In my German town (Wiesbaden).....at least ten years ago.....most folks would have identified the entire area as 'safe'. You could walk around at 10PM anywhere in town, and not have any fear.
Things have changed over the last year or two....violent attacks and robberies have increased. The authorities....mostly the city political figures....are getting this impression that women are a bit stressed about this and how to deal with dangerous situations.
So, like you'd expect.....the city is organizing free seminars (named "Violence-See-Help")....to give out useful tips.
Naturally, you'd stand there and ask some stupid questions. An American would ask if there's any gun tips or such.....getting a stern look from the German.
In this case, they are running a four-hour seminar from trained staff from the city administration, the cops and various civic institutions (they don't say which ones, I should note). They intend to convey all the knowledge you'd need to handle appropriate behavior in dangerous situations.
The stress point of this, at least by what they've written in their advertisement.....you should feel willing and competent to help others. But I think they mean mostly to call the cops when under duress or threat.
Basically, it's a PR campaign to avoid the next step which would be arming or using pepper-spray, or whacking some foolish kid with a baseball bat.
Four hours with some some limited dramatic talk by the cops.....don't do anything to aggravate the aggressor, bring harm to the aggressor, or counter-assault the hoodlum threatening you.
You kinda have a shaken view of town now. It's just not 100-percent safe now. There's a neighborhood or two that you ought to avoid after dark. You wonder if its a trend or just a short-term thing.
As for me attending the seminar? If there's free coffee.....I might show up. My humble feeling is that I might be only one of four people sitting there, and the mayor could come over to let me know that he's all concerned about the safety of his city. I might not take it in a nice way, and let the guy know this was all a waste of time.
Friday, March 4, 2016
The EU Message to Immigrants
There's a decent piece over at Stern (a German magazine) today.....over the EU telling refugees that it's best not to make an attempt to enter Europe.
If you look up and down the normal route used along the Balkans for refugees....the EU Council President.....Donald Tusk.....noted that he is appealing to all migrants....no matter where they come from...."Don't come to Europe. You should believe that the smugglers will risk lives and money".
I sat and watched an interview from last weekend....an Iraqi guy who was fed up on Germany and finally leaving (going back to Iraq). It just wasn't the dream place that he was told about.
If you asked me to assess the problems of walking into Germany:
1. The cost of living. It'd shock anyone to realize the taxation level and standard cost for life.
2. Want a car? You'd best have some cash or figure at least a year of saving enough money to buy a car. Then you have to think about the weekly cost of fuel and general cost of insurance.
3. The dream job? Unless you've got some really special skill or upscale degree....you will be kinda shocked where you start out. Maybe you are willing to wait a decade for things to fall into place.....but while you wait.....you will be marginally living on that starter-salary.
4. Affordable apartments in any major urban area are non-existent. They were non-existent before you ever arrived here, and they will be non-existent after you leave.
5. Miserable climate? Go and get yourself used to bitter-cold winters and hot summers. Want a AC unit to keep the apartment cool in summer? You'd best have some extra cash to pay for the extra electricity. Want the place heated better in January? You'd best prepare for natural gas costs.
6. Used to Muslim traditions or holidays as being the country-norm? Well.....it won't be that way in Germany, and Germans will let you know that right off the bat.
7. Too much cleavage, boobs and skin shown on German women? Tough luck.
8. Dislike all the dogs being walked or sitting in the cafe or restaurant? Germans live like that.
9. German driving rules confusing? Well.....maybe after you've been here ten years....it'll make sense.
10. Getting the impression that German politicians are fake and fraudulent.....like in your old country? Well.....maybe they are the same.....no matter where you go.
Cynical? Me? Yeah. If you've made a bold decision to walk 1,500 miles and endear a fair amount of frustration....you'd best be sure of this being the right place and just accept everything that comes with the deal. If you decide that you screwed up.....well.....put the shoes on and walk somewhere else.
If you look up and down the normal route used along the Balkans for refugees....the EU Council President.....Donald Tusk.....noted that he is appealing to all migrants....no matter where they come from...."Don't come to Europe. You should believe that the smugglers will risk lives and money".
I sat and watched an interview from last weekend....an Iraqi guy who was fed up on Germany and finally leaving (going back to Iraq). It just wasn't the dream place that he was told about.
If you asked me to assess the problems of walking into Germany:
1. The cost of living. It'd shock anyone to realize the taxation level and standard cost for life.
2. Want a car? You'd best have some cash or figure at least a year of saving enough money to buy a car. Then you have to think about the weekly cost of fuel and general cost of insurance.
