Sunday, October 14, 2018

The Bavarian State Election

So it's mostly wrapped up:

CSU Party (sister party of the CDU): 35.3-percent (lowest for them since WW II)
SPD Party: 9.9-percent (dismal showing as well)
Greens:  18.5-percent
Linke Party: 3.5-percent (not enough to get seats in the state Parliament)
AfD: 10.9-percent
FDP: 5.1-percent
Free Voters Party: 11.6-percent
Others: 5.2-percent (all of the 'cats and dogs' of various parties with marginal showing)

What this all means?

1.  The CSU cannot run the government of Bavaria any longer with just their party (they typically took 50-percent or more in all previous elections.

2.  Partnering up?  Various combo's exist to help the CSU reach the 50-percent level: (A) CSU-SPD-FDP. (B) CSU-Greens.  (C) CSU-Free Voters-FDP.  (D) CSU-Free Voters-SPD.

3. The loss of voters for the CSU?  They appear mostly to have gone to the AfD and Free Voters Party.  There is some disenchantment....partly because of the CSU fight of the past four months.

4.  The loss of voters to SPD?  Same story because negative coverage.  My guess is that they are fairly unhappy with the results. According to one stat record....there's actually near 100,000 SPD voters who crossed the line and voted for CSU in this election

5  The AfD?  It's a decent showing but limited in terms of seats gained.

So you come to the effect on the Hessen state election in the next two weeks?  I think the CDU will have problems, and the Greens might be on a hyped-up adventure against the SPD.  The Free Voters Party getting a good showing?  In 2013, they did a 1.3-percent showing (leading me to speculate that if they got four-percent....they'd be exceptionally happy).

No comments: