Is There A Budget Shortfall About To Fall Into Place? (In Germany)

 Well....for 2027's budget....YES.

The Bundesrechnungshof (Germany’s independent Federal Court of Auditors) analyzed the 2027 draft budget and says a budget gap (Deckungslücke) of 160.7 billion Euro exists.

The way to look at this?  There are planned expenditures of 555.4 billion Euro....with a projected tax revenues of 394.7 billion Euro.  Roughly speaking....it's around 30-percent of spending that is not currently covered by revenues and must be financed primarily through new bank-borrowing.

Remarkably sounding like 2024?  Well....under the SPD-coalition....they had a serious budget failure, and the FDP-partner (owning the Finance Army of the gov't)....refused to borrow excessive funds.

Merz so far?  He has NOT said much.

Ukraine hoping to get more funding via Germany?  I'd say extra funds are near impossible to talk about.

What can you blame the spending upon?

Mostly social spending (largest category): Around 201–239 billion Euro. Roughly 132 billion Euro of that is federal subsidies to the statutory pension insurance alone. 

Defense (biggest growth driver)? The core defense budget rising from 83 billion Euro (2026) to 110 billion Euro (2027), a jump of roughly one-third. 

Massive taxation coming?  Well....you'd have two choices....borrowing more money and hoping for a economic turn-around (not likely).....or collapse the gov't (like at the end of 2024) and leave it for some other idiots clean up.

I could see some idiots at the SPD and CDU hoping for a collapse....getting the Greens into some win-win position...forming a coalition with the Linke Party and SPD Party, and blaming the massive tax increase on the Greens for a year or two.

As for 2027?  Don't go expecting a lot of positive economic news.

Three Political Predictions (For Germany)

 1.  January leadership meeting for SPD (left-of-center)....results in Manuela Schwesig (current Minister-President of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) as new party 'boss'.

She'll find some brief path for numbers bumping up for the SPD....from current 14-percent to 18-percent....taking votes primarily from Greens/Linke Party.

I'm not saying SPD has a win-factor (AfD will have near 28-percent on polling), but AfD can't get a coalition gov't formed, and the CDU-CSU folks are weakened enough to be in third-place.

2.  Within 4 months, Merz's coalition gov't collapses.  SPD will see the CDU at their weakest point since 1945.  Oddly, this weakness problem will extend to Bavaria....with the CSU harmed by the national CDU strategy.

3.  Finally, I think starting around the last day or two of October....the French riots will start up in Germany, and prove to be a public safety problem over the entire month of November.  Merz has limited ability to halt the riot-damage.  Some odd blame will be centered on Putin/Russia....suggesting they hyped the riot crowd.  

21 Oct 2026: Germany: 12 Stories

 1.  NFL commissioner says the Sunday game in Paris is a 'go'.  No intention to cancel or move the game.  Just a humble view....Paris police probably would need a couple thousand to ensure fans to reach the arena.

2.  There are internal 'warning' documents for the German Bundeswehr (Army) that Russian sabotage is now possible (on German soil). (Focus)

3.  Some belief here in Germany that Paris-like riots are possible in Germany.  Whole different reaction by German police, and surveillance is probably double what the French police use.

4.  Weird talk last night on ZDF (public TV, Channel 2) public forum how....Marcus Lanz Show.  Topic?  Apocalypse....doomsday....chaos.  

5.  New poll on support for Chancellor Merz....now down to 10-percent.  Ninety-percent of those polled....said that it's time to have a new Chancellor.  

6.  Berlin-City police are now preparing for France-like riots.  

7.  Somehow....some German luggage that was destined for Valencia (Spain)....got routed to Chicago.  

8.  Bavaria (the state) poll....CSU is at the lowest point of past three years.....AfD at highest point (still in 2nd place).

9.  FORSA poll....indications of a majority of German now believe in a early collapse of the Merz coalition (CDU-CSU-SPD). 

10.  I was at a local Ikea store last week....around 12:30.  Walking past the restaurant area...it's jam-packed full....probably 400 folks.  I have to admit....per-plate....it is probably the cheapest place to eat in the region.

11.  Amazon says they will invest near 4.8-billion Euro in Hessen (the state).  There are four sites that are being reviewed, for these data-centers.  I gazed at the map....one of them is about 10 miles east of my place....near the Flughafen/Airport.  All centered around Frankfurt apparently.

12. Massive accident here in Hessen (Bad Homburg) last night.....six wild boar crossing a road......car wiped-out (six dead boar, two injured humans)....at least 100,000 Euro in vehicle damage.  Road had to be shutdown for several hours...to clear the mess.

Three Observations

1.  Chancellor Merz gave a 'talk' with Bloomberg business TV this AM....was asked about the France riot business.

His response?  “The reason for this is migration.” 

Then he gave a brief insight....blaming bot immigration and poor integration.

If you'd been the journalist....you should then ask...how is France different from Germany.

I would make the observation....if you went to burning down Hamburg, Bremen, or Essen....the German police would look closely at the riot-crowd....determine that 90-percent seem to be German and ask questions. It'd be classified as 'revolutionists'....not migrants.

2.  Why Germans don't really 'fret' over Russia or 'war'?

I would offer three basic reasons.  First, on a economic scale...other than selling oil/natural gas....Russia is at the same level as Albania (a belief of Germans).  Second, the folks who do 'fret'....are probably over the age of 70, and readily remember THE WAR, and the 1950s/1960s.  The rest of the crowd don't see a war-worry.  Third and final....if Facebook and Tic-Tok made a big deal over this....there would be worry...but you just don't see that type of chatter.

3.  Hurricane-like weather for the northern half of Germany for Friday/Saturday?

Well....weather folks are discussing this.

20 Oct 2026: Germany: 6 Stories

 1.  ARD (public TV) last night....ran roughly two hours of German civil service job chatter....mostly that Germany has too many gov't workers.  I'd say close to 80-percent of Germans agree....there is a problem, but selecting the solution or who to 'let-go'....is near impossible. Total of those counted?  Near 1.8-million.

2.  Chancellor Merz gave a talk yesterday....says that Germans are not taking the threat of Russia serious. I might agree....average German does not put the Russia-threat-chatter in a top ten thing to worry about.

3.  Italy is trucking 500 Italian soldiers to Milan....to send the message....no riots desired.  Police detained 270-plus folks from yesterday's demonstration.  Some commentary....indicating even 12-year-old kids were among the 'bad-boys'.

4.  Iran called in the German ambassador to Iran....some negative comments.

5.  Berlin-City: Linke Party talking of forcing acquisition of 160,000 apartments (to be city property)......would need 10-billion Euro to accomplish this.  Doesn't say where the money would come from. Belief is....they'd control rent costs.

6.  Curfew rules set for some French cities now.

This Paris NFL Game

 Sunday....this coming weekend....the Steelers and Saints are scheduled to play....at Stade de France (Paris).

Stadium would hold 80,000.

Americans, with tickets and flights coming over?  NO ONE has any idea of the number.  Best guess?  I would suggest 10,000 but it's simply a guess.

Odds of a cancellation or movement of the game (outside of France)?  There's probably a NFL executive committee meeting today and tomorrow...with French police.  Even if they deployed 10,000 police....how would you leave your hotel...get to the stadium, and then return safely?  For this reason...I think it'll be moved to Germany....either Frankfurt or Munich.  Amount of hassle?  Well...if I had $10,000 spent on airline tickets/hotel reservations....I'd have to probably spend around another $5,000 minimum.

Odd problem.

Assurances by the police?  At this point....worthless.

Beyond the game.....talking over American tourists for the next month....to avoid Paris?  I'd start to speculate that most are looking for a alternate destination (maybe Barcelona or Den Haag).

Court Case

Court case in Konstanz opening up today.

Case?  Former paramedic (28 years old)....allegedly....performed cosmetic treatments on patients for a beauty chain in the local area.

The key issue?  He posed as a doctor (using the name "Dr. Lukas." Yeah, he was injecting botox and hyaluronic acid into folks.

So....charges?  One count of forgery....and 470 counts of aggravated assault.

If you go by the law (Section 224).....each agg-assault could get you six months (minimum) in jail (on up to 10 years).  So if convicted on the 470 counts....it might add up.

19 Oct 2026: Germany: 5 Stories

 1.  Last night (Sunday)....ARD (public Tv) ran a public-forum show....with two 'honored' guests from the SPD and CDU parties.  For about 20 minutes (I eventually gave up watching)....the moderator (Miosga) tried to get the two to explain why the two parties are so divided, and they mostly presented the image how they are so unified. 

2.  Milan, Italy had a French-style youth riot.  Italian police countered....arresting 160 'youths'.  

3.  There's a Bundestag seating study going around....suggesting that in the next election....both the CDU-CSU and SPD parties....will lose seats (meaning AfD gets seats from both).  

