deport-ASAP order.  What this will attract as attention....other states will see the focus and probably copy some of the rules.  I don't see a massive get-the-foreigners out as being necessary....if you had a job and were paying taxes.

Seventh, it's just odd how the election 'brand' came down to 'saving-democracy', and no one really talking much over crime statistics, deportation woes, or crime clans/gangs.  The AfD's forty-plus-percent were pretty locked onto democracy being part of safety.  They didn't see either the SPD or CDU as bringing change to public safety.

Finally, to be honest....if you end up with a CDU-SPD-Greens-Linke-BSW coalition....it'll end up being weak and marginally effective. It hurts Merz in various ways.  If I were the CDU in this state....I'd pretend to make an effort, and 30 days later....say a coalition is not possible....making another state election by the end of November likely.

Next state election?  Thirteen days now....Mecklenburg-Vorpommern.  Last poll....a week ago...shows AfD at 35-percent....with the SPD at 32-percent.  CDU at 8-percent.  There might be a slight boost for AfD over two weeks...but I don't see them going past 38-percent.  So the SPD will get the nod to form a gov't after AfD fails.  If the CDU gets less than 5-percent?  There would be a massive negative trend, and be a major national problem.

At least the saving-democracy BS lessens for a while now. 

Saxony-Anhalt State Election Results

AfD: 44.5-percent.

CDU: 18.5-percent

SPD: 8.2-percent

Linke: 9.4-percent

Greens: 8.9-percent

BSW: 5-percent

Summing up the election (1.7-million potential voters in the state).  Presently, AfD would get 39 seats of the 83 total....requiring a coalition.

BSW?  Well....they have hinted of some cooperation deal, and would get 5 seats....so in a wild scenario.....you could have the AfD with BSW....running the state gov't.  If final numbers put BSW at 4.9 percent....NO seats.

CDU?  Well....major loss in numbers and it's going to be discussed a good bit.

If this goes to a AfD/BSW gov't?  One of the big topics will be public TV, and if the coalition tells the public TV folks....a end-date is approaching.  

Polls being accurate from a week ago?  I'd say they were about as close as reality.  BSW might be the only shocker.

All of the hype for TV/media....to vote against AfD?  Failed, and there probably is going to be a long discussion how people really closed off that 'mouth-piece'.

Defense Hot Topic?

If you read the BILD am Sonntag today....there's a fairly strong suggestion that Germany is planning a number of projects to bulk-up on defenses against drone attacks, cyber issues and sabotage.

Fear?  If you've watched ARD or ZDF public TV over the past month....almost every night....there's some big focus (in the first three or four minutes of the broadcast)...where there's trouble brewing, and stability is threatened.

I do agree...some of this is Russian-invented....some being a crazed German-environmentalist...some leading to hackers of a unknown 'land'.

This power-station stuff?  I think this worries folks the most.  Some nutcase could target a sub-station or two, and you'd discover that two or three days of down-time is to be expected.  It's not something that most Germans can handle. 

Fed funds laying around for investment purposes over this?  No....not really.  They'd have to find some project to cut on, or add more taxes.

This Hunt For The Sabotage Guy?

 Police 'think' they have a defined location for the power-sub-station sabotage guy.  Hambach Forest...NE of Aachen (about 20 km away).  I'd define the woods area....about 20 by 20 km.

No vehicle.  

This a big deal?  On a man-hunt scale....1-to-10....it's probably near a '9'.

Two Local (Wiesbaden) Projects Hyped-Up

 This past week....city hall folks (the various parties that run things) started talking about two things....one supported by the CDU and lesser parties....mostly opposed by the SPD.

So....project one....instead of a tram 'build'....they are now open to the idea of a monorail....which would run from the Ostfeld (new suburb near the Army Airfield) to the train-station.  

Project two?  The federal police folks want to establish a 'central-presence' (figured to be 5,000 jobs scattered around city presently in several locations).  Location of this project?  In the Ostfeld 'shadow'. 

The monorail?  It's mostly opposed because it doesn't tie into the current network and would be a oddity (as spoken by the SPD folks).  Cities in Germany with such?  Wuppertal, Dortmund, Düsseldorf, and Dresden.  Yeah....there's only a couple.  

Why go this path?  You can basically use the four-lane road leading from near the Army Airfield region of Ostfeld, to the mid-town....probably with six stops. Disrupting traffic while under construction?  That's probably a minor problem.  

If you were selling me on this monorail idea....I'd probably have three routes around the city. 

Weather Chatter Came Up This Week

It's interesting....some older Germans brought up the comparison of 2026 (heat-wave summer, drought, etc) and 1976 (known as the 'century-summer' (Jahrhundertsommer).

Cause of both?  The Jet Stream. This circulation pattern is known as the Omega Blocking Pattern. Basically, the area between Spain and Germany....got blocked....while Eastern Europe was cold. 

A single year, and likely not to repeat again (for at least a decade)?  Yeah.

Worth buying a 3,500 Euro AC-unit?  No.

Germans remembering 1976?  Very unlikely.

When I arrived in January 1978....a couple of the Germans in the shop conversed over 1976.  Older guys remembered a period like that in the 1950s....but noted it was NOT normal summer weather.

6 Sep 2026: Germany: 4 Stories

 1.  Sub-station sabotage guy?  Still on the run?  Yeah.

Police putting out photos....mid-40s guy.  No doubt with the cops....he's responsible for attempted 'hits' on two sub-stations.  Nothing to do with Putin's thugs, Nazis, or far-right-wing.

2.  Saxony-Anhalt election underway this AM.  Zero doubt that AfD Party will place near 40-percent....but not enough to run state gov't (no one will form a coalition with them).  The odd thing....this forces the CDU into a leadership role with a coalition.....with the partner of the Linke Party (far-left).  Fair number of CDU-voters will be shaking their heads. 

If you asked me over hurting the CDU 'image' nationally....this election/results....aren't that positive. 

3.  SPD Party wants 'solutions' to prevent closure of four VW factories.....not much to offer.

4.  Those two suspects for the arson attack in Munich?  Caught.....detained.

Saturday Adventure

Yesterday....the wife had a adventure day planned....Segway 'tour'.  Eastern side of Frankfurt....farm country.  

Google maps said it was 45 minutes away....I allocated another 15 minutes...off we went  (10 AM).

Well...by the time you add up autobahn construction/detours (at least five projects)...it took near 75 minutes.....barely getting there in time.  

You start to add up all the street renovations around Wiesbaden, and the bridges under 'work'....there's probably in my region....around sixteen different things that influence traffic and cause 'rage' among drivers.

Yeah, I'll admit.....they need work urgently.

The Segway tour?  Actually fairly interesting (note: Segway halted sales around six years ago).  Nearly three hours of driving around a farming community. 

Corn?  Well....one had a chance to observe a failed crop (no higher than your waist).....massive drought for the summer of 2026.   

Gas Cars Remain?

 Up until this past week....the EU had been set to ban combustion engines....by 2035.

Well....Germany, Italy, Poland and the Czech Republic...fought hard, and it appears that the ban....will not occur.

The change?  The EU will shift to emissions reduction targets. Meaning, engines built today can still be built and sold.

Job losses still in play?  Well....yeah.  A lot spent on e-car development, and the bulk of Germans aren't that eager to buy into it.

Two Odd Things

 Yesterday....the wife and I went into Wiesbaden....to a new grocery on the SE part of town....with a underground parking situation.

Some sign with ultra-small fine-print.....then we entered the underground parking area.  So we stepped out of the car, and read the sign (close-up).

Well...it basically says a camera read your plate upon entry....you need to pay 3 Euro to exit, or buy something at the grocery to get a scan-type coupon (making it free).  If you drive out without either....you get a legal form in the mail for 45 Euro (fine) by this company monitoring things.

A hassle?  If you were a older German....you might miss the sign and get this warning letter. 

The odds of me ever going back?  Near one-percent.

Second story?  Well....the store had premium-coffee in a locked-up case.  

I pondered this....all these years in Germany and never having seen a lock-up situation for premium coffee.  If you needed some?  You'd have to chat with the manager, and he'd get you a 'bag'.

Substation Attacks?

 Over the past several days in Germany....there have been repeated acts of sabotage against electrical substations across the country.

Well....this AM (Friday)....another attempt....in Lower Saxony.

So as of noon....cops have an idea of who is involved (NOT Putin or his thugs).....appears to be German citizen.....militant climate activist.

His big deal?  Well....he wants to fight fossil fuels.  Yes....fossil fuels.

Nutcase-level?  I would suggest that some type of mental review will probably occur...he might avoid charges/jail...by establishing his mental control is 'lacking'.  

Yeah....oddball case, and will get dragged around to be discussed a good bit. 

This leading back to mental stability (lack of) in a group of environmentalists?  It's hard to say a number but it's painfully obvious that people take climate control to a level of some Marvel-movie adventure.

