The Chatter Of Raising The German Retirement Age

Rather than making this a 10-minute discussion....lets just cut to the basic isssue.

German law now.....says retirement occurs at age 67 (where you get full pension).

The problems (2)?

First....the pension program is not fully funded.

Second....commerce seems convinced that there are labor shortages approaching.

The pitch? The gov't would like to eventually raise the retirement age to 70....by year 2092.

It's hard to find any Germans (working-class) who buy into this.  Most want to retire around age 62/63....most will tell you that their company frowns on employees over age 60 currently....most will tell you that even retiring at 67 currently---seems to get you a marginal pension not worth talking about.  Then you bring up the 2092 chatter, and they start laughing.

If you wonder why no one takes politicians serious.....this is a big reason.

Was The Refugee Crisis Of 2013-2017 Germany....The First Such Crisis?

 Well.....NO.  There's a little funny story here, which I'll tell in a brief way.

Back around 1984-1986.... there's something that we'll call the Central Operational Process (ZOV)....run by the East German (DDR) Stasi (secret-police).

Over a two-year period....the DDR arranged for about 150,000 asylum seekers (several 3rd  world areas) to be brought into East Germany....as a political weapon.

Once on the ground....the 'crew' would be brought to Schönefeld by bus....going  from the Friedrichstraße station without passport control....then walked over  into West Berlin.

Oddly....150,000 were more than enough (instead of 2-million in the 2013 to 2017 era....to tie up the West German foreign nationals' offices...with temp-housing a major problem, and added social costs.

Yes....there were debates between the CDU-CSU and SPD.

Oddly, the creation of the Republican Party occurred....same look and feel as the AfD Party today.

How the Kohl/Schaüble coalition handled this?  It went mostly in a failed way....talking to DDR, and offering negotiations and loans.  I'll describe it....mostly negative results.  Then the January 1987 election came up....where the SPD folks (trying  to tell a positive spin over migrants).....went poorly.

Anyone around today remembering 1984-1986?  No.  You might find a few in their 70s/80s....who were living in Berlin in that era.....laughing over the details.

A tactic created by DDR?  I've had this thought over the years....it was probably a Soviet KGB idea....simply to test and see how far/how stupid....politicians in Germany could get.

If the 1987 election had gone better for the SPD (end result....37-percent for them)?  DDR would have continued the import....probably ramping up 150,000 per year.

What happened to the 150,000?  Well...some folks point out a fair sum were shipped out of Berlin eventually.....to western Germany.  However....some of the Lebanese folks stayed, and created suburbs for mostly their population, and in a funny way....got into gang-activity, drug-dealing and crime.   Yeah....40 years later....part of the crime crap....goes back to this era.

Oh, and the Lebanese folks in western areas of Germany....developing also into gangs and drug-dealing?  Yeah, but lets not engage in history stories.

Enough material for a 500-page book?  Probably....but it's just dull history BS.

Starmer

 Keir Starmer....PM of the UK....resigning Monday?  Appears that way.

Labour says....they can avoid a election....appoint a replacement and continue on.

Some polls indicate that seven out of ten Brits would  not vote for Labour in a election....mostly over achievements of Starmer.

Getting Labour back into good numbers?   You basically need a guy who does nothing...says nothing....has zero accomplishments for a year.

Oddly, the biggest must-do-task left on the board of Starmer and Labour....rejoin the EU.  

Just Kinda German-Funny

In case you've never been around Germany during a World-Cup....there's public-viewing.  This mostly consists of picnic tables, chairs, and a lot of beer.  Some are catered affairs offered by the regional/city cultural 'authority'....some are just local pubs/bars who have a area (usually out of doors).

Usually....the only rule existing is not to binge-drink.

This year....oddly, I noted a story this week out of Kassel (city about two hours north of Wiesbaden).

This Kassel cultural center went and banned bringing of national flags to its public viewing event for the soccer World Cup. 

I paused over this....the necessity for the rule?  They say that that national flags could come across as exclusionary, intimidating, or politically charged-up.

So....NO flags are the rule.

Locals from Kassel pointed out that Palestinian flags were visible at previous events.  They also brought up the LGBTQ flag.

The problem here?  Well.....this cultural center is publicly funded (by the state and city).

How many German cities have a no-flag rule in play? No one says much....but I  would imagine if you looked....it's more than a dozen.

Can you function as a no-flag nation....if it bothers folks that you have a German national flag?  I'm not that sure about that.

Here's the thing....if you bring up this NO-flag BS....if the AfD goes pro-flag....there's probably another three-to-five million extra votes for AfD....just over a stupid pro-flag position.  

News App Chatter

 For a long while....for Apps for news....in Germany....Reddit and Turk-TV was at the top.

I noticed this past week....Twitter/X moved to number one in  Germany.

At the beginning of 2026....19-million Germans held a X-account. Oddly, for each female account.....there's two male accounts.  

Content-creators expanding?  If you asked me over 2024 numbers and today....I'd go and suggest twice as many German creators existing today.  I might also suggest that Russian influence has doubled as well. 

21 June 2026: Germany: 6 Stories

 1. Can virtually anyone be a German President?

Well....the catch is that the Bundestag members are the only ones voting for you.   Normally.....it's a senior-citizen who is a member of the Bundestag.

This next six months....there's to be a lot of talk.  Some folks think it's time to have a non-Politian.  Some think it has to be a woman. Some are even prepared for a comedian to hold the office.

Presently, the Linke, Greens and SPD hold enough votes/seats....to get it to a lefty.

2.  France issued a mandate....because of the heat (45 C reported)....if you hold a fest as a village/city.....no booze/beer to be sold.  Has to be water.

3. VW Touran/T-Roc.....SUV's to be discontinued.

4.  Linke Party held a come-together meeting....new leadership.  During the late meeting on Saturday.....German soccer viewing occurred with some members.  Other members condemned it as 'nationalism'

5. Read through some Ukraine-Russia war-action.....some folks report they've seen Soviet-era 1945 tanks being used by Russia.   

6.  German Interior Minister (Dobrindt, CSU)....says he wants to increase deportations of migrants convicted of crimes to Afghanistan.  

There are around 284,000 male Afghans in some level of status.  Anyone's guess to how many have pending court action or already on a deportation list.  

Lanz Chatter

 I went back and watched a bit of the ZDF late-night talk-show with Marcus Lanz....the episode where he had the Islamic lady guest.

It has stood out in my mind.  (you can watch the segment here....in German)

At some point....after she's given her emotional talk....Lanz observes the impression that he has.

In essence....he sums it up in 20 seconds....it's rather crazy...how that the best countries to live in as an Islamist isn't a Islamic country....it's in the non-Islamic countries.

It's an odd perception that one gets.....you found some need to escape a crappy reality....find a better life or culture which isn't exactly Islamic in nature....does quiet well economically....feeling safe around the clock....allows a vast amount of freedom...starts off on a friendly footing with the accepting society, and then this odd 'path' starts up.

The 'odd path'?  Well....you miss the old mess so much....that  you want to drag it along with you and draw people to focus on your problems (which is what made you leave).  

Lanz is NOT AfDish or right-wing....but he's obviously speaking for what a majority of Germans have started to think about.

There's probably a hundred-odd things I've learned about German culture/society over the years.....one of those being....eventually, the German nature to be blunt and tell you some stuff that you probably don't want to hear, but you deserve it never-the-less.

Bahn Chatter

So...in the old days....the railway folks.....the Deutsche Bahn....offered up currywurst/fries if you had a bistro-wagon on the train.

I'm not saying it was four-star stuff....but on a four-hour journey....it was typically the only solid food sold.

This week....it came out....the EU regulated the situation.

There's a new EU F-gas regulation....over refrigerant....so you can't freeze anything much on the train.  So....the fries are deleted....as a option.

I paused over this....probably some environmental necessity....which might make sense (or not).

To be fair.....by 2035, I expect the bistro-wagon to be eliminated entirely (by EU regulations)....because even serving chilled soda, or heated coffee....might be a bad thing.

US-Australia World Cup Game/Ref

 As they approached the 90th minute of the game (roughly 6 min of over-time left)....it evolved into a medical issue for the ref....leg-cramps.

So the med-guy comes out and helps.....then some alternate ref comes out with some tube of liquid 'stuff'....must have been a maximum dose of magnesium.....ref drinks  it and the cramps are gone in 30 seconds.

Made me wonder what this might be.

Drug Facts

 Just a little German fact....between 1859 and 1912....German chemists invented meth, cocaine, heroin and ecstasy.  

I would imagine if WW I (1914) hadn't come along....there's probably another dozen nifty drugs they would have discovered.

Three Observations Over 'Heat'

 First, via both German commercial and public news....three pieces this  week so far...talking over the 'horror' of being in hospitals that lack AC.  I looked it up....roughly 32-percent of German hospitals have AC.

