1. If you had an election today....from the left spectrum (SPD, Greens, Linke, BSW)...you'd have a total of 39-percent of the vote (April poll).
Right spectrum.....56-percent (CDU, CSU, FDP, AfD).
But to form a coalition (avoiding AfD)....you have to partner up with some left-group, and dilute the 'win'.
2. As much as CDU-CSU claims to be conservative in nature....probably 20-percent are CINO (conservative in name only).
3. A topic that few politicians or journalists discuss? As of the end of 2025, the combined debt of German municipalities and municipal associations....adds up to around €196 billion.
They'd like for the federal gov't to find some 'gift' fund and help cure this 'ill'.
4. If things did spiral into a collapse of the coalition....a new election would merely reshuffle the current crew into different seats, but basically the same arrangement, and the same ending....a new collapse within two years (my humble belief).
The most you'd gain with a new election is Merz likely being told to exit, and you end up with a new Chancellor pretending to be a CDU conservative and lacking authority skills.
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