4.  The German Foreign Office....has apparently given some 'warning' to Germans in Paris....to behave in a 'nice' way.  Way it was said....some suggestion that maybe German youths are there in some riot mindset.  Just odd.

5. There's a story from Berlin that some AfD 'staff-members' (not representatives) within the Bundestag....got into a fight/brawl.  This apparently occurred around midnight....Wed....with alcohol being part of the 'trigger'.  Apparently, there's to be both a AfD investigation, and a Bundestag investigation.  

Frank-Dialogue Chatter

This AM....I read through Brit news, and noted that British Army Chief, General Sir Roly Walker, spoke up and said that political leaders in the Kingdom.....will soon begin a "frank dialogue".....with Brit folks about preparing for war.

I pondered upon this.  

He didn't say 'who' the war-party was....nor give some hint of frank-dialogue.  He didn't really say what preparation for war entailed.  

If I were Putin....I'd call up and ask if I could help the UK in some fashion.  Maybe offer to pretend to invade....just so Brits had something to focus upon.

The general making up something?  Well....you can't be sure about that idea.

Even if the PM said invasion was likely.....then what?  I'm guessing only a quarter of the population....including women....would be willing to pick up arms, and go to killing invaders.  I suspect one out of three Brits might welcome the invaders (suggesting Russians might be a better fit for leadership positions).

If some French or German general had spoken to some threat like this?  I might suggest only 10-percent of society would take them serious, but you wouldn't dare issue guns to anyone....out of fear that they'd try to take over the country before the invaders arrived.

We live in odd times.

Asylum Chatter

Going back to July/August....in Ceuta (the enclave of Spain in Morocco)....a bunch of folks (mostly guys) crossed over and started asylum applications.

So out of the 80,000 applications noted so far....around 70-percent say that they are primarily gay, and deserve asylum in Spain because they can't be accepted in Morocco.

I paused over this.

Roughly 56,000 guys....gay.

Oddly, 24,000 applied for asylum but proclaiming they were normal-regular-non-gay.

Spain asking for proof?  No....no one ever goes to sustain their version of reality.

Male population in Morocco?  Around 19-million.  So if you use the 70-percent number....it means that Morocco probably has a male gay population of roughly 13-odd-million.  Just something to think about.

This France 'Mess'

 Couple of observations:

First....it's a odd crowd on rioting....combination of students, left-wing agenda 'players', and ethnic non-French.  To some degree....the Macron gov't has some fear of the group (not readily explained).

Second, as for why students hyped-up the rioting?  Well...the French government supposedly spends too little to educate the children of migrants (that's the general French media message). But oddly....France spends between anywhere between two and 200 times more per student than the nations from which its migrants come.

Third, while all this rioting and destruction goes on....the French economy is marginally in any position to handle more taxes to fund the school BS.

Fourth, if you pay attention....most all of the rioting occurs in metro-cities.  Small towns/villages?  Zero action.

Fifth, some folks have started to ask if schools in metro areas stay in closed-down status....at what point do you consider the school-year worth dissolving, and telling those students to start over in 2027 (fall)?

Sixth?  No cross-over activity in Germany?  No.  I would suggest that if you had any riot behavior....German police would detain you....asking your parents to show up (if you were under 18), and face a judge for illegal rioting/protesting.

Topic of Natural Gas

 I saw this graph-chart today.....nat-l gas production....Russia and EU members....from 1990s to today.

So it's odd story....up until 2000....the EU out-produced on natural gas....then things shifted.

My theory on what happened?  I think Putin looked at the dynamics, and paid off in some way....various 'experts' for EU countries....to lessen production, and count on 'cheap' Russian natural gas to fill the void.

By 2010, Putin held all the 'aces' and EU countries were trapped.

The EU 'Unbanning' Gas/Diesel Cars?

 It was a shocker of a week.....the French-German effort was successful.....dissolving the ban in 2035 to dump gas/diesel 'new' cars.  Both countries were in a crappy futures market over the car market.

Where things went wrong?  I'd suggest three problems.

First, Chancellor Merkel's agenda to just FORCE a German ban on gas/diesel cars....wasn't widely supported by the public.  Presently.....2026.....around 89-percent of all cars registered...are gas/diesel....remaining number are hybrid-E-car types.

I don't think there was ever a clear understanding by the politicians (from left and right) over the technology, public reaction, or reality of car sales.

Second, various car companies in Germany spent billions (each) to have models ready to go.  They mostly all thought by 2020 to 2025....public attention would be massive (it didn't happen).  The money spent?  So far, that's not much to show for the effort.

Third, oddly enough....the Chinese reviewed the German technology...copying bit-by-bit.  They didn't have to invest the money that the German companies did.

So this unbanning.....is there time to reverse the damage?

I'm not really buying into it.  Both French and German companies were geared to E-car tech, and there's probably a funding problem in developing gas/diesel tech cars for the future. 

Seven Observations

 1.  Maybe up until 20 years ago....there was only one subject/topic that you needed to avoid with Germans....that being Nazis/the war.  

I'd say today....the list of topics is getting near twenty-to-thirty (you should avoid any situation where AfD is brought up....don't discuss taxation crap....depending on the party---you might want to avoid a positive-negative talk about public TV or TV-taxes....etc).  

2.  The sugar tax is coming....1 July 2027.  What this amounts to?  A 1-liter Coke bottle (Rewe grocery) currently runs 1.59 Euro....when the full impact occurs....it'll be near 1.91 Euro....but you have VAT-up the increase (figure 6 cents)....so the bottle of Coke will be 1.97.  Figure 2027/2028 inflation?  A one-liter container will be 2.00 to 2.05.

Sugared-up ice tea (2 liter) will go to around 2.50 to 3.00 Euro....depending on the grocery.

I brought this up to the wife (German)....she's of the belief....for 90-percent of people, nothing will change.  They will drink sodas at the same rate, and pay the tax.  The marginally-getting-by folks?  She thinks they'd have to cut sugar drinks by 50-precent.  

Safe at this point?  Beer and wine.  Maybe some folks will flip from sugar-drinks to beer.

3.  Over the past week....lot of hype over the coalition of Merz...collapsing....with the SPD exiting.

Some belief for a short period....a minority-government might run (say for 3 to 6 months).

If I were speculating....the collapse would likely occur by early January, after the SPD chooses it's new leadership.

4.  New poll done in the NRW state.

So CDU would win....but they've lost around 8 points.  If the poll is accurate....CDU has to partner in a state-coalition with the SPD, and Greens....meaning highly diluted CDU brand in leadership.

Cause for this?  AfD is carving into CDU votes.

Election?  Still 7 months away.

5.  First indicators of student demonstrations (similar to France)....seen at a school in Berlin.  Demonstration size?  A pitiful 100.  But they blocked entry for everyone else.  They say more money needs to flow into the school.

6.  Some chatter starting up at the EU....debate over the right-to-asylum.  

7.  Long-term winter weather chatter for Germany?  Mostly....the weather guys are suggesting a more-than-normal mild winter....fairly wet (meaning rain....not snow).

My Love-Hate View Of DHL

 DHL is the German postal-delivery service....mostly for packages/bulk stuff.  For me....it is the alternative to Amazon-delivery.  I'm not saying I hate Amazon-delivery....but I have had enough poor situations....that I'm willing to accept DHL.

In my village, they added the 'boxes'....about 3 minutes walking from the house....there's a pick-up point.  You show your smart-phone screen....a barcode, and a door pops open.  It was advertised in the beginning....as easy.  On my first trip over....it failed.  My delivery eventually got reversed, and sent back.  

I went to the local post office to quiz the gal there.  She (being German)...admitted she knew almost nothing about the 'boxes', the barcode crap, or the tech involved. Not to openly be critical over German women, but I get the impression that 75-percent of them are tech-limited....meaning tech-crap barely works.

I would eventually find a YouTube video that explained everything in simplicity....oddly done by a Indian-guy.

So for a year or two....things worked with the 'boxes'.  Then the next issue came up.  They upgraded the App, and I wasted two-to-three hours....getting it to sync-up with the 'boxes'.  

This past week, the wife (German) came to me....her packages are being sent to the 'boxes' and NO email comes from DHL to get her to pick up the stuff.

I thought....simple enough...log in and check on the account.  Well...the App won't allow a log-in, without a pin number, and it refuses to send to the wife's email address.

Me?  I thought....send a customer complaint.  After three days....they (DHL) responded. Basically, they wanted her to call in....request a delete on her account, and start from scratch....whole new DHL account.

Yeah....as much as they convey this should be a simple task.....a simple App.....they prove over and over that it's prone to fail.  

This Starlink-EU Chatter

 Starlink....a Elon-'monster'....has basically carved out one-party only business.  So in the last week or two....the EU stood up and said 'no-more'.  They intend to fast-track Project Bromo, a joint venture by Airbus, Thales, and Leonardo....compete against Starlink.