Yeah, it's a problem if you get up into the 34 C (93 F) range....couple of days straight.

My advice....wheel yourself out into the gardens (most hospitals have a shaded area) and sip on chilled water.

Second, you start to now notice briefly dressed Germans....men and women.

It wouldn't matter if the women were all model-types, but it's an issue if you  have a 50-year-old gal.....marginally-dressed....showing 80-percent of her body. And it's  almost the same if Huns (the 70-year old retiree) is wearing  just a pair of underwear while sitting on his balcony.

Third, I can understand the 'doom-chatter-BS', but after you get two-plus hours  over a entire day from  TV news.....you come to ask if more people die in the summer, and the answer is ALWAYS the majority of folks die in the winter months. 

If you try to explain this to Germans....they seem to get confused.

20 June 2026: Germany: 4 Stories

 1. How this Musk-versus-ZDF thing likely goes?

The lawyer for Musk says he'll go back over three years to review all of the 'insults'.   If you ask me.....I'd suggest at least fifty occasions where they probably got themselves into 'trouble'.

Each is a case by itself....possibly between  10,000 and 100,000 Euro of 'damage'. But here's the thing that would hurt the most....if the judge says you owe a on-the-air apology....saying what you did....admitting it was either fake-news or wrong, that's fifty occasions that you'd have to say this.

The money won't matter that much....it's the apology business that gets under the skin of the network in the end.

2. Gas sales limits in Moscow? 

Well...within greater-Moscow, there are around 40 brands...of which ten probably account for 50-percent of the gas sold.  One of the top ten....this past week....went to a 20-liter gas sale limit per day. Another one or two of the brands are  'talking' of a limit.

3.  Western coast of France.....45 C (113 F).  Locally for me....hit 34 C yesterday, but rapidly changed as a storm front came in. Based on weather data....I'd say nine more days of 30-plus temp's....before we dip back into high 20s.

4.   NBA in talks....European league.  No one says when.  Appearing that both Munich and Berlin being discussed.

Heat Advice

1.  On bus and rail travel...even if they claim AC....its probably is only effective up to 30C.  Avoid travel after noon.

2.  Physical labor?  Get it done by noon.

3. Avoid hot soup.

4.Avoid booze/beer until after dinner.

5. Take magnesium in liberal amounts....especially after 9 PM.

6. Park the car in shade as much as possible. 

7. Whatever level of water you normally consume....up it by 50 percent.

8. Keep the shutters and windows closed...after 11 AM. 

9.  Find a weather gal who feeds you only basic weather BS. 

10. A wet towel around 6 PM helps.

'Expert' Status

Last night....via ARD (public TV,  Channel 1)....for the 8 PM Tagesschau news piece....one of the key items was 'HEAT' and German kids.

Lots of folks seem worried over the 35 C temps and kids.

So in the midst of this news item....ARD has a 'expert' to speak on kids and climate.

The name of the expert popped up.....oddly (I  do this once or twice a week)....I looked up the background of the expert.

Well...she  was a former employee/journalist for ARD.

I'm not denying that she doesn't deserve expert-status....it's just that you get presented 'experts' around the clock now....with the German news folks....the BBC/Sky.....CNN....etc.  At some  point, you start counting and realize in a single year....you might get 100,000 'experts' telling you something....maybe true, half-true, or fabricated.

19 June 2026: Germany: 8 Stories

 1. German finance folks are estimating the final bill on the Covid masks that Spahn 'order' (recklessly)....goes to 4-billion Euro range.  Somewhere in 2026/2027 budget they have 'force' it.

2.  For Thursday aftermath in Moscow....there must have been near 100 drones that 'hit' something.  For fuel-production....I'd say if they could mount a full-week of  this level....gas-production probably would shut down for several months.

3.  95 F/35 C is predicted in my valley today....with possible hail toward the evening. Probably seven days minimum of that level. AC unit by this weekend....will be dragged out and set up.

4. It's now figured....one in eleven speeches given in the Bundestag....is AI-written.

5. Some German gov't chatter.....maybe they have to introduce 'siestas' into Germany for summer months?

Only way I'd say it'd work....allow people to come in 2 hours early (6AM), if you do physical work, or have a NON-AC office.

6.  Virtually parties in Germany are identified now (except for AfD) with Islamic 'agents'....says a researcher who has viewed the issue.

The way it's said....it's like some influencers...with a agenda.

7.  Gov't study concludes....to get better safety numbers....lower B-roads throughout Germany to 80 kph (instead of 100 kph).  

To be honest....getting it to 50 kph....might even be safer.

8.  28k VW workers taking a 'deal' to leave the company.

Spy BS

I sat today and read through a piece....from the German intelligence folks.

They identified Turkey’s national intelligence service.....as one of the four most active foreign espionage actors operating in Berlin.

The four?  Russia, China, Turkey and Iran.

Fairly deep report according to those who read it....140-page report.

Oddly, they avoided mentioning the US as  the 5th.

How many spies/espionage-players are there? I'd bet well over 10,000 across all of Germany.

Something to worry about? I suspect the Germans filter 3,000-percent of BS into the system....so little of value comes out.

Don't Go And Burden Society Thought

 There is ONLY one culture/society....that I respect with no questions asked.....the Japanese.

In their language....they have this expression: "Meiwaku wo kakenai."  It basically means....don't go and burden others.

As a guest of Germany (I consider this my status)....I often think of myself....not putting a burden on Germans, the culture, the society, the locals, the police or the gov't.

In fact, I put so much into this don't-burden-others....that it bothers me when I see others (non-Germans/visa-holders) who go out of their way to burden society.

I even press this thought (avoid burdening) when viewing German politicians/journalists....they ought to 'owe' something themselves to society....avoiding burden.

The key issue?  There's probably several million folks now in Germany....with some crazy agenda....to cause burden upon society.  

Fixing this?  We might need to bring in several hundred-thousand Japanese....to bring change.

A Clinic Story

 About five weeks ago....I had Shingles (bad)....on the forehead....spending 6 days in a local Wiesbaden clinic. The way Tricare (my mil-health-insurance) works.....I pay a portion up front, then present itemized bill....getting paid back (roughly 4 weeks later).

Well....I had to talk to the clinic guy today....who manages the bill business.  I won't mention the name of the clinic.

I was expecting a itemized bill this week.....to present to Tricare. 

I visit 'Karl', and he says....it won't be for a while.  There's this story.

Karl works in a 2-man office....the 2nd guy (junior employee)....left....about a month before I entered the hospital.  In the way that Karl told the story....this guy (I'll give him the name 'Woody').....had been slow in getting bills out...maybe going back to the fall of 2025.....real-slow.

Woody had lost interest in the work, and frankly....seemed not to care.  Gen-X guy (I didn't say it to Karl, but it probably explains the lack of attention.  

So....Karl keeps the patients coming in and making money for the hospital...but without Woody (or his replacement)......the hospital is not receiving the money.

I asked Karl...about the replacement.

Well...he/she has been hired, but won't arrive till mid-July. Then there's training. Then there's stuff to clear up from 2025.....then I'll eventually get my bill for Tricare.

Why this all matters?    The bill is roughly 7,500 Euro....of which I had to pay 50-percent (with my Visa-card). Luckily, because of 'Donald'....it's been a great investment year (don't say this to my wife).  So I can pay the 50-percent myself, and quietly wait to be repaid.

I asked Karl....so when will my bill come? Well....he finally says....probably late August....meaning I pay the remainder  around the end of September,  and Tricare will reimburse me by late October.

I told this story to my brother.....who related he often gets lab bills...10 to 12 months after the 'event'.  I shake my head.....the system is crapped up.

How many bills is the Clinic sitting on....via the private patients?  I would imagine at least 300 of us.  Way over a million Euro....maybe two to three million.

This  Woody-position a candidate for AI?  I think so.

Russia, Fuel, and Reality

 This AM....I watched a fresh new Ukrainian drone attack in the Moscow area....hitting a fuel depot/refinery. From looks/damage.....normally, they could probably be up and operational within 2-to-4 weeks....however, where you procure the 'parts' is unknown (if you can't buy it from France or Germany).

So the German news went to a commercial service in Russia....asking about fuel issues.

Presently....in the greater-Moscow area....there are 25 regions which are  either fuel-less, or marginally getting fuel.  Even if your station gets fuel....there are usually limits of 20-liters presently for sales.

Some folks have started to talk of agricultural requirements (for diesel), and that fall harvest are just three months away.  The only way they'd reach production for diesel....is to lessen production of gas.

Naturally....some comments are directed at a fall harvest problem, and grocery problems for Moscow's population.

If you asked me.....is Putin smart enough to grasp all of this?  I have my doubts.

National food shortage by December?  I'll just say that shopping will  be an adventure, and a massive collapse would require EU assitance.....to a degree that we've never seen before.

How Should You Interpret The Merz-Era With Blackrock?

