Monday, December 29, 2014

German News Update over Ukraine

Sometime this afternoon....Germans news media folks started putting out the word that a summit of some type will be held over the Ukraine episode....on 15 January 2015.  Attendees?  Poroshenko, head of the current Ukrainian gov't, Chancellor Merkel, the French head of state, and Russia's Putin.  The hype is pretty thick on this.....with some high expectations coming out of the German media folks.

For the last nine-odd months.....I'd generally say that Ukrainian updates tend to make the news almost nightly.  Germans follow the episode and feel some compassion for the Ukrainian people.  I'd say roughly ten percent of society follow the Russian explanation for things and counter German political comments.

The problem with this summit?  Generally, I'd say there's one remarkable group missing....the pro-Russian Ukrainians.   Maybe it's one of those type meetings where Poroshenko is simply going to lay out a new strategy for a united Ukraine, and Putin will just sit and hear the talk.  Maybe this is strictly an open door for Putin to take some positive move to ease the sanctions against Russia.

Frankly, over the course of twelve months....I'm kinda surprised at how this whole thing has developed.....splitting of a piece or two of Ukraine, and watching the Russians fall into a pit of despair over the sanctions.   If sanctions were to stand for another twelve months?  I'm not sure if Putin would still be around.

So, I'm guessing that Posorshenko is going to put some curious deal on the table....unifying Ukraine in 2016....probably in some six-step process leading up to that point.  There will be some European involvement to ensure an improving economic balance for Russia.....if they allow each step to occur, and Putin will sit there in a curious mess which he can't fix unless he accepts their deal.  As for the pro-Russian Ukrainians?   They probably will be shaking their heads and wondering what this whole thing was about, and where it will conclude.

No comments: