My Final Five Thoughts On Poland Coup Failure

 1.  Its just odd...I watched a good bit of video of the riot-police at the court building.  None of the helmets had numbers....none of the jackets had numbers.  

Explanation? I suspect they were training-school 'kids' for the police.  

2.  Judge Anna Korwin-Piotrowska....the gal who tried to establish herself as the chief of the court....without any valid status?

I would suggest that she will lose her law license within six weeks....admit to stress issues...enter some clinic, and never have charges drawn up.

3.  Tusk, the PM?  I think he will stick around and be a 'face' for the coup.....as the election campaign starts up early next year. Compared to the last election...Tusk probably loses nearly half of the votes as anticipated.

4.  Meme of the year?  There's a 8-second shot....President is entering the court-building and Korwin-Piotrowska (the lawyer gal) is attempting to block him and say she's in charge.  President merely pushes her out of the way like a bag of marsh-mellows. 

5.  Who planned this?  Totally unknown, and may never be known.

The Oddest Three Scenarios For The Poland Crisis?

 I've spent two hours this AM....reading through commentary by Poles, and non-Poles...over the coup-attempt. Some weird beliefs.

First....one guy suggested that Putin rigged up this crisis....getting Tusk and crew convinced that they could run successful coup....then fail the coup.....getting the President of Poland into a better overall position....to somehow benefit a pro-Putin landscape.

Second, someone suggested that the President of Poland was never on the plane to Africa....that he knew ahead of time of the coup.

Finally, someone suggested this planned by the President....quietly....to get Tusk convinced it was a great idea, and now screw up the election chances for Tusk and crew for October 2027.   

Five Thoughts Over Poland 'Chaos/Crisis'

1. This AM....I noted that Deputy Inspector General of Police Tomasz Michułka got mentioned.  He's the police 'boss'....who apparently had the riot police units to be issued automatic weapons against Polish civilians...if they defended the Constitutional Tribunal (court).

I just DON'T see police being that pumped-up to shoot anyone.  

2.  At the end of this crisis....probably by the middle of Saturday....there's likely fifty-odd gov't folks (politicians and government bosses)....who have to exit Poland in a hurry.  I don't see Germany that eager to accept them.  

3.  If you asked me over public perception.....maybe 25-percent are full-up charged-up....to have a coup like this.  Opposing them (anti-coup)....is probably 25-percent.

So then you have fifty-percent of folks....who shake their head.  They don't have an understanding of how a banana-republic-like situation developed like this, and see Tusk as dimwitted for approving this plan.

4.  A lot of non-Poles around Europe....are viewing this coup-like situation and wondering....where did this all start, and is there history of this?

Well....Feb of 1981....the last coup in Europe (Spain).  It was also a failed effort.

5. Politically, Tusk has damaged his party and it's image....a lot.  Oct 2027.....next parliament election.  

31 Oct 2026: Germany/Europe: 6 Stories

 1.  Natural gas goals for 'storage'....in Germany....80 percent for most storage facilities....however....45 percent for the facilities in Bad Lauchstädt, Frankenthal, Hähnlein, Rehden, Stockstadt and Uelsen.

If this were a moderate winter....there's enough.  If it's a severe winter....there's issues brewing.

2.  Poland.  Fairy dramatic 'theater' unfolding.  National Court building surrounded by police, under orders from PM Tusk, and his appointed 'supreme-judge'....while the President was flying for a visit to some African country.  Word gets to the President....he turns the plane around, and lands in Warsaw.

Tusk's judge basically gave a 30-day time-out on the President/VP.  

Police?  They allowed the President to enter the court building, and so far...nothing much else has occurred (8 AM news).

What I'd suggest....police for the most part...vote right-of-center and I doubt that this was laid out in full detail yesterday afternoon.  I expect most police to depart for home, and Tusk's 'theater-antics' unravel over most of the day.  Whether he stays in Poland or has to flee....I'm of the mind that he's not likely to stay.

3.  31 Oct....riots in Germany?  There's a lot of hype....French-stye riots likely to start up today.  

4.  Some issue brewing....false German language test certificate now noted.  Migrants paying for the fake copy....to get 'status'.....but can marginally speak/read/write German.

