Friday, May 31, 2013

The Numbers Game

The Germans finally accomplished a complete census.  To be honest, there hadn't been one in at least twenty years (going back to the mid-80's).

Strangely enough....they've lost a few folks, and they finally agreed to change the official population of the country down to 80.2 million.

We also have to be honest about that 80.2 million.  They wouldn't even have that number....unless you count up the foreigners inside Germany.  The numbers indicate roughly eight percent of the nation....aren't really German, but they count anyway.

So only with the help of six million foreigners....does Germany reach 80 million, which is a status of sorts, if you think about it.

Germans leaving?  It won't appear in this census, but there's probably twenty thousand Germans a year who pack up and leave (Canada, Australia, other EU countries, and even the US).  People looking for better economic conditions, a fresh start in life, or just wanting something different.....they leave.

A decline?  In some ways....yes.  German social thoughts tend to lead toward one-child families for the most part.  There are exceptions....but there's no real growth in Germany.....except for more foreigners coming in (Russians, Turks, Africans, etc).

More foreigners in relationship to urban areas?  Well....they haven't put out the map and complete numbers to show how things relate.  I might have thoughts that urban areas are like magnets, and the rural areas of Germany are suffering more from declining population than metropolitan areas.

Where does this lead?  For the next twenty years....it's a limited change.  More foreign nurses, more IT people from Spain and other EU countries, more Russians arriving, and probably a larger segment in urban areas of Muslims.  At some point in fifty years....I would imagine the German population will be down to around sixty million, and the foreigners will be closer to twenty million.

Yeah, Germany won't be Germany.  Don't worry....we are at least a hundred years away from Germanstan.

Friday, May 24, 2013

The Olive Oil Container Ban?

I blogged this a week ago....how the EU had put up new rules banning the decades-long practice of putting olive oil and vinegar at tables throughout Europe in glass containers, and replacing it with plastic containers that you had to ask for....a disposable solution for a problem that did not exist.

Today, the EU admitted they screwed up, and tossed out the olive oil container ban.  Gone.

It took around two weeks for sense to fall upon the EU representatives, and force them to reconsider.

I admit, it wasn't exactly front-page news in Germany.  I doubt if more than two or three million Germans really had heard about the ban, and understood the whole thing.  The German restaurant owners?  Oh, all of them understood it immediately.

So peace can now descend on Brussels, and the EU crowd can look at the next mess to create.  Maybe requiring all dogs to have GPS-tracking devices?  

Thursday, May 23, 2013

The Fracking Beer

There's a German brewer who came out with a public statement....begging Chancellor Merkel not to allow fracking in Germany....because it would spoil the sweet pure water supply.

Their concern is basically a 500-year purity standard that has stood the test of time.  They want real tests concluded, before anything moves forward.  This purity business?  Well....sometime in the spring of 1516.....over in Ingolstadt.....Duke Wilhelm IV stood up and just said there had to be pure beer, with some standards.  Naturally, this was done in Bavaria, and folks just said sure, and it's been a standard ever since.

There can only be yeast, hops, malt, and pure water in beer.....end of the story.  This pure water business is a pretty big deal.

Course, here's the thing.....there are some brewery operations that use special spring water.  And there are some which use local city water, from an approved spring-like source.  The purity deal?  It might be questionable....if you got down into the nuts and bolts of where the water came from.

The fracking stuff?  I don't think any leading political figure in Germany is anywhere near the point where they will agree on fracking.  It might be ten years away, as a minimum.  The driving force then....will be gas selling at three Euro a liter, and Germans will be demanding some type of action.

How much oil could they frack?  That's the curious thing.  There are private survey episodes going on in Germany, and I seriously that they'd ever tell the German government exactly how much is out there, or the best locations to drill.

So back to beer....don't worry.  German beer is going to stay the same, and this standard will last another 500 years easily.

Saturday, May 18, 2013

Elvis the Red

Germany always has these odd Americans who show up, and become part of the German culture.

So this is the story of the 'red Elvis'.

Once upon a time...there was a guy who was destined to be the "second" Elvis...which may be a shock to some of you. Dean Reed, was his name. He was born in 1938, in Colorado....and moved around the western part of the US on numerous occasions.

Eventually, at 18, he wound up at the University of Colorado and showed talent as a musician. He made one record...."Once Again", for Imperial Records.

