Thursday, March 3, 2016

The Saxony-Anhalt Polling Data

ARD (Channel One, state-run German TV) did up a new poll data situation for Saxony-Anhalt (the 3rd state with an election in ten days).

It's a shocker for most folks.

The CDU will carry roughly 31 percent and be the leader.

Behind them, was the expected Linke Party with 21 percent.  The SPD, a distant third with 15 percent.

Then, there's the AfD with 19 percent, and the Greens with 5.5 percent.  The FDP will likely not be able to cross the five-percent line to have representation in the state assembly.

Based on this, there might be a problem with the coalition government idea.....the CDU and SPD.  Depending on how close they come.....this coalition might not have enough votes to team up.

So, then you start looking at a CDU and Linke Party team.....which would be a huge shock for just about everyone.  Presently, the CDU has made strong messages that it would not team up with the AfD, and I'd expect them to stay with that theme.

With ten days to go.....I might forecast the AfD Party to get one to two percent more.  If the CDU doesn't cross the 30 percent'd be a significant negative episode and be fairly hard to explain on national TV after the results are put up on the screen.

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