 I know it's a shock, but Merz only worked for Blackrock for four years.  It may seem like a decade....but it's not.

It's a resume-filler.

So....does the four-year period mean anything about managing a business or money?  He basically sat around with other money-minded folks....talking money....developing a Blackrock strategy.  That's it....nothing much else.

The funny thing?  His whole sales-pitch is that he was the guy that Germany needed to reverse job-losses....control taxes (deflate would be used here)....and give financial hope to the German masses.  To be honest.....no one else had this type of resume-filler within the party....so he had zero competition.

Eighteen months into the job....you get the impression that the Blackrock years didn't really amount to much, and the question is....even if Merz leaves 'early'....is there anyone within the CDU-CSU...with a background or ability to fill the shoes?

My landscape view?  The CDU-CSU-SPD coalition basically needs things to last 'as-is'....to January 2029 (the next schedule fed-election).  Even if another 100,000 jobs dissolve in 2027....the public has to just accept the trend (suck it up).  The next guy (assuming it's not Merz)?  Well....Blackrock experience won't amount to much....the public learned that lesson. Maybe they can find a retired soccer-coach, TV-reality star, or awesome environmentalist for the job of Chancellor.

How This Elon-ZDF Court Path Will Go (My Humble View)

 Elon basically hired a German 'cage-fight' lawyer....who probably won't back-down or be delayed.

The lawyer gave an interview yesterday.....saying he's going back over 3 years to view all statements made by ZDF journalists.  By the commentary, he's looking both at the news stuff, and public forums.  How much is laying there to be analyzed?  Unknown....but I would assume probably over 50 statements that might be 'dragged' into court.

ZDF at this point?  Their lawyers are now probably demanding a total review of all statements they made for three years....which could probably require at least ten folks and three months (my guess).  

Toward fall....the lawyers are going to have a intense chat with the ZDF chief-executive and board....asking if they have any willing nature to settle with 'some' cash (like a 100,000 Euro).  'No' is the likely response, and then the question is....if Elon wins, and the court says to pay up some sum.....do you have the cash ready to distribute?  Things will head 'south' after that.....with a long talk about cutting the budget for 2027/2028....borrowing money to settle.

Meanwhile....there's going to be some kind of weird arrangement where the lawyers sit each evening in the news room, and control content/commentary....to the point that journalists get pretty hostile about being controlled.

The end-game here....worst case possible?  I  would suggest that the damning collection of anti-Elon comments might drag the pain up to around 100k Euro and force public statement....saying they screwed up. I'm not saying it's the end of ZDF....merely a forced evolution where the news might be filtered a fair amount.

The anti-public TV Germans reacting?  They've waited years for ZDF to screw with the wrong person, and it appears that Elon Musk is their 'hero'.  The sad thing is that the money that Elon 'takes'.....is public-money, and it's not easily replaced.

How The Seats 'Game Will Unfold In German Elections

 It doesn't matter if you go and talk state-elections, or the federal-election....it's about gaining seats.

So if you were a conservative-voter  (likely to vote for the CDU), and the talk goes to Afd winning but being unable to form a gov't....then conversation switches to the CDU  Party (in 2nd place) having to partner-up with not just the Greens or SPD....but possibly the BSW folks, or the Linke Party. 

You sit there pondering this, and realize that fair  amount of the coalition  agreement....will be some agenda you can't agree with.

In this reality.....in the week or two leading up to the election....you as the conservative-voter....now contemplate the impossible.  You might vote AfD....just to ensure a somewhat conservative agenda.  

In this game.....the AfD folks who got normally 40-percent of the vote....now edge closer to 50-plus percent on seat.  The CDU? It drops from 20-percent....to 10-percent.

Nationally?  You could play the same game.....where the public is so disenchanted with a left-agenda.....AfD is the only path that makes sense.

I'm not saying this is positive, or anything....just that it's a coalition game. 

Explaining Buc-ee's To A German

 I do have a small audience via my blog to Germans (probably in the 50-to-100 range).  So  my wife asked (after my recent trip to the US) to explain Buc-ee's.  This is the shorter version....designed for non-Americans.

This commercial group.....designed a gas-station....where you'd  have them 3-to-4 hours apart...with 100-plus pumps, and a 'front' that is probably the size of a soccer field.

Yeah, there is a car-wash....traveling great distances, I admit....you don't really prioritize a clean car, but it is priced reasonably.

Inside?  Well....the freshest and most spacious toilets that mankind can build.  

Food?  There's a crew preparing brisket around the clock.  There's a 2nd crew preparing 'sweets' (chocolate).  There's probably 300-odd types of chips or items to pick from.

Yeah, I admit....NO sit-down area  or table....they want you to buy it....return to the car, and eat there.

If you were going somewhere a gift might be appreciated....they have probably in the range of 2,000 gifts.

I would imagine the typical couple....after they fuel, and wash the car....spend  about an hour with the toilet, and procuring food/drink.  Then they return to the interstate.  

Could something like this survive in Germany?   There are three to five states (Bavaria, Hessen, B-W, Thuringia, and NRW) where you could probably space 15 operations along the autobahn. The question is....would brisket be a magnet for Germans? (I'm not so sure)

A trucker-Buc-ee's a more attractive deal?  If you offered trucker-parking, showers, and a sit-down area....yeah.

Buc-ee's dissolving gas-stopping in adjacent towns?  Yeah, I'd say that most towns near a Buc-ee's have lost 40-percent of their business. 

Late Night TV BS

 There were two  interesting 'talks' last night...via the 'Markus Lanz' talk-forum show.

First....the FOCUS online correspondent Sascha Adamek....gave a assessment that the Muslim Brotherhood in Germany....has infiltrated 'some' German political parties (plural).

He didn't suggest which ones....obviously, it's not AfD.

At the national level?  I doubt it....more than likely...in several metro-cities, and maybe a state or two...they've talked their way into positions/committees.

The problem here....if you said which parties....people who tend to vote that way....might question things.

Second, there were several folks connected to Islam on the 'Marus Lanz' show.  At some point.....the pro-Islam gal...gave a position against the ban on young girls in the German school system wearing headscarf's.  Minutes pass, and the topic of Islamic kids doing the Ramadan stuff (no food/water during daylight hours)....which she seemed not to have a problem.

For years, it was pretty clear....Islamic teenagers/kids were 'free' from the mandate.  I'd say since 2015....lot of peer pressure going on.

Trying to make it fifteen hours straight...in summer heat....without hydrating...is a clear safety concern. It's bad enough that adults attempt it....but you end up with 12-or-13 year old kids attempting it?

 Clearly, the problem is.....you get into a German class where seven of the twenty-odd kids are on the no-hydrate agenda....putting peer pressure on the non-Islamic  German kids not to sip water in class, and parents start to complain about wrongful peer-pressure.  

Russia Story

 In the last day or two....it's been three weeks since anyone in Russia has seen Elvira Nabiullina (the head of Russia's central bank).

Yeah, it's a big deal.

Scenarios?  One.....she has a health emergency. Another that she was removed from power by Putin. Another.....that she quietly walked away.  Another.....she's dead from some heart-attack.  Finally.....some suggest  that some secret group...like the CIA....helped her to leave.

Her missing....equals a major problem for Putin? For the most part of the past four years.....she kept the banking system in Russia 'alive'.  On a scoring of one to ten for competency....most folks gave her a '8' or '9'.

How long can the 'system' survive without her showing her face or having a  replacement?  I might go and suggest six months.  At some point....Putin needs a face to 'pin' hopes upon.

If she just left Russia?  I would wager that the US would easily entertain her with some quiet Virginia setting.

If she'd been fired by Putin?   Well....he'd have to announce a new figure (sooner or later).  

Just another one of those funny things which don't make sense. 

(Course....maybe the aliens came for her.....like the 12 Americans)

The Safety of My Valley

 I live about 4 miles outside of Wiesbaden....in a valley surrounded by woods and hay-fields. I won't say it's isolated, but 'away' from the city.

In the past decade for trouble?   We had a Dutch-team come in and blow up the bank's ATM machine (like at 3 AM). We had some early-to-rise gal on the main-drag who left the front-door to catch a early bus into town....to meet some teen 'robber' who attempted to grab her purse (she refused to give in).   We had some guy rob the post office at 4:59 PM (as she was closing)....waving a gun around.  We had a 10-month period one year....where 10 cars were stolen.

The 70s, 80s, 90s, and 00's?  Well...nothing much. We've always had an average of five to ten house-break-ins per year. 

There's no crazy nuts or assaults.

My general safety view?  Metro areas equal some level of lesser-safety....that you have to accept....as part of living in urbanized areas. 

This is Germany of the modern era....if you want 'X'....you need to accept certain things.

When I hear a gunshot at 9 PM?   I know it's the hunter-crew up on the ridge....either shooting a deer or wild-boar.  It's not thugs from Mexico robbing the gas station.

It is....what it is.