Germany And The Putin-Problem

This week....if you follow ARD/ZDF (public TV in Germany).....there's mostly hype over Russia saying Germany is near to "destroying" all political and economic relationships with Putin's Russia.

There was a unique political relationship between West Germany and the Soviet Union....coming out of the 1960s....mostly between the SPD leadership, and the necessity for 'cheap' natural gas/oil.  This drove the economic relationship.  

Adding to this....the bulk of economic-power that Germans often talk about....is related to the flow of natural gas and oil.  The Soviets, and later....the Russians....built a great middle-class level.  The Ukraine-war?  It basically destroyed the business model....for both Russia (Putin) and Germany (for both the SPD and CDU).

Presently, if the war were to end....Germany and Russia would both likely be back to natural gas 'trading', and a economic recovery for both would occur.  If we linger another two or three years, in some war without value?  I'd suggest both would find economical recovery fairly difficult.

Russia's economic standing?  Pretty close to between Brazil and Italy.

Is There A German Population Crisis Brewing?

 Well....if you bundle up the issues....then yes.

For 2025....Germany’s population was 83,467,117 (about 83.5 million).

Decline?  Yeah....roughly 110,000 people, or 0.1-percent (over 2024).

Producing kids?  The rate is now at 1.32 per female.

Oddly....if you break it down....German women are fairly close to 1.2, while non-German women are near 1.78.

Blame?  More German women prioritize jobs/income over having kids.

Some Germans (mostly women) are concerned over climate change....feeling lesser populations are a plus.

Where all of this leads onto?  If you do a spread sheet and figure numbers for 2046....it's probably a population of 77-million, and continuing onto 70-million by 2066.  

German industry/commerce set for trouble?  Well....if VW and the car companies continue to downsize....you don't need to worry about a manpower shortage.

Did I mention that 288,000 Germans exited/left the country in 2025, and a minimum of 250k probably will leave in 2026?  Most wanted better salary levels, lower taxes, and more opportunities.

In some odd way....the California-strategy of downsizing....has been recreated here in Germany, and been fairly successful.  

Housing Chatter

I sat last night watching ARD (public TV) and a news segment on a housing 'crisis'.

So....the basic story....the German Tenants' Association got onto the housing market crisis.

In their mind....Germany is around 1.4 million apartments/homes 'short'.  So this problem leads to a welfare state problem.  To fix it?  They want the German federal gov't to build more units, and have some type of rent-brakes.

I've sat and reviewed over the past decade.  It's an odd problem.

Germany (in the old West Germany days....before 1990)....had a fair amount of city/state-owned apartment buildings.....with set rents.  In the 1980s....the city governments got a bit worried....most of the units were reaching 30-to-50 years old and required renovation.  None of them were making enough to clearly cover the cost of renovation.

The federal response?  They'd sell the units/buildings to a commercial company....use profits to cover some renovation and get out of city-run social housing.

What they didn't really expect.....the commercial operations did renovate housing....but came up to charge a fair amount of increase on rent.  In some cases....it pushed renters out of highly urbanized regions (Bremen, Frankfurt, Munich and so-on).

What these associations want.....is a re-creation of social housing, and limited rents....meaning the income level for the city/state....would not be enough to cover renovation in 20-to-30 years.  

Added to this 'burden'....it is apparent that plenty of housing exists....if you consider all of the country, but in the urbanized zone (the cities of 200k or more)....the draw of public interest to live there....instead of the rural areas....is another issue by itself.

It is a problem....but the solutions simply lay a path for bigger problems.

That German Sugar Tax

 This week....I asked Grok (AI) to assemble the data on the German sugar-tax deal (still in draft form) and figure the per-person cost.

So....if you kept drinking your average amount of soda....at the average end....you'd have a yearly cost of 30-to-36 Euro.  But then Grok said....you pay the sugar tax prior to the VAT....so the sugar tax-plus-VAT is around 35 to 43 Euro (per person).

But then Grok said....suppose you drink lesser sugar items (like ice tea or lemonade).....then your yearly cost is around 20 to 35 Euro.

Family of four?  Still consuming sugar drinks?  Figure in the 120 Euro range.

Enough to force a change of habit?  I pondered upon this.  With all the hyped-up cigarette taxation....there's virtually no data to suggest that people quit or lessened because of the taxes.  Some data suggests that people went to rolling their smokes (thus saving money) or crossing the border into Luxembourg to buy lesser taxed smokes.  I might go and suggest fewer than 5-percent of society cut sugar consumption.

What might happen?  In three years....new coalition....new tax strategy....perhaps doubling of the sugar tax.

