Integrated

I returned from my vacation to find my completion certificate for Integration into Germany (100 man-hours).  Yes, I took the quiz and passed with 27 out of 33 questions.  It's nicely packaged up and I'll probably put it up on the wall, and hint to my German wife daily....that I'm integrated.

If I'd just walked in and knew nothing on the country?  Well, I'd rather not say this in public, but the 100 man-hour class marginally provided the knowledge that you really needed.  But that's me saying it, and I'll admit that a 1,000 man-hour class (what I'd design) would have freaked out most new folks in Germany.

Minimum Wage Upgrade

Germany is gearing up for a minimum wage shift.....from 8.84 Euro an hour, to 9.19 Euro an hour....to be effective in 2019. 

A big deal?  Well.....it only occurs because of inflation.  Most folks will still whine about the current standard.

The SPD Party chatter?  Well....they wanted to talk about 12 Euro an hour.  Some of the smaller operations would have freaked out at a burger-flipper payscale of 12 Euro an hour.   Both the Greens and Linke Party would have preferred the 12 Euro standard. 

CDU Party Chief Talks

Chancellor Merkel held two key positions.....Chancellor and CDU Party chief.  So, over the weekend....she's agreed to step down as party chief (some folks are worried over campaign efforts in 2019 and think new leadership needs to form up).

The four key players for the party chief job?  The Secretary-General of the CDU Party right now.....Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer (noted as AKK, and heavily favored by Chancellor Merkel....said to be a carbon copy of her).  The rest?  Health Minister Jens Spahn, former parliamentary group leader Friedrich Merz , and North Rhine-Westphalia's prime minister Armin Laschet.

My view of the four?   AKK is noted as a carbon copy of Merkel, and that might be a negative right now, but she has zero issues and carries a debate very well.

Laschet has had a lot of TV appearances and generally carries himself well.....but isn't exactly a 'thrills-guy'.

Merz is a long-shot and I think the older members of the party might prefer him. 

Then you come to Spahn.  He's in his late 30s.....brilliant at debates, very smart, and is a solutions guy.  He is openly gay, and appeals to the younger crowd in the CDU.

Here's the thing.....whoever gets this job....is likely to be the Chancellor candidate in 2021.  If this were up to Merkel....AKK would be the only possible candidate.  I like Spahn because he is blunt and an entirely different character than Merkel, but his age issue is one that most folks will point out.  As for the gay factor, I don't think many Germans care.

Merkel Out As Party Chief

The announcement came today....Merkel stays on as Chancellor, but retires as party (CDU) chief.   Big deal? Barely.

There's at least ten folks likely to run, and most would be marginally better.  Spahn?  He might be a good choice, but I give him only a 30 percent chance of winning.

How this works?  A weekend meeting will occur and speeches will occur, then the upper level of the party votes.

The dynamic of this? Whoever wins...likely ends up as the next Chancellor.....in 2021s election.

Wedding Gunfire

Another Wiesbaden cop situation came up over the weekend...several folks called up about gunshots and a convey....so cops blocked access and had to search a Turkish wedding group.   One pistol and a number of rounds were confiscated.

This is the second time in six months...with the same basic script...male Turks hyped up and firing off rounds in celebrating a wedding.  Germans?  They freak out over one shot.

The Turk involved? He will end up in some court, paying a fine, and be permanently barred from a gun license.  I doubt if jail time is suggested.

A continuing trend?  It makes you wonder.

Hessen Finals

Election wrapped up in Hessen.

CDU with 27.9 percent, ten points down from five years ago.  Merkel's party slipped.

SPD with 19.9 percent.

AfD with 12.1 percent, who were non-existent 5 years ago.

Greens with 19.5 percent, seizing a big surge.

FDP with 7.5 percent.

Linked Party with 6.6 percent.

You can suggest a CDU problem with votes, and a severe SPD loss.  Nationally, the SPD might go for a leadership change. As for the AfD?
They aren't going away. That's it for eight months for state election activity in Germany.

Sunday Hessen Election

What one can say is that Hessens Sunday election will be discussed at length.  For the CDU, it will be less votes than five years ago, and that will be hyped big time.  Same for the SPD. 

The affect of negativity on immigration?  A lot of people will claim some bit of negative view, but absolutely refuse to vote for the AfD Party.  At best, they walk away with 10 to 12 percent of the vote.

The possibility of a non-CDU state President?   It's a real possibility.

EU Tax Chatter

It came up today as a ten line story.... A new EU idea....taxing folks by the kilometer on autobahns while driving a car.  Complicated?   Well, they avoided uttering that, but it would not be simple.  I admit it is done with trucks in Germany, but car owners said 'hell no', when the idea came up via the Bundestag a decade ago.

Time frame?  The EU suggested 8 years in the future.

Acceptance? I just don't see this being well accepted.

It might even make folks attempt to use autobahn less, and go to 'b' roads....creating massive traffic problems.

Hessen Election Chatter

We are a couple of days away now, and there is this crazy idea being suggested.

Most believe the CDU (Merkel's party) will win, but it will be in the 32 percent range.  Most now expect both the Greens and SPD to take 20 percent EACH.  The AFD probably will end up with 10 percent, with the rest going to minor parties.

The new premier president?  Well, the Greens and SPD, say that any coalition with either....means their folks get the top position. A shocker for the CDU?  Oh yeah.  The bulk of cabinet positions? Likely going to the CDU.

You can anticipate a lot of frustration directed at Merkel.

If this occurs, it will affect the three state elections next year in some fashion.

Public Phones

Up until around the 2000 era....you could still find public phones situated around most all villages, towns and cities of Germany. 

Today?  They are almost non-existent.  This group of six?  It's in the shopping district of Frankfurt.  You would insert your 'card' in and call off of it.  I stood near this spot for about an hour....sipping coffee.  No activity.  I would imagine in an entire week....there's probably fewer than ten phone calls made off the six phones.

It's like the dinosaurs....it's dying off. 

Average Cost of Electrical in Germany

A few months ago, I noticed a electrical article which got down into the 2018 numbers....so I thought I'd essay it.

For an average family of three, you can figure that they use around 3,500 kWh as the annual consumption amount.  What this equals in monthly payments?  85 Euro (roughly 98 US dollars).  Now, you have to take into consider two key things.  First, very few people heat with electrical (most use natural gas or oil).  Second, the bulk of Germans don't use air conditioning (even in my village which is a fairly upscale and wealthy place...I doubt if you can find 3-percent of the houses being cooled in the summer).

How big of a deal is consumption?  A decade ago, no one paid much attention to the age of their freezer or washer.  The sad truth is that German products were essentially made to last not just ten years, or even twenty.....but in a number of cases you will find German products still functioning at the 30-to-40 year point.  But the sad truth is that that 32-year old freezer is using probably 100 to 200 percent of the power that a brand new system would require. 

So the public TV folks have been on this big hype for a decade now.....chatting about dumping older products (which still work) and going for low-consumption products. 

In my case, I have a dryer that I use six months out of the year....in the basement.  In the warmer months, I have a rack on the balcony and air-dry all of the washed clothing there.  This dryer in the basement?  I purchased it in 1998, and it runs just fine.  My German wife?  She blasts away each year around the electrical numbers audit, and is convinced that 20-percent of our consumption is due to this older dryer.  In essence, this winter, it has to go. 

I sat and watched some public documentary piece.....older German couple being audited by an electrical expert, and they came to the basement.  Here in the corner was his beer refrigerator.  Upstairs, in the kitchen.....the wife had a fancy new low consumption refrigerator.  Somewhere in the basement sat this 1960s refrigerator, which he'd had the compressor replaced twice and kept this system running.  The audit guy was kind about it but it laid out the numbers.....that one unit (over 40 years old) was consuming about 40-percent of the total house usage.  More or less....he was being pushed to 'dump' it. 

So if you bump into a German and they get onto the topic of consumption of power.....you can understand their preoccupation over the numbers. 

A Bus Station

Kassel is one of my more favorite cities in Germany to visit.  One of the unique features that you come across....is the main bus station of town....which is at the Wilhelmshohe station of town (not the main hauptbahnhof or main station of town).

It is one of those odd features of the city.  This is a town with two significant railway stations, and this one being the minor one of the two.

So I draw your attention to the bus structure.  You walk out of the station and here is plenty of covered space for at least a thousand people to stand out of the rain, and wait on their bus.  The city-tram?  It stops right in front. 

Whoever sat and spent hours designing this concept.....did a brilliant job.  It's one of those structures in Kassel that I'd recommend you go and see (at least twenty significant features in town worth a two-day visit). 

Höcke

This past week, the Thuringia AfD Party group met and discussed the 2019 state election.  Here in Germany for 2019, there are three state elections and one EU election (June) scheduled.

What came out of this meeting is a 'pick' for their Premier-President candidate (to lead the party in the state election).  They choose.....Björn Höcke.  The basic description to the guy?  Forty-six years old....college educated.  Went to law school but never graduated.  Politically, he is probably as far to the right as you can be....without being extremist in nature. 

The public TV news media tend to use his commentary and statements as negatives, because he is fairly direct and confrontational. 

What's this mean for the AfD Party in the Thuringia election?  It's hard to say.  This is a eastern German state and the AfD already is fairly popular in the region.  Right now, I would make a guess that they can easily clear 15-percent of the state vote, and maybe even go as high as low 20's.  But it also means nationally, that Höcke will be center-stage and being a magnet for criticism. 

So if you see Höcke's name tossed around....at least you have some understanding of the guy. 

Germans in the UK

It got brought up last week via SWR (one of our public regional TV networks) over the topic of how many Germans live and work in the UK, and would be affected in spring of 2019 with BREXIT.

The total number?  Roughly 80,000.

Would they have to leave or ask for a Brit visa?  Unknown at this point.  The negotiation talk?  Going nowhere right now. 

You would assume by Christmas that something has to be written out and in serious draft form....or some folks have started work on some emergency visa paperwork to just approve them for some indefinite period.

Brits in Germany, living or employed?  Near 37,000.....and they basically would have to ask for a long-term visa, unless some agreement is worked out between the EU and UK. 

Understanding the Coalition 'Game'

The way that elections work in Germany....the winner of the election must form a coalition or run a minority government (meaning they lack votes when proposals are brought up in the Bundestag). 

As the winner party, you go to the five other Bundestag parties and try to find the combination to get 50-percent-plus on votes. 

You sit down....discuss the priorities of your party, and theirs.....then you talk over offering them seats in the cabinet....then get to a working strategy if things come up for a vote.  Some combination of parties can work together....some can't (like the FDP and Green Party combo, or the CDU and AfD combo). 

Out of the 2017 national election, the attempt to form a CDU coalition with the Greens and FDP failed after two months of effort.  The original idea of a CDU and SPD coalition?  That was thrown out in the first forty-eight hours after the fall election....the SPD said a flat 'NO' to the idea.  But after the Green/FDP coalition idea failed.....this SPD and CDU coalition idea got brought up and forced into existence.  If you go to most SPD voters....a third of them will say it's a bad coalition and only doomed to fail.

So if this coalition were to fail now (one year after the election)?

This goes to three scenarios.  First, you could go back to the Green-FDP situation, but I doubt that this would work the second time around.  Second, you run a minority government.....which just about everyone admits is doomed to fail.  Third, you hold another election.

So what happens in an election....say in the spring of 2019?  Right now, the SPD is barely able to manage 16-to-17 percent of the national polling situation.  The Greens are ranked second right now today.  The AfD nationally?  They might pull 15 to 17 percent of the vote.  Merkel won't run in such an election and no one can say if that helps or hurts the CDU. 

Basically, dooming the coalition thing and having an election.....just makes the leadership game more difficult to figure out and a weaker government likely coming out of the whole mess.  Things were predictable for the past sixty years when the CDU and SPD combined....could achieve 50-plus percent of the national vote.  Once the two big parties go below 50-plus percent....it's a difficult 'fog' to see through. 

My humble guess is that everyone will work to make this coalition work for the next two years and hope some recovery occurs within both the CDU and SPD parties. 

The Morning After the Election

The smoke now clears over the Bavarian state election.  Journalists probably spent eight hours last night between the two public TV outlets (ARD and ZDF) trying to hype the story and tell their emphasis of results.

There are four basic themes in the discussion by the journalists:

1.  There is some suggestion that the 'grand' coalition (the phrase used to describe the leadership deal between Merkel's CDU-CSU Party and the SPD Party) might be dying off.  I have doubts about that suggestion...mainly because if you broke up this coalition, then a new national election would be required.  This would be a very bad thing for the SPD folks because of dismal numbers.

2.  The journalists want to hype the Green Party platform and success from this election.  Well....what you can say is that some SPD-voters walked away from their party and this was more or less to send a message.  The SPD Party is in trouble but it's a long-term problem which they haven't been able to correct.  New leadership in the party did nothing....the lack of position on the diesel crisis is obvious....disjointed team play within the party is showing two entirely different factions existing....and the list goes on. 

3.  Dumping of blame on Seehofer and Soder (CSU bigwigs)?  For ten months....you could stand there and note various journalists on some agenda to dump on both guys.  Last night, they simply went into turbo mood and continued the dumping procedure.

4.  The success of the AfD.  Basically, they came from zero (five years ago) to 10-percent yesterday, in the voting.  This is another case of voters sending a message. 

So does the Hessen election in two weeks really matter a great deal?  For the SPD, I would suggest that the 30-percent that the SPD Party took in 2013's Hessen election won't be repeated, and they might be lucky if they can make the 20-percent point.  Those lost votes (if this occurs)?  It'll be likely Green Party gains.  That type of loss of votes would be enough to convince a new leadership scheme for the SPD.  Nahles gone?  She'd just be pushed into the background.

The real question to ask here....is the SPD under a transformation where they are just a marginal 12-percent type party, and the Greens end up being the number two party of the republic?  Then you can ask if Merkel's theme for the past decade has created a sort of Frankenstein-government landscape. 

The Bavarian State Election

So it's mostly wrapped up:

CSU Party (sister party of the CDU): 35.3-percent (lowest for them since WW II)
SPD Party: 9.9-percent (dismal showing as well)
Greens:  18.5-percent
Linke Party: 3.5-percent (not enough to get seats in the state Parliament)
AfD: 10.9-percent
FDP: 5.1-percent
Free Voters Party: 11.6-percent
Others: 5.2-percent (all of the 'cats and dogs' of various parties with marginal showing)

What this all means?

1.  The CSU cannot run the government of Bavaria any longer with just their party (they typically took 50-percent or more in all previous elections.

2.  Partnering up?  Various combo's exist to help the CSU reach the 50-percent level: (A) CSU-SPD-FDP. (B) CSU-Greens.  (C) CSU-Free Voters-FDP.  (D) CSU-Free Voters-SPD.

3. The loss of voters for the CSU?  They appear mostly to have gone to the AfD and Free Voters Party.  There is some disenchantment....partly because of the CSU fight of the past four months.

4.  The loss of voters to SPD?  Same story because negative coverage.  My guess is that they are fairly unhappy with the results. According to one stat record....there's actually near 100,000 SPD voters who crossed the line and voted for CSU in this election

5  The AfD?  It's a decent showing but limited in terms of seats gained.

So you come to the effect on the Hessen state election in the next two weeks?  I think the CDU will have problems, and the Greens might be on a hyped-up adventure against the SPD.  The Free Voters Party getting a good showing?  In 2013, they did a 1.3-percent showing (leading me to speculate that if they got four-percent....they'd be exceptionally happy).

Rifle Story

Occasionally, I'll have a German Army story that pops up, with a twist to it.  I noticed this via ARD (Channel One, public German TV) yesterday.

Around three years ago, the German Army came to admit that they had a major issue with their chosen assault rifle (the G-36).  Perhaps in training situations....it worked as advertised, but as you got into real situations....in the heat of Afghanistan or Africa....it came to fail.  Solders began to complain, and it reached the level of getting into the German news.  So the Defense Minister (Ursula von der Leyen, CDU) came to say that a replacement rifle had to be found.

This past week, the German military came to admit that after various tests with the replacement rifles (various companies).....NONE met the qualifications.

Yes, it's a pretty serious thing to admit. 

So, they handed the rifles and results back to the companies, and said they have around eight months to fix the issues, and a new test will occur.

A delay?  You can figure a minimum of eight months, and it's possible that even with this extra time and effort....issues will continue. 

The 365 Euro Ticket

I noticed a piece on N-TV (our German commercial news network) this morning which was political in nature but revolved around public transportation.

The Green Party spoke up yesterday (Saturday) about this agenda item which would work on climate change.  The idea?  Introduction of a one-Euro per day ticket for ALL public buses/trams/trains.  Basic cost for a year.....365 Euro or roughly 420 US dollars (for the whole year).

The aim?  They want people to use public transportation more than private cars.  All of this would of course relate to greenhouse gas emissions, thus saving humanity from global cooling/warming (which ever you prefer).

To make all of this enticing?  The sales tax business which is normally 19-percent for long-distance movement?  The Greens say they'd dump it down to 7-percent.

The negative of this deal?  This 365 Euro ticket per year....simply wouldn't pay for the total amount of traffic cost.  If you aimed this strictly at larger scale cities (Frankfurt for example), where there is X-amount of daily traffic and no long distance traffic....it might work.  But once you suggest that you could buy this yearly ticket and go from Berlin to Hamburg once a week, with all the regular Berlin traffic tied in....there's a significant amount of cost.  They'd end up having tax people (probably increasing the VAT sales tax from 19-percent to 21-percent) to pay for the 'low-cost' travel option.

Selling this idea across to the public?  That's the thing.....if you came up to a hundred local working-class folks and said you had this wonderful plastic card that you only paid 30-Euro a month (36 US dollars roughly) and you got all of the bus travel, tram service, and railway options....not just in the local town, or the state itself.....but across of Germany, it would perk the interest of folks.  But the thing drawing you to question this....you kinda like your private car and the ability to leave home and be at work within 30 minutes (not 55 minutes with bus/tram service). 

So could you entice most people to give up the car, and do the ticket deal?  I have my doubts.  I live on the outer boundary of Wiesbaden (285,000).  Monday through Friday....I have regular bus service.  For the rush-hour period, there are potentially five buses running through the village, then things slack off to three per hour.  After 7PM?  It goes to two per hour.  Sundays?  They still run two per hour, for the whole day.  But the thing is....there is one single route from the village into Wiesbaden, and this 16-minute route has to be achieved before you reach the bus terminal area for connections.  It's this connection business which adds onto your 'adventure'.  Adding more buses or routes?  It won't happen because they simply don't have the capital or number of passengers to make it economically feasible.

Explaining this to the Greens?  Just about impossible. 

The one other odd part of this idea....once you get into rural areas of Germany, where you have a village with just ten bus runs per day....cheaper tickets just don't matter.  So they (the Greens) are going for bulk vote situations....in highly urbanized areas....to pump up the party votes.   

Election Today

In roughly twelve hours, the Bavarian state election will be over and results will pour in.  Expectations? 

1.  The CSU (sister party of the CDU) will win but it likely won't be the same type of results as in 2013. 

2.  The AfD folks are discussed in polls as having 10-percent of the vote.

3.  The SPD suffers badly, with the Greens taking their votes. 

A big deal?  Some will say that the stagnation going on in Germany has taken some respect from Merkel and the CDU (along with the SPD).  Bavaria won't have another state election until 2023 (two years after the next national election).  That might be helpful to have a new Chancellor in place and plus up the CSU numbers by then.

Last Night's Special

Last night, ZDF (public TV here in Germany, Channel Two) ran a one-hour public forum show under the Maybrit Illner 'brand' (forum show).  It ran late, and I would take a guess that it probably had a lesser audience because of the time-slot.  The odd feature of this Illner brand-show?  Well....they stamped it 'special' at the beginning.  Title:  "Method Trump - Danger to Europe's democracy?"

Yep, it was a full hour with a moderator and seven guests.  There were two legit political figures on the panel (the German Justice Minister, and the Austrian Foreign Minister).  So the main question or hype of this public chat forum revolves around the idea of President Trump being a threat to democracy in Europe. 

I sat through about fifteen to twenty minutes of it. 

They went to the mid-term election business and this was the starting point of trying to explain to the German public that some 'ray of hope' exists, for the Democrats to gain control of the House, and they would finally control and hopefully eliminate President's domination.

I channel flipped back to the segment at some point, and they brought out the German 'kid' (18 year old, he'd spend a year in Idaho with a guest family).  So the kid was impressive.  He laid out the perception of regular people, and what they expected.  It wasn't a negative or positive type of experience....he simply told of the perspective of rural-type Americans and their political landscape.  That five-minute interview probably gave some Germans a different prospective.

I looked at commentary this morning over the show.  Some intellectual types felt Trump was running through a 1932-type script and something Nazi-like was on the horizon.  Others laughed at the historical choice of words and suggested that threatened folks weren't on the same planet.

There are three observations I can make:

1.  The Germans who tend to drift over and watch Illner public forum shows, will admit that they are intellectual types, and well receptive to negative US-chatter, and especially to negative Trump-chatter.

2.  A fairly large segment of German society simply don't care for the public forum shows, and their influence is of a marginal scale except they convince politicians to keep reading off the 'script'.

3.  The public-forums oddly refuse to go and have seven regular working-class Americans to be panel guests and express why the political landscape in the US has changed so much over the past twenty years.  It might be helpful to have a Latino explain why a growing number support Trump policy.  The same can be said for blacks who now number near 25-percent in favor of Trump policy.   The anti-NAFTA folks?  You always end up with intellectual types who don't connect to people who vote, and that's the amusing side of this effort.

Germans knowing of the mid-term election?  If you went quizzed a hundred working-class Germans....I doubt if more than three of them knew the election was coming up and frankly, they've got more important things to think about or worry about. 

The Disenchantment Problem With the German Government

The ARD folks (public TV news, Channel One)....did a survey to look at political standing and national trends with the public.

The first thing that stands out is that three out of four Germans LACK the belief that the German government is doing a good job. This is a trend that I've discussed in a number of previous essays.  The oddness of this problem is that you can't find an element of corruption, someone being fired, or some arrest/detention of government leadership.

In simple terms....the 'candy-shop' is open and doing business, with fifth-grade kids in charge.  They mostly talk about achievements or things boiling over.....hour after hour....with free public forum time or news-chat time via ARD or ZDF, but in terms of this relating to something that the public can be happy about.....it just leads onto the issue of fixing the problem and resolutions can't be easily accomplished. 

So you come to the second issue, the polling for this week:

CDU/CSU: 26-percent
SPD: 15-percent
Greens: 17-percent
AfD: 16-percent
Linke Party: 10-percent
FDP: 10-percent

For the combined effort of the CDU-CSU and SPD....it would not get past 41-percent total.  There hasn't been an election since WW II where the two major groups didn't get 50-plus percent. Back in the 1970s and 1980s....it was fairly easily to reach 90-percent....so they've dropped to a great extent.