3. The dream job? Unless you've got some really special skill or upscale degree....you will be kinda shocked where you start out. Maybe you are willing to wait a decade for things to fall into place.....but while you wait.....you will be marginally living on that starter-salary.
4. Affordable apartments in any major urban area are non-existent. They were non-existent before you ever arrived here, and they will be non-existent after you leave.
5. Miserable climate? Go and get yourself used to bitter-cold winters and hot summers. Want a AC unit to keep the apartment cool in summer? You'd best have some extra cash to pay for the extra electricity. Want the place heated better in January? You'd best prepare for natural gas costs.
6. Used to Muslim traditions or holidays as being the country-norm? Well.....it won't be that way in Germany, and Germans will let you know that right off the bat.
7. Too much cleavage, boobs and skin shown on German women? Tough luck.
8. Dislike all the dogs being walked or sitting in the cafe or restaurant? Germans live like that.
9. German driving rules confusing? Well.....maybe after you've been here ten years....it'll make sense.
10. Getting the impression that German politicians are fake and fraudulent.....like in your old country? Well.....maybe they are the same.....no matter where you go.
Cynical? Me? Yeah. If you've made a bold decision to walk 1,500 miles and endear a fair amount of frustration....you'd best be sure of this being the right place and just accept everything that comes with the deal. If you decide that you screwed up.....well.....put the shoes on and walk somewhere else.
Thursday, March 3, 2016
The Saxony-Anhalt Polling Data
It's a shocker for most folks.
The CDU will carry roughly 31 percent and be the leader.
Behind them, was the expected Linke Party with 21 percent. The SPD, a distant third with 15 percent.
Then, there's the AfD with 19 percent, and the Greens with 5.5 percent. The FDP will likely not be able to cross the five-percent line to have representation in the state assembly.
Based on this, there might be a problem with the coalition government idea.....the CDU and SPD. Depending on how close they come.....this coalition might not have enough votes to team up.
So, then you start looking at a CDU and Linke Party team.....which would be a huge shock for just about everyone. Presently, the CDU has made strong messages that it would not team up with the AfD, and I'd expect them to stay with that theme.
With ten days to go.....I might forecast the AfD Party to get one to two percent more. If the CDU doesn't cross the 30 percent point.....it'd be a significant negative episode and be fairly hard to explain on national TV after the results are put up on the screen.
Public Involvement
Public frustrations with the immigration, asylum, and refugee situation in Germany goes into a lot of directions.
Most Germans have come view the management of the accommodation deal as screwed-up, thoughtless, and lacking.
Things reached a stage up in north Germany.....around the Hamburg area.....that a citizen's initiative occurred. They put up a petition and needed just 10,000 signatures to get this on a local ballot. Well....they got 26,000 signatures in a matter of days. The political folks (the SPD and Greens who run a coalition government).....were a bit surprised and weren't that happy over public involvement in something that they considered their business.
So, this initiative is about banning massive or large-sized refugee centers. It further states that each center contain no more than 300 refugees, and that each such 'residence' must be at least a kilometer apart.
The suggestion will create some interesting problems to occur. You'd have to have a planning team that has a fair amount of power.....who notes when a center has reached capacity....then reroutes people to other locations.
A number of people have commented about the large sized centers and the out-of-control atmosphere that breeds frustration and anger among the occupants.
Acceptance and putting this to a vote? That's not clear. The local Hamburg Parliament could accept or reject such a vote.
One could look at various efforts around Germany and they tried to make use of old military bases and warehouse-like buildings....to save money and simplify the process. This created situations where not just hundreds....but in some cases....thousands of people....were pushed into an atmosphere which probably wasn't the best situation.
The negative though with this 300 person limit is that you will likely have to spend additional funding, hire more support staff, and move into some neighborhoods which felt they were safe and would never have such centers in their neck-of-the-woods.
It'll be curious to see how this develops.
Most Germans have come view the management of the accommodation deal as screwed-up, thoughtless, and lacking.
Things reached a stage up in north Germany.....around the Hamburg area.....that a citizen's initiative occurred. They put up a petition and needed just 10,000 signatures to get this on a local ballot. Well....they got 26,000 signatures in a matter of days. The political folks (the SPD and Greens who run a coalition government).....were a bit surprised and weren't that happy over public involvement in something that they considered their business.
So, this initiative is about banning massive or large-sized refugee centers. It further states that each center contain no more than 300 refugees, and that each such 'residence' must be at least a kilometer apart.