Problems?  I gazed at the agenda.

There's to be arguments within the EU over where the build will occur, and jobs are divided up. 

Then there's a funding problem....where Airbus will probably ask for direct EU funding for several years.

Will European folks be given a decent rate for the Bromo-product (cheaper than Starlink)?  Some folks laugh over that idea.

Will some mandate force you into using Bromo....instead of Starlink?  So far....no one suggests that.

After pondering this a while....I asked myself....how long before a Chinese version of Starlink is parked over Europe, and cheap rates to Bromo or Starlink?

16 Oct 2026: Germany: 8 Stories

 1.  AfD Party....locally in Berlin-City.....have set up a party headquarters in a structure on Köllnischer Park 1.  So the neighbors?  Well....a German language school for non-Germans, a sex-fetish 'club', and a college alternate site.

Yeah....odd mix of folks renting in the same structure area.

2.  Some belief that the SPD Party meeting in early January....will reset the leadership of the party....with Klingbeil unlikely to still be party-'boss' (he will still be Finance Minister).  

Party needs a 'reboot'....lingering around 13-to-14 percent in national polls. If you go back 30-to-40 years...the SPD were the party of the working-class union-guy/gal.  You can't really ID them as such today.

3.  With the new increase on the smokes tax....you can figure a pack of 20....at twelve Euro in cost ($13, single pack).  So if you were a pack a day smoker....you'd need 360 Euro ($400) a month for the habit.  At some point, a massive drop in smokers will occur, and the tax folks will be in shock...missing funds.

I worked with a German in 1978....who smoked through 1.5 packs a day.  Doubt if he could finance his habit today. 

4.  Within VW....the ID E-car group....is preparing a recall for the vehicle....concerning the batteries.  What apparently exists...under certain rare conditions....the battery can catch on fire.

5.  WELT piece: Some school in Berlin had to go to court....ordering students not to engage in prayer....mostly because it was a 'risk' to school peace/safety.  Judge apparently agrees....it sets some people (juveniles) off.  

6.  This France-chatter over  softening EU car CO₂ emission rules?

For the Germans....it's basically relaxation of CO2 targets for cars.  For the French....it's a win because Germany now has to accept a carefully written definition of “Made in Europe.”

7.  Federal Minister of Construction (SPD).....announcing some serious control/limits on expropriation (where you use legal methods to seize property/buildings and later pay for 'acquisition').  

8.  Term 'd-you' refers to the new digital 'wallet' that the German gov't has approved....where you'd have your national ID card....digitally placed.

UK Poll

 I read through a Telegraph piece this AM.....some group did a poll....asking folks (men/women) if they would enlist to defend the UK....if a invasion occurred.  36-percent said 'YES'....rest said no (figure two-thirds of the public).

For an hour, I've been pondering this.

I've come to two thoughts.

First, why bother financing a military?  I'd shut down the Army, Navy and Air Force.  It's waste of spending.

Second, if I were President Trump....after the Greenland chatter success....I'd announce that the US (giving them no timetable) will be invading the UK. I'd lay out the plan....no more driving on the left-side of the road....the King can stay....Harry and Meghan can stay but need a real job....dissolve the BBC....and make Bond a gin guy.

Half of the folks willing to sign-up and defend the isle....will be pro-Trump anyway.  Remainder will just accept the fact.  

My question....how did this character of the Kingdom...dissolve away?

German Train Stations, Drinking, and Booze

 When I arrived in West Germany in 1978....one of the top hundred things that fascinated me....were train stations (bahnhofs).

First time upon stepping into the Frankfurt station....I probably spent an hour just standing there and admiring the landscape.

Over the course of the next two years....I traveled around the country and probably admired at least thirty different train stations.  I got to a point of rating them....with Frankfurt usually set at the top....closely followed by Munich and Hamburg. 

The Frankfurt station had probably three or four bars at the time.  If you stood around, yeah....there were probably forty-odd guys usually in some state of drunkenness.  They'd find their way to a platform, and catch the train out.  

Around 1990....as the wall came down....drugs increased around almost all German train stations.  If you walk out the eastern end of Hamburg....for a block....there's a four-star drug zone.  Frankfurt?  If you walk out the eastern side....for about a block....there's a junkie/dealer-zone.  Locals know of the issue....complaining to the city and police....with occasional raids to show 'something' got done.

I'd generally say from 2010 on....most of the metro stations have a boozing problem.   If you confronted the Bahn executive management (country-level)...they'd tell you the safety/security around the big stations is now a top-three problem.  So going to a dry-station concept....is the only option left.

Will it change much?  I'm of the mind that shops around the Bahnhofs....will get increased business...selling beer/booze to the same crowd, and the station security folks will be mostly monitoring consumption within the station....either kicking the boozers out, or detaining them for a dozen hours (to dry out). 

The next target?  I'd suggest the druggies being selected by the end of 2027.

'Path' of Things

I noticed yesterday....out of a suburb area of Paris....Saint-Denis....they had a 'ban' started up....signed by the mayor of the district (Bally Bagayoko).

Booze sales....banned.

Yeah, it is a Muslim-majority suburb.

Concerned?  If you were a resident of the area....you'd drive an extra five minutes into a non-controlled area, and buy booze.

Big deal?  I doubt it.....but people will sit there and converse about how things evolved.

15 Oct 2026: Germany: 6 Stories

 1. This Nord Stream II bomb case in Hamburg.

Basically, the prosecution has evidence to show the Ukrainian guy reserved the boat, paid for the boat, picked-up the boat, went to location at the site, and there's bomb-residue on the vessel (collected by the police).  

What the defense attorney said yesterday....the Ukrainian guy was under orders to blow up the LNG pipe...by the Ukrainian government.  

Judges in this case.....in a strange mess.  They'd probably like to agree....war-is-war.  But if you say this was OK....wouldn't that open the door for more Ukrainian attacks on German soil?  

Lengthy case?  It's hard to see how it'd be any longer than four weeks.

My guess....some guilty situation will occur....with the guy spending three to five years in a prison.  

2.  Odd jet-fuel problem in Frankfurt....there is a shortage being reported.  

3.  Business report via Focus....China is improving it's production of heat-pumps.  Just guessing...in five years....majority of sales would lean toward Chinese-made pumps...instead of EU-produced.

4.  Talks in Berlin-City over a Linke Party-led coalition....have restarted (with Greens/SPD).

5.  Alcohol-consumption/sales at train stations....now banned.  What the path was?  I'd say over the past twenty years....stations became a magnet to 'hang-out', and guys/gals got 'stupid'.  

There was always a drinking problem around the train stations (when I arrived in 1978)...but it mostly involved transit-passengers.  You had two hours to waste at some leg of a trip....you sat and had two or three beers.  

There's simply more homeless folks using the stations, and the added burden of drug sales/use around the stations.  

6.  If you view Berlin-City bickering/discussions.....the local Greens and the national Greens....aren't really reading off the same 'script'.  

7.  Sugar-tax profits in Germany?  Once implemented, mid-2027....the federal government estimates it will collect 690 million Euro next year, with projected revenues of 925 million Euro for 2028 and between €875 and €890 million for later years.  

If you do the math, for a 1-liter bottle of Coke, it will be around 32 cents extra on cost.  Sugar-free sodas?  No added burden.

I'll just say...if you asked a hundred German adults....no one much thinks consumption will lessen. Most will suggest that this is the beginning of a long-path....to tax all 'evil' things.  Chewing gum, chocolate, and chips....likely to be next.

Odd French Poll

 IFOP did a poll with French Islamic folks....asking what happens if next year's election occurs, and Le Pen wins.

46-percent of those polled....said they'd 'leave'.  

First, how many people would fit into this 'threat'?  I researched it....5.5-to-6 million (presently).  

Second....a realistic reaction?  I'm not so sure that bulk of the 46-percent are serious.  

But lets carry this to May 2027....Le Pen wins, and then what?  Maybe realistically....around 1-million to 1.5-million start to think 'exit'....where exactly would they go?  The only French-speaking country for a exit-plan...would be Belgium.  Some might consider Spain or Germany.  

Reaction in Belgium, Spain or Germany?  Probably negative, but since the folks have EU residency....they are free to move anywhere within the EU.

Curiosity?  Well...over half of the Islamic folks polled....said they weren't likely to move/exit, and obviously weren't too worried about Le Pen or changes coming.  That might be worth thinking about.  

What Was The Bavarian 'Circle'?

 The Bavarian Circle (in German: Bayerischer Reichskreis) was one of the Imperial Circles (Reichskreise) of the Holy Roman Empire....lasting from around 1500 to 1806)....figure 306 years.

Starting around 1500.....it was a organization under Emperor Maximilian I, the Diet of Augsburg.  There were six of these circles in the beginning.