5.  VW is apparently halting development of the E-Golf vehicle....saying they can't really afford to go further.

6.  German, Canada and Norway....financing Patriot missiles (500) for Ukraine.  Amount of cost? 2.1-billion Euro.

30 Oct 2026: Germany: 9 Stories

 1.  Linke Party 'boss' from Berlin-City operations....gave a talk, and basically admitted that a fair amount of local control/support....is directed from Hamas enthusiasts, and things might be seen as 'damaging' (my word, not hers).

2.  ZDF's (public TV, Channel 2 in Germany) closes down it's humor show....'Royale' on 18 Dec 2026....after six years.

To be honest....out of the five episodes that I've watched over the period (maybe around 190 produced)....about 80-percent of the humor of the show was driven off of politics....mostly slamming either AfD or the CDU-CSU folks....occasionally against the Greens or SPD.

The harsh reality is that the fan-base has downsized a good bit over the last year or two.

3.  Former German President Joachim Gauck gave a interview....blunt talk....basically saying that Germany can't continue to finance the welfare-state if the economy is such a poor state (as currently). 

4.  WELT article this AM....Gen-Z crowd gets nothing.  Dan Alphonso writes a pretty straight-forward piece....that all this control and climate policy demanded by the youth of Germany....has resulted in prices for energy and lifestyles expanding....everything costing more.  These youth....now in their mid-to-late 20's....now grumbling....how did this all happen?

5.  Berlin police say they are prepared for demonstrations/riots for tomorrow....suggestion is that France riots will occur in metro areas of Germany.

6.  Deutschland Card (monthly Bahn/bus ticket) on 1 January 2027....goes to 66.80 Euro a month.  Only thing you can't use it for....travel on ICE (high speed rail).  Still a pretty good deal.

7.  Audi-Germany says their yearly profit at this point....is 95-million Euro for 2026.  Roughly 90-percent less than time of 2025.  Crisis talk openly discussed.

8.  N-TV piece.....German hospitals in a financial crisis.  Some expect reduction in staff to be the only way ahead.

9.  I was in Wiesbaden yesterday....two hours walking around the shopping district.  Got approached by the youngest beggar ever....some teenage gal (figure 13/14 years old).  

Germany And Suicides

 2025 was a record year (at least over 25 years)....with 11,000 reported.

The female numbers?  Up 18-percent over 2024.

Half of all numbers....were folks 65-and-older.  Men made up almost three-quarters of the numbers.

Cause or trigger.....not fully understood.

If you were asking me....there's simply a large number of retired folks with crappy pensions, and no way to survive.

Three Observations

 1.  VW/Germany....posted a billion-euro loss in the third quarter here in 2026.

CFO comments this AM....blame goes to the boom in E-cars....VW earns significantly less with them than with combustion engines.

If trend were to continue?  In this weakened state, it's possible that they (VW) gets bought by someone. 

The odd story?  Tesla seems to be doing well.

2.  Saturday (31st, Halloween)....massive riots predicted in urban centers around Germany....youth-related, like the France riots.  

Does Germany have the funding to react like France and pump billions more into education?  Not really....unless you raise taxation, and reduce competitive nature of commerce/industry.  

3. In the state of Hessen (where I live)....someone did a survey of happiness with students.  Oddly,  just over half of the kids stated that they often or sometimes sleep less or worse because of studying or homework late into the night. 

Almost two-thirds said that this study effort....sometimes leaves them too little time for hobbies and leisure activities.

Around half of those in the survey...complained the buses were over-loaded. I won't really disagree with this.  From 7 AM to 8 AM....you really don't want to take the bus from my village.

29 Oct 2026: Germany: 5 Stories

 1.  Saxony-Anhalt.  CDU Party members (state-level)....are tasked to swear under oath....how they voted for President of the state parliament group. The belief is....because of numbers noted....some CDU guy/gal voted for AfD.  

Just a suspicion....if you asked a hundred CDU-CSU voters....their feelings over AfD....maybe 20-percent might see some reason to vote for AfD agenda items.

2.  EU....has said bluntly...no associate-membership deal for Canada.  All the hype?  Dissolved.

Odds of coming up again?  I'd say a 100-percent chance.  One of the funny issues....they've never defined what exactly comes with the 'associate' label.  

3.  Paris-court says 'no'....you can't establish a curfew on teenagers.

4.  There will be a meeting of Putin, Trump and Zelensky....in the works.  Does not appear that European countries will be invited to participate.

Odds of a 'deal'?  I'd give it only a 25-percent chance.  

5.  Study complete.....one in five young Germans (age 15 and up) use disposable vapes.