The Big Secret

This morning's Bild (a major German newspaper) spoke of a couple of immigration events underway by the German government.  Some are a bit interesting.

There is apparently some type of chat going on between Germany and a couple of unnamed countries.  They are working out the return situation of thousands of 'rejected' asylum seekers.   What the talk centers on is how the German government will utilize the Bundeswehr (German military) and it's Transall aircraft to transport the rejected applicants to their homeland.

If you look at the past month.....the Balkans has been put on 'safe' country list and if you apply as a citizen from that region....there's almost a zero-percent chance of Germany accepting you.  Based on statistics that the Germans have used in public....roughly thirty-percent of the 850,000 to 1.5 million refugees fall under the Balkans group.  So you can add up the numbers and come to around 240,000 folks easily being on the 'quick-to-go' list.

I pulled up the statistics of the Transall (C-160).  Generally, it's between 61 and 88 people it can carry....depending on the arrangement.  Paratrooper-wise.....88.  I'm guessing because we could be talking of a 90-minute flight (from Bavaria to the Balkins)....you'd have to have regular seating and thus be nearer to 61 passengers.

You can do the math with ten Transall aircraft at work each morning (610 passengers) and probably and afternoon flight (another 610 passengers)....to come up to around 1,220 people per day.  In one month....you might be able to move roughly 32,000 people.  There are reported to be 56 total Transall aircraft in service.  One might take a guess that they'd try to use forty of them....thus being able to move over 120,000 people in the first month.  So....if everything worked well and no legal issues popped up....maybe in two months....they would completed the mission.

Course, you might be thinking and pondering over this....would people just readily accept the deportation and climb onto the C-160 Transall?  Well.  No.

So, there's also talk that deportation orders for individuals will NOT be announced until the very last minute and thus, there's no way that the guy will walk off or escape from the camp.

This idea might work well on day one.  But as you progress to day three and four, and people kinda figure things out, and social media gets heavily used....things will go into a spiral.

You can imagine the news media being manipulated....women crying out and screaming as they get dragged out to some bus going to the local runway, and guys fighting to escape the fenced area.  It'll be like some Jewish concentration camp scene out of the 1930s.

The legal machine going into action to protect individuals from deportation?  I'd take a guess that hundreds of activists will become part of the image.  They might be stupid enough to block roads to the runways or try to sabotage the Bundeswehr aircraft.  Legal action will likely take place and try to stall the military plan.

Bild does hint in their article....to a slight degree....that legal minds within the German government are already considering ways to restrict any and all legal objections to might come up over deportations....by the applicants themselves or by the German activists.  No one says much over how this would occur and I suspect the German high court will get dragged into the middle of this quickly.  But from my observation of the high court....they are rarely ever quick to review and issue orders....so they might issue a stay of a year....just to read the material and study the problem.

What happens as plan deports the Balkans crowd?  Well, there are three aspects to this outcome.  Camps across Germany will suddenly decrease in size and the cost factor will become less.  Some would suggest this is a major positive.  Instead of dealing with a 1.5 million number....the political folks can now say it's only three-quarters of that number....making them look better on national TV as they proudly say the plan is working.  Finally, you come to this 'label' business....as you bundle up these people (perhaps even in handcuffs to get them to the plane).....there will be comparisons to 1939 and the Jews being hustled off to trains.  The Balkans crowd will say they won't behave like orderly Jews and just accept this....they will hinder the deportation every step of the way.  Looking bad for the Germans?  Well.  Yeah.

Why advertise any of this planning, or talk to Bild over the ultra-secret operations being put together?  It's hard to figure unless someone dislikes the planning or is hoping to slam Merkel's strategy once again.

After you read through all of this....you just sit there and wonder how this would all work, and in a peaceful fashion.  The answer is that it just can't end peacefully, and a lot of disgruntled people will let you know about their hurt feelings.....refugees and Germans.

UPDATE: This afternoon, numerous German papers say that various commercial airlines will be used as well....so it's not just the German Air Force.  No cost is being discussed on this.