Purpose?  Defensive matters....collecting of taxes, carrying out public safety/peace, regulating commerce.

14 Oct 2026: Germany: 5 Stories

 1.  McDonalds-Germany says in about two weeks....they will end normal sales of the McRib.  Yeah, a shock.  

Around five times a year (on-average), I stop and 'taste' a McRib.  I agree....it's greasy, fatty and high-sodium/sugar.  I usually get a nutrition lecture by my German wife if she detects any sign of eating a McRib.  I will miss it.

On the menu, for 37 years.

2.  Berlin-City talks over a coalition gov't led by the Linke Party and junior-partners SPD and Greens....have paused.  

Some speculation that a coalition build under the Linke Party is not possible. 

3.  BER (Berlin's Airport) believes there's a downward trend coming shortly, as RyanAir halts operations at the airport.  Increased taxes/fees drove this issue.

4.  Trial opens in Hamburg....against the guy that is suspected to be head of the Nord Stream II blow-up deal.  Ukrainian guy, if you were wondering.

5.  German sugar tax will start in July 2027.....agreement reached (2 stages of installment). 

Q-and-A: Migration Into Germany

 1.  What is the form for migration?

Niederlassungserlaubnis (basically a settlement permit  or a permanent residence permit).

2.  Always 4 pages?

Well.....it differs state-by-state...most are 4 pages. 

3.  Always in paper-format?

NO.....you might run into a office where it has to be digital/on-line only.

4.  This leads to residence card later?

Yes, the Aufenthaltstitel / eAT).

5.  Can you survive without a permit?  

I'll just say it'd be awful hard, and complicated.  If I were speculating....yeah, there might be 100,000 individuals in Germany....longer than 3 months, and intending to survive without a permit.

6.  Can you be refused a permit?

I can think of generally eight reasons: security threat deemed, zero language talent, lack of pension contributions (60 months before retirement), no skill or retirement funds, missing paperwork/facts on your ID, data in the form left blank (intentionally).

7.  Most positive story I've heard?

I was in a German class with a late 20's African guy who'd run a grocery store (since age 14).  Throughout the six months he was in the language class....he was working at a local German grocery....month by month....moving up.  The store 'boss' gave him a 'will-hire' note at some point....saying it was a job-offer to be a shift-manager, if he completed the integration class.

Diesel Chatter

 Yesterday....Chancellor Merz gave a talk:  he basically gave a thumbs-down on the  US-Russia diesel deal.  Quotes: "Such a decision is out of the question for Germany and Europe."  "Russia will only negotiate seriously under pressure, and that is why we are maintaining our sanctions."

I asked AI....what EU countries ALREADY buy Russian diesel....Italy, Cyprus, France, Spain, Romania, Greece, Ireland and Netherlands.

Did Merz know this?  I doubt it.

Is it possible that Germany already buys diesel off Italy or France....but it's a middle-man and actually Russia producing it?  Well....yeah, it's a remarkable possibility. 

After a while....it turns into a comedy.

Why German Politicians Have 'Heartburn' Over Social Media

 Once upon a time....German society existed off a somewhat controlled newspaper, and radio-TV market controlled by public TV managers (controlled by appointed state-monitors).  

You had mostly a left-of-center, right-of-center, and far-left political situation. Since the 1920s....with the Nazi-era added....this was the norm for public news.

If you reviewed newspapers and magazines from 1945 on....they had liberties to publish, and mostly stayed within a controlled thought process.

Commercial TV came in the late 1980s, but they tended to stick with sex and lust stuff....not so much politics.

All of this was the norm until you start to get around 2005-to-2015 period....where the internet and social media arrived.  We were finally at a point where 'control' was not a handy-tool.

The arrival of Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, and Twitter/X?  In the beginning, there weren't that many Germans getting into social media, and it was mostly a entertainment 'vehicle'.  

Twitter....all the way through the Covid-era...either via the EU, or via German controls....they could keep people from social commentary.  Then....things rapidly changed.

The real fear?  You could have forty-odd Germans in a single week....asking a simple question....which triggers half-a-million German voters to get angry....discontented over fake agendas.  A lot of the disgruntlement today in Germany...comes from people asking stupid questions, and the gov't unable to really resolve the argument or to find clarity.

The weakness factor for both the SPD Party and CDU-CSU Party?  Half of the problem is social media folks dumping over the lack of action or inability to solve problems. 

Maximum use of ARD/ZDF public TV....to create a message/brand, and get around social media 'hype'?  Well....yeah, that is part of the landscape as well.

The path ahead?  I'd say that the EU has to find some way of controlling social media (mostly X), and prevent open public discussions....to lessen the tension and prevent public rage.  In some odd way...to create counter-rage.  In some way, you need to invent fake Nazi-outrage or fake Putin-outrage....to accomplish the goal.

The Three April 2027 German State Elections

 So there are three state elections in a one-month period of 2027...which matter.

First, Schleswig-Holstein.  If you view polls....done in July (nothing since then)...CDU leads with 27-percent....SPD at 15-percent....Greens at 17-percent, and AfD at 18-percent.  Linke at 7-percent, with BSW and FDP both at 6-percent.

Oddly, nothing new since early July.  If you asked me over changes....CDU probably no longer sits at 27-percent....probably closer to 21-percent.  I'd also speculate that the SPD is closer to 12-percent...with this a race by the Greens and AfD mostly.

Second, Saarland.  Any polls in 2026?  NO....oddly, zero polling.  Toward the end of 2025....one poll put the CDU at 25-percent and the SPD Party at 27-percent.  AfD was at 23-percent.

If you asked me over changes?  I'd say both the CDU and SPD were closer to 23-to-24 percent, and AfD likely leads with 26-percent (my speculation).  

Third, Nordrhein-Westfalen (NRW).  Sep 2026 poll shows the CDU at 29-percent (down three from six months ago).  Greens at 18-percent, and SPD at 14-percent.  AfD at 22-percent.

Except for NRW....there's nothing much for the CDU to brag about.  For the SPD Party...if you were a liberal voter (lefty)....you are more likely to vote Green, than SPD.  

I can see a reason or two to collapse the federal gov't presently, but saying the SPD 'gains' some positive numbers?  No....it's mostly a Green Party gain.

Merz carrying any weight or 'hope' for April?  No....that's a given in the situation.  

13 Oct 2026: Germany: 5 Sories

 1.  Apparently, over the weekend....French hackers remotely defrosted refrigerators at several hundred French supermarkets.  Lot of lost food.....spoiled crap.

2.  AfD Party in Baden-Wuerttemberg....tasked the state to provide data...on child marriages.  Apparently, there are a fair number reported (not a German thing).

Reading over the piece....there's at least eight child marriages that were legally annulled (past 7 years).   Then there's 350-odd additional cases....going back to 2012)....which HAVE NOT been annulled.

One case (example).....11-year old Iraqi girl....hooked-up to a 17-year old Iraqi boy.  

If I read the piece correctly...there's two cases where underage Germans were involved.

I'll just say it...not something that Germans support.  After age 18...no one can say a word.

3.  Interesting discussion off ARD's 'Hard But Fair' public forum show....talking over the coalition mess in the Bundestag.  Because of the numbers for AfD....the CDU-CSU and SPD folks are forced into a partnership which can't really function long-term.  So the guest spoke up to the idea of a minority government.  Germany had this in the late 1920s....marginally functional during that attempt.

4.  Gov't suggestion....tax on AI revenues.  If you make a profit....in whatever manner you cut costs....you'd have to pay a tax.

5.  Porsche lining up to lay off 8,000 employees, and dump half of all management positions.

If There Were A National German Election 'Now'?

 My humble thoughts.....very unlikely for remainder of 2026.  I'm likely to believe if you were forcing it....there's 3 state elections in mid-April....where the SPD probably will get more votes than the CDU. 

It might be a strategy to exist....gaming the system now....to get more state votes and show a 'trend'.

In this strategy....you collapse the gov't and gear a nat'l election in two months.  

Timing?  I would NOT do it (collapsing) any later than mid-December....forcing the election end of Feb.

Candidates?  I really can't think of any SPD person who'd hype it big-time.  If you asked best scenario....someone might drag the 'lame-horse-SPD-guy'  up around 17-to-18 percent max (hoping the Greens aren't do any better).

CDU?  It won't be Merz...more likely to Premier-President Wust/Soder.  I don't see either getting the CDU-CSU to any point better than 22-percent.

Win by AfD, but unable to form a coalition?  Yeah....that's most likely scenario.

Any big advantages for snap-election now?  Other than the 3 state elections or the France election in April/May....there's no real reason to hype it.

Final word?  Having a snap-election now.....probably leads to a 2028 snap-election again.  Fairly weak gov't....no matter who is in charge.

Nat'l Polling?

