The 'Big' Political Rumor

In the past month, this rumor has started up here in Germany....that Chancellor Merkel.....shortly after the EU election (early May) will give notice and retire by June (before the three German state elections in the fall).  The emphasis here on the rumor.....is that the new party chief of the CDU, Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer (AKK), would hold a party meeting, and hustle up a insider vote, to give her the Chancellor's job, without a national election.

So N-TV (commercial news in Germany) picked up the story this morning.  They say various officials within the SPD Party (the coalition partner with the CDU that lead the government) suggest that they will refuse to be part of the coalition in this case, with AKK.  They want a new national election.

The normal national election?  It would be in the fall of 2021.

What happens in this scenario, if Merkel retires, AKK arrives, and the SPD Party quits the coalition?  There are two scenarios that I would suggest.

First, AKK could approach the Green Party and FDP to form up, without calling for a national election.  If you remember the fall of 2017....Merkel tried to build a coalition with them, and that 'chat' failed after about eight weeks of talking.  The FDP has a fairly negative opinion of the Green agenda, and things just weren't going anywhere.

Would the FDP flip that now?  It's hard to say.  Maybe the FDP might approach this and demand three particular cabinet positions (Finance Minister might be one of them).  Immigration and asylum being a problem for the two to find agreement?  Yes, that's another issue.

Second, what about having another national election?  Using this scenario of an attempt to get the Greens and FDP to sign up....and that failing....the time schedule would lead to some national election in the October timeframe.  In the midst of these three German east German state elections?  Presently, the one predicted outcome of the three state elections is that the SPD won't win as much as they did five years ago.  That would really hurt the SPD, if there were a national election in the fall.  The likely party gaining?  The Greens.

All of this, in this second scenario....would lead to the CDU likely coming out ahead, but forced more or less...into a partnership with the Greens (and maybe the FDP). 

The odds on Merkel retiring?  It's an unknown factor....she hasn't come out to chat on the idea.  Might it be a bogus rumor?  Yes.  In fact, I suspect that the majority of SPD folks would have heartburn in dumping the coalition right now....there's nothing to be gained.