We are approximately ten days away from the state election in Bavaria, so things are tense about polling numbers. The current poll by ARD (public TV, Channel One)?
CSU (the cousin party of the CDU) sits at 33-percent. The Green Party has climbed up and rests at 18-percent. The AfD Party? Sitting at 10-percent. The SPD Party is 11-percent. The Free Party? They are showing an all-time record for Bavaria at 11-percent. The FDP folks? At 6-percent. And the Linke Party rests at 4.5-percent (which would not be enough, you need 5-percent to get representation).
If the election goes like this? The CSU would win but have to form a coalition, and there are three basic scenarios: (1) Partner up with the Greens, (2) partner with the Free Party and the SPD, or (3) partner up with the FDP party and either the SPD or Free Party. The idea of a CSU-AfD partnership? Pretty much discounted at this point.
What can be said over national politics with this marginal win by the CSU? There is discontent building in a public sense over the direction of Berlin (not just Merkel but aimed at the entire CDU and SPD). The Greens with a 16-percent or better win, would attract some voters in the future from the SPD....to cross lines and vote Green.
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