The Greens doing well?  What you see is people who've walked away from the SPD, and simply giving their vote in some message to say they are unhappy with the SPD theme/message.

On down on the list of polling features, we come to issue number three....affordable housing.  Around five years ago, this started to become a top three issue in major metropolitan cities here in Germany.  A lot of renovation is taking place and people can't afford the newly upgraded apartments that they lived in for years.  New construction in the area of producing affordable apartments?  Mostly non-existent.  The public perception, if you use this poll?  Almost four out of five Germans think that the government has failed to achievement anything.

The thing to take from this poll is that we are just 12 months into this government.  A dismal end to the Merkel years?  This is the odd way of looking at the tailend of this period of German history.  No great disasters....no corruption.....just plain regular management over things with nothing really special standing out there. 

What happens in 2021 (if we make it that far)?  I suspect that the Green Party will have near 20-to-22 percent of the national vote.  I think the SPD folks are going to be lucky if they can clear 12-percent.  By that point, the public will be looking for some dramatic change. 

Teacher Story

I often essay about German education and the problems that oddly pop up.  So today, the public TV folks at ARD (Channel One) came up with a story talking about lack of teachers....but it's a geographic type story.

Overall, Germany right now has a shortage of teachers.  They figure every single year for the next twelve years....they need to recruit 32,000 new teachers (out of a population of 82-million).  But the same folks (Conference of the Ministers of Education) say that there will simply NOT be enough to apply.

In fact, they even note that recruiting in the eastern side of Germany is now a major problem.  Even now....hundreds of teacher jobs are simply vacant because there aren't enough applicants. 

In some cases, they've gone outside of the teacher 'avenue' and started to use just about anyone with a degree, and put them through a 'crash course' (best not to ask) to be a teacher. 

The same people also admit that in western Germany....they've got an excess of people applying (between three and four percent) and more than enough teachers.

The idea of moving from west to east?  To an American, this wouldn't be a big deal.  Most Germans have an 'anchor-type' mentality about moving, and the best you could suggest is moving within the state itself (say from one city in Bavaria to another).  Then if you did bring up moving from western Germany to eastern Germany?  Oh, that would freak some folks out.  There is still some preconceived notions about old DDR and what exists today.

I've driven around a number of the east German cities.....like Dresden, Erfurt, and Berlin (the eastern side).  In the urbanized areas, you'd generally say you are in Germany and there's very little (except the older buildings) to suggest things are different.  In the small towns?  That might be another story and you feel like you went through a mini-time-tunnel and it doesn't compare to some rural region of Rhineland Pfalz. 

A crisis of teachers?  I suspect when we get to the 2021 national election, this teacher issue will have arrived to place in the top ten problems and some 'bonus' deal will have to be created to talk west Germans into moving and taking teaching jobs in eastern Germany. 

Air Measurement Station

Down upon Schiersteiner Strasse in Wiesbaden....which you might pass a thousand times and never notice....is a air quality measurement and weather station.

Around the city, I'd take a guess that at least four exist.  Fixated against a building?  Well....yes.  It's no more than 12 feet from the apartment building, and on the other side....a six-lane street.  And yes, that is an air conditioner on the top rear.

Some folks (not the weather folks of course) have come to suggest that the measurement numbers for air quality are compromised to some degree because the measurement is not taken in the middle of the highway, and by being that close to the building....there is 'collected and stagnant' air quality.  Course, it's not science-proven (yet).

Free Stuff Campaign

We are into the political campaign season here in Hessen, and this is one of my favorite political signs, by the Linke Party (former Communists).

So what they are 'promising' is more free (no-cost) bus and train situations for people. 

Now, a person with intelligence would stand there and eventually ask....if you give away stuff freely....who pays for it?  If you didn't pay for the bus or train tickets....then who pays?

Well...you would....via additional taxation.

It all sounds good, but if it meant more taxes....most Germans would just say 'Nein, danke'...(no thanks). 

Bird Season

It is that season now in Hessen, with birds in high abundance and creating a problem for people who park under trees.  I saw this car yesterday and just felt sorry for the owner....that's a good ten-minute long carwash to clean it up. 

US Basing in Greece?

Greece this week, is having some chats with the US....strangely enough.....about a US military presence to be established at three Greek locations.  Volos, Alexandroupoli, and Larissa.

Volos and Larissa?  They are smaller towns on the mainland of Greece....on the eastern side of the country.  In fact, they are within twenty kilometers of each other.

Alexandroupoli?  It's way over on the eastern end of the country....a port city.  It's probably 5 miles from the Turkish border.  The airport does have a 8000 ft runway but I doubt if they handle more than eight flights a day. 

If you look at the 'chatter'.....all three of these locations are mostly non-tourist areas.  Would the US even consider some military basing? I would suggest it's very questionable.  In the case of Alexandroupoli, they might agree to some radar and surveillance platform being placed there, but I just don't see them putting a significant number of troops (even a thousand) at any of three sites. 

A lot of this goes to an uneasy feeling among Greeks that Turkey has not been the same since the attempted coup business from two years ago.  Turkish 'invasion' chatter?  Almost non-existent.  Threats?  There might be a headline or two every month from the Turkish media to suggest some threat from the Greeks, but it's mostly to draw attention away from Turkish issues.

Hand Signals

Hand signals are not something that you tend to think of.....when discussing German society.  But there is this story in the news that came up, so you have to discuss this for a minute.

The topic to refer to....is 'Schweigefuchs'....which loosely translates to hand signals. 

The Bundestag political folks think that some signals used by the right-wing folks might need to be brought under control....so they are trying to conceive of a way to limit or ban certain hand signals.  Focus (the German news magazine) brought up the essentials of the story today.

An example of hand signals?  The Leisefuchs.  This is typically used in a classroom where the instructor/teacher will raise their hand, putting the number two finger on the thumb,and allowing the first and third fingers to rise up.....like a fox's ears.  This is to mean....'QUIET". 

This Leisefuchs hand signal is used by a right-wing Turkish group (the Gray Wolves).

Another hand signal?  The two-finger victory sign. 

Banning or limiting these?  The best that the cops might get is a law that makes it a misdemeanor but I suspect that teenage German kids would immediately drift over and use the hand sign on a daily basis. 

Update Story

About six weeks ago, I chatted over a dispute over in Kothen which led to a couple of immigrant guys (Afghans) in the middle of a situation where a German guy died.  At the time, it made the news but there were a lot of pieces to the story missing.

So I noticed via MDR (a public TV network from that region of Germany)....updating the rest of this story.

Cops now say that the two accused guys are still being held in custody and haven't been released.

The witnesses have provided a good bit of data and a autopsy has reveal some key items.

So the cops say that the two will be accused physical injury, and if convicted....the range would be three to fifteen years.  But here is the odd part of the story.....cause of death....heart attack.

What they say is that they found no fatal injuries from kicking or hits.  The dead German had a serious heart condition since birth and there had been some operations done already on his heart.

Odds of a conviction?  There's probably some first-degree or second-degree assault charge that might stick, but I don't see any other major charges coming out of this.  Getting into some stupid brawl.....you can stick to both of these guys and they should have cooled off on their aggressive nature. 

So, no knives or terror-type intentions....just stupid behavior which resulted in the German guy having a heart attack. 

Austrian Draft Law Story

I noticed today off an Austrian news site (Der Standard)....there is political chatter about this draft law they are writing.....over foreigners and knives.  It's a short piece but it has a curious slant to it.

The Austrians are facing the same issues with an immigrant population showing up in criminal statistics with a high rate of knife assaults. 

So down in Vienna....there is a draft being written which suggest a general ban will occur on foreigners in the country have knives in their possession.

You would have to be a citizen or have a permanent residence visa.....to carry any type of stabbing or slashing weapon.