Late-Night TV Chatter

 Former Federal Interior Minister Thomas de Maizière did a late-night German talk  show.  I'd describe him as a fairly thoughtful 'thinker'.   

At some point, the moderator asks him about the causes  of the AfD's success.

Maizière says something to the effect....he doesn't see the causes of the AfD's success solely in mistakes by the government.  He suggests....there needs to be some  'effect-for-greater-willingness-to-change' among the population.

I paused here.  

First,  you'd have to find some 'path' where the public is convinced of some greater good in the 'making'.   So far.....this has not been a great epic/saga story.  The news media and content-makers-for-the-gov't....have done a half-ass job.

I'm not even convinced that AfD did their job in telling their story or successes.

Second, I would imagine for every 500 'good' stories of migration that you can tell....there's one pretty lame/crappy story....where Germany was too much  for some migrant-guy to handle. The problem....once you yank on this guy's 'chain' and document the deportation necessity.....it's a four-star mess and makes the gov't look like dimwits.

Finally, some German will eventually ask....where in the Constitution is 'change' mandated?

YouGov Polling

 If a national election were held today in Germany?

AfD would have 29-percent.

CDU-CSU: 20-percent.

SPD: 12-percent.  Greens: 14-percent.  Linke: 12-percent.  BSW; 4-percent. FDP: 5-percent.

So....here's the odd factor....if you split CDU/CSU....it comes out to CDU around 15-percent, and CSU around 5-percent.

If BSW were to cross the line to 5-percent....they'd get seats.  Eight parties....with seats?  It'd be a record (since 1930s).

Yeah....folks are awful divided.

UK Chatter

 For 2 days, I've been observing this Brit 'mandate'....curfew on Brit teens under 17....no social media except BlueSky.

I noted someone posting a comment from their daughter: “I’m confused. We’ve always been taught not to share personal information or anything that identifies us online because it isn’t safe. Now they want us to do exactly that to access social media.”

Yeah, it's a valid point....you WILL have to share private/personal data with the UK gov't and the social media 'clowns'.

Did the gov't take away phone-chat ability?  No...oddly, that remains in place.  WhatsAp?  That appears to stay in place as well.

End-of-the-world mental stage?  Well...yesterday...a fair number of teens were acting that way.

AI eventually getting into this mess?  I started to think.....could you rig up AI to create a 'bridge'....where you were age 15 and could still connect to social media?

Final observation....one day....these 16/17 year old 'punks' will be age 18, and vote.  They will remember what Labour did  to them, and in some funny way....pay Labour back. 

This Elon Musk-ZDF Court 'Battle'?

 To lay out the mess....ZDFheute Live (news update, public TV)came up on 12 June 2026 and was moderated by Christina von Ungern-Sternberg.  Rather than say she's a talking 'head'....no, she's also a editor....so  she writes her own stuff.

So for this update....she says... „Ein brutaler Mordversuch auf offener Straße in Belfast. Jemand filmt, das Video geht viral. Ein rassistischer Mob macht daraufhin Jagd auf Migranten. Dazu aufgerufen hatten ein britischer Rechtsextremist und Tech-Milliardär Elon Musk.“

Translation?  “A brutal murder attempt on the open street in Belfast. Someone films it, the video goes viral. A racist mob then hunts down migrants. A British right-wing extremist and tech."

Problem?  In the art of 'framing' (this is when you insert non-facts to get a viewer to your way of thinking.....she suggests that Elon said.....'hunt on migrants'.

At the time, I went back to Grok/AI and asked.....did Elon ever say such? No....Grok says never.

So Elon has put his lawyers onto ZDF.

How this will play out? I suspect Elon wants three things.....ZDF will have to pay for Elon's  lawyers....pay some guilt-money (I'm guessing  a sum greater than 1-million Euro), and have some ZDF employee on the news admit they created fake-news.

ZDF lawyers? I would assume they are deep into this and shaking their  heads.  There's probably some poor English translation BS involved, and no one really supervising the news  staff.

So...step one....try to just issue a written apology, and find that this will not be enough.

Step two....offer a 100,000 Euro and legal fees....and find that will not be enough.

Finally....near half-a-million Euro....the door will open, but admitting creation of fake news is a problem.  They will eventually reach a point where someone  is dragged out and forced to make a statement live on the air.

I'll add this....after this mess is squared away....there will be some management 'rule' established....if you are going to utter anything on Elon Musk, you need to clear the text 24 hours prior with network lawyers. 

None of this is 'funny'....but it lays out the problems of framing the news, and why you have to pay attention to what you perceive as facts....when it might not be a fact.

Are German Train Stations A Drug 'Hang-Out"?

 Couple of years ago....I went to Helsinki and stayed at a fine hotel about 6 blocks from the train-station. I asked the door-guy....any areas I should avoid?  He responded with one corner/end of the train-station....drug-dealer hang-out.  Naturally, about the 3rd day....I was at the station and  observed what I considered a fairly 'nice' and clean train-station....but in three minutes....it hit me....there was this 40 meter by 20 meter area....which had some shady-type characters (obviously dealers).  It wasn't dangerous, but the door-guy was correct...it was just a place to walk-through....don't linger.

About 20 years ago....I would have said this over Frankfurt or Hamburg.  Since then....you need to really plan your entry/exit....giving zero time to linger.

Mainz/Wiesbaden?  Both stations have roaming police, but if you walk out the side-doors....you might bump into the drug-crews.  

I would imagine if you listed the top forty train-stations of Germany.....they all have this problem now.

What pumped up the drug-scene?  I'd say mostly migrants....mostly young males, who got into addictions, and no one really saw the trouble brewing...until it was too late.  The buyers?  Male, and female.....Germans and non-Germans.

How things will go in twenty years?  At some point....a crack-down will occur. 

Crimea: Downward Turn

 I follow the war news/speculation a good bit.  This AM....I noted three things:

1.  Grocery shelves in the Crimea are slow in being filled.....I won't say it's a shortage, but it's obvious food is slow in being delivered to the region.

2.  Electrical outages in the Crimea are increasing.  The Russians can't reliably produce/deliver power.  

3. 9 June.....drone attack on a key bridge for the Crimea....while I agree, it'll be repaired within a few days....if Ukraine develops some massive anti-bridge strategy....logistics becomes a mess.

15 June 2026: Germany: 5 Stories

 1.  I watched the Germany-Curacao game...easily won by the Germans. Seats empty? I'd say less than 3,000 (humble view).

2.  Some kind of weird 'attack' in Frankfurt....argument between guys (they all seem to be 18-24....each guy pulls out a machete.  Police description....it didn't get extremely bloody.

Argument over what?  Unknown.

This happened on Zeil Strasse....main shopping district...near the Konstablerwache subway point.  After dark, its a somewhat questionable area to hang out...druggies.

If you were wondering....machetes are legal in Germany....as long as you are '18' and engaged in agricultural/forest work.  I doubt that this group were engaged in 'work'.

3. Swiss vote on keeping population of 10-million....failed.  Lot of discussion came up around Germany over the idea.

4.  Iran treaty signed....lot of speculation that German fuel prices will  'settle' downward.

5. UK says it'll set up a curfew for social media for 16/17 year old British 'kids'. 

Personally, I'd mandate all 17-and-younger kids to curfew at 7 PM....be in the house...in bed....sleeping.

Wiesbaden Street Fest 'Action'

 Went Friday evening  to the city street fest.

Spent?  Roughly 95 Euro over 2 hours, for 2 people.  Yeah....hefty.  A family of four?  You would have spent easily 160 Euro.

Pork-on-a-stick?   12 Euro each....a tad too salty.

Large crowd?  If I compared against 2019 (before Covid)....probably 20-percent  fewer people.  

Safety-factor?  From 1-to-10.....easily a '10'.   Each avenue had blocks up to prevent attacks.

French cheese/bread?  Probably ten vendors from France.

Creative Space Cost?

It came out this week....the Bremen Job-Center facility....went to  spend around 900k Euro on a 100 square meter room.....to be a "creative space".

I tried to imagine such a project.

First, you'd hire a consultant....probably in the range of 40,000 Euro.  Hopefully, it's not a friend or relative of the Job-Center director.

You'd install fresh new quality carpet....not the cheap stuff...for around 5,000 Euro.

Even though it's only a 100 sq meter area....you probably installed a 30,000 Euro sound system.

The furniture? High quality crap.....figure  in the range of 80,000 Euro.

Special lighting? Figure 100,000 Euro.

Audio-visual stuff....the four TVs....tied into a display-control unit...installed for 100,000 Euro.  Cameras included?  Another 30,000 Euro.

Sound-proofing? 40,000 Euro.

Fancy painting/art-crap?  50,000 Euro.

All of this....to give you a creative space?  

German Heat Wave: 'Desert Days'?