Dean felt he would get a big contract....but nothing came out of this.

Eventually....he got a minor contract with Capital Records (1958) and they wanted to make him into a teen idol...so he made some decent songs and launched a minor career. He even appeared on some TV programs in minor roles.

His career wasn't going anywhere....so Dean took off to Argentina on a tour....and found that his career was burning hot there. He even exceeded Elvis there. He made several albums, movies, and had a TV show of his own in Buenos Aires. Somewhere along the way....Dean started to see things in a left-slant fashion. He started to talk on poverty, and government mismanagement. He even got to the point of being anti-US and performing shows in poor neighborhoods and prisons (kinda like Johnny Cash in a way).

So his popularity grew greatly....to the point that the official political machine of Argentina decided that Dean wasn't helpful to them anymore and more of a pain. So in 1966....he got kicked out.

Luckily for Dean, he ended up in Rome....doing some TV commercials and cheap western movies. Dean branched out a bit, and got in good with the socialist crowd of Rome....and started tours of eastern Europe and the Soviet Union. They loved Dean because he was so pure socialist.

Around 1973, Dean moved to East Germany and was set to become the only living legend rock star of the nation. They needed one bad, and his act was perfect. Dean actually got hired on and started to write and perform in various films....which all were set to great socialist values. He even branded himself a Marxist.....than that stupid title of communist....just to be different.

All along the way, Dean would talk clearly negative on US politics but always held of a great love for America....with a few songs made for his love of the old country. Amazingly enough....he never renounced his US citizenship and actually filed tax returns while living in the East Germany.

Somewhere along the line in 1986....the 60 Minutes crowd showed and did a interview with Dean. Dean was all hot to defend the Berlin Wall, the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan and talked on and on about negatives of American policy. It was a great moment for Dean. After the show aired the interview...Dean got huge amounts of hate mail from the US. A lot of folks branded him a traitor....but some went past that and insisted that he was a mediocre performer who would have never gotten this far in the US.

Dean died six weeks later at his home in East Berlin. To be truthful...it was a accidental drowning...although some have suggested that after the letters came in and accused him of being mediocre....he was consuming a fair amount of booze. His family even hinted of this being a state-sponsored killing by the US government. The best guess is that Dean probably grasped the meaning of the term mediocre and it bothered him greatly.

So that is the story of the Red Elvis and his tragic (mediocre) end. A lot of eastern Germans today, still remember the guy....because he was the only true rock star of their era...and they can't believe that no one in the west has ever heard of the guy. Its kinda funny in way, but tragic in another. But it shows...an American kid can make something of himself, even in Argentina or East Germany....even with mediocre talent.

That's true Americana.

Saturday, May 11, 2013

It's Tough Being a German

This is my list of ten things that really lay out the character and dynamics of a natural-born German.  Remember....I'm not a German, and just an outsider looking in.  And I might be a bit sarcastic at times....with cause and reason.  German personality anchors?  Yeah....and these don't drag much.

First, if you are a German who has made it through college and university....you've walked a mighty fine line, suffered some long hours of study, and didn't get much of a chance to booze it up or party your way through college.  You had to get on the right trail by age ten....stay on that trail....make every single high school teacher happy, and pass tests.  When you went off to college....it's not like going to some party school in Florida, or taking lax classes via some nickel-and-dime college....they pretty much demanded your grades stay at a certain level, and at the end....they are as smart as they claim.  Don't ever misjudge the value of a German education.

Second, rules are rules.  If you ever went looking for a society that works extra hard to obey rules, this is the crowd at the top.  It doesn't matter if we are talking garbage rules, driving rules, parking rules, ink-pen rules at school, dog-walking rules, or drinking rules....you'd best expect dedication and obsession to carrying out the rules.  Looking for German rule-breakers?  Start walking...it'll be a long walk.

Third, when they talk about vacations being necessary...it's not a joke.  Most of German society need a release valve.  They need that week in the summer and week in the winter.  They need that ten days off to just lounge around the house and put up wallpaper.  They enjoy a long walk in Bavaria, and drinking a chilled beer along the side of a Alpine retreat.  When you get to the shock of six weeks of vacation a year for the normal worker.....ask what they do.  It's not all fantastic trips.  Some just want some time to sit on a bench along the river and gaze at boats going up and down the Rhine.  Just some time to chill.....because they take work awful damn serious.

