Saturday, April 11, 2026

If The Merz Coalition Collapsed?

 Well....you'd go to a new election.

Currently, with numbers....AfD would win with 26-percent....the CDU-CSU folks would likely get in the 24-to-25 percent range.  Rest?  Figure Greens at around 14-percent....Linke at 10-to-12 percent...SPD near 12-percent.  Maybe the FDP might get in there with 5-percent...enough to get seats.

AfD would be UNABLE to form a coalition....so after four weeks of failure....the CDU-CSU would get the chance to form a coalition.

To reach 50-percent or more....they'd have to partner with the Greens and FDP....a four-party 'mess'.

Merz in this leadership role?  No....I doubt it.  A whole new figure would emerge.

Lasting long?  With four coalition members?  No....I would imagine they'd last two years max.

All of a big sign for public trust?  Not really.

But if you were AfD....you could count on opposing this group, and gaining another five-to-eight points over that 26-point situation, and making the next election even more crappy for the CDU-CSU.

Sorry, if I seem overly pessimistic.

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