The suggestion will create some interesting problems to occur. You'd have to have a planning team that has a fair amount of power.....who notes when a center has reached capacity....then reroutes people to other locations.
A number of people have commented about the large sized centers and the out-of-control atmosphere that breeds frustration and anger among the occupants.
Acceptance and putting this to a vote? That's not clear. The local Hamburg Parliament could accept or reject such a vote.
One could look at various efforts around Germany and they tried to make use of old military bases and warehouse-like buildings....to save money and simplify the process. This created situations where not just hundreds....but in some cases....thousands of people....were pushed into an atmosphere which probably wasn't the best situation.
The negative though with this 300 person limit is that you will likely have to spend additional funding, hire more support staff, and move into some neighborhoods which felt they were safe and would never have such centers in their neck-of-the-woods.
It'll be curious to see how this develops.
Wednesday, March 2, 2016
Breedlove's Comment
Today, there was this comment made by the US military general (four-star) heading up the European HQ's.....Philip Breedlove..
He's a Air Force guy, and has a background in technology.
He made a pretty tough comment over the immigration and asylum issue facing Europe, and how a lot of this was likely orchestrated by Russia.....using the Syrian episode as a crisis to ship folks in this direction.
It's a comment that will likely get played a good bit, and put some German journalists in a tough position....because they really don't want to defend Putin or Russia.
How correct might this allegation be? Here's the problem.....if all of the refugees were from the same area....he might have a point. But they come from North Africa, Central Africa, Albania, Iraq, Pakistan, Syria, and at least a dozen other countries. Thinking that Putin could orchestrate a mess like this? It'd be like someone trying to rig an entire season to ensure that the University of Alabama never got above 10th place in the NCAA bowl process.
The other problem here is that we can be pretty sure that the CIA was helping to push weapons out of Libya to the Syrian rebels.....who kinda started the civil war as part of some White House special project. So, no.....unless Putin was part of the CIA weapons from Libya to Syria gimmick.....this accusation doesn't work too well.
Breedlove giving traction to the White House attempt to label Putin once again as the bad-guy? Well....maybe. If this had invoked some Ukraine issues.....Breedlove might have had a better allegation to make and have some bearing to truth. But this wasn't a Ukraine-related comment.....it was strictly for Europe itself.
He's a Air Force guy, and has a background in technology.
He made a pretty tough comment over the immigration and asylum issue facing Europe, and how a lot of this was likely orchestrated by Russia.....using the Syrian episode as a crisis to ship folks in this direction.
It's a comment that will likely get played a good bit, and put some German journalists in a tough position....because they really don't want to defend Putin or Russia.
How correct might this allegation be? Here's the problem.....if all of the refugees were from the same area....he might have a point. But they come from North Africa, Central Africa, Albania, Iraq, Pakistan, Syria, and at least a dozen other countries. Thinking that Putin could orchestrate a mess like this? It'd be like someone trying to rig an entire season to ensure that the University of Alabama never got above 10th place in the NCAA bowl process.
The other problem here is that we can be pretty sure that the CIA was helping to push weapons out of Libya to the Syrian rebels.....who kinda started the civil war as part of some White House special project. So, no.....unless Putin was part of the CIA weapons from Libya to Syria gimmick.....this accusation doesn't work too well.
Breedlove giving traction to the White House attempt to label Putin once again as the bad-guy? Well....maybe. If this had invoked some Ukraine issues.....Breedlove might have had a better allegation to make and have some bearing to truth. But this wasn't a Ukraine-related comment.....it was strictly for Europe itself.
Tuesday, March 1, 2016
Defining Drachenfutter
It's a word that probably won't be uttered by most Germans....and when they use it, it's likely to be a guy using it.
So, it refers to a gift that you had to come up with.....to appease your significant other (usually after a fight, argument or forgetting something important). The English meaning would be.....a gift to appease the dragon.
This doesn't mean you refer to the wife or girlfriend as a dragon, but you might want to bring the issue up with your work-buddy or neighbor.....so you'd just use some slang term to hint why you had to buy the new car, the new living room furniture, etc.
So, it refers to a gift that you had to come up with.....to appease your significant other (usually after a fight, argument or forgetting something important). The English meaning would be.....a gift to appease the dragon.
This doesn't mean you refer to the wife or girlfriend as a dragon, but you might want to bring the issue up with your work-buddy or neighbor.....so you'd just use some slang term to hint why you had to buy the new car, the new living room furniture, etc.