 INSA did a different poll over the past week, They split the CDU and CSU up....two collections:

CDU: polls 13.5-percent (down roughly .9-percent) and CSU at 4-percent (down .6-percent).

AfD?  Polling at 30.5-percent

SPD: 14.5-percent, Greens at 14.5-percent.  Both unchanged.

Linke: up .5-percent, to 10.5-percent

If you asked me over indicators....in 90 days (early Jan 2027)....I'd say the AfD will be close to 33-percent, and the CDU-CSU situation will be at 15.5-percent.  

Both the CDU and SPD top level need some type of 'face-change'....new 'brand'.  

My view on the top five political topics?  Job losses, cost of energy, public-safety, migration reform/deportation results, and urbanization-housing 'fears'.  If you listed the top twenty cities of Germany....most all have a affordable housing 'mess' which needs to be resolved.  Same cities....fear of crime and mafia views.  

SPD Turmoil?

This AM....German Federal Minister of the Unemployed and Social Affairs....Barbel Bas....gave 'notice' (leaving).

She is the co-'boss' of the SPD Party.

Reasons?  Not much given.

What happens next?  The SPD has to have a election in early January to find the new co-'boss', and I suspect some name will be given for the new Minister....at the same time.

Likeable?  Within the SPD Party, yes.  If you asked for the accomplishments of the unemployed sector....there's nothing much to brag about.

My thoughts....there are several elections (state) in 2027, and maybe the party is eager to find a 'change' to the polling.

12 Oct 2026: Germany: 6 Stories

 1.  Saxony-Anhalt and BMW story continues on.  I noted over the weekend....someone connected the dots and laid out the reality....BMW already leases/sells limos to dictators around the world.  

Seems like BMW created a even bigger mess to clean up.  

2.  Odd evening with ARD's public forum show....Premier-President of Bavaria....Soder....appeared, and talked over the idea that if you were a CDU-member and in dissent....you ought to leave the party.  

To be honest....it's probably in the 10-to-20 percent range of disgruntled CDU Party members presently.

3.  Polish police are holding a guy....who'd had a plan to attack the Polish PM.  Still no clear agenda or ID.

4.  This oncoming sugar tax...isn't exactly supported by 'all' CDU politicians.  At least nine CDU-CSU Bundestag members are taking a negative position on the tax.

5.  WELT chatter.....French Fry prices expected to jump in coming months in Germany....some crop issues.

6.  1.4-million folks have received continued unemployment money....for five-plus years...of which, 37-percent are NON-Germans.  (N-TV this AM)

BREXIT Twist?

 This AM....I read through a piece....the UK gov't is going to lay out the idea.....that Russia got into 'meddling' for the 2016 BREXIT referendum.  Formal complaint?  Yeah.

Next?  Unknown.  I would imagine the PM and crew will say the referendum was not valid and they intend to rejoin the EU within weeks.  The EU?  They might be standing there in shock...never expecting this strategy.

Bigger shock?  Putin himself probably will admit the idea came up, and he voiced the idea that keeping the UK within the EU....was the primary goal....to make the EU ultra-weak.

Brits believing the Labour Party 'story'?  I would imagine that 40-percent of folks are ultra-skeptical of the Russian-BREXIT story.

Next?  Putin might admit that he did meddle to get the Labour Party win, and that it's not a valid government presently.

Twist....upon twist....upon twist.

Assassination Plan?

In the last hour.....Polish police report....having received information on a possible assassination attempt on Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk and deputy prime minister Kamysz.

No actual attempt...just a plan in progress (the way I read the hype).

Who behind it?  Unknown.

The two guys...slightly left-of-center?  Strangely...true.

Putin figures into it?  I wouldn't speculate on that (yet).  

The Four Votes Story

 Saxony-Anhalt (the state) held the Premier-President/Speaker of the House vote this past week.  They expected 44 votes (from AfD and BSW members).  

Well....the final vote was 48...meaning that four votes came from the SPD, CDU or Greens.

There is some speculation (no facts) that the four were CDU voters.....which angers the national CDU folks.

What the CDU told it's folks to vote?  Abstain....so it would be neither a yes-vote or no-vote.

So this brings up the national feelings from CDU-CSU voters....would they split themselves in some way and half of them be pro-AfD?  No proof or facts to support the ide

Could things get heated-up in 2028...with a early election, and the CDU introduces a Chancellor candidate that half the party isn't happy about?  I'd suggest this scenario is now possible.

These four guys keeping quiet?  That's the remarkable thing.  

My Humble Thoughts Over The BMW-AfD 'Rage'

To set the stage for this 'comedy'....back in the September 2026 state election in Saxony-Anhalt, the AfD (Alternative for Germany) won about 44-percen of the vote.

As of 6 Oct....Tobias Rausch (AfD Party) was elected President (Speaker) of the state parliament (Landtag).....with AfD and BSW votes.

Oddly enough....the AfD in Saxony-Anhalt is classified by the state intelligence agency as “gesichert rechtsextremistisch” (confirmed right-wing extremist).   This means...at the federal-level....they are being 'spied-upon' as a suspect extremist group.

As Speaker of the state parliament....Rausch is entitled to a leased 'limo' (typically a Mercedes, Audi or BMW).  BMW had previously submitted a leasing offer for the Landtag president’s official car.

On the same day Rausch was elected, BMW’s headquarters withdrew the offer. Adding to the epic saga....no other major German premium manufacturer has bid for this specific contract (Saxony-Anhalt).

So....rage has started up, and you can easily make the statement....30-percent of the German public is peeved over BMW....and I would imagine as Audi and Mercedes lack of actions are obvious....they also will be in the crapper.

Tesla offering a limo?  Well....they don't really make one.  Cyber-truck?  Well....you might make the case that the Cyber-truck is a awkward pick for limo-service.  Would Tesla offer a lease deal?  Maybe.

Other leased BMWs in the state?  No one keeps a record, but I would imagine....if you counted mayors, and state agencies....there's probably a minimum of 200.  Would the state declare all of them null and void?  It'd be fairly crazy but possible.

This peeving other non-AfD players?  Some BSW folks....FDP folks, have openly said this is a stupid mess to start up.  If you had 100,000 Germans get hyped-up negative and anti-BMW....you might create a economic problem with serious consequences.  

For reference, there are only three limo models in Germany: BMW 7 Series (incl. i7), Mercedes-Benz S-Class, and Audi A8.  

Could Saxony-Anhalt start a trend where all state vehicles are non-German (Toyota, Kai, etc)?  Well....it's best not to bring up this idea.  

'Ragebait'?

 Every October....the German-youth word of the year is selected.  This is the word that has come out of thin air....got hyped-up by German teens, and is nominated for 'notice'.  Ragebait is the 2026 word.

So what it means.....social media folks (influencers) hype something in a fake way....to get folks riled up (not necessarily kids)....so you click on it or get all chatty.

Once the German wife explained this to me....I asked....why limit it to social media.....German news and politicians also stage ragebait.  'OH NO' came the defensive position on the other folks.   News folks would never stage a ragebait episode (only influencers do that).

I paused....kept my mouth shut.

Kids getting smarter?  Yeah....I'd say they are.

Next Brandenburg State Election?

Not until the fall of 2029.  However, a poll was released this week.

Current numbers?

AfD at 40-percent.  SPD at 20 percent.  Greens at 7-percent.  CDU marginally at 9-percent. BSW at 7-percent.  Linke at 9-percent.

What would worry the SPD and CDU folks.....this is way early on polling and it's a bad sign of issues to come over the next two or three years.  I'd say it's possible that AfD could clear near 50-percent by 2029. 

Russia Story

I follow this Russia-Plague story a fair amount....maybe 30 min per day.

So this odd feature comes out yesterday....where they note the broken test tube, and what appears to have taken place over a couple of days.

There is some belief that after the tube broke....they went to a protocol where she needed to be tested.....over and over (say a couple of times per day).

There is some belief that a false-positive test (or two came), and the protocol came to occur....entered into a hospital unit, given propofol and then put on a ventilator.  Yes....the same protocol during COVID.

So there is some belief that she never had actual true-blue plague....just tests showing positive.

If this were true....seeing how screwed up things got....you probably don't want to admit the false-positive test and the way that you might have caused her death.

Lot of speculation?  Yeah....but once you establish the protocols.....questions would pop up

Simplifying This AfD-BMW 'Torrid' Tale

 Announced today....head 'boss' of the BMW 7-series executive class cars....said they would NOT provide a executive car for lease....to the new Premier-President of Saxony-Anhalt (new guy is AfD Party).  

Status-thing.....for most all Premier-Presidents (16 of them)...either Audi, Mercedes or BMW. 

So the AfD members (figure 30-percent of the nation)....have kinda said 'fine'.....suggesting they'd go to Elon's Tesla.  

