It was a page three type story on several outlets today in Germany. Some polling group asked the question....under any possible circumstances....could you vote AfD (the anti-immigration political party). Seventy-one percent said absolutely NO condition could lead them to vote AfD. So 29-percent says yes....they might be persuaded.
This was hyped-up as a positive because it hints there is peak to the AfD 'climb' by the journalists and parties which are against the gains of the AfD.
I sat and pondered over it for an hour or two. There are three problems with this poll.
First, presently, the AfD trend polling says somewhere around 16 to 18 percent of the public will vote for the AfD in the next election. If they did climb up to 29-percent? Well....it creates various problems for the CDU and SPD parties.....which would be where the votes would come from. You would basically marginalize both major parties.....maybe combined....down to 35-percent of the national vote.
Second, this anticipates that the AfD Party will not gather secondary topics and start to interest other fringe votes that sit out there. You can't suggest that this won't happen.
Third and final.....as assaults, knife attacks, and robberies continue.....people will change their perception of crime, migration and immigration into Germany.....so I wouldn't suggest the peak is 29-percent.
It does help to boost up the public appeal to the normal political parties with some like this. But polls are mostly worthless.
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