 Some German news service used the hype of 'desert days' to describe what is coming in five days....temperatures of 33 to 36 C (91.4 F to 96.8).  There's the hint that this will last for a week minimum.

I grew up in Alabama (knowing summer heat)....lived three years in Panama (tropical heat), and four years in Tucson (one day....it got up to 47 C (117  F).  So I know heat.

First, if you take precautions....no hard labor after 12-noon....hydrate regularly, and wear loose clothing....you survive.

Second, close your shutters and windows at 11 AM (keeping some cool morning air in).....and reopen only after the sun goes down....the inside temps aren't that bad.

Third, remember......the Romans came when it was even worse heat, and survived.

Fourth, the news media seems intent on making hot-weather into a demon  or 'dragon'.  It's not rocket science....fronts move in....stall for a while....then new fronts come to replace them.  

Fifth, drinking hot coffee for breakfast in a heat wave.....is probably not smart.

Sixth, the true death rate?  Well....more folks die in winter months....than summer  months. Don't bring this up to a German.

So my advice....suck it up for 80 more days....then  we get to fall.

14 June 2026: Germany: 6 Stories

 1.  Switzerland to hold a vote....keeping population at a limit (10-million is the number)....once at it....no more acceptance of asylum folks.  Anyone's guess how this will go.

Making some Germans ask....why can't we have a limit deal.

2.  Watched the Qatar/Switzerland World Cup game (SF stadium, 19 C - 66 F).

So....all the way through the game....it was the Swiss ahead 1-0....then in the final minute or two....Qatar tied....game ended.  Shocker for some Swiss folks.

Temp issue? German 'talking-heads' tried to suggest 'heat'.....I conveyed to my German wife....you can't get heat-stroke at 19 C.  

Stadium empty seats?   Camera angles were careful....but I'd take a guess...minimum of 5,000 seats empty.

3. Survey done on young Germans  (2,000)....ages 14 to 29....presented by N-TV.

"49 percent of respondents report experiencing stress, 36 percent exhaustion, and 29 percent indicate a need for psychological support."

Yeah....overwhelming number....can't handle life..

4.  Berlin police buildings in need of renovation.....they say it's currently in the range of 5.5-billlion Euro needed.

5.  Couple of days ago...evening update on ZDF (Channel 2, public TV)....news-moderator....up and claimed that Elon Musk and Tommy Robinson called for the "hunt for migrants" and for "civil war."

I asked Grok/AI to find the quotes.....after about 3 minutes.....Grok admitted....neither said either quote.

So I'm left with two thoughts....either the news gal is English-less (meaning she can't speak/read/write/understand English....or  she's drugged-up. Well....a 3rd option is that she's just blowing hot-air and manipulating viewers.

6.  My thoughts on 'Freddy' (the German transiting America for World Cup games)....to be honest, I've noted about a hundred Italians, Japanese, Greeks, Brits, French folks, and Swedes.....on the same type of 'adventure'.

Most seem destined for the biggest 14 days of their life....living in some fantasy.

Observations Over World Cup Action

 I watched the Bosnia-Canada game last night...ending around 1130.....1-1.

FIFA claims only 30-to-50 odd seats unfilled.....I'd say nearly 5,000 seats (it was a 43k seat arena) that were empty (mostly in blocks).  Just a guess....some folks bought bulk tickets to resell, and people weren't willing to pay into the thousands for the seats.

12 June 2026: Germany: 3 Stories

 1.  First German complaints over World Cup action?  Mostly that games are played at times when folks are asleep.  Saturday's first game with  Germany (against the Ivory Coast) starts at 10 PM. If you did hangout at some sports-bar....it'd only conclude around 1 PM.  Getting bus-action to return home....in most cases....would be a problem.

2 . From that firing of the Bremen Jobcenter employee (Fred Göcken) for voiced criticism of his agency's working dealing with welfare receiving folks....it appears now that various other employees (across the nation) are now talking about similar sentiments. 

They use a term for the Bürgergeld (welfare payment)....."worry-free all-inclusive package." (like on holiday somewhere)

3. Heat wave returning next week?  In my valley....temp of 32 C predicted by next Thursday.

The 391k Euro Story

 About six to eight months ago....there was a German bank 'break-in'.  They got into the safe deposit box area of the Sparkasse Bank....of Gelsenkirchen.  They didn't really rob the bank.....they robbed the safe deposit boxes.

So this past week....one client opened up a legal case....saying that while he had 10k Euro of insurance.....he actually had a value of 391,000 in 'cash'.  He wants the bank to cover the 381,000 Euro.

I posed this to the wife (German in nature).....she just started laughing.  First, he'd have to prove the 391k and she seriously doubted he had proof.  Second, why keep this in cash....it should have been invested....unless it was non-taxed funds.  Finally, she had doubts that the insurance company would even pay the 10k level.....unless there was absolute proof.

Secret cash?  I would wonder about this. He'd probably been accumulating this over 20  years....never reporting it as income (my guess).

The first of many cases like this?   Yeah, that's also my bet.

The Russia Saga...Collapsing?

 I watch around five different Russian economist podcasts per week.  One covers strictly grocery sales, and pricing.   Two cover banks....the other two....general  business trends.

I would suggest since late 2025....the five have reached a stage where they talk of the impending collapse.

Some elements involve the lack of cash funds....some zero infrastructure projects going on....some talk of manpower shortages...some elements involve zero loan opportunities exiting.

Since April?  Fairly dismal.

No one (even China)....has any faith in the problem resolving.

Putin unable to give up the war?  That's pretty much the weight of the problem.    

Three things I believe will happen over the remainder of 2026.

First, the Crimea will collapse entirely....with Russian troops escaping to the east.  A massive retreat....unauthorized by Putin, and troops refusing orders.....mostly over the lack of food.

Second, several eastern districts are likely to collapse and seek some framework to engage with China.

Third, the remaining oligarch members....'walking' out and giving up on ever returning to 'power'.

DDR Chatter

This week (9 June)....there was the official presentation of the Saxony Verfassungsschutzbericht 2025 report (basically....the yearly report on terrorism or extremism) in the German state.

So.....the Saxony’s Interior Minister....Armin Schuster (CDU).....made the comment that threats were now going on....with the right-wing extremist scene.....getting down to Kindesalter (juvenile folks).  Examples given....kids of 10/11....participating in protests.

He wants a status change....he wants the authorities to critically examine whether the age limit for collecting and storing personal data by the Verfassungsschutz should be lowered to 12 years. 

Yeah....so if you said some BS at age 12....you'd have a digital folder started, and kept (for years/decades).

Naturally, some folks said this sounds very DDR-like (old East Germany).

I paused over this.  You can imagine Johan and George...sneaking over to the police after school, and ratting on little Karl....that he uttered anti-society comments....remarkably....now having 16 pages of material against his character.

Society being able to survive 'crap' like this?  I have my doubts.

In some funny way....as much as people think old DDR dissolved away.....it simply waited, and got consumed into modern-Germany. 

Eventually, everyone in Germany will have a secret report.  

This Omar Abdulkadir Artan 'Affair'?

Omar Abdulkadir Artan is a Somali referee, who'd been selected to ref World Cup games in the US.

So....Artan goes to enter the US....traveling on a diplomatic passport of Somalia.

For those who aren't aware of the use....it IS a special/official type of passport....to be used by diplomatic staff.

Entering the US....'red-flags' came up over the use.

What can be said.....without interpretation....the gov't of Somali issued the passport so that there would be no necessity in denying him entry. 

Over several hours of interviews....it finally came out from the US side...Artan... is linked-up to suspected members of terror organizations (Al-Shabaab affiliates).  So on paper....this poses a national security threat.

Did FIFA know this?  I doubt it.

Did the gov't of Somalia know this?  I  would imagine they did....otherwise, they would NOT have issued the diplomatic passport.

Are there Somalia ref's not on some watch-list? No idea....an unknown.

Germans caught up in this.....believing you can't deny entry to World Cup  refs?  Well....yeah....the story is told in a way that you can't deny entry to refs...even if they are connected to terror groups.

Would Germany deny entry to Germans?  Over the past decade....since the ISIS-war....if you were a stupid German consumed to participate in the Syrian war....you can't re-enter Germany today....without spending several years in prison.

Are there any German players, or ref's.....on German diplomatic passports?   No (silly question).

Could the Somali ref come to Canada or Mexico, on a regular passport?   Yes, of course.  Oddly, this whole thing was designed as a news piece.

11 June 2026: Germany: 6 Stories

 1.  Stuttgart rail infrastructure project....delayed again? It's currently around 10 years in waiting-to-be-done status.  Based off commentary yesterday....they laid out around 1,000 km of cabling....incorrectly.   It has to be yanked-up and done right. Blame?  They aren't pointing fingers but you wonder.

2.  Some kind of massive power outage in Reutlingen (Baden-Wuerttemberg)....went on for several hours  Man-made incident.....everyone is avoiding saying a 'terror-act'.  

3.  Curious Forsa/RTL/N-TV survey/poll....Germans were asked 'who' can come in and fix all the problems/woes facing society.

CDU and AfD each had 13-percent.

Greens: 8-percent, Linke; 4-percent, SPD: 5-percent.

Then 55-percent said no party was capable of fixing the problems. Makes you wonder.

4.  RyanAir CEO gave a blunt talk on BER (Berlin' airport)....pretty negative...says the gov't now needs to step in.

Having recently been through BER....it's a nice medium-sized airport....fairly modern.  Bag-turn-in was five-star.  My general complaint....one  eating area....very limited seating (crap). 

5.  WELT piece: Talking over the Frankfurt train-station problems with safety.  One comment stuck out...they (the police) can run raids six times a day....yet the infestation of drugs....is still there.  My advice....if you have to travel  through (either via the long distance trains or subway).....just walk directly....don't linger....don't stop for a beer or burger.

My humble view....either in the station, or  in the underground area, or within 200 meters of the building....there's probably 300-plus people engaged in selling/dealing or using drugs....around the clock.  Cure? If they were to detain/take anyone....they need to physically remove them  (figure 200 km) from Frankfurt.

6.  N-TV: One in five Germans order 'something-grocery-like' via on-line now. 

The Arena-Show From Monday Night

ARD ran a forum (live) show last night....with SPD's Lars Klingbeil.

I watched probably around 25 minutes of it.  Two obvious notes:

First, Lars wore a suit, and was sweating at 200-percent....it was literally dripping off his head....onto the suit, and as much as he could wipe.....it just continued on, and on.

I felt sorry for the guy.  The studio was definitely not air conditioned.

Second, at some point....an older gal asked a question about the incoming migration folks, and if we really needed migrant-bus-drivers from South Africa or care-givers from the Philippines.

I paused over it....it was a blunt question.

So....if you go to any urban area (Bremen, Hamburg, Munich, Frankfurt, Erfurt, etc)....they have a shortage of bus-drivers.  If you go back five or six years ago....the bus companies made up for the problem by recruiting  French, Spanish and Greek drivers.  You came in....showing you could speak some German...had a license....and had a 3-to-6 month contract.....while staying in a hotel locally (paid by the bus company).

Inability of the cities to attract drivers locally?  Well....yeah.

Part of the blame is shift-work....part is the pay-scale.  

Care-givers the same way?  Yeah.  I went to a German  class in 2016....Czech gal....was offered a pretty heft pay-situation (in her mind) to work at a local retiree-home in Wiesbaden.  But she had to speak at  x-level for the job.

Again....same deal....shift-work, and limited pay-scale.

9 June 2026: Germany: 5 Stories

 1.  Last year.....about this time....my wife and I got a info sheet....a 'company' (leaving out their name) had won the contract to supply the village with fiber-optic (upgrade). They would dig up the pavement....lay the new fiber....arrive in person in spring 2026....deliver a new router, and hook us up.

Ok.....so the crew in the fall of 2025 started digging.  Oddly, they were all Albanian.  There were various issues but they eventually completed the fiber project.

Turning this on and delivering the router?  Well....delayed.

So yesterday....I was reading through news, and this odd topic came up.  The fiber company, the installation crew company (the Albanians), and several associate companies....under some fed investigation here in the region.  Cronyism and 'deals' accusation.

The odds that the new fiber deal will get turned on in 2026?  I'd say zero.  The original 'winner' of the contract....getting to keep the contract?  Unknown.  The unknowns settled by the end of 2027?  Well....unknown.

2.  Björn Höcke (the 'evil' AfD politician)....gave a speech over the weekend.  He basically went and said that West Germans are "German-speaking Americans."  

In his reality several million people in the East of Germany.....are "still Germans."

Naturally, I went to the German wife....asking her (originally a Hessen and  West German)....if she had become Americanized.  This spun her up.....probably was the wrong question to ask.

Now, if you were asking me (the American).....if western Germans were Americanized?  I'd say that the 1960s, 1970s, and 1980s....Germans themselves had laid out a path for Germans where various American 'things' had been inserted into German society, and in urbanized areas (like Hamburg, Frankfurt, Mainz, Wiesbaden, Koln)....yeah....folks had been conditioned in some ways to be German-Americans.

Eastern Germans saved from this terrible 'suffering'?  I assume Björn Höcke believes that.

If Germans believed this idea?  Well....they'd have to purify themselves....get 'cleaned-up', and revert back to the German condition of the 1920s or prior.  Pretty confusing, if you asked me.

3.  I did watch the 45-minute piece of ARD last night....'The WM Cup in Trump's America'.

I'll just say....it was confusing.

If you were trying to get some World Cup insight.....it was marginal.

If you were trying to understand sports content in America....it was marginal.

If you were trying to get hyped-up (more-so) on anti-Trump stuff....well....you might have a dose.

They did about 10 minutes of Ultimate-Fighting chatter.....acting like it only occurs in the US.  I was shaking my head....UFC is German based as well....these two journalists obviously lack German sports knowledge.

4.  WELT piece: Study done.....German public support for 'queer' people on the decline.

I sat and pondered over this. If you were asking me on German sentiment....they frankly don't care. If you want to be into weird/kinky stuff....just do it and don't make a theatrical show out of it.

5.  Oddly, Russia is suffering through a gas/diesel fuel shortage.  You line up at a station, and figure an  hour minimum waiting.  

If On Welfare/Burgergeld In Germany, Do You Have To Report Income From Picking Up Bottles?

 If you walk around urban zones in Germany on an average day....you probably will notice a minimum of forty folks....looking for cans/bottles.  Finding some....they will supplement their 'lifestyle'.

Average?  Super-aggressive types...on a four-hour walk....might collect 40 Euro for a week.  Most folks....probably get in the range of ten to fifteen Euro a week.

So the social office will ask about 'extra' income, and if you were truthful....you might find a rule in place....which generally states....anything that amounts to over fifty Euro a month....detracts that amount from your next month's welfare check.

This came up recently in Hamburg, with a 75-year-old German guy admitting in the range of 58.25 Euro for a month.  I guess the guy was overly 'honest'.

Couple of years ago....some news group followed a guy and his teenage son....who had a particular route through a soccer stadium area and downtown section.....who had several bags.  They had over 200 Euro  for the day in collections.

8 June 2026: Germany: 3 Stories

 1.  Via the ARD public forum show last night (Miosga)....question came up to  Bärbel Bas (SPD, Minister of Labor)....how exactly can the taxation/social pension program carry the 'weight'  to produce....Bas more or less responds....the older generation and women will likely have to carry the burden (not young migrant guys).

This is an odd argument that you continually these day....with stagnation, Germany is not functioning like it was 20-to-30 years ago.

2.  Noted this story over in eastern Germany.....Cops in Großziethen (Dahme-Spreewald) came across a 6-year old boy....traveling alone on an e-scooter.  Problem is....no license plate....no insurance....unaccompanied.  I doubt that the kid knew the law.

3.  I watched the US-Germany soccer game on Saturday evening....Germany won 2-1.  I have to say....Germany was not dominating the game.  If this is the style of the team for 2026....they won't be in the final four.

What Exactly Is The Scandal That Jens Spahn Can Never Escape From?

 CDU politician Jens Spahn up until the Covid era....was probably everyone's top five list for the right-of-center party.  In Merkel's last coalition....he was given the lite-duty of Health Minister.  

So as Covid arrived....there was this funny path for protective masks....where originally....THE expert (medical-virus guy....not Spahn) said masks weren't going to be necessary.  About six weeks later....the authorities determined masks  were necessary.

This problem erupted (I saw it approaching 6 weeks prior).....they (the commercial reality) simply did NOT have sufficient masks on hand....to meet the requirement.

Spahn went and did something fairly stupid....he put up a requirement for masks....without signed contracts or a clear understanding of the business-world.

Plane-loads of masks slowly began to arrive....on top of what stores/pharmacies ordered.

What you started to notice....the gov't  pallets....weren't really  planned out well....so they started to store them in military-storage.....then it got into overflow situation.  Quality?  Well....that was hit-and-miss.  Some Chinese masks were correct....some were crap.

By the time Covid had ended....Spahn's mess to clean up....added up to around  8-to-10 billion Euro.

Yeah....because of poor management....legal matters started up.   Best guess currently....around 100-million Euro in legal costs have been put upon the gov't.

Spahn's fault?  I don't think he ever understood the logistical side of the issue. Even if you quizzed the forty-odd staff members around him....I don't think nothing more than strictly virus-experts...not med-parts experts.

If you were to explain to the public....how ten-odd billion was spent....they'd start laughing. 

Where the masks are today?  I suspect....still in some military storage bunker. 

Firing Story

 This past week....ZDF (Channel 2 of public TV in Germany) did a news piece with a employee of the Bremen Job-Center (the folks who approve/disapprove your welfare pay-situation).