Poor position for BMW?  I would say that it's a remarkable public position to take, and if you ever needed special help/funding....Saxony-Anhalt would not be the place to ask for help (in the future).

9 Oct 2026: Germany: 4 Stories

 1.  France Finance Minister told the UK folks....you can rejoin the EU 'anytime'...UK responded that a 2nd ballot might be coming up.  

2.  German insurance company (AOK) studied state of Hessen....says one out of eight adults have depression symptoms.

3.  This search in the Munich area for a Puma?  Continues on.  Personally, I think it's a Lynx.

4.  German smokes-tax going up....pack of 20....will be selling for 9.10 Euro (from 8 Euro currently). Will occur in 2027.

Possible US Base at Lithuania?

 Well...in the past month....Lithuania has offered the United States a permanent military base...suggesting they'd cover some/all costs involved.

Serious?  Prime Minister Mindaugas Sinkevičius made the comment on 6 October 2026 that Lithuania is ready to pay for a permanent U.S. base if Washington agrees to station troops there on a lasting basis. 

US looking over the idea?  Yes.

Past history?  Over seven years...around 1,000 US Army folks (armor battalion) have rotated yearly through the state.

The structure/area offered?  The Pabradė training area.  Max basing?  Probably in the 1,500 to 2,000 personnel.

History?  It's been a military site for roughly 125 years.....44,000 acres.

50 km from the Belarus border?  Yeah, that sums up closeness to Russia.  Swampy?  Probably about half of the military site....I'd put into the swampy category.  Awful sandy region.  

If you read though the chatter....what Lithuania wants is more of a permanent deal....rather than rotations. I don't see the US Army signing up for 2-year tours being the norm....just more rotational situations where you have 1,000 to 1,500 folks coming in for training purposes.  

Any Evidence of Riots in Germany?

 NO.  ZERO.

I probably read of a dozen social media types trying to suggest the riots had 'arrived'.....but all BS.

Preventative measures?  If you were a German student on some agenda with violence....the police will detain you....call the parents, and start measures over them.  

Also, you'd be playing into the hands of the AfD Party....suggesting that the CDU-CSU-SPD coalition were 'weak' on crime.

The Puma Hunt?

Over the past week....around Notzingermoos (Munich Airport region)....there's been a 'hunt' going on...for a suspected Puma.

Police and hunters involved.

Police involvement?  Well....they searched using helicopters, drones, ground teams, and nighttime thermal imaging.  So far....nothing

Local belief?  There's 'something'....maybe just a lynx or wild-cat.  

Some folks 'want' to belief in the Puma situation.  

10 Oct 2026: Germany: 6 Stories

 1.  First big AfD push for the fall period....asking for a comparison of German funding for Ukraine....compared against infrastructure, school building, and pension funding.  CDU/CSU, Greens and SPD don't really want to talk over this agenda.

It's roughly around 100-billion Euro that Germany sends to Ukraine, and AfD is suggesting that it's time to halt the practice.  

2.  Not in all cases....but in a majority....if you have a E-car and want to charge it up at a public spot....it often requires three apps, two charging cards, and the ability to study tariff tables. 

So yesterday....regional court in Munich said 'enough'....simplify the 'mess'.

3.  Berlin region.....car goes head-first into a group of four E-scooter riders.....killing all four. Accident occurred in evening hours (darkness), and the car was passing another vehicle....probably not seeing the approaching E-scooter riders until the last moment.

4.  RyanAir has quit the Bremen Airport....saying escalation of fees makes it non-profitable.

5.  In case you thought that the riots in France were the ONLY big deal....France is now noted as heavily indebted and has to raise almost 80 billion euros (about $100-billion) a year just for interest payments alone. 

Presently....France is currently in the same status as Greece was in 2007/2008.  

6.  Saxony-Anhalt speculation...in the vote to get the AfD candidate as Premier-President....it's believed that several CDU members of the state assembly....voted for the AfD guy (in secret).

BBC: Just Odd

Apparently, in the UK recently....there was a police raid on a 'gang' (undescribed)....with 3 folks detained.  Chief crime suggested?  Well....gang was people-smuggling and they had some Brit lawyers advising them....to help migrants pretend to be gay to get asylum in the UK.

I sat and pondered over this.  Fake-gay.

Trend thing, I imagine.

But apparently....once you fill out the sheet and claim gay-status....you are virtually guaranteed 'stay-status'.

How many are fake-gay?  It could be into the tens of thousands.  Trying to establish facts....are near impossible.

Oddly, back in Afghanistan, Iraq or Syria....playing the gay-card....was bound to get you into serious trouble.

In the UK....it's a plus-up thing.

The lawyers in this effort?  Some judge is going to task them to explain things, and it's bound to be something that they don't want to discuss.  

7 Oct 2026: Germany: 8 Stories

 1.  Saxony-Anhalt: State parliament done....led by AfD Party and BSW Party.  CDU....almost non-existent.  Greens declare they are the absolute opposition to AfD.

2.  This Siberia-Crisis chatter with the plague....getting hyped in Germany to some degree.  

3.  "Day of Rage" declared by SPD Party against AfD Party.  News folks helping the agenda, but probably 50-percent of public aren't buying into the protest agenda.

4.  INSA poll (newest)...puts CDU-CSU at 17.5-percent.  SPD at 14.5 percent.  Together....they equal strength of AfD Party.  

If you divided the CDU-CSU up....CDU by itself would be around 14-percent (among 15 states).  

5.  Russian Chief Prosecutor....announced that there are Nazi elements in the Baltic area....encompassing Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania.  To be honest, I generally include Sweden and Finland in the area as well.

BS?  Well...giving Putin the announcement....it'd open the door for drafting another 300k to 500k Russian guys for the Army and forward deploy them.  US/NATO reacting?  Yeah....but none of this really occurring in the next six months.

6.  France riots?  Continuing.

Classes cancelled for about 900 schools throughout France....mostly all highly urbanized areas.  Arrested on Tuesday: 488 activists/students.

7.  EU talking of bumping-up membership: Montenegro (likely to be entered by early 2028), Albania (has potential for 2028 as well), North Macedonia, Serbia, Bosnia/Herzegovina, Ukraine (2028 possibility), Moldovia (2028 likely), Georgia (least likely of the eight).

German enthusiasm for the eight?  Marginal.  

8.  BND former chief (Germany's CIA)....under investigation.  What seems to be key to the BS....after he retired....he wanted consulting work to enlarge his retirement.  So he had all this history and insider knowledge to 'market'.  The problem here....if you start digging into consultant work....there's probably 10,000 former police, politicians, news media folks, etc....who market themselves with insider info. If you watch ARD/ZDF (the public TV folks)....they use such folks to hype a agenda that the networks market. 

Three Stories

 First, over the hill from my village....lies a small town of 15,000 residents.  About two weeks ago....there was a reported 'accident'.....older couple.....ended up dead.  News explained almost nothing.

Wife comes up today...has a need for the plumber to come over.  Plumber's wife is handling the call....this dual death story came up in conversation.

So....the story.

Older guy (around 84)....gets into the car.  Cranks it...puts it into gear.  Wife is coming out of the house to the street....to enter the car.  Guy has a heart-attack....foot goes to the floor....runs over the wife completely (she's dead).  Hits at least two more cars on the street (major damage).  Vehicle finally stops.  Ambulance comes....guy goes to the hospital....dead three days later.  Plumber's wife is the daughter of the couple.

Second story.....national piece, former 'boss/CEO' of BND (Germany's CIA)....detained.  Gov't says he was passing German intelligence to another country.  Lot of hype......no one wants to utter the 'party' (way it sounds....Mossad /  Israel).

Third story....about three weeks ago....I brought up a rape case.  Translady accused of raping a 14-year old teenage girl.  Trans-gal....is a police-person.

Well....case wrapped up today....guilty.  Transwoman will be sent to a Munich prison....39 months of time.  There apparently was a deal....gal confessed to lessen the case potential.  Type of prison being sent to?  Men's operation.

Who Is Behind The France Riots?

 Over the weekend, this topic came up a bit.

What you have as a landscape....is a wave of high-school blockades and street clashes that began as student protests over school conditions and has partly turned into rioting in general (going beyond school structures). 

The general belief....the school riot stuff....started with students, and the next wave....non-school buildings....was mostly far-left political actors/activists.

The term 'hijacking-a-cause' gets uttered this AM.

Education Minister Édouard Geffray has said far-left and ultra-left activists (yeah, going beyond the normal far-left BS)....have infiltrated the movement.

I noted this AM....the Paris police chief Patrice Faure....said the original organizers no longer control it and spoken of “professional rioters".

All of this affecting the spring France Presidential election?  Yes.

Odds of the riots continuing this week?  If they do....the police probably will figure out the activists involved, and detain them.  If you ask me....probably 60-percent of the public see some reason to bring in far-right political agenda folks....to fix the problem.