Fourth, when you stop at some little restaurant in the middle of nowhere....ordering a fine plate, and a chilled beer, and it comes out to be the finest little meal you've had in years....don't take it as being something new or different.  People run restaurants throughout Germany, and they have pretty high expectations.  The locals just expect it.

Fifth, and don't let it bother you....but Germans are a bit like cats, curious to the ninth degree.  If you bought a new car....what'd you pay?  If you went on vacation....where?  If you are dating....who is it?  Some Americans might take this as being questions by some Gestapo agent....but it is their tendency.  They want explanations.  They'd like to know the whole story.  Gossip is juicy....even if it's just some one-line sentence about someone they don't even know.

Sixth, they'd like to fix problems.  Most German guys have a decent garage and tool chest.  Most German women have 366 different kitchen devices.  A tree has fallen in the backyard?  Watch for it to be cut up and removed within twenty-four hours.  Roof messed up?  Watch for the roofer to be over within a week.  Kid lost his fancy ink pen for school? Watch for mom to have another one by 7AM tomorrow morning.  Germans have an obsession to fix what needs to be fixed.

Seventh, high expectations are expected.  If you go out to buy a new TV....it's usually a high-class more expensive brand.  Germans expect what they buy to work, and to last.  Same for the washer, the dryer, the car, the refrigerator, and even living room furniture.  They pay more, and expect more.  Oh, they still hunt for the best deal....but quality is a higher priority.

Eighth, dogs and cats in Germany?  They are part of the family.  If the vet says Sparky needs a 2k-Euro operation....the owner will find the 2k Euro to perform the operation.  They take their dogs into pubs and restaurants   They travel with their dogs.  Elvis the cat....gets prime treats...365 days out of the year.  Elvis gets a fancy cat tree that takes up ten percent of the living room.  Don't ever suggest to a German that they put too much into their ownership of pets.

Ninth, I would be the first to admit that Germans have just as much bad taste in fashion as an American, except they might be more bold to wear bad taste stuff....even when they know it's bad taste.  Gothic wear?  Just sit on a bench in Wiesbaden in the fall and for young ladies in combat boots.  Weird?  Bad fashion?  Just doesn't matter....they get into a fashion mode and they stay in their mode.

Tenth, once a German has taken to a position...just don't expect them to change or accept it as being wrong.  A German....once convinced....is pretty much concreted down to a reflex.  They were convinced in the first place, and rarely do they find the reasoning to switch.

Yeah, it's tough being a German.  It's not for wussies, or people who flip-flop, or a society who hate rules.  It's pretty much scripted, and if you are born into it.....you are signing up for the full-tour, with no waivers or easy exits.

Friday, May 10, 2013

Tour II

Finally....they waited, and waited, and waited.  But Germans will finally get an official visit by President Obama, after four and a half years.

On 18 and 19 June....the President will land and meet up with the Chancellor in Berlin.  A speech at the Brandenburg Gate?  Who knows?  That hasn't been determined yet.  As candidate Obama back in 2008....he gathered up 200,000 Germans for his big speech in Berlin.

Helping the SPD march to the fall elections?  Well....it's best not to suggest that in public.  The SPD needs all the help they can get at this point.

It'll be hard for the President to pick any subject that really amounts to help for the SPD.  The CDU folks have the best economy running in twenty years.  The Germans aren't at war.  The jobs situation is so good....that even foreigners come to Germany for work.  German health care is at least working.  And Merkel has even held off the fracking crowd.  So there's not much to say or do....to help the SPD folks.

As for the crowd?  Well....if it were a great clear day, with mild temperatures....maybe 250,000 people to show up.  A possible rainy and chilly day?  Maybe 100,000.

Now, I will admit....this is Tuesday and Wednesday....not the weekend.  And Germans don't typically gather in massive crowds on normal work-days, unless it's a strike.

A positive or negative?  No, it's a visit,, and that's basically it.  In fact, it is quiet possible that this is the last visit that the President might make before 2017 when he leaves office.

The German attraction to the President?  Basically, anyone after President Bush....would have garnered five-star support.  That's really the truth.  It could have been worst candidate of the 2008 primary season, and Germans would have stuck onto him or her like glue.