This would all go toward section 11 a of the Arms Act of the law.

Now saying there is a draft, and getting it passed....are two different things.  But lets assume they pass this, and tomorrow....it's illegal as a foreigner in the country to have any type of knife in your possession unless you have a permanent visa.....will it really change the statistics?  That's an unknown.

The curious thing is that cop patrol could stop two guys...finding both have temp visas (not the permanent ones), and both have knives.  The cops could drag the two into court.....give both real jail-time (six months), and provide enough verbage to ensure they never get a permanent visa. 

The odds of something like this happening in Germany?  Right now today?  Zero chance.  But I could imagine in a year or two.....folks start to suggest some additional rules because of stabbings, and you see some German states pick up this idea and examine it. 

Seats in the Bundestag Story

This is a history and political essay to talk about a curious part of the German government....representatives in the Bundestag (Parliament).

When the 1949 election wrapped up and the first real government after WW II was put together, the Bundestag consisted (for West Germany now, remember that fact) of 402 seats.

The 1953 election bumped it up to 509 seats.

In the 1957 selection, it bumped up to 519 seats.

By the 1972 election, they were sitting at 518 seats.

In 1983, they were still around 518 seats.

In the 1990 election (East and West Germany combined finally), they went to 662 seats.

Last year, 2017, after the election wrapped up....they settled upon 709 seats.  The work-men of the Bundestag spent a week reshuffling things in the interior to squeeze another forty-odd seats into the structure.

This week, it came up in the news that the main players of the Bundestag think that 709 folks is way too many (yes, rather shocking).  So I shuffled through the ARD (Channel One, public TV news) piece to grasp the chatter going on.

First, they now admit that the cost factor (pay, housing, offices, staff support, telephone bills, travel, and pensions)....adds up almost one billion Euro (1.25 US billion dollars).....to run the Bundestag.

The head of the Federal Taxpayer Association (Reiner Holznagel) suggests that 500 members are probably enough.

If you look at the anticipated results of the two state elections coming up (Bavaria and Hessen)...the law says they can now go up to 898 members.

The slam against this?  Well...a high number of folks have gotten use to the Berlin lifestyle and there's probably not any job that pays like this and requires such limited work.

Is there any big difference between this and Hitler's Bundestag in 1933?  In that time period, there were a total of 647 members.

Like the American deal, it's considered a full-time job and usually only two major breaks in the year (Christmas period, and a full month off in July/August timeframe). 

The odds that they will lessen the number?  I have my doubts that you can find anyone much within the Bundestag that wants the number pushed down. At best, you might find it agreeable to carve off 40 seats.  The only folks grumbling will be the work-men who have to figure a new way of seating the proper number of seats. 

Machete Story

This story came up today via our local town police 'blotter' (for Wiesbaden).  Cops say over the weekend (Saturday night)....that they had a regular foot-patrol (two cops) walking down through the shopping district.  It's some point around midnight.

Here is some argument brewing and a brawl starting up between two groups (six folks each).  Normally, German guys don't brawl much (unless there's women in the discussion).  So you can probably assume these folks weren't German in nature.

Two folks run off early in this episode.  Cops kinda stop the mess from escalating but they want a 'Q and A' session....to explain who started what.  Meanwhile, they've called for reinforcements.

Minutes pass, and at least one guy seems to return to the brawl area, and he's got a machete.

Yes, a machete.

Cops apparently have the reinforcements arriving and they direct the machete 'kid' to drop it.  The cops more or less suggest to put the machete down.....he doesn't get 'it' (maybe there was a translation problem here (we never covered that word in the intensive language course).  So the cops more or less....took him to the ground.

I asked my wife (German in nature) if machetes were commonplace (noting we didn't have one in our house), and she responded by asking why in the world would we have a machete. 

Charges?  Well....possessing and carrying a machete in public....is a problem.  I'm guessing he is looking at a misdemeanor but I doubt if he gets any real jail-time.

But this brings me to the reality of walking around the center of Wiesbaden (a place I deemed fairly safe) and this threat of some idiot carrying a machete around.  If the cops hadn't been there?  Well....yeah, some guy might have been whacked and this would be a front-page story.  The cops?  They have to sitting there and wondering....just how stupid are people getting to react to something by a threat of a machete. 

Jews in the AfD?

I spoke on an essay about three weeks ago....that some element of Jews in the Frankfurt area....were going to organize an association under the AfD Party (the anti-immigration group).  Well....I caught up with the story this morning.....the group finished their weekend meeting and the association now exists.  N-TV (the commercial German news network) reports most of the story.

This is a group that I'd just refer to as being an inner-party group of the AfD, and what they say is....being Jewish is a requirement to be a member.  A large group?  No....N-TV says 24 folks are now counted as members.

Naturally, this got Jewish groups across Germany hyped up and angry....suggesting that AfD is anti-Jewish and therefore.....you can't form such a participation-group, under the Jewish identification.

Over the past couple of years, various negative accusations have been thrown at the AfD folks....suggesting some Nazi-feelings or racism.  The fact that the Jewish group exists within AfD?  Well...it basically makes the accusations now look weak. 

Here's the thing.....if a couple of groups like this start to exist, and the anti-AfD folks have to acknowledge that some of the harsh chatter (Nazi-talk, racism-chatter)....doesn't exist at the degree they suggest, then public perception will likely change to some degree. 

The chief focus of AfD?  It remains basically the same that you would have observed three years ago....that immigration and asylum policies of the government are a failure, and that some significant change has to occur with limits on migrants.  It would appear that this political talk now crosses religious lines and even some German Jews (limited in nature) agree with the position against the government. 

Greek Chatter

There are several news groups discussing the story today, and I'll just cover the basic story.

Greece has had some group working on reparations from Germany and wanted a 'true' estimate.  So today, it came out.....the Greeks say compensation for WW II comes out to 269.5 billion Euro (roughly 310 billion US dollars....more or less).

Additionally, they suggest that the repayment for a bank loan is sitting out there, and it would be worth about 10.3 billion Euro.

What happens now?  The report will be presented to the Greek Parliament, and likely approved....then they say it will be sent onto Germany and the EU.  They suggestion negotiation is possible.  Typically with Greeks, that means that you can get four-percent off the original price, and perhaps you could push it to 10-percent.

German attitude about this.  The working-class German will sit there and grumble a good bit....maybe use a curse word or two....just to indicate that this will absolutely never happen.  Chancellor Merkel, will be extremely polite and just refuse to acknowledge the suggestion was ever made.

The historical aspects of this?

First to the bank 'loan'.  The Nazis arrived and requested a loan.  Yes, this was not a robbery like you expect.  So they requested a fair sum of money in the spring of 1941 from the Greek National Bank.  This was written into the form of a loan, with ZERO-percent interest.  Yes, it actually says this.  Has the loan ever been repaid?  No.

But there is this odd aspect....this was a private bank, so if you returned the money (figure the 10-odd billion Euro, without interest)....who would get the money?  The people who lived in 1941 and their descendents.....or private owners of the bank today?  The government ownership?  After the war, their ownership was written into law....a max of thirty-five percent ownership.  So that's all that they could claim.

Did Greek Jews have a fair amount of this cash in the bank?  Well....no one ever asks that question.  My humble guess is that some fair sum of this money that the Nazis took (as a loan) was Jewish money sitting in Greece.

The reason for the loan?  Oh.....the Nazi Party was apparently going bankrupt with their economic program.  Yeah....with the war barely starting up....they were in serious economic trouble.

Even if people agreed to the bank loan deal.....it would take years to determine the rightful people to pay the billions to.

So onto the reparations deal....the second part of this discussion.