Macedonia Fence Issues
I sat last night and watched the public-run Channel One (ARD) news (the late show), and it bulked up a good bit on the immigrants stuck at the Greek border with Macedonia and kinda surprised that the Macedonian authorities had put up a fence and had real cops there to maintain security. Pepper spray was used (at least it looked like it). Some immigrant gal had fainted and the camera guy for ARD got a big close-up of her for the German spectators to get hyped or angry.
The thing is.....this talk of the Macedonia border shutting down....has been going on for two months. Everyone and their brother knew that the day was coming and it wasn't much of a surprise. If you didn't make an effort to cross back in December or January.....you pretty much lose all your big chances.
At some point, after the protest crowd had done enough damage.....it appeared that the Macedonia cops decided to open the gate, but this was simply a short-term thing (I think) until more cops arrived.
Right now, the biggest hostility down in the region is on the island of Kos.....where refugees initially arrive from Turkey on rafts and try to make the first step toward mainland Greece. Just about everyone (at least Greeks) on Kos is frustrated by the mess. They see tourist number decreasing. Toward the end of 2015, the experts claimed that 2015 had seen roughly a three-percent decrease in tourism. A number of folks who own businesses on Kos still think it looks badly for them in 2016.
So far, no Greek politician or party has stepped up to really change the flow of refugees.....which is kinda surprising. My guess is that there's a fair amount of cash flow related to the refugees and some folks really don't want the pattern to shift right now.
What happens if the Greek-Macedonia path is shut down? I've sat there for months looking at the changing landscape and political frustrations in the region. Sooner or later.....that path will shut down. I'm kinda shocked.....no German journalist or intellectual ever sits there and analyzes this to the next path.
My guess? Someone will find an older freighter and start to stage 500 refugees somewhere off the coast of Albania or Italy. You are talking about two or three days but they could easily get to some point.....20 miles off the coast of Albania, and start dropping people off there. You'd have to up your cost factor.....probably doubling or tripling the money necessary.
The thing is.....this talk of the Macedonia border shutting down....has been going on for two months. Everyone and their brother knew that the day was coming and it wasn't much of a surprise. If you didn't make an effort to cross back in December or January.....you pretty much lose all your big chances.
At some point, after the protest crowd had done enough damage.....it appeared that the Macedonia cops decided to open the gate, but this was simply a short-term thing (I think) until more cops arrived.
Right now, the biggest hostility down in the region is on the island of Kos.....where refugees initially arrive from Turkey on rafts and try to make the first step toward mainland Greece. Just about everyone (at least Greeks) on Kos is frustrated by the mess. They see tourist number decreasing. Toward the end of 2015, the experts claimed that 2015 had seen roughly a three-percent decrease in tourism. A number of folks who own businesses on Kos still think it looks badly for them in 2016.
So far, no Greek politician or party has stepped up to really change the flow of refugees.....which is kinda surprising. My guess is that there's a fair amount of cash flow related to the refugees and some folks really don't want the pattern to shift right now.
What happens if the Greek-Macedonia path is shut down? I've sat there for months looking at the changing landscape and political frustrations in the region. Sooner or later.....that path will shut down. I'm kinda shocked.....no German journalist or intellectual ever sits there and analyzes this to the next path.
My guess? Someone will find an older freighter and start to stage 500 refugees somewhere off the coast of Albania or Italy. You are talking about two or three days but they could easily get to some point.....20 miles off the coast of Albania, and start dropping people off there. You'd have to up your cost factor.....probably doubling or tripling the money necessary.
Wald Kind
While I was off in Australia on vacation.....I flipped on the TV one night and got SBS.....the marginalized Australia public-run TV network. Generally, if you ask any Australian about it.....they will say that roughly one-percent of population watches SBS on occasion and it's about the most worthless part of tax-revenue spending in Australia.
Well.....all that said and such.....I sat and watched a 20-minute documentary piece done by some Australian guy on Denmark and Germany. Yeah, I had traveled 15,000 kilometers.....to watch a documentary on Germany.
The subject? Waldkind. The forest children.
Years ago, in Denmark....they started up this kindergarten for four to six year old kids. No grammar, no math, no classroom knowledge.....just practical knowledge on living in the woods.
Yeah, I know.....this sounds pretty strange.
So, the idea is that you have a kid and at 7:30 in the morning.....you drop this kid off at a cabin or hut at the edge of the village. There will be this guy in a wool jacket and heavy boots. Your kid will be dressed for winter weather. For the next five hours, this guy will lead a band of thirty-odd kids (from his hut) through the woods....in summer, fall, winter and spring. No warm cozy hut.....no playground. Just the woods.
They showed the next scene. Here was Jurgen (some kid about five years old), who'd climbed up some thin tree and was hanging onto some branch about thirty-feet of the ground. The tree was bending a good six feet in one direction and on the life-in-balance numbers.....I'd say that the kid was pushing a "NINE" on risk and danger. The wool jacket boss guy didn't say anything or yell at the kid. He just explained to the reporter.....you need to let kids do things like this and learn from their mistakes.
The next scene was a fallen tree with tons of limbs sticking out and great potential for getting hurt, and thirty kids climbing all over the thing.
The next scene? They'd reached some point where the wool jacket guy had handed out knives and kids were whittling away on sticks.....with sharp knives (five and six year old kids).
The reporter asked if the guy had ever had an injured kid. The wool jacket guy smiled and said about twenty years ago.....he had some adult who had accidentally run over a kid's foot. That was the only time that he'd gone to the hospital with a kid.
The reporter then asked a health expert about this business. They responded that it was a curious thing.....kids who went through this two-year experience....tended to boost their immune system and avoid colds.
For me, I was kinda amazed. You couldn't do something like this in Alabama, for the simple reason that we'd go the next step or two beyond expectations. We'd be the ones who noted the wool jacket boss wasn't looking and take off for the next valley and get lost. We'd also be the ones to pick up snakes, or jump down into fifty-foot pits. We'd also be the ones who attempted to jump from one tree to another and break both legs as we fell.
Here in this Denmark operation (similar in nature to the German ones).....whatever the wool jacket guy said....was absolutely minded. No disrespect to the guy, crossing lines, or going beyond the rules of the day. That impressed me.
It would be curious to take this kid in twenty years time and evaluate their mental side and ability to handle stress and chaos. My thinking is that the kid has got some built-in ability given to him by the months in this forest 'training-camp' and it might be worth a million bucks.
Well.....all that said and such.....I sat and watched a 20-minute documentary piece done by some Australian guy on Denmark and Germany. Yeah, I had traveled 15,000 kilometers.....to watch a documentary on Germany.
The subject? Waldkind. The forest children.
Years ago, in Denmark....they started up this kindergarten for four to six year old kids. No grammar, no math, no classroom knowledge.....just practical knowledge on living in the woods.
Yeah, I know.....this sounds pretty strange.
So, the idea is that you have a kid and at 7:30 in the morning.....you drop this kid off at a cabin or hut at the edge of the village. There will be this guy in a wool jacket and heavy boots. Your kid will be dressed for winter weather. For the next five hours, this guy will lead a band of thirty-odd kids (from his hut) through the woods....in summer, fall, winter and spring. No warm cozy hut.....no playground. Just the woods.
They showed the next scene. Here was Jurgen (some kid about five years old), who'd climbed up some thin tree and was hanging onto some branch about thirty-feet of the ground. The tree was bending a good six feet in one direction and on the life-in-balance numbers.....I'd say that the kid was pushing a "NINE" on risk and danger. The wool jacket boss guy didn't say anything or yell at the kid. He just explained to the reporter.....you need to let kids do things like this and learn from their mistakes.
The next scene was a fallen tree with tons of limbs sticking out and great potential for getting hurt, and thirty kids climbing all over the thing.
The next scene? They'd reached some point where the wool jacket guy had handed out knives and kids were whittling away on sticks.....with sharp knives (five and six year old kids).
The reporter asked if the guy had ever had an injured kid. The wool jacket guy smiled and said about twenty years ago.....he had some adult who had accidentally run over a kid's foot. That was the only time that he'd gone to the hospital with a kid.
The reporter then asked a health expert about this business. They responded that it was a curious thing.....kids who went through this two-year experience....tended to boost their immune system and avoid colds.
For me, I was kinda amazed. You couldn't do something like this in Alabama, for the simple reason that we'd go the next step or two beyond expectations. We'd be the ones who noted the wool jacket boss wasn't looking and take off for the next valley and get lost. We'd also be the ones to pick up snakes, or jump down into fifty-foot pits. We'd also be the ones who attempted to jump from one tree to another and break both legs as we fell.
Here in this Denmark operation (similar in nature to the German ones).....whatever the wool jacket guy said....was absolutely minded. No disrespect to the guy, crossing lines, or going beyond the rules of the day. That impressed me.
It would be curious to take this kid in twenty years time and evaluate their mental side and ability to handle stress and chaos. My thinking is that the kid has got some built-in ability given to him by the months in this forest 'training-camp' and it might be worth a million bucks.
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