The influence of President Obama on German politics?  You have the one country in Europe who has written a pretty good script for running an economy.  You have people employed and working.  You have business operations at least in running mode....if not expanding.  If you had to pick a time since the 1950s where the majority of Germans are happy....this is it. So it's hard for the President to say anything....to make the situation even better.

Wednesday, May 8, 2013

Just an Ounce of Worry is Enough

I'm always amazed at German science studies.  This week, the smart guys over at the University of Mainz came up with this big study over the possibility of electric waves causing illness.  Between high-voltage lines and cellphones....a large segment of German society complain of health-related problems because of the voltage-in-the-air issue.  They believe it.

Well....after months of study, the University says that just simply believing in a problem like this.....is enough to trigger the problem.  That if you don't believe in such things....then you aren't affected.  Yeah, the placebo-effect.

Where does this all lead to?  It indicates that just a journalistic action or media report.....will hype people up and create a mental issue which goes onto illness.  There is actual belief in the illness existing, so no matter what a doctor does or says.....the person has problems.

The end result?  The best the University could say....was that engineers and developers need to continually demonstrate that their hardware really isn't terrible or potentially causing problems.  I doubt that it really matters....once Bild says you can get cancer from a high-voltage line two kilometers away.....probably half the German population believes it.

Now, if the German press could only hustle up aliens, Bigfoot  and voodoo....we might get more Germans worried about a different list of things.

Saturday, May 4, 2013

The Germans and the Muslims

Next week, there's supposed to be a German government Islamic conference.  It's an interesting deal.  What the German government wants.....is to put a number of subjects on the table and have an open and frank discussion.  They want Muslims to feel as part of the German process.

Well....things aren't going that well here in the days prior to the conference.

The topics on the table?  All put there by the German government.  That rustled a few feathers on the Muslim side.

The topic of terrorism being on the list of topics?  That didn't sit very well.  A number of the three hundred Muslim groups of Germany just don't want that topic discussed.

Who will attend out of the three hundred groups?  Don't know.  If I were a betting man....probably half the groups will show, and half of those will not be part of any terrorism discussion.

The German angle?  They want to discuss the idea of putting the Muslims at the same footing as the other major religions in Germany....which would mean....church or mosque taxes being taken straight out of your paycheck ...just like Catholic Germans pay today.  This issue is a bit hard for Muslims to discuss because the mosque operations are all run by Saudi charity operations for the most part.  If the expense book was opened up....like the German religions currently do....then things would have to be explained and be totally open.  That's not acceptable in their mind.

Terrorism?  The leadership leading back to the Saudi charity guys probably don't want this in any public forum.  If members of the mosque knew the various tricks and angles being used.....they might question the leadership of the mosques, and start to suspect some things.  It's best not to discuss what would go off in a negative fashion.

The curious thing is that the Germans probably have figured out that the 9-11 guys, the Boston bombers, the British bombers, the underwear bomber kid, etc.....all came from Saudi-run mosques.  If you can corner the Saudis out of the mess....you end up with a regular mosque and no real threat.

If I were the German leadership....I'd continue to play out the come-to-the-center-of-the-room card.  The more that Muslim members know and realize....the less acceptable Saudi dominance becomes.  It would only make sense.

Lack of participation in the conference?  It says something about where Muslims in Germany want to head toward in the future.  Fitting into German culture and society....isn't one of the top goals.  But maybe we already know that.  

Relatives on the Payroll

German politics....often comes out looking like some reality TV show, and you suspect that most of them are just a bunch of goofballs.  Just my humble opinion as an American observer.

This week, one of the CSU folks from the state of Bavaria....in their local state legislature....got all frustrated and finally released the name of 79 local politicians (a couple of them are actually state cabinet-level members), who have hired family members on as personal assistants.  In essence, cousin Johan, Aunt Alfilda, Uncle Boris, or your wife Huberta....were hired on and paid out of a party or state bucket of money.

Some rules were written up a decade ago....to kinda fix this because everyone was acutely aware back in the 1990s that there was a problem.  It's best to say that rules in most cases now....were overlooked.

This is an age old problem....that most all countries have had for hundreds of years.  It's nothing really new.  Most Germans thought they'd fixed the problem with their rule established back in 2000, but apparently, that rule was not enough.

