Using 2021 data, the total population of Germany is around 83-million (at the time). Presently, if you review newer data...the population is just over 84-million.
However in 2001, there were a total of 61,181,072 folks who were German-citizen eligible to vote. The folks who showed up and voted? Around 46,484,000. This means a turn-out of 76.6 percent of the public voted.
If you as a party fail to get 5-percent or more....you get no seats in the Bundestag. Well...out of 48 parties on the list....ONLY 7 parties met the 5-percent rule.
The party with the least votes? The 'Berg Party'....based out of Berlin and mostly known for being an anarchist group (don't take them serious). They managed 220-odd votes.
Who doesn't vote? There's no poll or data to draw upon. If you asked for humble guess....I would imagine around half of them don't see any of the top seven parties as offering anything, and the remaining 40-odd parties offer little to nothing to be worth voting for. In this aspect, yeah....I'd suggest that roughly two-million Turkish-Germans in Germany who hold citizenship aren't that hyped-up to vote.
Presently, projecting out to the fall of 2025 and the next federal election? Numbers are dismal for the FDP Party, the Linke Party, the newly created BWS Party, and the Free Voter Party (they hold no seats presently). By defining 'dismal'? If they can't reach 5-percent....they don't earn seats.
Odds of these three new political parties 'hacking' into the numbers, and getting 5-percent or more? I'd give it a 90-percent chance that at least one will be over the 5-percent rule, and a 50-percent chance that two parties walk into the next Bundestag.
3 comments:
I thought that 48 political parties was a bit excessive. Till I looked at GB, the Electoral Commission showed the number of registered political parties in Great Britain and Northern Ireland as 408
You can pursue the listing of elections (for past five federal elections) and see that typically....35 to 45 is average. When you crunch the numbers...90-percent of folks vote for the top seven parties. Ten percent make up the remaining 30-odd parties. Probably one-third of them never exceed 1,000 votes and are a regional collection of misfits.
I should also state that almost half-a-million Germans voted for a satire or fake party (failing to exceed 1.2-percent). If you tried to make sense out of this....these are mostly Germans who no longer take politics as a serious subject.
The Free Voter Party? Typically strong in southern Germany but weak everywhere else. They've upgraded their theme or message, and I suspect they might be close to the 4-to-5 percent level in 2025. If AfD falters or gets banned in some way....those 22-percent of folks will look for a close comparable party, and the Free Voter group might benefit.
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