The Marshall Plan playing this?  Yes.  The plan basically said that there would be no reparations due from Germany.  We (the US) would fund all your damage money.  Once you accepted the US money....you were supposed to sign off and 'shut up'.  What did the Greeks get from the US (in today's dollars)?  The historical number is 3.5 billion dollars.

The reparations game here? What happened after the Trojan War (1194 BC)? What happened after the Greece-Punic War in 600 BC? What happened after the Greece-Persia War (499 BC)? What happened in the Social War of 357 AD? What happened in 334 with Alexander the Great and his Greek Army invading various neighbors? What happened in the Greek Civil Wars of 1823 (phase one and phase two)? The sad truth is that Greece has had over sixty various wars or campaigns over the past four-thousand years. Greece ought to be paying for reparations of various wars to their neighbors, if they take this reparations game serious.

My take on this is that the Germans will grumble and pretend this wasn't said.  What the Greeks really want?  They want these loans made to them five years ago....into the billions....to be forgiven.  The amount?  Roughly 60-billion Euro (if you use the numbers from 18 months ago).  German acceptance of some free money deal?  Don't dare bring this up in the company of working-class Germans. 

Explaining Notstandsgesetze

German historians rarely bring up Notstandsgesetze.  But it is one of those odd features of West Germany....after WW II....which brings on a fair amount of chaos and some major moments for Germany from 1968 to the early 1980s.  So I'll try to explain this in basic terms.

German, from the conclusion of the war (May 1945) to May 1968....while a West German government did exist in many forms....there was a overview by the allies (US, Britain, France and the USSR) that existed.  Yes, twenty-three years later, West Germany was NOT yet in full control of their affairs.  So to end this control.....the allies wrote down this one basic requirement that had to be passed and included in the Constitution.....to be referred to as Notstandsgesetze.  In English.....it was the emergency acts clause.

It said in simple terms....the German federal government had the authority in an emergency situation to take and seize power throughout Germany....for examples like natural disaster, uprisings, or war.  This term 'uprisings'?  This was not very clearly spelled out.  What the allies wanted was a clear path to leadership that they could go to, and expect one voice to speak and act. 

So in the spring of 1968, they were discussing the way it'd work, and the government coalition was CDU-SPD (referred to as the Grand Coalition), and the two had roughly 90-percent control of the Bundestag.  So in getting this passed.....it was no big deal.  The opposition? The FDP.  And they clearly made a big deal out of the wording.  As far as they saw it.....the states of West Germany held an enormous amount of power, and giving this over to the federal government....was not appropriate.

What happened next?  For about a year, student and university groups led protests, which centered on this and a dozen-odd problems they saw.  In historical discussions, the 1968-1969 period is a big deal, and hyped up to a major degree.

Should the Notstandsgesetze have been written or done differently?  Looking back, this was the trigger of the Red Army terror period, and the unrest of university student in this period.

Prior to the 1930s....was there something in the Constitution to handle this emergency type of management required?  No. 

Ulm Story

Reading through a regional newspaper from Ulm, I noted that the SWP news folks report some massive 'brawl' from last night.

What is reported is a couple of phone calls occurred around 7:00 PM....cops were requested.  Germans were viewing some kind of fight with younger guys brawling with others.  Some witnesses were saying forty people total....some were suggesting 20 people max.

So the cops arrived.  What they observed were two guys still standing there and engaged in some kind of fight.  Both were injured enough for an ambulance.  The two guys?  They wouldn't say much of anything, or suggest how the fight got started.

So then you come to what some locals told the cops (as potential witnesses).....that local guys were struck and hit by thirty asylum seekers.  Cops?  There's no evidence yet to suggest this ever occurred. 

More investigation?  Maybe.  But if the two guys don't offer much more on info, I don't see the cops having any interest.  The thirty asylum guy quotes?  Maybe it has some element of truth....maybe not.  Maybe we are talking about three asylum guys.

Old German History: German People's Party

After WW I and the end of the Kaiser era....one of the significant parties that came to exist in 1919....was the German People's Party.  This is a brief introduction essay over the party, it's 13-year history, and where things went wrong.

The party is often noted as the DVP or Deutsche Volkspartei.  The basic description is that it was a liberal party....existing in the Weimar Republic days, and leaned slightly to the right (conservative).  It's big-name political figure?  Gustav Stresemann (you often find German city streets named after the guy)....who was the the 1926 Nobel Peace Prize winner.  He would briefly serve as a Foreign Minister and Chancellor.

The party found success in 1919's national election, with around 4.5 percent of the national vote.  Their peak came a year later (1920's national election) with around 14-percent of the national vote.  By 1928, they were back down to 8.7-percent of the vote.  By 1930, with the Nazis on the rise, they managed only 4.5-percent of the vote, and in the 1932 election....they were down to 1.9-percent of the national vote.  A year later, they virtually disappeared.

Their theme?  They supported jobs (via the German industry)....and had a family values related platform.  They voiced negativity about higher taxes, and went against religious-oriented education/schools.  Communism?  Opposed, to the maximum extent possible.

Their downward path?  Historians argue over this.  Some suggest that the 1920 election was just a lucky break.  Some suggest that the family values chatter really didn't help attract voters.  Some will suggest that they could not explain their pro-jobs stance to any real plan to achieve such success. 

After the war, elements (former members) came up and they ended up forming what is known today as the FDP (the Free Democratic Party) which traditionally gets around five to eight percent of the national vote. 

The Retired German Story

I noticed this short business article on N-TV (German commercial news network) this morning....chatting over Germans leaving Germany, upon retirement.

So analysts have looked over where pensions go, and they note since the year 2000....out-of-country payments have risen from 1.1 million retired Germans living outside of the country.....to 1.5 million.  But they admit....some relate to individuals who were non-German but worked in Germany for decades, to receive their retirement.

The significant number here?  One out of every seven pensions....go outside of Germany.

The chief location?  Switzerland leads (around 26k pensioners).  Austria and the US come in second with around 24k pensions. 

But the experts note that guest-workers (historically from Italy, Greece, Turkey, Yugoslavia (the former), and Spain.....are part of this story as well.

Part of a trend?  The guest-worker amount is not surprising...you could have predicted that lots of guest-workers in the 1950s and 1960s....would have stayed around and earned a legit pension via Germany.

The idea of some Germans packing up and retiring outside of Germany?  Yeah, that might be a surprise.  It would be curious from the 24k retired Germans in the US....to see which state (likely to be Florida) has the highest number.

The Hambacher Forest 'Saga'

Over the past month or two, if you follow German news....almost every night has some 'update' to this ongoing saga.

So, let me introduce you to the Hambacher Forest story.  The region is up in the northwest of Germany, in the North Rhineland Westphalia region (near Aachen).  It is adjacent to an area rich in coal. 

About six years ago, this idea came up with the owner of the adjacent property (used for coal mining) to do an open-pit type situation with the Hambach Forest (said to be 120,000 years old).  The company?  RWE.

As you can imagine....environmentalists lined up and opposed the expansion.  It would have been an open pit area over roughly 30 square miles.  Tree-cutting was supposed to start up two months ago (courts gave the go-ahead).  But then these environmentalists came in....set up camps....tree-sitting spots, and the tree-cutting came to a halt.

Cops got called in.  Different tactics were deployed.  At some point.....journalists were hyped up to come in and tell this story (mostly from the prospective of the environmentalists).  For whatever reason, this one journalist felt the need to climb up on a tree (at least 30 feet up)....without any safety gear.  He slipped, and fell....dying there at the scene.

The court now stepped in.....partly because of the hyped up atmosphere, and partly because of a science report that some endangered bat species lives in the local area....ordering the whole tree-cutting episode to halt for the time being.

Worth getting into the top ten articles of the nightly news on public TV (ARD or ZDF)?  Well....most Germans would say no.  For a period there (probably two weeks straight before the journalist fell)....there were nightly updates, some done live from the scene. 