5 Oct 2026: Germany: 7 Stories

 1.  Last night's (Sunday) Greece-Germany soccer game?  0-0.  I watched around 20 minutes of it....decent play....Greece probably shocked some folks....played exceptionally well.

2.  Focus health expert....advising that you can avoid sugar cravings...by snacking healthy stuff (nuts, fruit, etc) every four hours (in between).

3.  Berlin-City Linke Party says they hope to conclude talks with SPD/Greens by Wed night....to form a coalition for the city-government.

4.  BMW is in same path as VW....cutting jobs/cost.

5.  Interesting opinion piece via WELT.....giving German 16-year-old's the right to vote....when dozens of other functions say maturity requires a age of 18 (driver's license, ownership of guns, purchase of booze, etc).

6.  Oktoberfest ended yesterday.  All-time record on visitors.....7.4-million guests.

7.  Winter-tire week for me....dragging the wife's Audi to a tire shop on Friday....to put the winter tires on. It took me years to accept this German idea.....winter/summer tires over all-weather tire habit (of the US).  

Greece, Reparations and the Marshall Plan

In the summer of 1930....the best description of the German economy was "heading-toward-failure".  Unemployment was surging and business operations were stalled.  Banks were generally on the edge of failure. The public perception for the September election in 1930....was to garner support for the Nazi Party.  They would pick up around eighteen percent of the national vote.....mostly as a protest-type vote and in hopes of a recovery for the economy.

By the summer of 1932, the Nazi Party had established enough clout to control national politics in Germany.  With the economy still in a marginal status....the plan head involved two massive areas of public expenditures (for the military industry and for the national infrastructure....roads, state buildings and bridges).  For the finance office to cover the growing debt....they used revenue taxes and a new gimmick of a national "I-O-U" allotment (Mefo bills, as they are commonly referred to).

The package going to the public from 1932 on....was that socialism was the general solution to the public problems with the economy.  

Unemployment did gradually resolve itself.....mostly because of public projects and the military industry.  So, in the minds of most....the Nazi Party was delivering on their promise.

Somewhere in the mix by 1936....exports from Germany going out had declined by roughly ten-percent.  Imports had climbed approximately ten-percent.  You can guess the general effect on economy....it was dragging Germany down.

Rationing arrived in 1939, as Germany was marching across various neighbor countries.  If it hadn't been for the military situation.....most of the public would have asked why rationing was necessary and if there wasn't more to the economic woes than publicly stated by the government.

In the spring of 1941....both Germany and Italy arrived in Greece.  Some Greeks may try to deny Italian involvement.....but the Italians were there as well.  In fact, the original invasion of Greece was around October of 1940.....six months prior....where the Italians found the Greeks capable of defending against a marginal Italian force.  With the Germans assisting....there were no issues.

Military-wise.....roughly forty thousand within the region of Athens died of starvation, and somewhere in the range of another fifty thousand Greeks died in conflict with the Italians or Germans.

Somewhere in the middle of this invasion....the Germans arrive to the Greek National Bank and want a loan.  Oddly, this is written out, with zero-percent interest on the document, and Germans walk away with the bulk of the bank's money.  It should be noted.....this was not robbery....documentation exists and the amount agreed upon.

When the Greeks today talk of the loan, it's a factual piece of information.  You can sum the loan up to around eleven billion Euro in today's money.....with zero-percent interest figured into the scheme.

When the war finished, Germany and Japan were both finished off economically.  American historians went back and reviewed the lessons learned from WW I.  The Germans had huge reparations owed to England and France.  It unsettled the recovery of Germans from 1919....to the election period of 1930.  Fascism grew out of the reparation story.  In order to prevent that.....the US enacted what would be called the Marshall Plan.  If anyone in Europe had a reparations angle....they'd come to the US and avoid engaging Germany into another mess.  The US....would pay for everyone's reparations.

I know.....it's hard to believe and no one really talks about this angle to the Marshall Plan....but it was about preventing WW III or the recovery of the German fascism agenda.  Between this.....the division of Germany, and the US troops staying in Germany....things would be ironed out and prevent something stupid from happening.

What did the Greeks get from the Marshall Plan?  Roughly 3.5 billion dollars between 1947 and 1951 (in today's dollars).  Did the Greeks of 1947 understand this deal?  Yes.  Are these gentlemen all dead today?  Yes.  Do any of the political figures of Greece today grasp the Marshall Plan?  It's difficult to say if any of the top twenty Greek leaders can give a simple eight-line explanation to the Marshall Plan and it's effect on the Greek economy.

Around 1960, the German government came back and offered a settlement on each Greek killed and damages caused.  The Greeks accepted that deal.  Do any of the Greek leaders of today remember that arrangement?  Probably not.  Did any of the victim money go to actual families in Greece?  Probably not.

Did any Communist country in Europe get Marshall  Plan funding?  No...that was a key feature of the Soviet monopoly over eastern Europe.

One of the odd features of the German recovery after WW I (if you even desire to refer to it as a "recovery")....was by 1925......Germany had gone on a turbo 'binge' of borrowing money.  They were deep into debt within a few years.  This was all done because the government was stuck with an economy that was stalled and unable to recover.  Flooding the market with borrowed money, they gave the public and business the impression of a full recovery in process.....WHEN it wasn't recovering.

In some ways....Greece since 2008 has done the exact same thing as Germany after WW I.  Greece might have been already walking in the borrowed money scheme back twenty and thirty years ago.....but since 2008.....they've gone to various levels beyond anything that the Germans schemed up in 1925.

The reparations game here?  What happened after the Trojan War (1194 BC)?  What happened after the Greece-Punic War in 600 BC?  What happened after the Greece-Persia War (499 BC)?  What happened in the Social War of 357 AD?  What happened in 334 with Alexander the Great and his Greek Army invading various neighbors?  What happened in the Greek Civil Wars of 1823 (phase one and phase two)?   The sad truth is that Greece has had over sixty various wars or campaigns over the past three-thousand years.  Greece ought to be paying for reparations of various wars to their neighbors, if they take this reparations game serious.

Security Upgrade

 I walked around Wiesbaden mid-city this afternoon.  There's a small city park....two war memorials 'hangout' for drunks/alcoholics.

Police added a security 'trailer' with lights/cameras in recent days.

Interesting unit....must be five or six cameras on the tower platform.

Around 10 AM....if you walk by....there's always between fifteen and twenty-five folks (men/women) on their first beer of the morning.  By mid-afternoon....most are on their fifth or sixth beer.  

I thought it was fairly safe...other than drunks arguing with drunks....never any violent BS.

Where This Sudden Call For Elections In Spain Might Go?

If you use current polls (August)...the center-right PP Party is in first place....and a PSOE (Sanchez left-of-center crew) majority within reach.  Three points separate them.

Rumored election day?  29 November now.

In the control of seats?  PP (right-of-center) is figured to take around 139 seats, and VOX (right-wing) would take near 64 seats.  You need 176 seats to have coalition.  The 4th and 5th place parties?  They'd take a max of ten seats (not really figured into anything).

So there are three things falling into play....Sanchez as PM....is probably gone. With all this migration-hype....you can figure some type of massive change is in the pipeline....destined for January-February action.  Finally, a lot of the left-of-center social promises of the past decade....probably are going to dissolve.

If you asked me the problems in this election?  I'd say unemployment for youth, housing issues, migration, safety-security, and dynamics of tourism overwhelming 'reality'.  

Could the Sanchez crew pull out a miracle of 4-to-6 points plus?  Yes....if they were to hype the housing crisis and fixing unemployment numbers.  

Not Front-Page News, But.....

In the past week....a 28-year old Russian gal....lab-worker....out of Irkutsk (Siberia, Russia)...died of pneumonic plague. In case you were curious....once you show the first symptom or two....you need to be on a treatment program....in the first 24 hours.  Otherwise, within a couple of days...you will die.

So regionally....the Russian authorities have reacted.  They figure about 200 folks had some contact with the gal, and have them 'detained' (held in isolation).  If you do the numbers....if nothing shows up by the 7th day....they probably will be released.

Were the 200 the only folks who might have been in contact?  They don't seem to say.

What I found interesting?  At the stage of being 'bad-off'....she was admitted to a Covid-center.  Upon entering....her health worsened in a matter of hours....with the staff putting her on a ventilator.  Shortly after that....she died.

The general belief?  I spent about two hours this AM looking over the story, the pneumonic plague business, statistical data.  If no one else comes up with issues by next Friday (the 9th)....odds are in favor of everyone getting relaxed and assuming this doesn't turn into a serious event with 20-odd people in some detention situation and death spiral.

Worst case scenario?  By next weekend....the city of Irkutsk (Siberia) gets locked-down and no one allowed to enter/leave.  

Where This 'France-Has-Fallen' Episode Leads Onto?