He'd been in the job for around 20 years.

So he said in a blunt way.....on his personal belief....around 30 to 40 percent of folks in  Bremen were approved for welfare/burgergeld....were capable of working and in some way....should have been 'pushed'.

Well...after the TV episode....management at the Bremen Job-Center got peeved, and have terminated the guy.

I would imagine that there's going  to be a rough reality for the judge who reviews the firing....with him likely admitting the guy is correct, and probably across all of Germany....the 30-to-40 percent number holds true.

Poll Reality

 INSA did a political poll.

So...it's an odd thing.  AfD would win  with 29-percent of the public vote in Germany, but be unable to get a partnership coalition. CDU-CSU in 2nd place with 21-percent.

SPD?  With 12-percent.  Greens with 14-percent.  Linke with 11-percent.

BSW and FDP?  Still at 3-percent.....thus getting no seats.

The 'Other' People

 Some lefty-party member of the Bundestag....stood up yesterday and admitted....in just four years of 'service' in the Bundestag....a member  could make what takes a normal German three decades to accumulate such 'wealth'.

I paused over the chatter.

First, living in Berlin is awful damn expensive.  For a plate of something that I'd  pay 12 Euro in Mainz for....you'd have to pay near 16 Euro in Berlin.

Second, it just seems to me....working around Bundestag folks....you have to accept a certain amount of stupidity and you ought to be paid more  for this type of situation.

Third and final....I suspect if you asked a hundred Germans if they'd take up a Bundestag job....probably 95-percent would say no.....claiming they don't have patience to do BS-work.

I'm now waiting for the lefty-member to get a EU job, and suggest the same problem there.

Q-and-A:

 1.  Has the peak of Russia come and gone?

All things considered....economically....2019 (before Covid/the War)...was the peak, and they will likely never cross that line ever again.

I read this past week....a key bank in Russia wants to be a middle-man....bringing in tens of thousands of Indians....as physical manpower for Russian infrastructure projects.  It might start....but they got no money (meaning the gov't)....so it's mostly BS.

2. Is the SPD Party (used to be called the 'party-of-the-people') evolving into some academic 'brain-trust' party?

Focus wrote up a piece (by Jan Fleischhauer)....suggesting this.  Polling mostly indicates the party can marginally reach to 12-to-14 percent of the public.  It would beg the question....who would replace them.

3.  What's with the grocery 'strike'?

Well....if you count up grocery brands in central Germany....it's around a dozen brands that folks recognize. Around nine of them  are organized into a union,  and want a salary raise.  So yesterday (Friday) and today....if you were attempting to  grocery shop....you'd find a closed business.

I reviewed what they want, and the key thing....is a 250-Euro pay-raise per month. 

I asked the wife....if forced to pay it....won't our grocery prices rapidly escalate?  She did the numbers in  her head (Einstein-like) and suggested that we'd have to find another 100-to-120 Euro a month....to cover the situation.

4.  This ARD-World Cup news-documentary piece....just weird?

To lay this out....the chief news guy for ARD, with two others....are traveling into the US for the games, and trying to tell a non-World Cup set of stories....about the folks who oppose President Trump. 

I watched a brief introduction, and just started laughing.  The German World Cup enthusiast....mostly guys....won't waste a single minute watching this. It's developed more for the non-sports viewer (mostly women)....to keep them engaged in their hatred-passion. 

6 June 2026: Germany: 5 Things

 1.  This Germany-UN-Seat Drama?

For a couple of years....Germany has been on some weird trend.....desperately waiting for this vote and expecting to get a seat on the top Security Council. In the midst of this....they even paid more  on 'dues' (roughly 3-to-4 billion Euro) to impress folks.  Well....it failed. 

So....my impression?  If you asked folks....around 80-percent of population would say it's not in their top 500 priorities.  Same crowd would say it gets you 'nothing'....if you held a seat. Probably 50-percent of folks are asking now.....you really went and gave them 3-billion Euro of free money?

The odd remainder?  Well....the intellectual folks want to talk over the drama and find the blame. The five things I hear?  Blame Putin.   Blame support for Israel.  Blame Trump.  Blame China.

If you ask me....I think they acted like 12-year-old kids the past couple of years.....hinting always on the vote, and they deserve to be voted 'in'.  

2.  Timmy-the-lady-whale-update.

Autopsy wrapped up.  Experts say they can't find a cause of death. Other than building a statue for Timmy....I  think the saga is finished.

3.  US says it'll stop sale of Tomahawk missiles to Germany.  Chief reason?  Well....Putin says it's a threat.

4.  Germany talking over regulating the entry of Ukrainian men into Germany....suggesting that they should stay at home and fight.

5. US gave NATO a list of asset which are 'leaving' Europe shortly (downsizing):

 - Currently 99 F-16 multi-purpose fighters in Europe, 63 will remain.  Currently 54 F-15E heavy fighter-bombers, 36 will remain.  They don't say which bases are affected....but would only come from Aviano, Spang,  and Lakenheath.  

- All long-range reconnaissance drones from Europe to leave. In addition, the number of MQ-9 strike UAVs will be halved.

- Naval?  The number of cruisers and destroyers will be cut in half. Submarine carriers of cruise missiles will be completely withdrawn. 

- Bomber deployments....temp stationing in the UK?  To end, period.

How quick?  Wording hinted at a couple of weeks for some....up to six months max.

The Decline of Germany Connected To Deindustrialization?

 Deindustrialization in Germany didn't start in recent years....it probably goes back to 1990s, with each year....presenting a 'step'.

Defining it?  The decline in German manufacturing output, employment, and global competitiveness, particularly in energy-intensive sectors like chemicals, steel, glass, and autos......was more prevalent than a complete collapse of industry. 

This 'path' taken....while having deep roots....simply accelerated dramatically due to a combination of policy choices, geopolitical shocks, and structural pressures. And no....while some is just plain bad luck....some of the 'step's' were planned.

I would suggest that things took off around 2010-to-2015 with warning signs emerging.....rising competition from China.....slow digitalization.....high labor/regulatory costs, and infrastructure gaps. 

The Russian natural gas mess, and Covid?   They simply speeded-up the process.

Where things emerge in ten years (say 2035)?  Survival mode will kick in, and I predict around 500,000 to 1-million Germans a year will be exiting....to countries with less issues. 

The key point?  Within three-to-four years....one of the major car-brands of Germany will either shut-down, or exit Germany. At that point, the clock starts to tick.  Might be Opel....might be VW.....might even be Porsche.

Change In Law Coming?

 I noted this AM....Saxony's Minister of Justice wants to advocate for the abolition of the criminal offense of insulting politicians. 

To get the job done....the Conference of Ministers of Justice (national group) is to pass a corresponding resolution next week and present it to the Federal Minister of Justice.

Why?

Well....a couple of months ago....some Germans using social media....called a certain German politician (thin-skinned type)....a liar.  More or less....they suggested he promised 'X', and had yet to deliver.

This guy went to the legal system....using current laws, and took the chatty folks (using the word 'liar') into court.   Result....guilty....one month's salary taken as the 'fee'.

This has (in the  past month) gotten a lot of attention, and even the AfD Party has focused upon this....saying it's not right.

What you can say...presently?  You could wish that so-and-so would tell the truth more often, or just wish politicians would avoid talking/BSing.   But  to call them a liar.....no, that gets you into court-woes.

Is German Urban Culture Dying?

There is this odd desolation of German city centers going on....where you get the feeling that 'something' is dying/dissolving....and mostly replaced by dreariness and barrenness.

Around the late 1990s....walking through Kaiserslautern, Mainz and Wiesbaden....I started to notice little things....where store-fronts were closed....big-name shops were being replaced, and less people were noted.

Year by year....the barrenness expands.

Less money part of this spiral?  I would suggest that the working-class Germans over the past two generations....have less to really spend, and staying home as much as possible....is a realistic goal now.

There is particular store-front in Wiesbaden....where if you count since 2019....there's been four different attempts to 'plant' a commercial operation....with each failing.  Last month, I noticed the fifth attempt to start up.

Swiss Pool Policy Unfolding

 Summer has arrived....pools opening in Switzerland

So....if you a Swiss citizen....you pay a standard entry fee.

If you are a non-Swiss person (mostly meaning French).....you pay double.

This policy addresses repeated incidents of sexual harassment of young Swiss women, aggression, and pool rule violations mainly by groups of young French visitors crossing the nearby border when French pools closed.

Why did the French pools close? Well....too much bad-boy crap.

Swiss support of the policy?  Oddly.....it appears that 90-plus percent of Swiss think it's the right thing to do.

Note, the Swiss 'Green-card' folks are safe....it seems to be mostly the  French 'kids' who are aggressive. 

4 June 2026: Germany; 6 Things

 1. Poll done....by Wahlen.  Topic....how is the economy of Germany doing?

Results?  Crap....40-percent.  Marginally positive....45-percent. Good....13-percent. Very good.....ZERO-percent.

