I suspect that what will happen in this scenario is that the US will ease into a different mindset....closing most US remaining bases....not just in Germany and Italy, but including Turkey, the Netherlands and so on.
There probably will be some agreement to still exist in NATO, and play out one or two major exercises a year....but this in-Europe deployment business will finally conclude.
To be honest, back in the 1990s there should have been some decisions made, but the Balkan crisis period prevented this type of process from occurring.
Russia still a threat? I'd offer the observation that most of their hardware built from the 1990s on....has been either destroyed or lost. They continue the marginal war with mostly hardware from the depot....from the 1980s and even the 1970s. If you were to gauge replacements? You'd be talking about a massive amount of money (that they really don't have) and a minimum of twenty years.
Oh, I agree the nuke threat still exists....but beyond that, the Russians have gambled away impressing people with a potential hardware threat (and lost).
All of this triggering some odd phobia-like process....where people want to believe in WW III potential? That's the odd factor being played out.
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We have to go back to the old M.A.D. principal (Mutual Assured Destruction) So, I don't see a WWIII scenario coming. If Putin decides to use nukes, Moscow would be dust in a matter of seconds. (with a different Commander in Chief, the current POTUS wouldn't know which button to push) I participated in several Reforgers in the Command center and can tell you tactical nukes were used in all these exercises. (Based upon data at the time, the USSR would have used them with impunity)
At the end of the day, both Armies were pretty much annihilated.
I suspect throughout the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s....it was remarkable how we perceived the USSR/Russian military as a major force. Looking at the strategy adapted by Ukraine (probably handed to them by Brit/US special forces)....taking out tanks/APCs with anti-tank missiles...the ground threat is dismantled. Ground threat remaining? Conscripts with marginal training aren't capable of taking and controlling land. Russian Air Force? One gets the impression marginal training and maintenance are hindering them having any value.
The fact that this private militia operation that Prigozhin ran...was the only key thing of value? It just adds to the 'joke'.
When Putin finally passes on...someone is left with a 30-year mess on their hands to clean up and find some economic recovery plan which endangers stability for several decades.
This Russia phobia going on in Europe...is absolutely irrational, except for what you suggest...the nuke war scenario.
I often found the German public do not realize the US military was not only here as a deterrent against the USSR, they were also an occupational force. Germany had brought the world to war twice. This was not going to happen again, however, here we are again with the same government that allowed Hitler to power. Hence the rise of the AfD.
But, I digress, Trump's figures are wrong. 11 Countries in NATO (including the US and Germany) meet or exceed their fair share of GDP to defense. !9 NATO countries are within + or - 2% range with some exceeding (Poland for instance 3.9% of GDP) Just because the US exceeds the allotted 2% range (3.4% of GDP) should not require others to do so. The 2% range is, quite simple, a goal to reach, not carved in stone.
I would mostly agree.
No doubt...1945 to mid 1960s...it was purely an occupational force (much like the French were in 1919 (until 1930). You could tell in the late 70s...fair amount of German negative attitude building up (anti-nuke, pro-Russia) scene developing.
The day that transformed me...there were a number of bunkers around Ramstein, and in the mid 90s...summer day...here they were dismantling/tearing them down. I sat in a vault that afternoon with a couple of mid-grade officers, which we reflecting on the project, and we all agreed...cold war done, medals for nothing much being handed out, there was no purpose left except for this odd Balkans campaign (that never seemed to end).
There are continual inventions to say staying is of value. Most people are convinced that Germany has recovered from the 1930s but then this migration-era (2013 to now) has invented an odd crisis, with 20-percent of the nation attached to the AfD, right-wing thoughts, harsh economic reality setting in, pro-Russia feelings around, and some level of skepticism building up. Don't even bring property tax frustrations, impending bank crisis, and inability to solve the gov't budget business.
Add onto this...the US military can't recruit enough folks to fill the ranks, and this trend likely to continue through 2025/2026. This chatter that they may recruit non-Americans (promising citizenship) is likely a disaster in the making....just leads to exiting Europe but still attached to NATO (at least for an exercise or two each year).
Last year...I noticed locally (Wiesbaden region)...someone finally brought up...are there nuke shelters for city residents? City answered...mostly 'no'...there's likely one shelter that is still in some working order. Even if they had money, it'd take 20 years to get back into the shelter mentality and have a operational plan.
As for the Russians? For a 2-week period (over a year ago), it was noted that Russian conscripts were deployed around the Chernobyl 'plant'. They were mostly looking for stuff to cart off...officers kept them busy digging foxholes/trenches. Ukraine workers at the plant tried to remind them of radiation woes. About a month later, after some radiation poisoning/burning sensation reports...they packed up and re-deployed elsewhere. It was just a harsh reminder of the marginal training and poor leadership they have...still left from the Soviet era.
I was once worried about the Soviet threat until I was attached to an outfit in Graf whose sole purpose was the acquisition of Soviet weapons and equipment (mostly Black Market) In my tenure we bought a MIG, tank, BTR, several Ak-47s and a multitude of other equipment. All of which had one thing in common...they were junk. The tank and BTR had crap for engines and required constant maintenance. The MIG didn't have any straight bolt patterns, they appeared to have been built by 10 year olds, weak metal, I'm surprised they even flew. The AK-47 is a weapon that can be thrown in the mud, picked up, and it would fire, however the machining was so bad it was not accurate at all. It was only good for spewing bullets, nothing more. As far as I've seen, this process has not changed.
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