What usually occurs in cases like this....the environmentalists make a big enough fuss to halt the Germany project.  So the company wises up....goes off to some third-world country and signs a deal to haul coal from there (at ridiculous rates, which the German consumer has to pay) and marginally cleans the site after they finish the coal project.  On the other side of this story.....this open-pit method shocks a lot of Germans when they look at the image later. 

TB Story

My regional public TV news put this piece up today (HR, Hessen public TV). 

The cops are looking for a pair of women who came up on a woman having serious health issues yesterday....on local road L3413 at Groß-Umstadt.  It's a smaller town in southern Hessen....maybe 30 minutes south of Frankfurt.

The two women arrived to help some woman (older gal) who seemed awful sick.  Ambulance crew arrived and helped to carry the woman off to the hospital. 

Well...tests were done, and this older gal.....she has tuberculosis.  Yep, TB.

So the ambulance crew, the cops involved....they are all being observed and tested later.  They now want to find these two women who left, without giving their names to the cops.

A big deal?  Well, if you go back to the 1900 era....a lot of people died on a regular basis from TB.  Medical advancements occurred, and for the past eighty-odd years....it's been wiped-out.

Where did this German gal get the TB?  Unknown. 

The odd thing is that if you go and follow newspaper listings on this...not public TV usually....then you notice about every month there's some case that erupts...usually at some school, and it relates back to refugees who entered Germany and were never tested.  When I applied for my German visa.....no test for anything. 

These two women doing the right of helping the older gal?  Well....normally, it makes sense.  But now you kinda have to wonder about things like this.

Criticism over Merkel?

I pulled up a short article today via Focus (the German news magazine).

There is a piece laid out by the former CDU Party foreign policy adviser....Norbert Röttgen.

What he suggests is that the German government (mostly referring to Chancellor Angela Merkel) is no longer able to handle or find any will.....for political change.

Through various words spoken to an interview in BILD....he suggests that the time has come to have a term limit for Chancellor....suggesting two terms (four years each).

In his commentary, he says that the nation has been in a somewhat crisis stage for several years, and unable to move forward.

The suggestion of state elections having an effect?  Well....in a couple of weeks, we will complete the Bavarian and Hessen election.  There are three state elections slated for 2019....all three in eastern Germany and figured to be dismal showings for the CDU Party (to be honest, for the SPD Party....the partner), as well.  Even the EU election in June....might not go that well.  The CDU Party is in some form of a decline, but you can suggest that over the SPD Party as well.  Combined, in the next election....they won't clear 50-percent of the national vote, and I think that is a major issue (never happened since WW II).

I noticed back in the summer of 2017....before the German national election, a poll came up and suggested that sixty-percent of Germans were ready for a new Chancellor and a new direction.  The problem is....no one really stands out from any party, and the public is asking for someone that simply doesn't exist.  The 2021 national election?  Presently, from the one SPD sure candidate and the primary CDU candidate being discussed.....you will get Merkel version 2.0 (carbon copy).  Selling people on either character will be difficult.

The idea of term limits?  It rarely comes up..  If you wrote that law, then you'd probably have to apply it for mayors and state premier-presidents, and I don't think folks want that established.

Where this term limit idea would fit on priorities of regular people?  Way down around problem 700, I think.  Most people just want a Chancellor who isn't an idiot....hasn't any scandals....doesn't drink excessively....and dresses in executive clothing.

Folks will discuss what Norbert Röttgen said over the weekend, and the intellectual folks will say he has a point in that things politically aren't changing much, but no one is really forcing the issue.

Bavarian Voting Trend and Poll

We are approximately ten days away from the state election in Bavaria, so things are tense about polling numbers.  The current poll by ARD (public TV, Channel One)?

CSU (the cousin party of the CDU) sits at 33-percent.  The Green Party has climbed up and rests at 18-percent.  The AfD Party?  Sitting at 10-percent.  The SPD Party is 11-percent.  The Free Party?  They are showing an all-time record for Bavaria at 11-percent.  The FDP folks?  At 6-percent.  And the Linke Party rests at 4.5-percent (which would not be enough, you need 5-percent to get representation). 

If the election goes like this?  The CSU would win but have to form a coalition, and there are three basic scenarios: (1) Partner up with the Greens, (2) partner with the Free Party and the SPD, or (3) partner up with the FDP party and either the SPD or Free Party.  The idea of a CSU-AfD partnership?  Pretty much discounted at this point.

What can be said over national politics with this marginal win by the CSU?  There is discontent building in a public sense over the direction of Berlin (not just Merkel but aimed at the entire CDU and SPD).  The Greens with a 16-percent or better win, would attract some voters in the future from the SPD....to cross lines and vote Green.

Germany and Religion

If you went back to the Germany of the 1400s, you'd find a highly enthusiastic group of religious people....mostly all Catholic in nature.  Around the 1525 era, things began to shift with the arrival of Martin Luther, the printed Bible being available to the public, and after the 1619-1650 Thirty Years War....a religious evolution was playing out.

Today's Germany?  Out of the 82-million in population....between the Catholic Church and Lutherans....they make approximately 56-percent of the country.  If you go state to state (using all 16 German states), it's a varied picture.  Islamic population?  It's nearing 5-percent of the population, and again....state-by-state, there is a varied picture.  So you come to remainder....either non-religious or atheists, roughly 35-percent. 

Why so many non-religious types?  I think there are three common denominators.  The first has to do with the two world wars, and the  personal anger that mounted with the death and destruction.  Some people simply loss their trust in religion to provide answers.  The second reason has to do the church tax business, which was the replacement for people to donate to the church.  If you felt disagreement with the spending methods of your religious group....the only way to avoid the tax....was to become non-religious.  Finally, the third reason has to involve the Thirty Years War and this general negativity that existed after that era.  Roughly half of the general population of Germany in the mid-1600s....compared against 1615....didn't exist anymore.  Between the war, starvation, and the plague....a major part of the population weren't there.  I think for decades after that....hostility brewed and to some degree....a lack of trust exists even today.

How big of a difference exists in each of the sixteen German states?  This is a curious thing.  In most of the states of old DDR (East Germany), non-religious numbers are a minimum of 60-percent.  If you were looking for the majority of Muslims?  Hamburg and North Rhineland Westphalia have the bigger population (nearing 10-percent).  Looking for the more Catholic population?  Bavaria is near 50-percent, and the Saarland is approaching 70-percent of the local population. 

The Jews?  It's not something that widely discussed, but when you go back to the 1920s to 1930s....the population of the Jewish population only numbered in the 600,000 to 700,000 in Germany (the number varies based on which historian is discussing the matter).  Today?  It's estimated that the number is between 100,000 to 200,000. 

The Muslim numbers?  Few ever grasp that there are nine separate and recognized Muslim groups in Germany today....the smallest being the Ibadi group with less than 300 members, and the largest being the Sunni group with 2.6-million.  The idea that religion speaks with one voice?  No.  The Sunni folks might make up near 50-percent of the religious group but the combined numbers of the eight other groups make almost 50-percent of the group.

Cults and sects?  In the mid-1990s, the German government came to realize that various groups existed and some were a 'threat' to society.  Around twenty years ago, the German court system came to say that the government did have the right to monitor and oversee any religion that they felt was a potential threat to the safety of people. 

It's safe to say that whatever evolution started in the early 1500s.....still continues on today. 

The Poverty Story

The other night, I sat and watched a piece off commercial German TV (RTL network) from the 'Armes Deutschland'.....translated to mean the 'poor of Germany'.  Basically, it's a reality show where the TV crew follows these dozen-odd poverty folks around and reports on their woes and suffering.

To be honest, I watch a fair amount of shows like this each month (maybe eight to twelve hours per month), if you count the various networks and all of their reality shows on poverty that relate to each other.