The last time they did this same poll (Jan 2026).....1-percent said 'very good', and a majority said 'good'.

Yeah.....the general  sentiment in Germany is  that something is broke...economically.

2.  Vote came up yesterday at the UN....to  give Germany a 'seat' on the council.  The Germans were convinced....they'd cleared all the hurdles, and made folks happy....to earn a vote.  Well....Portugal and Austria got the vote....Germany failed.

Watching the news folks on ARD/ZDF tell this story last night....I felt like it was a kid's argument at the playground....where they felt they'd been nice to everyone...earning something.

3. Some rumor/BS.....started up....Greens wanting to get support for the President election in January 2027....to replace Frank-Walter Steinmeier with Annalena Baerbock.  

Some chatter indicating that the position ought to be for a female.

4.   WELT article this AM.....exodus of high-wage-earners of Germany being noticed.

5.  Now costs 12 Euro (per person) to enter the  Koln Cathedral.  

6. I watched a podcast where the topic of  Russian reservists came up (they were being activated).  So the letter told the guy what to bring....listing around a dozen items.

On  the list....toilet paper (fair amount), soap, shampoo, long-thermal underwear, and so on.  Basically....the Army wasn't in a position to issue anything.

July 1977.....I asked the Air Force recruiter on what to bring.  Gym bag....two changes  of clothing,  $40, tooth-brush/tooth-paste.  That was it. Second day at bootcamp....they issued around $100,  and led us to a BX.

The 5,000 Pound Guerrilla In The Room

I noticed today....several news stories talking of  a money-pit now existing with the Germany Federal Employment Agency (BA).

So....the basic story.....BA now faces a worse-than-expected cash shortfall for 2026....we are talking with a deficit projected at over 5 billion Euro....perhaps on up to 8 billion.

Cause?  Well.....higher unemployment and a weaken economy.

So....there's got to be a new  tax revenue 'path' created.

Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil.....I suspect....has probably a group working on this, and after summer vacation....will deliver a  fairly big new tax project.

The bad news.....this is purely to cover 2026.....then you get into 2027, and 2028....unless some miracle occurs....will require increased tax revenue as well.

What kind of harsh taxation is coming?  Anyone's guess.  

The problem here....is that Merz and his 'team' (the CDU-CSU).....were  voted  in to correct the economy....get things stabilized, and avoid unnecessarily inflating taxation.  

So if a new Chancellor is the 'solution'....with more taxes coming....don't go expecting the economy to improve.  Early election.....my bet. 

How To Simplify The Chancellor Exit-Issue

 Soccer scenario.

X-city has a losing record for their  team....so they scouted for a new coach.  They (the executive committee) hired Coach Merz. They hired this guy because he had a strategy for  'winning', bringing the economy back, and ensuring jobs.

But at this shift in manpower....the team hired assistant coaches (SPD) who were not tuned into Coach Merz's strategy.  The assistant coaches gave priority to cities in debt, reform, higher benefits, and more taxes.

About 18 months into Coach Merz's contract....it's obvious that the team is 50-50.....not really winning....not really losing.

Disgruntled....they are discussing now the dismissal of Coach Merz....to bring either Coach Hendrik Wüst....who seems to be more of a intellectual coach....not really a economics coach.  The other choice is Coach Markus Söder....who might be slightly into economics more than than the other guy.

Whoever they hire as coach....he's left with the assistant coaches who aren't reading his strategy or notes......likely to mean 12-to-18 months of 50-50 play, and the city feeling disgruntled.

Added note:  Well....rumors started up....that the CSU (a sister party of the CDU and ONLY in Bavaria)....is open to the idea of teaming up with the Freie Wahler (Free  Voters Party).....to campaign across the 15 other states.  The two slightly more conservatives than the CDU?  Yeah.

Anyone's guess that the two might take votes away from the CDU and alienate the CDU-CSU relationship greatly.  

My thoughts?  Having the CSU-FW Party nationwide?  They'd probably take 50-percent of CDU votes.....meaning a national poll situation (CSU-FW near 10-percent and CDU nationally near 10-to-12) percent).

Dividing the nation even more?  Yeah.

BS strategy?  Maybe....but the question is....has the CDU dug itself a mighty big hole and can't climb out presently?

Poverty Numbers

 Germany's poverty rate rose to a record high for 2025....of 16.1-percent.....meaning that 13.3 million folks are classified as poor.

This  will  be discussed a good bit, but the question is....how can either the CDU-CSU or SPD....resolve  this?

Left out of this?   Well....you  have to wonder from the  13.3-million....how many were working-class poor....meaning they marginally make enough....even with a job.

Giving them more 'free' money?  It'd mean you have to raise taxes, and hope that 'free' money would resolve the poverty-status (it rarely works).

Eight Observations Over Where German Politics Is Headed

 1.  I'd give the Chancellor-swap-out situation occurring by  late fall....near a 75-percent chance of occurring.

There's no scandal brewing....I'd describe simply like a soccer team which ought to be in first-place, but the coach can't seem to get things lined up, and the team is mostly at a 50-50 situation.  So the idea of dumping the coach....pops up daily.

2. Was Merz hired to be the guy to bring economic stability into focus?

Yes.....but nothing much has been delivered.

3. Isn't most of the negativity in economic sense....all leading back to the anti-nuke-energy, anti-coal-energy, hefty cost of power, cut-off from Russian natural gas, etc?

This is a twenty-plus year 'path'....designed into weird way to diminish jobs and lessen the economic strength of Germany.

4.  Even if they replace the Chancellor at this point....is there any real plus-up for the new guy?

I would offer the opinion....NO. He (whoever is selected by the party)....is linked to the SPD coalition, and not able to evolve into a better situation.  I'd say within 12 months....coalition-collapse is possible, and a fresh new election likely by the fall  of 2027.

5. In terms of state-elections,  and likely AfD 'wins'....aren't CDU-likely voters likely to be disenchanted with coalitions where the CDU teams with the Linke Party?

If I were a CDU-conservative-voter, and you posed the 'fix' to be a CDU-led state gov't where they are partnering with the Linke folks....I'd probably stay home (not vote),  or ask if things are bad enough for me to vote AfD.  Humble guess: one out  of three CDU-voters probably would feel this way.

6.   The 'hot'  topic toward Sep/Oct.....who replaces the President (Frank-Walter Steinmeier, SPD).  His term ends in early 2027.  I'm betting that the SPD works hard to ensure their  pick 'wins'.

7. The term 'REFORM' probably gets  hyped by the two public TV networks....at least forty times a day now.

8. Is it just odd...the polling for the left-of-center SPD.....at 12-to-13 percent?

You have four parties that fall into the left-of-center mentality.....each with a different brand.

2 June 2026: Germany: 6 Things

 1.  I spent the weekend in Frankfurt (concert). One negative.....you exit the train and walk around the Bahnhof....you know that you are in the midst of a drug 'den'. Stepping out outside and walking a half-block to the tram....I probably observed forty druggies over a 2-minute period.

2.EU say it'll ban single-use plastic packets for ketchup and other condiments.  Your only choice?  Use shared bottles or refillable dispensers.

They really didn't need to micro-manage this BS.

3.  German federal police say....for  2025....27,818 violent crimes in the railway sector were reported.  Leipzig and Dortmund are at top of the statistics.

4. It would appear that Boris Pistorius's (Defense Minister) general decree lifting the regulation requiring men between 18 and 45 years old to obtain an exit permit if they wish to leave Germany for an extended period/vacation....has been deemed legally invalid.

Def-Minister does NOT have this power.  

So....in theory, the Bundestag would have to invent a 'power' and pass the measure, or just pretend there's no need for a waiver.

5.  German woman entering the country from Switzerland...in a van....with 55 suitcases.  Audit-check conducted by the police. They didn't believe her story.

She claimed all were her personal clothing. They x-rayed all 55....yep, they were clothes.    

6.  GMS (poll service) did a poll....shows that FDP has gained 2 points....up to five-percent of Germans would vote for them.

Mostly took voters from CDU and SPD.

Q-and-A: Three Things

 1.  Is the general public kinda demanding a switch-out on Chancellors in Germany?

I'd say for 6 months....majority (probably up to 60-to-70 percent) feel that Merz can't get the job done....meaning fixing the economy and saving jobs.

The leading CDU replacement (within the party)?  Well....if he is selected and this replacement occurs....I'd give this guy 6 months before he's led to the door and finished off.

There's simply not any bright 'star'.

2.  State elections in Germany stating to matter?

I'd say over the next 18 months...it's a big deal.  

3.  All this crap from the 'end' of the Scholz SPD-led coalition....lighting the fire to this dismal trend?

You can make this connection.....but there's a trend going on for the economy...over 30 years of decisions....where bad decisions were made, and  led to consequences.