My humble guess is that another rule will be written, and this time....real change will occur.  But if this works like it does in Alabama....you will hire your friend's wife to be your personal assistant  and your friend will hire your niece to be his personal assistant.  Then all this legal issue will be forgotten about.

The fear of all of this?  Family dynasties that just continue on and on for decades.  I would suspect the vast majority of Germans just don't want a dynasty situation occurring.

More Taxes?

This week, Die Welt (one of the big national newspapers of Germany)....went out and did a poll and reported the results.  Germans, in the range of three-quarters of the public, believe that tax ought to be increased onto those who make more....to pay for government programs in Germany.

There's a political thing brewing in this election year....where parties need some magic to draw people to their cause.  So the push is on to makes taxes on the rich....higher.

There are some observations that an American can see out of this.

There's a strong effort by the German government and German companies to keep salaries concreted down.  You don't see much movement....a percent here....a percent there.  Unions typically stay fairly strong because strikes are the preferred method to get attention and force contract negotiations.  This has been the standard since WW II.

When you go and look at the taxation methods of Germany....between the nineteen percent VAT (sales tax), the twenty-five to thirty-five percent income tax, the gas tax, etc.....the public generally sees almost half their income gone (tax, health care tax, pension, church tax, etc).  Most Germans all grumble about this and continually look at who is skipping out on taxes.

While the public wants the companies and rich to pay more....few ever connect the dots to realize the risks of running a small business or a medium-sized company.  If you drive around most large metropolitan German cities....you start to notice store-fronts shut down....office buildings with 'for rent' signs in them....and empty industrial yards.  Someone took risks....attempted a business venture....and failed.  The fifty-odd employees will likely never fully understand their bosses failure or where things went wrong.  Few Germans ever go back and analyze their own companies risk and eventual spiral.

So we come to this magical element of an election year.  If people can cry long enough and hard enough....maybe the public will make increased taxes on the rich a big element of the fall election.  Course, this might all lead onto a recession in two years....but someone needed to stir the pot.

Suggesting to cut government costs?  I'd be the first to admit that you just never hear any German political figure suggest that.  Typically, the most used phrase is "reform".  This comes up in taxes, pensions, medical insurance, schools, etc.  Everyone gets peppy when reform gets mentioned, and this consumes the public's attention for at least three or four months.

In the end?   Someone will come to invent an additional tax of some sort....that only affects the wealthy, and then the wealthy folks figure a way to get around the tax or just sneak more money out of the country.  It's a pretty standard reaction, and generally....always works. Everyone, from the public, to the political parties, to the rich.....are all happy in the end.


Wednesday, May 1, 2013

Whats With the Beer Drinking

The German office that does official statistics for the country.....went out and did up a survey and poll over beer drinking in Germany.  The surprising results?  We are at the lowest point in twenty years....for consumption of beer in Germany.

There was barely two billion liters of beer consumed in the first quarter of 2013.

According to Bloomberg News, the average German adult consumes roughly 106 1-liter bottles of beer per year.  This comes out to roughly two beers a week.  Course, you have to figure in that most German women prefer a wine, or wine-mix....so guys are likely drinking their two beers.  And you can figure that twenty percent of German men don't consume any alcohol much at all, so we are up to six beers a week per German guy.

When you walk around a grocery or beverage shop....you tend to notice an awful lot of various alcohol  wine, beer, and odd-ball substances to consume.  You might admit that you've never seen so many possibilities.

In a typical grocery walk, you probably will notice at least seventy different beers now sold by major grocery operations, with at least ten non-alcohol beers offered.  Groceries even offer Dutch and Belgium beers.  Even British ales are offered in most German groceries now.  For wine?  There's likely to be at least one hundred choices....maybe as many as one-hundred-fifty choices.

Adding to this....the heavy hand of DWI pains.  In the 1960s...on the way home, you'd stop....have four German beers, and somehow make it safely home.  Today?  A cop stops you and you've lost your license for a year.  There's a bit of fear in drinking today.  Most guys either drink in home, or at the corner pub.  Rarely do you see a couple of German guys stop after work to drink two beers and chat for hour.

All this leads me to this belief that in twenty years....Germans will be barely drinking one beer a week on average.  I won't say it's a good thing or bad thing....but society is changing their habits.  Some brewery operations will cease to exist.  Beer, for the most part, is in transition.