Thursday, December 25, 2014

Ten Observations over Germany and Immigration/Integration/Pegida

Remember, I'm an American....not a I have a different perception and view of this ongoing issue in Germany.  Only my observations:

First, Germany had an average number of folks who came in and did the refugee status thing, and they were prepared for that number of people.  Somewhere around least in what I've started to bump up.  It's probably three or four times the normal average of a decade ago, and escalating monthly.  The plan "A"?  Marginally working.  Plan "B"?  It's hard to say if one does exist.

Second, based on numbers.....some of the sixteen German states are getting extremely high numbers of refugees, and some are getting almost no refugees.  The states in the eastern part of the country (old DDR)....are in the least category.  It's noticeable and the states being pushed to accept more of the new immigrants are realizing their contribution and the cost associated with that.  They aren't that happy, for a good reason.

Third, all of the political parties now realize this refugee and immigrant situation is a big negative with public perception.  With the exception of the AfD.....none of the parties want to say much....except defend the new immigrants and the way it's being handled.  The AfD folks appear to be siding with public sentiment, and making themselves into a magnet for negative talk by public forums.  2017 is only three years away and a national election could involve this topic as one of the top three....something that the CDU/CSU and SPD folks would like to avoid.

Fourth, because of paperwork and plan "A".....most immigrants/refugees are spending months and months in some compound area.....sleeping on a marginal cot.....and feeling like they are in some third-world land.  Getting them out of the compound and into some type of routine German life?  It might be a year or even two years before that first step occurs.  Put yourself into this you feel doing two years in some prison-camp compound?

Fifth, you see a continual discussion over integration.  Some folks think that just the language barrier is enough and if you master 2,000 German words and test well....that's ninety-percent of the barrier.  Some folks think that a brief class of German law and history, with a multiple-choice test....wrap up the last of the barrier.  Some folks think you ought to read five or six German classics.....ought to be thrown into the mix.  Some folks think you need to forced into some civil duty feel German.  Some folks think you need to be thrown into a small-town environment for five years instead of the magnet attraction of mega-city life which most refugees prefer.

Sixth, the radical mix of refugees is always curious.  There are probably twenty different African countries which figure into the episode.....with Eritrea figuring at the top.  Egyptians, Libyans, Iraqis, Syrians, and Palestinians figure into the group.  Toss in the oddball characters who appear from Asia, and you've got a lot of folks who have different levels of education and maturity.  Some can easily fit in and some will never fit.  Some have strong desires to never return to their homeland.....some are still in a state of shock that they were forced to leave because of instability.  The plan "A" refugee situation didn't really take this wide variety of integration into view when built.

Seventh, are all EU states contributing to the game?  No.  Fairness violation?  Call it whatever you desire.  The fact is.....a vast number of refugees just don't care to go off to Spain or Belgium.  They've got a dream-place on their mind, and Germany rates pretty high.

Eighth, each community or city drawn (forced) to participate in refugee camps.....pays initially out of their pocket.  There's some efforts by the national government to compensate but it's not exactly a one-for-one type cost pay-back.  Benefit for the individual city or state? can ask anyone or just sit there and observe the whole picture.....there's just no pay-back in this.

Ninth, what happens in a decade?  So far, I haven't seen any political authority or news media figure come into a forum or sit to ponder over the results of this in a decade. There were twenty-two million Syrians at the beginning of 2013.  Based on the refugee situation and lack of continued unstable environment.....I'd say it's a pretty good guess that three million Syrians might be in Germany by 2023.  Eritrea had a population of six million in 2013.  I'd take an educated guess by 2023, at least 500,000 of their population will be in Germany.  Then figure in the Russians, the other Africans, and various Middle Eastern players....and there might be 85 million residents in Germany....but only seventy-million are authentic Germans.  What does that say about the future of Germany?

Tenth, for the sake of the argument.....let's say that 2017 comes and immigration/refugee status is topic number one for the election.  Let's say that the CDU can wrangle out a thirty-one percent win (top vote party), and the SPD is pressed down to around fifteen percent of the national vote.  Then you have the AfD folks (estimate of twenty-five percent) and the Linke Party (estimate of twenty-two percent), with the Greens carrying the remainder (seven percent).  How exactly would you form a government from this deal?  The CDU forced to partner up with not only the SPD, but the meet the fifty-percent rule?  What kind of government would this turn into and would it be able to last four complete years?  The odds of immigration/refugee/Pegida going away? Zero, and more likely to increase into bigger issues as we get past 2015.  Labeling Pegida as Nazi-pin-stripped players?  What do you refer to people who push refugees into third-rate marginal compounds with a cot as your bed and maybe two years of life in a very uncomfortable situation?  This media game has become a bigger issue than anything else....sadly.

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