3 Sep 2026: Germany: 5 Stories

 1.  VW cost story....BILD did a comparison story over cost.  VW-to-build-a-car per hour?  74 Euro.

To run the factory (electrical, cooling, heat, etc)....VW has  drill around 4,850 Euro of each car to this detail.  

In simple terms....it makes little sense to continue making VW's in Germany...when you have thirty-odd countries with a lesser cost situation for man-hours, electrical, or natural gas.

Odds of VW being sold-off?  People would have laughed over this idea ten years ago....I'd say presently (within the next 2 years)....I'd give it a 25-percent chance of 'someone' (probably a Chinese company) buying them (to include Audi).

2.  Two Bulgarians arrested in Munich area....state-police of Germany involved.  Accused of arson attack on construction site....was to be for arms industry company.  Lot of questions coming out of this.

3.  German authorities 'hinting' that they may provide targeting 'advice' to Ukrainians....on where to hit Russia.

On my digging deeper into a conflict index (1-to-10).....this is a '8'.

4.  Curious saga coming up in Koln.  There's a something called the Coesfelder Liste (Coesfeld List).  It was started back in 2024....being a list of people legally required to leave Germany.

So, the way this started....late November 2024, the Zentrale Ausländerbehörde (the authority over foreigners) in the city of Coesfeld....sent out a list to cities of the state (NRW). 

Roughly 1,200 folks....they were vollziehbar ausreisepflichtig (meaning they were subject to enforceable deportation).  Various countries from the Balkan states and Albania/North Macedonia.

The state office offered to obtain replacement travel documents so the people could be deported more easily. 

The Koln office....didn't accept the offer....they more or less....lingered.

So....about a month ago...this list became public knowledge....with a Koln group (police say this part)....of 152 of the 471 people mentioned....linked to 568 offenses since November 2024.

Koln just innocently looking the 'other-way'?  Well....locals seem to have the view....someone either got blackmailed, influenced or bribed.

Forced prosecution efforts now?  Just from the talk....I'd say for remainder of 2026, and most of 2027....there's some intense legal stuff to occur.  

My humble view?  If you dug into all sixteen states....you'd probably view several more lists.

4.  Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election poll?  Election in roughly 2 weeks.

AfD at 35-percent, with SPD closely at 32-percent.

CDU at 8-percent, Greens at 5-percent, and Linke at 11-percent.

While AfD likely wins....they will be unable to form a coalition.  SPD?  Presently....they probably can form a coalition with the Linke and Greens.

End-result....roughly one-third of Mecklenburg public rates the migration woes as a big deal, and there's not likely to be much 'resolving' over the next five years.  I'd say in 2031...AfD will probably have 40-to-45 percent on polls.

5.  4 August drone attempted attack at Leipzig Airport on a couple of planes?  Well....authorities have been busy.

Intended target was a AN-124 cargo plane.

Around 7:30 that evening (still sunlight)....police say drone was sent to strike a wing near the fuel tanks....oddly....the charge separated on impact and did NOT detonate.  Some time passed....a bus driver later found the device on the ground, and 'stomped' upon it.

DNA from the drones?  Well....fantastic amount of work....led to two suspects:

First guy....a Russian-born man holding a Latvian passport.  He's connected in some way to Russian intelligence.  He entered Germany in late July via Berlin Brandenburg Airport...rented a car, and simply drove over to Leipzig.  He stayed around for a day or two....then left Germany.

Second guy.....A Belarusian citizen who also holds a Russian passport. He had arrest records in Lithuania and Finland. He entered the Schengen region on an Italian tourist visa issued in Minsk in late April.  He also has departed the country.

On the attempt?  I don't think either guy has much background on drones....seems like they easily bungled this up, and the airport being extremely lucky.

Problem now?  Well....Germans now realize how easy this drone-warfare might go, and there's serious worries ahead.

Terror Acts?

 Two suspected sabotage incidents now reported.  Occurring at high-voltage substations on opposite sides of Germany.

First one....1 Sep....2nd one today....roughly 12-to-15 hours apart.

What the police say?   It would appear as some type of ground-launched homemade pyrotechnic projectiles.....stuff you'd build in the garage.

First one....Turnow-Preilack substation in Brandenburg.  Second one....Amprion-operated substation in Bergheim/Rheidt (Rommerskirchen area (Koln, North Rhine-Westphalia).

Yeah....it's hyped up the national authorities....suggesting it's Russians behind it.  

Failing in both attempts to take down the stations?  Yeah....that is a factor.

Any proof of the Russians?  No.

Based on the description....it's stuff that a 16-year old smart kid could assemble.