Initially, I questioned how this was entertaining, or of any interest.  After three or four viewings, I came to this different view of poverty-reality-TV.  For about a third of the people involved, I felt some compassion and was agreeable to the idea that they needed extra help, and they were probably the type of people that you could pick up.....reconstruct their miserable lives of poverty, and they'd become productive people in society (at least by German standards). The rest?  Between drug, alcohol, lack of desire, no willingness to work.....it was a hopeless case.

This week, I caught a brief ten minute stretch of this Armes Deutschland show, and 'Martin' (my name for the German young guy....probably around age 23)....had come to a local barber for a haircut.  The TV folks let you know....he'd already done two years in some German prison for some crime.  He's got some girlfriend who is now pregnant, and he's unemployed....on Hartz IV (German welfare).   His apprentice work deal?  Well....he quit that.  No one explains why, and that's left to be a mystery.

So he's shown up for this haircut, and the lady barber is discussing his economic issues.  It's the middle of the month, and all he has left in his pocket is 20 Euro (roughly 25 US dollars).  The rest is spent (you get the impression that a fair amount was spent on cigarettes and alcohol).

The shame of being on welfare?  For the barber, in some friendly but blunt German way....she hints that if you were working and making a regular income.....you wouldn't feel shame.  'Martin'?  Well....he didn't feel any shame.

In Martin's estimation....if you couldn't clear 25 Euro an hour (with taxes, pension, medical insurance all coming against your income)....WHY WORK?  Naturally, this really struck the barber lady in a negative way.

Here is the basis of the system today, where a fair number of people believe that income levels are screwed up and they refuse to participate in work if you are marginally making enough to just barely survive.  If that's the case, in their mind....why bother working, and just allow the public to support you while you sit at home.

Here's the thing....you've easily got a million-plus Germans (not immigrants or migrants) sitting at home and receiving Hartz IV welfare payments to survive.  Most of these people are probably capable of working....maybe they need a year of skill-craft training or some certification effort, but they could work.  Yet they sit at home on welfare. The general public?  They want some effort by the government to 'drag' these people back into life and force them into some work situation.

My suggestion....evaluate those with health issues and separate them from the rest.  Then bring the work-capable crowd into their local city unemployment office and announce a new procedure.  You show up daily at a warehouse....hand over your cellphones at the front door....then stay within the enclosure for eight hours.  Give them a sandwich and drink at lunch, but mandate that they stay there (no TV, radio, or internet access), or accept some job-placement deal or training school situation.

People watching this reality show will sit and shake their heads....it's a negative society that is existing now, and tax revenue is required to support it.

Foreign Prison Population Story

There's a story that came out a couple of days ago via the Berliner Morganpost (their primary newspaper in Berlin) that has been on my mind.

They reported that in the spring of 2018.....just over 50-percent of convicted (note, not suspects but actually convicted) prisoners in the regional jail-system....are foreigners (without a German passport or citizenship).  And if you count 'in-custody' (meaning those who have been arrested and being held until their court case or some judge releases them)....then you get up to around 75-percent.

Around the city-state, there are seven prisons, and almost 4,000 total folks are being held. 

The odd fator here which caught my attention is that they have more than ninety different nationalities within this prison system.  They admit that most (a majority of the group) come from Turkey. 

Just on communication issues and being able to have some lawyer handle their work....you've got major issues.  All of this has to be taxing the legal profession and challenging judges to ensure the guy understands what is going on.

The question here is....what happened?  How did this shift to a mostly migrant/immigrant prison population really occur?

I would suggest three causes:

1.  A lot of folks who came in this 2013-to-present 'wave'....were migrant/refugee men (not families or women), and they came without any moral authority or guidance in their lives.  So when stupid opportunities arose (drugs, crime, assaults, etc).....they made decisions that you'd typically expect out of young men. 

2.  A lot of immigrants and asylum-seekers came with plan 'A', and discovered in a short period of time that their plan 'A' really didn't consider all of the problems of re-locating to a new homeland.  You toss in language classes, higher cost of living, low wages, stress and a year of their life wasted in compounds (waiting on visas)....and this pay-off simply simply wasn't there.  So some went onto plan 'B' and perhaps even plan 'C'. 

3.  Drugs.  If you go to a lot of the countries in northern Africa, and the Middle East....you just didn't have the drug potential that you find in Germany today.  You go down to the local drug-district in Frankfurt or Hamburg.....in less than two minutes, you've got your 'hit' for the day.  After the 'hit', you go out and do something stupid, or something with consequences tied to your act.  I think a fair number of these folks found drugs to be an outlet for their limited circumstances or lack of success in life. 

No one says that category of crimes that these foreign individuals have committed, but it would be curious if you broke this down and spoke to the trend.  The odds of this continuing?  I'd suggest that there is nothing to hinder this trend. 

Diesel Crisis Continued

A lot of chatter overnight about diesel solutions in Germany, and what the Merkel-coalition government has decided (more or less).  Some of the details....I noticed via a short piece in Focus magazine this morning.

They say.....the car companies should be 'expected' to upgrade hardware, to avoid the city ban activity going on.

Legally?  The car companies haven't been that agreeable on the kit-business.  Based on various discussions that I've seen in the past year....the companies just aren't that confident about how the kits will work....if the kits might cause engine problems....if the kits reduce fuel mileage....and the duration of the kits (one engineer I viewed, suggested that you might have to replace the kit every three to five years, and he wondered who'd pay for kit number two and three). 

So far, the government hasn't written a law which would define how this would all work.  Could the government actually make a bigger mess out of this?  Well....that's the funny thing about this whole crisis that has been invited and forced on by the EU.  You could be standing there with a ruined vehicle worth 5,000 Euro (6k US dollars) and the kit was forced onto you by the German government.....so the question is....would they pay the value of the car?  You just don't know.

Possible Murder?

I noticed a twenty-line piece in Focus (the German news magazine) this morning, which probably would be worth a 400-page book, or made into a four-star movie.

So about a month ago down in the Karlsruhe region (SW Germany), there's this local gunsmith and hunter.....Simon Paulu, who just up and disappears.  Cops get called in, and find a fair amount of blood at the apartment.  But no body.

There is some belief that a rug from the house is missing, and maybe it was used to transport the body out of the house. 

The thing that bothers the cops about this missing guy....he had a collection of thirty-odd weapons that he kept in the house.  None of those are there, so it's kinda felt that they are taken. 

Black-market activity?  You have to wonder if he had gotten into some funny business, and knew too much of a situation going on.  The type and serials of the weapons missing?  The cops probably have a very good idea of what was taken because of registration requirements. 

Poll Story

It was a page three type story on several outlets today in Germany.  Some polling group asked the question....under any possible circumstances....could you vote AfD (the anti-immigration political party).  Seventy-one percent said absolutely NO condition could lead them to vote AfD.  So 29-percent says yes....they might be persuaded.

This was hyped-up as a positive because it hints there is peak to the AfD 'climb' by the journalists and parties which are against the gains of the AfD.

I sat and pondered over it for an hour or two.  There are three problems with this poll.

First, presently, the AfD trend polling says somewhere around 16 to 18 percent of the public will vote for the AfD in the next election.  If they did climb up to 29-percent?  Well....it creates various problems for the CDU and SPD parties.....which would be where the votes would come from.  You would basically marginalize both major parties.....maybe combined....down to 35-percent of the national vote. 

Second, this anticipates that the AfD Party will not gather secondary topics and start to interest other fringe votes that sit out there.  You can't suggest that this won't happen.

Third and final.....as assaults, knife attacks, and robberies continue.....people will change their perception of crime, migration and immigration into Germany.....so I wouldn't suggest the peak is 29-percent.

It does help to boost up the public appeal to the normal political parties with some like this.  But polls are mostly worthless.