 First, some facts. France has about 58,100 schools and secondary establishments under the education system (roughly 47,400 primary schools, 7,000 colleges, and 3,700 lycées and related sites in 2024.

Using the education system statistics....the number of buildings in crappy/poor/dilapidated condition....reaches around 10-percent (6,000 listed).  Oddly, this is based off not only building structure and hygiene....but safety/security.

If you quizzed German authorities....their numbers are in the same shape.  It's not just a French problem.

The riots being led by kids only?  No....teachers are in the mix, along with activists.

More of a urban problem (for the riots) than in rural regions?  That's been noticed by journalists and commented upon.  

National list of the fire-damage on schools?  No....that's another odd thing.  You can go city-by-city and gather-up a list, but the national authorities aren't discussing a national problem/agenda.  I asked AI to assemble the data....the come-back was around 100 structures (out of 60,000).

Vandalism and attacks on buses/trams/trains?  In the past day or two....yeah, those were targeted as well.

Macron's crew in reaction?  I would suggest they are trying to just let the 'kids' go as far as necessary, and hope they run out of 'passion'.  It does seem like the activists/'bosses' are being noted, detained and likely charged-up.

Affecting the Presidential election in the spring of 2027?  YEAH....that is my big-take-away from the whole episode.  Most French people are looking at the agenda and destruction....thinking some extreme action is now required by the National Rally Party (Le Pen).

Any of this bleeding over into Germany?  So far....no.  German police would be fairly quickly to react....detain....putting parents into the position of being responsible.  If your kid did damage....there's a bill to pay later.  

New Pollical Poll

 National poll:

AfD leads at 30-percent (up 1).....with CDU-CSU at 18-percent (down 1).  Greens at 14-percent.  SPD at 14-percent.  Linke at 10 percent.  

Unrest in France (Presidential election starts in April 2027), and serious chance of Spanish nat'l election being set-up by end of 2026?  Yeah.

Both would have an affect on German numbers....likely adding 2-to-3 points to AfD (meaning the CDU-CSU gives them half of the votes), and the Greens likely moving up to 18-percent (SPD losing some support).  

The normal national German election would be March 2029.  Unless some economic numbers turn....I think Merz and the CDU will be under pressure to collapse the gov't coalition in 2027.  

This public view of France, Spain and Germany?  It mostly revolves around housing issues, budget/finance woes, migration spiral, unemployment (particularly of the youth) and deportation problems.   

In the case of Spain....if a election is called for....it'll be a right-of-center win.  In the case of spring of 2027....National Rally (the right-wing guys) will be the likely winner.  In the case of Germany....while AfD might win....they can't form a coalition....so you'd end up with the Greens partnering with the SPD and CDU.

3 Oct 2026: Germany: 6 Stories

 1.  This France youth-riot BS?

Across most of Europe (not just France)....you find a mix of nice-kept schools, and crappy schools which needed renovation already twenty years ago.  So the kids and teachers are disgruntled enough....to trigger riots and burn some structures down.  Unhelpful?  Lot of French voters are looking toward a right-wing 'solution'.

2.  Odds of Spain calling for national election?  I'd put the figure at a 70-percent chance.

3.  Unification Day in Germany....national holiday.  As you might notice....other than politicians....almost no one celebrates the day or makes a big deal over it.

4. Interesting article in WELT this AM....in a massive chaotic event....in terms of civil defense, your survival rate depends on the town itself and Germans are on a uneven national platform....where city to city....things are different.

5. Galeria chain (like a Macey's brand) in serious financial woes.  

6.  If you asked me to rate a early German federal election.....at the point where the CDU-CSU has fallen to 17-percent in polling, and the Greens pick up some SPD-voters...reaching 18-percent....it's likely time to have a national election.

Yeah, AfD would have near 30-percent in voters but be unable to form a coalition.  You'd have the Greens as a coalition-builder.....with the SPD and CDU folks as junior partners.  Disgruntled CDU voters would likely move to AfD voting patterns after this. 

The Diesel Problem We Should Not Discuss

 I was reading through a summary this AM....between 2009 and 2024 (15 years)....throughout Europe....around 30 different refineries shut-down.  Various reasons given....some probably could have upgraded but country laws made it unwise or of zero profit sense.

So....in the last year or two....you add up the Iran-US 'war'....then the Ukraine-Russia war.....and the China sudden policy not to export diesel fuel...yes, there is a crisis about to go from a '1' to a '7' (my index), and trucking deliveries probably will be a EU problem over the next ninety days.

The US or Venezuela coming to the rescue?  Well....President Trump has said to France/Germany....open the diesel reserves that they have.

Iran itself in a marginal production phase?  That's the side-story....where trucks, buses and farm equipment will be sitting there...unable to move because of limited fuel issues.

Dental 'Options'

 I had a pre-brief for dental work for next week.  

My dentist added two 'services'.

First, he has one morning per week....where a botox-expert comes in and gives you 'lip' service.  

Second, he has gotten the services of a acupuncture expert, and one afternoon per week......you can come in and get 'pins-and-needles'.

I paused over this.  This is stuff that my dental-insurance WON'T cover.  If you asked me....90-percent of Germans would flat out say 'NO' to both services (my humble thoughts).  Finally, if you asked me over who might go for the services....mostly German trophy-wives.  

2 Oct 2026: Germany:8 Stories

 1.  These France school fires?  No national list....but the news reports regionally....at least ten schools were lit, and are in 'degraded' condition.

The one odd factor....it gets national attention, and hypes the brand of National Rally Party.  

2.  Soccer: Germany defeated Serbia last night....big deal for Coach Klopp.  ZDF carried game....spent a lot of time after the game talking to players (hyping the change in attitude).

3.  Berlin-City crew wanted the Görlitzer Park area closed at night (major drug sales point in the city).  Judges got involved....says 'NO'....you can't close down the park.  The stumbling point?  Judges say the City Senate has no authority over use of 'closure-rule'.  

Oddly, there's a counter-group with a fence-free agenda.....wanting the park 'as is'....even if taken over by dopers.

4.  Watched a WELT piece....suggesting escalation of Russian sabotage on European sites.

5.  New poll.....only 10-percent of Germans happy with Chancellor's performance.

6.  Some belief that gas prices (reduced since yesterday) will jump 20-percent up over the next month....over Iran woes.

7.  Three guys arrested in NRW (1x German, 2x Syrians)....for terror-planning....yesterday.

8.  Noticed the term 'doom trolling' yesterday....has to do with AI woes and potential threat.  Lot of Germans getting hyped-up over threat of AI. 

Observations

 1.  January 2027....the Deutschland-Card....giving you free access to bus, tram and 2nd-class travel throughout Germany (each month)....goes up to 66.80 Euro.  As long as you don't need high speed ICE travel...it's a bargain deal.

2.  Over the hill from me....old grocery is shutting down, and renovation taking place.  Once complete.....it will be a 24-hour operation....365 days a year.  Yes, even at 1 AM....you go over....swipe your card, and it gives you access to a mini-mart (figure a 50 ft by 30 ft store-front, essentials).  Radical change for Germans.  Store will only be manned 6 days a week....from 7AM to 7 PM....rest of the day....automated system and cameras in place to monitor things. 

3.  Focus journalist went out and interviewed 300 Germans who 'want' to exit Germany. At the end of these conversations....he found that most listed conditions (perfect country)....and they can't really find such a place.

My wife (German) has the same mentality.  

4.  Chancellor gave a talk this AM....says 'no' to sugar-tax idea of SPD.  Temp-hold going on.

5.  Talk this AM over BER (Berlin's new airport).  When it first got suggested (20 years ago)...it was said that around 340 million Euro was the cost.

Presently....open and operational....with some improvements still on the books....the cost is at 2.5-billiion Euro to finish.

6.  After a pretty dry September (one ten-day period of shows off/on for 2nd-half of August)....weather folks are finally talking about ten to fifteen days of rain in October. Extremely dry year for 2026.

7.  Small town here in my state of Hessen....police are doing a investigation.  Some kid on a E-scooter....crashed while the police were trying to pull him over.  Cops say it was getting up to 80 kilometers per hour.  

1 Oct 2026: Germany: 6 Stories

 1.  Discounted fuel started today.....I paid 2.03 per liter (E-10) this morning.

2.  Focus business article: You as a single German, because of 2026 inflation....need to find 700 'new' Euro to cover your expenses for the year.

3.  Lot of chaos brewing in France....national finance issues shaking up the voting public.

4.  Fairford incident?  National UK leadership saying there was a terror-act of some sort, with Iran involved.  Police?  Criminal act with fuel (diesel) being the target.  Fairly confusing.

5.  Pretty sure now.....one out of four jobs with VW....will go away.

6.  Massive police raid from yesterday (2,200 German police involved)....going against corruption in the cleaning industry of Germany.